DGL 34-431

GUIDELINE
Document Classification: Controlled Disclosure

Title: Eskom Methodology for Reference: 34-431
Network Master plans and
Network Development plans Document Type: DGL
Revision: 0
Effective date: MAY 2007
Total pages: 77
Revision date: MAY 2010

TESCOD APPROVED
COMPILED BY APPROVED BY FUNCTIONAL RESP AUTHORISED BY
Signed Signed Signed Signed

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
E Bunge - Eskom C G Carter-Brown A Bekker MN Bailey

M du Preez - Planning SC for TESCOD CMDT for MD (Dx)
NETGroup Chairman
Content
Page
Foreword...........................................................................................................................................3
Introduction .......................................................................................................................................5
1. Scope .......................................................................................................................................6
2. Normative References .............................................................................................................7
3. Definitions and Abbreviations ..................................................................................................8
4. Planning Methodology Philosophy.........................................................................................13
4.1. Background of the Electricity Supply Industry (ESI)..........................................................13
4.2. Global Planning Methodologies.........................................................................................13
4.3. International Trends...........................................................................................................15
4.4. Planning Methodologies ....................................................................................................17
4.5. The Alternatives Method....................................................................................................18
4.6. Horizon Year – Staging Years ...........................................................................................21
4.7. Scenario Methods..............................................................................................................21
4.8. Multiple Objective Evaluation ............................................................................................22
4.9. Trade-off and Risk .............................................................................................................24
4.10. Sensitivity Studies ............................................................................................................26
5. Eskom’s Planning Process ....................................................................................................27
6. Methodology ..........................................................................................................................32
7. General Requirements...........................................................................................................54
8. Reporting................................................................................................................................59
9. Bibliography ...........................................................................................................................62
Annex A Planning Activities - Checklist.........................................................................................64
Annex B Investment Criteria except from the Distribution Network Code.....................................67
Annex C DESCRIPTION OF THE FORMAT OF A NMP / NDP SUMMARY REPORT................69
Annex D Impact assessment form.................................................................................................74
This Guideline’s review date as expired and will be incorporated into the Strategic Planning PCM.
All its contents are still valid for the development of Master Plans and Network Development Plans
JFScholtz/May’07 (Rev 0) to ensure traceability
DOCUMENT CLASSIFICATION: CONTROLLED DISCLOSURE
Eskom Planning Methodology for Network Reference: 34-431
Master Plans and Network Development Plans Revision: 0
Page: 2 of 77
Tables
Table 4-1: Planning Process ......................................................................................................... 18
Table 4-2: Ranking of system Expansion Alternatives .................................................................. 23
Figures
Figure 3-1: Typical Planning Horizons - Source: H Lee Willis [10].................................................. 9
Figure 3-2: Time Perspective of NMP’s vs. NDP’s......................................................................... 11
Figure 4-1: Steps in Alternatives Approach of Network Planning Methodology............................. 19
Figure 4-2: Trade-off between level of detail and alternatives ....................................................... 20
Figure 5-1: Eskom’s Planning Process...........................................................................................28
Figure 7-1: Alignment of DPA’s / CRA’s with NMP’s / NDP’s......................................................... 55
Figure 7-2: Example of an NDP schedule for a Region ................................................................. 57
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Foreword
During April 2006 Eskom Management took the decision to undertake the Universal Access Plan
(UAP), which will provide a comprehensive expansion plan aimed at accelerating the pace of
Electrification to ensure 100% access to electricity in South Africa by 2012.
Other drivers for comprehensive electricity network planning include:
the national Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (ASGISA), a
Government initiative aimed at achieving and sustaining a higher economic growth rate to
ultimately halve poverty and unemployment by 2014
the need to make additional capacity available due to rapid load growth
the need for extensive refurbishment due to the age and performance of equipment and
networks in certain areas
the increasing lead times required for environmental assessments, servitude acquisition and
procurement of equipment
the findings of the CTAD audit on the network planning environment
In support of these initiatives, it will be necessary to ensure that adequate network capacity is available
to supply the anticipated load demand. This will be done by conducting timeous Network Master
Planning (NMP) and Network Development Planning (NDP) studies. This document summarises the
standard approach to be adopted by all parties required to execute studies and compile NMP’s and
NDP’s on behalf of Eskom Distribution.
A priority need has been identified for a guideline to define the compilation of both NMP’s and NDP’s
for Eskom’s Distribution networks. Information needs to be presented to decision-makers and
stakeholders in a consistent manner. This document will also provide network planners with a common
format for management summary reports, and guide the planner as to the content required.
The aim of this document is to provide guidelines for the network planning environment with the driving
forces being:
a means to ensure that minimum network & environmental requirements are stated and complied
with
a basis from which to investigate network problems and encourage improvement
a common way of presenting decision-making information for the use by managers
a means for planners and other Eskom personnel to justify its decisions in the face of adverse
stakeholder reaction
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Revision History
This is a new document, which has been classified as a ‘Guideline’.

Date Rev. Compiler Remarks
April 2007 B E Bunge First published for comments
May 2007 0 E Bunge Document published.
This document shall apply throughout Eskom Holdings Limited, its divisions, subsidiaries and entities
wherein Eskom has a controlling interest.
Authorisation
This document has been seen and accepted by:

Name Designation
Chris du Toit Network Planning Manager - Central

Monde Bala Network Planning Manager - Northern
Riaan Smit Network Planning Manager - Western
Mongezi Nyengane Network Planning Manager - Southern
Mike Pallet Network Planning Manager - Eastern
Kobus Barnard Network Planning Manager - North West
Development team
Ed Bunge Eskom MPM Project Leader
Clinton Carter-Brown Eskom Planning SC Chairman
Riaan Smit Eskom - Western Region
Simphiwe Hashe Eskom - Southern Region
Paul Lambrechts Eskom - North West Region
Peter Sekhuto Eskom - Northern Region
Chris du Toit Eskom - Central Region
Sanjian Malapermal Eskom - IARC
Marius du Preez NETGroup
Melville Fish NETGroup
Deon Vrey NETGroup
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Introduction
“The objective of distribution planning is to provide an orderly and economic expansion of equipment
and facilities to meet the utility’s future electricity demand with an acceptable level of reliability.”
H. Lee Willis [10].
Delivery of electric power is a capital-intensive business. The quantity of power needed its location and
when it will be needed; all have to be planned well in advance. The network planner’s task is to
determine an orderly and economical expansion of assets that meets Eskom’s future electricity
demand with an acceptable level of operability and reliability.
Typically the shortest planning lead-time depends on the lead-time of the assets needed to serve the
forecasted loads. For example, if the asset creation process requires two years to approve, design,
construct and commission a proposed substation and power line, then a utility can get by with plans for
expenditure up to only two years in advance. It may however miss out on other opportunities if its
planners do not adopt a longer term integrated expansion planning philosophy.
Planners should always be looking as far ahead as possible in an attempt to integrate the planning of
generation, transmission, sub-transmission, reticulation and demand side options, to ensure that the
expansion of networks and the utilisation of assets are optimal.
In Distribution, this means that various planning lead times are used, for example:
a 20 year horizon is typically used for integrated planning - generally referred to as Network
Master Planning or long term planning
a 5-10 year horizon is typically used for the orderly and economic expansion of distribution assets
- generally referred to as Network Development Planning.
a 2-3 year horizon is typically used for detailed planning & design - generally referred to as Project
Planning
This document addresses both NMP’s and NDP’s. Eskom’s entire distribution network area will be
covered by a number of regionally-based NMP’s and sub-regionally based NDP’s. These plans are to
be reviewed periodically, triggered by changes in the load forecast or quality of supply or at a set time
interval.
Together NMP’s and NDP’s are used as:
business tools to ensure that the capital expenditure required in the short, medium and long-term
can be estimated and managed,
a means to ensure that the networks in an area are kept in a capable state with respect to load
growth, network reliability and safety,
a means to optimise the network requirements for appropriate performance, quality of supply
(QOS), refurbishment and operations, and
reference documents that give the status, and projected status, of networks in an area (i.e. can be
used as “System Information Documents” or quick-reference manuals by Managers).
The capital projects identified in the NMP and/or NDP processes will be implemented via the Eskom
Capital Investment Process (CIP). This process is well documented in procedure ESKSCSPVBBC2.
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Master Plans and Network Development Plans Revision: B
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1. Scope
This document will address the planning philosophy and methodology for NMP’s and NDP’s in
Eskom’s Distribution Business. It is applicable to Eskom Holdings (Pty) Limited, Distribution Division,
all staff and Consultants appointed to compile NMP’s and/or NDP’s on behalf of Eskom.
The requirements for NMP’s & NDP’s for all sub-transmission and reticulation networks owned and
managed by Eskom’s Distribution Group (see definition in item 3) are specified in the various sections
of this document. Where applicable, it will address integration requirements with Eskom’s
Transmission System.
While the network planning process requires, amongst other things, inputs regarding electrification,
refurbishment, servitude acquisition and environmental assessments, this document does not cover
the methodology of executing these aspects; however it will make reference to relevant documents
that address these items.
This document provides a guideline for:
defining the study area and the objective of the planning study
managing the production of NMP’s and NDP’s

defining the minimum activities required to compile NMP’s and NDP’s
outlining the format and content of NMP and NDP summary reports
This document is not intended to be a planning policy document, nor a training manual. Some
guidance is provided concerning the desired content in certain sections, and some tips may be
provided regarding the format, but this is not meant to be conclusive or prescriptive. Future revisions
may elaborate on some of the more pertinent sections where a common approach is required.
Sections 4, 5, 6 and 7 form the main portion of the Methodology document and they address both
NMP’s and NDP’s. The following are short descriptions of these sections:
Section 4 addresses the general philosophy of network planning as it developed historically from
both an international and a local point of view
Section 5 is a summary of the preferred methodology for Eskom Distribution based on the
philosophy and fundamentals reflected in Section 4
Section 6 discusses all the components of the planning process in more detail
Section 7 discusses general process and responsibility aspects as they relate to the Eskom
environment
Section 8 provides reporting requirements and illustrative examples of a NMP & a NDP
All its contents are still valid for the development of Master Plans and Network Development Plans
JFScholtz/May’07 (Rev 0) to ensure traceability
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2. Normative References
Parties using this document shall apply the most recent edition of the documents listed below.
The following documents contain provisions that, through reference in the text, constitute requirements
of this standard. At the time of publication, the edition indicated was valid. All controlled documents
are subject to revision, and parties to agreements based on this template are required to investigate
the possibility of applying the most recent edition of the document listed below. Information on
currently valid national and international standards and specifications can be obtained from the
Information Centre and Eskom Documentation Centre at Megawatt Park.
Terms of Reference Framework for NMP’s & NDP’s, Rev 1
The SA Distribution Grid Code, Rev 4 (draft) NERSA document
DISASACP2, Rev B (draft), Network Planning Guideline
Network Planning Reliability Improvement Guideline
ESKSCSPVBBC2, Rev 3, Capital Investment Process (incl. NACVC)
Eskom Distribution GLF Procedure (In Progress)
TSPAG0021, Rev 0, Transmission System Planning Guide (TSPG)
The SA Transmission Grid Code, Rev 0, NERSA document
SCSASACN7, Rev 1, Distribution Voltage Regulation and Apportionment Limits
Eskom Standard Planning Tools and Data (in progress)
NMP Summary Report – Example (in progress)
NDP Summary Report – Example (draft).
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3. Definitions and Abbreviations

This section provides explanations of terms and abbreviations including documents, titles and
departmental references that may cause confusion if not explained, and that are used within this
document.
3.1. Definitions
3.1.1 Alternative: One of a number of possible network plans being evaluated in a study.
3.1.2 Capacity: Potential load that electrical equipment and /or a network can transfer.
3.1.3 CAPEX: Capital Expenditure
3.1.4 Capital Business Plan: A 5-year plan including short to medium term Capital requirements
3.1.5 Control Plant: All plant that is used for protection, telecommunications and metering (i.e.
previously referred to as secondary plant)
3.1.6 Distribution: Eskom’s Distribution Business
3.1.7 Feeder Zone: Supply area of a feeder
3.1.8 Load Zone: An area (typically homogeneous) defined for the purpose of analysis
3.1.9 Option: A more detailed choice or selection within (i.e. subset of) an ‘Alternative’
3.1.10 Primary Plant: All plant that used for transmitting energy to customers
3.1.11 Right-of-Way: Refers to registration of line routes over public property in urban areas
3.1.12 Reticulation System: Typically MV reticulation ≥1kV and ≤33kV, LV reticulation <1kV
3.1.13 Scenario: A postulated future event or sequence of possible events
3.1.14 Servitude: Refers to registration of line routes over private property in urban areas
3.1.15 Strategic Capital Plan: A 20-year plan including long term Capital projections
3.1.16 Study Area: An area indicated on a map defining the planning study area
3.1.17 Substation Zone: Supply area of a substation
3.1.18 Sub-transmission System: Typically 44kV and ≤132kV sub-transmission network
3.1.19 Transmission System: Typically 220kV – 765kV transmission network (unless otherwise
stated)
3.1.20 Wayleave: Refers to line routes in mainly rural areas
3.1.21 “Distribution Networks”: All sub-transmission and reticulation electrical equipment

(substations, lines and cables) owned and managed by Eskom’s Distribution Group, from 132kV to LV
(400/230V).
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3.1.22 Rural Network: Network serving clustered or scattered structures, usually of low density, not
served by well established infrastructure (i.e. roads, water, sewage, electricity).
3.1.23 Urban Network: Networks serving formally or informally built structures, usually of high
density, serviced by well established infrastructure (i.e. roads, water, sewage, electricity).
3.1.24 “Network Planning Process”: This is a process for assessing the ability of all network
infrastructure to meet industry standards in respect of existing load, future load forecasts and reliability
requirements. Figure 3-1 illustrates typical planning horizons required for generation, transmission,
sub-transmission and reticulation.
The intent is to produce a holistic and strategic plan for the area where the dependencies of projects
on each other are stated and where the whole plan is greater than the sum of its individual project
parts. Problems are viewed as an integrated whole where the solution to one might provide all or part
of the solution of another.
The plan can only be as good as the information on which it is based. An important aspect of the
process is therefore to gather as much relevant data about anything that can affect network capability
or performance, e.g. requirements to improve plant reliability, load growth of existing loads, additional
loads and their types, development projects like electrification, condition of plant, etc.
Power System Planning Horizons
S
e
r
v
i
c Generation
e
A Transmission
r
e
a
Sub-transmission
S
i Reticulation
z
e
2 5 15 20
Project Lead Time [years]
Figure 3-1: Typical Planning Horizons - Source: H Lee Willis [10]
3.1.25 “Network Master Plan (NMP)”: A NMP consists of all the documentation that is produced
during the network planning process where the focus is long-term and strategic. This documentation
(i.e. software files and paper records) is required to support the Strategic Capital Plan and needed to
review and revise the plan in the future.
A NMP has the following characteristics:
A long term plan (e.g. 20 year) focusing on strategic network issues such as the selection of
voltage levels, minimising life cycle costs, supporting regional economic and socio-economic
development
This Guideline’s strategies
review date asandexpired
other key objectives
and will beofincorporated
a strategic nature
into the Strategic Planning PCM.
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Establishes a framework for detailed NDP’s, infrastructure expansion programmes and macro
resource allocation
Typically covers at least one or more FSA’s or Transmission substation supply zones
Revised at least every 5 years
A geo-based load forecast based on economic and demographic projections, as well as future
land-use is required
The focus is usually on integration with transmission plans, sub-transmission expansion and
supply requirements for large Electrification areas
NMP’s are generally not used for project release but should allow for the identification and acquisition
of strategic servitudes. NMP’s form the basis for Strategic Environmental Assessments (SEA’s)
3.1.26 “Network Development Plan (NDP)”: A NDP consists of all the documentation that is
produced during the network planning process where the focus is short to medium term in relation to
the NMP. This documentation (i.e. software files and paper records) is required to support the 5-year
Capital Business Plan and is needed to review and revise the plan in the future.
A NDP has the following characteristics:
Logically ring-fenced geographical area dictated by the existing network layout, existing load
density and load forecast (typically covering one or more TSA’s or sub-transmission substation
supply zones). These ring-fenced areas may change as the network/load changes.
The network is studied as a single entity (i.e. holistically). Sub-transmission and reticulation
voltages are used to optimally satisfy the load density. Includes all assets in the ring-fenced area
i.e. sub-transmission and reticulation, lines and cables, substations and control plant.
5-10 year horizon, with 5 year focus to allow for 2-3 year revision cycle and project lead times.
Identification and evaluation of all network requirements such that industry standards are met for
future loads. This is achieved by the coordination and alignment of all departmental plans, e.g.
Electrification Plans, Direct Customer Applications, Refurbishment Plans (Primary Plant & Control
Plant), Operational Plans
The output is an integrated set of projects, including costing estimates and phasing of capital
expenditure, which forms the blueprint of the Capital Business Plan, covering the business
network infrastructure categories, viz. Electrification, Direct Customer, Strengthening,
Refurbishment, Reliability.
The final plan is the optimal set of projects selected from the preferred alternatives using accepted
comparison techniques e.g. the use of lifecycle costing and reliability indicators.
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NMP and NDP reports are not live documents; they provide snap-shots reflecting the network plan(s)
at that point in time, with the respective focus areas illustrated in Figure 3-2 below.
detail conceptual
u NMP
n
c
e
r NDP
t
a
i
0 5 10 15 20
years
Figure 3-2: Time Perspective of NMP’s vs. NDP’s
3.2. Abbreviations
3.2.1 AM/FM: Automated Mapping / Facility Management
3.2.2 CIP: Capital Investment Process
3.2.3 COUE: Cost of Unserved Energy [R/kWh]
3.2.4 CRA: Concept Release Approval (ex-Form 10)
3.2.5 CSA: Customer Service Area
3.2.6 DPA: Development Plan Approval (ex-Form 1)
3.2.7 DSM: Demand Side Management
3.2.8 EDI: Electricity Distribution Industry
3.2.9 EEM: Economic Evaluation Model
3.2.10 EIA: Environmental Impact Assessment
3.2.11 ESI: Electricity Supply Industry
3.2.12 FEM: Financial Evaluation Model
3.2.13 FSA: Field Service Area
3.2.14 GIS: Geographical Information System
3.2.15 HELP: Housing and Electrification Planning
3.2.16 HV: High Voltage ( >33kV )
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3.2.17 IBR: Incentive-Based Regulation
3.2.18 IDP: Integrated Development Plan(ing)
3.2.19 IRP: Integrated Resource Planning
3.2.20 kA: kiloamp (unit of current)
3.2.21 KSACS: Key Sales and Customer Services
3.2.22 kV: kilovolt (unit of voltage)
3.2.23 kVA: kilovolt-ampere (unit of apparent power)
3.2.24 kVArh: kilovar-hour (unit of reactive energy)
3.2.25 kVAr: kilovar or kilovolt-ampere-reactive (unit of reactive power)
3.2.26 kW: kilowatt (unit of real power)
3.2.27 kWh: kilowatt-hour (unit of real energy)
3.2.28 LCC: Life-cycle Cost(ing)
3.2.29 LCP: Least Cost Planning
3.2.30 LED: Local Economic Development
3.2.31 LPU: Large Power User
3.2.32 LV: Low voltage ( <1kV ), typically 400/230V
3.2.33 MD: Maximum (Electricity) Demand [MVA or MW]
3.2.34 MIRR: Modified Internal Rate of Return
3.2.35 MV: Medium Voltage ( ≥1kV; ≤33kV )
3.2.36 NDP: Network Development Plan(ning)
3.2.37 NERSA: National Energy Regulator of South Africa
3.2.38 NMP: Network Master Plan(ning)
3.2.39 NPV: Net Present Value
3.2.40 NRS: National Rationalised Specification
3.2.41 OPEX: Operating Expenditure
3.2.42 PF: Power Factor – the ratio of kW to kVA (over same integrating period)
3.2.43 SCADA: Supervisory, Control and Data Acquisition
3.2.44 SDF: Spatial Development Framework

