COH 315: Epidemiology

Midterm Exam

MAXIMUM 75 points

Calculations: Answer the following questions in the space provided. Show all of your work.

(5 points each)

1. Calculate the attack rate for those who ate potato salad using the data in Table 1.

Table 1. Food-specific attack rates for items consumed

ATE DIDN’T EAT

Item consumed Sick Well Sick Well

Potato salad 80 10 90 30

Potato chips 70 25 35 70

Attack rate= 80/90= 0.889

2. Calculate the incidence rate of SARS in Shanghai in 2004 using the data in Table 2.

Table 2. SARS cases in Shanghai China

Year confirmed cases population at risk

2004 137 16, 740,000

2005 115 17, 560,000

Incidence rate: 137/16,740,000 x 1,000= 0.0082

3. Calculate the prevalence rate of hypertension in the US in 2000 using the data in Table 3.

Table 3. People with Hypertension in the United States

Year new cases existing cases population

 1999 400,000 60,000,000 275,000,000

2000 375,000 65,000,000 300,000,000

Prevalence rate: (375,000 + 65,000,000)/300,000,000 = 0.21792 x 100= 21.8

4. Calculate the annual death rate from all causes for Tanzania in 2005 using the data in Table 4.

Table 4. Deaths in Tanzania (population 40,000,000)

Year malaria HIV/AIDS heart disease diarrhea all other causes

2005 8,000 4,000 1,000 10,000 5,000

(8,000+4,000+1,000+10,000+5,000)/40,000,000x 100,000= 70 deaths

5. Calculate the specific death rate due to malaria in Tanzania in 2005 using the data in Table 4.
8,000/40,000,000 x 1,000= 0.2

6. Calculate the proportionate mortality rate due to HIV/AIDS in Tanzania in 2005 using the data in
Table 4.

4,000/28,000 x 100= 14

7. Calculate the case fatality rate for prostate cancer for the year 2008 using the data in Table 5.

Table 5. Prostate Cancer

New diagnoses 2007-2008 alive 1 year after diagnosis alive 5 years after diagnosis

6,500 6,450 6,200

(6,500-6,450)/6,500 = 0.008

8. Calculate the standard population and age-adjusted rate of osteoporosis in 0-50 age
population of Tuscany.

Table 6. Osteoporosis in Tuscany and Naples

Age Tuscany pop. Tuscany osteo cases Naples Pop. Naples osteo cases

0-50 500,000 4,000 300,000 3,000

50+ 400,000 20,000 800,000 20,000

rate=(4000/500000) x 100000 = 800

std population=500,000 + 300,000= 800,000

age distribution weight= 500,000/900,000= 0.556

all ages population of tuscany=900,000
age adjusted rate=800 * 0.556 = 444.8
a case popula rat std age age
g s tion e populati distributi -adjusted
e on on rate
weight

0- 4000 500,00 80 800,000 0.555555 444.8

5 0 0 56
0

5 20,00 400,00 50 12,00,00 0.444444 222.22222

0 0 0 0 0 44 2

age adjusted rate of Tuscany under 0-50 yrs =444.8

standared population=8,00,000

9. Calculate the sensitivity of the screening test for alcoholism using the data in Table 7.

Table 7. Alcohol Screening Test

Results of the Screening Alcoholic non-alcoholic

Positive 160 320

Negative 40 480

Sensitivity: True Positives / (True Positives + False Negatives) 160 / (160+40) =0.8

10. Calculate the specificity of the screening test for alcoholism using the data in Table 7.
 (480) / (480 + 320) = 480 / 800 = 0.6

11. Calculate the percentage of false negatives of the screening test for alcoholism using
the data in Table 7.

40/ (40+160) =40/200 =0.2

12. Calculate the percentage of false positives of the screening test for alcoholism using the
data in Table 7.

(320) / (480 + 320) = 320 / 800 = 0.4

13. Calculate the positive predictive value of the screening test for alcoholism using the
data in Table 7.

(160) / (160 + 320) = 160/480 = 0.3333

14. Calculate the probability of surviving 5 years using the data from Table 8.

Table 8. Probability of Survival for Each Year of the Study

15. P1 = 52.5%

16. P2= 46.1%

17. P3 = 65.5%

18. P4= 69.6%

19. P5 = 80.0%

20. P6 = 95%

21. P7 = 98%

22. Prob Probaliti Survival probailities Survival

Year es Percent
s

P1 0.525 0.525 0.525      

52.50%
P2 0.461 0.461 =.525*.461      
24.20%

P3 0.655 0.655 =.525*.461*.655      

15.85%

P4 0.696 0.696 =.525*.461*.625*.696      

11.03%

P5 0.8 0.8 =.525*.461*.625*.696*.      

8 08.83%

P6 0.95 0.95 =.525*.461*.625*.696*.      

8*.95 08.38%

P7 0.98 0.98 =.525*.46*.625*.696*.8      

*.95*.98 08.22%
Hence probability of surviving 5 years is 8.83%

23. Calculate the power of a study given that the probability of a type I error is 0.05 and the
probability of type II error is 0.80. power = 1- P(type 2 error) = 1 - 0.8 = 0.2