CHAPTER 3

DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES

& PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
STA116 INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY & STATISTICS

Part 2

Session 2 2019/2020
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BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
• A binomial experiment has only two outcomes or can be reduced to two
outcomes usually classified as successes or failures
For example:
- When a coin is tossed, it can lands head or tail
- A medical treatment can be classified as effective or ineffective
- A multiple choice question, even though there are four or five choices, can be
classified as correct or incorrect (reduced to two outcomes)
• A binomial experiment is a probability experiment that satisfies the following four
requirements:
1. There must be a fixed number of trials
2. Each trial can have only two outcomes or outcomes that can be reduced to
two – SUCCESS or FAILURE
3. The outcomes of each trial must be independent of one another
4. The probability of a success must remain the same for each trial
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
• Probability of a success in a binomial distribution is given by
P(X) = nCx px qn-x
Where:
n = total number of trials
p = probability of success
q = 1 – p = probability of failure
X = number of success in n trials
• X ~ Bin (n, p) is read as X has a Binomial distribution with parameter n and p
Example 1:
A fair coin is toss 10 times Find the probability of getting head 6 times.
In this case; n = 10, X = 6, p = 1/2 and q = 1/2, thus
X ~ Bin (10, 1/2)
P(X = 6) = 10C6 (1/2)6 (1/2)10-6
P(X = 6) = 0.2051
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
• Example 2:
A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting exactly 2 heads.
In this case; n = 3, X = 2, p = 0.5 and q = 0.5, hence
X ~ Bin (3, 0.5)
P(X = 2) = 3C2 (0.5)2 (0.5)3-1
P(X = 2) = 0.375

• Example 3:
A survey found that one out of five Malaysians say that he/she has visited a doctor in
any given month. If 10 people are selected at random, find the probability that exactly 3
will have visited a doctor last month.
In this case; n = 10, X = 3, p = 1/5 and q = 4/5, hence
X ~ Bin (10, 1/5)
P(X = 3) = 10C3 (1/5)3 (4/5)10-3
P(X = 3) = 0.2013
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
• Example 4:
A survey found that 30% of teenage consumers received their spending money from part
time job. If 5 teenagers are selected at random, find the probability that at least 3 of them will
have part-time jobs.
In this case; n = 5, p = 0.3 and q = 1 – 0.3 = 0.7
To find the probability that at least 3 have part-time jobs, it is necessary to find the individual
probabilities for 3, 4 and 5, and then add the to get total probability, hence
X ~ Bin (5, 0.3)
P(X = 3) = 5C3 (0.3)3 (0.7)5-3
P(X = 3) = 0.132
P(X = 4) = 5C4 (0.3)4 (0.7)5-4
P(X = 4) = 0.028
P(X = 5) = 5C5 (0.3)5 (0.7)5-5
P(X = 5) = 0.002
Hence, P(X ≥ 3) = 0.132 + 0.028 + 0.002 = 0.162
MEAN, VARIANCE & STANDARD DEVIATION for BINOMIAL DIST.
• The mean, μ of a variable that has binomial distribution can be found by using
the following formula
μ = np
• Variance, 𝛔2 is
𝛔2 = npq
• Therefore, the standard deviation, 𝛔 is
𝛔 = 𝛔𝟐
MEAN, VARIANCE & STANDARD DEVIATION for BINOMIAL DIST.
• Example 5:
A coin is tossed 4 times. Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the number
of heads that will be obtained
In this case; n = 4, p = 0.5 and q = 1 – 0.5 = 0.5, hence
X ~ Bin (4, 0.5)
μ = np = 4(0.5)
μ = np = 2
𝛔2 = npq = 4(0.5)(0.5)
𝛔2 = npq = 1
𝛔= 𝛔
𝛔=1
MEAN, VARIANCE & STANDARD DEVIATION for BINOMIAL DIST.
• Example 6:
A die is rolled 360 times. Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the
number of 4s that will be rolled.

In this case; n = 360, p = 1/6 and q = 1 – 1/6 = 5/6, hence

X ~ Bin (360, 1/6)
μ = np = 360(1/6)
μ = np = 60
𝛔2 = npq = 360(1/6)(5/6)
𝛔2 = npq = 50
𝛔= 𝛔
𝛔 = 50
𝛔 = 7.07
EXAMPLE
• Example 6:
In small town, it is estimated that 5% of the population is left handed. A random
sample of 10 persons is selected. Determine the probability that
In this case; n = 10, p = 0.05 and q = 1 – 0.05 = 0.95, hence
X ~ Bin (10, 0.05)
a. 3 persons are left handed, P(X = 3)
= 10C3(0.05)3(0.95)10-3
= 0.0105
b. More than 2 persons are left handed, P( X > 2)
= P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) + . . . + P(X = 10)
= P(X ≥ 0) – [ P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) ]
= 1 – [ 10C0(0.05)0(0.95)10-0 + 10C1(0.05)1(0.95)10-1 + 10C2(0.05)2(0.95)10-2 ]
= 1 – ( 0.5987 + 0.3151 + 0.0746 )
= 1 – 0.9885
= 0.0115
EXAMPLE
• Example 6 (cont.):
c. At least 2 persons are left handed, P( X ≥ 2)
= P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + . . . + P(X = 10)
= P(X ≥ 0) – [ P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) ]
= 1 – [ 10C0(0.05)0(0.95)10-0 + 10C1(0.05)1(0.95)10-1 ]
= 1 – ( 0.5987 + 0.3151 )
= 1 – 0.9138
= 0.0862

d. Suppose that the population of the small town is estimated to be 3000 people,
find the expected number of person who are right handed
Expected number, μ
= np
= 3000(0.95) . . . success = right handed, hence p = 0.95
= 2850
COMPUTING PROBABILITY BY USING TABLE
• Computing probability by using the Binomial formula can be quite tedious at times, so
tables have been developed for selected values of n and p.
• Table 1 gives the Cumulative Binomial Probabilities
Consider
X ~ Bin (10, 0.05), using Cumulative
Binomial Probabilities table, find:
• P(X ≥ 2) = 0.0861
• P(X > 2) = P(X ≥ 3) = 0.115
• P(X ≤ 2) = P(X ≥ 0) – P(X ≥ 3)
• P(X ≤ 2) = 1 – 0.115
• P(X ≤ 2) = 0.885
• P(X < 2) = P(X ≥ 0) – P(X ≥ 2)
• P(X < 2) = 1 – 0.0861
• P(X < 2) = 0.9139
EXAMPLE
• Example 7:
What is the probability of obtaining 45 or fewer heads in 100 tosses?
In this case; n = 100, p = 0.5 and q = 1 – 0.5 = 0.5, hence
X ~ Bin (100, 0.5)
by referring Table 1 for Cumulative Binomial Probabilities
45 or fewer heads, P(X ≤ 45)
= P(X ≥ 0) – P(X ≥ 46)
= 1 – 0.8159
= 0.1841
EXAMPLE
• Example 8:
The probability that a student is accepted to a prestigious college is 0.3. If 5 students
from the same school apply, what is the probability that at most 2 are accepted?
In this case; n = 5, p = 0.3 and q = 1 – 0.3 = 0.7, hence
X ~ Bin (5, 0.3)
by referring Table 1 for Cumulative Binomial Probabilities
at most 2 are accepted, P(X ≤ 2)
= P(X ≥ 0) – P(X ≥ 3)
= 1 – 0.1631
= 0.8369