AMAZON

PRIME DAY
2019
Black Friday in July and the
Kickoff to Back-to-School
Shopping
JULY 2019
Andrew Lipsman
Contributors: Jasmine Enberg, Lucy Koch, Nicole Perrin, Amy Rotondo, Peter Vahle
 AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO
BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING
Amazon Prime Day has emerged as a massive midsummer shopping event that drives incremental spending at
Amazon and competing retailers. It also serves as the unofficial lead-in to the back-to-school shopping season.

How much will Amazon Prime Day 2019 generate in

ecommerce sales?
Prime Day 2018 generated an estimated $4.19 billion in
worldwide sales for Amazon, with $2.65 billion coming
from the US and another $1.54 billion internationally. With
this year’s event extended from 36 to 48 hours on July
15 and 16, global sales should surpass $5 billion—with
the potential to exceed that number significantly should
participation increase in line with shoppers’ expectations.

What are the key drivers of Amazon

Prime membership?
Fast and free shipping continue to be top reasons
for subscribing to Prime, but Prime Video and other
free entertainment options are increasingly important
drivers—particularly in markets outside the US.

Which products will be Amazon Prime Day’s

best-sellers?
Prime Day’s top-sellers are expected to come from
Amazon’s consumer electronics flagships Echo and Fire
TV. Top-sellers outside of the Amazon product portfolio
could be the Instant Pot multicooker and iRobot Roomba.
KEY STAT: We forecast that Prime membership will
grow 8.6% to 121.2 million US users in 2019 and reach
135.8 million users by 2021.

What should third-party marketplace sellers do to

make the most of Amazon Prime Day?
CONTENTS
Amazon sellers that want to drive a high volume of
product sales on Prime Day should determine their most 2 Amazon Prime Day 2019: Black Friday in July and the
important product listings, refresh their descriptions, buy Kickoff to Back-to-School Shopping
advertising before Prime Day to promote their ranking, 3 Prime Day 2018 Unboxed: What Happened Last Year?
and consider promotions like Lightning Deals.
5 What’s in Store for Prime Day 2019?
Which other retailers are having promotions around 6 Prime Day and the Amazon Flywheel: Media, Advertising
Amazon Prime Day? and Commerce
Retailers have gotten increasingly competitive with 13 Five Predictions for Prime Day 2019
Amazon around Prime Day to take advantage of shoppers
14 How Brands and Marketers Are Taking Advantage of
who are ready to buy during midsummer. Walmart, Target Prime Day
and eBay are all hosting competing promotions hoping
not to concede more ground to Amazon while positioning 18 Key Takeaways
their brands for success during back-to-school season. 18 eMarketer Interviews
19 Read Next
WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report analyzes the results of
Prime Day 2018 and takes a look ahead at what to expect 19 Sources
for Prime Day 2019. 19 Editorial and Production Contributors

AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2
 PRIME DAY 2018 UNBOXED: WHAT US Amazon Prime Day and Cyber Monday Unique
Visitor Metrics, 2017 & 2018
HAPPENED LAST YEAR? Prime Day Cyber Monday Prime Day
2017 2017 2018

Amazon held its fourth annual Prime Day on July Total digital unique visitors 50.5 64.0 63.0
(millions)
16 and 17 last year, a 36-hour event that generated % using desktop/laptop 56% 52% 39%
a flurry of online spending to the tune of $4.19 % using mobile devices 61% 66% 76%
billion worldwide, according to Internet Retailer. Note: includes desktop and mobile app and browser; Prime Day 2017 for
July 11 and Prime Day 2018 for Tuesday, July 17 only (excludes Monday, July
While Amazon benefitted the most from the 16 afternoon traffic or spending); Cyber Monday 2017 was on Nov 27
Source: comScore, "Prime Day 2018," Aug 3, 2018
midsummer boost in spending, other retailers offered 240192 www.eMarketer.com

competing promotions that turned the event into an

Prime Day shoppers bought millions of items at huge
industrywide phenomenon. discounts. According to marketing intelligence firm
InfoScout (now Numerator), seven of the top 10 products
US vs. International Amazon Prime Day Sales, purchased by US Amazon buyers on Prime Day were
2015-2018 Amazon electronics. The Fire TV Stick with Alexa Voice
billions Remote ranked No. 1, while the second-generation Echo
$4.19 Dot came in at No. 2. The Instant Pot Duo60 pressure
cooker, the top non-Amazon product, rounded out the top
three. Each of the 10 top-selling products had discounts
of at least 28.6%, with three of them discounted by 50%.
$2.65
$2.41

Prices of the Top 10* Products Purchased by US

$1.52 $1.56 $1.54 Amazon Buyers on Amazon Prime Day 2018**
$0.24
$1.15 Regular price Sale price
$0.90 $0.83
$0.70
1. Amazon Fire TV Stick with Alexa $39.99 $19.99
$0.37 Voice Remote
2. Amazon Echo Dot (2nd generation) $49.99 $29.99
2015 2016 2017 2018
3. Instant Pot Duo60 6 Qt. 7-in-1 multiuse $99.95 $58.99
International US Total programmable pressure cooker

Note: includes sales of marketplace merchants' inventory 4. Amazon Fire 7 tablet with Alexa - 7" $49.99 $29.99
Source: Internet Retailer as cited in company blog, Aug 8, 2018 display (8 GB)
241715 www.eMarketer.com 5. Amazon Fire TV with 4-K Ultra HD $69.99 $34.99
& Alexa Voice Remote
Amazon positions Prime Day as a way to engage 6. Amazon Fire HD 8 tablet with Alexa $79.99 $49.99
Prime members and reinforce the benefits of Prime 8" HD display (16 GB)

membership with special deals and offers only for 7. 23andMe DNA test (health and $199.00 $99.00
ancestry genetic services)
insiders. It also aims to convince consumers to join Prime 8. Amazon Echo (2nd generation) $99.99 $69.99
in order to have access to the deals. Last year, for the 9. Amazon Echo Show $229.99 $129.99
first time, Prime Day was extended to include an extra 10. TP-Link Kasa Smart Wi-Fi Plug Mini $27.99 $19.99
half day. Note: represents activity from InfoScout's omnichannel consumer
purchase panel, broader industry metrics may vary; *ranked by number of
units sold; **July 16-17
Prime Day 2018 brought a huge number of visitors Source: InfoScout, "Amazon Prime Day: 2018 Recap" as cited in company
blog, July 26, 2018
to Amazon’s website and mobile app for the event.
240148 www.eMarketer.com
According to Comscore, 63.0 million US internet users
visited on July 17, 2018, with nearly twice as many coming
from mobile devices as on desktop (76% vs. 39%)—and
some overlapping between the two platforms. The total
number of Prime Day visitors rivaled Cyber Monday’s 64.0
million visitors in 2017, Amazon’s biggest traffic day prior
to Prime Day 2018.

AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3
Amazon’s press release the day following the event To learn more about Amazon’s global expansion efforts,
announced several milestones: read our November 2018 report “Amazon Around
the World: ‘Primed’ for International Expansion, but
■■ It was the biggest shopping event in Amazon’s history, Faces Challenges from Alibaba, MercadoLibre, Flipkart
surpassing Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Prime Day and Others.”
2017 (though Amazon did not quantify whether this was
Despite Prime Day’s rising global influence, Amazon
by sales or some other metric).
also contended with a swath of unfavorable headlines
■■ More new Prime members signed up on July 16 than surrounding the event. Prime Day got off to a rocky start
any previous day in Amazon history. last year, with many shoppers experiencing glitches
on the site and mobile app. Other events that clouded
■■ More than 100 million products were sold during the start of Prime Day included Microsoft and Walmart
the event. announcing a major cloud partnership cementing
an increasingly cozy relationship between the two
■■ A record number of customers shopped Prime Day
formidable Amazon competitors; and Amazon warehouse
across 17 countries.
workers in Europe went on strike over pay, benefits and
Prime Day has become an increasingly global working conditions.
phenomenon as deals, discounts and marketing events
have traversed geographic borders. In fact, the majority A survey conducted by supply chain software provider
of the approximately 1.9 million Prime Day deals—up JDA found that more than half of shoppers experienced
an estimated 37% from the prior year, per a study by technical difficulties on Prime Day. And of those affected,
One Click Retail (now Edge Market Share)—occurred more than half abandoned intended purchases as a result.
outside of the US. The analysis indicates that while the Internet Retailer estimated the site glitches amounted to
US led the pack in the number of deals offered, the $72.6 million in lost conversions.
UK (15%), Germany (12%) and Japan (9%) were also
meaningful markets. US Amazon Prime Day Shoppers Who Experienced
Technical Difficulties When Making a Purchase on
Prime Day, July 2018
Share of Amazon Prime Day Deals Worldwide, by % of respondents
Country, 2018
Yes, I experienced technical problems, but was eventually able
% of total to make my purchases
24.6%
US 40%
Yes, I experienced technical problems and, although I made
UK 15% purchases, I bought fewer items than planned as a result
Germany 12% 11.3%
Yes, I experienced technical problems and gave up on Amazon
Japan 9% Prime Day without making any purchases
Canada 6% 15.9%
No, I didn't experience any technical problems
France 6%
48.2%
Mexico 6%
Note: n=1,100 ages 18+; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
3% Italy Source: JDA, "Amazon Prime Day Survey," July 20, 2018
3% Spain 239817 www.eMarketer.com

Note: there were approximately 1.9 million promotions worldwide on
Amazon Prime Day 2018; read as 40% of Amazon Prime Day deals in 2018
occurred on the US platform
Source: One Click Retail as cited by Business Insider, Aug 7, 2018
241635 www.eMarketer.com
As site crashes turned away some shoppers, competing
retailers were in position to capture the overflow because
of their concurrent promotions. In fact, many Prime Day
buyers cross-shopped at other leading retailers, according
to a post-event survey by InfoScout. Nearly one in four
(24%) compared prices at Walmart, 14% did so at Target,
and 9% at Best Buy.

AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4
Where Did US Amazon Prime Day 2018* Buyers
Compare Prices?
WHAT’S IN STORE FOR PRIME
% of respondents DAY 2019?
Walmart 24%
With Prime Day now in its fifth year, many Prime
Target 14%
members have been conditioned to anticipate and
Best Buy 9%
prepare for the event. According to a Profitero survey,
6% Department store
76% of Amazon Prime members in the US expect
Other 6%
to shop Prime Day, a big jump from the 63% who
Didn't compare any prices 46%
shopped last year. In addition, 56% of Prime members
Note: ages 18+; vs. Amazon's prices; *July 16-17, 2018 who purchased on Prime Day last year expect to
Source: InfoScout, "2018 Amazon Prime Day: An Early Read" as cited in
company blog, July 20, 2018 spend more this year. And participation in Prime Day
240159 www.eMarketer.com
among UK Prime members is expected to climb from
Unsurprisingly, Amazon ultimately makes huge market 52% in 2018 to 67% this year.
share gains during the month of July, a good portion of
which are sustained into August. July was Amazon’s
UK and US Amazon Prime Members Who Shopped on
second-highest month for ecommerce market share in Amazon During Prime Day in 2018 vs. Plan to in 2019
2018 at 36.9% and trailing only December at 39.0%, per % of respondents
Rakuten Intelligence. August was the fourth-highest-
US
ranking month at 34.6%, suggesting the Prime Day halo 63%
effect bleeds well into peak back-to-school season. 76%
UK
52%
Amazon Monthly Retail Ecommerce Sales Share,
Jan-Dec 2018 67%
% of total 2018 2019

Source: Profitero, "2019 Prime Day Predictions," June 25, 2019

248058 www.eMarketer.com

39.0% With millions of deals across all product categories, Prime

36.9% Day shoppers are very likely to cross-category shop.
34.2% 34.6% According to the Profitero study, the highest percentage
33.1% of US Prime shoppers expected to shop for electronics
31.4% 34.7% 32.0%
this year (71%), followed by apparel (58%) and home
32.1% 32.5%
31.6% goods (56%). In the UK, electronics also tops the list at
28.9% 72%, but apparel falls way behind the US at 31%. With
so many well-known online fashion and apparel brands
out of the UK and Western Europe like Asos, Zalando and
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Nelly.com, Amazon has not made as much progress in
Source: Rakuten Intelligence data as cited in the Internet Retailer blog, Feb
27, 2019 this category in the UK as it has in the US. Perhaps Prime
248282 www.eMarketer.com Day will serve as a springboard to further promote its
apparel offerings to this audience.
“It has been exciting to see Prime Day also help shape
retail trends by moving up the start of back-to-school
shopping, catapulting emerging brands—such as
Instant Pot—into the spotlight and encouraging new
and established brands alike to launch new products
during the event,” said Cem Sibay, vice president of
Amazon Prime.

AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5
Which Types of Products Are UK vs. US Amazon Prime For years it seemed that Google or Facebook had the
Members Most Likely to Shop for During Prime Day inside track with their gigantic media platforms (YouTube
2019? and Facebook) and correspondingly huge advertising
% of respondents
businesses. Each dabbled in various commerce initiatives
Electronics but never quite managed to lock down that third pillar.
72%
71%
Amazon flew under the radar during this time. While
Home goods
clearly dominant on the commerce pillar, Amazon was
58%
just a blip on the media and advertising side of things—
56%
until recently. With the surge in Prime Video viewership
Health & beauty
40% along with its fast-growing advertising business, Amazon
47% now seems better positioned to synchronize the three
Toys & games digital currencies. Amazon’s newfound position gives
39% it yet another flywheel effect to fuel its growth going
40% forward—and Prime Day is the perfect accelerant.
Apparel
31% “The increase in high-value traffic and sales, particularly
58% from Amazon’s loyal Prime member audience, generates
Tools & home improvement incremental product exposure, which can lead to net new
27%
customers and additional sales—and, in turn, potential
35%
growth in reviews and increased organic positioning,” said
Grocery
Dani Nadel, president and chief operating officer of pricing
18%
24%
intelligence firm Feedvisor. “With advertising added to
the mix, the flywheel accelerates. When other customers
UK US
shop on or after Prime Day and discover the products
Note: among Prime members planning to shop on Amazon on Prime Day they are considering in the top search positions, as well
Source: Profitero, "2019 Prime Day Predictions," June 25, 2019
248059 www.eMarketer.com
as the positive reviews and ratings for them, the sales
velocity amplifies as a result.”
And though product deals are at the forefront of
shoppers’ minds on Prime Day, the event has evolved
into something much bigger—and Amazon will look to
double down on the 360-degree experience. “Prime Day COMMERCE
is even more than the best of shopping, it is also the best
of entertainment with A-list talent delivering amazing Prime Membership
experiences this year,” Amazon’s Sibay said. “And that’s Prime Day, above all else, is about huge discounts and
why our measure of success for Prime Day is not sales, attractive deals designed to reward Prime members
but actually engagement—how many members found and get them to spend. For those Prime membership
something fun to do, tried a benefit of Prime, discovered holdouts, the event is a stark reminder of what they are
a new brand or found a new deal.” missing. That’s why, during each of the past few years,
Amazon has boasted of Prime Day generating record
levels of new signups.

PRIME DAY AND THE AMAZON According to our forecast, we expect that Amazon Prime
FLYWHEEL: MEDIA, ADVERTISING will reach 121.2 million users in the US in 2019 (across
AND COMMERCE 65.0 million households), up 8.6% from last year and
representing nearly two-thirds of digital buyers. This year
will be the first year that Prime user growth falls below
Facebook, Google and Amazon are engaged in a
double digits. This is because, with penetration already so
game of thrones—an epic battle for digital supremacy. high, there are fewer new subscribers to acquire. And the
The anointed one will be whichever company stakes remaining holdouts are inevitably the toughest ones to
its claim to all three coins of the digital realm: media, acquire, suggesting that Amazon will increasingly need to
advertising and commerce. look outside the US for new Prime members.

AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6
 Prime membership is the fulcrum on which Amazon’s
commerce flywheel spins. By financially—and
psychologically—committing to Amazon, customers
are more likely to fulfill their shopping needs on the
platform. As a result, they spend significantly more with
Amazon over the course of a year than nonmembers do.
According to CIRP’s Q1 2019 report, US Prime members
spend an average of $1,400 annually on Amazon vs. $600
for nonmembers.

For Prime members, reflexive purchases on Amazon

become routine. According to a February 2019 study by
Feedvisor and Zogby Analytics, 48% of Prime members
said they purchase at least once a week (vs. 13% of
nonmembers who had purchased from Amazon within
the past two years). Twenty-seven percent of members
reported purchasing at least a few times a week (vs. 5%
of nonmembers). Incredibly, 7% of Prime members said
they purchase on a daily or near-daily basis.

Conversion and retention rates help explain why US Prime How Often Do US Amazon Prime vs. Non-Prime
membership growth has flattened, according to Mike Members Buy Products Online?
% of respondents, Feb 2019
Levin, partner and co-founder of Consumer Intelligence
Research Partners (CIRP) in an April 2019 press release: Daily/almost every day
7%

“Retention after a year has always been high, and at over 2%

95% after two years has been the envy of any company A few times a week
20%
that sells memberships of any sort. But, conversion from
3%
a 30-day free trial membership has declined, from over
Once a week
75% at its height to under 65% today. ... With the Prime 21%
members who get the most out of their membership 8%
already signed up, new trial members are less likely to Every few weeks
convert to paid membership. Further, the option to pay 26%
for Prime membership on a monthly basis makes it even 24%
easier to let a trial membership lapse.” Once a month
14%
Still, Amazon Prime’s high single-digit growth rate remains 22%
impressive, especially when considering that Amazon Every few months/several times a year
increased the price of annual Prime membership from 11%
37%
$99 to $119 in May 2018.
Rarely
1%
8%

Prime members Non-Prime members

Note: ages 18+ who have purchased a product from Amazon in the past 24
months
Source: Feedvisor, "The 2019 Amazon Consumer Behavior Report"
conducted by Zogby Analytics, March 19, 2019
246117 www.eMarketer.com

AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 7
Amazon Prime members remain loyal and rarely churn
despite the triple-digit price tag, with the overwhelming
driver of Prime membership being fast and free shipping.
According to the same Feedvisor/Zogby Analytics study,
83% of Prime members rated free two-day shipping
as their favorite benefit, followed by video and music
streaming (10%) and Prime-exclusive Whole Foods
deals (5%).
What Do US Amazon Prime Members Like Most About
Prime?
% of respondents, Feb 2019
Free two-day shipping
Video and music streaming
10%
Prime-exclusive deals at Whole Foods
5%
Free audiobooks and magazines
1%
Other
1%
Note: Amazon Prime members ages 18+ who have purchased a product on
Amazon in the past 24 months
Source: Feedvisor, "The 2019 Amazon Consumer Behavior Report"
conducted by Zogby Analytics, March 19, 2019
246119
The added entertainment and offline shopping perks are
nice, but fast and free delivery is the real battleground for
consumer loyalty in ecommerce—and the competition
is intensifying.
Walmart and Target have both made huge investments
to improve their delivery offering. In May 2019, Walmart
announced free next-day delivery—without an annual
membership fee—for more than 200,000 of the most
frequently purchased items. Target followed up in June
2019 with its expansion of same-day delivery to 47 states,
per order or $99 for an annual membership through the
company’s delivery app partner Shipt.
AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8
With the competition heating up, consumers are the big
winners. More convenient delivery options are available,
and average delivery times across the industry continue
to improve. According to Rakuten Intelligence, from 2017
to 2018, the average click-to-door time improved from 3.7
days to 3.2 days for Amazon and from 7.2 days to 6.0 days
for all other retailers.
Average Click-to-Door Speed* for US Digital Purchases
Made on Amazon vs. Other Retailers, 2017-2018
7.2
6.0
83%
3.7
3.2
Jan-Dec 2017 Jan-Dec 2018
Amazon Other retailers
Note: represents activity on Rakuten Intelligence's platform, broader
industry metrics may vary; *i.e., the number of days from a digital purchase
www.eMarketer.com
transaction to package arrival
Source: Rakuten Intelligence, "Forward deployed inventory: the future of
e-commerce?" April 10, 2019
247232 www.eMarketer.com
Amazon Products
As Amazon looks for paths to continued growth in its
ecommerce business, bringing more brands—including
private-label brands and exclusives—onto the platform
has helped meet customer demand. Amazon appears to
be focusing its private-label strategy on the categories
where it has the most to gain; specifically, large and
relatively underpenetrated categories.
According to our estimates, apparel will be Amazon’s Share of Amazon's Private-Label Products, by Product
second-largest category in the US, with $35.78 billion in Category, March 2019
sales in 2019. But its share of the category (29.6%) still % of total and number of brands
falls below its overall ecommerce market share of 37.7%. % of total Number of brands
Clothing, shoes & jewelry 47.7% 188
Home & kitchen 11.1% 72
US Amazon Retail Ecommerce Sales, by Product Grocery & gourmet food 8.4% 56
Category, 2019
Health & household 8.0% 110
billions, % change vs. prior year and % of category retail
ecommerce sales Sports & outdoor 5.7% 71
Electronics 3.3% 18
Amazon retail % change vs. % of category
ecommerce prior year retail ecommerce Beauty & personal care 2.9% 51
sales sales Industrial & scientific 2.9% 36
Computer and $59.16 15.3% 46.4% Baby 2.6% 25
consumer electronics
Tools & home improvement 2.4% 17
Apparel & accessories $35.78 21.3% 29.6%
Office products 1.5% 13
Books/music/video $27.24 14.9% 67.4%
Pet supplies 0.9% 19
Furniture and home $22.03 21.1% 34.0%
furnishings Video games 0.6% 4
Toys and hobby $17.12 21.3% 44.6% Patio, lawn & accessories 0.5% 8
Health and personal $15.72 23.1% 29.6% Automotive 0.4% 7
care and beauty Cellphones & accessories 0.4% 6
Auto and parts $6.40 17.2% 12.6% Appliances 0.2% 7
Office equipment $6.15 12.9% 42.8% Musical instruments 0.2% 2
Food and beverage $5.33 24.4% 23.6% Toys & games 0.1% 9
Other $26.20 13.1% 48.5% Arts, crafts & sewing 0.1% 3
Note: includes products ordered using Amazon.com (browser or app), Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment; excludes travel and Source: Marketplace Pulse, "Amazon Private Label Brands.," March 18,
event tickets, Amazon Web Services (AWS) sales, advertising services and 2019
credit card agreements
Source: eMarketer, May 2019 246226 www.eMarketer.com

