The Presidential Election in Argentina (August 2019) PDF

THE PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION IN ARGENTINA
NATIONWIDE POLL
August 6th, 2019
Synopsis Consultores Piedras 1141 5to. “E” ( C1140ABE) – Ciudad A. de Buenos Aires - Argentina
SAMPLE SUMMARY (NATIONWIDE)
SAMPLE: 2.822 OBSERVATIONS

GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE (% DISTRIBUTION) GENDER DISTRIBUTION
16
7
19
5
20
12
11
14
15
51.8 48.2
21
9
10 2 18
3
4 23 24
1
6
MEN
HOMBRES
MUJERES
WOMEN
27 26
17
8 AGE DISTRIBUTION
13
25
14.7
30.6
22 18,8
35.9
28
29
16-29 years
Entre 18 y 29 años 30-49 years
Entre 30 y 49 años
50-64 years
Entre 50 y 64 años Más de 65 años
More than 65 years
EDUCATION LEVEL DISTRIBUTION
18.7 24.2
CITIES
11.2
21.1
24.8
Elementary School (C/I)

Primario Comp. o Incomp. Secundario Incompleto
Middle School incompleted
Secundario Completo
Middle School completed
Terciario o Univers. Incomp.
High School incompleted
High School or College Completed
Terciario o Univers. Comp.
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@SynopsisConsult | PÁGINA 1
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
o  With 5 days left for the primary elections, we continue seeing that most of the votes are going to the two main
political forces (the government’s Juntos por el Cambio and the opposition’s Frente de Todos), which together
account for 78.8% of the voting intention, with high chances of exceeding 80% when making the projection of
undecided voters for this scenario.
o  With an advantage of +3.8%, the opposition’s Frente de Todos is still ahead; and for the first time since the
announcement of candidate lists (June), its lead has increased (in July, it was +2.5%). This is the result of an
improvement in the voting intention for Frente de Todos (+0.7%), which has reached 41.3%, and also stems from a
drop in the intention to vote for the government (-0.6%), which now sits at 37.5%. There is 4.9% without a voting
intention, out of which 2.5% expresses that they will cast a blank ballot and 2.4% say they have not yet defined who
to vote for (undecided).
o  If we were to make a statistical projection of the undecided voters, the Frente de Todos would reach a voting
intention of 42.3%, while the government’s Juntos por el Cambio would get 38.4%, with a difference of +3.9% in
favour of the Alberto Fernández-Cristina Kirchner ticket.
o  The scenario of a ballotage continues to show a very close-fought result. While 46.5% say they would vote for
Mauricio Macri in a runoff voting, 46.1% say they would vote for Alberto Fernández. When making the projection for
the 7.4% of the undecided voters, Alberto Fernández ends with a voting intention of 50.2% while Mauricio Macri
ends with one of 49.8%.
o  As for rejection levels, the latest poll has shown a slight fall in the level of rejection towards a win for Alberto
Fernández (0.3%), with the overall level of rejection being 48.3%, while the rejection levels for a government victory
increased (+0.6%) and ended at 45.2%.
o  In the Province of Buenos Aires, Frente de Todos is still showing a broader lead over Juntos por el Cambio than at a
national level. The intention to vote for Alberto Fernández reaches 44.5% against 35% for Mauricio Macri. The gap
widened, going from July’s 8.6% to August’s 9.5%.
o  The level of undecided voters is higher in the Province of Buenos Aires (11.6%) than at a national level (4.8%). Out of
the latter, almost 60% of those undecided are voters of Lavagna, Espert and Other Candidates. This explains why in
the Province of Buenos Aires, the governor candidates belonging to other political forces that are in third, fourth and
fifth place register a lower voting intention than the presidential candidates they are running with.
o  Among those competing for Governor of te Province of Buenos Aires, Axel Kicillof has a voting intention of 43% (with
almost 97% of the voters also being those who would choose Alberto Fernández), while María Eugenia Vidal has a
voting intention of 40.4%, in a scenario in which those without a voting intention reach 11.7%.
o  The question concerning the Province of Buenos Aires is knowing the consequences of the trickle-down effect that
the party ballot paper can have on two crucial factors:
1)  Finding out if the voters that choose Vidal and not Macri will cut the ballot and if, when voting for the president,
these votes trickle down into the other categories (the same trickle-down effect could take place with those
voting for Alberto Fernández and not Axel Kicillof);
2)  Finding out if the undecided voters backing Lavagna, Espert and Others in the Province of Buenos Aires opt for
any of the two main Governor candidates (Kicillof or Vidal) or if their votes trickle down to the governor
candidates running with Lavagna, Espert and Others.
o  These factors can lead to different outcomes. The way people cut the party ballot paper can give way to a result that
differs from the projections that stem from the voting intention polls.

