UNIVERSITI TEKNOLOGI MARA

KAMPUS KOTA SAMARAHAN, SARAWAK

COURSE : STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY

COURSE CODE : STA108
SEMESTER : SEPTEMBER – DECEMBER 2018
GROUP : AS115 5B

PROJECT TITLE

Application of probability concepts and rules in related experiment:

There are a total of 50 workers and 2 workers are colour-blind. A researcher chooses
four workers at random and counts the number of workers who are colour-blind.

GROUP MEMBERS
NO NAME STUDENT ID SIGN
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 TABLE OF CONTENT

CONTENT PAGE
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of study 3
1.2 Objectives of study 4
2. METHODOLODY
2.1 Suggestion of Probability 5–6
Concepts and Rules
3. RESULTS
3.1 Related Answer Based On the
Methodology Used 7–9
3.2 Justification (if any)
4. CONCLUSION
4.1 Summary 10
1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND OF EXPERIMENT

In probability theory, a tree diagram or also known as tree analysis or systematic

diagram is made possible to be used to represent a probability space. It represents a series
of independent evens such as a set of coin flips or conditional probabilities such as drawing
cards from a deck. An illustration of tree diagram is shown below.

Figure 1: Tree Diagram

Each node on the diagram represents an event and is related with the probability of
that event occurring. The root node or known as the first certain event, has a probability of 1.
Set of sibling nodes that occur afterwards represents and exclusive and exhaustive partition
of the parent event or the root node. The nodes on the diagram explains the probability
associated with the nodes or chance of one event occurring after the parent event occurs.
This leads to a chain or series of events leading to a node will occur is always and must be
equal to the product of a certain node and the probability of the parent node. Like other ways
of representing a probability space, the probability must not exceed 1 or the original
probability.

In short, a tree diagram starts with one item that branches into two or more, in which
the branches break into two or more and it continues, hence the name, tree diagram. It is
very common and practical way to break down broad categories into finer levels of detail
from generally to specifically.
1.2 OBJECTIVES

The following statements are the objective of this study:

1. To understand better on the concept of probability concepts and rules.

2. To apply the theories of probability into practice and daily life problems.
3. To construct a tree diagram based on problem statement given.
4. To explain the findings and results based on the tree diagram.
2.0 METHODOLOGY

The method used in this study is tree diagram based on the concept of probability.
Tree diagram is suitable for this study because it analyses problems in detail and to find a
root cause for a problem. In addition, tree diagram will assist in evaluating implementation
issues for several potential solutions. The problem statement is as follows:

 There are a total of 50 workers and 2 workers are colour-blind. A researcher chooses
four workers at random and counts the number of workers who are colour-blind.

We are tasked to count to number of workers who are colour-blind based on the tree
diagram constructed. The steps used to construct the probability tree are:

1. The first circumstance in the sequence is determined and one branch of each
event from the same point is created. Here, the associated probability is written
on the branch.
2. The next random circumstance is determined and branches to each of the
branches in step 1 is drawn and the associated conditional probabilities are
written on the branches.
3. The process is continued for as many steps as necessary.
2.1.0 PROBLEM STATEMENT

There are a total of 50 workers and 2 workers are colour-blind. A researcher chooses four
workers at random and counts the number of workers who are colour-blind.

From the statement above, we conducted the probability trees for solving the probability
problem.

2.1.1 PROBABILITY TREE: TREE DIAGRAM

C: Colour-blind

C’: Not colour-blind Outcomes

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Figure 2: Tree Diagram of the experiment

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 3.0 RESULTS

3.1.0 CALCULATION

X=x 0 1 2 3 4
f(x)=
P(X=x) 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 2 48 48 2 2 48 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 ×( × × × 4 ×() × × ×6 ×() × × × 4 ×() × × ×1 ×() × × × )
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

P(X=x) 0.84934656 0.14155776 8.84736×10-3 2.4576×10-4 2.56×10-6

Based from the table above:

 The probability to get zero colour-blind worker out of four workers is 0.84934656.
 The probability to get one colour-blind worker out of four workers is 0.14155776.
 The probability to get two colour-blind workers out of four workers is 8.84736×10-3.
 The probability to get three colour-blind workers out of four workers is 2.4576×10-4.
 The probability to get four colour-blind workers out of four workers is 2.56×10-6.
 The type is this problem is discrete random variable for discrete probability
distribution. This is because discrete random variables can only take exact values. In most
practical problem, discrete random variable represent count data. Discrete probability
distribution is a table which list all possible values of a discrete random variable with their
corresponding probabilities and the data from this experiment are presented in a table.

 Finding probability P(X=3)

P(X=3) = 8.84736×10-3

 Finding probability P(X≤1)

P(X=0) + P(X=1) = 0.84934656 + 0.14155776 = 0.99090432

 Finding cumulative distribution function F(X)

X=x 0 1 2 3 4
f(x)=
P(X=x) 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 2 48 48 2 2 48 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1 ×( × × × 4 ×() × × ×6 ×() × × × 4 ×() × × ×1 ×() × × × )
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50

P(X=X) 0.84934656 0.14155776 8.84736×10-3 2.4576×10-4 2.56×10-6

F(X) 0.84934656 0.99090432 0.99975168 0.99999744 1

0.84934656, x < 0

0.99090432, 0 ≤ x < 1

F(X) 0.99975168, 1 ≤ x < 2

0.99999744, 2 ≤ x < 3

1, x ≥ 4

 Finding F(-3)

F(-3) = 0

 Finding F(2.6)

F(2.6) = 0.99999744
 Finding mean, E(x) = ∑xP(X=x)

E(X) = (0×0.84934656) + (1×0.14155776) + (2×8.84736×10-3) + (3×2.4576×10-4) + (4×

2.56×10-6) = 0.16

 Finding E(X2) = ∑x2P(X=x)

E(X2) = (02×0.84934656) + (12×0.14155776) + (22×8.84736×10-3) + (32×2.4576×10-4) +

(42×2.56×10-6) = 0.1792

 Finding variance, Var(X) = E(X2) – [E(X)]2

Var(X) = 0.1792 – (0.1600)2 = 0.1536

 Solve E(2x2 + 3)

E(2x2 – 3) = 2[E(X)] + E(3)

= 2(0.16) + 3

= 3.32

 Solve Var(3x – 5)
Var(3x – 5) = 32 Var(X) – Var(5)

= 9(0.1536) – 0

= 1.3824
4.0 CONCLUSION

To conclude, the concept of probability concepts and rules are able to be understand
further by conducting this experiment and theories of probability can be applied into practice
and daily life problems, such as based on this experiment and on the calculations that have
been done, the mean of workers who are colour-blind is 0.16 and the variance of workers
who are colour-blind is 0.1536. The probability to get zero, one, two, three and four colour-
blind workers out of four workers is 0.84934656, 0.14155776, 8.84736×10-3, 4576×10-4 and
2.56×10-6 respectively, hence it is proven that the outcomes of the workers, either he is a
colour-blind or not can be determined statistically by using probability.