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3.2.45 SEA: Strategic Environmental Assessment
3.2.46 SPU: Small Power User
3.2.47 TSA: Technical Service Area
4. Planning Methodology Philosophy

4.1. Background of the Electricity Supply Industry (ESI)
The ESI went through an evolutionary process since its inception approximately 100 years ago. Initially
and for many years the business was seen as a high technology business, essential for economic
growth and with a monopolistic characteristic. The default approach all over the world was to declare
the business a natural monopoly to be owned and regulated by government.
Since the early 1970’s this started to change. The business proved to contain all the fundamentals of
any other business was understood more generally and some major disruptions such as the oil
embargoes shook the market.
With the rapid development of new technologies such as information technologies, consumers of
electricity looked at alternatives to reduce the electricity bill. This led to the installation of sophisticated
energy management equipment by consumers to control and optimise the consumption of electrical
energy.
Utilities also realised that by moving towards time of use tariffs they can encourage consumers to alter
their demand patterns and use electricity outside periods of peak demands. This results in saving the
utility the cost to add generation to meet peak demand.
However the combined effect of both consumers managing their demand better and utilities
encouraging them to do so through innovative tariff structures led to the predictability of the demand
trend line being very difficult or often impossible.
This uncertainty in the business challenged the traditional vertically integrated structure of utilities. The
impact of this uncertain demand trend line clearly also challenged the way the expansion of facilities is
planned.
These changes resulted in some changes in the ESI that can be categorised as follows:
Regulated stable environment (pre-1970’s)

Regulated unstable environment (1970 – 1990)
Regulated competitive environment (1990’s onwards)
4.2. Global Planning Methodologies
4.2.1 General
The traditional way of planning in the regulated stable environment was basically as follows:
The responsibilities and mandate of the utility was clear and was strictly controlled by government.
The demand was predictable and a long-term estimate of demand growth was quite possible.
Long term load forecasting was done with a reasonable degree of certainty.
Resources to meet the forecasted demand could be identified far into the future and rather
accurate assumptions could be made about capital expenditure on network infrastructure.
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Different network development alternatives could be compared with certainty and far into the
future. Aspects such as equipment performance, system reliability and financial requirements
could be quantified with an acceptable amount of certainty.
Resource plans could be implemented where the risk was manageable.
The conventional approach to planning could easily optimise the cost of supply to the utility. However,
other planning methods view this aspect of planning as a subset of a more global objective function.
The subsequent sections discuss various types of global methodologies.
4.2.2 Integrated Resource Planning (IRP)
The planning technique adopted in the regulated unstable environment between the 1970’s and 1990’s
is called integrated resource planning and basically involved the following steps:
Utilities were still strongly regulated and the government still influenced management strongly.
It was realised that the demand trend line was less predictable and demand side management
(DSM) options were considered as an alternative to expensive generation expansion, e.g. load
control, time of use tariffs, industrial technologies, etc.
Load forecasting became more difficult and forecasting scenarios and stochastic techniques
became more popular. Load forecasting had to recognise DSM initiatives and the effects of these
on the demand trend line.
Identifying generation resources included new alternatives such as purchasing power and DSM
instead of building expensive new power plants.
Analysing and evaluating all the system expansion alternatives were much more difficult as the
required data increased exponentially and number of options increased significantly.
The optimal plan would eventually be proposed to satisfy policymakers and the utility objectives.
Note that the cost to the consumer or customer never really featured in the final decision process.
4.2.3 Least Cost Planning (LCP)
Conflicting definitions for LCP are common in the literature. The initial objective was to include value
base techniques as discussed below where the cost to the consumer or customer is incorporated into
the picture.
LCP also originated in the regulated unstable environment and is followed in the initial stages of
market liberalisation. Basically the LCP process is similar to the IRP process as described above but
with the following distinct optimisation criteria that seem to dominate:
Minimise tariffs
Minimise capital requirements
Minimise kWh (energy) consumption
Minimise losses
Note that the above optimisation criteria if not applied carefully can produce conflicting results. An
example could be that when tariffs are minimised (lowered), consumption can most certainly go up.
However, when skilfully applied LCP can result in satisfactory network augmentation in the regulated
unstable environment.
4.2.4 Value Based Planning
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One major component missing in the planning processes discussed above is that the cost of
unreliability of the power system or the unavailability of electricity supply to the customer is not
factored into the total cost. Lately the concept of minimising total cost – to both the utility and to the
customer is becoming the norm to select the most optimal network expansion alternative.
In order to calculate indices such as expected unserved energy (EUE) and loss of load probability
(LOLP), it is necessary to employ probability techniques. Such indices can be used to compare
network expansion alternatives.
Also, if a customer damage function can be derived for each load point on the network and the annual
expected unserved energy for each load point could be calculated, it is possible to calculate the cost of
power interruptions to the customers.
Calculating probability indices for the power system calls for statistically based techniques such as
Monte Carlo simulation and Contingency enumeration techniques. By using outage frequency and
outage duration data for each component of the network, the probability of interruptions at each load
point can be calculated.
Often the reliability of each substation is calculated first and these parameters are then used in the
network reliability calculations to calculate total network reliability.
Generally speaking value based techniques as described above are more suitable to assist with
planning decisions in an environment where a greater amount of uncertainty exists as is common in
liberalised whole sale markets. Electricity market reform is sweeping through the world and will most
certainly influence the way utilities plan the development of their network – such influences will also
have an influence in the South African electricity supply industry.
4.3. International Trends
4.3.1 Demand Forecast
In the competitive environment, the ability to forecast demand accurately is a competitive advantage.
This fact may make it difficult to collect good data on future demand. There is an incentive (from
network users) to provide optimistic forecasts because this ensures that there is network capacity
provided in the normative plan. It is important to view demand forecasts as an uncertainty, which may
be modelled as part of the scenarios for network reinforcement uncertainty.
In network planning, the difference between a low and a high demand forecast is in the timing that
reinforcements are needed. Hence, an optimistic forecast may not be much of a concern. In a
network plan, the robust projects tend to be those which address the next few MW of future demand,
in a timeframe which is shorter and has less uncertainty.
This data may be developed on a macro-economic basis (top-down approach) and/or by integrating
forecasts from individual distributors and utilities (bottom-up approach).
4.3.2 Changes in Industry Structure
Internationally, the power sector is still in the process of transforming to a competitive environment,
and there are several possible structures that may come out of this process, then the industry structure
should be considered as an uncertainty at this point.
Industry structure largely affects how new generation is allowed into the energy market, and how these
participate in the day-to-day supply of power. Primarily, structure is defined by national law and/or
regulation. The most extreme form, from the point of view of network planning, is the “disaggregate”
structure. Such a structure introduces a huge uncertainty in the future generation pattern. In this
structure, any merchant may develop new generation without restriction to type (or fuel), size,
schedule or location. Other structures then vary with respect to restrictions by type (or fuel), size,
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schedule or location. Some of these generators could be embedded in the sub-transmission or even
reticulation system with a major effect on the available capacity on the networks.
4.3.3 Operating Problems
One way to view existing operating problems is that at sometime earlier a network plan failed to
anticipate and provide a solution for the problem. In this sense, a good network plan is one which
ensures that existing network problems do not continue into or get worse in the future. In a
competitive environment, operating problems become a larger issue when they lead to unplanned
operating costs or reduction in competition.
Congestions are network limitations that prevent the market from operating at its best price. In nodal
pricing structures, this is manifested by locational differences in the price of electricity which are not
solely due to network losses. This phenomenon is typical in liberal electricity markets and South Africa
may still be some way off this situation.
Knowing the nature and specifics of congestions makes it possible to reduce the number of generation
alternatives.
4.3.4 Other Trends
Trend not to do long term planning. Lower levels of regulation leads to a lack of clarity on issues
such as the obligation to supply electricity. This in turn results in much less long term planning being
done.
The network on the other hand, is a natural monopoly. Often no appropriate market signals are
available to ensure investment in network capacity.
The above factors induce a trend not to do long term planning. The absence of such planning makes
decisions on network reinforcement and expansion very difficult.
Accommodating uncertainty in long term planning. The use of probabilistic methods in doing
system planning seems promising to assist in overcoming the dilemma described above with
uncertainty – especially within the investment range.
More and more tools are becoming available on the market that can be used to do probabilistic
analysis. With the advancement in computer technologies the possibility to analyse a seemingly
unsolvable problem becomes more plausible.
Tools that can do probabilistic calculations employing more accurate AC-load flow techniques whilst
also recognising substation reliability are commercially available. Such tools can solve many of the
current problems associated with uncertainty. Doing such analysis, i.e. incorporating system dynamics,
however seems still to be some way off.
Available tools as described above can analyse extensive contingency lists and calculate the impact
and probability of each contingency. Such contingencies can be ranked in order of severity based on
different selectable criteria. When combining the probability calculations on the network with
recognised substation reliability calculations many of the current obstacles to do planning in the
unregulated competitive environment with its greater levels of uncertainty can be addressed.
Sources of uncertainty. The following factors can be regarded as new sources of uncertainty:
Line loading can change drastically due to trading

Renewable generation sources connect and disconnect with greater randomness than traditional
generation sources and are often embedded into the sub-transmission and reticulation system
No or very little central coordination
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An unwillingness to invest in capacity leads to the system being operated closer to limits
Network capacity can suddenly change due to the following:
Changes in weather (line and transformer ratings)

Storms (high winds, lightning and ice loading)
Equipment failures (due to age / lack of maintenance)
The following factors can lead to major load variations:
Weather changes
Economic growth
Demand side management
Means for addressing uncertainty. The two most common ways of handling uncertainty in network
planning are:
By considering network alternatives

By probability functions
Probability functions are technically interesting once the functions are defined. In reality, the
probabilities are little more than guesses. Network alternatives provide a more practical approach, and
avoid the pitfalls of attempting to quantify probabilities beyond the available information.
Network alternatives are developed based on feasible conditions which may impact the siting of
transmission substations for example. Such network alternatives are selected to represent a range of
conditions for which the network system must perform reliably. Network alternatives may also be used
to represent a combination of uncertainties. For example, if there are three possible future scenarios
in the pattern of transmission development, and two possible future scenarios for load growth, then a
total of six distinct sub-transmission network alternatives may be developed.
4.4. Planning Methodologies
A variety of planning approaches are in use worldwide. The success of specific methods depends on
the type of system and planning environment. In this section, we offer a comprehensive review of the
methods that are in use.
In recent times, the success of planning methods has been largely influenced by the industry structure.
In the following review, we pay special attention to those methods which have shown adaptability to
deregulated, competitive industry structures.
Generally speaking, planning is a decision-making process that can be broken down into five main
steps as shown in Table 4-1: Planning Process
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Table 4-1: Planning Process
Step Activity Notes
1 Identify the problem (includes Explicitly identify the range of application and its limits.
gathering & analysing data) Try to see the problem in terms of the goals and write
it down.
2 Determine the goals This tells you where you are aiming to go. What goals
are to be achieved? Review the company’s mission.
What is to be minimised?
3 Identify the alternatives What alternative solutions are available? This is a

critical step. Never assume that one man can see all
the alternatives. This should be a group session.
4 Evaluate the alternatives Evaluate all the alternatives on a sound basis.
5 Select the best alternatives Select the alternative that best satisfies the goals with
respect to the problem
Source: Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, H Lee Willis [10]
In recent times, the success of planning methods has been largely influenced by the industry structure.
In the following review, we pay special attention to those methods which have shown adaptability to
deregulated and competitive industry structures.
4.5. The Alternatives Method
This is a simple and straight forward method which is useful for systems where the alternatives are
limited, planning is for short-term, risks are minimal and cost involved is relatively small. The basic
stages to this method are shown in Figure 4-1.
An essential feature of this process is the periodic screening of alternatives from an economic and
performance standpoint to avoid carrying out detailed studies on alternatives that are not competitive.
Thus as the planning engineer progresses from one state to the next, the number of alternatives to
investigate is reduced. However, the remaining alternatives are subjected to more detailed
investigations.
The first stage of the planning process involves the identification of existing and proposed network
capacity and load centres, existing network circuits, and corridors for additional network circuits. To
some extent, corridor constraints will play a role in determining the characteristics of lines that can be
added.
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Identify
Basic Alternatives
Engineer Alternatives to
Functional Equivalency
(Screening)
Select Preferred
Alternatives
Optimize Preferred
Alternatives
Select Final Plan

(Preferred Alternatives)
Figure 4-1: Steps in Alternatives Approach of Network Planning Methodology
The identification of basic alternatives, usually involves steady-state investigations to determine the
network capacity needed to ensure that all components are operating within prescribed limits
(generally thermal transfer limits and voltage levels) under normal static conditions. Alternatives
considered may include adding circuits to an existing servitude, upgrading a servitude to a higher
voltage level, or building circuits over a new servitude.
Once a set of feasible alternatives has been established, the next stage is to plan these alternatives to
satisfy system performance (reliability) criteria. This involves the execution of steady state studies to
determine what additional modifications are required so that each option satisfies the prescribed post-
disturbance and equipment outage tests. It is not unusual for some alternatives to lose their economic
advantage during this stage. The primary objective of this stage of testing is to develop a set of
functionally equivalent alternatives so that they can be realistically compared. The selection process
to reduce the number of alternatives to a final, small set of prime alternatives can then be based on
costs, environmental considerations, licensing requirements, or adaptability to changing conditions.
In the last stage of the planning process, the final set of prime alternatives is investigated and refined
to provide the degree of detail required for specification of equipment. These studies may include the
analysis of operational contingencies and protection requirements. Although the investment necessary
to satisfy the performance requirements studied in the final stage may differ from one alternative to
another, they are generally far outweighed by the investments required to satisfy the planning criteria.
Hence it is quite reasonable to approach the problem in the sequential manner described above.
Any network alternative considered during the planning process should meet the system performance
and reliability requirements. Extensive testing of various system conditions for performance
compliance is an essential as well as time-consuming part of any network planning process. The level
of detail varies with the type of technical study and the number of alternatives being studied, the stage
of planning etc. Typical trades-off between the level of detail and the number of alternatives studied is
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A variety of computational procedures have evolved to aid the planner in performing network analysis.
Because of the large scale of the computations needed to handle a continually growing network, the
analytical techniques have been adapted to the requirements of the digital computer
Begin
Planning Studies
More Simplified Power Flow Less

Alternatives Studies Detail
AC Power Flow
Studies
Stability
Studies
Special Transient
Problems
Short Circuit
Studies
Line Design
Studies
Fewer Relay More Detail