2019 ELECTORAL
SCENARIOS

2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (Primary Election)
If the presidential primary (PASO) elections were today, which of these

candidates would you vote for? AUGUST 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL.
EVOLUTION LAST WEEKS
41.3 50
37.5 40
30
20
10
0
28-JUN 16-JUL 6-AUG
6-AGO
8.5
3.8 2.2 4.9
1.8
M. Macri
A. Fernandez R. Lavagna J. L. Espert N. del Caño
A otra fórmula
Other Ns/Nc
Indecisos
Undecided
DK/NA
M. A. Pichetto C. Kirchner J. M. Urtubey L. Rosales R. del Plaa Ticket
SCENARIO BY GENDER
AUGUST 2019
MEN 37.1 38.6 8.7 6.2 5.4
WOMAN 37.8 43.8 8.2 4.4
SCENARIO BY AGE
AUGUST 2019
16-29 years 28.6 47.8 5.8 6.5 4.4
30-49 years 33.3 43.4 11.6 5.8
50-64 years 45.6 37.4 8.1 3.5
65 or more years 55.6 27.5 6.9 5.4
SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
AUGUST 2019
City of Buenos Aires 42.8 32.5 7.8 4.3 6.9
Grand Buenos Aires 33.6 45.5 8.3 4.9 4.0
Center of the Country 43.4 39.7 7.4 2.8 2.9
North of the Country 31.9 41.7 9.9 5.4 7.3
South of the Country 34.5 43.7 9.5 1.3 5.9
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
SCENARIO BY EDUCATION LEVEL
AUGUST 2019
Elementary School 22.6 38.9 18.9 3.4 13.3
Middle School 38.1 45.9 6.0 3.1 2.2
College 48.5 36.3 3.8 5.3 2.1
MACRI FERNÁNDEZ LAVAGNA ESPERT DEL CAÑO OTHER
OTRO INDECISOS
UNDECIDED
NATIONWIDE Ι SAMPLE OF 2,822 OBSERVATIONS Ι AUGUST 1ST- 3RD, 2019

candidates would you vote for? AUGUST 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL
You do not know why you are
undecided or will vote blank?
41.3
37.5
51.0 49.0
Indeciso
UNDECIDED Voto en Blanco
BLANCK
8.5
3.8 4.9
2.2 1.8
Other DK/NA
M. Macri
A. Fernandez R. Lavagna J. L. Espert N. del Caño
A otra fórmula
Ticket Indecisos
M. A. Pichetto C. Kirchner J. M. Urtubey L. Rosales R. del Plaa

candidates would you vote for? AUGUST 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL
WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS
42.3
38.4
8.7
3.9 2.3 1.9 2.5
M. Macri A. Fernandez R. Lavagna J. L. Espert N. del Caño Other

A otra fórmula Blank vote
Voto en Blanco

2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO MACRI-FERNÁNDEZ
If the presidential elections were today and the outcome is defined in a ballotage
between Mauricio Macri and Alberto Fernández -CFK, who would you vote for?
AUGUST 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL
46,5 46.1
MACRI-PICHETTO FERNÁNDEZ-CFK
49.8 UNDECIDED 50.2
7.4
SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)

Escenario base
Baseline Scenario 46.5 7.4 46.1
Según tipo indecisos
By Undecided Type 46.5 3.3 4.1 46.1
Proyección indecisos
Projection for Undecided
Mauricio Macri Indecisos (Macri)
Undecided (Macri) Indecisos Undecided (Fernandez)
Undecided Indecisos (Fernández) Alberto Fernández
MACRI-FERNANDEZ SCENARIO BY AGE GROUP

