Analysis of Accidents On National Highways in Hilly Region

ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT ON NATIONAL
HIGHWAYS IN HILLY REGION
A DISSERTATION
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the award of the degree
of
MASTER OF TECHNOLOGY
in
CIVIL ENGINEERING
(With Specialization in Transportation Engineering)
By
S. C. LOONIYA
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY ROORKEE
ROORKEE - 247 667 (INDIA)
JUNE, 2007
CANDIDATE'S DECLARATION
I, hereby declare that the work presented in this dissertation entitled

"ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT ON NATOINAL HIGHWAYS IN
HILLY REGION" in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of
the degree of "Master of Technology" in civil engineering with
specialization in "Transportation Engineering" submitted in department
of civil engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, is an
authentic record of my own work carried out from August 2006 to June
2007, under the supervision of Dr M.P.S. Chauhan, Lecturer,
Transportation Engineering Group and Dr. M. Parida, Associate Professor,
Transportation Engineering Group, Department of Civil Engineering I.I.T.
Roorkee.
The matter embodied in the dissertation has not been submitted by me for
the award of any other degree or diploma.
Date: June 28, 2007 (S.C.LOONJYA)
CERTIFICATE
This is to certify that the above statement made by the candidate is correct to
the best of my knowledge.
Or2 cket,aLlin.
Dr. M. Parma Dr. M. P. S. Chauhan
Associate Professor Lecturer
Transportation Engineering Group Transportation Engineering Group
Department of Civil Engineering Department of Civil Engineering
Roorkee, Roorkee,
Roorkee-247667. (India) Roorkee-247667. (India)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I feel privileged in extending my earnest obligation, deep sense of gratitude,

appreciation and honour to Dr. M. P. S. Chauhan, lecturer Transportation Engineering
Group and Dr. M. Parida, Associate Professor, Transportation Engineering Group,
Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee for their kind
help, timely suggestions and constant encouragement for successful completion of this
work in time.
I express my sincere gratitude to faculty members Prof. S.S. Jain, Prof. Satish
Chandra, Dr. Parveen Kumar and Dr. Rajat Rastogi for their kind cooperation, teaching
and guidance through out the M. Tech. course.
I wish to express my sincere gratitude to Director General Border Roads for
giving me an opportunity for undergoing M. Tech. course. I am also thankful to officers
and staffs of B.R.O. for giving me help for collection of data kind help and assistance for
preparation of this report..
Lastly but not the least the assistance and moral encouragement received from my
family and friends and specially my son Surnit Kumar is greatly acknowledged.
Place: Roorkee
Date: 27th June, 2007 (S C Looniya)
iii
ABSTRACT
The increasing number of road accident on National Highways, which constitute