Alternatives Coordination
Satisfactory
Alternatives
Figure 4-2: Trade-off between level of detail and alternatives
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4.6. Horizon Year – Staging Years
In a long-range network plan, the period covered may be in the range of 10 to 20 years into the future.
A year-by-year incremental planning approach will not give a correct choice of new network capacity.
This is especially true for introduction of new technology, introduction of new voltages, replacement
decisions, etc.
In order to overcome these problems related to incremental planning, the concept of horizon year
planning is used. In this case, a lowest cost network plan for the horizon year (i.e., 20th year in a 20
year planning study) is developed. Note that if necessary and proper, an optimisation method may be
applied to this horizon year plan.
Once an optimised or a lowest cost horizon year plan is available, then several network staging plans
may be developed for the planning period. Staging at every 5 years is usually considered appropriate.
In a very high load growth system, staging at say 2 to 3 years (if necessary annual plans) may be
required. The staging intervals may be different from one stage to the next. This concept keeps in
focus the long-term needs of the system in proper perspective. For example, the need or no need to
introduce a new voltage level into the system becomes very clear because we are taking a long-term
view. Also building or installing multiple low capacity lines or equipment with higher total cost is
avoided. The end effect impact is also minimised. Introduction of new technology and its benefits may
be included.
The flexibility associated with forward planning as well as look back feature are retained via staging
plans. If necessary, horizon year plan may be revised to adjust for staging requirements. During this
adjustment other lesser economic plans which were discarded should be taken into account. Also,
after adjusting the horizon year plan, the staging plans should be revisited and properly adjusted to
mesh with the overall plan.
Once the staging plans are complete, the present worth or other types of analysis may be performed
for different horizon year and corresponding staging year plans. The selection of the most suitable plan
among the low cost plans may be accomplished. This step would be similar to alternative approach.
4.7. Scenario Methods
In the past, stable economic environment, economies of scale of facilities and equipment, short lead
times, higher load growth rates and similar factors created a planning environment which was more
predictable. However, the situation has changed and if older methods are blindly applied in the present
environment, the plans will not be suitable or economic. Some of these uncertainties include:
Load growth (power and energy)

Renewable and distributed generation
Construction times
Environmental issues
New technology
Capital and financial factors
Institutional and Government regulations
One method of addressing the question of uncertainties is through scenario-based methods [3]. The
scenarios essentially reflect several possible futures with the idea of being able to accommodate
different future conditions, usually out of the control of the planner.
In concept, the scenario method involves:
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possible scenarios and will be incorporated into the Strategic Planning PCM.
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Analyse each scenario (i.e. it’s likelihood and impact)

Select the best network alternative(s)
The scenarios may be based on a set of likely possibilities or selected on the basis of reasonable
extremes.
Defining different scenarios is to identify the key attributes such as load growth, load distribution (bus
load forecast), export, import, generation, technology options. Based on each of these attributes,
several scenarios addressing one or several factors are defined. Then for each scenario, a total cost
for the acceptable network plan (alternative) is developed. Any one of the methods as discussed
earlier may be used for determining or selecting an acceptable network alternative.
Once acceptable network alternatives for all the scenarios of interest have been completed, a network
plan needs to be developed. This network plan may be in the form of:
a robust plan or
one of the alternative plans, but with a strategy to cope with the undesirable events, should a
different scenario arise
Thus, the scenario-based method permits the planner to identify the commonalities or differences in
various scenarios for different future conditions. The commonalities identify safe or low risk scenarios.
For example, if introduction of a new voltage is common to all the scenarios, then it is safe to state that
the basic decision to introduce a new voltage will be proper. The differences at the same time point out
critical decisions that need to be made by the planner.
This scenario-based method in conjunction with horizon year planning concept provides a very useful
planning approach. The plans developed on this basis will be flexible, may be changed with minimal
expenditure to meet altered conditions and minimise the possibility of non-utilisation or under-
utilisation of installed facilities and equipment.
4.8. Multiple Objective Evaluation
4.8.1 General
Traditional economic comparison and selection of a plan is based on the concept of least or smallest
net present value of competing alternatives. The assumption here is that the various competing
alternatives have been filtered to meet a common system performance requirement or to be more
specific, a common reliability planning criteria (may be deterministic or probabilistic). Consequently it is
presumed that the benefits of different competing alternatives are more or less the same and final
selection of lowest net present value plan results in highest benefit to cost ratio.
Also, in some instances, the financial analysis is done on this most economic plan to assess the
financial viability and impact on the utility. If the financial analysis indicates infeasibility or adverse
impact, the most economic plan is adjusted or the second most economic plan is selected.
The above approach is very simple and straightforward and this was suitable until the last decade.
This approach may still be suitable for smaller projects which are local in nature. But for larger
projects, a single minimisation objective of lowest net present value is not sufficient. Many different
dimensions and impacts need to be considered. Thus, final selection of a most suitable plan is based
on multiple objectives, rather than on one or two objectives. These multiple objectives to be
considered depend upon particular project, location and situations. Some of the attributes associated
with these multiple objectives include:
Net Present Value (NPV)

Servitudes, right-of-way or wayleaves, and terrain
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Reliability
Financing
Operation flexibility
Dependence on outside sources

Constructability
These attributes cannot always be easily quantified, let alone on a common basis. However, two
different approaches, namely ranking and decision functions for evaluation of multiple objectives has
been used for this purpose.
4.8.2 Ranking
Each attribute for a given alternative is ranked. An example is shown in Table 4-2.
Table 4-2: Ranking of system Expansion Alternatives
System Expansion Alternative

Attributes A B C
Lowest life-time cost (NPV) 2 3 1
Least environmental impact 1 2 3
Least interference with operations 2 2 1
Least impact on neighbours 2 2 1
Highest network strength 3 2 1
Most favourable financing requirements 1 2 3
The first attribute, namely ‘lowest life-time cost’ is easily quantified and ranked. Obviously, this is one
of the most important attributes.
The second attribute 'least environmental impact' may be quantified roughly based on total length of a
new servitude required. However, for a more realistic measure of this attribute, it is necessary to
review each individual line addition. The end result shown is a qualitative ranking which may conform
to the ranking obtainable from consideration of a total new servitude length.
The next attribute 'least interference with operation' measures the temporary operating limitations
caused by circuit upgrading or replacement of old lines with new, higher capacity lines on the same
servitude. While the operating cost penalties associated with the construction period might be
quantified and merged with the present worth objective, a ranking based on quantitative consideration
may also be needed or preferred.
Minimum utilisation of neighbouring systems may be an objective in some cases. Measures of this
objective may be quantified based on anticipated loading of neighbouring systems. Otherwise, a
qualitative ranking may be more appropriate.
The ability to handle more severe contingencies than those specified by design criteria is an important
advantage. This network strength objective can only be properly quantified through probabilistic
reliability analysis. However, deterministic analysis of representative multiple contingencies will often
suffice to rank the reinforcement alternatives according to this objective.
An overall comparison of rankings shows that alternative C is first, followed by alternatives B and C. If
the environmental impact and the financing are more important than the others, then the final choice
may be alternative B. This systematic ranking of reinforcement alternatives for specific contingencies
provides a powerful means of discarding "second-best" systems. However, the ranking procedure may
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fail to provide a clear cut answer because of the qualitative (and hence subjective) nature of the
ranking of conflicting attributes and uncertainty as to the relative importance of these attributes.
Note: The attributes could be assigned a weighting-factor. The weights could then be varied from time
to time in accordance with the prevailing business priorities, e.g. reliability may be a focus now, but the
focus could shift to reinforcement in the future.
4.8.3 Utility Functions
The conflicting objectives and their qualitative nature can be resolved, if these can be somehow
expressed or converted to common units of measure. This approach is used by economists and is
called "utility theory". Utility theory can be used to help construct the objective function, including the
proper structure and relative weightings. The approach depends on an assessment of probabilities
associated with various random events as well as on the requirement that different attributes be
combined into a single measure of utility. For example, economic reliability, environmental, health and
safety, public attitude, regulatory, and a number of other attributes can be more or less well defined
and computed. They can be combined into a single objective function like
U = a * COST + b * Reliability Index + c * R-O-W + ......
In theory, the alternative which minimises the objective function is the best alternative.
This type of approach has several advantages:
it is normally possible to find a most suitable (or acceptable may be more appropriate) plan,
the mathematical procedure is more or less mechanical and fairly easy to apply, and
the approach has a certain appeal of being scientific and analytical.
However, there are several disadvantages as well. These include:
artificial units to measure the relative ranking of different plans,
complex constraints may make the problem difficult to solve and in some other cases make them
simpler,
every consideration has to be reduced to a single, albeit weighted measure,
subjective weighting functions are needed, and
the optimality of the results depends on the weighting factors.
4.9. Trade-off and Risk
The earlier discussion showed that it is very difficult or sometimes not possible to combine and
optimise a plan which has multiple and often conflicting objectives. Thus, a means to resolve conflicts
and trade off different attributes with a plan as well as among competing plans is necessary. Such a
method called "Trade-off / Risk" has been developed. A brief description of this method as applied to
network planning follows.
Trade-off analysis is based on the assumption that consideration of more than one single scalar
criterion is necessary for determining an optimum plan. This, in essence, means that any time a plan
has to be optimised with additional considerations beyond NPV criterion, conflicts may arise and
reasonable compromises are necessary. With the use of trade-off method, planners are able to
consider a wide variety of alternatives in an organised manner. The method permits the planner to
eliminate unacceptable or inferior plans, based on multiple objectives and focus on a small set of plans
(referred to as decision set) which represents reasonable compromises.
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For example, consider the question of network alternatives, including new lines, new voltages,
upgrades, series capacitor compensations, etc. In the trade-off analysis method, a technically
acceptable (system performance) plan for each option is developed. Then appropriate attributes for
each option or plan are defined. Multi-dimension consideration of several attributes simultaneously is
possible. From this type of analysis a subset of plans which minimises various attributes may be easily
selected. Once a decision set of plans has been identified, further analysis may be made to
accomplish final selection of a preferred plan. There are various methods and implications regarding
selection of a decision set and final plan.
Risk and uncertainty are particularly important when the general conditions are such that
investment is large, and
degree of uncertainty is very high.
Uncertainty may be defined as those outcomes in the future which are beyond ones professional
knowledge or control. For example, load growth (tied to economic growth), fuel prices, laws and
regulations, etc. have high uncertainty. Because of the uncertainty, the planner and consequently the
utility is exposed to some risk. Risk has several dimensions. One of them is that the chosen plan will
be regrettable. For example, a utility builds to interconnect to another utility for a large amount of
power. If the supplying utility fails or cannot supply the power, the importing utility will be left to cope
with a severe shortage of power. If this scenario is highly probable, then an alternative plan or building
own generation may be a more attractive option. A second aspect is that new facilities in a chosen
plan become surplus or under-utilised. A third dimension is to protect or hedge against the adverse
effects of a chosen plan. The risk faced by an electric utility may be classified into different categories.
The technical risks are varied and these include outage or failure of equipment and facilities,
unexpected load increase or unsatisfactory performance of system, equipment and facilities. These
are addressed during system planning through adequacy tests. The financial risk is closely coupled to
technical risk. Thus, the overall objective is to maximise benefits and minimise risk at the same time.
This requires certain trade-offs.
A trade-off risk analysis essentially has four steps:
Perform trade-off risk analysis for each future and find a global decision set
Measure the robustness of each plan in the global decision set
If no plan is completely robust, measure exposure
Develop hedges (new options) to protect against adverse futures
This is an iterative process and is carried out until a satisfactory and an acceptable plan is obtained.
The degree of risk is basically measured by robustness. A robust plan essentially satisfies the
requirements of the hypothesized uncertain future. For example, if a new network voltage level is
needed even if the load growth is eventually half or double the load growth rate used in the base case
plan, then the selection of a new network voltage may be termed to be robust. However, in practice,
no single plan is absolutely robust or poses no risk. Then, the exposure of the selected plan is the
difference between the plan that would have been selected if we had perfect foresight. In other words,
if the load growth turns out to be half of what was assumed for a base case plan, the unused capacity
or the equivalent investment is the exposure of the base case plan. Thus, trade-off risk analysis
provides a formal method of minimising risk, measure exposure, and provide alternatives.
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4.10. Sensitivity Studies
This is a well known and an important part of a planning study. The primary purpose of this type of
study is to evaluate the effect of small changes in the input data such as load forecast, energy/demand
purchase cost, capital cost, interest rate, losses and other similar factors. Sometimes these studies are
also used to understand the effect of somewhat lesser known parameters on the plan.
The main reason that the sensitivity study came into vogue was that the engineers realised that the
plans that were formulated were based on forecast values which inherently contained various degrees
of uncertainties. In order to understand the effect of changes in these parameters, the values of these
parameters, one at a time, are perturbed by small amounts (usually in both positive and negative
directions), and the effect on the overall plan is evaluated. In a narrow sense, this method tested the
final selected plan for its robustness. As stated in the earlier section, robustness basically measures
the degree of risk. From the sensitivity point of view, if the performance index (whatever it may be)
changes are not significant for parameter changes; then we interpret the plan to be robust for this
parameter.
However, we need to make a distinction here. The overall robustness or risk analysis, from a macro-
sense, is performed through horizon year, scenario, optimisation, or trade-off methods. Once low cost
alternative is selected, then a sensitivity analysis (in a micro-sense) is performed by perturbing various
important factors one at a time to make sure that the selected plan is not highly sensitive to these
factors. If the sensitivity analysis shows that the plan is relatively highly sensitive to certain
parameters, then further fine tuning of the selected plans or a review of study assumptions, review of
plans or rework of plans may be warranted. A whole range of parameters needs to be tested. In order
to keep the amount of work to a minimum, as well as the results to be meaningful, the sensitivity
analysis should be limited to significant factors or parameters as well as the range of perturbation
should be appropriate.
During planning studies, for smaller capitalisation and improvement projects, sensitivity studies may
provide a robustness test, but not for relatively large projects. Also, sensitivity studies are more
meaningful for quantitative evaluation, but are difficult to perform for qualitative factors or parameters.
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5. Eskom’s Planning Process

5.1. Overview
The discussions in section 4 describe how planning approaches vary with industry needs and how
industry needs change over time. Utilities have to consider their unique requirements and develop a
planning approach that works the best for them.
Section 4 summarises international trends and best practice. At the time Eskom Distribution
considered documenting the way they prefer to do NMP and how they want the more detailed NDP
process to fit within the NMP process, it was decided that the following issues needed special attention
and consideration:
Geo-based load forecasting techniques to better address the spatial nature of the power system
together with land-use considerations
Expansion / reinforcement for outstanding
Electrification areas
Reliability considerations to better address network
performance, risk, uncertainty and the probabilistic
nature of the power system
Long term network renewal planning to cater for the
rapidly increasing portion of the power system that is
approaching, or has reached, the end of economic life
Environmental issues and servitude acquisition
requirements
The remaining sections will summarise the preferred methodology based on aspects of Eskom’s
historically tried and tested method but enhanced with new elements as bulleted above. The improved
methodology should stay in line with international trends as discussed in section 4, and still be
pragmatic enough to be implemented with the current skills set within network planning. It is envisaged
that the methodology will evolve over time to stay in step with the requirements of the South African
industry and economy.
Figure 5-1 below illustrates in a simplified manner a general process to conduct network planning and
includes new features identified as necessary to stay in step with industry requirements. This process
applies to both NMP as well as NDP. It is a holistic approach and addresses all aspects of Eskom
Distributions network infrastructure planning, including the bulk supplies to support the national
Electrification drive.
The sections below provide a high-level discussion of the elements of each task displayed in the
process. Each section is indexed by means of a small graphic relating back to the relevant stage
depicted in Figure 5-1. It should be appreciated that network planning is not a simple one-through
process and that some activities therefore span more than one stage.
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Minimum Capital Investment Scenario
Millions
18
16
14 Total Investment by 2010

= R 30,643,000
12
10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2018 2020 2024
Year
Study Gather & Verify Compile Analyse Identify Capital Reporting,

Objective Network Load Existing & Plan Approval
& Review of & Load Forecast Network Evaluate & &
Study Area Information & Strategic Capability Alternatives Financial Project
[5.2] [5.3] Study & Define [5.7] Evaluation Initiation
[5.4] Problem [5.5] [5.8] [5.9]
Statement
•Define study • Geographical • Electrification Plan • Build network • Formulate • Select Preferred • Reporting
objective background data • Land use study models alternatives Alternatives - conceptual plan
•Compile map • Network asset • Demographic study • Analyse existing • Map alternatives • Capital - geographical
showing existing information • Econometric study network capability • Technical Requirement Plan presentation
NMP/NDP • Load (MD) profiles • Zoning exercise - present loads evaluation - Phasing • Approval
boundaries • Reports, Guides, • Load forecast - future loads - load flow • Financial - NMP / NDP
• Map showing Standards, etc - geo-based • Analyse plans - fault studies Evaluation • Project initiation
existing networks • Customer data - trend-based - refurbishment • Reliability - cash flow - DPA’s / CRA’s
• Prepare network • Electrification data • Demand & - electrification analysis - income • Environmental
SLD’s • Performance KPIs energy forecast - environmental • Life cycle costing - tariffs assessments
• Review/redefine • Transmission • Scenario creation • Analyse reliability • Economic - SEA’s (EIA’s)
Study Area plans requirements evaluation • Long lead-time
boundaries • Refurbishment • Define problem • Integrated plans equipment
plans statement - transmission • Servitude
• Environmental - sub-transmission acquisition
issues - reticulation
Integration of Electrification, Refurbishment, Transmission and Environmental Plans [5.6]
Figure 5-1: Eskom’s Planning Process
5.2. Planning Study Objective and Review of Study Area

