Chapter 5: Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions

Learning Objectives
- Understand random variables and types of random variables.
- Understand the concept of a probability distribution and its mean and standard deviation for a discrete random
variable
- the binomial probability distribution

Random Variable
- A random variable is a variable whose value is determined by the outcome of a random experiment.
- how many customers will visit a bank, a grocery store, or a gas station on a given day?
- How many cars will pass a bridge on a given day?
- How many students will be absent from a class on a given day?
- In all these examples, the number of customers, cars, and students are random; that is, each of these can assume
any value within a certain interval.

Types of Variables

Discrete Random Variable Examples

Continuous Random Variable

- A random variable that can assume any value contained in one or more
intervals is called a continuous random variable.
- Because the number of values contained in any interval is infinite, the
possible number of values that a continuous random variable can assume
is also infinite.
- Moreover, we cannot count these values.
- Examples:
o The time taken to commute from home to work
o The amount of milk in a gallon (note that we do not expect “a gallon” to contain exactly one gallon of
milk but either slightly more or slightly less than one gallon)
o The weight of a letter
o The price of a house
o Note that money is often treated as a continuous random variable, specifically when there are a large
number of unique values.
 Chapter 5: Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions
Probability Distribution of a Discrete Random Variable
- The probability distribution of a discrete random variable is a graph, table, or
formula that specifies the probability associated with each possible value the
random variable can assume. It is a random variable whose set of values is countable
- Example 1: Let x be the number of vehicles owned by a randomly selected family.
o Write the probability distribution of x and make a histogram for this
probability distribution.

• when the relative frequencies represent the population, they give the
actual (theoretical) probabilities of outcomes.
• Using the relative frequencies, we can write the probability
distribution of the discrete random variable x in Table 5.3.
• Note that the values of x listed in Table 5.3 are mutually exclusive
events.

- The probability distribution of a discrete random variable possesses the following two characteristics.
o 1. 0 ≤ P(x) ≤ 1 for each value of x
o 2. Σ P(x) = 1
- Example 2: Using the probability distribution listed in Table 5.3 of Example 5–1, find the
following probabilities:
o (a) The probability that a randomly selected family owns two vehicles
 P (selected family owns two vehicles) = P(x=2) = .425
o (b) The probability that a randomly selected family owns at least two vehicles
 P (selected family owns at least two vehicles) = P(x=2) + P(x=3) + P(x=4)
= .425 + .245 + .080 = .750
o (c) The probability that a randomly selected family owns at most one vehicle
 P (selected family owns at most one vehicle) = P(x=0) + P(x=1) = .015 + .235 = .250
o (d) The probability that a randomly selected family owns three or more vehicles
 P (selected family owns three or more vehicles) = P(x=3) + P(x=4) = .245 + .080 = .325
- Example 3: Each of the following tables lists certain values of x and their probabilities. Determine whether or not
each table represents a valid probability distribution.

(a) No, since the sum of all probabilities is not

equal to 1.0.
(b) Yes.
(c) No, since one of the probabilities is negative.

- Example 4: The following table lists the probability distribution of the number of breakdowns per week for a
machine based on past data.
Find the probability that the number of breakdowns
for this machine during a given week is
(a) exactly 2
(b) 0 to 2
(c) more than 1
o (a) P (exactly 2 breakdowns) = P (2) = .35 (d) at most 1
 Chapter 5: Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions
o (b) P (0 to 2 breakdowns) = P (0 ≤ x ≤ 2) = P (0 or 1 or 2) = P (0) + P (1) + P (2) = .15 + .20 + .35 = .70
o (c) P (more than 1 breakdown) = P (x > 1) = P (2 or 3) = P (2) + P (3) = .35 +.30 = .65
o (d) P (at most 1 breakdown) = P (x ≤ 1) = P (0 or 1) = P (0) + P (1) = .15 + .20 = .35
- Example 5: According to a survey, 60% of all students at a large university suffer from math anxiety. Two
students are randomly selected from this university. Let x denote the number of students in this sample who suffer
from math anxiety. Construct the probability distribution of x.