about 2% of the total road network accounts for 1/3rd of the total fatalities. On Indian
roads, the traffic is heterogeneous in nature with a large percentage of slow moving
vehicles, in absence of pedestrian facilities; the pedestrians are forced to use the
carriageway. Lack of enforcement and disregard to the traffic rules further leads towards
deteriorating scenario of road accidents. The road accidents cause 1% loss of the total
GDP in addition to losses the society and individual suffer in terms of pain , human loss
disability and mental agony.
In hilly regions the road accident scenario is further gloomy due to various
obvious reasons. Some of the reasons for accidents in hills are narrow roads, steep
slope/gradient, hairpin bends, narrow and sharp curves, presence of valley/ river at one
side of the road, poor visibility in winter, monsoon, landslides, width/type of shoulder,
pavement surface, maintenance standard etc.
It is always important to examine the influence of the road, the vehicle and the
road user and their interaction which results in accidents. In hilly roads the same factor
are responsible for accident so it is important to study them and to analyze how they
interact. This interaction is always present, even when one factor appears to be pre-
dominant.
The various measures ensuring road safety including THREE E's i.e.
Engineering, Enforcement and Education are to be studied at least to minimize if not
possible to avoid the accident completely and reduce the severity of accidents.
Comprehensive review of literature was carried out for the factors and interaction of
these, responsible for accidents which are directly related to hill roads or can be useful in
the study of accident on hill roads.
Section of National Highway No 58 from Rishikesh to Rudraprayag falls in a
hilly region was selected for study. The highway runs along left bank of the River Ganga
upto Kirtinagar and hereafter on right bank. This highway is having utmost stretigic
iv
importance to provide logistic support to troops deployed on Indo Tibet border. The
highway also connects important religious and adventure spot of the state. The tourism is
a major source of income of the people of this area. The accidents on the road attract
more attention because of tourists visiting from all over the part of country and abroad.
Accident analysis was carried for the accidents occurred during the period of last
five years and analyzed by Babkov Coefficient and Speed index method. Correlation has
been developed for Accident frequency (AF) with Babkov' coefficient and Speed Index .
Modeling of accidents was also done using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique.
The output of ANN network with least square error was chosen as the best network.
Remedial measures have been suggested for accident prone stretches.
CONTENTS
Page No.
CANDIDATE'S DECLARATION (ii)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT (iii)
ABSTRACT (iv)
LIST OF TABLES (ix)
LIST OF FIGURES (x)
CHAPTER 1 : INTRODUCTION
1.1 General 1
1.2 Global Scenario of Accident 2
1.3 Accident Situation in India 3
1.4 Hill Road 7
1.5 Study Objective 8
1.6 Study Area 9
1.7 Composition of Report 9
CHAPTER 2 : LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 The Roads Characteristics 12
2.2 Driver Characteristics 22
2.3 Climatic Conditions 25
2.4 Vehicle 26
2.5 Studies on Analysis of Road Accidents 26
2.6 Accident Counter-Measures 30
2.7 Artificial Neural Network (ANN) 37
2.8 Work Done at IIT Roorkee 38
(vi)

CHAPTER 3 : METHODOLOGY ADOPTED

3.1 General 42
3.2 Geometric Parameters of the Road 42
3.3 Vertical Alignment 47
3.4 Sight Distance Consideration 48
3.5 Pavement Surface Characteristics 49
3.6 Traffic Volume Count 49
3.7 Journey Speed Study 49
3.8 Method for Black-Spot Identification 50
3.9 Artificial Neural Network 51
CHAPTER 4 : DATA COLLECTION

4.1 General 54
4.2 Description of Study Area 54
4.3 Primary Data Collection 55
4.4 Site Selection 56
4.5 Traffic Volume Count 56
4.6 Data Collected for Babkov Coefficients 56
4.7 Journey Speed Study 56
4.8 Traffic Accident Data 56
CHAPTER 5 : DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULT

5.1 Pre-Processing of Data 59
5.2 Model Approach for Analysis of Accidents 65
CHAPTER 6 : REMEDIAL MEASURES FOR HILLY SECTION OF NH-58

6.1 General 75
6.2 Causes of Accident 75
6.3 Accident Prevention and Reduction 75
6.4 Engineering Measures 76
6.5 Effect of Roadway Conditions on Traffic Safety 76
6.6 Traffic Service Facilities 77
6.7 Traffic Signs and Marking 78
6.8 Guardrails and Parapets 81
6.9 Road Safety Barrier 83
6.10 Traffic Safety at Night 84
6.11 Constraints Imposed on Highway Users 86
6.12 Estimating Safety Benefits of Road Improvements 87
6.13 Benefit Cost Analysis 87
CHAPTER 7 : CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1 Conclusion on Factors Responsible for Accidents 91
7.2 Conclusion Based on Analysis of Accident 92
7.3 Recommendations 92
REFERENCES 94
APPENDICES
LIST OF TABLES
Table No. Description Page No.