5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
This first step is of a universal nature and sets the stage for the particular study, be it a NMP or a NDP.
The network planner should allow for a clear definition of the primary and secondary objectives of the
study, the confirmation of the study area, the recorded network needs and eventually the development
of a problem statement.
Even though network study areas may previously have been defined, these should always be
reviewed to adjust for network or organisational changes.
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5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.3. Gather and Verify Network and Load Information
5.6
During this task appropriate information to support the study should be obtained. Planners require a
wide variety of raw data and processed information to compile an effective plan. This includes mostly
network and load related data but should also investigate the availability of information related to the
environment, as well as plans for other services such as transport and water.
Other sections such as Plant, ED, CS & Land Development have an important role to play in providing
data and in compiling related plans, e.g. Refurbishment Plan, Electrification Plan. During this task
specific assessments are conducted by the responsible parties to provide comprehensive information
to the planners for integration into either the NMP or NDP.
This task further entails a quality review and indexing of all obtained information. Field visits may be
required to verify network layout and equipment data. Where load recordings are not available it may
be necessary to launch an exercise to install special recorders to obtain the required loads.
5.4. Load Forecast and Strategic Study 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
The load forecast is a crucial input to both NMP’s and NDP’s. During this task a load forecast is
developed that is based on regional demographic and historical load growth patterns, together with
inputs such as Regional Electrification Plans, Local Economic Development (LED) Plans, Spatial
Development Frameworks (SDF’s) and other infrastructure development plans, often contained in
Municipal Integrated Development Plans (IDP’s).
It is important that the network planners have good insight into socio-economic developments by both
public and private sector. Regional Planners & Economists should be utilised to conduct a strategic
socio-economic study, which serves as an important input into the load forecast.
Distribution Customers Services and KSACS should be consulted to determine any specific customer
requirements and also to obtain the energy and revenue forecasts.
The load forecast for the NMP should provide a long-term strategic view on development and should
preferably be based on geo-spatial techniques, where the NDP load forecast will be based on actual
registered needs, as well as short-term trending type load growth predictions.
The NDP load forecast should be used as input to the long-term load forecast. A full long-term geo-
based load forecast can in turn be used to support the load forecast required for the NDP study,
particularly in areas where significant Electrification growth is still anticipated.
5.6. Analyse Existing Network Capability and Problem Statement
5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
This task should analyse all the data and information gathered during the previous steps or by others
outside the planning process such as network operators.
A typical activity would be to develop adequate network models representing the sub-transmission
and/or reticulation networks within the study area. Once these models have been confirmed to be an
acceptable representation of the real world, future loads as projected by the load forecasting exercise
can be applied to the network models and analysis studies can confirm shortcomings of the existing
network.
The planner should then analyse and address the shortcomings in a coordinated manner and finally
clearly define the network problems that have been identified.
This Guideline’s review of
5.8. Integration date as expired and will be incorporated into
Plans 5.2the
5.3Strategic
5.4 5.5 Planning
5.7 5.8 PCM.
5.9

responsibility 5.6 Development
rests with the user Plans
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The planner, in consultation with the relevant stakeholders, needs to integrate1 the various discipline
specific plans into the overall network plan, either at a strategic level for a NMP or at a more detailed
project level for a NDP.
These include the following plans:
Electrification Plan
Refurbishment Plans (Primary and Control Plant)
Transmission Plans
Environmental Plan
Reliability Plan
The Electrification section within Customer Services is responsible for compiling the detailed 5 year
Electrification Plan. This is typically more relevant for a NDP study, but any long-term plans should be
incorporated into a NMP study. The Plant Section is responsible for Primary Plant Refurbishment
Planning, and Electricity Delivery (ED) is responsible for Control Plant Refurbishment Planning.
Integration of plans at all levels, including Transmission, Sub-transmission and Reticulation requires
effective communication between stakeholders. Special emphasis is required for liaison with
Transmission Expansion Planning, which is organisationally separated from Distribution Network
Planning.
It is important to develop a common vision between Network Planning, Electrification, Plant and ED for
the long-term development and renewal of the network over time.
5.8. Identify and Evaluate Alternatives
5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
The objective of this task is to identify possible network solutions and to perform technical evaluations
on these alternatives to ensure that the identified needs are addressed. Care should be taken to
ensure that the level of technical capability of each network development alternative is more or less
equal so that economic evaluation can be done fairly on each alternative.
Network analysis will adhere to the planning criteria as described in the Distribution Code and the
Network Planning Guideline DISASACP2
The economic evaluation should collectively assess all costing factors influencing the viability of the
plan and should consider both the cost of new infrastructure as well as the life cycle cost of operating
and maintaining the infrastructure.
1
Note that aspects such as electrification, refurbishment, transmission, reliability, operational flexibility, maintenance and
environmental plans date asinexpired
are integrated an iterativeand will
manner be incorporated
at various into the
stages of the planning Strategic Planning PCM.
process.
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5.9. Capital Plan and Financial Evaluation 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
The objective of this task is to refine and phase the capital cost of the preferred network development
option.
As a minimum, the cost estimates should be based on the requirements for the following project
business categories:
Direct Customer
Electrification
Strengthening
Refurbishment
Reliability
It is sensible to do a financial analysis of the recommended network plan in order to confirm that the
capital program will still meet cash flow and net income requirements of the strategic and business
plans.
5.10.Reporting, Approval and Project Initiation
5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
This task is of a general nature and touches on all the steps mentioned above. The task outlines the
requirements for:
Reporting, i.e. summary reports - the approach, findings and recommendations of the planning
studies
Approval of NMP’s & NDP’s - via DPA’s - in line with the CIP / NACVC process
Project initiation, i.e. the release of projects into the business - via CRA’s
It includes the identification of long lead-time equipment, environmental assessments and servitude
acquisition.
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6. Methodology
This section provides a more detailed description of the tasks, activities and deliverables supporting
the planning process outlined in Section 52. In the first instance the activities refer to the generic
planning process, i.e. tasks common to both NMP’s and NDP’s, and any specific requirements or
approach for either type of study are then noted separately.
Both NMP’s and NDP’s adopt a holistic approach and they address all aspects of Eskom Distribution
network infrastructure planning, including bulk supplies to support the national Electrification drive.
6.1. Planning Study Objective and Review of Study Area
5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
This first step is of a universal nature and sets the stage for the particular study, be it a NMP study or a
NDP study.
The planner should provide a clear definition of the main objective of the study, the confirmation of the
study area, the recorded network needs, the development of a problem statement, and the
deliverables that can be expected.
Depending on the trigger for the planning review, the planner will determine the appropriate approach
required to execute the NMP or NDP study. For example, a significant new industrial development
may require a full review of an entire NMP or NDP study area, including a revision of the load forecast,
while the need for performance improvement of a specific network may only require certain technical &
economic evaluation tasks to be executed, without the need for a detailed review of the load forecast.
The requirements of the planning study will dictate the relevant data the planner will need to gather to
undertake the study, identify the existing and potential future network problems, as well as address
any other general ‘needs’ within the study area.
6.1.1 Define / Review Study Area
Defining study areas within a region for either a NMP study and/or a
NDP study is an important step in the process. Even if these areas
have been previously defined, they should be reviewed from time to
time to ensure that they are still optimal with respect to the
development of the networks in that, and neighbouring, areas.
A NMP may span an entire Eskom Region, but at the lowest level will
cover at least one transmission substation supply area or FSA. In
practice, one will expect that a NMP will cover a number of
transmission substation supply areas due to the interconnected nature
of these networks.
Similarly, NDP study areas should be logical distribution network areas, spanning one or more TSA’s
or sub-transmission substation supply areas. It is preferable to incorporate both sub-transmission and
reticulation networks into a common NDP study, however it is recognised that the nature of the
networks may dictate otherwise in some parts of the country.
Study areas are likely to be governed by the following considerations:
networks which form part of a substation load area

2
[Note: Each section is indexed by means of a small graphic relating back to the relevant stage depicted in Figure 5-1. It
should be appreciated that network planning is not a simple one-through process and that some activities therefore span
more than one stage. Also, because this section provides additional detail, more than one section can relate back to the same
stage in Fig 5-1.]
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interconnectivity and back feeding opportunities

load types and densities which may vary in mix due to socio-economic changes, e.g. a mine may
close down and the towns may need to find other economic activity to sustain themselves
natural geographic features, e.g. a mountain range may dictate that long radial feeders will exist
there
NDP’s shall deliberately include MV (up to 33kV) and HV (up to 132kV)

alignment with organisational boundaries, e.g. FSA’s and TSA’s, as far as possible
While larger point loads will have a significant effect on the sub-transmission network capacity, most
distribution loads are taken at a LV or MV level. An NDP study will therefore need to evaluate the
reticulation feeders in light of the above information and establish the optimum solution(s) involving
both the reticulation feeders and the sub-transmission feeders. A NMP will typically only be concerned
with the transfer capacity of MV networks interconnecting transmission or sub-transmission
substations.
It should be noted that a NMP or NDP is not voltage specific. For example, in practice it is generally
not necessary to include LV for most NDP activities. However where bulk electrification is involved, the
effect of MV supply voltage level on cost per connection should be considered. (Refer to SCSASACN7
Distribution Voltage Regulation and Apportionment Limits for more detail.)
6.2. Gather and Verify Network and Load Information
5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
During this task appropriate information to support the study should be obtained. Planners generally
require a wide variety of raw data and processed information to compile an effective plan. This
includes mostly network and load related data but should also investigate the availability of information
related to the environment, as well as plans for other services such as transport and water.
Other sections such as Plant, ED, CS & Land Development have an important role to play in providing
data and in compiling related plans, e.g. Refurbishment Plan, Electrification Plan. During this task
specific assessments are conducted by the responsible parties to provide comprehensive information
to the planners for integration into either the NMP or NDP.
This task further entails a quality review and indexing of all

obtained information. Field visits may be required to verify
network layout and equipment data.
Where load recordings are not available it may be

necessary to launch an exercise to install special recorders
and obtain the required load statistics.
This is one of the most important activities of any planning

study - the quality of the outputs is certainly dependant on
the quantity and quality of the data available. As discussed
later in section 7.3, it is important that planners are proactive in planning activities well ahead of time,
to ensure that other stakeholders can adequately prepare for, and execute, their tasks.
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6.2.1 Task Objective
The objective of this task is to ensure that as much existing data and information as possible is
gathered. Furthermore, this task entails a review of all obtained information during previous projects to
provide a solid platform on which this study can be based.
6.2.2 Activities
The information to be collected will be the information necessary to support the scope of work as
defined. The following list of information can be regarded as a minimum:
Background: topographical area maps; electrical network geographical

routes; aerial photographs, land-use information, geographical positions
of substations, and cable and feeder routes
Electrical supply system information: electrical network information
(SLD, substation diagrams, layouts diagrams); network operating
diagrams; network analysis files; parameter data (nameplates, line /
cable sizes and line / cable routes); load data for sub-transmission
substations and feeders; network maintenance records
Metro / Municipality Network Information: obtain relevant network and

loading information from Metro / Municipalities to ensure adequate
system integration, also electrification plans
Existing standards and reports: existing studies and reports (including load forecast and NMP’s
and NDP’s and Transmission plans); existing capital plans and standard building block costs;
existing general planning related information; planning and operational criteria, network and
equipment performance-related reports and indicators (KPI’s), reliability criteria
Refurbishment Plans: obtain Primary Plant & Control Plant
Refurbishment plans
Demand forecast: daily and annual load profiles per

substation, transformer and supply feeder; any available
load forecast reports, as well as customer billing
information.
Electrification Plan: obtain latest Electrification plans and
priorities, electricity usage data, cost/connection
Capital Program: obtain the existing Capital Rolling Plan - to be reviewed and integrated into the
new plan. Standard item costs (e.g. transformers, lines & cables)
Line Routes and Substation Sites: obtain information regarding possible existing line routes (rights
of way & servitudes) and substation sites
Operational information of existing networks: current operational problems; contingency reports,
list of maintenance and/or safety problems
Environmental Assessments: obtain any existing environmental assessment reports, and any
other environmental data relevant to the study area
6.2.3 Deliverable
The primary output of this task will be an indexed listing, together with a quality review, of all gathered
data - a summary of relevant data-sets, including meta-data, i.e. information about the information, to
be used during the remaining phases of the planning study.
6.3. Strategic Study 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
This Guideline’s review date as expired and will be incorporated into the Strategic 5.6
Planning PCM.
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This task is essentially a sub-component of a geo-based load forecast (see section 6.4), but it is
significant enough to stand on its own. A Strategic Study3 is mainly applicable to NMP studies. It is
unlikely that a strategic study will be required for a NDP study.
6.3.1 Project Components
The following aspects are regarded as important issues in the study:
The purpose of the study will be to model the growth of the population and the economy of the
area for a 20 year period, typically in 5 year periods, at the lowest possible geographic resolution.
It is important that the data for population statistics and
economic activity are presented at an appropriate geographic
resolution. The zones should be delineated together with the
Eskom planner. Estimates can be made at the finer resolution
based on field visits, aerial photography and satellite photos, if
necessary.
Projections may however be done at a broader scale and
applied uniformly to the sub-areas within the study area. The
broader scale will relate to homogeneous areas adjacent to each
other
Development and growth in the area will be based on knowledge

of the area, historic trends, potential developments, planning
documents, IDP’s, interviews with relevant municipalities and
people knowledgeable on the area. Development Economists
should be used to develop an economic model, which can be
utilised and manipulated for easy abstraction of data.
Development Economists should be used to structure the economic model in such a way that
sensitivity analyses can be performed with ease, such as incorporating low and high projections of
HIV/AIDS impact on the population, relevant industrial developments, the utilisation of alternative
sources of energy by industry, etc.
The results of the economic modelling exercise will be presented in physical units, namely
hectares of developable land area per economic activity and population.
3
If a major update of a Regions load forecast is required, a strategic socio-economic study can be commissioned as a stand-
This Guideline’s
alone activity. review date as expired and will be incorporated into the Strategic Planning PCM.
with the user Plans
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6.3.2 Methodology
Based on the foregoing discussion of issues, the following methodology is proposed:
Step One: Evaluate Base Data
This first step will be used for orientation with respect to the project and the existing data and
documents. The zones to be utilised for the results will be delineated together with Eskom. This step
will be used to delineate the area into viable homogeneous areas for projection purposes.
Step Two: Development of Base Model
This step will be used to develop a model for the base data grouped into the delineated zones. The
model will be developed in order to account for the data at various geographic levels and expanded to
facilitate sensitivity analyses. All the assumptions and conditions of the base model will be stated.
Step Three: Baseline Forecasting
The baseline forecasting forms the basis of the dynamic

forecasting. The following indicators will be forecasted for a
20 year period:
Load Forecast
Number of households
Population density
Economic growth
It should be noted that GGP (Gross Geographic Product) should be used to forecast economic growth.
The baseline forecasting is based on historical trends and the impact of planned developments on
population and economic growth are not included in this forecasting.
Step Four: Identification of Developments
This step involves the identification of potential future major developments in the area. Development
Economists should be used to review the various IDP’s, SDF’s and LED plans that are available from
district and local municipalities. The purpose of the review will be to compile a list of development
projects identified in these municipal planning documents. In addition, the Development Economists
must use their extensive knowledge of economic development in the area to supplement the list of
planned developments identified through municipal planning documents. Each development should be
briefly described and classified.
Step Five: Modelling
The purpose of this step is to undertake the modelling exercise to generate the results per zone in
terms of expected economic activities, population and spatial requirements. The projections will be
presented for the stated 20 year planning horizon.
Step Six: Sensitivity Analyses
The purpose of this step is to undertake sensitivity analyses to determine the potential impact of the
following aspects on the future economy and population and the associated land uses.
HIV/AIDS pandemic and associated effects on population and economic growth

Alternative
This Guideline’s sources
review of energy
date per economic
as expired and willsector
be incorporated into the Strategic Planning PCM.
with the user Plans
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Global and South African economic growth scenarios

Spatial initiatives such as Corridor developments
Step Seven: Recommendations and Reporting
The results of the economic and demographic modelling exercise should be presented in electronic
format in physical units, namely hectares of developable land area per economic activity and
population, per geographical zone.
5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
6.4. Electrification Planning 5.6
The National Government through the Department of Minerals and Energy (DME) provides funding for
Electrification and currently contracts with Eskom in terms of the project list, the number of
connections per project and the costs relating to the project.
To support the National Electrification Programme, Eskom has identified the need to develop a
Universal Access Plan (UAP) as follows:
Universal Access Plan
Analyse base-line data regarding electrification status and backlogs

Compile demographic and econometric perspective
Prepare Universal Access Connection Schedule (NMP)
Review and update existing Rolling Electrification Plan (NDP)
Submit demand and energy inputs to Generation and Transmission
The development of an Electrification Plan, based on accurate input data (household count and village
positions) and a chosen future development scenario, is one of the main objectives of the UAP.
The process of compiling the technical components of an Electrification Plan within the context of the
NMP/NDP planning process is indicated in Figure 5.1.
The Electrification Planning section within Customer Services department is responsible for compiling
the detailed demand-side Electrification Plan, while Network Planning is responsible for compiling the
supply-side plan.
The primary purpose of the Electrification planning process

will be to:
Review electrification status quo and backlog

Determine of grid and off-grid supply areas
Prioritisation and phasing of electrification projects
Budgeting and allocation of funds
Liaison and negotiation with stakeholders to ensure

adherence to:
9 Government priorities
9 Integrated Development Plans

9 Technical date as expired and will be incorporated into the Strategic Planning PCM.
requirements
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The desired result from this process is a number of possible projects over a 20 year period which will
support the NMP and a 5 year period which will support the NDP.
6.4.2 Activities
Eskom needs to do sufficient up-front planning within the NMP and NDP process to ensure that
capacity is available to support all load categories, viz. industrial, commercial, agricultural and
residential (including electrification).
Through the use of satellite photography, the HELP data base, and algorithms that determine the load
from demographic and other data, an estimate can be made of the number of connections in an area,
as well as the likely infrastructure required to supply the overall expected load in the area.
The following activities should be performed to achieve the above-mentioned objective:
Electrification Connection Schedule

