CL 444 Additional Problem Set

(Answers are provided in parenthesis after each problem)

A. Source & Dispersion:
1. A natural gas (consider it as pure methane) compressor station has several large compressors used to boost the
pressure in a cross country pipeline. The compressors are housed in a building which has a net free air volume
of 500,000 ft3. The ambient temperature is 800F. The building has a ventilation system designed to operate at
two rates: they are 6 and 20 times the building volume / hour, respectively. The building is normally ventilated
at the lower rate; however, if a release of the natural gas takes place inside and the concentration reaches 25%
of the lower flammability limit (LFL; vol% of gas in gas-air mixture), the ventilation switches to the higher
rate. Assume that there is a sudden leak of natural gas @ 10,000ft3/min (LFL = 5%). (a) How long will it be
when the higher ventilation rate is activated? (b) What would be the maximum possible concentration of the gas
in the building if the gas leak continues indefinitely? (c) Estimate the time till required for attaining the LFL.
(d) If the has leak is shut off when it reaches 25% LFL, how long will it take for it to drop to 5% LFL? (e)
Calculate the overpressure that may result if the released gas ignites and explodes when the concentration
reaches LFL. The heat of combustion for the gas is 1044BTU/ft3; for TNT it is 2000BTU/lb. (Note that due to
large volume of the gas leak the exit gas-air volume is higher than that of the air entering). [39s, 5.7vol%, 5.4
min, 13.4 min, 35 psi (=240.5 kPa)]
2. For leak of gas ‘A’ in a certain chemical plant, evacuation of personnel from an onsite administrative building
is needed if the concentration in the building exceeds 25ppm. The air ventilation rate (which sweeps in the
external air in which the gas is dispersed) through the building per hour is equal to the building volume. During
a certain incident, the ventilation is switched on when the concentration of A reaches 100 ppm outside the
building. The leak of A is detected and plugged within 5 minutes after ventilation startup. Outside the building
the concentration of A decays as C (t )  100  600t; t  hr ; C (t )  ppm , where t is the time after the leak is
plugged. Will an evacuation of the building be needed during this incident? Air within the building is perfectly
mixed. For the gas: 1ppm = 1.5mg/m3. [Ans: 14.4 ppm]
3. A spherical tank (diameter = 2.0m) is 80% full (by volume) of a hazardous liquid (density = 1000 kg/m3); and is
pressurized with nitrogen to 0.4 bar gauge (in the vapour space). The tank is situated centrally within a square
dike that is 1.0 m in depth and with side of 10 m length (see diagram below); and is supposed to contain any
leaking stream. The tank is supported on legs such that the tank bottom point is at a height of 2.0 m from the
horizontal bottom surface of the dike. If a 20-mm hole forms at a point 0.5m above the tank’s bottom-most
point and a horizontal spray occurs through the leak, determine whether the escaping stream will fall within the
dike. CD = 1.0. (Spray length = 0.87m, hence it falls out of the dike]

Tank

Dike

4. The following data pertains to toxicity of a certain substance as tested on a population of humans. The
population was exposed to various concentration of the substance for a fixed (constant) period of time,
following which the each individuals were classified as either “affected” or “not affected”. The results are:
Concentration (ppm) Total population size Number affected
10.2 100 88
7.7 98 84
5.1 92 48
3.8 96 32
2.6 100 12
Using the principle of Probit analysis and assuming that the dosage variable V = Ct, where C=ppm,
t=min, compute (i) the fraction of people likely to be affected by 6ppm, (ii) If 30% of the population is
found to be affected, what is the concentration? [67.5%, 7.35ppm].
5. For a continuous vapor release of a hazardous material an isopleth (contour of equal concentration) may be
defined based on a concentration specific to the material in question. For practical purpose, the rectangle
enveloping the isopleth may be taken as the area that needs to be evacuated of human beings. On an overcast
windy night with a wind blowing at 7 m/s, a hazardous material leak occurs at the rate of 3 gm/sec. If the

