Manila Observatory (2005) Philippine Risk Assessment Maps.

http://www.observatory.ph/vm/risk_maps.html

Risk = Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability

Geophysical Risk

Earthquake Risk:
Since 1968, PHIVOLCS has recorded twelve destructive earthquakes in the Philippines. This record includes
the infamous July 16,1990 Luzon earthquake which caused innumerable injuries and at least 1,100 deaths.
Seismicity (geographic and historical distribution of earthquake events) is all over the country except in the
Palawan region.

The top ten provinces that are at risk to earthquakes are:

1. Surigao Del Sur
2. La Union
3. Benguet
4. Pangasinan
5. Pampanga
6. Tarlac
7. Ifugao
8. Davao Oriental
9. Nueva Vizcaya
10. Nueva Ecija

La Union and Pangasinan are prone to earthquakes, especially the deep-focused ones, due to the Manila
Trench while Surigao del Sur and Davao Oriental have earthquake hazards due to Philippine Trench and nearby
active faults. Frequency of shallow and left-lateral strike-slip earthquakes in Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija,
Eastern Pangasinan, Benguet and La Union can be attributed to its location along the Philippine Fault Zone.

However, Ifugao, despite having less earthquake occurrences is at risk because of its very high vulnerability to
disasters.

Earthquake-induced Landslides Risk:

Most of the provinces, except Palawan, are susceptible to landslide hazards. The top ten provinces that are at
risk to earthquake-induced shallow landslides are:

1. Ifugao
2. Lanao Del Sur
3. Sarangani
4. Benguet
5. Mountain Province
6. Bukidnon
7. Aurora
8. Davao del Sur
9. Davao Oriental
10. Rizal

Ifugao, Lanao del Sur and Sarangani ranked high because of their high vulnerability to disasters while Rizal
ranked the lowest. Benguet, despite its low vulnerability, ranked four because of its high exposure factor or
population density. Aurora ranked higher than Davao del Sur and Davao Oriental despite its low vulnerability
compared with the other two provinces. This is due to the fact that the whole of Aurora is more susceptible to
landslide than the other two provinces.

Volcanic Eruptions Risk:

Philippines lies within the Ring of Fire, a region of subduction zone volcanism surrounding the Pacific Ocean.
This explains the distribution of most volcanoes in the Philippines. In 1991, Mt. Pinatubo eruption was well
known to be the most violent eruption in the 20th century. Philippine Volcanoes are classified as Active, Inactive
and Potentially active. Twenty-two (22) historically active volcanoes are distributed all over the archipelago.

Since volcanoes are not present in some provinces, these particular areas have no risk to volcanic eruptions.
The top ten provinces at risk are:

1. Camiguin
2. Sulu
3. Biliran
4. Albay
5. Bataan
6. Sorsogon
7. South Cotabato
8. Laguna
9. Camarines Sur
10. Batanes

Camiguin has the highest risk because the land area is so small such that a volcanic eruption can affect the
whole province. Sulu ranked second because it has the most number of active and potentially active volcanoes.

Tsunami Risk:

In November 14,1994, a 7.1 magnitude earthquake in Mindoro triggered a tsunami that left at least 41 persons
dead, mostly children and old people.

Most of the coastal areas have experienced a tsunami or have a tsunami hazard potential. The top ten
provinces that are at risk to tsunamis are:

1. Sulu
2. Tawi-tawi
3. Basilan
4. Batanes
5. Guimaras
6. Romblon
7. Siquijor
8. Surigao del Norte
9. Camiguin
10. Masbate.

Sulu and Tawi-tawi took the top two seats because of their high potential for tsunami owing to their location
between two nearby trenches namely, Sulu Trench and Cotabato Trench. Moreover, both provinces are also
densely populated and have very high vulnerability. Similarly, most areas in Basilan and Romblon are at high
risk especially because they have been previously affected by a tsunami. (PHIVOLCS)

Climate and Weather Risk.

Risk to Projected Temperature Increase.

The areas most at risk to temperature increase during the projected 2080 climatology are Mindanao and Central
Visayas.

The top 20 provinces at risk to projected temperature increase are:

1. Sulu
2. Basilan
 3. Lanao Del Sur
4. Maguindanao
5. Lanao Del Norte
6. Davao Del Sur
7. Zamboanga Del Sur
8. Tawi-tawi
9. Misamis Occidental
10. Camiguin
11. Siquijor
12. Misamis Oriental
13. Cebu
14. Agusan Del Norte
15. Zamboanga Del Norte
16. Albay
17. Sarangani
18. Negros Oriental
19. Negros Occidental
20. Ifugao

Projected Rainfall Change Risk:

The map of risk to projected rainfall change shown below incorporates both rainfall decrease during the dry
season and rainfall increase during the wet season. The areas most at risk to projected rainfall changes are
Central, South and Southeast Luzon and Eastern Visayas.