S-Curves Utilised in the GLF
Compile an Electrification schedule to achieve 1.2
Universal Access 1
0.8
The schedule should take cognisance of:
p.u.
0.6
9 Existing capacity constraints 0.4
0.2
9 Phased approach according to national /
regional priorities 0
Y0
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
Y6
Y7
Y8
Y9
Y10
Y11
Y12
Y13
Y14
Y15
Y16
Y17
Y18
Y19
Y20
Y21
Y22
Y23
Y24
Y25
S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S1s S2s
This should be achieved through:
Analysis of the baseline data, preferably on a GIS platform

Workshops with Network Planners to discuss and understand network capacity constraints
Preparation of Electrification schedules for different scenarios
Workshops to discuss proposals with Network Planners, Electrification Planning and INEP
Finalise Electrification schedule per scenario per region, including list of crucial network
constraints
Rural Electrification Planning
The electrification planning process for the rural areas of the Eskom Regions will differ from urban /
peri-urban areas, in that scenario’s need to be evaluated to determine the best grid / non-grid
technology implementation, while maintaining close liaison with Municipalities and providing support to
their IDP’s.
The national electrification planning model4 should be used to assess scenarios as necessary.
It should be noted that the model is deficient in the following respects and these aspects should be
taken into consideration in the planning process:
Settlements already electrified and ‘infill’ connections must to be factored into the model
4
The national electrification planning model was developed in 2000 and further enhanced in 2003.
The model is a scenario planning tool which determines optimal and prioritized distribution network
expansion based on geospatial demographic, geographical and economic information. The model
works on the approach that areas not reached with grid electrification, as per the criteria selected by
the user, will be targeted with non-grid technologies.
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Life-cycle costs for both grid and non-grid technologies must to be factored into the decision-
making process
Limitation of feeder network length and maximum number of customers per feeder
Cost of reliability should be factored into the plans
User intervention is required to factor in network capacity constraints and other known network
development plans that will have influence
In addition to the above, the following model dependant data sets must be updated:
HELP and institutional database

Economic and financial data review
Cost tables
Rolling Electrification Plan
Update the Rolling Plan for various scenario’s

Verify short-term plan villages on-site (stands,
connections and locations to networks)
Prepare project proposals for all villages in the short-
term plan
6.4.3 Deliverable
The deliverables of this task will be an Electrification Plan

(preferrably in a GIS format) documenting, amongst other things, a number of possible projects over a
20 year period which support the NMP and a 5 year period which support the NDP.
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6.5. Load Forecast 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
The load forecast is a crucial input to both NMP and NDP studies, as well as to 5Transmission System
planning studies. During this task a load forecast is developed that is based on regional demographic,
socio-economic and/or historical load growth patterns, together with inputs such as Regional
Electrification Plans, Local Economic Development (LED) Plans, Spatial Development Frameworks
(SDF’s) and other infrastructure development plans, often contained in Municipal IDP’s.
The load forecast for the NMP should provide a long-term strategic view on development and should
preferably be based on geo-spatial techniques, whereas the NDP load forecast will be based on actual
registered needs, as well as short-term trending type load growth predictions.
Ideally each Eskom Region should have an established geo-based load forecast (GLF), which is
maintained on an ongoing basis. This GLF should be in a format that allows it to be linked to the
physical network load points for the purpose of assessing existing and future network capacity.
If a need arises to conduct a NDP study, and a GLF is not yet in place, it will not be practical to
compile a 20 year GLF in the time available. It will therefore be necessary to compile a short to
medium term (0 – 5 years) load forecast to support the NDP planning process. For this purpose, it will
be acceptable to use a time-based extrapolation of historical load data, i.e. trending method, enhanced
with any relevant development data that is available. This should be followed-up as soon as possible
with a scientifically based, longer-term approach to confirm the NDP for the area.
Geo-based Load Forecast (GLF)
A regional GLF should be developed which covers the NMP study area, based on the current land-
use, the land-use predictions over the long-term, and other economic and demographic projections. It
is important that network planners have good insight into the socio-economic developments in the
study area. Regional Planners & Development Economists should be utilised to consolidate the
existing structure plans and to conduct a strategic socio-economic study as described in Section 6.3.
The aim of this task is to determine the present and future

electricity requirements of electrical end-users in the study area.
The study should present a dynamic assessment in terms of
historic and the most probable future trends.
The focus throughout the study should lie on the electricity needs
and requirements of the various user sectors as determined by the
characteristics and trends of each. The study should therefore
highlight where and when imbalances between electricity
requirements and supply are most likely to occur. This information
will inform decisions regarding the timeous development and the
spatial location of electricity infrastructure.
This Guideline’s
5
review
The Transmission datesection
Grid Code, as expired and will
7.3 (5), requires be incorporated
Distribution intoload
to submit an annual theforecast
Strategic
(10 yearPlanning
period). PCM.
with the user Plans
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6.5.2 Activities
The following activities should be performed to achieve the above-mentioned objective:
Development potential analysis

Strategic guidelines
GLF development
Demand and Energy forecast
Development Potential Analysis
The purpose of this step is to undertake a demographic situational evaluation with a view to compile a
development perspective and identify trends and opportunities for projections and scenario planning.
This analysis will provide critical basic information required for development planning. This will be used
to provide guidelines towards future land-use patterns and predict future electricity demand for the
study area.
Strategic Guidelines
The purpose of this step is to develop scenarios for the identified

zones, taking cognisance of the following:
Strategic development projects

Infrastructure planning
The type and extent of activities and land-uses

Density of land-uses and activities
GLF Development
The complete study area should be zoned in order to obtain a

geographical base for a comprehensive load forecast. The load zones normally vary in size depending
on the activity and density of the area and actual information available for a specific area. All load
zones must be captured in GIS database.
Demand and Energy Forecast
Historical load data will be used to derive the short-term forecast. For the long-term forecast, the inputs
from the development perspective are used to determine a saturation load. An S-curve is then fitted
between the short-term forecast and the saturation load. Modelling the large customers separately as
point loads substantially increases the overall accuracy of the forecast.
Often more than one load forecast is required, and the selection of these forecasts must be done in
close co-operation with Distribution Customer Services and KSACS. Customer Services should
provide at least an energy forecast per sector per area. Planning can translate this into a maximum
demand forecast. The estimate of the load forecast, as accurately as it can possibly be, must then be
considered with a band around it and the band’s effect on the technical and financial solutions. To do
this the planner must separate the elements of the load forecast into categories based on levels of
take up and growth. Trending needs to differentiate between those loads which are trends or historical
(from e.g. statistical metering) and those that are known due to development nature e.g. nodal
development points as provided by Customer Services. Special attention will be given to potential new
load, e.g.
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Industrial
Mining
Commercial
Large Residential
As a minimum requirement the planner must:

Main Substation
a) Know what the existing load is on the network under 30.0
consideration 25.0
b) Consult with customer services and the demand analyst (if

available) 20.0
c) Obtain and apply available statistical metering data Optimistic
MV A
15.0 Realistic
d) Use accepted methods to extrapolate existing load trends at Pessimistic
network level or Regional level if this is not available 10.0
e) Record the method and assumptions used to arrive at the load 5.0
forecast and make this part of the Planning proposal.

0.0
f) Seek approval from other planning colleagues on the 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
methodology and assumptions used for the load forecast of any

major project.
6.5.3 Deliverable
The deliverables of this task will be a 20-year GLF for the study area. The deliverable will include:
Base, optimistic and pessimistic load growth scenarios

Plots depicting all load zones and growth patterns
6.6. Primary Plant Refurbishment 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
During this task field (on-site) inspections should be performed to assess equipment condition - unless
the information is readily available and of an acceptable quality.
The Plant Section is primarily responsible for Primary Plant Refurbishment Planning. Plant is often
assisted by Field Services staff w.r.t. equipment condition inspections.
The network planner should ultimately be able to confirm long term

refurbishment plans from the reports produced by the Plant Section.
Special liaison with the Plant Section will be required to ensure that these
assessments are conducted timeously and that refurbishment needs
and/or projects are identified.
For a NDP study, it is necessary that specific projects are identified and
integrated into the NDP. Where refurbishment projects have not been
identified, a special exercise may be necessary.
For the purpose of a NMP, a plant age and high-level condition

assessment should be conducted to provide an estimate of the life
remaining in substation and line facilities. While a statistical age
assessment is generally adequate for the purpose of compiling a NMP,
the identification of specific projects will enhance the quality of the study.
In conjunction with the life extension methodologies, a plan to extend that life to meet future needs
should be provided. It is important to develop a common vision for the long term development and
renewal of a certain part of the network between Network Planning and Plant.
This Guideline’s
6.6.1 Task review
Objectivedate as expired and will be incorporated into the Strategic Planning PCM.
with the user Plans
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The main objective of this task is for the Plant section to collect / verify data and to inspect the age and
condition of plant in order to assess refurbishment needs and compile a Primary Plant Refurbishment
Plan for the study area.
6.6.2 Activities
The following activities will form part of the Refurbishment Analysis task:
Review substation and related system single-line diagrams (SLD’s), indicating the relative position
of the main electrical components such as breakers, isolators, instrument transformers and power
transformers, feeders, etc.
Review power equipment condition and performance
9 Verify equipment nameplate information
9 Conduct condition evaluation of primary plant
9 Verify loading on equipment, if necessary
Compile budget cost estimates for the proposed
refurbishment
Identify refurbishment requirements

9 Develop a first order refurbishment plan,
9 Assess capital requirements for refurbishment projects
6.6.3 Deliverables
The deliverable of this task will be a Primary Plant Refurbishment Plan containing the status of primary
equipment, recommendations on the proposed refurbishment and associated budget cost estimates.
6.7. Control Plant Refurbishment 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
The Electricity Delivery (ED) department is primarily responsible for compiling Control Plant
Refurbishment Plans. Ideally all control plant refurbishment requirements will be coordinated with the
Plant sections primary plant refurbishment requirements into an integrated Refurbishment Plan.
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For the purposes of NMP, control plant (protection, telecontrol, metering, DC supplies and
telecommunications) is often excluded from the refurbishment audit exercise. However it is becoming
more important since most electronic equipment (especially modern relays) has a much shorter
serviceable lifespan than primary plant (breakers, transformers, etc.), and it can add substantial value
to include control plant in the equipment audit and refurbishment process.
Electrical network performance is severely compromised by non-functioning or faulty control plant, as

equipment trips unnecessary or faults are not cleared in the shortest time, resulting in severe or
permanent damage to installations.
In order to perform a Protection Coordination Study, it is necessary to capture detailed information on

control plant (current transformers, relay settings and functionality, etc.) from the field, mostly within
substations. By including a visual assessment of the condition of the control plant within the data
capturing exercise, a Control Plant refurbishment assessment can be compiled at marginal additional
cost to the utility.
The objective of this task is to obtain accurate information on the condition and operational status of
control plant and to integrate the Control Plant Refurbishment Plan into the NMP or NDP study.
6.7.2 Activities
The activities under this task will include:
Evaluate the status and condition of all control plant in

the study area
Recommend refurbishment of control plant in order to

improve network performance
Compile a budget cost estimate
6.7.3 Deliverables
The deliverable of this task will be a Control Plant

Refurbishment Plan containing the status of control plant, recommendations on the proposed
refurbishment and associated budget cost estimates.
6.8. Analyse Existing Network Capability and Problem Statement
5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
The planner will by now have assessed the quality of all the available data and information gathered in
the previous steps. During this task he/she should analyse and integrate all this data, information and
any general ‘needs’ identified.
A further activity will be to develop adequate network models6 representing the sub-transmission
and/or reticulation networks within the study area.
Once these models have been confirmed to be an acceptable representation7 of the real world, future
loads as projected by the load forecasting exercise can be applied to the network models, and analysis
studies can identify shortcomings of the existing network.
6
The current Network Model should be available from EDNO.
7
It is important that when a planner discovers missing or incorrect network or loading data in the course of conducting his
This Guideline’s
studies, that anyreview date as
data population expired
and/or and
correction mustwill be at
be done incorporated intoSmallWorld
the data source, e.g. the Strategic Planning
and/or Oracle. In otherPCM.
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6.8.1 Network Models
The objective of this task is to develop adequate network models representing the sub-transmission
and/or reticulation networks within the study area. These models will be used primarily to conduct load
flow, fault levels and contingency analysis.
For a NMP study, the focus will be on the strategic

development of the networks, i.e. ensuring that
load supply zones are correctly defined and that
transmission and sub-transmission substations
and lines are correctly sized and located. Only
reticulation voltage levels and interconnectors
between these substations will typically be
considered in a NMP study. The network model in
this case can often be a simplified version of the
existing network, with MV loads lumped onto
substation busbars. In many cases, it may initially
be sufficient to use ‘rules of thumb’ regarding
maximum load reach limits, rather than load flows,
to determine the adequacy of a proposed solution.
In the case of a NDP study, it will be necessary to model the networks more comprehensively and
accurately, especially where reticulation networks form a significant part of the regions networks.
Loads should be located as accurately as possible on the reticulation networks, particularly larger point
loads which can have a significant impact. Load flow and contingency simulation studies should be
conducted to assess the adequacy of the existing network.
6.8.2 System Healthy Analysis
This task is intended to review the steady-state thermal and voltage performance of various load
scenarios on the existing system. This task ensures that the networks will have adequate transfer
capacity under normal operating conditions. The sub-components include:
Perform load flow studies for the typical network configurations and topography
9 Voltage limits
9 Thermal loading
9 Contingency and reliability criteria
9 Fault levels
Identify steady-state thermal and voltage
violations
Document steady-state results
6.8.3 Problem Statement
At this point in the process, the planner should have analysed and addressed all the shortcomings in a
coordinated, holistic manner. He/she is now in a position to clearly define the nature of the network
problems that have been identified. In this way all the existing network problems will be properly
identified, along with any potential future problems, within the study area.
words, planners must not only correct data within network simulation case files, it must be corrected at the source as well.
This Guideline’s
This will ensurereview date
that business as expired
benefits andinwill
will be realised be incorporated into the Strategic Planning PCM.
future.
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The planner should make clear statements about the problems that need to be addressed, including
network capacity constraints, expansion requirements, primary and control plant refurbishment
requirements, performance / reliability improvement, electrification plans / priorities, environmental
issues.
The focus of the next sections will be to find appropriate solutions to these problems.
6.9. Integration of Plans
5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
The integration of discipline specific plans is of course an iterative process spanning a number of
stages in the planning process. The planner, in consultation with the relevant stakeholders, needs to
integrate8 the various discipline specific plans into the overall network plan, either at a strategic level
for a NMP or at a more detailed project level for a NDP.
The following plans9 are typically included:
Electrification Plan
Refurbishment Plans (Primary Plant)
Transmission Plans
Environmental Plan
Reliability Plan
Refurbishment Plans (Control Plant)
Integration of plans at all levels, including Transmission, Sub-transmission and Reticulation requires
effective communication between stakeholders. Special emphasis is required for liaison with
Transmission Expansion Planning, which is organisationally separated from Distribution Network
Planning.
It is important to develop a common vision between Network Planning, Electrification, Plant and ED for
the long-term development and renewal of the network over time.
The objective of this task is to integrate short- to long-term plans within the NDP and NMP
respectively, i.e. to form a consolidated plan for a specific study area. This will:
provide a systematic review of infrastructure and related networks that may have reached or
exceeded their original design life
identify obsolete systems, structures and equipment
prioritise replacement, refurbishment, and follow-up tasks
integrate refurbishment planning with long-term expansion planning tasks
6.9.2 Activities
8
environmental plans are integrated in an iterative manner at various stages of the planning process.
9
environmental plans are integrated in an iterative manner at various stages of the planning process. It is not the purpose of
this document to date asactivities
detail procedural expired and
related will
to the be incorporated
execution of this process. into the Strategic Planning
PCM.
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During this task the planner will, in consultation with the relevant stakeholders, integrate the following
plans:
Electrification
The Electrification Planning section (Customer Services) is responsible for compiling the detailed
Electrification Plan. This is typically more relevant for a NDP study, but any long-term plans should be
incorporated into a NMP study.
Project areas (groups of villages/settlements)

Prioritised electrification project listing
Refurbishment
The Plant section is responsible for Primary Plant Refurbishment Planning, and the ED section is
responsible for Control Plant Refurbishment Planning.
A strategic life extension or refurbishment program will permit

continued economical operation of the electrical system
beyond its design life and improve reliability by reducing
unexpected failures. This program should address both:
Individual substation facilities approaching design life
Individual equipment on a system wide basis
Transmission
It is important for Distribution Network Planners to liaise with, and intergrate Regional plans with,
Transmission Expansion Planning, to ensure that optimum long-term development of the networks
takes place. This is particularly true for NMP, where substation supply zones should be defined, and
the location of new transmission infeed points determined. For NDP’s it will be sufficient to ensure that
the timing of project plans are synchronised with any transmission expansion plans.
Environment
Land Development is responsible for identifying any legal requirements and compiling general
environmental plans, addressing:
statutory requirements
environmentally-sensitive areas
wildlife preservation
6.9.3 Deliverable
The deliverable for this task consists of a list of projects and associated capital requirements
integrated within the NMP and/or NDP.
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6.10. Identify and Evaluate Alternatives