1
 3
maximum safe allowable exposure concentration is 0.05 mg/m , compute the maximum rectangular area
2
downwind that will need to be evacuated. [0.15km ]
6. An accident scenario has it that a continuous release will occur at Q kg/s. At a certain point (x, y) on the ground
level the ratio of the two concentration is: C (x,y) / C (x,o) = e-1. If y = 14.14 m, compute the value of ‘x
(distance directly downwind from release) for a stability class F. [246.2 m]
7. A certain chemical facility is located 1.0 km away from a residential area. 1000kg of Cl2 is released
instantaneously (wind speed 2m/s, bright sunny day). Calculate the distance to which the cloud travels till the
maximum concentration within the cloud drops to 1500 mg/m3. When the cloud reaches a residential area
1.0km from the release source, what is the cloud size based on a concentration level of 55mg/m3 at the cloud
periphery? [365m; 244m]
8. A chemical facility is 1.0 km from a residential locality. 1 ton of Cl2 is released accidentally in the plant (wind
velocity is 2m/s and the day is bright and sunny). A person exposed to more than 55 mg/m3 of Cl2 (i.e. Level of
Concern, LOC) for more than a minute may face adverse health consequence. Determine if this is expected by
calculating the time for which a person is likely to be exposed (i.e based on the LOC). [Ans: ~ 2min]
9. 0.5 kg of a toxic material is released instantaneously in the form of a vapour of negligible dimensions (initially)
from a container located at the ground level. A wind of velocity 9 km/hr prevails at the time of release, and the
day is very mildly sunny. (a) Calculate the maximum concentration of vapour that a person located 1.0 kg
downwind is subjected to. [Ans: 0.0027 gm/m3] (b) Calculate the total integrated dosage (TID) a person may be
subjected to if he is located at 1.0 km downwind and 20 m cross-wind. [Ans: 0.079 gm. s/m3] (c) Is this the
maximum possible dosage that the person in (b) may be subjected to? If not, what is a likely value? Assume
that the person’s location and the wind velocity are the two factors that only are invariant. [Ans: 0.287 gm.
s/m3]
T
(Total integrated dosage, TID   Cdt , where T = exposure duration)
0
10. A storage tank at the ground level in a certain plant can develop a leak and can release a hazardous gas
continuously at a steady rate. The safety engineer on the plant decides to investigate the consequences of this
release. In the process he chooses to specially define an average steady state concentration Cavg on the ground
level at any distance (say, x = X) downwind. He obtains Cavg by averaging the ground level concentration
between the crosswind limits y =  y* at any x = X. Further, he chooses to define the co-ordinates y =  y*, such
that at these point limits, the concentration is 1.0% of the maximum concentration (Cmax) of the gas on the line x
= X. During the course of his calculations the safety engineer finds that the ratio Cavg / Cmax is constant (with the
distance downwind). Confirm if his result is correct, and if so what is the value of this constant? [0.4] Assume
that for  > 2, erf ()  1.0.
11. Consider a continuous steady state source that emits a gaseous pollutant @ G (kg/s). The dispersion of the
pollutant in such a case may be modeled as occurring from a point source in an infinite medium (air) through
eddy (turbulent) diffusion. The flux J (kg/m2s) of the pollutant at any point at a radial distance ‘r’ from the
dC
source may then be given by: J   E , where E = isotropic eddy diffusion coefficient (m2/s) in the absence
dr
of any wind, C = pollutant concentration (kg/m3), r = radial distance from emission source (m). (i) Assuming a
spherical co-ordinate reference frame derive an expression for a steady state concentration ‘C’ at any radial
distance ‘R’ from the source, in terms of G, E, and R. (ii) Consider a vent stack of height 125m emitting a
pollutant @ 1kg/s in air of negligible velocity. The concentration at a point 75m from the stack base and 25m
above ground is measured to be 8gm/m3. Estimate the value of the eddy diffusion coefficient. [0.08m2/s].
12. Consider an instantaneous release of ‘M’ kg of a hazardous gas in air at an elevated level in a situation when
the wind velocity is negligibly low. The concentration of the gas at a given time ‘t’ is required at any location
with coordinates (x, y, z) with respect to the release point (x: downwind; y: crosswind; z: vertical distance). A
student solves the problem and provides a solution in the following form:
M   x 2  y 2  z 2 
C ( x, y , z, t )  exp   
8( Kt ) n   4 Kt  
Using a differential material balance equation determine what value of the exponent ‘n’ renders the
solution correct. Note that in such cases as above, since the mass transport generally occurs by eddy
(turbulent) diffusion only, one uses an eddy diffusion coefficient ‘K’ (rather than the molecular diffusion
coefficient) to characterize the dispersion phenomenon. [1.5]

