Canadian Water Resources Journal

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DROUGHT AND HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT

RESEARCH IN CANADA: An evaluation of the state
of the art

G.A. McKay , R.B. Godwin & J. Maybank

To cite this article: G.A. McKay , R.B. Godwin & J. Maybank (1989) DROUGHT AND
HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT RESEARCH IN CANADA: An evaluation of the state of the art ,
Canadian Water Resources Journal, 14:3, 71-84, DOI: 10.4296/cwrj1403071

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 DROUGHT AND HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT
RESEARCH IN GANADA:I
An evaluatlon of the state of the art

G.A. McKaf, R.B. Godwin3, and J. Maybanka

Abstract
This review considers the problems posed by drought, and summarizes related
research needs and future directions, as presented atthe 1986 Regina Symposium:
"Drought: The lmpending Crisis?".
Drought rscurrencs is certain. Each is different, posing new challengss because
of socio-economic as well as physical change. Hydrologists have a central role
corrcerning drought - in its prediction and other inputs to policry, planning and des[n,
in developing conservation technobgies, and in related inter-disciplinary research.
Vulnerabilily to drought is increasing. lts socio-economic impads ar€ now more
widespread and divErse than previously. Deterministic prediction of occurrencE and
conssquences is needed forplanning and remedialaci'on, butelusive. The prediciive
utility of hydrological models is limited by the inability to forecast climatic drought.
Traditional defenses such as irrigation are effective and their use can be improved.
Defensive technobgies such as snow cover managemsnt, the recharge and use of
groundwater, and pract'ces such as pricing, rationing, and water sharing are improv-
ing and their further research is a sound investment. Sound policy decisions on the
long-term environmental implications of land-use and water managemsnt pracl'rces,
on tradeoffs between irrigation, navigation and power are dependent on improved
drought-related knowledge. Decreasing potability of supplies and increasing udcan
demands could be criticalfactors in f uture droughts in some basins. To address these
numerous issues, drought research must be better integrated and undertaken on a
f irm, continuing basis.

R6sum6
Les problAmes de la s6cheresses, les besoins et direct'ons en recherche, comme
propos6s au colloque de R6gina en 1986 sur "La S6cheresse:La Grise imminent',
sont le sujet de cette revue. Les s6cheresses, il y sn aura toujours. Chacune sst
ditf6rente et demande de nouvelles r6ponses en raison de l'6volution socio-
6conomique et physique. Les hydrologistes y jouent un r6le principal, grace A leur
exp€rtise. lls participent A la surveillance et la pr6vision, A l'6tablissement de lignes
de conduite, i la planif ication, d la conception, A la technologie de conservation et A
la recherche interdisciplinaire.
La vuln6rabilit6 augmente. Les cons6quences socio-6conomiques ne sont plus
que 169ionales, elles s'6tendent au niveau national. Des pr6visions d6terministiques
des occurrences et leurs etfets socio-6conomQues sont r6quises, mais nous
6chappent. Les modAles hydrologiques ont besoin de telles pr6visions surtout de la
pr6cipitation. Pour manque de cette capacit6, leur utilit6 est limit6e. L'enlreposage
est I'une des protections traditionelles efficaces. Les technologies de conservation

1. 'The National Research Council of Canadas Associate Commi$ee on Hydrology

'rdentifies, solicits and promotes the preparation of state-of-the-art
paper on hydrologi-
cal topics that require research. The Comittee has requested the preparation of this
report and is pleased to bring it to your attention. The views expressed in it are the
authors.
2. Consuhant, 122 Brmke St. , Thornhill, Ontarb
3. RBG-H2O Company Ltd., 12 Datfodil Cresent, Regina Saskatchewan
4. Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

Canadian Water Resources Journal 71

Vol. 14, No. 3, 1989
 comme la gestion de la couverture nivale et les pratiques comme I'utilisation et le
renouvellement des eaux souterraines, le ratbnnement et le partage des ressources
en eaux s'am6liorent et on ne fait que bien investir en poursuivant leur recherche.
Les lignes de conduite sur les cons6quences environnementales A long terme des
pratiques d'utilisation des terres et de la gestion des eaux, et sur les choix
qu'imposent I'irrigation, la nav[ation et l'6nergie, demandent beaucoup plus
d'attention. Des ressources potables A la baisse et une une demande accrue des
centres urbains pourraient avoir de s6rieux effets sur la capacit6 de certains bassins
de faire face A des s6cheresses dans I'avenir. Afin de comprendre ces problAmes,
on doil mieux int6grer et poursuivre, sur une base solirie et continue, la recherche
sur les s6cheresses