248081
Apparel is also the category where Amazon has
concentrated private-label introductions. According to
a March 2019 analysis by ecommerce intelligence
firm Marketplace Pulse, Amazon had rolled out 188
private-label apparel brands—the most of any category—
which account for 47.7% of Amazon’s total number of
private-label SKUs.
www.eMarketer.com
Other private-label categories of importance are in
consumer products like home/kitchen, grocery/gourmet
food and health/household, all of which are very large
retail categories that are still in the early phases of
moving online.
But more recently, Amazon appears to have shifted
strategy in the direction of Amazon Exclusives. Rather
than roll out its own house brands, Amazon increasingly
has partnered with other brands to provide exclusive
distribution in exchange for a fee.

AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 9
“In 2018, it looked like Amazon found a more scalable
way to grow its portfolio brands, but in 2019 shifted
toward having other established brands for Amazon,” said
Joe Kaziukenas, CEO and founder of Marketplace Pulse.
“That allowed it to launch many more brands than in the
past and also have way less risk than before.”
Gartner L2’s March 2019 analysis of Amazon brands
highlighted the shift, with exclusives outnumbering
private labels 314 to 119. The largest category, apparel,
was at relative parity between private labels and
exclusives, while every other category has exclusives
outnumbering private labels.
Amazon’s most notable private label is its line of
Amazon-branded consumer electronics that includes its
Echo smart speaker and Fire TV streaming video devices.
The introductory versions of these devices have led the
charge on Prime Day, with the Echo Dot ranking as the
top-selling product in 2017 and the Fire TV Stick claiming
the top spot in 2018. Amazon has also made several
acquisitions of smart home electronics brands, such
as the Ring doorbell and Blink home security system.
Together, these can once again be expected to be among
Amazon’s most visible and heavily promoted items on
Prime Day.

Number of Private Label and Exclusive Brands on

Amazon, by Category, March 2019
MEDIA
Private label Exclusive brands Prime Video
Fashion 103 106
Grocery 5 52 Amazon’s emergence as a media powerhouse is
Household goods 5 34 undeniable. With its unique and ever-expanding portfolio
Furniture 3 18 of high-quality content and media-enabled hardware
Healthcare & beauty 2 79 devices, the company is laying a claim to the living room
Pet and animal products 1 10 that rivals those of Netflix, Apple and Google.
Industrial 0 8
Electronics 0 7 Amazon’s crown jewel at the moment is Prime Video,
Total 119 314 which has continued to gain adoption amid the rise of
Source: Gartner L2, "Amazon Intelligence Report: Private Label 2019" as cord-cutting and the shift to over-the-top (OTT) premium
cited in company blog, March 26, 2019
247715 www.eMarketer.com video consumption. Amazon spent a staggering
$1.7 billion on original content in Q1 2019, putting it on
The exclusives program accelerated Amazon’s ability
pace to spend about $7 billion in 2019 and signaling its
to bring more brands in strategic categories onto the
commitment to rival Netflix, which spent $7.5 billion in
platform to spur growth. While the program promised
2018. Prime’s strong existing footprint in US households
increased distribution for these brands, the approach
has made the transition to Prime Video a natural one for
wasn’t necessarily their preferred option.
many viewers. In geographies outside the US, Prime
Video is actually the beachhead for Prime subscription—
“Amazon’s rollout of private-label exclusives put some
which is one reason why Amazon has invested in localized
brands under pressure with a sort of prisoner’s dilemma,”
video content for countries like India, which is a promising
said Keith Anderson, senior vice president of strategy and
but still nascent ecommerce market.
insights at Profitero. “Brands were approached with the
exclusives program and an invitation to participate under a
According to Hub Research in May 2019, Amazon Prime
very tight timetable, and some pressure that, if they said
Video now reaches 37% of the US viewing population,
no, a competitor would surely say yes.”
up from 32% in 2018. Netflix still retains the lead among
OTT streaming video services at 62%, but its penetration
appears to be tapering off while Amazon mounts a more
serious challenge.

AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 10
US TV Viewers Who Subscribe to Select
TV/Subscription Video-on-Demand (SVOD) Services,
Alexa and Voice
2018 & 2019 Video may be the current media battleground, but voice
% of respondents
is almost certain to be next. With Amazon’s consistent
Pay TV (cable, satellite or telco) expansion of the Echo portfolio—into both smaller and
84% lower-priced models like the Echo Dot as well as larger
75%
and more sophisticated devices like the screen-enabled
Netflix
Echo Show—Amazon has spurred adoption and helped
61%
normalize voice interaction within the home.
62%
Amazon Prime Video
32%
We forecast that Echo will reach 49.1 million users in the
37% US this year, growing more than 50% over the past two
Hulu years. Amazon’s significant discounting, particularly of the
18% $49.99 Echo Dot, has been instrumental in ramping the
26% adoption curve.
2018 2019

Note: ages 16-74 who watch at least 1 hour of TV per week US Amazon Echo Users, 2017-2021
Source: Hub Research, "The Best Bundle," May 22, 2019 millions and % of population
247602 www.eMarketer.com
49.1

Currently, it’s fairly easy for premium video content to find 43.6
an audience, even in this age of abundance—especially
when the content is available and easy to access. And 32.4
Amazon has leveraged Prime Day to make its content
accessible through the proliferation of Fire TV devices like
the Fire TV Stick with Alexa Voice Remote, which as noted
earlier was heavily discounted to $19.99 on Prime Day
2018 and became the day’s top-selling product.

13.3% 14.9%
We expect that the number of Fire TV users in the US 10.0%
will grow 17.1% in 2019 to 64.6 million and approach 2017 2018 2019
90 million by 2023. While Fire TV penetration remains Users % of population
behind that of Roku, which is expected to hit 86.2 million Note: individuals who use an Amazon Echo at least once a month
users this year, it ranks well ahead of its walled garden Source: eMarketer, May 1, 2019
248025 www.eMarketer.com
competitors Google Chromecast (31.6 million) and Apple
TV (24.6 million). Echo owners most commonly use their devices for
playing music, setting timers and other routine tasks. But
The strategy playing out seems to be more Fire TV they are also increasingly summoning Alexa to perform
devices in the hands of Prime members with easy access a variety of tasks that directly fuel Amazon’s business.
to Prime Video content, in turn helping to reinforce According to eMarketer’s April 2019 Ecommerce Survey
the value of Prime membership. This supports the conducted with Bizrate Insights, 17% of smart speaker
continued growth of the commerce business. Moreover, owners had used their devices to ask for product
continued growth of Prime Video viewership expands the recommendations, while 12% had added products to
potential for video inventory to help accelerate Amazon’s their shopping cart, browsed products, and ordered
advertising business. movies/TV shows/music.

AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 11
Which Select Activities Have US Smart Speaker “2018 was really the year of Amazon advertising,” said
Owners Done on Their Smart Speakers? Jeff Cohen, chief relationship officer of marketplace
% of respondents, by demographic, April 2019 selling software firm Seller Labs. “We all knew that it was
Gender Age Total here, and we knew it was coming. But 2018 is when it
Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ became the major effort of all brands as well as all sellers
Asked for product 17% 16% 20% 15% 14% 17% on the platform.”
recommendations
Added products to shopping 13% 11% 18% 13% 4% 12%
cart, then finished checkout According to data from marketing intelligence firm
on another device
Jumpshot, the share of US product listing views on
Browsed products 15% 10% 14% 16% 5% 12%
Amazon climbed throughout 2018, from 6.6% in January
Ordered movies, TV shows, 12% 11% 15% 12% 6% 12%
music, etc. to 10.5% by December. The lead-up to Prime Day in June
Re-ordered products that 13% 7% 11% 13% 4% 10% 2018, as the single biggest one-month gain of the year,
you've bought before
may have been an inflection point, as sellers realized the
Added products to shopping 9% 8% 11% 9% 3% 8%
cart, then bought on smart value of boosting spend to prime the pumps for Prime
speaker Day—though it could also reflect a decision on behalf of
Ordered groceries or 7% 3% 5% 7% 4% 5% Amazon to increase ad loads.
household items
Ordered electronic devices 5% 3% 5% 6% 0% 4%
None of the above 62% 68% 63% 59% 75% 65% Share of US Product Listing Views on Amazon that
Note: ages 18-65; among respondents who own a smart speaker Are Driven by Sponsored Search on Amazon,
Source: "The eMarketer Ecommerce Survey" conducted in April 2019 by Jan-Dec 2018
Bizrate Insights, April 9, 2019
246597 www.eMarketer.com 10.5%
10.1%
9.7%
9.3% 9.5%
The more people engage with Amazon’s voice hardware 8.8%
8.4%
and software, the more data can be gathered on which 7.6%
to train Alexa’s artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to help 6.6% 6.8% 6.8%
6.9%
extend its ecosystem advantage. This also gives Amazon
leverage by which to partner with smart home electronics
and home appliance manufacturers to integrate with
Alexa. That will result in an even bigger moat as it
improves the quality of voice interaction and further
habituates users to the interface. If properly executed,
Amazon will have the ability to steer more dollars toward
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
its commerce and advertising businesses over time
Note: represents activity tracked by Jumpshot, broader industry metrics
(though Amazon has not yet attempted to monetize voice may vary; read as 10.5% of product views on Amazon were driven by
through advertising). sponsored search listings and placements on Amazon during Dec 2018
Source: Jumpshot, "The Top Digital Trends for 2019: What Brands and
Retailers Need to Know to Thrive in the Year Ahead," Jan 25, 2019
245067 www.eMarketer.com

ADVERTISING Brands understand that to get the biggest boost from

Amazon’s Sponsored Product ads, which appear
against searches conducted on Amazon, may be the
most valuable ad units that exist, not just in the digital
advertising ecosystem but anywhere. The ability to
reach shoppers when they are demonstrating intent
and readiness to buy is the holy grail for brands. It’s
no surprise, then, that as Amazon has ramped up its
advertising offerings, brands have ratcheted up their
investment in the platform.
Prime Day, advertising needs to be part of the mix.
Sponsored Products ads ensure visibility and are
increasingly a cost of doing business on Amazon as
private labels and exclusives encroach on brands’ and
sellers’ turf.
Amazon wins either way. If brands fail to advertise
sufficiently against relevant keywords, more dollars will
flow toward Amazon’s private labels. And with private
labels always hovering one click away, brands compete
with their ad dollars for placement, pushing up advertising
rates. For Amazon, it’s a flip of the coin—whether it’s
heads or tails, it wins.

AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 12
To learn more about Amazon advertising, read our
September 2018 report “Amazon Advertising 2018: The
New No. 3 US Digital Ad Firm.”
FIVE PREDICTIONS FOR PRIME
DAY 2019
As we look back at Prime Day 2018 and examine how
Amazon’s business and the competitive landscape
have evolved over the past year, here are five
predictions that we think are likely to happen during
Prime Day 2019.
There will be no (noticeable) site outages.
After last year’s well-publicized site snafu, we should
expect the company has added fail-safes that ensure
such an episode doesn’t happen again. The unexpected
windfall for competing retailers that were prepared to
soak up those dollars in 2018 will not be there for the
taking in 2019. And with competitors like eBay promoting
extra discounts if Amazon incurs another Prime Day
outage, there is added incentive to avoid having egg on its
face again this year.
Amazon brick-and-mortar promotions will get
more aggressive.
This time last year, Amazon’s brick-and-mortar footprint
was Whole Foods Market and Amazon Books. Since
then, the company has begun rolling out Amazon Go and
Amazon 4-star locations to give it a more comprehensive
brick-and-mortar portfolio. Expect the company to
emphasize these new offerings—especially Amazon
Go, which is expected to open 3,000 locations over the
next few years—in hopes of creating awareness and
introducing these new concepts to the broader public.
At the same time, Whole Foods Market discounts will
also be heavily promoted, given its substantial store
footprint that currently reaches a much wider proportion
of Prime members.
AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 13
Amazon will emphasize brand exclusives at the
expense of private labels.
Amazon’s aggressive approach to private-label offerings
has taken a backseat to Amazon Exclusives, and there
are a few reasons why they’re likely to grab the spotlight
on Prime Day. First, as better-known brands, they come
with a perception of higher quality that combats Prime
Day’s image of pushing second-rate, excess inventory.
Secondly, with Amazon’s private-label strategy under
increasing scrutiny amid growing antitrust concerns,
it makes strategic sense not to raise the hackles
of regulators.
Amazon will shine a spotlight on emerging verticals
like health or financial services.
The company has begun making a series of interesting
moves in both these sectors in recent years, but it
remains to be seen how it intends to attack these large
but complex consumer-facing categories. Building on
personal genetic testing product 23andMe’s top-seller
status in recent years, it’s possible that Amazon will
look for other popular products in the health category
to spotlight—like smartwatches and fitness trackers.
Amazon could also promote membership for PillPack,
which it recently acquired in the pharmaceutical space.
If Amazon decides to emphasize financial services,
expect Amazon Pay to be front and center. And don’t
be surprised if it also makes more of a push into credit
cards—especially with Apple recently deciding to enter
the space.
Amazon will use its ‘prime’ real estate for something
other than products.
Amazon has traditionally used the highly valuable content
real estate on its website and app to promote the day’s
best product deals. While that won’t change, Amazon
will treat the homepage more like a media vehicle,
one capable of reaching tens of millions of users in a
concentrated period of time. Just like broadcast networks
carve out time when hosting the Super Bowl to promote
their own shows, expect Amazon to do more of that
than it has done in the past—particularly with high-profile
original TV shows like “Carnival Row,” starring Orlando
Bloom and Cara Delevingne, set to debut this summer.
 HOW BRANDS AND MARKETERS
ARE TAKING ADVANTAGE OF
PRIME DAY
It’s easy to think Prime Day is all about Amazon, and
in many ways, it is. According to Internet Retailer and
Rakuten Intelligence, Amazon’s share of ecommerce
sales on Prime Day jumps around 25 percentage
points over its typical share. In 2018, Amazon captured
58.0% of ecommerce sales vs. its annual baseline of
33.7%—though this Prime Day percentage marked a
decline from 2017’s 61.0% share.
Amazon Retail Ecommerce Sales Share on Prime Day*
vs. Full Year, 2017 & 2018
% of total
61.0%
58.0%
35.1%
Marketers need to find ways to hold their ground in a
retail landscape increasingly dictated by Amazon. “Prime
Day doesn’t even need to be an annual event—Amazon
could easily pull off a promotion like this on the 1st and
15th of every month if it really wanted to,” said Chris
Walton, CEO and co-founder of retail consultancy Red
Archer Retail. “Just imagine the shockwave that would
send across the industry.”
But retailers should also be looking to play offense at
a time when shoppers are active, engaged and ready
to buy. Research from marketing technology agency
Adlucent revealed 68% of those expecting to shop
on Prime Day plan to comparison shop on competing
merchants’ sites. There’s a flood of extra traffic, clicks and
conversions out there for the taking.
According to a study from CJ Affiliate by Conversant,
US industrywide ecommerce performance metrics
saw almost universal increases across several product
categories. Seven of the nine categories analyzed
achieved gains in clicks, orders, revenues and conversion
rates. Substantial revenue increases were generated by
33.7% categories like apparel and food/beverage (both up 50%).
But gains were more modest for computers/electronics
(up 8%), where Amazon’s deals on smart speakers
and streaming video devices probably soak up more of
the demand.

US Retail Ecommerce Performance Metrics of

2017 2018
Websites During Amazon Prime Day*, by Product
Prime Day* Full year Category, 2017 & 2018
Note: *July 11-12, 2017 and July 16-17, 2018 % change
Source: Internet Retailer and Rakuten Intelligence as cited in company Clicks Orders Revenue Conversion rate
blogs., Feb 27, 2019
248317 www.eMarketer.com Family 37% 81% 64% 35%
Food & drinks 33% 31% 50% -1%
The slight dip in Prime Day market share could be due Clothing/apparel 27% 35% 50% 7%
to the fact that the event spanned more time, making Computer & electronics 23% 27% 8% 4%
activity on the primary day less concentrated, or due to Telecom 19% 41% 11% 19%
the increase in competitive marketing efforts. Although Automotive 17% 49% 69% 28%
Amazon is the center of attention on Prime Day, there is Health & wellness 17% 19% 5% 3%
plenty of opportunity for other brands—both competitive Art/photo/music 4% 89% 5% 83%

and complementary—to take advantage of the Accessories -1% 53% 30% 53%
Note: *Prime Day lasted for 36 hours during July 16-17, 2018 and during
shopping frenzy. July 10-11, 2017; among high performing categories
Source: CJ Affiliate by Conversant, the digital media arm of Epsilon, May 21,
2019
247771 www.eMarketer.com

COMPETITIVE MARKETING CAMPAIGNS

Amazon’s biggest retail competitors aren’t content to let
their fiercest opponent completely hog the spotlight on
Prime Day, especially not with back-to-school shopping
season looming. Competitive marketing against Prime
Day is part defense, part offense.

AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 14
With these incremental spending gains up for grabs, it’s The leading reason they purchased from these competing
not surprising to see so many other retailers position retailers, according to the same survey, was that they
against Amazon and compete for dollars. Walmart found a better price/promotion for the same product
announced thousands of specials and discounts running (20%) or that it matched Amazon (17%). Other reasons
from July 14 through 17, while Target is hosting “deal included the product was not available on Amazon (17%),
days” coinciding with Prime Day. eBay is looking to the product quality was better elsewhere (10%) or it could
bigfoot Amazon by starting its summer discount event be picked up in-store (9%).
back on July 1. And in an act of unmistakable shade
thrown at Amazon, eBay is holding a “crash sale”
What Was the Main Reason that US Amazon Prime
featuring special discounts should there be a site crash on Day Buyers Purchased a Product from a Retailer Other
Prime Day once again. than Amazon on Amazon Prime Day 2018?
% of respondents
Refusing to concede any ground to Amazon during Prime Product could
be picked up
Day can help reinforce the competitor’s value proposition in-store Price/promotion
9% for product was
at an important time. “The back-to-school season has Other better from the
27% other retailer
been pushing earlier and earlier,” said Scott Kelliher, head
20%
of brand advertising and partnerships at eBay. “Brands Price/promotion
matched Amazon
are doing more to make sure they capture every potential Product 17%
sale and every potential dollar by moving earlier and and/or brand
not available
offering better value at different times.” on Amazon
Product was 17%
better quality/seller
Does the competitive marketing work? According to was more verified
10%
research from A.T. Kearney, 40% of Amazon Prime
Note: ages 18+; among buyers who made purchases from retailers other
Day 2018 buyers also bought from competing retailers. than Amazon; Prime Day 2018 was on July 16-17
Source: A.T. Kearney, "Post-Amazon Prime Day Survey," Aug 6, 2018
Among that segment of shoppers, Walmart was the top
240432 www.eMarketer.com
non-Amazon merchant at 21%, followed by Target (20%)
and Best Buy (16%). At this point, marketing against Prime Day has become
table stakes for the largest merchants. They can’t afford
to sit out what has become a make-or-break week for
Which Retailers Did US Amazon Prime Day Buyers
Take Advantage of for Digital Sales on Amazon Prime third-quarter performance.
Day 2018?
% of respondents “We are anticipating at least 250 of the top national
No, I did not search
Retailers
retailers will participate with their own offers surrounding
other sites for
competitive Walmart 21% Prime Day. Last year, it was just over 200, and that has
offers
Target 20% been growing exponentially every year,” said Michelle
35%
Best Buy 16% Skupin, senior director of marketing and communications
No, I searched Yes Macy's 15% at online coupon purveyor RetailMeNot. “Of the retailers
other sites for 40% 14%
competitive
eBay we surveyed, 84% of them say that Prime Week is the
offers, but Kohl's 14%
most important time for driving online sales during the
purchased
on Amazon entire back-to-school shopping season.”
25%

Bought from other

retailers on Prime day
Note: n=1,001 ages 18+; Prime Day 2018 was on July 16-17
Source: A.T. Kearney, "Post-Amazon Prime Day Survey," Aug 6, 2018
240431 www.eMarketer.com

AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 15
STRATEGIES FOR AMAZON SELLERS
Owned and Organic Content
Discounts are what Prime Day is all about, and they are
the easiest lever to drive sales volume. Many Prime Day
shoppers plan in advance, so there’s an effort to build
demand in the weeks and days leading up to the event.
The best way for sellers to drive awareness of the deals
is on their owned and operated websites and customer
email lists, letting existing customers know which product
discounts they should be looking out for.
“Consumers are now approaching Prime day with a
strategy the same way they approach Black Friday and
Cyber Monday, with particular products they’re looking
for,” Seller Labs’ Cohen said. “Brands trying to take better
advantage of Prime Day are using their external list to
drive awareness of their Prime Day specials and should
be prepared to use external traffic to drive internal velocity
on the Amazon marketplace. And they can’t just wake
up on the morning of Prime Day and turn these things
on—they need to be executed a week or two in advance
to give them enough time to get incorporated into the
Amazon algorithms.”
Brands also need to get their product listings in
impeccable shape, fully optimized for the event. “During
Prime Day, the intricate details of your store are under a
microscope,” Feedvisor’s Nadel said. “To help aid on-page
visibility and conversion, retailers and brands should make
sure their product listings are impactful, have descriptive
titles, clear descriptions and relevant keywords, and are in
line with Amazon’s best practices.”
Paid Advertising
Reaching out to existing customers is low-hanging fruit,
but its effects on driving traffic to product listings are less
certain than what can be achieved with paid advertising.
And brands are seeing the value of advertising on
Amazon, which is perhaps not altogether surprising given
that people are coming to Amazon with an intent to shop
and buy. Feedvisor and Morning Consult research from
September 2018 shows that 57% of brands used paid
ads on Amazon, and of those, 69% saw great value from
those efforts, and another 28% saw some value.
AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 16
How Much Value Are US Brands Seeing from Amazon
Advertising?
% of respondents, Sep 2018
Just a little Unsure/don't
2% want to disclose
1%
Not
sure
1% Some
28%
No
41% A great deal
Yes 69%
57%
How much value
brands see from
Amazon advertising
Brands paying for
advertising on Amazon
Note: numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding
Source: Feedvisor, "Brands & Amazon: Insights, Opportunities, and
Concerns in the Age of E-Commerce" conducted by Morning Consult, Jan
23, 2019
244781 www.eMarketer.com
Also not surprising, these efforts get magnified around
Prime Day. “According to Amazon, advertisers have
historically seen a five-times lift in sales for sponsored ad
campaigns on Prime Day, demonstrating how important
it is to advertise during this period,” Feedvisor’s Nadel
said. “Although year-round advertising is critical to product
discovery, having an Amazon advertising strategy in place
for Prime Day will be pivotal for maximizing sales and
profits, both during and immediately following the event.”
Brands understandably worry about sinking a lot of
money into ads around Prime Day only to see their profit
margins erode. There is definitely a balancing act between
maximizing volume and profits, but brands should view
their Prime Day tactics through a wider lens.
“The real question that these brands that are being asked
to spend lots of money on ads are trying to understand
is: What is the long-term impact? What is the flywheel
effect of spending money on advertising?” said Alasdair
McLean-Foreman, CEO and founder of Amazon seller
optimization platform Teikametrics. “What we see in the
data is there is a really high return on being aggressive
with advertising on Prime Day.”
Many brands are accustomed to calculating their
ACoS (advertising cost of sales), but McLean-Foreman
recommends a tweak on that metric, which he calls
“TACoS,” or total advertising cost of sales. The latter
metric takes into account a more holistic impact of
advertising spend over time.
“You might see a very high ACoS over Prime Day, but
you’re going to be able to kick-start this flywheel effect
that drives organic sales and organic reviews, which
helps the brand grow. If you’re trying to launch your
brand, that’s a great opportunity to think bigger than just
capturing a sale in the short term.” An ACoS metric that
might seem high during the concentrated Prime Day
period could look like a bargain if calculated in terms of
TACoS over the following weeks or months.
Promotions and Lightning Deals
These margin concerns also apply to thinking about
discounting levels on Prime Day. Since driving sales
volume can deliver long-term benefits, brands may decide
to sacrifice most—if not all—of their margin in order to
position a particular product listing for maximum success
in the back-to-school and holiday seasons.
And the more aggressive the discount, the higher the
dividend. According to Profitero’s analysis of more than
1,600 products on Prime Day 2018, sales lift jumps by
orders of magnitude depending on the discount level.
Discounts of less than 20% still delivered a two-times
increase in sales, so even minimal participation can deliver
a boost without eroding margins too badly. Discounts
of 21% to 30% delivered sales gains of 493%, while
31% to 40% discounts generated a boost of 767%. And
those willing to cut prices by 41% to 50% saw a massive
2,208% increase—though perhaps at the expense of
realizing any profit.
US Amazon Sales Lift* on Prime Day, by Discount
Level, July 9-July 24, 2018
% change
1%-10%
11%-20%
21%-30%
31%-40%
41%-50%
51%-60%
Note: 1,638 products analyzed; *vs. average daily sales from the week
before and after Prime Day (July 9-24, 2018, excluding July 16-17)
Source: Profitero, "2019 Prime Day Predictions," June 25, 2019
248060 www.eMarketer.com
“Typically, to move your products on Prime Day, you
do need to be talking about a substantial discount of
30% to 40%,” Seller Labs’ Cohen said. “One thing you
also want to think about is Lightning Deals. If you’re
considering doing Lightning Deals during holidays, there
is often a requirement for the pricing of that deal to be a
discount off your best price over a period of time—which
may be 30 days or a full year. So understand how future
AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 17
promotions you do may be affected by your Prime Day
promotion. You need to be thinking ahead, otherwise you
might shoot yourself in the foot.”
Lightning Deals are limited-time, limited-quantity deals
that get featured on Amazon, giving certain product
listings much broader exposure. The cutoff for sellers to
sign on was in May, so brands no longer have the option
to participate. Nevertheless, it is an important tool in the
seller’s toolkit and one that takes on added importance on
Prime Day.
“The lift in sales you’re going to have by doing a Lightning
Deal is obviously going to be multiple times greater
than if you just expected an organic lift of a Prime Day,”
Kaziukenas of Marketplace Pulse said. “If you want a big
increase in sales, and thus a big increase in popularity
on Amazon (hopefully making you the best-seller and
increasing your sales rank), then the Lightning Deal is
probably the best way to do it. Ultimately, you kind of give
up the market for it.”
But even if short-term profits get vaporized, it still could
be very well worth the effort. Profitero conducted an
analysis of more than 13,000 products that grew traffic
at least 50% on Prime Day 2018 vs. two weeks preceding
the event to examine how the products performed
post-event. The results found a strong halo effect where
66% of products analyzed had elevated sales levels two
weeks after. And of those products experiencing a halo
effect, there was an average traffic increase of 37%
during the two-week post-event period as compared with
the two-week pre-event period. Conversion rates actually
declined from 24% to 22% during those times, but given
the significantly higher traffic levels, brands still came out
212% way ahead in driving post-event sales.
226%
493%
Average US Traffic and Conversion Rate for Products
767% on Amazon, Pre* vs. Post** Amazon Day 2018,
2,208% July 2-15, 2018 and July 18-31, 2018
1,368% Pre* Post**
Conversion rate 24% 22%
Traffic*** 100 137
Note: based on an analysis by Profitero, broader industry metrics may vary;
13,226 products analyzed; includes only products with at least 25 glance
views during time period tracked; *July 2-15, 2018; **July 18-31, 2018;
***measured on an index where the baseline=100
Source: Profitero, June 27, 2019
248348 www.eMarketer.com
In one specific example from the report, a Fisher-Price not just a short-term cost but a long-term investment in
Rainforest Music & Lights Deluxe Gym had average daily sales volume.
sales of $2,237 the week prior to Prime Day, spiked to
$46,881 during the event, and then fell to $9,404 in the
week following—more than four times higher than
pre-Prime Day levels.
EMARKETER INTERVIEWS
Keith Anderson
Senior Vice President, Strategy and Insights
KEY TAKEAWAYS Profitero
Interviewed June 21, 2019