Let us define the following two events:

N = the student selected does not suffer from math
anxiety
M = the student selected suffers from math
anxiety
P (0) = P(NN) = .16
P (1) = P (NM or MN) = P(NM) + P(MN) = .24 + .24 = .48
P (2) = P(MM) = .36

Mean and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Random Variable

- The mean of a discrete variable x is the value that is expected to occur per repetition, on average, if an
experiment is repeated a large number of times. It is denoted by µ and calculated as µ = Σ x P(x)
- The mean of a discrete random variable x is also called its expected value and is denoted by E(x); that is, E(x) =
Σ x P(x)
- Example 1: The following table lists the number of breakdowns per week and their probabilities for a machine
based on past data. Find the mean number of breakdowns per week for this machine.

The mean is µ = Σx P(x) = 1.80

Note that μ = 1.80 is also the expected value of x. It
can also be written as E(x) = 1.80
Thus, on average, this machine is expected to break
down 1.80 times per week over a period of time.

Standard Deviation of a Discrete Random Variable

- The standard deviation of a discrete random variable x measures the spread of its probability distribution and is
= å x2P (x) - 2
computed as
- Example 1: Baier’s Electronics manufactures computer parts that are supplied to many computer companies.
Despite the fact that two quality control inspectors at Baier’s Electronics check every part for defects before it is
shipped to another company, a few defective parts do pass through these inspections undetected. Let x denote the
number of defective computer parts in a shipment of 400. The following table gives the probability distribution of
x. Compute the standard deviation of x

σ = √∑x 2P(x) − μ2 = √7.70 − (2.50)2 = √1.45 =

1.204 defective computer parts
The Binomial Probability Distribution
- It is one of the most widely used discrete probability distributions. Thus, a given shipment of 400 computer parts is
- It is applied to find the probability that an outcome will occur x timesexpected
in n performances
to containofanan experiment.
average of 2.50 defective
- For example, given that 75% of students at a college use Instagram, we may want to find the probability that in
parts with a standard deviation of 1.204 a
defective
random sample of five students at this college, exactly three use Instagram.
parts.
 Chapter 5: Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions
- As a second example, we may be interested in finding the probability that a baseball player with a batting average
of .250 will have no hits in 10 trips to the plate
- An experiment that satisfies the following four conditions is called a binomial experiment.
o (1) There are n identical trials. In other words, the given experiment is repeated n times, where n is a
positive integer. All of these repetitions are performed under identical conditions.
o (2) Each trial has two and only two outcomes. These outcomes are usually called a success and a failure,
respectively. In case there are more than two outcomes for an experiment, we can combine outcomes into
two events and then apply binomial probability distribution.
o (3) The probability of success is denoted by p and that of failure by q, and p + q = 1. The probabilities p
and q remain constant for each trial.
o (4) The trials are independent. In other words, the outcome of one trial does not affect the outcome of
another trial.
- Example 1: Consider the experiment consisting of 10 tosses of a coin. Determine whether or not it is a binomial
experiment.
o 1. There are a total of 10 trials (tosses), and they are all identical. Here, n=10.
o 2. Each trial (toss) has only two possible outcomes: a head and a tail.
o 3. The probability of obtaining a head (a success) is ½ and that of a tail (a failure) is ½ for any toss. That
is, p = P(H) = ½ and q = P(T) = ½
o 4. The trials (tosses) are independent.
 Consequently, the experiment consisting of 10 tosses is a binomial experiment.
- Example 2: Seventy five percent of students at a college with a large student population use Instagram. A sample
of five students from this college is selected, and these students are asked whether or not they use Instagram. Is
this experiment a binomial experiment?
o 1. This example consists of five identical trials.
o 2. Each trial has two outcomes: a student uses Instagram, or a student does not use Instagram.
o 3. The probability p that a student uses Instagram is .75. The probability q that a student does not use
Instagram is .25.
o 4. Each trial (student) is independent.
 Because all four conditions of a binomial experiment are satisfied, this is an example of a
binomial experiment.