lntroduction
Droughts are natural phenomena whose
recurrenos is certain. The seriousness of
their socio-economic impacts has led to iheir
intensive study. On the other hand, their
periodic nature and interdisciplinary charac-
ter has resuhed in highly varied support and
the lragmentation of research. Each drought
is ditferent in its nature and impact, varying
with the forcing system, affecled environ-
ments, population densities, economies and
attitudes. Their etf ects are lar reaching and
not conf ined to water resources and agricul-
ture.
Despite technological advances,
drought impacts have become more in-
creasingly serious as a resuh of increasing
demands for water. "Widespread develop-
ment of hydroelectrb power, the expansion
of irrigated lands, growth of population, and
increased per capita water usage, have all
combined to reduce the region's ability to
withstand a drought of three or more years
duration" (Dep't. Regional Economic Expan-
sion, 1978). In addition, the increasing land
degradation process is increasing our vul-
nerability to drought.
Etfective short- and long-term remedial
and strategic plans are needed to adequate-
ly defend against future droughts. These
plans require improved technologies,
monitoring and prediction capabilities for
their implementation. Supporting the
development of those capabilities is a major
role of hydrological research. Sustainable
development of water and land resources
requires management practices be sensitive
to drought hazards and to changing technol-
ogy and socio-economic forces. Policies
and planning must account for vul-
nerabilities that vary markedly with each
drought, with time, and f rom region to region.
Planning for and timely reaction to
drought requires adsquats knowledge of its
characteristics, of likely socio-economic
stresses, and lhe consequences of a variety
of mhigative policry and planning alterna-
tives. Traditional wisdom can be exploited
more effec'tively and improved. Examples
are improved water and soil conservation
techniques, the development ol more
drought-proof crops (including advances in
water demand management and the ability
to predict the effects of technological
change), and the reversal of pradices con-
ducive to desertif ication and soil salinization.
Major knowledge gaps include th€ abilhy to
predict drought onset, intensity and tsrmina-
tion, and the ability to adequately assess the
socio-economic consequences of alterna-
tive drought strategies. The development of
mitigative policies and measurss requires
knowledge from many scientific disciplines.
The challenges are formidable, but
realizable. The answers are of vital impor-
tance regionally and within the global com-
munity.
Drought has challenged mankind over
millennia, and some highly efieaive tech-
nologies have been developed. Every
drought differs in ils physical cause, socio-
economic environmenl, and technological
opportunilies. For these reasons, drought
mitigation plans must continually change.
Recent advances in monitoring and com-
municating information permits a more ef-
fective fight against drought. Afthough im-
proved use of information on weather and
climate can assist, the main concsrn is water
resource management. lmProved
knowledge of the status and dynamics of
water resources, along with improved plan-
ning and use of the resource, are basic goals
of drought research.
Drought impacts, generally defined on

