The Effect of The Export Value of North Sumatera in Japan and

United States to The Economic Growth of North Sumatera

Iskandar Muda 1) &Tengku Erry Nuradi 2)
1 Accounting Department – Faculty of Economics and Business,
Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan, Indonesia
Telephone +62(61) 8214545. Postal Code 20155
iskandar1@usu.ac.id
www.usu.ac.id
2 Regional Planning, Universitas Sumatera Utara, Medan, Indonesia

Phone +62618214545. Postal Code 20155

tengkuerry@usu.ac.id
www.usu.ac.id
Keywords : Export Value, Clothing, Japan, United States, Economic Growth.
Abstract. The purpose of this research is aim to know the Effect of The Export Value of The North Sumatera
in Japan and United States to The Economic Growth of North Sumatera. The method of research using a causal
research design. The data used are secondary data sourced from Statistics Agency of North Sumatera Province.
The method of analysis used in this research is SEM method using Smart PLS software. The results show that
The Export Value of The North Sumatera to the United States influence to the Economic Growth of North
Sumatera.
1. INTRODUCTION
The existence of export activities it is clear will make the relationship between countries become better.
With so many meetings between countries it will further strengthen the relationships of each country that work
together. Exports will increase the country's foreign exchange, creating jobs both of which are very helpful to
the Indonesian economy that will improve the welfare of the people. If cooperation is done almost on all areas,
then the better the economy. Export activities will surely expand production, which was only in the production
into the country with the exports it will be marketed abroad resulting in widespread production. When
exporting a product, the exported product will directly compete and if the product has distinctive characteristics
with other countries then the product will become known. It would be easy to introduce domestic products
abroad if our products do not exist in the country, then our products will be the only product in the country
(Nugroho, 2017; Nurhayati, 2017; Safuan, 2017; Khaliqi et al., 2018; Muda and Hutapea, 2018; Muda and
Naibaho, 2018; Muda et al., 2018b; Yi, 2018 & Sabri et al., 2018). Each country has different natural
conditions, thus causing the product of each country is also different. North Sumatra with natural potential that
produces palm oil with many derivative products then opens export opportunities to various countries. Each
country has different natural resources and human resource capabilities. Indonesia's export performance in
2013 is not expected to recover fully after the trade balance deficit several times throughout 2012. Moreover,
the recovery of the European Union and the United States crisis shows a slow trend of improvement plus the
continued decline in commodity prices in the international market. Limited supply in a country, import
activities were initiated. Import export activities can also grow harmonious relations among nations. With this
international trade, many parties are involved and both benefit, both the profit of the sale and the benefits of the
fulfillment of needs. Imported exports are also one of the major jobs for businessmen. The natural state of
North Sumatra can not produce wheat and America cannot produce palm oil. Trade between nations is able to
overcome this problem (Tampubolon et al., 2017; Sihombing et al., 2017; Tarmizi et al., 2017; Sirouzilam et
al., 2017; Muda and Nurlina, 2018a & 2018b; Kesuma et al., 2018a & 2018b; Muda et al., 2018a; 2018i and
Sabri et al., 2018). Interstate trade allows Indonesia to obtain wheat and America to obtain palm oil. Trade
interstate will be able to bring goods that can not be produced in the country. For example Indonesia has not
been able to produce heavy machinery. Therefore, Indonesia trade with USA and Japan in the procurement of
these tools. Economically, Southeast Asia is a high-volume trading part of Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Australia,
including oil imports. Southeast Asia is very large population automatically a vast market not only for products
but also for the US service industry. Southeast Asia is an export partner and a partner of US imports. In
addition, Southeast Asia is also a destination for investment. Southeast Asia is an important US export
destination after China and Japan in the Pacific region. But US exports to Southeast Asia declined by about
20% as the region was experiencing a financial crisis, but trade was again taken into account as Southeast Asia
began to recover from the crisis. Export-import activities of the United States with ASEAN countries did
experience a decrease in volume between 1997-1999 due to the crisis experienced by this region. But slowly
shows an increase between 2000-2001. However, the events of September 11, 2001 again disrupted the stability
of the world's economic wheels, so that trade cooperation again declined in 2002. After Japan, US companies
are among the second largest investment in Southeast Asia (Rifin, 2017; Buyung et al., 2017; Permatasari and
Silitonga, 2017; Oktavilia et al., 2017 & Astini and Tafiprios, 2017). Much of the wealth of the United States
relies on multinational companies that also have significant interests in Southeast Asia. Economic cooperation
with the United States continues to increase. Although in its development foreign investment in this region is
generally somewhat behind compared to East Asia (Adam et al., 2017 & Simanjuntak et al., 2017). But in
some sectors, both economically, politically and strategically, Southeast Asia remains important. Southeast
Asia is a potential market for products and services industries, and as a key area of important natural resources,
including oil and natural gas. One of the other important investment sectors in Southeast Asia is the natural
resources. ASEAN countries are collectively an area of great energy and natural resources of the world, such as
tin, copper, gold, and renewable resources such as palm oil, rubber, coffee, and timber. The trade graph of USA
and Japan with North Sumatra Province is in Figure 1 below:
The Export Value of The North Sumatera to The Japan and United States

