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• Enterprise risk management (ERM) • Uses a single factor to define risk and scales that risk
according to an asset’s beta (relative systematic risk).
• Used to identify and manage risks across the entire firm.
• Four components of an ERM program: (1) define a risk policy
• Calculating CAPM required return and beta (learn formulae).
for the firm; (2) estimate the risks faced by the company; (3) • Assumes that investors only need to know the expected
decide if risks should be avoided/transferred/hedged/left returns, variances and covariances of returns to determine
unhedged; and (4) monitor the risk profile and performance. optimal portfolios.
• Creating value with risk management • Investor can use leverage to increase their exposure to the
market portfolio.
• The way to determine the optimal level of risk is to start with
the firm’s risk appetite. • Security Market Line (SML): expected return vs beta.
• The credit rating that maximizes a bank’s value will depend on • Capital Market Line (CML): expected return vs standard
the nature of the bank’s business lines. deviation.
• Risk managers can destroy value by not making sure that the • Risk-adjusted performance measurement
bank has the right amount of risk for the type of business and
capital structure the bank has. • Calculating all the risk-adjusted performance measures
below (learn formulae).
• Banks need to use compensation incentives and promote
• Sharpe ratio measures excess return per unit of total risk (for
a culture in which risk management is a partner in creating
undiversified portfolios).
value.
• Financial disasters and risk management failures • Treynor ratio measures excess return per unit of beta
(systematic risk).
• System error/erroneous reporting (Chase Manhattan/
• Jensen’s alpha measures the difference between the
Drysdale, Kidder Peabody).
portfolio’s actual return and its required return using the
• Rogue trader (Barings, Allied Irish Bank, SocGen). CAPM.
• Poor oversight (UBS). • Treynor ratio and Jensen’s alpha should be used to evaluate
diversified portfolios.
• Large market moves/liquidity risk (LTCM).
• Basis risk (Metallgesellschaft).
• Information ratio measures active return per unit of tracking
risk.
• Unclear explanation of risks faced by the customer (Bankers
• Sortino ratio measures excess return (over a minimum
Trust).
accepted return) per unit of downside risk.
• Counterparties to fraudulent Enron trades (JPMorgan,
• Multi-factor models
Citibank).
• Banking industry trends leading up to the liquidity squeeze
• APT extends the CAPM to multiple risk factors and relaxes
some of the strict assumptions of the CAPM.
included the originate-to-distribute model (securitization)
and financing with short-term commercial paper. • Fama-French model utilizes the following risk factors: (1)
equity risk premium (RMRF); (2) small-cap return premium
• “Loss spiral” worsens because (1) the absence of liquidity
(SMB); and (3) value return premium (HML). The smaller the
is often an indicator of increased future volatility, and (2)
company and/or the higher the ratio of book-to-market, the
asymmetry of information between asset buyers and sellers.
greater the required return.
• Central bank liquidity support was helpful both to the real
• Calculating required return using the Fama-French model
economy and to Wall Street throughout the financial crisis
(learn formula).
(pre-Lehman collapse to June 2009) but over the later stages
of the crisis, direct capital injections were the most effective in • Information risk and data quality management
their short-term impact.
• Consistent risk data aggregation, especially in periods of
• Risk management failures may be linked to the (1) crisis, is extremely important at the trading desk level and at
measurement of known risks; (2) identification of risk the enterprise level.
exposures; (3) communication of risk; and (4) monitoring of
risk. • Key principles related to a strong risk data aggregation
capability: (1) accuracy and integrity; (2) completeness; (3)
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT SECTION WITHIN timeliness; and (4) adaptability.
FOUNDATIONS OF RISK MANAGEMENT • Key principles related to effective risk reporting practices: (1)
In this section, we move into a more quantitative treatment of accuracy; (2) comprehensiveness; (3) clarity; (4) frequency
of reports should reflect the needs of recipients; and (5)
risk management by looking at the return of an asset relative
distribution to relevant parties.
to risk (expressed as standard deviation) and the theoretical
bounds we place around the pricing of risky assets. The key • Ethics and the GARP Code of Conduct
areas for your exam are listed below. • Make sure that you cover this reading thoroughly as ethical
• Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) conduct is a hot topic in financial markets.