72 Revue canadienne des ressourcss hydriques

Vol. 14, No. 3, 1989
lne oasts ol soclo-g@nomrc @nsequences,
have received much attention in recent
years. A valid question, then, is whose prob-
lem is it? Since the central cause is a watgr
deficiency, hydrologists have an obv'tous ac-
countakrility. But what is the proper role of
hydrological research? The hydrologist
must assume a central role in definition of
the water resourcss; in the development of
the interdisciplinary understanding needed
for policy, planning, and engineering design;
in the development of conservation toch-
nologies; and in supply monitoring and
prediction. Hydrologists musl also provide
that knowledge and guidance needed for
interdisciplinary research and a great diver-
sity of other drought related concerns. Be-
cause of the highly interdisciplinary charac-
ter of thess @ncarns, they cannot be dealt
whh solely by hydrologists and scientists.
Many other disciplines must become in-
volved to ensure that ressarch results will be
both relevant and useful.
This review presents drought rssearch
needs identified at the 1986 Canadian
Hydrology Symposium, 'Drought: The lm-
pending Crisis", and in recent literature. lt
was prepared at the request of the National
Research Council's Associate Committee
on Hydrobgy as partof acontinuing effort to
keep Canada's water research community
informed on research needs and oppor-
tunities. lts four sections outline aspects of
the character of drought and the status of
drought-related hydrologic research. After a
description of the dimensions of drought
there is a section dealing in more detailwith
the hydrological dimEnsions followed by a
description ol how water management
policies can be used as a drought fighting
tool. The fourth and last section addresses
current drought research needs and ends
with a summary of the indicated needs and
dirEctions.
Dimensions of Drought
The impac{s of drought have been felt
across Canada. lt produced lamine and
economic depression during early settle-
ment by Europeans. Forest fires in coastal
provinces and the North are common
manifestat'ons of drought. However, for the
most part, drought is synonymous wilh the
Great Plains ssctor of the Prairie Provinces.
At least 20 serious droughts occurred in
Western Canada in the 19th csntury (Hope,
Canadian Water Resources Journal
Vol. 14, No. 3, 1989
MU; irongs, lJ+lt. Itls ( rlllelrlalKrll ul
drought and a major economic depression
struck th€ Plains again in the 1930's. 'Com-
plete or near crop failures @urred in 1931,
1936, 1937 and 1941 wilh yields generally
reduced during the entire period.....ln 1937
the viability of agricuhure in the Palliser Tri-
angle was still in doubt" (Le Roux, 't984).
Drought inthe 1930's atfected 7.3 million ha
of agricultural land. In combination with the
depression it intensified the poverty, and
general dislress, forcing a quarter millbn
people to leave the Prairies. Subsequent
malor droughts have not had an equivalent
social impact but the mnomic impodarrce
of drought continues to mount (irlcKay and
Williams, 1981 ; Roger, 1986).
Detlnltlons
What specilically is drought? There is a mul-
titude of drought definitions and the lack of
a common standard has confused many.
Drought def initions may be conceSual (rela-
tively vague) or specific as used operalion-
ally to def ine onset, severity and termination
(Wilhite and Glantz (1985). Examples vary
from Linsley's (1982) general description of
'socio-political drought' resulting f rom poor
management and over-commitment of
regional watsr resources to thE United
Kingdom's precise definitbn - 'a perbd of 15
or mors days without precipitation'.
Operational definitions suggest four
principal disciplinary groupings
meteorolog ical, ag ricultural, hydrolog ic and
socio-economic. Analyzing Canadian
usage, Liverman (1979, 1980) found the
f requency of use of these ditferent groupings
was in the proportion 12:13:4:16. Most of
them identify a def'rciency in a water balance
component. Generally speaking,
meteorological drought definitions are
based on a precipitalion deficiency, agricul-
turaldrought on a soil moisture deficienry,
while hydrological drought pertains to a sur-
face water resourcs deficiency. Socio-
economic drought intensities are measured
in terms of the impac't water deficiencies
have on communities and their economies.
Most important, however, is the specifb
nature of the affectsd resource or astivity.
Each can have ditferent thresholds and
responses. For example, a soil moisture
shortage that is important for plant growth
may have little significance for hydropower
generation. Dilferent formulae may be
73
necsssary within a discipline because of
diflering vulnerabilities, eg. the different
water demands of wheat and alfalfa. The
AES Drought Study Group (Street et al.,
1986) selected a watsr balance approach
that could be manied with crop moisture
demand lo define drought - i.e. the level of
drought intensity would vary with ditferent
crops. Although soil moisture is critical for
growth, the water balance of forest litter is
most important in assessing forest fire risks.
End-use is the major consideration in estab-
lishing a definition (McKay, 1986). The
ability to m€asure is another factor. For ex-
ample satellite imagery introdrces new and
very eff€ctiv€ proxy methods of assessing
changes in aridity (Prout et al., 1986). The
variety of definitions used may cause con-
fusion, but they are essential to define the
many facets of drought and are used accord-
ingly in this report.
Character
Droughts occur in a host of time- and space-
scales, the impad increasing with the size
of the area atfeded, duration, intensity, and
vulnerability which may, in turn, be depend-
ent on timing and the sequencing of dry
periods. For example, agricuhural drought
can be spotty within an area, one lownship
being affected while adjacent onss are
spared. The two primary forcing fundions
are natural climate variation and human ac-
tivity. Climate variations that last from a
month lo years are the root of most droughts
but human impacts on resources and
climate and the changing demand for water
are also major contributing factors (McKay
and Allsopp 1977; McKay and Williams
1981; Knox 1982; McKay 1986).
Vulnerablllty
Drought resuhs from the persistence, con-
linuous or intermittent, of atmospheric cir-