5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
The objective of this task is to identify possible network solutions and to perform technical and
economic evaluations on these alternatives to ensure that the identified needs are addressed. Care
should be taken to ensure that the level of technical capability of each network development scenario
is more or less equal so that economic evaluation can be done fairly on each alternative.
Network analysis must adhere to the planning criteria as described in the

Distribution Code and the Network Planning Guideline DISASACP2.
The economic evaluation should collectively assess all costing factors

influencing the viability of the plan and should consider both the cost of
new infrastructure as well as the life cycle cost of operating and
maintaining the infrastructure.
With reference to the planning process illustrated in Section 5, once the

load forecast has been completed and network solutions have been
identified that could supply this load, such alternatives need to be
analysed and technically evaluated properly to ensure that each
alternative network complies with required standards and criteria. Once
this has been achieved the alternatives can be costed and compared both
financially.
The objective of this task is to review the adequacy of the sub-transmission and reticulation networks
through load flow and contingency analysis, as well as through economic evaluation.
6.10.2 Activities
Load flow and contingency simulation studies will be conducted to assess the adequacy of the
proposed networks. Viable alternatives must be identified and evaluated in more detail, followed by the
development of conceptual plans that will allow immediate and long-term system development.
Specific activities are as follows:
Steady-State System Analysis
This task is intended to review the steady-state thermal and voltage performance of various load
scenarios. This task thus ensures that the networks will remain intact under normal operating
conditions. The sub-components include:
Perform load flow studies for the future annual

representation of network configurations
Identify steady-state thermal and voltage violations
Document steady-state conditions & results
Identify possible equipment fault rating violations
Identify possible remedial actions
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Dynamic System Analysis
This task will amongst other things evaluate the effect of Distributed Generation embedded in
distribution networks. The specific load requirements for large furnaces, etc should be borne in mind
when conducting dynamic studies.
The Planner must ensure network stability by conducting the following studies when required:
These must be done if the fault level is less than 10 times the nominal maximum demand and any of
the following:
Flicker/dip studies for:

a) Arc furnace loads
b) Crusher loads
c) Saw mill loads
d) If any one motor load is > 25% of NMD. These include variable speed drives and converters
Dynamic/Switching studies are needed when:

a) Shunt capacitor MVAR exceeds 5% of fault level
b) The switching of any single piece of equipment/load in or out results in a steady state voltage
change of 5%. (Transformer taps locked) (Network switching, switching of line or load)
Harmonic studies are needed for:
c) Capacitor bank installations
d) Static VAR compensators
Contingency and Reliability Analysis
Eskom intends to introduce more contingency and reliability analysis into their planning studies10. In
the meantime, manual and automatic contingency analysis will be conducted, where an element will
be taken out of service and the case reviewed using suitable power system software. The sub-
components include:
Perform contingency analysis and identify contingency thermal and voltage violations
Document contingency conditions (thermal, voltage and load loss violations)
Identify possible remedial actions and evaluate,

Review strengthening options with regard to reliability performance through the utilisation of
the Network Planning Reliability Improvement Guideline document
Network Alternatives and Scenarios
Based on the immediate and anticipated load forecast, various network expansion alternatives will be
identified to supply the current, medium and long-term load. The identified alternatives should be
discussed with stakeholders during workshops to ensure that all critical needs and possible solutions
have been covered.
10
A guideline document, together with reliability planning tools, is being developed. For more detailed information, refer to
Normative Reference: “Distribution Network Reliability Improvement Guideline document“.
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Technical Analysis and Technology Selection
Technically suitable alternatives will be evaluated in more detail in order to select the optimum
technical solution. Network analysis will aim to test compliance with the following minimum
requirements:
Thermal loading
Voltage standards
Contingency and Reliability criteria
Fault levels
Large Motor Starting
Non Linear Loads
Cost Alternatives
Typical costs for network equipment should be reviewed through discussions with vendors and
suppliers. This is usually a Project Engineering or T&Q responsibility11, and it is expected that the
PowerOffice costing tool will be used to compile standard cost libraries.
A basic cost estimate should be compiled for each alternative that complies with the technical analysis.
Economic Evaluation
Finally, an economic evaluation12 of the alternatives meeting the minimum requirements, taking life-
cycle costs into account, should be performed to select the preferred alternative.
6.10.3 Deliverable
The outputs of the above activities are:
An annually phased list of strengthening and

network improvement proposals that will ensure
network adequacy in terms of load growth,
network performance and environmental
requirements. The proposals contained in the
NDP will ultimately be packaged as projects that
will feed into the design phase of infrastructure
development
Geographic maps and schematic diagrams

showing the intended infrastructure changes to
the existing network
Long-term fault levels for design purposes and customer protection grading
11
Responsibility varies amongst Regions.
12
Excerpts from the Distribution Network Code with regard to Investment Criteria are noted in Annexure B
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It is important that the interdependencies between projects needs is well understood. Project triggers
need to be properly documented and monitored to ensure that projects are implemented at the
appropriate time.
6.11. Capital Plan 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
The objective of this task is to refine the cost estimates in more detail and to phase the overall capital
requirements of the preferred network development alternative(s) over the planning period.
The objective of this task is to compile cost estimates of the preferred alternatives and to develop a 5
year and 20 year capital requirements plan.
6.11.2 Activities
The following tasks will be performed to achieve the above objective.
Cost Preferred Alternatives
A more detailed cost estimate should be compiled for the preferred

alternatives. The capital requirements should be phased over the
planning period to match the required implementation date of the
projects.
EIA Cost Assessment
In order to determine the time frame and cost for an EIA process, a review should be done of the
nature of the planned development. A site visit of the proposed infrastructure should be undertaken to
determine the sensitivity of the environment. This will enable an assessment of depth of the
environmental process required (i.e. exemption, scoping or full EIA) and the specialist studies that may
be necessary. An indicative time frame and cost estimate will be drawn up from experience of similar
processes.
6.11.3 Deliverable
The output of this activity is the phased capital requirements plan for the preferred alternative(s).
The costing will be spread over a number of financial years as appropriate and should be divided into
categories that align with the current Eskom business categories, i.e.:
Direct Customers Minimum Capital Investment Scenario
Millions
18
Strengthening (Expansion) requirements 16
14 Total Investment by 2010
Reliability (Performance improvements) requirements

= R 30,643,000
12
10
Electrification requirements 8
Refurbishment requirements 4
EIA time-frame and cost estimates for project proposals

0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2018 2020 2024
Year
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6.12. Financial Evaluation 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
It is sensible to do a financial analysis on the recommended NMP or NDP in order to confirm that the
capital program will still meet cash flow and net income requirements of the strategic and business
plans.
This analysis must address the financial viability of the plan, considering the cost of new infrastructure,
and the potential and effective demand for electricity. The financial evaluation result will prove the
viability or otherwise of the proposed plan.
This task will collectively assess all factors influencing the financial viability of the expansion plan. The
financial viability is ultimately assessed comparing the long-term costs and revenues incurred by
Eskom.
6.12.2 Activities
To conduct a proper long-term financial analysis all information relating to generated income,
expenses, a capital plan and the general economy needs to be modelled to an acceptable degree of
detail.
To complete the long-term financial analysis general

financial parameters such as tariffs, inflation, losses, cost of
supply, etc. are all combined to determine the viability of the
proposed expansion plan.
The main inputs to the economic analysis are:
20 year load forecast

20 year capital program
Other parameters
9 Tariffs 9 System load factor
9 Losses (technical / non-technical) 9 Diversity factor
9 Purchase Cost 9 Levels of non-payment
9 Operating expenses 9 Inflation / escalation
6.12.3 Deliverable
The deliverables for this task will be a 20 year capital program and financial indicators,
20 year cash flow

Financial evaluation (MIRR & NPV calculation)
The financial impact on Eskom regarding tariffs, possible penalties due to proposed network
changes, etc.
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5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
6.13. Strategic Environmental Assessments
5.6
In terms of existing environmental legislation (Environment Conservation Act 73 of 1989 and the
National Environmental Management Act 108 of 1998), it is required that the likely environmental
effects of infrastructure related activities are taken into consideration before decisions to proceed with
the development of such infrastructure are taken. The objective of such an assessment is to promote
sustainable development, and protect the environment.
The accountability for ensuring compliance with these requirements lies with the Land Development13
section. Typically environment data is required at the outset of a NMP or NDP study, and as the
alternatives develop, initial environmental assessments are required to determine the viability of the
proposals. Eventually the NMP will provide the basis for SEA‘s to be conducted, and EIA’s will be
required for the projects initiated from the NDP study.
The objective of this task is to integrate environmental requirements into the NMP or NDP and to
ensure that the required environmental assessments are conducted timeously.
6.13.2 Activities
The SEA process as described in the DEAT Guideline Document on Strategic Environmental
Assessment in South Africa (Feb 2000) can be used as a framework for the approach to the strategic
development of environmental inputs to the NMP or NDP study.
The following activities are typically required:
Situation Assessment & GAP Analysis (including

identification of sustainability objectives, criteria,
environmental opportunities and constraints)
Scoping Assessment (including identification of
relevant stakeholders and the strategic issues)
Compiling Sustainability Parameters (formulating

parameters / guidelines for the assessment and
development of the NMP or NDP)
Assessing the NMP or NDP (i.t.o. identifying
environmental substitutes / tradeoffs)
Developing site specific EIA’s (details can only be provided once specific detail has been
obtained regarding the nature, scope, magnitude of the relevant infrastructure)
6.13.3 Deliverable
The specific deliverable for the SEA will include providing an environmental framework for strategic
development, and a set of outputs to assist the planner to make informed decisions and ensure that
the development is within sustainable limits.
13
Note: Land Development has indicated that they are working on a process to formalise servitude, wayleave and right-of-
way needs as specified by the Capital Business Plan and the Strategic Capital Plan. In addition proposals are being made to
This Guideline’s review date
accelerate environmental related as expired and will be incorporated into the Strategic Planning PCM.
permissions
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7. General Requirements
7.1. Regional Responsibilities 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
NMP’s and NDP’s are a Regional engineering responsibility, residing with the Network Services
Manager. All distribution networks in a Region should be covered (wall-to-wall) by NMP’s and NDP’s.
While the Network Planning section has the primary responsibility to coordinate and compile the
NMP’s and NDP’s for the Region, other sections have the responsibility to participate in the process
and to provide valuable and necessary inputs, for example:
Plant (with the assistance of Field Services) - primary plant refurbishment and performance /
reliability indicators
Land Development - environmental requirements and servitude acquisition

Electricity Delivery - protection, telecommunications, operational issues and control plant
refurbishment, as well as SCADA / metering data for load forecasting
Finance - various economic / financial data and indicators
Project Engineering - costing data and practicality of implementing proposed projects
Customer Services - customer and marketing related data, inputs into load forecast
Geographic Data Capture - as-built network data and relevant geographical themes
7.1.1 Network Planning’s coordinating role regarding the Capital Budget
As mentioned above, Network Planning, Project Engineering, Plant, Electricity Delivery and Field
Services all have a role to play in ensuring the provision of a capable network. Each has its own area
of expertise and focus, and responsibility to deliver meaningful input to the NMP or NDP. The projects
approved through the NMP and NDP process will be those that complement each other and add
maximum value to the business.
With respect to NDP’s, the planner is responsible to ensure that the future network size and
configuration take into account all the needs based on the information available at the time.
The NDP provides a summary of the short-to-medium term network development and it should contain
a list of projects and estimated costs for a defined load area. This project list is used as input into the
Capital Business Plan and assists in the procurement of long lead-time materials.
The approval of capital expenditure follows the NACVC process described in the CIP procedure14
ESKSCSPVBBC2.
The Network Planning Manager must sign all DPA’s and CRA’s as indicated in Figure 7-1 to release
them as proposed CAPEX projects. This is an important checkpoint to confirm that a project is aligned
with the latest NDP or NMP.
14
Note: The CIP document is in the process of being reviewed / revised. It was therefore considered
prudent not to include any excerpts from the current CIP document into this document.
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DPA and/or CRA Confirm with

submitted to NPM responsible planner Aligned Sign off
Re-scope
project or
modify Not aligned
NMP / NDP
Figure 7-1: Alignment of DPA’s / CRA’s with NMP’s / NDP’s
7.2. Revision of NMP’s and NDP’s
Typically NMP’s should be reviewed and revised at least every 5 years and the target for NDP’s
should be every 2 years. However the requirements of the Network Code (see below) will dictate the
minimum requirement, while in practice the rate of load growth as well as network performance
indicators will dictate more rigorous requirements, i.e. revisions may be triggered sooner by factors
such as quality of supply, safety or large customer applications. Under normal circumstances, it should
not be necessary to review or modify an NDP more than once in a 12 month cycle.
Section 7.1(3) of the Distribution Network Code (Normative Ref. No. 1) states that:
“The Distributor shall be responsible for compiling NDP’s with a minimum window period of five years.
These NDP’s shall be reviewed at the least every three years. The aim of NDP’s is to ensure a
capable network and should therefore include all relevant activities such as electrification and
refurbishment. Such plans should be drawn up taking into account only available information.
Unexpected loads or customer requests can be retrospectively added to the plan.”
The NMP’s and NDP’s for a Region must be stored and maintained on an ongoing basis within
Network Planning’s systems and databases.
It is important to realise that the NMP & NDP reports issued from time to time are not intended to be
live documents; they merely reflect a snap-shot of the network plans, based on the information
available, at that point in time.
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7.3. Preparing For NMP / NDP Production

5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
7.3.1 Defining / Reviewing Study Areas 5.6
As stated previously, defining study areas within a Region, for both NMP’s and NDP’s, is the important
first step in the process. Even if study areas have been previously defined, they should be reviewed
from time to time to ensure that they are still optimal with respect to the development of the networks
in that, and neighbouring, areas.
7.3.2 Planning Responsibilities
Each and every NMP and NDP area should be assigned to a planner, who shall be responsible for
ensuring that all activities are completed according to the planned review schedule for that area. More
than one planner can “team-up” and work together within an area, but only one planner must have the
overall responsibility for a study area.
7.3.3 Input Information
The overall value of a NMP or NDP is dependent on the information on which it is based. The input
information comes from many diverse sources internal and external to the Eskom Distribution Regional
structures.
It is important that the information sources are in-synch with the NMP or NDP, e.g. the Plant
department needs to have analysed its networks and identified its needs in a study area prior to the
NMP or NDP being compiled, so that the information is timeously available for the planner. This can be
achieved through appropriate scheduling of NMP’s and NDP’s as described below.
As discussed elsewhere in this document, the main inputs for a NMP and NDP study are:
Plant refurbishment plans

Performance & QOS (Reliability) reports
Electrification plans
Sales - customer categories, billing data and load forecasts
Spatial development initiatives
Network operations needs
Control plant refurbishment plans
Environmental needs
As-built network information
7.3.4 NMP & NDP Production Schedules
NMP and NDP activities should be scheduled well in advance. This is good management practice, and
it allows timeous communication to stakeholders. This will also allow stakeholders, who are required to
submit reports, or any other information, to proactively plan resources and budgets well in advance.
For a particular Region, the schedule (preferably prepared using MS_Project), should indicate:
the name of the NMP or NDP area,
the responsible planner, and