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• Rules of conduct can be summarized as follows: (1) exercise • Statistical inference and hypothesis testing
reasonable judgment in the provision of risk services and act
with honesty and integrity at all times; (2) disclose actual or • Calculating the confidence interval for a population mean
(learn the formula and remember that this is always a two-
potential conflicts of interest; (3) avoid using confidentiality
tailed scenario).
information inappropriately; (4) comply with all applicable
laws and avoid misrepresentation; and (5) apply generally • Procedure for performing a hypothesis test: (1) state the
accepted risk management practices. null and alternative hypothesis (one-tailed or two-tailed);
(2) calculate the test statistic; (3) identify the critical value
• Local law takes precedence over the Code.
based on the significance level and number of observations;
• GARP can choose to temporarily suspend or permanently and (4) make the statistical decision. This procedure can be
remove the right to use the FRM designation if a violation of used for all hypothesis tests in your exam and enables you to
the Code has occurred. determine whether the null hypothesis should be rejected or
not.
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
(EXAM WEIGHT 20%, 16 TOTAL READINGS) • When backtesting VaR, the distribution of exceedances follows
a binomial distribution. The probability of seeing a specified
Quantitative Analysis may seem intimidating but question number of exceedances over a specified number of days is
calculated using the standard binomial distribution formula.
practice will help you to master this topic! FRM candidates
should be prepared to use calculations in otherwise what might • Linear regression with one regressor
be an “explain” or “apply” learning objective. Understand the
relationships between the concepts because sometimes you can
• Assumptions about the regression error: (1) expected value of
zero; (2) homoskedastic; (3) uncorrelated across observations;
easily eliminate clearly incorrect answer options, e.g. hypothesis and (4) normally distributed.
testing pops up in multiple regression. The key concepts and
formulae to master for your exam are listed below. • Calculating the standard error of the regression (SER) and
coefficient of determination (R2) – learn the formulae.
• Population and sample statistics
• Calculating the confidence intervals for regression
• Conditional vs unconditional probabilities. coefficients (same approach as when calculating a confidence
interval for a population mean).
• Calculating the mean, standard deviation and variance of a
discrete random variable (learn formulae). • When performing a hypothesis test on a regression coefficient,
reject the null hypothesis that the regression coefficient is
• Calculating covariance and correlation between two random
equal to 0 when the p-value is less than the significance level.
variables (learn formulae).
• Calculating the expected return and variance of a two-asset
• If regression error is heteroskedastic, then confidence
intervals and hypothesis tests need to be based on
portfolio (learn formulae).
heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors, otherwise the
• Skewness vs kurtosis. t-statistic calculated will be incorrect.
• Negative values of skewness and coskewness tend to indicate • If the three least squares assumptions hold, the OLS
greater risk. estimators of slope and intercept: (1) are unbiased and
consistent; (2) have a sampling distribution with a variance
• Discrete and continuous probability distributions and estimating that is inversely proportional to the sample size; and (3) have
the parameters of distributions sampling distributions that are normal in large samples.
• Calculating the probability of observing a specified number
• If the three least squares assumptions hold and the regression
of successes for a specified number of Bernoulli trials using error is homoskedastic, then the OLS estimator is the Best
the binomial distribution (learn formula). Linear conditionally Unbiased Estimator (BLUE). This is the
• Using Normal distribution tables to calculate cumulative conclusion of the Gauss-Markov Theorem.
probabilities (needed for Black-Scholes-Merton option
pricing).
• Alternatives to the OLS estimator are: (1) weighted least
squares estimator (when the error is heteroskedastic) and (2)
• One-tailed and two-tailed z values for the Normal distribution least absolute deviations estimator (when large outliers are
(memorize the 90%, 95% and 99% values). significant).
• Familiarity with the lognormal distribution, chi-squared • Linear regression with multiple regressors
distribution, student’s t distribution (used in hypothesis
testing), central limit theorem and F-distribution.
• Standard error of the regression (SER) is dependent on
number of regressors.
• Bayesian analysis
• Formula for coefficient of determination (R2) is the same as
• Calculating a posterior probability using Bayes’ theorem that for regression with one regressor.
(learn the formula or construct a probability tree).
• Adjusted R2 can increase or decrease as the number of
• Bayesian analysis is preferred when there is very little data regressors increases but is always less than R2.
(although subjective assumptions about prior probabilities
may be required) whereas the frequentist approach is easier
• Multiple regression requires four least squares assumptions:
the same three as regression with one regressor, plus the
to use with lots of data. assumption that the regressors do not exhibit perfect
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multicollinearity (it is not possible to compute the OLS • Estimating correlation and volatility using EWMA and GARCH
estimator with perfect collinearity). models
• If the regressors exhibit imperfect collinearity, then the • Estimating probability using the power law as an alternative
coefficients of one or more of the individual regressors will be to the Normal distribution (learn formula).
estimated incorrectly.