The top 20 provinces at risk to projected rainfall change are:

1. Albay
2. Pampanga
3. Ifugao
4. Rizal
5. Cavite
6. Sorsogon
7. Laguna
8. Biliran
9. Batangas
10. Pangasinan
11. Masbate
12. Metro Manila
13. Tarlac
14. Nueva Ecija
15. Northern Samar
16. Aklan
17. Capiz
18. La Union
19. Western Samar
20. Romblon

Typhoon Risk:

Northern Luzon, Southeastern Luzon and Eastern Visayas are the areas highly at risk to the occurrence of
tropical depressions, tropical storms, typhoons and super typhoons.

The top 20 provinces at risk to typhoons are:

1. Cagayan
2. Albay
3. Ifugao
 4. Sorsogon
5. Kalinga
6. Ilocos Sur
7. Ilocos Norte
8. Camarines Norte
9. Mountain Province
10. Camarines Sur
11. Northern Samar
12. Catanduanes
13. Apayao
14. Pampanga
15. La Union
16. Nueva Ecija
17. Pangasinan
18. Masbate
19. Tarlac
20. Western Samar

El Niño Risk:

Areas highly at risk to El Niño-induced drought are Central and West Mindanao.

The top 20 provinces at risk to drought are:

1. Sulu
2. Basilan
3. Maguindanao
4. Lanao Del Sur
5. Lanao Del Norte
6. Davao Del Sur
7. Misamis Occidental
8. Sarangani
9. Zamboanga Del Sur
10. South Cotabato
11. Zamboanga Del Norte
12. North Cotabato
13. Sultan Kudarat
14. Siquijor
15. Tawi-tawi
16. Negros Oriental
17. Camiguin
18. Davao del Norte
19. Misamis Oriental
20. Bukidnon
Combined Geophysical Risk Map:
Combined Climate- and Weather-Related Risk:

The aforementioned process for computing for risk was performed to map the risk to projected rainfall change,
risk to projected temperature increase, risk to typhoons and risk to El Niño-induced drought. A composite risk
map portraying the combined risk to all these climate- and weather-related disasters was obtained by summing
all the risk scores, as in the equation below:
RC = RTY + RRC + REL + RTI

where

RC = Risk to Climate/Weather-Related
Hazards
RTY = Risk to Typhoons
RRC = Risk to Rainfall Change
REL = Risk to El Niño
RTI = Risk to Temperature Increase

The results were again normalized

within a 100-point scale.

Summing the four individual risk scores

reveals that the areas most at risk to
climate- and weather-related risks in
general are Southeastern Luzon and
Eastern Visayas. This indicates that the
risk to typhoons and risk to projected
rainfall change dominate the sum. The
lower composite risk scores of
Mindanao likewise indicate that
although Mindanao has higher risk to
temperature increase and El Niño-
induced drought compared to other
areas, the difference in the scores is
not large.

The top 20 provinces at risk are:

1. Albay
2. Pampanga
3. Ifugao
4. Sorsogon
5. Biliran
6. Rizal
7. Northern Samar
8. Cavite
9. Masbate
10. Laguna
11. Batangas
12. Sulu
13. Western Samar
14. Nueva Ecija
15. Tarlac
16. Pangasinan
17. Basilan
18. Metro Manila
19. Camarines Sur
20. La Union
Exposure-related Details:
Vulnerability-related Details

Gross Value Added in Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry by Region (1999)

Poverty Gap:
Human Development Index (2000).

Provincialized Human Development Indices of the year 2000 was obtained from the Philippine Human
Development Report 2000 published by the UNDP and HDN. HDI encompasses health, education and income
factors. The inverse of the HDI represented the vulnerability score.
Important Findings Across Map Categories

National-scale mapping does not only serve to point out priority areas, but it also aids in the identification of
trends and themes across map categories that can be potentially correlated. Comparative spatial analyses of
maps yield commonalities and patterns that illuminate directions for further study.

1. COMBINED DISASTER RISK MAPS

a. Climate- and Weather-Related Maps

Among the climate- and weather-related risk maps, the Risk to Typhoons map and the Risk to Projected Rainfall
Change map have areas of Central Luzon and the Bicol region in common as high to very high risk areas. On
the other hand, the area that ranks high to very high in risk in both the Risk to El Niño and Risk to Projected
Temperature Increase maps is Western Mindanao.