The Binomial Probability Distribution and Binomial Formula

- For a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly x successes in n trials is given by the binomial formula

P ( x ) =n C x p x q n-x n = total number of trials

p = probability of success
q = 1 – p = probability of failure
x = number of successes in n trials
n - x = number of failures in n trials
- Mean = np
- Standard Deviation = square root of n x p x (1-p)
- Experiment: Toss 1 coin 5 times in a row. Note number of tails. What’s the probability of 3 tails?
o n = 5, x = 3, and p = .5
n!
p(x) = p x (1 - p ) n - x
x !(n - x )!

5!
p (3 ) = . 5 3 (1 - .5 ) 5 - 3
3 !(5 - 3 )!

= .3 1 2 5
- Example 1: Which of the following are binomial experiments? Explain why.
o (a) Rolling a die 10 times and observing the number of spots
 This is not a binomial experiment because there are more than two outcomes for each repetition.
 Chapter 5: Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions
o (b) Rolling a die 12 times and observing whether the number obtained is even or odd
 This is an example of a binomial experiment because it satisfies all four conditions of a binomial
experiment:
 There are many identical rolls of the die.
 Each trial has two outcomes: an even number and an odd number.
 The probability of obtaining an even number is 1/2 and that of an odd number is 1/2.
These probabilities add up to 1, and they remain constant for all trials.
 All rolls of the die are independent
o (c) Selecting a few voters from a very large population of voters and observing whether or not each of
them favors a certain proposition in an election when 54% of all voters are known to be in favor of this
proposition.
 This is an example of a binomial experiment because it satisfies all four conditions of a binomial
experiment:
 There are a few identical trials (selection of voters).
 Each trial has two outcomes: a voter favors the proposition and a voter does not favor the
proposition.
 The probability of the two outcomes are 0.54 and 0.46, respectively. These probabilities
add up to 1. These two probabilities remain the same for all selections, assuming the
population is very large.
 All voters are independent.
o (d) Drawing 3 balls with replacement from a box that contains 10 balls, 6 of which are red and 4 are blue,
and observing the colors of the drawn balls
 There are three identical trials (selections).
 Each trial has two outcomes: a red ball is drawn, and a blue ball is drawn.
 The probability of drawing a red ball is 6/10 and that of a blue ball is 4/10. These probabilities
add up to 1. The two probabilities remain constant for all draws because the draws are made with
replacement.
 All draws are independent.
- Example 2: Seventy five percent of students at
a college with a large student population use
the social media site Instagram. Three students
are randomly selected from this college. What
is the probability that exactly two of these three
students use Instagram?
o Here, we are given that: n = 3, x =
2, and p = .75. The probability of
two successes is denoted by P(x=2)
or P (2).
- Example 3: At the Express House Delivery Service, providing high-quality service to customers is the top
priority of the management. The company guarantees a refund of all charges if a package it is delivering does not
arrive at its destination by the specified time. It is known from past data that despite all efforts, 2% of the
packages mailed through this company do not arrive at their destinations within the specified time. Suppose a
corporation mails 10 packages through Express House Delivery Service on a certain day.
o (a) Find the probability that exactly one of these 10 packages will not arrive at its destination within the
specified time.
 n = total number of packages mailed = 10
p = P(success) = .02
q = P(failure) = 1 – .02 = .98
 x = number of successes = 1
n – x = number of failures = 10 – 1 = 9
 Thus, there is a .1667 probability that exactly one of the 10 packages mailed will not arrive at its
destination within the specified time.
o (b) Find the probability that at most one of these 10
packages will not arrive at its destination within the
specified time.
 Chapter 5: Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions
 At most one of the ten packages is given by the sum of the probabilities of x = 0 and x = 1
 Thus, the probability that at most one of the 10 packages mailed will not arrive at its destination
within the specified time is .9838.
- Example 4: According to a survey, 33% of American employees do not plan to change their jobs in the near
future. Let x denote the number of employees in a random sample of three American employees who do not plan
to change their jobs in the near future. Write the probability distribution of x and draw a histogram for this
probability distribution.
o n = total employees in the sample = 3
o p = P (an employee does not plan to change his/her job in the near future) = .33
o q = P (an employee does plan to change his/her job in the near future) = 1 - .33 = .67