2
B. Fires and Explosions:
13. In a certain plant a propane vapour cloud explosion (energy of explosion = 1000 cal/gm) occurs resulting in
eardrum rupture of 60% of the workers located at an average distance of 20m from the explosion source.
Calculate the amount of vapour that exploded. [Ans: 177 kg]
14. A tank containing 28tons of hexane explodes as a fireball. If a person is 135m along the ground from the
fireball center and is unable to take cover, what is the chance of his fatality? Humidity partial
2
pressure=2820N/m ; Hexane combustion energy = 45000kJ/kg (of which 25% is radiated). [88%]
5
15. For a 10 kg propane fireball compute the distance along the ground at which no fatality is likely.
Transmissivity = 95%. Propane combustion energy = 46350kJ/kg (of which 25% is radiated). [333m].
16. The peak overpressure (P, psi) expected due to vapour cloud explosion is given by: ln P = 5.2 – 1.8ln R, where
R = distance (ft) form the point of explosion. The plant employs 100 people who work in an area from 300 –
500ft from the potential explosion point. Estimate (i) the number of fatalities expected due to lung haemorrhage
and (ii) number of people who may suffer eardrum rupture.[none, ~ 10]
2
17. A hexane pool fire after a spill. The heat flux incident on a target at 40m from the pool center is 10kW/m .
2
Calculate the pool diameter. Pool burning rate = 0.15kg/m s; 35% of the combustion energy is radiated as heat.
2
Humidity = 2820N/m . [12.4m]
18. A hexane pool fire occurs in a 30 m diameter tank dike. A heat-sensitive structure is located 10m from the edge
of the dike. If a water spray system is used to deluge the structure when the pool fire occurs, compute the
approximate water spray rate needed so that there is no rise in temperature of the structure. Pool burning rate =
2
0.15 kg/m s; Hexane Combustion Energy = 45000 kJ/kg (of which 40% is emitted as radiation); Air
2
transmissivity = 0.85; Water ΔHvap = 2260 J/gm.[0.091 kg/m s].

C. Fault and Event Tree Analysis

19. The brake system of an automobile consists of independent front and rear brakes, and thus is a redundant
system. An accident caused by the brake failure of an automobile requires the failure of both the front and rear
brake systems, as well as the inability of the driver to take proper evasive action (for which the failure per
demand = 0.5). The failure of each brake system could be through the failure of the brake lining (λ = 0.1/yr), or
master cylinder (λ = 0.1/yr), or insufficient brake fluid (λ = 0.1/yr), or wheel cylinders. Furthermore, for both
and front wheel systems there are two cylinders: for left and right wheel (for each, λ = 0.2/yr). Draw a fault tree
diagram for the top events “Automotive Brake Failure Accident”; and hence calculate its probability for the first
year of life. [0.1455].
20. An administrative building basement for a chemical plant is equipped with a pumping system that consists of a
primary pump (P1) and a back-up pump (P2). The basement will be flooded if the rainstorm is so heavy that the
rate of inflow of storm water exceeds the normal pumping capacity of the pump system. However, even in case
where inflow is lower than normal pumping capacity, rainstorms will lead to flooding if the pump system is not
operative when required. Both P1 and P2 can malfunction (i.e., fail) because of internal mechanical failures. In
addition, P1 uses an utility power supply which can fail as well. In the event P1 is not operating P2 is
automatically activated (the two never operate simultaneously) and is run by a battery. The P2 pump will fail
(apart from internal mechanical failures) if the battery is drained. The battery will be drained if both the period
of utility power failure and the period of storm water inflow exceed the battery capacity. (a) Prepare a fault tree
diagram with the top event: Flooding of the basement. (b) Using a reliability block diagram compute the
probability that there will be a basement flood within a year from the start. Data: The mechanical failure rates of
the pumps P1 and P2 are 0.1 and 0.2/yr respectively, while that of the utility power source is 0.15/yr. The other
event probabilities (for one year period) are as in the table below. [0.1]
Event Probability per year
Rainwater Inflow > Normal Pumping Capacity 0.1
Utility Power failure Period > Battery Capacity 0.25
Rainwater Inflow Period > Battery Capacity 0.2