1.1 Total Number of Registered Motor Vehicles in India 1951— 4
2003
1.2 Road Accidents in India, 1970-2004 5
2.1 Summary of Geometric Roadway Characteristics Found to 13
Affect Truck Safety
2.2 Relationship of Speed and Degree of Curvature 19
2.3 Models and Variables 39
3.1 Widths of Carriageway, Shoulder and Roadway 43
3.2 Desirable Road Land Widths (meter) 44
3.3 Design Speed (km/h) 48
4.1 Salient Features of Existing Road in Study Area 54
4.2 Classified Traffic Volume Data 58
5.1 Details of Accidents Year-Wise 59
5.2 Distribution of Accidents by Mode of Transport 61
5.3 Accident Prone Section as per Babkov Method 66
5.4 Bridge Location Prone to Accident 67
5.5 Accident Prone Section by Speed Index Method 67
5.6 Details of Network Trials 71
5.7 Details of Network Test Results 72
6.1 Cost of Protection Works 88
6.2 Estimate of Benefit Cost due to Provision of Protection Works 89
ix
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure Description Page No.

No.
1.1 Deaths Per 10000 Vehicles Per Year 3
1.2 Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in India 1951-2003 4
1.3 Road Accident Statistics of India 1970-2004 6
1.4 Indian and Global Road Safety Trend 6
1.5 Elements of a Roadway 7
1.6 Classification of Terrain 7
1.7 View of a Hill Road (km 373-377 NH-58) 8
1.8 Study Area 11
2.1 Classification of accidents According to Causes 12
2.2 Rates of Related Accidents by Lane and Shoulder Width in 15
the Illinois and Minnesota Data Bases
2.3 Relative Number of Accidents and the Relative Values of 15
GSR Curves with Decreasing the Radius
2.4 Remedy for Accidents at Bends 16
2.5 Circulation of Transition Bend 16
2.6 Relation Between Speed and Horizontal Curvature 18
2.7 Relation Between Speed and Minimum Sight Distance on 19
Horizontal Curves
2.8 Speeds on Various Upgrades 22
2.9 Casualty Rates for Rural Areas : Private Vehicles with 24
Male Drivers
2.10 Violations Per 1000 Drivers per Year by Type and Age 24
2.11 Interaction Between the Environmental Demands and 25
Driver Performance Levels
2.12 Comparison of Deprived and Non-deprived Groups on Eye 25
Closure
2.13 Test Vehicle Impact at the Road Restraint System 32
2.14 Deformation of the Road Restraint System 32
2.15 Main Barrier Parts and Some Reinforcements 33
2.16 The Barrier Deformation during Large Scale Test (top) and 33
Simulation (bottom)
2.17 Types of Guardrail According to Rigidness 34
3.1 Road Land & Cross Sectional Elements of Hill Road 43
3.2 Hair Pin Bend 46
3.3 Passing Places on Single Lane Highway 47
3.4 A Typical Neural Network 53
4.1 Index Map 55
5.1 Distribution of Accidents by Year-wise 59
5.2 Distribution of Accident by Month-wise 60
5.3 Distribution of Accidents by Day-wise 60
5.4 Distribution of Accidents by Vehicle-wise 62
5.5 Distribution of Accidents by Time of Day 63
5.6 Distribution of Accidents by Cause 63
5.7 Distribution of Accidents by Age of Drivers 64
5.8 Distribution of Accidents by Area of Drivers 64
5.9 Distribution of Accidents by Type of Accidents 65
5.10 Correlations between Babkov Coefficient Accident/Km. 68
5.11 Correlations between Babkov Coefficient Accident/Km. 69
(Narrow Bridge)
5.12 Correlation between SI and AF 70
5.13 Test Trial 1 73
6.1 Typical Design of Object Marker 78
6.2 Typical Design of Hazard Marker 79
6.3 Typical Design of Roadway Delineators 80
6.4 Parapet Walls 81
6.5 Typical Design of Railings 82
6.6 Layout of Crash Barriers, Parapet Walls & Guard Stone on 82
Ground
6.7 View of "W" Beam Safet Barrier in Stud Area 84
6.8 Typical Design of Various Delineators 85
6.9 Details of Accident Before & After Study 90
xi
CHAPTER —1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 General
The spectacular growth in the road transportation sector in India has been a key
element in the country's economic development. This growth has also led to the
deterioration of the road traffic environment due to increased congestion, environment
pollution and road accidents and further leading temporarily reducing the capacity of
network. Often road accidents cause property damage, human injuries and even human
death and can be defined as a collision of a moving vehicle on a public road in which a
road user (human or animal) is injured.
In India more than 80,000 people are killed and nearly 400,000 persons are
injured in about 300,000 road accidents every year (30). The economic loss to the society
