Dependability: Definition

Dependability is the property of a system to be

dependable in time, i.e. such that reliance can
justifiably be placed on the service it delivers.

Dependability extends the interest on the system

from the design and construction phase to the
operational phase (life cycle).

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 Dependability: Taxonomy

reliability
availability
measures maintainability
safety
security

fault forecasting
dependability means fault tolerance
fault removal
fault prevention

faults
threats errors
failures

2
 Quantitative analysis
The quantitative analysis aims at numerically
evaluating measures to characterize the dependability
of an item:

Ø  Risk assessment and safety

Ø  Design specifications
Ø  Technical assistance and maintenance
Ø  Life cycle cost
Ø  Market competition

3
 Design specifications
Technological items must be dependable.

Some times, dependability requirements (both

qualitative and quantitative) are part of the design
specifications:
Ø Mean time between failures
Ø Total down time

4
Technical assistance and maintenance
The planning of all the activity related to the technical
assistance and maintenance is linked to the system
dependability (expected number of failure in time).

Ø  planning spare parts and maintenance crews;

Ø  cost of the technical assistance (warranty period);
Ø  preventive vs reactive maintenance.

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Life Cycle Cost

6
 Market competition

The choice of the consumers is strongly influenced by

the perceived dependability.

q  advertisement messages stress the dependability;

q  the image of a product or of a brand may depend on

the dependability.

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 Purpose of evalua-on
•  Understanding a system
–  Observation
–  Operational environment
–  Reasoning

Predicting the behavior of a system

–  Need a model
–  A model is a convenient abstraction
–  Accuracy based on degree of extrapolation
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 Methods of evalua-on
• Measurement-Based
v  Most believable, most expensive
v  Not always possible or cost effective during
system design

Model-Based
ü  Less believable, Less expensive
ü  Analytic vs Discrete-Event Simulation
ü  Combinatorial vs State-Space Methods

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 Measurement-Based
Most believable, most expensive;
Data are obtained observing the behavior of physical
objects.

v  field observations;
v  measurements on prototypes;
v  measurements on components (accelerated tests).

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 Methods of evalua-on
• Measurements + Models data bank

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 The probabilistic approach
The mechanisms that lead to failure a technological
object are very complex and depend on many physical,
chemical, technical, human, environmental … factors.

The time to failure cannot be expressed by a determin-

istic law.

We are forced to assume the time to failure as a

random variable.
The quantitative dependability analysis is based on a
probabilistic approach.

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 Reliability

The reliability is a measurable attribute of the

dependability and it is defined as:

The reliability R(t) of an item at time t is the

probability that the item performs the required
function in the interval (0 – t) given the stress and
environmental conditions in which it operates.

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 Basic Defini-ons: cdf
• Let X be the random variable represen-ng the -me
to failure of an item.

The cumulative distribution function (cdf) F(t) of the

r.v. X is given by:

F(t) = Pr { X ≤ t }
F(t) represents the probability that the item is
already failed at time t (unreliability) .

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 Basic Defini-ons: cdf

• Equivalent terminoloy for F(t) :

Ø  CDF (cumula-ve distribu-on func-on)

Ø  Probability distribu-on func-on

Ø  Distribu-on func-on

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 Basic Defini-ons: cdf
F(t)
1
F(b)

F(a)

0 a b t
F(0) = 0
lim F(t) = 1
tà∞
F(t) = non-decreasing
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 Basic Defini-ons: Reliability
• Let X be the random variable represen-ng the -me
to failure of an item.

The survivor function (sf) R(t) of the r.v. X is given

by:

R (t) = Pr { X > t } = 1 - F(t)

R(t) represents the probability that the item is

correctly working at time t and gives the reliability
function .

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 Basic Defini-ons

• Equivalent terminology for R(t) = 1 - F(t) :

Ø  Reliability

Ø  Complementary distribu-on func-on

Ø  Survivor func-on

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 Basic Defini-ons: Reliability
R(t)
1

R(a)

0 a b t
R(0) = 1
lim R(t) = 0
tà∞
R(t) = non-increasing
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 Basic Defini-ons: density
• Let X be the random variable represen-ng the -me
to failure of an item and let F(t) be a derivable cdf:

The density function f(t) is defined as:

d F(t)
f (t) = ———
dt
f (t) dt = Pr { t ≤ X < t + dt }

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 Basic Defini-ons: Density
f (t)

0
a b t
b
∫ f(x) dx = Pr { a < X ≤ b } = F(b) – F(a)
a
t ∞
∫ f(x) dx = F(t) R(t)=1- F(t)=∫ f(x) dx
0 t 21
Basic Defini-ons: DensityàExpected Life
f (t)
1

0
t
∞ ∞
MTTF = E [t ] = ∫ 0
tf (t )dt = ∫ 0
R (t ) dt
Integration by parts àsee demonstration 22
01/11/16 23
 Basic Defini-ons

• Equivalent terminology: pdf

Ø  probability density func-on

Ø  density func-on
t
F (t ) = ∫ f ( x)dx
Ø  density dF −∞
t
dt = ∫ f ( x)dx ,
Ø  f(t) = 0

For a non-negative
random variable
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 Hazard (failure) rate
f (t ) f (t )
h (t ) = =
R(t ) 1 − F (t )

•  h(t) Δt = Conditional Prob. system will fail in

(t, t + Δt) given that it is survived until time t

•  f(t) Δt = Unconditional Prob. System will fail in

(t, t + Δt)

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The Failure Rate of a Distribu-on
()
• h t Δ t is the conditional probability that the unit
will fail in the interval ( t , t + Δ t ) given that it is
functioning at time t.