21. The reactor in which a highly exothermic reaction is being carried out is at a risk of thermal runaway in the
event of a failure of the cooling coil system installed inside the reactor. In case of such a coolant failure, a dump
valve at the reactor bottom opens (for reactor shutdown) to empty the reactor in case a low coolant flow is
detected or high reactor temperature is detected, each detection being by two independent detection systems.
The coolant system failure can occur if a pump on the coolant line fails, or if the line is blocked, or if the water

3
 supply is exhausted. The protective system may be inoperative when both the detection systems fail at the same
time, or if the system shutdown fails owing to dump valve failing shut. Using reliability diagram, compute the
frequency of a runaway situation (i.e. once in how many years?) occurring. [13.3 years]
Failure Type Failure Rate (/yr)
Coolant Pump failure 0.2
Coolant Line blocked 0.01
Coolant Supply Tank empty 0.1
Dump valve fails shut 0.1
Low coolant flow detection failure 0.15
High Temperature detection failure 0.15
22. The overtopping of a dam resulting from a heavy rainstorm over a water-reservoir could lead to several
subsequent failure paths. If another dam is located further downstream, the overtopping of the first (upper) dam
would intensify the flow in the lower reservoir downstream. In addition, the overflow from the upper dam may
induce landslides along the river bank between the two dams, and this may also cause overflow at the lower
dam. Consider the initiating event ‘heavy rainfall’ which may occur once in two years. The probability of each
subsequent event is 20%, the sequence of which is as follows: (i) overtopping of upper dam (ii) landslides
between dams, and (iii) overtopping of lower dam. Compute the frequency of a flood beyond the lower dam
because of its overtopping. [0.1/yr]

D. Reliability and Availability:

23. A component has a cumulative failure probability F(t) and a hazard rate λ(t). In order to improve reliability it is
proposed to use two of these components in parallel configuration. Show that the improvement can be
expressed as: K = {1+F(t)}/ 2 F(t), where K = old failure rate / new failure rate.
-
24. A population of components is described by the following cumulative failure function: F(t) = 1 – (1 + 0.001 t)
1
; (a) Calculate the failure (hazard) rate for the component at t = 10,000 hrs (b) What is the average failure
(hazard) rate between 1000 are 10,000 hrs? (c) If 5 components, each having this life distribution, are starting
operation together, what is the probability that they suffer no failures in the first 1000 hrs? [0.000019, 0.00019,
1/32]
25. A generator is placed in standby redundancy to a main generator. The hazard rate for each is 0.05 / hr. Compute
the probability that the system will have failed by 10 hrs of operation, assuming (a) the sensing the switching
device is 100% reliable in the event of failure of the main generator. (b) If λ (main generator) = 0.005 / hr and X
(standby generator) = 0.001 / hr, and the sensing-switching device is 90% reliable, compute reliability at 10 hrs
(c) the MTTF? [0.1. 0.995, 1100hrs]
26. The failure probability density function of a certain device is described by the following equation: f(t) = bt exp(-
2
bt /2), b = constant, t = hrs. The reliability of a system comprised of two such identical devices connected in
–1
series is e at 1000 hrs of operation. Calculate the device MTTF. [12533 hrs]
-3 -3
27. A system consists of two devices with hazard rates λ1 = 10 /hr and λ2 = 2 x10 /hr, connected in parallel. At
least one needs to be operational for system success.(i) Calculate the instantaneous hazard rate λs for the system
at t = 200 hrs (ii) Show that λs (t →α) = min (λ1, λ2).
28. Consider a two-unit standby system. The system fails only when the standby unit fails before the failed one (the
normally active unit) is restored to operation by repair. At state ‘0’ both the units are good, at state ‘1’ one unit
has failed (the active unit), and at state ‘2’ both units have failed. λi denotes rate of departure by failure from
state ‘i’, and µi rate of departure from state ‘i’ through repair. Show that the following set of equations describe
the behaviour of Pi(t), the rate of change of Pi(t), which is the problem of finding the state of system at ‘i’ at any
time t. Obtain the R(t) function for the system. Note that for reliability expression the total system failure
probability cannot be considered. Consider that both units have hazard rate λ/hr and repair rate µ/hr. Also
consider that λ=µ. (i) Calculate the system reliability for a time t = 1/10λ. (ii) If the failed units are not repaired
what is the system reliability at t = 1/10λ? [0.992, 0.991].
29. A fog lamp on a car, which is not normally switched on, is subject to failure of the bulb and wiring which
would cause the fag lamp to fail to light when required to do so. Such failures occur at a mean rate of 1 failure
every 38 weeks, are not directly revealed by state, on average, in existence for a mean period of 2 weeks, until
rectification. If the chance of the driver running into a fog is 1 in 100, what is the chance that the fog light will
–4
not come on at the time it is required? [5x10 ]