The Combined Risk to Climate Disasters map represents the sum of the normalized, provincialized risks to
typhoon (super typhoons, typhoons, tropical storms and tropical depressions), drought caused by El Niño,
projected rainfall change and projected temperature increase. The top ten provinces are: Albay, Pampanga,
Ifugao, Sorsogon, Biliran, Rizal, Northern Samar, Cavite, Masbate, and Laguna. In general, Central Luzon and
the Bicol regions rank high to very-high on the risk scale. This indicates that it is the risk to typhoon scores and
risk to projected rainfall change scores that dominate the summation of risks. In the case of the risk to El Niño
scores and risk to projected temperature increase scores, the gap in the scores is between the highly-ranked
provinces and the rest of the country as not as great as with the other two maps.

b. Geophysical Maps

The maps of areas at risk to earthquakes and earthquake-induced landslides have certain areas of Central to
Northern Luzon and Eastern Mindanao in common. However, there are areas like Bukidnon and Lanao that
have a high risk to landslides but a low risk to earthquakes, indicating that there must be other factors
contributing to the occurrence of landslides in these areas. Areas at risk to both tsunamis and volcanic eruptions
include the northwest to southeast diagonal across RP. Given this similarity, the identification of factors that can
correlate volcanic eruptions and tsunamis can be subjected to further study.

The Geophysical Disaster Risk Map represents the sum of the normalized, provincialized risks to earthquakes,
earthquake-induced shallow landslides, tsunamis and volcanoes. The top ten provinces include: Sulu,
Camiguin, Ifugao, Davao Oriental, Sarangani, Benguet, Surigao del Sur, La Union, Lanao del Sur, and
Zambales. In general, Central Luzon and Eastern Mindanao are the high-ranking areas.

2. ANTHROPOGENIC MAPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DISASTER RISK MAPS

a. Land Use Map

i. Versus Climate Risk Map: areas in central Luzon, Bicol Region and Sulu islands that rank very high on the
combined risk to climate disasters map are primarily agricultural areas and coconut plantations. Thus, climate
disasters pose a risk not only to lives but also to livelihood. There is a need to measure the risk of climate
disasters to livelihood.

ii. Versus Geophysical Risk Maps: very high risk areas in central Luzon and eastern Mindanao are plantations
and dipterocarp forests, which also serve as a source of livelihood. Together with the slope map, it may be
advisable to further study the effect geophysical disturbances on livelihood in these regions.

b. Gross Value Added and Disaster Risk

The GVA maps represent an alternative method for quantifying the effect of disasters on livelihood. Comparative
analysis shows that areas at low risk to disasters like Palawan are also those with high GVA. These maps can
further be correlated with maps of ecological resources to ascertain of these areas rank high on the GVA solely
due to the low occurrence of disasters or due a combination of factors such as low occurrence of disasters
coupled with available ecological resources.

c. Heirarchy of Urban Centers Map

i. Versus Climate Risk Map: Provinces with the highest risk in central Luzon are also those with the most urban
centers. Assuming that most resources, telecommunication and transportation facilities are concentrated in
urban centers, the vulnerability of these regions can be reduced (hence, reducing risk). In future risk maps,
there is a need to factor in (1) the capability of each urban center to respond to disasters, and (2) the
surrounding provinces' access to urban centers quantified by location, slope, roads, transportation and
communication.

ii. Versus Geophysical Risk Map: The effect of having urban centers within high-risk areas is a double-sided
issue. On the one hand, urban centers can better respond to, for instance, medical needs in a time of disaster.
On the other hand, if the disaster in question is an earthquake or a landslide, then the presence of many
infrastructures within an urban center may actually compound the hazard. Collapsing buildings, ground
liquefaction and the like are the collateral hazards of having an earthquake in an urban center. Since the
available resources and infrastructures differ from one urban center to another, it is advisable to carry out future
risk analysis on a local scale.

3. ECOLOGICAL MAPS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DISASTER RISK MAPS

a. Integrated Marine and Terrestrial Priorities Map

Temperature and precipitation are said to be two major indicators of climate. Certain areas highly at risk to
projected temperature increase and rainfall change are also rank highly on the map of marine and terrestrial
priorities. It becomes relevant, therefore, to determine how the projected climate change may potentially affect
the country's ecosystems, particularly in areas of high marine and terrestrial priority. These maps can further be
correlated to the map of socio-economic pressures to determine in which areas the effects of climate change
may be potentially aggravated. Factors like changes in population and land use may affect the priority rankings
of marine and terrestrial resources.

b. Groundwater Availability
Comparing the map of groundwater availability to the map of risk to El Niño shows that areas in Mindanao which
are most at risk to induced drought actually possess productive aquifers that can possibly mitigate the effects of
El Niño.

c. Slope and Forest Cover

This map can be correlated to the map of landslides in the sense that areas with steeper slopes are expected to
be more at risk to landslides. It has been hypothesized that the presence of forest systems, although beneficial
in preventing excess runoff and flash floods during a typhoon, may actually contribute to the occurrence of
landslides due to the sheer weight of the vegetation.

d. Mapping Ecological Disaster Risks

Mining activities have historically been known to contribute towards water pollution. The map of mines shows
that several mining activities are located near major river basins or within critical watersheds. The R=HEV
framework can be used to map the risk of water contamination due to mining activities and other such ecological
disasters. It must be noted however, the occurrence of ecological disasters may be closely correlated the
geophysical and climate and weather-related disasters which may act as triggering mechanisms.