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start date, duration and finish date for the study.
Figure 7-2 below provides an example of how NMP’s or NDP’s can be scheduled at a Regional level.
Each NMP and NDP is allocated to a responsible planner and scheduled for review roughly over a five
or two year period respectively.
Note that NMP’s and NDP’s do not all have to be scheduled for review with the same frequency. Some
may need to be reviewed on a more frequent basis, while others can remain unchanged for longer
periods before a major review is required. Constant monitoring of network loading and performance
across all networks in the Region is recommended to optimise the review cycle.
Figure 7-2: Example of an NDP schedule for a Region
7.3.5 Task Check-list for NMP’s and NDP’s
The main planning activities required to undertake a NMP or NDP study are similar in nature, the
differences lying in the level detail, and sometimes the approach, required for each. Annexure A
provides a list of the activities typically required for each type of planning study.
At the highest level, this list can be used at the outset of the study to assist the planner to decide on
the activities and deliverables required to meet the study objective. Activities applicable to either
NMP’s or NDP’s or both are indicated in the check-boxes alongside each activity.
The activity list provides a logical sequence of tasks that will assist planners to follow a common
approach when conducting planning studies, i.e. these activities should guide the planner through a
structured thinking process.
Finally the activity list can serve as a useful check-list for the planner during the course of the study,
which can run over a number of months (bearing in mind that a planner may typically be required to
execute more than one study at time).
The main activities and the detailed tasks listed in the check-list can be transferred to a MS_Project
format to assist the planner to manage NMP and/or NDP outputs. The schedule can be used to track
progress by regularly updating the relevant task details.
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7.3.6 Reporting and Approval
The completed NMP or NDP study should be documented in a standard report template (format and
content indicated in the next section), and then signed-off and/or accepted as follows:
the responsible planner,

a peer, who should ideally be an experienced planning engineer, to verify the technical
soundness of the study,
the Network Planning Manager, who is accountable for the production & overall quality of
NMP’s and NDP’s,
the Planning Review Forum (PRF), or another Project Evaluation Meeting, if deemed
necessary by the NSM, and
the Network Services Manager, with whom the ultimate responsibility lies for approval.
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8. Reporting
From the previous sections it can be seen that the production of a NMP or NDP is a complex process
of obtaining information, analysing it, engineering it, and ultimately using it to make capital investment
decisions.
The process followed, and the decisions made, form the basis of the information to be presented to
Management for business decision-making. There is thus a need to formally package, present and
store the information for future reference and revision.
Once a planning study has reached the point where the preferred alternative has been selected, a
summary planning report (essentially an ‘expanded’ Executive Summary) should be compiled and
circulated for management information, review and acceptance. This report must be professional,
concise and easy to read.
Management, i.e. mainly the Engineering Manager, Network Services Manager, Capital Programme
Manager, Electricity Delivery Manger and Field Services Manager, need to be able to extract from a
NMP and/or NDP report that a sound process has been followed in producing it and that the work
suggested in it is appropriate for the area studied.
Part of the documentation process is ensuring that all associated and relevant data, study alternatives,
etc. is properly captured into Eskom’s systems, e.g. TIPSE, ProjectWise, etc.
8.1. Planning Reports 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
The NMP or NDP report will be structured in such a manner to meet the needs of Eskom Management
and to ensure that the level of experience and understanding of the technical issues are matched.
Detailed technical sections will be included as annexures and are normally used by the technical
experts, whereas the executive summary will inform management in ordinary terms as to the findings
and recommendations.
Together with its supporting information, the report also serves to ensure that plans can be followed
through by successor planners, and that future rework is minimised.
The objective of this task is to report on, and propose recommendations regarding the short, medium
and/or long-term sub-transmission and reticulation plans for the defined study area.
8.1.2 Activities
The report will include but not be limited to the following aspects:
Executive summary
Study objective
Data issues and assumptions used to conduct the study
Approach and methodologies used
Load forecast
Problem statement
Technical & economic evaluation of alternatives
Capital plan & financial evaluation
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Overall findings and recommendations
The report will typically be supported by geographical and schematic presentations of the existing and
future project requirements.
8.1.3 Deliverable
This task will document all relevant aspects of the study. The report will be supported by computerised
databases and information sets, e.g. a capital program, geographic maps and schematic network
diagrams showing all projects in a phased manner. The study can be presented to Eskom
Management during a formal presentation, if required.
8.1.4 Report templates
The standard Eskom documentation templates defining the required fonts and styles should be used
for NMP and NDP reports.
Documentation Management
All NMP and NDP documents should be indexed, documented and stored in ProjectWise in
accordance with Eskom’s practice for data archiving15.
8.2. Summary Report Format
The summary report is a report which is compiled and circulated mainly for Management information,
review and stakeholder acceptance (typically at a Planning Review Forum or Project Evaluation
Meeting).
The summary report needs to assure Management that a sound process has been followed in
producing the plan and that the proposals made are appropriate for the area studied.
The purpose of the summary report is therefore to provide:
a concise report (expanded executive summary) of the planning study. It can have links /
references to other reports and working files e.g. refurbishment reports, sales reports and
network analysis files
a short report that does not include a lot of detail on each and every aspect. It demonstrates
that the solutions reported on are appropriate and that the available technology solutions have
been studied.
Annexure C provides a descriptive outline of the required format and content for a summary report,
highlighting any differences between NMP’s and NDP’s. Practical examples of a summary NMP report,
and a summary NDP report are to be published separately as reference documents. [Refs 11 & 12]
15
Note: This document does not address the Documentation Management System required to
maintain up-to-date records for easy access and future updating of the NMP’s and NDP’s.
with the user Plans
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8.3. Initiating Projects 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.9
5.6
16
This task should address the CIP / NACVC process from NMP & NDP approval, i.e. via DPA’s,
through to Project Initiation, i.e. the release of projects into the business via CRA’s.
It includes the identification of long lead-time equipment, environmental assessments and servitude
acquisition.
16
The CIP document is in the process of being reviewed / revised. It was therefore considered prudent not to include any
excerpts regarding projectdate as from
initiation expired andCIP
the current will be incorporated
document into the Strategic Planning PCM.
into this document.
with the user Plans
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9. Bibliography
1) “Keeping the Lights On! Maintaining Reliability in a Deregulated Power Industry”, IEEE Spectrum,
June 1999, pp. 34-39, (co-author: J.D. Mountford).
2) “Least-Cost Transmission Planning Considering Power Industry Restructuring,” R. R. Austria, R.

Nadira, L. Cosenza, C. Fuentes, M. Avila, and J. Ramirez, IASTED Conference, Orlando, FL.,
October 1997.
3) “Considerations in the Development and Evaluation of Alternatives for Long-Term Transmission”,

P. Chonglertvarichkul, R.R. Austria, T.I. Leksan, G. Behrens, J. Slapp, CEPSI, Kuala Lumpur,
Malaysia, 1996.
4) “Modern Tools are Changing the Way Transmission Planning is Done,” R.R. Austria and F.S.
Prabhakara, PTI Power Technology, Issue no. 74, July 1993.
5) “Transmission Planning Under Uncertainties.” N.D. Reppen, presented at “Research Needs for
Coping with Uncertainty in Power Systems” workshop sponsored by National Science Foundation
and Edison Electric Institute, Oklahoma, July, 1991.
6) “Transmission Planning for Unbundled Generation Expansion,” R. R. Austria, M.R. Pangilinan and
J. Batista Silva presented at the 11th Conference of the Electric Power Supply Industry (11
CEPSI), October 21-15, 1996, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
7) “Planificacion de Sistemas de Transmision de Energia Electrica en el Futuro: Son Validas las

Premisas Tradicionales,” R. R. Austria, R. Nadira, L. Cosenza, F. Lecaros, C. Fuentes, M. Avila,
and J. Ramirez, presented at the Latin America Power ’97 Conference, April 29-May 1, 1997,
Caracas, Venezuela.
8) H. M. Merrill and A. J. Wood, Uncertainty and Risk in Strategic Planning, presented at National
Science Foundation workshop on “Research Needs in Power Systems Operations and Planning”,
Atlanta, Georgia, USA, September 1989.
9) E. O. Crousillat, P. Dorfner, P. Alvarado and H. M. Merrill, Conflicting Objectives and Risk in Power
System Planning, IEEE Transactions in Power Systems, Vol. 8, No. 3, August 1993
10) Spatial Electric Load Forecasting, H Lee Willis
11) Power Distribution Planning Reference Book, H Lee Willis
12) Electric System Long Range Planning Guide, US Dept of Agriculture, Bulletin 1724D-101A
13) System Planning Guide, US Dept of Agriculture, Bulletin 1724D-101B
with the user Plans
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Annexes
Annex A: NMP & NDP - Activities Checklist
Annex B: Investment Criteria - Excerpt from Distribution Network Code
Annex C: Planning Summary Report Framework

Note: Examples of the Summary Planning Reports for both NMP’s17 and NDP’s are to be published
separately (see Normative References No. 11 & 12).
17
Note: An appropriate recent NMP example applicable to the Eskom environment is not presently available, and it has
therefore been agreed that the NMP example be left until the completion of a study currently being conducted in the Central
Region. An edited version of this project report will then be inserted into the reference document.
with the user Plans
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Annex A
Planning Activities - Checklist
ACTIVITIES NMP NDP

1 DEFINE OR REVIEW STUDY AREA
1.1 • Produce geographical map showing location of study area(s)
1.2 • Produce maps showing existing electrical networks
1.3 • Produce network single line diagram(s)
2 GATHER NETWORK AND LOAD INFORMATION
2.1 Obtain Load (Demand), Customer and Electrification Information
2.1.1 • Obtain network loading data
2.1.1.1 • Statistical metering
2.1.1.2 • Load profiles
2.1.1.3 • Billing data
2.1.1.4 • SCADA data
2.1.2 • Identify numbers & type of customers in the area
2.1.3 • Identify bulk customers, electricity usage patterns in the area
2.1.4 • Request special measurements if necessary
2.1.5 • Obtain Electrification Plans and usage data
2.2 Obtain Refurbishment Information
2.2.1 • Obtain all proposed refurbishment plans and needs
2.2.2 • Obtain existing refurbishment reports
2.2.3 • Obtain condition and age of networks
2.3 Obtain Network Performance / Reliability Information
2.3.1 • Obtain network performance reports
2.3.2 • Obtain network performance KPI's n/a
2.4 Obtain Quality of Supply Information
2.4.1 • Obtain quality of supply reports
2.4.2 • Obtain quality of supply KPI’s n/a
2.5 Obtain Operational Requirements
2.5.1 • Obtain any network contingency plans
2.5.2 • Identify any operational problems, network reliability and flexibility
2.6 Obtain Existing Network Planning Reports
2.6.1 • Obtain transmission planning reports n/a
2.6.2 • Obtain sub-transmission planning reports
2.6.3 • Obtain reticulation network reports n/a
2.7 Obtain Environmental Requirements
2.7.1 • Obtain existing environmental reports/ issues
2.7.2 • Identify contravention of any environmental regulations n/a
3 COMPILE LOAD FORECAST
3.1 • Review existing load forecasts (incl. Electrification Plans)
3.2 • Analyse customer base and load profile data
3.3 • Request load forecast data from large customers
3.4 • Identify potential loads, spatial developments initiatives, etc
3.5 • Identify future load demand trends
3.6 • Prepare load duration curves
3.7 • Produce geographical load forecasts for the area
3.8 • Produce network load forecasts per substation and network
with the user Plans
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ACTIVITIES NMP NDP

ANALYSE EXISTING NETWORK AND DEFINE PROBLEM
4
STATEMENT
4.1 Analyse Existing Network Capability
• Perform load flow studies to identify voltage and thermal
4.1.1
problems (using existing network, and present & future loads)
• Perform fault studies to identify excessive fault levels or
4.1.2
equipment ratings being exceeded
• Analyse refurbishment plans and age and condition of network
4.1.3
equipment
• Analyse network performance KPI’s to identify poorly performing
4.1.4
networks
• Analyse QOS information to determine if limits are being
4.1.5
exceeded
• Analyse system reliability to determine if alternative infeeds,
4.1.6
duplicate transformers, improved protection are required
4.1.7 • Analyse networks to identify problems that require strengthening
4.2 Determine Immediate & Future Network Problems
4.2.1 • Identify network & equip. conditions exceeding planning criteria
4.2.2 • List all network problems/needs identified - stakeholders
4.3 Define Problem Statement (Needs & Problems)
• List all network problems/needs that need further investigation
4.3.1
5 IDENTIFY AND EVALUATE ALTERNATIVES

5.1 Assess Do Nothing Scenario
5.1.1 • Identify associated risks
5.2 Assess Demand Side Options
5.2.1 • Load shifting, alternative tariffs, distributed generation, etc.
5.3 Assess Supply Side Options
5.3.1 • Network re-configuration (moving NOP's, building link-lines, etc.) n/a
5.3.2 • Shunt capacitors (PF correction, voltage support) n/a
5.3.3 • FACTS devices and other new technologies n/a
5.3.4 • Network strengthening (new substations and power lines)
5.3.5 • Improve protection (breaker placement, motorised isolators etc.)
5.3.6 • Network maintenance / refurbishment / replacement
5.3.7 • New Transmission infeeds / strengthening n/a
5.4 Evaluate Viable Alternatives
5.4.1 • Select viable alternatives for detailed evaluation
• Record alternatives identified but not considered for further
5.4.2
evaluation
5.4.2.1 • Technical Evaluation
• Quality of supply
• Thermal loading levels
• Fault levels
• Operational flexibility and contingencies
• Maintenance requirements n/a
• Network losses
• Safety issues n/a
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ACTIVITIES NMP NDP

5.4.2.2 • Environmental Issues
• Practical issues w.r.t. line/cable servitudes and
substation sites, etc.
• Environmental impact of alternatives
• Economic Evaluation (comparing alternatives against
5.4.2.3
each other)
• Life-cycle cost estimates and NPC
• NPV & MIRR
• Sensitivity analysis w.r.t. financial parameters & load
forecasts
5.4.2.4 • Summarise each Alternative
• List advantages, disadvantages and costs of each
alternative
5.4.2.5 • Perform Cost Benefit Analysis
• Compare costs and technical benefits of alternatives
6 CAPITAL PLAN AND FINANCIAL EVALUATION
6.1 • Select preferred alternative(s) and compile capital plan
• Conduct a sensitivity analysis on preferred alternative (w.r.t.
6.2
• load forecast)
6.3 • Calculate MIRR and NPV
6.4
• Produce geographical map showing proposed future
electrical network
6.5
• Produce network single line diagram showing proposed
future network
6.6
• Prepare proposed time frame for implementation (including
phasing-in of solutions)
7 COMPILE REPORT AND OBTAIN APPROVAL
7.1 Final stakeholder meetings
7.1.1 • Present findings, discuss problems and proposed solutions
7.1.2 • Obtain input from stakeholders
7.1.3 • If necessary, modify recommendations in NMP or NDP
7.2 Compile draft report
7.2.1 • Compile draft report
7.2.2 • Senior engineer review
7.3 Internal Network Planning peer review
7.3.1 • Present findings, discuss problems and proposed solutions
7.3.2 • Obtain input from NPM and peers at meeting
7.3.1 • Modify recommendations if necessary
7.4 Compile final report
7.4.1 • Update report with changes
7.4.2 • Supervisor/manager to accept
7.5 Issue NMP / NDP report to key receivers
7.5.1 • Compile copies of NMP or NDP report for distribution
7.5.2 • Present to PRF for acceptance and NSM for approval
7.5.3 • Obtain feedback from stakeholders and modify if necessary
8 INITIATE PROJECTS
8.1 • Compile and obtain approval for DPA’s as necessary
8.2 • Initiate CRA’s, as and when necessary n/a
with the user Plans
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Annex B
Investment Criteria except from the Distribution Network Code
1. Network Investment Criteria

(1) Distribution tariffs should be sufficient to allow the necessary investments in the networks to be
carried out in a manner allowing these investments to ensure the viability of the networks.
1.1. Introduction
(1) The Distributor shall invest in the Distribution System when the required development meets the
technical and investment criteria specified in this section.
(2) The need to invest must first be decided on technical grounds. All investments must be a
technically acceptable solution i.e. shall provide :
(a) Minimum voltage quality requirements in terms of NRS 048-2.
(b) Minimum reliability and operational requirements as determined by this code and by the
NERSA.
(3) The investment choice must be justified by considering technical alternatives on a least- life
cycle cost approach. Least life cycle cost is the discounted least cost option over the lifetime of
the equipment, taking into account the technical alternatives for investment, operating expenses
and maintenance.
(4) Calculations to justify investment shall assume a typical project life expectancy of 25 years,
except where otherwise dictated by plant life or project life expectancy.
(5) The following key economic and financial parameters shall be determined by a NERSA
approved process:
(a) Discount rate
(b) Customer interruption cost (cost of unserved energy)
(c) Other parameters, such as tariffs and additional economic parameters.
1.2. General Investment Criteria
(1) Investments should be prudent (that is justified) as a least life-cycle cost solution after taking
into account, where applicable, alternatives that consider the following:
(a) The investment that will minimise the cost of the energy supplied and the customer
interruption cost (cost of unserved energy).
(b) Current and projected demand on the network.
(c) Reduction of life-cycle costs e.g. reduction of technical losses, operating and maintenance
costs and telecommunication projects
(d) Current condition of assets and refurbishment and maintenance requirements.
(e) Demand and supply options.
(f) Any associated risks.
(2) General (shared) network investments shall be evaluated on the least-life-cycle economic cost.
Economic cost will consider the least life cycle total cost of the electricity related investment to
both the Distributor and the customer.
(3) Investments made by the Distributor dedicated to a particular customer shall be evaluated on a
least life-cycle Distributor cost. Distributor cost will consider only the least-life cycle investment
cost to the Distributor.
(4) The Distributor shall evaluate investments in terms of the following categories:
(a) Shared network investments
(b) Dedicated customer connections.
(c) Statutory investments.
(d) International connections
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1.3. Least economic cost criteria for shared network investments
(1) Shared network investments are:

(a) Investments on shared infrastructure (not-dedicated) assets.
(b) Investments required to provide adequate upstream network capacity.
(c) Investments required to maintain or enhance supply reliability and/or quality to attain the
limits or targets, determined in section 6 (quality of supply) of this code, on existing
network assets.
(d) Refurbishment of existing standard dedicated connection assets.
(2) All shared network investments are to be justified on least economic cost. In determining the
least economic cost for shared network investments the investment must be justified in terms of
the cost to the electricity industry and not just to the Distributor.
1.4. Least life cycle cost criteria for standard dedicated customer connections
(1) Dedicated customer connections are:

(a) New connection assets created for the sole use of a customer to meet the customer’s
technical specifications.
(b) Dedicated assets are assets that are unlikely to be shared in the distributor’s planning
horizon by any other end-use customer.
(2) All dedicated connection investments are to be justified on the technically acceptable least life-
cycle costs.
(3) Where the investment meets the least life-cycle cost, the customer shall be required to pay a
standard connection charge as described in the Tariff Code.
(4) For certain customer groupings, as approved by the NERSA, the investments shall be justified
collectively as per customer grouping and not per customer.
1.5. Investment criteria for premium customer connections
(1) Where a customer has technical specifications that cause investment above the least Distributor
life-cycle costs, this will be considered a premium connection.
(2) The Distributor shall investigate these additional requirements and will provide a least life cycle-
cost solution.
(3) If the customer agrees to the solution, all costs to meet the customer requirement in excess of
what is considered the least life-cycle cost investment is payable as a premium connection
charge by the customer as described in the Tariff Code. Such costs shall be appropriately pro-
rated, if a portion of the investment can be justified based on improved reliability or reduction of
costs.
1.6 Statutory or strategic investments
(1) Distributors will be obligated to make statutory investments in terms of clause 7.2.6(3) below.
(2) Statutory and strategic investments will be motivated on a least economic cost basis, as defined
in 7.2.3.
(3) Strategic and statutory projects include the following:
(a) Investments formally requested in terms of published government policy but not
considered dedicated customer as under section 7.2.4.
(b) Projects necessary to meet environmental legislation, e.g. the construction of oil
containment dams
(c) Expenditure to satisfy the requirements on the Distributor to comply with the Occupational
Health and Safety Act of 1993; this classification is intended to ensure the safety of
operating and maintenance personnel who are exposed to possible danger when busy
with activities related to electricity transmission.
(d) Possible compulsory contractual commitments.
(e) Servitude acquisition.
with the user Plans
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Annex C
DESCRIPTION OF THE FORMAT OF A NMP / NDP SUMMARY REPORT
NMP / NDP Summary Report
NETWORK MASTER / DEVELOPMENT PLAN
for the XXXX STUDY AREA NAME
NETWORK PLANNING
XXXXX REGION
NMP/NDP No.: xxxx