• f (t ) Δ t is the unconditional probability that the unit

will fail in the interval ( t , t + Δ t )

•  Difference between the two sentences:

– probability that someone will die between 90 and 91, given that he
lives to 90
– probability that someone will die between 90 and 91

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h(t) Bathtub curve

(infant mortality – burn in) (wear-out-phase)

CFR
Constant fail. rate
(useful life)

DFR IFR

Decreasing failure rate Increasing fail. rate

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 Infant mortality (dfr)
Also called infant mortality phase or reliability
growth phase. The failure rate decreases with time.

⇒  Caused by undetected hardware/software defects;

⇒  Can cause significant prediction errors if steady-
state failure rates are used;
⇒ Weibull Model can be used;

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 Useful life (cfr)
The failure rate remains constant in time (age
independent) .

Ø  Failure rate much lower than in early-life period.

Ø  Failure caused by random effects (as

environmental shocks).

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 Wear-out phase (ifr)
The failure rate increases with age.

It is characteristic of irreversible aging phenomena

(deterioration, wear-out, fatigue, corrosion etc…)

Applicable for mechanical and other systems.

(Properly qualified electronic parts do not exhibit

wear-out failure during its intended service life)

Weibull Failure Model can be used

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 Exponen-al Distribu-on
Failure rate is age-independent (constant).

•  Cumul. distribution function:F (t ) = 1 − e −λ t t≥0

•  Reliability : R(t ) = e−λt t≥0

•  Density Function : f (t ) = λ e −λ t t≥0

f (t )
•  Failure Rate (CFR): h(t ) = =λ
R(t )
•  Mean Time to Failure: 1
MTTF =
λ
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 The Cumula-ve Distribu-on Func-on
of an Exponen-ally Distributed Random Variable With
Parameter λ = 1

F(t)
1.0

0.5
F(t) = 1 - e - λ t

0 1.25 2.50 3.75 5.00

t

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 The Reliability Func-on of an Exponen-ally
Distributed Random Variable With Parameter λ = 1

R(t)
1.0

R(t) = e - λ t
0.5

0 1.25 2.50 3.75 5.00

t

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Exponen-al Density Func-on (pdf)
f(t)

MTTF = 1/ λ

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 Memoryless Property of the
Exponen-al Distribu-on
• Assume X > t. We have observed that the
component has not failed until time t
• Let Y = X - t , the remaining (residual) lifetime

Gt ( y ) = P (Y ≤ y | X > t )
= P( X ≤ y + t | X > t )
P (t < X ≤ y + t )
= = 1 − e − λy
P( X > t )
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 Memoryless Property of the
Exponen-al Distribu-on (cont.)

§  Thus Gt(y) is independent of t and is identical to

the original exponential distribution of X
§  The distribution of the remaining life does not
depend on how long the component has been
operating
§  An observed failure is the result of some suddenly
appearing failure, not due to gradual deterioration

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 Quiz 3:
If two components (say, A and B) have independent iden-cal

exponen-ally distributed -mes to failure, by the “memoryless”

property, which of the following is true?

•  1. They will always fail at the same time

•  2. They have the same probability of failing at time
‘t’ during operation
•  3. When these two components are operating
simultaneously, the component which has been
operational for a shorter duration of time will
survive longer

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 Weibull Distribu-on
− λ tα
•  Distribu-on Func-on: F (t ) = 1 − e t≥0

•  Density Func-on: α −1 − λ t α
f (t ) = λα t e t≥0

•  Reliability: −λ tα
R(t ) = e t≥0

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 Weibull Distribu-on
α : shape parameter;
λ : scale parameter.
f (t ) α −1
Failure Rate: h(t ) = = λα t t≥0
R (t )

α <1 Dfr
α =1 Cfr
α >1 Ifr
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Failure Rate of the Weibull Distribu-on with Various
Values of α

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 Weibull Distribu-on for Various
Values of α

Cdf density
Consider a component represented by a Weibull distribution with
shape parameter, α=4 and scale parameter, λ=1000. Calculate its
reliability at an operating time of 1500 h. 41
 Failure Rate Models (cont.)
• There are several ways to incorporate time dependent
failure rates in availability models
• The easiest way is to approximate a continuous function
by a piecewise constant step function
7 Discrete Failure-Rate Model
Failure-Rate Multiplier

6 λ1
5
λ2 λ SS
4

0 2,190 4,380 6,570 8,760 10,950 13,140 15,330 17,520

3
Operating Times (hrs)
42
2
 Failure Rate Models (cont.)

• Here the discrete failure-rate model is

defined by:
λW ( t ) = λ 1 0 ≤ t < 4,380
= λ2 4,380 ≤ t < 8,760
= λ ss t ≥ 8,760

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 A life-me experiment
X1
1
X2
2
X3
3
X4
4

XN
N
t=0

N i.i.d components are put in a life test experiment.

IID = Independent & Identically Distributed 44
A life-me experiment
1 X1
2 X2
3 X3
4 X4

N XN

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Interpre-ng reliability tests
CUMULATIVE TIME
The real MTBF will be obtained only when all the components will
be failed
Time truncated tests
Failure truncated Time truncated
n=6 n=8
α=0,9 è χ2=2,20èMTBF=90909h α=0,9 è χ2=3,49èMTBF=57306h
α=0,1 è χ2=10,6èMTBF=18868h α=0,1 è χ2=13,4èMTBF=14925h
54
 Exercise 1

3.  Compare the point value obtained for the (a) case and assign it a confidence level.

4.  Calculate the limit MTBFs in case the 90%confidence level should be double-sided.
Weibull chart

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58
Exercise 3