4
30. An engine is to be designed to have a minimum reliability of 0.8 and a minimum availability of 0.98 over a
3 -4
period of 2x10 hrs. Determine the MTTR and λ of the engine. [7.3 days, 1.115 x 10 /hr]
– bt
31. The early failure rate of a device is: λ = ae ; where a, b are constants. Determine the probability of survival of
– bT – bt
the component till t hrs given that it has survived till T hrs. [ exp {-(a/b)e (1 – e )}]
32. An engineering firm uses a computer. It is observed that the average trouble-free service for the computer is 20
days. During a breakdown it takes, on the average, 2 days to restore the computer to its operating condition. If
the computer is in operating condition now, determine the overall probability that the computer will not fail
during the 3rd, 7th and the 10th week of operation. [0.63]
33. A pipeline is susceptible to corrosion depending on environmental conditions. Suppose the corrosive parts of
the pipeline appear as in figure below, where C and C+ denotes the corroded and non-corroded sections along
the pipeline. The mean lengths of the corroded and non-corroded sections are 100 ft and 400 ft respectively.
Ten sections each of 10 ft length are randomly selected along the pipeline for inspection. What is the
probability of finding no corrosion? [0.08]
34. Consider a system with ‘n’ components that are in parallel, each characterized by the same failure rate and
repair rate λ and μ/time respectively. If Pi denotes the steady state probability that there are ‘i’ failed
components, find an expression for that Pn / P0 in terms of λ and μ. [(λ/μ)n]
35. Consider a parallel system with two generators operating simultaneously to supply power to a section of a
process plant. Under normal load conditions the failure rate of each generator is 0.01/day. However, it is found
from experience that if one of the generators fails during operation the failure rate of the other (working)
generator increases to 0.1/day due to increased load placed on it. Consider that the system states are denoted as
follows:

State Generator 1 Generator 2

1 Operating Operating
2 Failed Operating
3 Operating Failed
4 Failed Failed

The system fails only if both generators fail. No repair is performed till the system fails. If both generators are
operative initially, compute the mean time to failure for the system. [60 days]
36. A certain device has two independent failure states ‘1’, and ‘2’, with the following hazard and repair rates: 1 =
0.05/day, 2 = 0.05/day,  1 = 0.5/day,  2 = 0.5/day. If the device is in the operating condition at t=0, estimate
numerically (i) the probability that the device is in state 1 at the end of the second day (ii) the number of days it
is unavailable over a period of a year. [5/6, 60 days]
37. Consider a system of two components which operate in a redundant mode (one hot and one cold standby). The
failure rates of the two components are 0.5/yr (hot) and 1.0/yr (cold) respectively. (i) Find the system reliability
at the end of 3 yrs. (ii) What is the mean time to failure for the system? [0.396, 3 years]
38. A liquid Cl2 tank maintained at a constant internal pressure of 7x105 N/m2 may leak via a 25mm or a 50 mm
diameter circular hole, the probability of the leaks being 10-4 and 10-5 respectively. Assuming that 75% of the
Cl2 flashes into vapour, construct the relevant Individual Risk (IR) contours around the tank. Data: Leak
duration = 30 min; liquid Cl2 density = 1425 kg/m3; Isotropic Wind Speed = 5m/s (class B); Discharge
coefficient = 0.9; 100% fatality occurs to those exposed to LC50 dosage of Cl2; neglect the effect of Cl2 liquid
head above the leak). [The IR contours are given by: at 528 m IR= 4.2x10-7/yr, and at 255 m , IR= 4.62x10-
6
/yr]
39. A smart material is manufactured by a process where the input chemicals may vary in composition due to which
the inherent allowable stress (Y, in units of kg/cm2 ) of the polymer varies according to the probability density
function given by: f (Y )  5x10 7 y , where, 0  Y  2000kg / cm 2 . However, when used in a structural member,
the material may be subjected to an actual operational stress (X) which varies according to the probability
 x2
density function given by: f ( X )  9 ; where, 0  X  1000kg / cm 2 . If the operational reliability of the
10
structural member is found to be 0.85, compute the value of the constant β [3.0].

5
 40. Losses due to large fires can often be modeled using a log-normal distribution. Suppose that the average loss
due to fire for buildings of a certain type is Rs 25 lacs and the standard deviation of the loss is Rs 10lacs.
Determine the probability that a large fire results in losses exceeding Rs 40lacs. [0.0789]
41. An organization has to make a decision between two different processes used for manufacturing a certain safety
device. Process A costs Rs. 4000/- per unit to manufacture the device, while process B costs Rs. 4050/-. The
device from each of the processes have exponential failure distribution such that:
1 1
f A (t )  exp   t 200  ; f B (t )  exp   t 300 ; t  days.
200 300
Because of a warranty clause, if the device (from either manufacturing process) lasts less than 400 days in use,
the manufacturer must bear an additional cost (as penalty) of Rs. 1000 /unit (irrespective of the manufacturing
process used). Compute the difference in the effective cost of manufacture of the device by the two processes
determine which one of the two is the preferred process. [Rs 78/-, process B]
42. As part of a refinery wide annual maintenance program a plant engineer checks the ‘health’ of a large number of
pressure transmitters using a certain test protocol. Based on previous experience about 70% of the transmitters
are likely to be in a good condition at any time. However, the test protocol is not perfectly reliable. The
probability that a good transmitter will pass the test is 80%, and that of a not-good transmitter passing the test is
10%. (i) What is the probability that if a transmitter has passed a test, it is indeed a good transmitter? (ii)
Suppose that the plant engineer tests a critical transmitter twice consecutively. If it is passes the test both the
times, what is the probability that it is indeed a good transmitter? [0.95. 0.993]
43. The storage tank system shown in figure below is used to store a process feedstock. Overfilling is a common
problem for such systems. In case of an uncontrolled overfilling, the tank would be over-pressurized leading to
an eventual rupture and release of tank material. A consequence and effect estimate shows that the total loss to
the company in the event of the accident is Rs. 1.0million. Past records show that such dangerous overfilling
may be initiated @ 4/yr.

To prevent such accidental overfilling the tank is equipped with a high level alarm following which the operator
may close the inlet valve (V1) to stop further inflow to the tank. The operator always responds only if the alarm
sounds. A risk analysis team is considering installation of an additional high-level automated shutdown which
will work in the event the operator fails to shutdown V1. The automated high-level shutdown system would
work by shutting down the solenoid valve (V2). The cost of the installing this automated system is Rs 0.2
million, with an additional annual maintenance cost of Rs 0.02million. Considering a life of 10 years for the
automated system compute the benefit (= saved monetary risk) / cost? [10.9]
Assume that: System cost + (Annual maintenace cost)  System life
System Probability of failure per demand
High level alarm 0.01
Operator stops inflow to tank 0.1
High level automated shutdown 0.001