• Calculating volatility using the EWMA model (learn formula to
• Calculating confidence intervals and performing hypothesis be on the safe side).
tests for a single regression coefficient (same approach as
used in regression with one regressor). • Calculating volatility using the GARCH(1,1) model (learn
both versions of the formula). Note that the EWMA model is a
• Null hypothesis for F-test is that the slope coefficients are specific case of GARCH(1,1).
jointly (simultaneously) equal to 0.
• A GARCH(1,1) model exhibits mean reversion to a long-run
• If regression error is heteroskedastic, the F-test needs to be average variance rate whereas the EWMA model does not
based on the heteroskedasticity-robust F-statistic. (expected future variance rate equals the current variance
rate).
• R2 and adjusted R2 indicate whether the regressors have
explanatory power. They do not tell you whether the • A GARCH model should remove autocorrelation in a series
regressors are a true cause of the movements in the (look for Ljung-Box Q-statistic in the low double digits).
dependent variable or whether you have chosen the most
appropriate set of regressors. • When current volatility is above/(below) long-term volatility,
GARCH(1,1) estimates a downward/(upward) sloping volatility
• Time series modelling and forecasting term structure.
• Model selection criteria: SIC penalizes degrees of freedom • Correlations and copulas
most heavily and is consistent; MSE, s2 and AIC are not. Select
model with lowest SIC. • Calculating covariance using the EWMA model (learn
formula).
• When modelling seasonality, we only need (s – 1) seasonal
• Calculating covariance using the GARCH(1,1) model (learn
dummies, where s is the number of seasons that we want to
formula).
differentiate between.
• To forecast a series, we need the series to be covariance • A copula allows us to define a correlation structure between
two marginal distributions which do not have well-defined
stationary (such a series will have autocorrelation and partial
characteristics (e.g. not normally distributed). Examples of
autocorrelation functions that approach 0).
copulas are Gaussian and student-t copulas.
• A time series process that is independently and identically
• Simulation methods
distributed as normal, with zero-mean and constant
variance is called Gaussian (or normal) white noise, and all • Methods of reducing Monte Carlo sampling error include
the autocorrelations and partial autocorrelations beyond antithetic variate technique, stratified sampling, low-
displacement 0 are equal to 0. discrepancy sequencing and control variates.
• Any covariance stationary series can be modelled with • Bootstrapping uses the distribution of actual data when
using some infinite distributed lag of white noise (Wold identifying simulation data but will not work well when (1)
representation). The Wold representation (which is an infinite there are outliers, and (2) data is non-independent.
order moving average process) can be approximated using a
rational distributed lag, producing a model of cycles that are • Disadvantages of simulation to financial problem solving
parsimonious, e.g. ARMA forecasting model. include (1) being computationally expensive; (2) imprecise
results; (3) results that are difficult to replicate; and (4) results
• The Ljung-Box Q test jointly tests if any of a group of are experiment specific.
autocorrelations of a time series are different from 0. The
Box-Pierce Q-statistic is a simplified version of the Ljung-Box FINANCIAL MARKETS AND PRODUCTS
Q-statistic. (EXAM WEIGHT 30%, 21 TOTAL READINGS)
• A MA(1) process is covariance stationary and expresses the The bulk of this topic area covers the mechanics and valuation
current value of the observed series as a function of current
and lagged unobservable shocks. All autocorrelations beyond
of forwards/futures, swaps and options and the application of
displacement 1 are 0. Partial autocorrelations will decay these financial derivatives in hedging and risk management.
gradually to 0. This is where your question practice should be concentrated.
Other areas covered include the regulation and risks of financial
• An AR(1) process is only covariance stationary if the absolute institutions, foreign exchange risk, corporate bonds and
value of lag coefficient is less than 1. The autocorrelations will
decay gradually to 0 while the partial autocorrelations beyond
mortgage-backed securities. The key concepts and formulae for
displacement 1 will be 0. your exam are listed below.
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• Mutual funds and hedge funds • Calculating the forward price for an investment asset
(stock, bond, stock index) with known income or yield (learn
• Mutual funds are heavily regulated whereas hedge funds face formulae with continuous compounding).
very little regulation.
• Calculating the value of a forward contract before maturity
• Many hedge fund strategies take both long and short (learn formula with continuous compounding).
positions.
• When the price of the underlying is positively correlated with
• Hedge fund performance may be affected by measurement interest rates, futures price > forward price. When the price
biases such as voluntary reporting and backfill bias. of the underlying is negatively correlated with interest rates,
futures price < forward price. Generally, we assume that
• Futures: mechanics and hedging
futures and forward prices are the same.
• Futures contracts are standardized, which provides less
• Calculating the price for a forward currency contract (learn
flexibility but more liquidity compared to forwards.
interest rate parity formula with continuous compounding).