culalion patterns that failto prodrce needed
precipitation. These are most prevalent and
critical in semi-arid areas. Their economic
impacts can be locally intensive, but become
diffused as they are distributed across the
economy. Buffering against drought has
been obtained historically by industrial diver-
sification, risk spreading, crops insurance,
assistance, etc. (McKay and Williams,
1981). Less butfered sectors such as live-
stock production and farm implement
manufacturing can be strongly affected. Ex-
74
isting economic systems can cope with com-
monlyoccurring dry periods - for example
Prairie cereal production has been con-
sidered relatively secure against droughts of
up to two years duration (Le Roux, 1984).
The extrerne Events thd exceed 'design"
limits create most havoc. Unbuffered and
less visible is the chrcnic deterioration and
loss of topsoil in semi-arid areas.
Early droughts forced settlers off their
lands. The increased debt load that came
with mechanization is blamed in partforfarm
problems in the 1930's mix of drought and
depression. The intense drought of 1961 dkJ
not lead to emigratbn from the Plains as in
the 1930s. Actuallythere was even optimism
that new technologies and risk-spreading
had conquered drought. Alternative employ-
ment in towns and cities had decreased
farmer vulnerability but new vulnerabilities
appeared. The impacts on town and regional
economies were sevsre as spending be-
came seriously cuflailed. A winterdrought in
1976-77 saw the return of soil drifling and
damage to city and town watsr supply sys-
tems through frost penetration. As noted by
Hilf (1984), lhe 1977 drought was not dis-
astrous, but "it was sufficiently severe to
startle prairie residsnts out of a lethargy
developed over a number of years of above
adequate moisture'. lt led to funding of
socio-economic modelling studies that are
ref lecied in literature (Poyser, 1984; Kraft,
1984; Chambers, 1984; Arthur and Kraft,
1986; Kulshreshtha et al., 1986a; Fautley et
al., 1986a; O'Grady et al., 1986). The
modelling was in support of watsr develop-
ment strategic planning lo mitigate future
droughts. The 1980 drought in Manitobaand
southeastern Saskatchswan cost the
Canadian agri-food system an estimated
$1 billion (Fraser, 1981). fts major victims
included lorests, and electric energy
generation. Economic studies by Fautley et
al. (1986b) of the 1984-85 droughts dis-
closed $1.1 billion bss - lhe largest impact
being felt by financial, insurance and real
estate institutions.
The Great Lakes Basin has also ex-
perienced major economic losses through
drought. Historically its agriculture and
economy have been highly vulnerable to
drought. Mechanization and diversification
have reduced the overall vulnerability, but
costs are still high. The drought of the 1960s
necessitated dredging and cargo lransfers
Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques
Vol. 14, No. 3, 1989
as oocKrng lacilntes osc€lm€ omlcull Io use.
Vessel loadings were reduced up to 1360
tonnes below capacity in 1964.
Hydroelectric energy generation fell 20 per
cent at Niagara Falls. Also affecled were
irrigation, discharge and intake pipes, wet-
lands essential for fish and waterfowl, fish
stocks, water quality, consumptive use, and
recreational beaches and waterways. The
total direst loss was estimated to be well
over $100 million and, with ripple effects, the
losses probably exceeded $1 billion. Vul-
nerability is continually increasing with in-
dustrial and population growth within the
Basin (Allsopp et al., 1979).
Drought has major environmental and
ecological implbations. Habitats of birds
animals and fish are destroyed and ecosys-
tems radbally ahered (Davis, 19&4; Mould-
ing, 1984). Reduced runoff means less
sewage dilution, increased water tempera-
tures, algae, salinity and increased risks to
public heahh. Stockponds are depleted and
the caltle populations they support reduced.
Drought can also weaken and kill trees, and
create conditions favorable for forest fires,
ioxins or pests.
Many chies and towns are periodically
forced to introduce vigorous water conser-
vation programs because of drought. Cities
in other countries have been forced to take
draconian measures to conserve vital sup-
plies. Realistic pricing structures have been
proposed to reduce demands because of
the rapidly increasing demand and competi-
tion for this limited resource (McKay 1986).
An estimated 650,000 km'of farming
and grazing land have been lost to the
Sahara desert over the past 50 years. But
desertification is not unique to Africa. lt oc-
curs in all settled continents and in Ganada
(U nited Nations, 1 9TI). Aparllrom long-term
climate change, the primary cause is human
aclivity; the process is aided by drought.
Arresting and repairing the damage requires
improved management practices and tech-
nologies based on hydrological research.
Hydrological Dimensions
Simply stated, drought is a shortage of
water. Rodier (1981), taking an hydrologist's
perspedive, described drought as existing
when, over a sufficiently long period (month,
ysar or several years), a natural water
deficiency occurs in relation to the average
value resuhing from precipitation, and from
Canadian Water Resources Journal
Vol. 14, No.3, 1989
sunace ano uno€rgrounq suPPlltts. urougtlt
is dependent on the nature of the resource
or activity affected. A shortage of water at a
critical time for crop growth is an 4ricuhural
drought, but that same situation would not
affect hydropower generation if reservoirs
are full (Rodier, ibki). ln every instance, the
cause is the same - a shodage of water.
Aspects of these water shortages continue
to be studied, but a more intensive and
integrated approach is required to attain the
levels of drouglrt proofing and mitigation
needed by our rapidly changing society (Wil-
hite, 1986).
SurfaceWater Supplles - Low
Stage and Low Flow
The physical cause of drought is a lack of
precipitation. Below average snowf all and/or
rainfall are followed by below average
runotf . Whether or not that runotf is the end
result of outflow from rainfall, snowfall or
groundwater, the result is the same.
Streamflow is dependent on precipitation
and when the precipitation balance is in
deficit, drought occurs.
Numerous models have b€en developed
to measurs the duratbn and intensity of
droughts. Four examples ol these models
