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ﻣﻜﻮﻥ ﻣﻦ Nﻣﻔﺮﺩﺓ .ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻚ Nق nﻗﻴﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺪﺭ ﺍﻟﻮﺍﺣﺪ ﳝﻜﻦ
ﺣﺴﺎﲠﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ .ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻴﻌﺘﱪ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ ﻣﺘﻐﲑ ﳝﻜﻦ
ﺣﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻔﺮﺹ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﺄﺧﺬﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ �ﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ
ﻭﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ ﺑﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺪﺭ.
• ﻳﺘﺤﺪﺩ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻭﻣﻀﻤﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﲏ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ ﲟﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻭﻡ
) (Momentﺍﻷﺭﺑﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﱃ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ :ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻡ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻭﳝﺜﻠﻪ ﺍﻟﻮﺳﻂ
ﺍﳊﺴﺎﺑﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺪﺭ ،ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻡ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ ﻭﳝﺜﻠﻪ ﺍﻹﳓﺮﺍﻑ
ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ،ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻡ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻭﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﻹﻟﺘﻮﺍﺀ ) (Skewnessﻭﺍﻟﻌﺰﻡ
ﺍﻟﺮﺍﺑﻊ ﻭﻳﻌﻜﺲ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺮﻃﺢ ﺃﻭ ﲰﺎﻛﺔ ﺍﻟﺬﻳﻞ ).(Kurtosis
ﻭﲢﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﺰﻭﻡ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺪﺭ.
• ﺇﺫﺍ ﺭﻣﺰ�ﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺪﺭ ﺑــ ˆ θﻭﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﳌﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﱵ ﻳﻘﺪﺭﻫﺎ ﺑــ θﻓﺈﻥ
ﺍﻻﳓﺮﺍﻑ D = θˆ − θﻳﻌﺮﻑ ﲞﻄﺄ ﺍﳌﻌﺎﻳﻨﺔ ) Sampling
(Errorﺃﻭ ﺧﻄﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ ) .(Estimation Errorﻭﻳﺴﺘﺨﺪﻡ
ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﳋﻄﺄ ﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺩﺭﺟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻴﺰ ﻟﻠﻤﻘﺪﺭ ﻭﰲ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺓ
ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ .ﻭﻟﺘﺤﺪﻳﺪ ﲢﻴﺰ ﺍﳌﻘﺪﺭ ﺃﻭ ﻛﻔﺎﺀﺗﻪ ﳓﺘﺎﺝ ﺃﻥ �ﺴﺘﻌﺮﺽ
�ﻈﺮﻳﺔ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ.
ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺕ
3 ﻭﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺭﻗﻢ ﻓﺮﺩﻱ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺭﻣﻲ ﺯﻫﺮﺓ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ
6
ﺃﻭ 2ﺣﻴﺚ ﲤﺜﻞ 3ﻋﺪﺩ ﻣﺮﺍﺕ ﻇﻬﻮﺭ ﺭﻗﻢ ﻓﺮﺩﻱ ﻭ 6ﲤﺜﻞ ﻋﺪﺩ
1
• ﺗﺒﻌﺎً ﻟﻘﺎ�ﻮﻥ ﺍﳉﻤﻊ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳊﺪﺛﲔ Aﺃﻭ Bﰲ
ﲡﺮﺑﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻫﻮ ﳎﻤﻮﻉ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﺣﺪﻭﺛﻬﻤﺎ ﻣﻨﻔﺮﺩﻳﻦ �ﺎﻗﺼﺎً ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ
ﺣﺪﻭﺛﻬﻤﺎ ﳎﺘﻤﻌﲔ ،ﺃﻱ:
) P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A , B
ﻭﻳﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﳊﺪﺛﺎﻥ Aﻭ Bﺃﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﻣﺴﺘﺒﻌﺪﺓ ) Mutually
(Exclusiveﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺣﺪﻭﺛﻬﻤﺎ ﻣﻌﺎً ﻏﲑ ﳑﻜﻦ )(P(A,B)=0
ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﺎ�ﻮﻥ ﺍﳉﻤﻊ:
) P ( A or B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B
ﺃﻣﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﳊﺪﺛﲔ ﻻ ﻳﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺪﻭﺙ ﺍﻵﺧﺮ ﻓﻴﺴﻤﻰ
ﺍﳊﺪﺛﲔ ﺑﺎﳊﺪﺛﲔ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻘﻠﲔ ﻭﰲ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﳊﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ:
) P ( A, B ) = P ( A ) × P ( B
ﻭﻛﻤﺜﺎﻝ ﻟﻘﺎ�ﻮ�ﻲ ﺍﳉﻤﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﺮﺏ ﻣﻌﺎً ﺍﻓﱰﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻚ ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻗﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻷﻭﻝ 5
ﻛﺮﺍﺕ ﲪﺮﺍﺀ 5 ،ﺳﻮﺩﺍﺀ ﻭﺑﺎﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ 4ﲪﺮﺍﺀ 6 ،ﺻﻔﺮﺍﺀ ﻭﺍﻓﱰﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ
ﲢﺘﻮﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻛﺮﺓ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ ﺻﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻜﻮﻥ ﺇﺣﺪﻯ
ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺗﲔ ﲪﺮﺍﺀ ﻳﺴﺎﻭﻱ :ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻛﺮﺓ ﲪﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ +
ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻛﺮﺓ ﲪﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ -ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺳﺤﺐ ﻛﺮﺓ
ﲪﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻭﻛﺮﺓ ﲪﺮﺍﺀ ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ ،ﺃﻱ:
ﺑﺘﻄﺒﻴﻖ ﻗﺎ�ﻮﻥ ﺍﳉﻤﻊ:
)P ( R1 or R 2) = P ( R1) + P ( R 2) − P ( R1, R 2
ﺣﻴﺚ Rﺗﻌﲏ ﺃﻥ ﻟﻮﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﺮﺓ ﺍﳌﺴﺤﻮﺑﺔ ﺃﲪﺮ ﻭﺍﻟﺮﻗﻤﲔ 1ﻭ 2ﻳﻌﻨﻴﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭﻕ
ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺪﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺜﺎ�ﻲ.
x −µ
=Ζ
σ
σ
ﻭﻳﻌﺮﻑ Ζﺑـــ )Ζ ~ N ( 0,1
ﻭﻳﻌﱪ ﻋﻦ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﱄ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﲑ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ
(Standard Normal ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ
ﻳﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭ . ﺣﻴﺚ ﻻ σ )µ Distribution
ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﳊﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺃﻥ ﻳﻘﻊ ﺍﳌﺘﻐﲑ xﺑﲔ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﲔ x1ﻭ x2ﻓﺈ�ﻨﺎ
ﳓﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻢ ﺍﳌﻌﻴﺎﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻫﺎﺗﲔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺘﲔ ﺛﻢ ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﺍﻡ ﺟﺪﺍﻭﻝ
ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﺍﳌﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺃﻱ ﺃ�ﻨﺎ
x1 − µ x2 −µ
= Ζ1ﺛﻢ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻳﺼﲑ = Ζ2ﻭ ﳓﺴﺐ
σ
ﺗﻌﺒﲑ ﺍﻻﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ:
σ
) P ( x1 ≤ x ≤ x2 ) = P (Ζ1 ≤ Ζ ≤ Ζ 2
• ﻛﻤﺎ ﻳﺘﻤﻴﺰ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﺍﻟﻄﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺑﺎﳋﺼﺎﺋﺺ:
χ 2
∑ = = ∑ Ζ i2
( xi − µ )2 )~ χ 2 (n
i σ2
ﺣﻴﺚ nﻫﻲ ﺩﺭﺟﺎﺕ ﺍﳊﺮﻳﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻚ ﰲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎ�ﺎﺕ ﺍﳌﺴﺘﻤﺮﺓ.
ˆ ˆ
) Var (θ ) = E (θ − θ 2
ˆ ⎞ ⎛ Pq
P ≈ N ⎜ P, ⎟
⎝ ⎠ n