600,000
556,473 543,002
515,421 520,399
500,000 498,320
471,668 473,159 483,562
441,976 449,535 446,450 460,308
400,000 395,822 382,941
372,942

300,000 311,155
279,559 288,321 278,648
245,456 235,951 251,049 255,233 235,423
200,000 215,690 200,114 223,549 205,053 201,606 230,760

100,000
79,008
44,562
-
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Japan United States America

Figure 1. The Export Value of The North Sumatera in Japan and United States
Based on Figure shows North Sumatra Province Exports higher value and volume of transactions in the
period 2000-2013 higher to Japan than the United States. But in 2014-2015 the value of exports to the United
States continues to increase and decreased exports to Japan.
2. Material and Methods
The type of research used in this study is a comperative causal research which is a research with the
characteristics of the problem of causality between two variables or more. Comparative causal studies usually
involve two or more groups and one independent variable (Lubis et al., 2017; Muda et al., 2017; Syahyunan et
al., 2017; Handoko et al., 2017; Ferine et al., 2017; Erlina et al., 2017a, 2017b, Marhayanie et al., 2017;
Situmorang et al., 2017; Nasir et al., 2017; Muda and Windari, 2018; Muda and Hasibuan, 2018 & Pohan et
al., 2018). Comparative-causal studies are suatau research conducted to illustrate the relationship scheme and
the deeper influence of two or more facts and properties of the object under investigation. This study aims to
determine the cause or reason for differences in the behavior or status of individual groups (Dalimunthe et al.,
2017; Hutagalung et al., 2017; Achmad et al, 2017; Badaruddin et al., 2017 & Muda et al., 2018d). This
causal-comparative study is a follow-up of correlational studies. If a correlational study describes the degree of
relationship between two or more facts and properties of the object under study, then a causal-comparative
study describes such a causal relationship. Type of data is Secondary Data from North Sumatera In Figures by
Central Bureau of Statistics 1999-2015. This study was tested with SmartPLS. SmartPLS uses a bootstraping or
randomly multiplied method. Therefore assumption of normality will not be a problem for PLS. Besides being
related to data normality, by doing bootstrapping the PLS does not require a minimum number of samples.
Research with small samples can still use PLS
3. Result and Discussion
3.1. Result
3.1.1. Evaluation of Structural Model
In the implementation used two evaluation of assessment model that is Assessing Outer Model or
Measurement Model by using test of convergent validity, discriminant validity, composite reliability, and
Average Variance Extracted. And Assess the Structural Model or Inner Model by using R-squared (R2) test and
the path coefficient estimation test. PLS can be used to determine the complexity of the relationships of other
constants and constants, as well as the relationship of a const and its indicators. PLS is defined by two
equations, ie inner mode and outer model. Inner model determines the specification of the relationship between
the constants and other constants, whereas the outer model determines the specification of the relationship
between the constants and the indicators. PLS can work on the model of its constituent relationship and its
reflective and formative indicators, whereas SEM as reflective relationships only. Inner model evaluation
through the bootsraping menu also generates t statistics values that will be used to test the hypothesis. The
criteria are t statistic > 1.66 (Marhayanie et al., 2017; Muda et al., 2018c; 2018e; 2018f; 2018g & 2018h). If the
value of tcount < ttable then Ho accepted and when the value of tcount > t table then Ho is rejected which means that
the variable in question there is influence which is significant (Nurlina et al., 2017; Muda, 2018a; 2018b &
2018c). The significance test aims to find out how big influence of independent variable to dependent variable.
The significance test on the PLS method, the independent variable in question is the exogenous latent variable
and the dependent variable is the endogenous latent variable. Estimation value for path relation in inner model
is used to know the significance of the relationships between latent variables. This means that the independent
variables tested have an effect significantly to the dependent variable. The result of T-statistics value in the
table path coefficients is presented in the following figure:

Figure 2. Overall Model with Coefecient

The effect test can be seen in the following Table:
Table 1. The result of Bootsraping
Standard Deviation T Statistics P Values
Japan -> Economic Growth 0,248 1,266 0,206
United States -> Economic Growth 0,299 2,721 0,007

Based on the above Table produces coefficient of 0.005, smaller than α = 5% then the decision of
hypothesis testing reject H0 and accept the hypothesis Ha (Erlina et al., 2017b). In the variant-based PLS-Path
Modeling, this model consists of an Outer model (measurement model) and an structural model. Thus the
model evaluation on the Smart-PLS also consists of two stages of outer model evaluation and Inner Model. The
important thing to consider in using Smart-PLS is the absence of a statistical criterion capable of assessing the
overall model so that researchers are unable to perform inference analysis to test the feasibility of the model.
Alternatively, nonparametric tests through re-sampling methods such as Jackknifing and Bootstrapping can be
used to estimate a model produced. The results show that The Export Value of The North Sumatera to the
United States influence to the Economic Growth and while the exporting variables to Japan have not influence.
In addition to hypothesis testing through the bootsrapping menu that produces T-statistics, inner model
evaluation is also done by reviewing the R-Square value (Muda et al., 2017). The R-square value generated
from the inner model evaluation is presented in the following Table:
Table 2. R-Square Value
Original Sample (O) Sample Mean (M) 2.5% 97.5%
Economic Growth 0,658 0,657 0,213 0,865
 The variation of Adjusted R-Square value of 65.70 %. The results show that The Export Value of The
North Sumatera to the United States is influence to the Economic Growth. In recommendation of increasing
export to USA by Small and Medium Enterprises, government support is needed in the process of identifying
potential business actors in exporting; train and prepare identified business actors; connecting business actors
with business actors in the country of export destination; and provide full support to business actors after
finding such export opportunities. It is very important for the government of North Sumatra Province to be able
to increase exports and diversify export markets, given the relatively limited export market of North Sumatra.
This is seen in the factors driving North Sumatera exports in the last period is the same product that is sold to
the same market. One of the factors that hamper export performance is promotion and marketing. Therefore,
export diversification needs to be supported with strong marketing and promotion (Tumober, 2017; Co, 2017;
Chung, 2017; Bakari, 2017; Cornot, 2017; Tran, 2017 & Phisalaphong et al., 2017). Interstate trade allows
Indonesian exporters to sell goods to overseas communities. This transaction can increase the country's foreign
exchange earnings. Thus, the wealth of the state increases because foreign exchange is one source of state
revenue. Foreign exchange is one important factor that can move the wheels of a country's economy, especially
the international economy of a country (Fernando et al., 2017; Yoshimatsu, 2017; Nesti and Tan, 2017; Khaliqi
et al., 2018 & Yi, 2018). The benefit of foreign exchange, all import export process, service provision, and
various economic activities related to the international world and friendly countries will be more smoothly, and
can provide important economic benefits.
4. Conclusions
The results show that The Export Value of The North Sumatera in United States to The North Sumatera
influence to the Economic Growth. This study was conducted in 2 countries originating from Japan and USA.
Future research should be observed from other continents.
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