Revision No.: xx
Date: Month Year
Compiled by: Recommended by: Accepted by: Approved by:

Signature: Signature: Signature: Signature:
Date: Date: Date: Date:

Type in Name + Type in Name + Type in Name + Type in Name +
Surname Surname Surname Surname
Responsible Network
Snr Eng Network Panning Network Planning Manager Network Services Manager
Planner
with the user Plans
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1. INTRODUCTION
The Introduction should be a concise opening statement about the planning study objective(s) and:
what triggered the NMP/NDP review (i.e. the reason for the revision)
any unusual approach adopted
other relevant remarks regarding changes taking place in the study area.
Reference can be made to the main NMP/NDP document or other electronic files (e.g. spreadsheets,
databases) for additional detail or supporting information.
1.1 DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA
In this section, the planner should present a brief overview of the geographical area & extent of the
existing electrical networks under consideration.
Indicate rough dimensions of the study area, using well-known landmarks (e.g. towns, main roads, a
resort or game park) or natural features (e.g. rivers, mountains) to indicate the boundaries of the area.
Summarize the voltage levels, substations & main feeders found within the study area.
One or more network maps and single line diagrams should be included (inserted as a figures into the
body of the report) showing sufficient detail for the reader to locate the area and understand the
extents of the network. Planning zones or sub-systems (especially at reticulation level) should be
clearly illustrated (the use of colour is very effective), as well as normally open points (NOP’s), and
significant items of plant (e.g. voltage regulators and capacitor banks).
Relevant “hot spots” can also be highlighted on the maps and/or SLD’s for the readers benefit.
1.2 INFORMATION ASSESSMENT
Any relevant remarks regarding the availability of relevant datasets can be made here. In particular the
quality of the data available, in terms of completeness and accuracy, should be noted. Data
deficiencies should be highlighted for future improvement.
1.3 CUSTOMER ANALYSIS & NETWORK LOADING
An analysis of the existing number of, and type of, customers in the study area should be presented
(either in tabular format or as a graph). If relevant, a breakdown of the demand usage per customer
type can be illustrated.
In particular, electrification priorities and large customers (municipalities, traction loads, mines or other
industries) should be singled out for the readers’ awareness. Any peculiarities about their load profiles
(electricity usage patterns), quality of supply requirements (load sensitivity) or load forecasts should be
noted.
Concentrated load centres can be indicated (on a map or SLD) if necessary.
with the user Plans
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In particular for NDP’s, a summary of the current load demands (and any unusual load characteristics)
on the main substations and/or feeders in the study area should be illustrated (preferably in tabular
format).
1.4 LOAD FORECAST
A thorough evaluation of the demographics in the area, and the socio-economic potential of the area
will provide input into the load forecast (preferably a 20 year focus for both NMP & NDP, but 10 years
is adequate for a NDP) for the study area. The planner should describe what activities currently take
place, and what development is expected to materialise in the future. The reader should get a “feel” for
the degree of growth and/or the rate of change expected in the study area. In particular, the forecasts
for large point loads should be highlighted.
As the load forecast forms the basis of the network analysis, and ultimately the capital investment in
the network, it is important that the manager reading the NMP/NDP be given as much relevant
information about load demand and growth potential in the area.
The planner must state assumptions clearly, together with the likelihood of scenarios materialising.
State significant information sources, and give the reader the confidence that as much planning &
development information as possible has been solicited, and used in preparing the load forecast(s).
Load forecast information should ideally be illustrated by means of graphs.
1.5 POWER SYSTEM ANALYSIS & AVAILABLE CAPACITY
The purpose of this section is to illustrate the capability of the existing network to carry present and
future loads.
The planner should present summarised results (tables or graphs) of his power system analysis (PSA)
studies with respect to the accepted planning limits for voltage drop, current carrying capability and
fault levels.
This should be done in a way that is easy for the reader to understand. (Note: not all readers will have
a technical background). A useful way is to indicate (in a table) the existing utilisation of plant (e.g. %
loading of power transformers or “available capacity” of feeders) and where any part of a network (i.e.
a feeder or a specific item of equipment) is expected to reach its maximum capability. The table should
indicate what the limiting condition is, the load at which it occurs, as well as the year (according to the
load forecast) that this is expected to happen.
Note: The planner should avoid the temptation to mention solutions at this point.
1.6 NETWORK & EQUIPMENT INVESTIGATION
The purpose of this section is to provide the reader with an understanding of all the related aspects of
the networks, and the environment, in the study area. It should also assure the manager that these
items have been taken into consideration in assessing the network, and in formulating the problem
statement (i.e. that a holistic approach has been used).
These aspects include, inter alia, the following:
network performance and quality of supply

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plant age & condition (i.e. refurbishment requirements)

operational and control considerations
protection, metering and telecommunications requirements
environmental considerations
demand side management
non-grid requirements
projects already in progress
It can be expected that there will be large amounts of data related to the above aspects, and it will be
impractical to include much detail (even in summarized format) in this summary report. Only relevant
data should be included.
Where information is not forthcoming from other sections, or it is of poor quality, and it is of sufficient
importance to affect the plan, it should be noted here.
1.7 PROBLEM / NEEDS STATEMENT
Make clear statements of the main problems that this NMP/NDP needs to address.
The planner will by now have analysed all the available data and identified all the existing network
problems, potential future problems, as well as any other general “needs” within the study area.
The focus of the next section is to find solutions to the problems/needs listed here.
1.8 SUMMARY OF ALTERNATIVES EVALUATED
In this section, the planner needs to provide summary information of all alternatives considered,
(whether evaluated in detail or otherwise rejected), to address the specific problem/need. The “do
nothing” option should be mandatory for each problem/need.
Each problem/need should be evaluated separately (referring back to the Problem Statement),
obviously taking cognisance of the fact that one solution may resolve more than one problem/need,
and that there will be interdependency between some solutions and the problems that they address.
The reader should obviously be made aware of any interdependencies, or otherwise unusual solutions
(e.g. equipment relocations between regions, or special configurations of equipment).
The planner should avoid bogging down the reader with too much technical detail, and the challenge is
to summarise his/her evaluations as concisely as possible, while at the same time assure the manager
that all viable solutions have been adequately evaluated.
1.9 PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE AND CAPITAL PLAN
All proposed network alternatives (i.e. not only strengthening or expansion) must be summarised (in a
table), indicating which problems/needs it solves, the estimated cost (in current year Rand value), any
interdependencies, and the expected year that it will be required (preferably the actual trigger should
be listed). This could also include non-capital projects/tasks, e.g. moving a NOP.
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Where relevant, the effectiveness of the solution should be stated, i.e. by how much is the capacity
increased, to what extent are the performance indicators improved, what is the annual maintenance
saving?
1.10 FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
The results of the financial evaluation for the proposed projects must be summarised (using a table or
graph) in order to give the manager an indication of the profitability or loss of the investment.
Key assumptions used to determine the MIRR and NPV values should be available to the reader.
The robustness of the solution(s) should be indicated, by testing them against varying load (revenue)
and financial parameters (i.e. sensitivity analysis). The degree to which the parameter(s) would need
to change before another alternative solution would be chosen as the preferred solution must be
stated.
1.11 CONCLUDING REMARKS
A final statement of the effectiveness of the investigation (i.e. given the completeness and quality of
the data available) in the study area, as well as the confidence in the results (i.e. given the
uncertainties in the area, or the assumptions made), and any other relevant concluding remarks.
The planner should state any recommendations (other than the proposed network solutions) that may
be required to improve the quality of the NMP/NDP.
For example:
specific load or harmonic measurements on the network

acquire accurate plant data (e.g. conductor type) for improved PSA modelling
plant condition assessment for refurbishment requirements
a specific environment impact assessment for a proposed project
the securing of a servitude for a planned power line
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Annex D
Impact assessment form
Eskom Methodology for Network Master plans and Network Development

plans
1. Guidelines
o All comments must be completed.
o Motivate why items are N/A (not applicable)
o Indicate actions to be taken, persons or organisations responsible for actions and deadline for
action.
o Change control committees to discus the impact assessment, and if necessary give feedback
to the compiler of any omissions or errors.
2. Critical points
2.1. Importance of this document. E.g. is implementation required due to

safety deficiencies, statutory requirements, technology changes, document
revisions.
Comment: The methodology is required to standardise the regional network planning approaches to
ensure that the proposed network projects provide an adequate future network
2.2. Identify and provide details of the critical (items required for the
successful implementation of this document) points to be considered in the
implementation of this document.
Comment: Network Planner will require training and a quality assurance process implemented to
check on application.
2.3. Provide details of any comments made by the Regions regarding the
implementation of this document.
Comment:
# User ID Name Date Region Comment
1 kriekcm Rina Kriek 31/01/2007 North West Document accepted as is
2 scholtjf Johan Scholtz 02/03/2007 Distribution Technology Comments from Sanjian
Malapermal DT IARC:
3 hapmapn Peter Chapman 15/01/2007 Central No further comment from Land
Development
3. Implementation timeframe
3.1. Time period for implementation of requirements.
Comment: The methodology is to be adopted for all NDP’s and NMP’s that are compiled / revised with
full implementation within 3 – 5 years i.e. one revision cycle
3.2. Deadline for changeover to new item and personnel to be informed of DX
wide change-over.
Comment: June 2007
4. Buyers Guide, Power Office and Stock
4.1. Does the Buyers Guide or Buyers List need updating?

Comment: N/A – planning and not directly projected related
4.2. Whatreview
This Guideline’s Buyer’s Guides
date or items
as expired and have
will bebeen created?into the Strategic Planning PCM.
incorporated
with the user Plans
Page: 75 of 77

4.3. List all assembly drawing changes that have been revised in conjunction
with this document.
4.4. If the implementation of this document requires assessment by CAP,
provide details under 0
4.5. Impact on stock holding and depletion of existing stock prior to switch
over.
4.6. When will new stock be available?
4.7. Which Power Office packages have been created, modifed or removed?
5. CAP / LAP Pre-Qualification Process related impacts
5.1. Are ALL suppliers (currently accepted per LAP), aware of the nature of
changes contained by this document?
5.2. Is implementation of the provisions of this document required during the
current supplier qualification period?
with the user Plans
Page: 76 of 77
5.3. If Yes to 0, which date has been set for all currently accepted suppliers to
comply fully?
Comment: N/A
5.4. If Yes to 0, has all currently accepted suppliers been sent a prior formal
notification informing them of Eskom’s expectations, including the
implementation date deadline?
Comment: N/A
5.5. Can the changes made, potentially impact upon the purchase price of the
material/equipment?
Comment: N/A
5.6. Is an ad-hoc re-evaluation of all currently accepted suppliers required as a
result of implementation of this document?
Comment: N/A
5.7. If NO, provide motivation for issuing this specification before Acceptance
Cycle Expiry date.
Comment: N/A
5.8. Material group(s) affected by specification: (Refer to Pre-Qualification
invitation schedule for list of material groups)
Comment:
5.9. Training or communication
5.10. State the level of training or communication required to implement this

document. (E.g. none, communiqués, awareness training, practical / on job,
module, etc.)
Comment: Communiqué via Network Services and Network Planning Staff
5.11. State designations of personnel that will require training.
Comment: Network Master Planner, Network Development Planner, Reticulation Network Analyst
5.12. Is the training material available? Identify person responsible for the
development of training material.
Comment: A PowerPoint presentation has been prepared and a worked example of an NMP and NDP
has been prepared and will be incorporated into the Network planning Training Schedule.
5.13. If applicable, provide details of training that will take place. (E.G.
sponsor, costs, trainer, schedule of training, course material availability,
training in erection / use of new equipment, maintenance training, etc)
Comment: Propose that initial Training will be conducted via Work Team Session. Longer term training
requirement will be addressed as a module in the Network Planning Training material that is due to be
developed via a Research project (one pager has been supported).
5.14. Was Training & Development Section consulted w.r.t training
requirements?
Comment: Not directly, but the T&D section is involved in the broader Network Planning Training
material development.
This Guideline’s
6. reviewtools,
Special date as expired andsoftware
equipment, will be incorporated into the Strategic Planning PCM.
with the user Plans
Page: 77 of 77
6.1. What special tools, equipment, software, etc will need to be purchased by
the Region to effectively implement?
Comment: Development of TIPSE will ensure sustainable implementation initially this will be done
using manual work around.
6.2. Are there stock numbers available for the new equipment?
Comment: N/A
6.3. What will be the costs of these special tools, equipment, software?
Comment: N/A
7. Finances
7.1. What total costs would the Regions be required to incur in implementing
this document? Identify all cost activities associated with implementation, e.g.
labour, training, tooling, stock, obsolescence
Comment: Covered by existing Network Planning Budgets for NDP’s. For NMP’s a 3 year
implementation is planned and R15m has been allocated for 2006/7 to appoint external consultants on
a prioritised basis for NMP’s
Impact assessment completed by:
Name : Ed Bunge
Designation : Network Master Planning Specialist (Eastern Region)
with the user Plans

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GUIDELINE

Document Classification: Controlled Disclosure

Effective date: MAY 2007

Revision date: MAY 2010

Signed Signed Signed Signed

E Bunge - Eskom C G Carter-Brown A Bekker MN Bailey

Other drivers for comprehensive electricity network planning include:

 the findings of the CTAD audit on the network planning environment

This is a new document, which has been classified as a ‘Guideline’.

This document has been seen and accepted by:

Chris du Toit Network Planning Manager - Central

Together NMP’s and NDP’s are used as:

This document provides a guideline for:

 managing the production of NMP’s and NDP’s

Terms of Reference Framework for NMP’s & NDP’s, Rev 1

The SA Distribution Grid Code, Rev 4 (draft) NERSA document

DISASACP2, Rev B (draft), Network Planning Guideline

Network Planning Reliability Improvement Guideline

ESKSCSPVBBC2, Rev 3, Capital Investment Process (incl. NACVC)

Eskom Distribution GLF Procedure (In Progress)

TSPAG0021, Rev 0, Transmission System Planning Guide (TSPG)

The SA Transmission Grid Code, Rev 0, NERSA document

SCSASACN7, Rev 1, Distribution Voltage Regulation and Apportionment Limits

Eskom Standard Planning Tools and Data (in progress)

NMP Summary Report – Example (in progress)

NDP Summary Report – Example (draft).

3. Definitions and Abbreviations

3.1.3 CAPEX: Capital Expenditure

3.1.6 Distribution: Eskom’s Distribution Business

3.1.7 Feeder Zone: Supply area of a feeder

3.1.13 Scenario: A postulated future event or sequence of possible events

3.1.17 Substation Zone: Supply area of a substation

3.1.18 Sub-transmission System: Typically 44kV and ≤132kV sub-transmission network

3.1.20 Wayleave: Refers to line routes in mainly rural areas

3.1.21 “Distribution Networks”: All sub-transmission and reticulation electrical equipment

Power System Planning Horizons

Project Lead Time [years]

Figure 3-1: Typical Planning Horizons - Source: H Lee Willis [10]

A NMP has the following characteristics:

A NDP has the following characteristics:

Figure 3-2: Time Perspective of NMP’s vs. NDP’s

3.2.1 AM/FM: Automated Mapping / Facility Management

3.2.2 CIP: Capital Investment Process

3.2.3 COUE: Cost of Unserved Energy [R/kWh]

3.2.4 CRA: Concept Release Approval (ex-Form 10)

3.2.5 CSA: Customer Service Area

3.2.6 DPA: Development Plan Approval (ex-Form 1)

3.2.7 DSM: Demand Side Management

3.2.8 EDI: Electricity Distribution Industry

3.2.9 EEM: Economic Evaluation Model

3.2.10 EIA: Environmental Impact Assessment

3.2.11 ESI: Electricity Supply Industry

3.2.12 FEM: Financial Evaluation Model

3.2.13 FSA: Field Service Area

3.2.14 GIS: Geographical Information System

3.2.15 HELP: Housing and Electrification Planning

3.2.16 HV: High Voltage ( >33kV )

3.2.17 IBR: Incentive-Based Regulation

3.2.18 IDP: Integrated Development Plan(ing)

3.2.19 IRP: Integrated Resource Planning

3.2.20 kA: kiloamp (unit of current)

3.2.21 KSACS: Key Sales and Customer Services

3.2.22 kV: kilovolt (unit of voltage)

the findings of the CTAD audit on the network planning environment

managing the production of NMP’s and NDP’s

Regulated stable environment (pre-1970’s)

Line loading can change drastically due to trading

Changes in weather (line and transformer ratings)

By considering network alternatives

Load growth (power and energy)

Analyse each scenario (i.e. it’s likelihood and impact)

Net Present Value (NPV)

Dependence on outside sources

artificial units to measure the relative ranking of different plans,

investment is large, and

degree of uncertainty is very high.