were presented at the 1986 Drought Con-
ference in Regina. Pelletier et al. (1986),
Pilon and Condie (1986) and Logan (1986)
described regionalized approaches based
on historic evaluations of droughts in
Canada, and Obedkotf (1986) presented a
way to analyze drought flow in British
Columbia. None of these pap€rs prssents a
method to predict future droughts before
they occur.
At the 1986 drought symposium, a num-
ber of authors suggested types of forecast-
ing parameters that might be used. Mattison
and Russell (1986) forecast streamflow in
the immediate future based on streamflow
characteristics, and Whiting (1986) gave
some insight into the extent of the problem
by illustrating how climate is related to semi-
arid glaciated Prairie Lakes. Foroud (1986)
discussed the potential for using weather
radar for runoff prediction and some of the
problems of applying this concept to moun-
tainous areas. Wojtiw and Barbw (1987)
discussed the potential of weather radar for
the same purpos€ and Dyer (1987) reported
on a drought early-warning system for
prairie pasture land.
75
 Future research priorities should be
aimed at the long-term predictive
capabilities of existing models and at incor-
porating radar and sat€llite imagery (Hogg
et al., 1986). iiodels can be and should be
developed that linkclimate and weatherdata
with streamflow and river stago data. The
need for mors oomprshensive models was
noted in the low-flow study of the Old Man
River in Alberta (Fermer, 1986). lt concluded
that better indices must be developed if
drought risk whhin a basin is to be recog-
nized sutf iciently in advarrce lorthe planning
and implementation of drought control
measures. That view was reiterated by
Mackay {1987). Hs noted that one of tho
three basic components of any drought con-
trol program should be:
.... a drought nnonitoring capability which
provides decision maksrs with continuously
updated reports on the stats of the resource
and the chance of drought induced stress
and the consequences thereof....
Many monitoring models exist (Louie,
1986; Mapanao and Louie, 1986). Other
manual and computerized models that could
enhance forecasting capabilities have been
proposed. However, researchers have not
been abio to produce viable, long-term
forecasts using available krnwledge and
data. The possibility exists that droughts
may never be successfully predicted for
more lhan one season in advance. Until
precipitation or a proxy for precipitation can
be successfully estimated for longer time
periods, derivalive streamflow cannot be es-
timated with required accuracy where runoff
is very responsive to short-tsrm to seasonal
precipitation"
In sorne areas of Canada, such as the
far north, therE is a f urther concern. Existing
data are limited, or may be non-existent.
Predictbns for these areas may necessitate
the use of theoretical parameters derived for
other areas that may not be hydrologically
analogous. Fortunately drought is not yet a
rnajor socio-economic problem in the north,
but that @ncern will grow as the areas bE-
come developed.
Water Quallty Conslderailons
A study of streamflow availability would be
incomplete if the potential changes in water
quality as a direct result of decreased flow
were not considered. Phns to alleviate fu-
ture droughts should consider the the
76
deterioration in water quality thai occurs
when a volumetr'rcally reducsd water source
is used to transport the same amount of
natural and man-made substancss. ln addi-
tion to the range of parametsrs consitlered
historically, there are now valid @noerns
related to the numerous toxb substances
found in agricultural, industrial and
municipal waste waters. Water resource
manag€rs in the Prairie Provinces ara pa'-
ticularly concerned that, in the future, the
quality of water in reduced flow condilions
may become a critical drought factor.
Groundwater
An alternate source of water frequenlly
proposed and/or used during perkrds of
drought is groundwater. Ahhough lhe state
of knowledge related to groundwater is
limited, the total amount of recoverable,
potable groundwater is small in comparison
to sudace water supplies. ln most cases,
groundwater supplies are not subjed to the
variability of surface watsr, a point illustrated
by Rululis (1987).
Known groundwaler sourcss are now
being catalogued, new sourcss are being
investigated and deep buried aquifers, as
reported by van der Kamp (1986), are being
defined. However, much more research and
development is needed before the resource
can be developed for supplementary water
supplies in drought periods. An example of
how groundwater might be utilized in below
normal periods was provided by Render
(1987). The Assiniboine Delta Aquifer in
southern Manitoba was modelled and the
Assiniboine West subdivision cited"as an
example. This section of the aquifer could
provide an estimated firm yield of from 5600
1o7400 acre-feet peryear. During adrought,
lhe annualyield could be doubled to 13000
acre-feet for short periods of time. Applba-
tion of this promising strategy is constrained
by the lack of knowledge of the allowable
yields of aquifers and the probable duration
and intensity of future droughts.
Water Balance Technlques
When drought threatens, the first response
is to f ind a method to augment existing sup-
plies to eliminate or modify currsnt
shortages. Storage is an obvious structural
solution. To that end, hundreds of large
reservoirs and thousands ol small dams and
dugouts have been buih by the Prairie Farm
Revue canadienne des ressourcss hydriques
Vol. 14, No. 3, 1989
Rehabilitation Administration (PFRA), since
its inception in 1935 to drought-proof the
Prairies (cf. PFRA Annual Reports). They
are effedive and do a critically important job,
enabling people to survive and live in an
area that, historically, has been subject to
major droughts. However, there are also
non-structural afternatives that can mitigate
shortages. Rationing of water, price in-
creases lo restrict use, the sharing of limited
supplies on a voluntary basis and foregoing
some usss in dry years are familiar and
reliable means of reducing the total con-
sumption of water. They cannot always
solve the water shortage problem, but they
can reduce its inlensity.
Snow management is another way to
increass the etfectiveness of local water
supplies. Research by Swanson and Bernier