• They are exchange traded with a clearinghouse acting as an
• Futures prices vs expected future spot prices: (1) Keynes
intermediary between longs and shorts.
predicted that futures price < expected future spot price
• Futures are marked to market daily and futures price if hedgers are net sellers of futures contracts; (2) If the
converges to the spot price of the underlying as futures underlying asset has positive/(negative) systematic risk, the
contract delivery approaches. futures price is lower/(higher) than the expected spot price.
• Normal vs inverted futures markets. • When the futures price is lower/(higher) than the expected
future spot price, this is known as normal backwardation/
• A company using a short/(long) hedge wants basis to (contango).
strengthen/(weaken).
• Basis risk tends to increase as the time difference between the
• Calculating the forward price for a commodity that is an
investment asset with lease rate or storage costs (learn
hedge expiration and the delivery month increases. formulae with continuous compounding).
• Calculating the minimum variance hedge ratio and the
• Calculating the forward price for a commodity that is a
optimal number of futures contracts for a cross hedge, consumption asset with storage costs and convenience yield
including tailing the hedge (learn formula). (learn formula with continuous compounding).
• Calculating the number of stock index futures contracts
• Shape of commodity forward curves: (1) Gold forward curve
required to hedge an equity portfolio and change the beta shows that the forward price increases with time to contract
of an equity portfolio (learn the formula). Remember that maturity; (2) Corn forward price typically rises due to storage
you would need to take a long/(short) position to increase/ costs between harvests, then falls at harvest; (3) Electricity
(decrease) the beta. price is set by demand and supply at a specific time; (4) Gas
• A stack and roll hedging strategy may lead to liquidity forward curve tends to rise during the fall (autumn) months
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due to storage just before peak demand; and (5) Oil forward • Using put-call parity for European options (learn formula).
curve is typically non-seasonal. This formula should also be used in conjunction with the
Black-Scholes-Merton formula for the value of a European call
• Analyzing a commodity spread. 5-3-2 crack spread is the
option to calculate the value of a European put option.
profit from taking 5 gallons of oil as input and refining it to
produce 3 gallons of gasoline and 2 gallons of heating oil. You • It is never optimal to exercise an American call option on a
would need to buy oil futures, sell gasoline futures and sell non-dividend-paying stock early, but it can be optimal to
heating oil futures in these proportions. Remember that there exercise an American put option on a non-dividend-paying
42 gallons in 1 oil barrel. stock early.
• Basis risk is a major consideration for commodities due to: • Covered call strategy (buying stock, writing call option on
(1) storage and transportation costs; (2) differences in asset stock) is used when there is a flat outlook for the stock’s price.
quality; and (3) hedging distant obligations with short-term
futures, e.g. using a stack and roll strategy (rolling is profitable • Protective put strategy (buying stock, buying put option on
stock) provides downside protection and unlimited upside
if futures prices are in backwardation).
potential.
• Interest rate futures
• Bull spread (buying one European call with a LOW strike,
• Calculating the duration-based hedge ratio when hedging a selling one European call with a HIGHER strike) is a bullish
bond portfolio with Treasury bond futures (learn formula). strategy with limited profit potential. Maximum loss is the net
premium paid. Maximum profit is the difference in the strike
• To hedge a long position in bonds, sell Treasury bond futures
prices minus the net premium paid. You should sketch out
and/or sell Eurodollar futures.
the P/L diagram starting from the maximum loss rather than
• Duration matching (portfolio immunization) immunizes a learning the formulae. Can also be constructed with European
portfolio against small parallel shifts of the yield curve but not puts in the same way.
against nonparallel shifts.
• Bear spread (buying one European put with a HIGH strike,
• Structure, mechanics, and valuation of swaps selling one European put with a LOWER strike) is a bearish
strategy with limited profit potential. Maximum loss is the net
• An interest rate swap can be viewed as the exchange of a premium paid. Maximum profit is the difference in the strike
fixed-rate bond for a floating-rate bond. prices minus the net premium paid. You should sketch out
• Calculating the value of an interest rate swap as the the P/L diagram starting from the maximum loss rather than
difference between two bond prices (the value of the swap learning the formulae. Can also be constructed with European
to the counterparty paying fixed is value of the floating rate calls in the same way.
bond less the value of the fixed rate bond). Remember that a
floating rate bond is valued at par at swap inception and at
• Box spread = Bull call spread + bear put spread with the same
strikes. Payoff is the difference between the strike prices and
each payment date. the value today is the present value of the payoff.
