National University of Singapore

BPM1701 Calculus and Statistics

Tutorial 10 Basic Probability Solutions

1. Given P (A) = 0.7, P (B) = 0.4, P (A ∪ B) = 0.8. Find P (A|B) and P (B|A).
ans We have
P (A ∩ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∪ B)
= 0.7 + 0.4 − 0.8
= 0.3

P (A|B) = P (A ∩ B) ÷ P (B)
0.3
=
0.4
= 0.75

P (B|A) = P (A ∩ B) ÷ P (A)
0.3
=
0.7
= 0.429

2. A salesman has a success rate of 0.3, i.e. the probability that a passerby will buy the
product after his salespitch is 0.3. What is the probability that there are 2 or more
passersby out of 4 buying the product after his salespitch? Assume the 4 passersby
decisions are independent of each other.
Answer: We have P (a passerby buys) = 0.3.
Thus P (no passerby out of 4 buys) = (1 − 0.3)4 = 0.2401.
P (1 passerby out of 4 buys) = 4 × 0.3(1 − 0.3)3 = 0.4116.
P (2 or more passersby buy) = 1−P (no passerby out of 4 buys)−P (1 passerby out of 4 buys).
P (2 or more passersby buy) = 1 − 0.2401 − 0.4116 = 0.348.

3. Given n(U ) = 100, n(A) = 60, n(B) = 70, n(A∩B) = 40. Find n(A∪B) and n(A∩B c ).
Answer: We have
n(A ∪ B) = n(A) + n(B) − n(A ∩ B)
= 60 + 70 − 40
= 90

n(A ∩ B c ) = n(A ∪ B) − n(B)

= 90 − 70
= 20

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BPM1701 Calculus and Statistics Tutorial 10

4. A fair die has 6 sides numbered 1 to 6. It is consecutively tossed 2 times. Assuming

that the tosses are independent events, what is the probability that the total score is
8?
Answer: 8 can be obtained from 2 + 6, 3 + 5, 4 + 4, 5 + 3, 6 + 2 (5 ways). Hence
 
1 1
P (no passerby out of 4 buys) = 5 × ×
6 6
= 0.139

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