UNIVERSITY OF ZAMBIA

SCHOOL OF MINES
DEPARTMENT OF MINING ENGINEERING

MIN 4025 GEOSTATISTICS

Lecture 1A: Statistical Estimators of Grade

Prof. Emmanuel K Chanda

M IN 4025 1

TOPIC 1
STATISTICAL ESTIMATORS OF THE GRADE
Objective: Review Basic Statistics

1. Central tendency – mean, median, mode

2. Data spread – range, interquartile range, variance
3. Histograms & frequency distributions
4. Cumulative distributions
5. Skewed data statistics
6. CoV (Coefficient of Variation
7. Sichel’s mean
8. Top Cuts?
9. Declustering
10.Confidence Interval estimation
M IN 4025 2

1
 STATISTICAL ESTIMATORS OF THE GRADE

• Application of stats to grade estimation.

• Require random and uniformly distributed
samples.
• Estimates are from samples for the unknown
population (ore body) – see figure 1.

Figure 1:

Resource Estimation & M in Geo 311 4

- Aplication of Statistics

2
 STEPS IN APPLICATION OF STATS

1. Database
2. Data analysis
3. Frequency distributions
4. Estimation of mean and variance
5. Calculation of confidence interval for the mean

SHAPE OF ASSAY DISTRIBUTION

• Skewness = ((Xi-m)3)/ 3)÷n-2

Where;
-  = Standard deviation
- m = Sample mean
- n = number of samples
- Xi = Individual assay value
• Skewness measures departure from symmetry
• A symmetrical distribution should have a value = 0
6

3
 SHAPE OF ASSAY DISTRIBUTION

Positive skew Negative skew

• Kurtosis = ((Xi-m)4)/ 2

Where;

 = Variance of values
- Close to three for a normal
distribution
- Measure of ‘peakness’

4
 COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION (COV)

COV = Standard Deviation/mean

- Describes variability of assays in the deposit

- For normal population C~0.5

- Larger values may indicate lognormality.

How do we provide representative statistics when

dealing with skewed data?

Lognormal data has normal distribution when samples are transformed

Resource Estimation & M in Geo 311 10
- Aplication of Statistics

10

5
 Use log probability plot to test for lognormality
Resource Estimation & M in Geo 311 11
- Aplication of Statistics

11

EFFECT OF DATA TRANSFORM

• Mean of transformed data not affected by original
extreme grades
• The log-mean can be back transformed to a grade by
taking exponential of the log mean.
• But, log transformed data follows a normal
distribution – mean, mode, median coincide!
• Hence, log mean and log median coincide.
• Therefore, log mean = stats that divides sample values
in half (50th percentile).

12

12

6
 Direct back transformation of log mean yields an estimate of the
median
13

13

Back transformed log mean is scaled by back-transform half

log variance to calculate sichels mean
14

14

7
 SICHEL’S MEAN

 log variance 
 
Sichels' s Mean = e (log mean)
e  2 

Where;
Log mean = Mean of transformed data (Log10(Xi)
Log variance = Variance of transformed data

Resource Estimation & M in Geo 311 15

- Aplication of Statistics

15

TOP CUTS

• Top cuts prevent overestimation in small sub-sample

sets.
• This is due to disproportionate high grade samples
• Top cutting means resetting all high samples to the
top cut value
• This controls the influence of the extreme grades
• Sichel’s mean is a useful statistic to use as a guide to
selecting top cuts when the underlying distribution is
lognormal
Resource Estimation & M in Geo 311 16
- Aplication of Statistics

16

8
 Top Cutting means resetting all high samples to the top cut value

17

17

TOP CUTTING PROCEDURE

• Select top cut iteratively and calculate the

corresponding average grade.
• The appropriate top cut grade is the top cut whose
value is equivalent to Sichel’s mean of the original
sample data (i.e., without top cuts).
• When data are not log-normally distributed the point
of distribution decay or disintegration can be used as a
guide to selecting the top cut value.
• Select top cut so that the top cut mean = Sichels mean
for raw data.
18

18

9
 Assess grade of disintegration (Snowden, 2004)

19

19

Steps for Top Cutting

1. Sort data into ascending grade

2. Identify at what grade the sample data appears to

disintegrate
3. Test disintegration point as top cut
4. Calculate top cut mean.
5. Compare to Sichel’s mean
6. Repeat until top cut mean = Sichel’s mean

20

20

10
 CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTIONS (CDF)

• CDF is an accumulated histogram, where…

• Proportion of samples below a certain grade is

plotted against that grade.
• CDFs have an “S” shape for non-skewed data.
• CDFs are useful for reading probabilities of grade
above or below any given cutoff grade.

21

21

22

22

11
 DECLUSTERING

• Clustering is caused by irregular sampling of a

volume.
• Stats biased by additional samples (“director’s
holes”)
• Data can be declustered in one of these ways:
1. Interactive filtering or removal of drill holes
2. Nearest neighbour declustering
3. Cell weighting declustering
• Only decluster for stats, use all data for estimation!
23

23

DECLUSTERING through interactive removal of samples

24

24

12
 25

25

TREATMENT OF DATA SETS

• Calculate frequency distribution of 1 kg samples from a

fluorite deposit.
• Determine class intervals
• Plot the frequency distribution
• Determine the theoretical distribution to fit data
• Perform calculations of mean, variance, Sd and confidence
limits