(1986), disclosed that further development
ol well*nown timber management practices
to snhance snow pack development in
forested areas hold good promise for f uture
exploitation. Similar studies have been
made on the Prairies by Nicholaichuk and
Gray (1986) and Granger and Gray (1986).
Both are part of continuing, long-term
studies to improve the percentage of snow-
fall retained by prairie environments by
modifying the ground sudace to retain more
snowfall, to trap drifting snow and to en-
hance inlihration or impoundment. lt has not
been proven to the satisfaction of most prac-
ticing hydrologists that the above "snow
storage" methods improve the overall water
supply potential of larger drainage basins,
but they do have a positive effect on local
supplies and future research in this area will
be followed with interest by all concerned.
Water Management
The governments of Canada and the Provin-
ces have studied droughts and their
economic impact for many years (Royal
Commission on the South Saskatchewan
River, 1952). Their concerns are direct and
critical because droughts impact on all levels
of society. The recommendations made in
these studies have b€en implemented to
alleviate the etfects of water shortages, both
by establishing long-lerm drought-remedia-
tion agencies such as the PFRA and by
establishing short-term ad hoc emergency
programs.
Short-term programs that allow the
people concerned to survive until the water
Canadian Water Resources Journal
Vol.14, No.3, 1989
balance returns to a more normal state are
usually costly. They do little to correct the
basic problem. Long-term programs are in-
tended to eliminate the nesd for short-term
prograrns by forward planning. This plan-
ning aspect was dealt with by several
authors at the 1986 Drougttt Gonference.
Kuhnko (1986) described how water is allo-
cated in the South Saskatchewan River
Basin in Alberta, and Richards (1986)
reported on the operational alternativEs
used to optimizo water use from Lake
Diefenbaker. Chen and Godwin (1986)
showed how the interprovincial water is
shared equitably in dry periods and Banga
et af. (1986) discussed th€ typ€s of dry year
problems that arise in International basins
tributary to the Missouri Fliver Basin. Collec-
tively these pap€rs illustrate how existing
supplies are manag€d in water-short
periods lo share the limited supplies. In-
herent in the definition of user is an assump-
tion that eacfi use has been legally sanc-
lioned by the provincial agenry responsible
for licensing water use. These allocations
are based on studies of the drainage area's
potential so that the available water supply
will not be exceeded by consumptive use.
Thus the licensing ag€ncy acts as a
moderating influence on users by not allow-
ing uses to develop beyond a reasonable
level. Historically, each license was granted
on a first-in-time-first-in-right basis, but this
policy has traditionally been applied
humanely with shortfalis in supply being
shared among all ussrs. However, more ef-
feclive techniques are required to ensure
that this workable conceot is continued on a
more systematic and legal basis.
lf the planning stralegies of government,
including their legal framework to allocate
water equitably, are to work, then the public
and the politicians that make the rules must
understand th€ trus value and worth of
water. They must have a better under-
standing of the social values of multi-use
issues such as maintaining an agricuhural
economy based on irrigation as opposed to
the preservation of rivers in their natural
state for aesthetic and wildlife purposes.
They should be prepared to equitably adjudi-
cate the industrial, municipal or recreational
use of water for the uhimate good of society.
Furthermore, they must realize that the
limited resources are reduced in below nor-
mal years of precipitation. Any commitment
77
to change or not to change the natural con-
dition of a river atfec-ts all existing and future
water uses in a drainage basin. Finally,
changes must be socially, polhically and
economically acceptable to the public be-
cause public lunds are used to pay for both
the capital works and the yearly main-
tenance.
Water resources ressarch scientists
also have a basic responsibility. They must
be able to effectively communicate the
rssults of their work to decision-makers and
to the public so that subsequent decisions to
reinforce the long-term drought proofing of
an arsa are made in an enlightened environ-
ment. lmproved communications between
the scientists, decision-makers and the
public is of vital importance in the interest of
general and intergenerational equity. In the
absence of good understanding and com-
mun'rcation, there is a serious risk of fr.rture
generations being serbusly disadvantaged
by short-s'rghted, and ad-hoc decisions.
Allocatlons, Use and Development
Lands atfected by drought and not main-
tained by conservation techniques may be
subject to desertification as noted by God-
win (1986). This problem exists in Canada
as well as in many other parts of the world.
Senator Sparrow (1987) pointed out that
Canadian soils are degenerating fasterthan
did the soils in Ethbpia and Sudan in earlier
days. While this warning must b€ taksn
serbusly, Stewart et al. (1986) suggest that
farming technQues have steadily improved
from 1930to 1982. lltho techniques in place
in 1982 had been used during the drought of
lhe 1930's, grain yields would have been
measurably larger and there would have
been less damage to the land. Furthermore,
Dyer (1987) and Wojtiw and Barlow (1987)
proposs drought warning systems that can
be used along with good management prac-
tices to.further reduce the losses in produc-
tive capability due to drought. The impact of
drought on agricuftural management and
forestry is not addressed in this review. ln
view of the possible serious etfects of
drought on soils and the important land
managemsnt - hydrology linkages, further
research into the interacting mechanisms is
indicated.
Each solution to water supply shonagss
generates a new set of potential problems
that must be studiEd lo ensure that the total
78
environment is not harmed. For example, if
diversions are used to dramatbally increase
the volume of water available care must be
taken in both the donor and receiving basins
to ensure the ecosystems ars preserved.
The decrease or increase in the volume of