16-29 years
16 y 29 años 38.7 7.3 53.9
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 43.0 6.3 50.7
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 53.5 8.2 38.3
65 or + years
65 años o mas 62.0 9.5 28.4
MACRI-FERNANDEZ SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC AREA
City of Buenos Aires 52.7 5.7 41.6
Grand Buenos Aires 40.2 4.7 55.1
Center of the Country
49.2 7.5 43.3
North of the Country
44.8 12.5 42.7
South of the Country
(Patagonia and Cuyo) 41.3 6.1 52.5
Macri - Pichetto Undecided
Indecisos Fernandez –Kirchner
46.5 46.1
49.8 UNDECIDED 50.2
7.4
SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)

Escenario base
Baseline Scenario 46.5 7.4 46.1
Según tipo indecisos
By Undecided Type 46,5 3.3 4.1 46.1
Proyección indecisos
Projection for Undecided
Mauricio Macri Indecisos (Macri)
Undecided (Macri) Indecisos Undecided (Fernandez)
Undecided Indecisos (Fernández) Alberto Fernández
EVOLUTION OF BALLOTAGE´S SCENARIO BETWEN MACRI-CFK/FERNANDEZ (MARCH 2018-JAUGUST 2019 )

60
50
COMIENZOS DE LA CRISIS CAMBIARIA
40
30
20
10
0
MAR ´18 JUN. ´18 SEP. ´18 OCT.´18 DIC.´18 MAR.´19 ABR.´19 MAY.´19 JUN. I ´19 JUN. II ´19 JUL. ´19 AGO. ´19
MM / MM-MAP CFK / AF-CFK INDECISOS
46.5 46.1
49.8 UNDECIDED 50.2
7.4
WHERE DO THE VOTES THAT EACH OF THEM RECEIVE IN THE RUN-OFF COME FROM?
% ACCORDING TO THE VOTING INTENTION REGISTERED IN THE PRIMARY ELECTION’S SCENARIO.
MACRI-PICHETTO LAVAGNA FERNÁNDEZ-KIRCHNER LAVAGNA

URTUBEY URTUBEY
75.3 10.9 82.3 6.1
UNDECIDED
5.5
ESPERT
ROSALES
6.3
3.4
DEL
UNDE CAÑO
CIDED DEL
PLA

ESPERT 1.6
4.2 ROSALES

ELECTORAL DYNAMIC
ACCORDING TO REJECT LEVELS
OF CANDIDATES

2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (Rejection Levels)
Out of these candidates, who would you NOT want to win the elections?
45.2 48.3
1.9 1.1 3.6

Macri Fernandez Lavagna Otra fórmula
Other Ticket No sabe
DK/NA
Undecided
Pichetto Kirchner Urtubey
EVOLUTION OF THE REJECTION LEVEL (WHO WOULD YOU NOT WIN THE ELECTIONS)
APRIL 2019- AUGUST 2019
50
49
48
47
46
45
44
43 Mauricio Macri
42 CFK (hasta Mayo)/AF (desde Mayo)
41
ABRIL 2019
APRIL 2019 MAYO 2019
MAY 2019 JUNIO I 2019
JUNE I 2019 JUNIO II 2019
JUNE II 2019 JULIO 2019
JULY 2019 AGOSTO 2019
AUGUST 2019
REJECT BY AGE
AUGUST 2019
16-29 years 51.8 40.3 3.3
30-49 years 49.2 46.6 2.0
50-64 years 40.3 52.7 4.5
27.7 63.5 6.9
65 or + years
REJECT BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
AUGUST 2019
City of Buenos Aires 42.1 53.8
Grand Buenos Aires 51.1 42.8
Center of the Country 42.3 51.7
North of the Country 47.3 44.4
South of the Country 48.9 43.4
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
MACRI-PICHETTO FERNÁNDEZ-KIRCHNER LAVAGNA-URTUBEY OTHER TICKET
OTRA FÓRMULA UNDECIDED
NO SABE
@SynopsisConsult | PÁGINA10
2019 BUENOS AIRES
ELECTORAL SCENARIOS

(GOVERNOR ELECTION)


