STAT 4710 HW 3

Sam Oliver
September 18th, 2022

Exercise 2.111. What is the probability that a randomly selected potential customer will
purchase the product?

A : They see the magazine ad. B : They see the TV ad.

A ∪ B : They see the magazine ad, TV ad, or both.

1 1
P(A) = = 0.02 P(B) = = 0.2
50 5
P(A ∪ B) = 0.02 + 0.2 − 0.21 = 0.01 P(A ∩ B) = 1 − 0.21 = 0.79
   
1 1
P(they buy a product) = (0.01) + (0.79) = 0.149
3 10
Exercise 2.112.

a) 0.02 · 0.02 · 0.02 = 0.000008

b) 0.98 · 0.98 · 0.98 = 0.9412

Exercise 2.114.

a) 0.95 · 0.10 = 0.095

b) 0.95 · (1 − 0.10) = 0.855

c) 0.1 · (1 − 0.95) = 0.005

d) P(at least one is positive) = 1 − P(none are positive) = 1 − (0.05 · 0.9) = 0.955

Exercise 2.115. (0.75)4 = 0.3164

Exercise 2.116. P(system works) = 1 − P(system fails) = 1 − (0.01)3 ≈ 0.9999

1
 Exercise 2.117.

a)
Ω = {(P, P, P, P), (F, P, P, P), (P, F, P, P), (P, P, F, P),
(P, P, P, F), (F, F, P, P), (F, P, F, P), (F, P, P, F),
(F, F, F, P), (F, F, P, F), (F, F, F, F), (P, P, F, F),
(P, F, P, F), (P, F, F, P), (F, P, F, F), (P, F, F, F)}
4
have three fails, thus P(three fails) = 0.25
16
1
b) = 0.0625
16
Exercise 2.118. If C = (correct donor), and considering we have 2 minutes per test, i.e. 4
tries, we see that
P(C) = P(C) + P(C · C) + P(C · C · C) + P(C · C · C · C)
= 0.4 + 0.6 · 0.4 + 0.6 · 0.6 · 0.4 + 0.6 · 0.6 · 0.6 · 0.4
= 0.8704
Exercise 2.119.

a)
A : sum of 3 B : sum of neither 3 or 7
2 28
P(A) = P(B) =
36 36

2 2 28 2
 2
28 X
n  n−1
1 7
→ + · + · + ··· =
36 36 36 36 36 18 9
i=1
1 1
18 18 1
= 14 = 4 =
1− 18 18
4

b) P(sum of 4 before sum of 7)

1 1 3 Xn  n−1
1 3 1
1
+ · + ··· = = 12 3 =
12 12 4 12 4 1 − 4
3
i=1

Exercise 2.124. Noting the formula

P(A | Bj ) · P(Bj )
P(Bi | A) = Pk ,
i=1 [P(A | Bi ) · P(Bi )]
and setting A : in favor, B1 : is a democrat, we have that
P(in favor | democrat) · P(democrat)
P(democrat | in favor) =
P(in favor | democrat) · 0.6 + P(in favor | republican) · 0.3

2
 0.7 · 0.6
P(democrat | in favor) = = 0.77
0.7 · 0.6 + 0.4 · 0.3
Exercise 2.125.

A : has disease A : doesn’t have disease B : indicates yes B : indicates no

0.9 · 0.01
P(has disease | indicates yes) = = 0.833
0.9 · 0.01 + 0.1 · 0.99
Exercise 2.128.

a) If P(A | B) = P(A | B), then A and B are independent.

Proof. Suppose that P(A | B) = P(A | B). Then,

P(B | A) = P(A | B) · P(B) + P(A | B) · P(B)

= P(A | B)[P(B) + P(B)] = P(A)

b) If P(A | C) > P(B | C) and P(A | C) > P(B | C), then P(A) > P(B).
Proof. Suppose P(A | C) > P(B | C) and P(A | C) > P(B | C). Then, we see that

P(A | C) · P(C) > P(B | C) · P(C)

and
P(A | C) · P(C) > P(B | C) · P(C).
∴ P(A | C) · P(C) + P(A | C) · P(C) > P(B | C) · P(C) + P(B | C) · P(C)
X
n X
n
P(A | Ci ) · P(Ci ) > P(B | Ci ) · P(Ci )
i=1 i=1

⇕
P(A) > P(B)

Exercise 2.129. A response picked of the 20 was negative. What is the probability it was from
a male participant?
A : reacts positively B : male

P(A | B) · P(B)
P(B | A) =
P(A | B) · P(B) + P(A | B) · P(B)
(1 − 0.4) · 14
= = 0.4
(1 − 0.4) · 14 + 0.3 · 34

3
 2.130. Find the percentage of Georgians living during the same period who will contract (or
have contracted) lung cancer, given that they have at some prior time worked in a shipyard.

A : gets cancer B : works in the shipyard

P(B | A) · P(A)
P(A | B) =
P(B | A) · P(A) + P(B | A) · P(A)
0.22 · 0.0004
= = 0.00063
0.22 · 0.0004 + 0.14 · (1 − 0.0004)

Exercise 2.133.

A : selects correct answer B : knows correct answer

A : selects wrong answer B : guesses

P(B) = 0.8 P(B) = 0.2 P(A | B) = 0.25

1 · 0.8
P(B | A) = ≈ 0.9412
1 · 0.8 + 0.25 · 0.2
Exercise 2.134.
A : skill A B : skill B F : fails
P(A | F) = 0.2 P(F | B) = 0.1 P(A) = 0.7 P(B) = 0.3
0.2 · 0.7
P(A | F) = ≈ 0.8235
0.2 · 0.7 + 0.1 · 0.3
Exercise 2.135.

a) This is an example of expected value.