water available, the potential transfer of
biota, the ditferences in watertemperatures
of the two streams and other simihr faciors
become c€luses for corrcern and are areas
where research is required. The irrcremenlal
effec{ of below normal streamf lowduring dry
periods in eitherone of the streams involved
multiplies the problem exponentially. The
entire field of aquatic toxicology and biotic
transfer will become an increasingly impor-
tant field of research as the search for
potable water makes new mairr diversions
a fact of life.
Positive and negative effects of im-
poundments on streamflow have been well
documented in past years, but continuing
studies are needed to verify pre€nstruc-
tion assumptions after the project has been
completed. For example, post-construction
evaluation of several pre-construction as-
sumptions concerning sedimentation buil-
dup in Lake Diefenbaker disclosed that the
most optimistic assumptions were valid and
that massive sedimentation will not be an
operational problem in this reservoir. Project
benefits (stabilized water supply, increased
recreational use, etc) can usually be readily
defined, but potential disbenefits, such as
long-term losses to the ecosystem, can only
be determined by continued moniloring and
study. These studies are required as part ol
the overall drought r€search etfort regard-
less of potential disbenefits of major reser-
voir development, since the buiHing of such
reservoirs will be proposed when the need
is urgent. Ratherthan guess, planners must
know what the cumulalive etfscts of such
large projects will be on the total environ-
ment. Untilthat information is available, ra-
tional decis'rons cannot be made.
The Prairie Provirpes share their water
interprovincially underthetermsof the'1 969
Master Agreement on Apportionment"
(Chen and Godwin, 1986). Both the quantity
and quality of water are considered, and
since each province knows in advance how
much water is available for use, they are
able to better cope with the problems that
occur in drought years. Current investiga-
tions into the prrcticality of extending this
Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques
Vol. 14, No.3, 1989
work across Canada could provide a basis
for similar agreemsnts in other regions. This
type of sharing provides interprovincial, non-
struclural, drought-proofing wilh equitable
sharing of water, while still maximizing over-
all benef hs to the provinces concerned.
lrrigation provides a way lo watsr crops
when precipilation is inadequate. h is one of
the oldest major water uses in history and is
the largest consumpiive use'xjenti{ied in the
Prairie Provinces Water Board's (PPWB)
Water DEmand Study (1982). Jones and
Yarotski (1986) and Kulshreshtha et al.
(1986b) illustrated how small and medium
sized projects protect the farming com-
munity from dror.rght and are viable from a
holistic viewpoint. O'Grady et al. (1986)
enumeratsd the fadors involved in deciding
whether to use water for irrQation or power
purposes, and concluded that the real
decision must be based on social accept-
ability as well as on econom'rc factors. That
viewpoint has been expressed frequenlly in
recent years as economists have difficuhy in
justifying major expenditures lor irrigation on
economic grounds.
lrrigation, as a long-term drought control
measure, will be further enhanced as mors
is learned of the factors involved. Fermer
(1986) noted the problems on forecasting
drought sequences. Roeper and Rey
(1987), and Gillies et al. (1986b) showed
how groundwater might be used to supple-
ment normal irrigation sources. These
papers, and similar work by other authors,
provide promising new avenuesof research.
As more is understood about the benefits of
irrigation, its economic justification may be-
come mors apparent to a society plagued
with drought.
Municipal and industrial uses are rela-
tively small compared to irrigation use
(PPWB Water Demand Study, 1982). As in
the case of Nokomis, these requirements
can often be supplied completely f rom more
stable groundwater sources (Meneley,
1986). During drought perbds, municipal
uses lraditionally take precedence over all
other major uses because ol the large num-
ber of people involved. Rationing may be
required, but unless the water source be-
comss completely depleted, the right to the
use of water is relatively secure. Further
research in this area shouH bE concsntrated
on maximizing the efficiency of existing uses
and on improving the quality of municipal
Ganadian Water Resources Journal
Vol. 14, No. 3, 1989
waste waters and/or finding alternative
ways, such as effluent irrigation, to rEdrce
downstream pollution.
While power is the single largest non-
consumptive use in the Saskatchewan Nel-
son Basin, its produdion is one of the lirst
usesto b€ redrced during droughtsbecause
electric power can be purchased from other
sources. Since current means of producing
and delivering power are welldeveloped and
eff icient, future research in this area may be
limited. Nevertheless reports relatirB power
usage to other uses, such as that produced
by O'Grady et al. (1986), are helpfulin gukJ-
ing the complex decisions to be made on
water use.
As discussed previously, groundwater
may be used to supplement surface water
supplies in drought periods. lvlcre needs to
be known about the location and availability
of such water before it can be properly ex-
ploited. The studies by van der Kamp (1986)
on deep buried-valley aquilers in Sas-
katchewan, and by Vermetle and Lebedin
(1986) on a joint strategy to use ground-
water monitoring statbns operated by the
Saskatctrewan Research Council, provide
examples ol the type of information that
must be gathered to exploit this water
sourcg.
Papers by Gillies et al. (1986a), describ-
ing how ground water aquifers could be
recharged wilh surplus surface water, and
that by Roeper and Rey (1986) describing
the potential use of groundwater lor irriga-
tion, provide needed additional information
for the development of groundwater as a
supplementary source. The continuing need
forsuch information has been pointed out by
Pearse (1985). The lack of federal attention
to groundwater and the poorstateof existing
groundwater inventories were notsd and the
conclusion reached that "The Federal
Government should seekthe cooperation of
