30.03.2020 Track ng the Unprecedented Impact of COVID-19 on U.S.

CPG Shopp ng Behav or – N elsen

ARTICLE

TRACKING THE UNPRECEDENTED IMPACT OF

COVID-19 ON U.S. CPG SHOPPING BEHAVIOR
CPG, FMCG & RETAIL 03-30-2020

As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to disrupt industries and businesses around the
world, the consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry is operating in uncharted territory. Amid
widespread health concerns, federal travel restrictions and local movement limitations, the
industry is facing the greatest, and fastest change in shopping behavior ever.

With improvements in technology, infrastructure and experience, coupled with a reduction in

barriers to trial, such as delivery length or shipping costs, buyer adoption of online CPG shopping
has consistently increased over the last two years. Yet while those factors have resulted in
pervasive consumer behavior changes, COVID-19 has caused another step change in the way
consumers shop.

TOTAL U.S. CPG SALES INCREASED $8.5 BILLION DURING THE TWO WEEKS ENDED
MARCH 21, 2020

For the two weeks ended March 21, 2020, total U.S. CPG sales (in-store and online) increased $8.5
billion from the two weeks prior. For context, that’s 15x the average rate of change for a typical
two-week period.  That said, this purchase behavior aligns with what we would expect from
consumers in restricted living situations.

Yet as the weeks pass by, not all departments and categories are seeing the same consistent sales
spikes. With restaurants and bars across the country shuttered for the imminent future, it’s not
surprising that consumers are spending more  on food at grocery stores as families eat more
meals at home. In categories that have experienced week-over-week sales declines, such as the
coveted toilet paper (down 29%), it’s unclear how much out-of-stocks contributed to the sales
decline, vs. how much resulted from a one-time surge that has paci ed the immediate short-term
need.  In total, week-over-week growth of consumable products in-store increased 21%, while sales
of non-consumable products decreased 2%. 

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30.03.2020 Track ng the Unprecedented Impact of COVID-19 on U.S. CPG Shopp ng Behav or – N elsen
What’s surprising is that the exact opposite trend occurred online: Sales of consumable products
declined week-over-week and sales of non-consumable increased. With reports of signi cant
delays in delivery availability and consumer accounts of canceled orders due to too many out of
stock items, the reality is that online ful llment was unprepared for the massive surge in demand.  

In fact, a recent Nielsen survey found that by the time concerns about the spread of COVID-19
reached critical mass in mid-March, approximately one-quarter of shoppers said they expected to
shop online more frequently—or for the rst time—in order to avoid germs in public places.
Furthermore, we expect the rate of interest in shopping online to continue . In the two weeks
ended March 21, upwards of 35% more people had shopped online for CPG items compared with
a typical week. While grocery was a leading driver the week ended March 14, non-consumable
items have carried the mantle the following week.  

This means the industry is now at a critical juncture. If historical behaviors hold true, the growth of
online shoppers will sustain after they make their initial purchases. For that to happen, however,
retailers will need to ensure positive customer experiences, including proper management of out-
of-stocks and delivery delays.

Historical behaviors aside, the reality today is that so much of the situation remains unknown. The
outcome will depend on how long the situation lasts and what economic rami cations it causes.
It’s a “new normal” for everyone, which means things will remain unsettled for the immediate
future. For example, forecasting sales and shipment allocations three months from now may be
just as challenging as planning for the next two weeks. That means manufacturers and retailers
need to leverage available assets and resources to make the most up-to-date and informed
decisions while adjusting appropriately as the situation unfolds. And while the online growth is
astounding, point-of-purchase is relative, based on the category, and understanding behaviors in
the total marketplace—both online and o ine—is critical.

For more information, visit our COVID-19 resource site or click for more information about the new
solutions available to assist with addressing the changing consumer behavior patterns, demand
planning, navigating supply chain disruptions, and global consumer sentiment and behavior during
the pandemic.

Tagged: COVID-19 | E-COMMERCE | NORTH AMERICA | ONLINE | SHOPPER

https://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/article/2020/tracking-the-unprecedented-impact-of-covid-
19-on-u-s-cpg-shopping-behavior/

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