n = total employees in the sample = 3

p = P (an employee does not plan to change his/her job in
the near future) = .33
q = P (an employee does plan to change his/her job in the
near future) = 1 - .33 = .67

Using the Table of Binomial Probabilities

- The probabilities for a binomial experiment can also be read from Table I in Appendix B, the table of binomial
probabilities.
- This lists the probabilities of x for n = 1 to n = 25.
- This lists the probabilities of x for selected values of p.
- Example 1: According to a survey, 30% of college students said that they spend
too much time on Facebook. (The remaining 70% said that they do not spend too
much time on Facebook or had no opinion.) Suppose this result holds true for the
current population of all college students. A random sample of six college
students is selected. Using Table I of Appendix B, answer the following.
o (a) Find the probability that exactly three of these six college students
will say that they spend too much time on Facebook.
 P (3) = .1852
o (b) Find the probability that at most two of these six college students will say that they spend too much
time on Facebook.
 P (at most 2) = P (0 or 1 or 2) = P (0) + P (1) + P (2) = .1176 + .3025 + .3241 = .7442
o (c) Find the probability that at least three of these six college students will say that they spend too much
time on Facebook.
 (c) P (at least 3) = P(3 or 4 or 5 or 6) = P(3) + P(4) + P(5) + P(6)
= .1852 + .0595 + .0102 + .0007= .2556
o (e) Let x be the number in a random sample of six college students who will say
that they spend too much time on Facebook. Write the probability distribution of x
and draw a histogram for this probability distribution.
 Chapter 5: Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions
Probability of Success and the Shape of the Binomial Distribution
- For any number of trials n:
- 1. The binomial probability distribution is symmetric if p =.50.

- 2. The binomial probability distribution is skewed to the right if p is less than .50.

- 3. The binomial probability distribution is skewed to the left if p is greater than .50.

Mean and Standard Deviation of the Binomial Distribution

- The mean and standard deviation of a binomial distribution are, respectively,
- where n is the total number of trials, p is the probability of success, and q is the probability of failure.
- Example 1: According to a Pew Research Center survey released on May 12, 2015, 22.8% of U.S. adults do not
have a religious affiliation (Time, May 25, 2015). Assume that this result is true for the current population of U.S.
adults. A sample of 50 U.S. adults is randomly selected. Let x be the number of adults in this sample who do not
have a religious affiliation. Find the mean and standard deviation of the probability distribution of x.
o n = 50, p = .228, and q = .772
o Using the formulas for the mean and standard deviation of the
binomial distribution,

Challenge
You’re a telemarketer selling service contracts for Macy’s. You’ve sold 20 in your last 100 calls (p = .20). If you call 12
people tonight, what’s the probability of n = 12, p = .2
• A. No sales? p (0) = .069
• B. Exactly 2 sales? P (2) = .283
• C. At most 2 sales? p (0) + p (1) + p (2) = .069 + .206 + .283 = .558
• D. At least 2 sales? = p (2) + p (3) ...+ p (12) = 1 – [p(0) + p(1)] = 1 – .069 – .206 = .7251
 Chapter 5: Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions
According to a survey, 25% of motorists in a large city are uninsured. Suppose that currently 25% of all motorists in this
city are uninsured. Two motorists are selected at random from this city. Let x denote the number of motorists in this
sample of two who are uninsured. Construct the probability distribution table of x.
Chapter 5: Discrete Random Variables and Their Probability Distributions