the provincial governments to extend the
water data collection systems to include
Canadian groundwater resources.'
Addressino Research
Priorities -
Research needs for drought are many and
varied. Hydrological research activity is the
bgical focal point, with obvious ties to a
broad range of other disciplines.
Other than drought, hydrological re-
ssarch must address many concorns. The
79
collectivity of papers prssentsd at the sym-
posium'Drought: The lmpending Crisis? ln
Canada, shows that Canada's drought re-
search is fragmented. Furthermore drought
research tends to be intermittent because of
the nature of the financial support en-
gendered for it. Hydrological research suc-
cess, whether for drought, flooding or watsr
management, requ i res comprehensiveness
and continuity. The hydrologic cycle cannol
be understmd and interpreted in bits and
pieces, nor can the needed research be
turned on and off like water from a tap.
Coordination of a well integrated program
would be difficuh and may require the ser-
vbes of a secretariat.
One mairr requirement in hydrology for
Canada is the development of a total water
data base, much like ths climate data bank
of the Atmospheric Environment Service.
Histofically we seem to have a muhiplicity of
water information sample sets, both for
quantily and quality. Each was gathered for
purpose or projecl, and many have
a specif ic
been terminated after that immediate need
was served. The data are in a variety of
formats and are stored with diverse agen-
cies, and ready accessibility is a problem.
The goal should be to develop an inven-
tory or a country wide csnsus for water. A
current data base exists in national and
provincial archives for some @mponents,
such as precipitation, evaporation, snow
pack, and lake levels but archiving is less
complete lor others such as river flow, soil
moisture and ground-water. Water quality
informalion is vital but fragmented and un-
collated. Once all data become readily ac-
cessible, the resuhing census will show
where data and information are missing and
research is required to close important
knowledge gaps. Such a data bank would
illuminate the total water budget situation for
various regions of the country and could be
used to test hydrologic models as they are
developed.
Water quality data, too, would form a
natural part of the package. A total-ecosys-
tem approach could be used to analyze
scenarbs for water diversion schemes using
this data bank. An overall operating strategy
would have to be developed forthe bank and
decisions made as to specilic objedives,
operations, standards, data to be collected
and stored, the use of synthesized data, etc.
A prime objective would be to provide a
Revue canadienne des ressources hydriques
80
sound planning basis for drought, recogniz-
ing its ubiquitous nature and the diversity ol
remedial measures. Apart lrom meeting the
needs for water supply and related studies,
the proposed data bank wouH facilitate
Global Change and similar research. The
merhs and feasibility of this undertaking war-
rant study.
The need is for truly integrated research
programs on a wide, regional basis. No
bnger can we afford to deal nanowly with
components such as groundwater, infiltra-
tion or evapotranspiration without consider-
ing soil moistur€, water quality and other
aspects of thE interchange and balance.
One goal, in particular, must be to search for
predictability within the hydrologic cycle,
both in segmsnts as well as in total.
Such endeavors will lead naturally to the
more specific problem of drought research -
a subset of hydrologic research with
linkages to engineering, e@nomics and
other disciplines. ldeally, drought research
should be placed in a hydrologic context. lt
is essential to avokj the rise and fall of inter-
est and lunding that paralleldrought concern
flucluations. Only a well-planned and well-
funded ongoing research program is likely to
produce usable resuhs.
ldentltled Research Needs,
Princlples and Dlrec-tlons
The preceding review establishes the need
for drought research on a broad front. In
pafiicular:
1) future drought ressarch should be
holistic in its approach, directed primarily
toward the prediction of the onset, duration
and termination of drought and of its major
socio-economic and environmental @nse-
quences, and developed in an integrated
manner that enables it to serue local to
global-scale research needs.
2) emphasis should be placed on long-
term prediction of precipitation as lhe prime
forcing function, and on the merging of
hydrobgical and climate prediction models.
3) better definition is needed of the
economic benefits of irrigation and ground-
water in the alleviation of drought, and of the
socio-economic conseq uences of sustained
and increasing drought on major water sys-
tems such as the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence
Sysiem.
4) the hydrological data base must be
improved and a lotal water data base
Vol. 14, No.3, 1989
developed. In particular more data is needed
to identify the util'rty of ground water resource
(availability, reliability, and quality), to eslab-
lish the influence of drought on water
resource quality and quantity in less-settled
reg'nns that will be undergoing develop-
ment, and to mest the needs of predictive
models now under development.
5)the positive and negative environmen-
tal effects of water construct'ron projects
must be continually evaluated and com-
pared with predidions, with aviewto improv-
ing future environmental impact assess-
m€nts.
6) land and other resource-management
practices must be developed (or
mechanisms found for their more etfective
implementation) to reduce the loss in the
productive capacity of soils due to drought,
and to mitigate losses to lorest fire.
7) techniques must be developed to
maximize the etficiency of existing municipal
watsr use, manage water demand, improve
quality of municipal waste waters, and en-
surE continued 'faif allocation of water
resources during periods of water shortfall.
8) a mechanism must be developed and
implemented to coordinate the integration of
water and water-related research on local-
to-global scales.
9) communication must be greahy improved
on the importance of research results to the
polby and decision-making community and
on their needs to the ressarch communily.
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