• Calculating the value of a fixed-for-fixed currency swap as the
• Butterfly spread (buying one European call with a LOW
difference between the values of two fixed rate bonds (make strike, buying one European call with a HIGH strike, and
sure that you can value an interest rate swap accurately first selling two European calls with a strike that is halfway
as the same principles can be applied to valuing a currency between the LOW and HIGH strikes) is used when there is
swap). a flat outlook for the stock’s price. Maximum loss is the net
• Credit risk on a currency swap is greater than on an interest premium paid. Maximum profit is the difference in the LOW
rate swap due to the exchange of principal at the end of a and INTERMEDIATE strike prices minus the net premium
currency swap’s life. paid. You should sketch out the P/L diagram starting from the
maximum loss rather than learning the formulae. Can also be
• Structure, mechanics, and valuation of options constructed with European puts in the same way.
• Factors affecting the price of European and American • Straddle (buying one European call and buying one European
options (looking at the impact of an increase in each factor put with the SAME strike) is a volatility strategy. Maximum loss
individually): is the total premium paid. Potential gains are unlimited.
Factor Call Put • Strip (buying one European call and buying two European
puts with the SAME strike) is a volatility strategy where the
Underlying asset price ↑ ↑ ↓ investor believes that the likelihood of a stock price decrease
is greater.
Interest rate ↑ ↑ ↓
• Strap (buying two European calls and buying one European
Strike price ↑ ↓ ↑ put with the SAME strike) is a volatility strategy where the
investor believes that the likelihood of a stock price increase
Dividends ↑ ↓ ↑ is greater.
Volatility ↑ ↑ ↑ • Strangle (buying one European call with a HIGH strike and
buying one European put with a LOW strike) is a volatility
Time to expiration ↑ ? (European) ? (European) strategy. Maximum loss is the total premium paid. Potential
gains are unlimited but a strangle requires more extreme
↑ (American) ↑ (American) stock price movements compared to a straddle before profits
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• The higher the bondholder’s seniority, the greater the • With mean reversion in return volatility, the square root rule
recovery rate. overstates/(understates) true long horizon volatility if current
volatility is above/(below) true long horizon volatility.
• Mortgage-backed securities
• Calculating conditional volatility with and without mean
• Agency loans vs non-agency loans (jumbo, Alt-A and reversion using the square root rule (learn formulae).
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• Calculating VaR for linear derivatives (learn formula). to the company from the warrant issue (learn formula).
• VaR for non-linear derivatives can be calculated using: (1) • Calculating the BSM price of a European call option when
delta-normal approach (usually linear/delta approximation there are dividends (learn formula).
but computationally inexpensive); and (2) full revaluation
approach (more accurate but computational intensive). • When using the BSM model, delta of a European call = N(d1);
delta of a European put = N(d1) – 1
• Structured Monte Carlo (SMC) facilitates (1) generation
• Delta of long call/(put) is positive/(negative).
of a large number of possible values for the underlying
when calculating the VaR for non-linear derivatives; and • A delta hedge requires rebalancing to maintain the delta
(2) generation of a large number of economically realistic neutral position. This provides protection against small stock
scenarios for stress testing that reflect the variance- price movements between hedge rebalancing.
covariance matrix of underlying risk factors of the portfolio.
• Gamma of a long option position is positive. Gamma
• Correlation breakdown in periods of extreme market stress neutrality provides protection against larger stock price
may reduce the usefulness of SMC and motivate the use of a movements between hedge rebalancing.
historical simulation-based approach to stress testing.
• Hedges using at the money options will have large gammas
• Worst case scenario analysis focuses on the loss distribution so frequent rebalancing will be required to maintain the delta
during the worst trading period (far greater than the hedge. Conversely, hedges using deep in or out of the money
corresponding VaR). options will have small gammas and rebalancing will not be
required as frequently.
• Expected shortfall (ES)
• A coherent risk measure exhibits monotonicity, subadditivity,
• Theta is usually negative for an option.
positive homogeneity and translational invariance. • Vega of a long option position is positive.
• VaR is not a coherent risk measure because it is not • Rho is positive/(negative) for a European call/(put) option on
subadditive. a non-dividend paying stock.
• ES is a coherent risk measure and is superior to VaR because: • Fixed income valuation
(1) ES tells us how bad a bad loss might be; and (2) it is
subadditive.
• STRIPS prices are discount factors.
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• Key rates and partial ‘01s express the exposures of a position • Calculating economic capital based on the portfolio UL and
in terms of hedging securities. Forward bucket ‘01s are capital multiplier (learn formula).
calculated by shifting the forward rate over each of the
regions/buckets of the term structure, one at a time.
• Operational risk