CHARACTERIZATION OF THE SAMPLE (PBA)
GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION GENDER DISTRIBUTION
50.5 49.5
HOMBRES MUJERES
AGE DISTRIBUTION
15.0
30.4
19.5
35.0
16-29 years
Entre 18 y 29 años 30-49 years
Entre 30 y 49 años
50-64 years
Entre 50 y 64 años More than 65 years
Más de 65 años
EDUCATION LEVEL DISTRIBUTION
35.1 20.5 23.0 11.0 10.4

Primario Completo o Incompleto
Elementary School (C/I) Secundario Incompleto
Middle School incompleted Secundario Completo
Middle School completed

Terciario o Universitario Incompleto
High School incompleted High School or College Completed
Terciario o Universitario Completo


candidates would you vote for? AUGUST 2019 – PROVINCE OF BUENOS AIRES
60
44.5 50
40
35.1 30
20
10
0
16-JUL 6-AGO
7.8
4.0 2.6 4.7
1.3
M. Macri A. Fernandez R. Lavagna J. L. Espert N. del Caño
A otra fórmula
Other Undecided
Ns/Nc
Indecisos
SCENARIO BY GENTLE
AUGUST 2019 – PROVINCE OF BUENOS AIRES
Hombre
MEN 35.9 41.0 8.5 6.5 5.1
Mujer
WOMEN 34.0 47.9 7.1 4.7
SCENARIO BY AGE
16-29 years 25.8 50.9 7.2 6.2 5.5
30-49 years 28.8 51.4 7.8 6.0
50-64 years 37.2 40.0 11.4 3.1
65 or + years 65.0 21.1 4.4 3.4

GBA 30.9 47.2 8.9 4.7
REST OF
INTERIOR 42.8 39.2 5.7 5.3
PROVINCE
AUGUST 2019 - PROVINCE OF BUENOS AIRES
Elementary School
Primarios 28.5 45.5 9.5 4.2 8.7
Middle School
Secundarios 35.7 51.6 3.9 3.6 2.8
College
Terciarios 44,0 39.8 3.5 4.7 3.0
MACRI FERNÁNDEZ LAVAGNA ESPERT DEL CAÑO OTHER
OTRO INDECISOS
UNDECIDED
BUENOS AIRES Ι 1.371 OBSERVATIONS Ι AUGUST 1ST- 3RD, 2019
If the Governor primary elections were today, which of these candidates

would you vote for? AUGUST 2019 –PROVINCE OF BUENOS AIRES
45
43.0 43
40.4
41
39
37
35
16-JUL 6-AGO
6-AUG
11.7
2.0 2.4 0.5
María E. Axel Eduardo Christian Otro candidato
Other Ns/Nc
Undecided
Vidal Kiciloff Bali Buca Castillo Ticket
SCENARIO BY GENTLE
Hombre 41.3 40.3 13.7
MEN
Mujer
WOMEN 39.8 45.7 9.6
SCENARIO BY AGE
16-29 years 31.2 50.1 14.0
30-49 years 32.7 50.2 13.7
50-64 years 46.0 36.9 11.9
65 or + years 70.6 20.0

GBA 36.9 45.6 11.9
REST OF
INTERIOR 47.4 38.0 11.1
PROVINCE
AUGUST 2019 - PROVINCE OF BUENOS AIRES
Elementary School 34.9 41.9 15,9
Middle School 39.8 51.3 5,8
College 51.1 39.5 5,1
VIDAL KICILLOF BALI BUCA CASTILLO OTRO
OTHER UNDECIDED
NS/NC
VOTING TRANSFER NATION/PROVINCE
Voting transfer between President and Governor

AUGUST 2019 – PROVINCE OF BUENOS AIRES - (SANKEY DIAGRAM)
35.0 40.4
43.0
44.5
Origin of Vidal's vote according to the President's vote

% OF THE TOTAL DE INTENTION TO VOTE FOR MEV
ESPERT
OTROS

POLLING METHODOLOGY
FIELDWORK DATE (NACIONAL SAMPLE): 1st- 3rd, AUGUST 2019 .