P(B) = P(B | MA) · P(MA) + P(B | PA) · P(PA) + P(B | NA) · P(NA)
= 0.5 · 0.6 + 0.6 · 0.3 + 0.9 · 0.1 = 0.57

b)
P(B ∩ PA) = P(B | PA) · P(PA) = 0.6 · 0.3 = 0.18
c)
P(B | PA) · P(PA) 0.6 · 0.3
P(PA | B) = = = 0.3158
P(B) 0.57
d) P(B | NA) = 0.9

Exercise 3.3. P(Y = y) = f(y)    

n 4
= =6
r 2
Because the first defective was found, Y can only take the values 2, 3, or 4.

4
 For Y = 2, it must be 1 C1 since the second was found on the second try, thus there could be no
more arrangements chosen.  
1
1
P(Y = 2) = = 0.166
6
For Y = 3, there would be two other places considered for choosing, hence 2 C1 .
 
2
1
P(Y = 3) = = 0.33
6
Finally, for Y = 4 there would be three places for choosing, hence 3 C1 .
 
3
1
P(Y = 4) = = 0.5
6
Exercise 3.6.

5 C2 = 10
a) For Y = 2, we have that
1 C1 1
=
10 10
For Y = 3, we have that
2 C1 2
=
10 10
For Y = 4,
3 C2 3
=
10 10
For Y = 5,
4 C3 4
=
10 10
b) For Y = 3 (sum is 3), we have the pair (1, 2), so

1
P(Y = 3) =
10

For Y = 4, we have (1, 3), so

1
P(Y = 4) =
10
For Y = 5, we have (1, 4) and (2, 3), so

2
P(Y = 5) =
10

5
For Y = 6, we have (2, 4) and (1, 5), so

2
P(Y = 6) =
10

For Y = 7, we have (3, 4) and (2, 5), so

2
P(Y = 7) =
10

For Y = 8, we have (3, 5), so

1
P(Y = 8) =
10
For Y = 9, (4, 5), so
1
P(Y = 9) =
10
Exercise 3.8. Y = number of cells in the next generation.

P(0) = 0.1 + 0.9 · 0.1 · 0.1 = 0.109

P(4) = 0.9 · 0.9 · 0.9 = 0.729

P(2) = 1 − P(0) − P(4) = 0.162
Exercise 3.9.

a)

P(X = 0) = (0.95)3 ≈ 0.8574

P(X = 1) = 3 · 0.05 · 0.952 ≈ 0.1354
P(X = 2) = 3 · 0.052 · 0.95 ≈ 0.0071
P(X = 3) = (0.05)3 = 0.000125

b) See attached document

c) P(X > 1) = 1 − P(1 ⩽ X) = 1 − [P(0) + P(1)] = 0.0072

Exercise 3.10.

P(X = 0) = 0.2
P(X = 1) = 0.8 · 0.2 = 0.16
P(X = 2) = 0.8 · 0.8 · 0.2 = 0.128
P(X = 3) = 0.2 · (0.8)3 = 0.1024
..
.

6
 Exercise 3.12.
E(Y) = 0.4 · 1 + 0.3 · 2 + 0.2 · 3 + 0.1 · 4 = 2
 
1 1 1 1 1
E = · 0.4 + · 0.3 + · 0.2 + · 0.1 ≈ 0.6417
Y 1 2 3 4
E(Y 2 − 1) = (12 − 1) · (0.4) + (22 − 1) · 0.3 + (32 − 1) · 0.2 + (42 − 1) · 0.1 = 4

σ2 = E(Y 2 ) − µ2 = 1 · 0.4 + 4 · 0.3 + 9 · 0.2 + 16 · 0.1 − 22 = 1

Exercise 3.13.

µ = E(X) = 1 · 0.25 + 2 · 0.25 − 1(0.5) = 0.25

σ2 = E(X2 ) − µ2 = 1 · (0.25) + 4 · (0.25) + 1 · (0.5) − 0.252 = 1.6875

E(Y − N) = 0.25
Exercise 3.19.
2 2
P(Y = C − 15) = 1 − P(Y = C − 15 − 1000) =
100 100
E(Y) = 50 = (C − 1015) · 0.02 + (C − 15) · 0.98
⇕
C = 85
Exercise 3.21.

E(N) = 8π · E(R2 ) E(R2 ) = 212 (0.05) + 222 (0.20) + · · · + 262 (0.05) = 549.1
Hence,
E(N) = 8π · 549.1 ≈ 13, 800
Exercise 3.23.
8 8 36
E(X) = 15 · +5· −4· ≈ $0.31
52 52 52
Exercise 3.25.
1 4
E(P1 ) = · 180, 000 + · 90, 000 = 60, 000
9 9
E(P1 ) = E(P2 ) = 60, 000
Exercise 3.30.

a) Larger because E(1) is 1, so it would be E(Y) + 1 > E(X).

b) E(X) = E(Y + 1) = E(Y) + E(1) = µ + 1 ✓

c) Distribution wouldn’t change, it is just shifted. Variance wouldn’t be affected.

d) V(X) = V(Y + 1) = V(Y).

7
Proof. Suppose the result. So,

V(X) = E[X − E(X)]2 = E(1 + Y − µ − 1)2 = E(y − µ)2 = σ2

Exercise 3.33.

a)
Proof.
E(aY + B) = E(aY) + E(b) = aE(Y) + b = aµ + b

b)

Proof.
V(aY + b) = E[(aY + b − (aµ + b)]2 = E(aY − aµ)2 = a2 V(Y) = a2 σ2