26

26

13
 Example data set:

Interval (%) Frequency Rel’ freq Cum freq

0.1 - 5.0 2 0.067 0.067
5.1 - 10.0 2 0.067 0.134
10.1 - 15.0 4 0.133 0.267
15.1 - 20.0 7 0.233 0.500
20.1 - 25.0 5 0.167 0.667
25.1 - 30.0 5 0.167 0.834
30.1 - 35.0 3 0.100 0.934
35.1 - 40.0 2 0.067 1.000
 30 1.00
27

27

• Class Interval = range/(1 + 3.22log n)

• Frequency distribution (Histogram):

% CaF2
Mean of class interval
Resource Estimation & M in Geo 311 28
- Aplication of Statistics

28

14
 ESIMATION OF MEAN AND VARIANCE

• Mean = ( Xi)/n
• Consider sample support:
- Mean = ( ai*Xi)/  ai
- ai may be core length
• Mean of data within class width
- Mean = (( fi*Xi)/  fi
- fi = frequency of class interval
- Xi = mean of class interval

29

29

THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

• Symmetrical bell shaped curve

• Completely described by mean () and variance ()
• Low COV (less 1); If not, unlikely Normal
• Areas under normal curve (see figure 2)
• The area is related to the probability with which the
sample value of the random variable , ‘X’, is located
between the defined limits.
• Tables of standard normal distribution available.
• Application to estimation of confidence interval for the
mean. 30

30

15
 Figure 2:

31

31

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR THE MEAN

• How precisely does the sample mean reflect the population

mean?
• Indication of the error is completely meaningless unless it is
accompanied by degree of certainty or level of confidence.
• In stats, the probability that we associate with an interval
estimate is called the CONFIDENCE LEVEL. The CL
corresponds to the area under the curve between the confidence
limits
•The distribution of mean values derived from repeated selection
of samples is approximately normal.

32

32

16
 Confidence Interval for the mean

•Example: Zinc concentrates sampled repeatedly

-Mean = 50.5% Zn
-Variance = 1.56 (%Zn) 2 => Standard Deviation = +- 1.25 % Zn
-This means that [49.25 %Zn true mean  51.95%Zn]

33

33

MEAN, VARIANCE AND CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATION

• Sample mean,

x
1
x= i
n i =1

34

34

17
 Sample Variance:

 2
()
n


1 
s =
2
xi − n x 
n − 1  i =1 


35

35

• Standard deviation:

s = s2
• Mean and variance of ore body:

 =x
s2
V ( ) =
n

Resource Estimation & M in Geo 311 36

- Aplication of Statistics

36

18
 Resource Estimation & M in Geo 311 37
- Aplication of Statistics

37

• Let p = confidence limit of true mean  such that the

probability that  is smaller than p is p.
• Then 1-p is the confidence limit such that the probability that 
> 1- is p
• The probability that  falls between up and 1-p is (1-2p) and the
limits are called the central (1-2p) confidence limits for the mean.
• If n is greater than 25, the following approximation equations
can be used to calculate the central 68% and 95% confidence
limits for the mean value of the orebody (ie, p= 16% and p = 2.5%
respectively)

38

38

19
 • Let p = confidence limit of true mean  such that the
probability that  is smaller than p is p.
• Then 1-p is the confidence limit such that the probability that 
> 1- is p
• The probability that  falls between up and 1-p is (1-2p) and the
limits are called the central (1-2p) confidence limits for the mean.
• If n is greater than 25, the following approximation equations
can be used to calculate the central 68% and 95% confidence
limits for the mean value of the orebody (ie, p= 16% and p = 2.5%
respectively)

39

39

• Let p = confidence limit of true mean  such that the

probability that  is smaller than p is p.
• Then 1-p is the confidence limit such that the probability that 
> 1- is p
• The probability that  falls between up and 1-p is (1-2p) and the
limits are called the central (1-2p) confidence limits for the mean.
• If n is greater than 25, the following approximation equations
can be used to calculate the central 68% and 95% confidence
limits for the mean value of the orebody (ie, p= 16% and p = 2.5%
respectively)

40

40

20
 CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR ‘n’ GREATER THAN 25:

s s
68% CI: x− ,x+
n n
s s
95% CI: x−2 ,x+2
n n

41

41

CONFIDENCE LIMITS FOR n < 25

s
• Lower Limit:  p =  − t1− p
n

s
• Upper Limit: 1− p =  + t1− p
n

42

42

21
 Where;

• t1-p = Value of Student ‘t-variate’ for f = n-1 degrees of

freedom, such that the probability that t is smaller than t 1-p is
1-p.
• t- values can be obtained from tables, such as table 2.2
(handout).
• Example for p=5% and n=10 we calculate 1-p = 95% and for
f = n-1 = 9. Hence, using Table 2.2, tp = 1.833.

43

43

EXAMPLE 1
• Eight samples have been taken from an orebody, whose
values are assumed to be normally distributed.
• Sample values:

i 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Xi 1.2 2.0 1.6 1.7 2.5 1.9 1.5 2.1

1. Draw the histogram using class intervals of length 0.2.

2. Estimate the average grade of the orebody and the
corresponding central 90% confidence limits.

44

44

22
 SOLUTION
• Mean = 1.812
• Variance = 0.161
• Standard deviation = 0.402
• Given 1-p = 0.90, we calculate p = 0.05 and for n=8 we
derive from Table 2.2, t 0.95 = 1.895
• Hence Confidence Limits for the mean:
-Upper Limit = 1.812 + 1.895 (0.402/81/2 = 2.08
-Lower Limit = 1.812 - 1.895 (0.402/81/2 = 1.54

45

45

Exercise:
• DO Ex.2.9, Question 9 on Pg 27 of the book “Geostatistics
2000; Available on WhatsApp group/Moodle
• Students to work in pairs

46

46

23