AREA: Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (AMBA by its Spanish acronym) and main cities in the country’s provinces
(La Plata, Mar del Plata, Bahía Blanca, Tandil, San Nicolás, Rosario, Paraná, Comodoro Rivadavia, San M. de
Tucumán, Santa Fe, Córdoba, Mendoza, Salta, Corrientes, Neuquén, Santa Rosa, La Rioja, Catamarca, San Luis, San
Juan, Posadas, Resistencia, Santiago del Estero, Formosa, Usuahia, Río Gallegos and Bariloche)..
SAMPLE DESIGN: Stratified probabilistic sample by population’s sex, age and level of education.
Weighted by Sex, Age, and Education Level according to census data.
UNIVERSE: Population of more than 16 years old, living in private households with a land-line
phone in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area and the main cities of the nation’s provinces.
SAMPLE SIZE : 2,822 observations.

COLLECTION TOOL: Structured Questionnaire
SURVEY SYSTEM: Telephone survey (IVR - Interactive Voice Response).
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL: 95.5%.
MARGIN OF ERROR: +/- 2.0.

FIELDWORK DATE (PROVINCE OF BUENOS AIRES): 1st- 3rd, AUGUST 2019 .
AREA: Grand Buenos Aires, main cities in the Province of Buenos Aires (La Plata, Mar del Plata, Bahía

Blanca, Tandil, San Nicolás,) and cities with less than 50,000 people (Campana, San Vicente, Luján,
Trenque Lauquen, Coronel Suarez, Olavarría, 25 de Mayo, La Costa).
SAMPLE DESIGN: Stratified probabilistic sample by population’s sex, age and level of education.
Weighted by Sex, Age, and Education Level according to census data.
UNIVERSE: Population of more than 16 years old, living in private households with a land-line
phone in the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area and the main cities of the nation’s provinces.
SAMPLE SIZE : 1,371 observations.

COLLECTION TOOL: Structured Questionnaire
SURVEY SYSTEM: Telephone survey (IVR - Interactive Voice Response).
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL: 95.5%.
MARGIN OF ERROR: +/- 2.6.
The total or partial reproduction of this report is prohibited without the express authorization of Synopsis
Consultores. The misuse of this information may be achieved by actions for damages that the dissemination of
this information may cause. Synopsis Consultores ©


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THE PRESIDENTIAL

SAMPLE: 2.822 OBSERVATIONS

EDUCATION LEVEL DISTRIBUTION

Elementary School (C/I)

August 6th, 2019 synopsis.com.ar synopsis.com.ar

August 6th, 2019 synopsis.com.ar synopsis.com.ar

August 6th, 2019 synopsis.com.ar synopsis.com.ar

If the presidential primary (PASO) elections were today, which of these

If the presidential primary (PASO) elections were today, which of these

If the presidential primary (PASO) elections were today, which of these

M. Macri A. Fernandez R. Lavagna J. L. Espert N. del Caño Other

NATIONWIDE Ι SAMPLE OF 2,822 OBSERVATIONS Ι AUGUST 1ST- 3RD, 2019

SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)

MACRI-FERNANDEZ SCENARIO BY AGE GROUP

SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)

EVOLUTION OF BALLOTAGE´S SCENARIO BETWEN MACRI-CFK/FERNANDEZ (MARCH 2018-JAUGUST 2019 )

MACRI-PICHETTO LAVAGNA FERNÁNDEZ-KIRCHNER LAVAGNA

75.3 10.9 82.3 6.1

NATIONWIDE Ι SAMPLE OF 2,822 OBSERVATIONS Ι AUGUST 1ST- 3RD, 2019

August 6th, 2019 synopsis.com.ar synopsis.com.ar

1.9 1.1 3.6

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GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION GENDER DISTRIBUTION

EDUCATION LEVEL DISTRIBUTION

35.1 20.5 23.0 11.0 10.4

August 6th, 2019 synopsis.com.ar synopsis.com.ar

If the presidential primary (PASO) elections were today, which of these

SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION

If the Governor primary elections were today, which of these candidates

SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION

Voting transfer between President and Governor

Origin of Vidal's vote according to the President's vote

BUENOS AIRES Ι 1.371 OBSERVATIONS Ι AUGUST 1ST- 3RD, 2019

FIELDWORK DATE (NACIONAL SAMPLE): 1st- 3rd, AUGUST 2019 .

SAMPLE SIZE : 2,822 observations.

SAMPLE SIZE : 1,371 observations.

MARGIN OF ERROR: +/- 2.6.

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