■■ Prime Day will be huge—opt out at your own

risk. With perhaps $5 billion or more up for grabs, Jeff Cohen
brands and retailers are wise not to sit out the event. Chief Relationship Officer
Consumers are looking for fresh deals. And while Seller Labs
Amazon is the first place they’ll look, they will jump Interviewed April 3, 2019

on whatever great deals they find—whether it’s on

Amazon or elsewhere. And don’t forget about the halo Alasdair McLean-Foreman
effect from Prime Day that can deliver incremental CEO and Founder
sales well into back-to-school season. Teikametrics
Interviewed June 25, 2019
■■ Selling on Amazon is a marathon, not a sprint. Even
for brands that missed the opportunity to fully invest in Dani Nadel
Prime Day participation, it can serve as a good lesson President and Chief Operating Officer
about the level of diligence that should be put toward Feedvisor
product listings, pricing strategies, promotions and Interviewed June 19, 2019

advertising efforts. This is essential to keeping sales

moving and maximizing the area under the curve during Cem Sibay
the extended selling seasons, like back-to-school and Vice President, Prime
the holidays where the real profits are made. Amazon
Interviewed June 28, 2019
■■ Prioritize, prepare and promote your product
listings. Sellers should decide which product listings Michelle Skupin
are their priority and be clear on whether generating Senior Director, Marketing and Communications
sales is strategic or financial in nature. Then they need RetailMeNot
to get their product listings in order, making sure to Interviewed June 17, 2019
have the right descriptions, brand terms and product
content to drive traffic and conversions. Lastly, discount Chris Walton
aggressively and decide which promotions, such CEO and Co-Founder
as Lightning Deals, are likely to deliver the results Red Archer Retail
you’re after. Interviewed June 28, 2019

■■ Be strategic, but don’t forget to do the math. Brands

Juozas (Joe) Kaziukėnas
need to go into Prime Day recognizing its strategic
CEO and Founder
value to drive sales of key products and then position
Marketplace Pulse
them for success during the back-to-school and holiday
Interviewed June 14, 2019
shopping seasons. But getting too aggressive with
promotions can also destroy margins and eat up
Scott Kelliher
inventory that will ding the business over the medium
Head of Brand Advertising and Partnerships
and longer terms. Brands need to do the math to
eBay
determine how much margin they’re willing to concede Interviewed June 24, 2019
and how to restore their inventory if sales volume
is higher than expected. They should also properly
account for advertising costs, keeping in mind that it’s

AMAZON PRIME DAY 2019: BLACK FRIDAY IN JULY AND THE KICKOFF TO BACK-TO-SCHOOL SHOPPING ©2019 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 18
 READ NEXT EDITORIAL AND
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Western Europe Ecommerce Trends in 2019: Holiday Dana Hill Director of Production
Shopping Patterns, Digital Grocery and the Rise of Erika Huber Copy Editor
Amazon and Alibaba Ann Marie Kerwin Executive Editor, Content Strategy
Stephanie Meyer Senior Production Artist
Heather Price Deputy Editor
SOURCES Magenta Ranero Senior Chart Editor
Amanda Silvestri Senior Copy Editor
Adlucent
A.T. Kearney
Bizrate Insights
CJ Affiliate by Conversant
Comscore Inc.
Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP)
Feedvisor
Gartner L2
Hub Research
InfoScout (now Numerator)
Internet Retailer
JDA
Jumpshot Inc.
Marketplace Pulse
Morning Consult
OneClickRetail (now Edge Market Share)
Profitero
Rakuten Intelligence
RetailMeNot
Zogby Analytics

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