on account of road accidents is estimated to be about US$ 600 million every year (30).
The number of accidents in India is basically attributed to the growth of motor
vehicles, inadequate road infrastructure, near absence of flyovers and subways to
eliminate conflicts, absence of motorways and expressways, heterogeneity of vehicles on
Indian roads, poor road surface condition due to paucity of funds, lack of traffic
education, traffic culture etc. To deteriorate the matter further, there are deficiencies in
the vehicle design, its poor maintenance, bad driving habits, lack of enforcement and
casual attitude of road users and the concerned agencies towards the basic tenets of road
safety (41).
India has a dubious distinction of a nation with about 8 — 10 % of world's road
accidents deaths. Although there is no dearth of technologies that can be made available
for managing traffic for safety, but the traffic is in shambles in cities as well as in sub
urban / non urban roads. Condition is further deteriorates in case of safety on roads in
hilly areas. This status of road safety is completely linked to the population which is
illiterate on road use, including those who are officially called literate. The road safety
status is generally the reflection of the traffic culture and it is extremely poor in India.
Accidents are first treated as the act of God, and sweepingly attributed to fault of the
1
driver of the motor vehicle. When two motor vehicles are involved in an accident, the
bigger vehicle is considered to be at fault. This whole perception of road safety is
erroneous; incompatibility of various road users' behaviors leads to the accidents. The
way of accident data is collected in India so far, is nothing than a farce. Because, the
reporting itself is incomplete due to avoidance of public for the fear of the tortuous
procedures, only the fatal accidents are probably fully reported, but this data is also
biased towards the requirements of legal proceeding. The FIR (First Information Report)
is a police record without any information which can be used for analyzing and
reconstructing the accidents for finding the exact causes. Thus, all the data available in
India are a total waste in terms of road safety record. Even the exact location of the
accident with kilometer and meter position along the road is not recorded in FIR.
For analysis of accident and to make a countermeasure by adopting a scientific
approach meaningful data capture for accident record covering all type of accidents, by a
fully trained independent team of experts (other than traffic police) should collect the
data an accident site using all modern facilities of GIS/GPS and further analysis and
transfer the findings or recommendation on ground can improve the road safety on roads..
1.2 Global Scenario of Accident

Road accidents have been identified as a major cause of death and disability
across the world. About 1.17 million persons killed and more than 50 million are being
injured in road accidents every year through out the world. Almost 11% of the world
reported fatalities are due to road accidents. It is estimated that by the year 2020 it will be
a major cause of premature deaths in the world (17).
Detailed analysis of the global accident statistics by the UK Transport Road
Research Laboratory (TRRL) indicate that fatality rate per licensed vehicle in developing
countries is very high, very often 20 to 30 times greater than in the European or
developed countries. The developed countries in the world have maximum number of
automobiles yet the deaths per 10000 vehicles are much less than that of developing
countries as is evident from the statistics shown in Fig 1.1 (17).
2
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250.0
0
0
t 200 0 i
8
g 150 0 '
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F_ 100.0 00
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Fig 1.1 Deaths per 10000 vehicles per year
1.3 Accident Situation in India

The growth of road transportation in India has been a key element for economic
development. India has one of the longest networks of road length of 3.34 million
kilometers. The road length consists of 66,590 km NH's (2%), 1,28,000- km SH's
(4%),4,70,000 km MDR's (14%) and 26,50,000 km ODR's & VR's (80%) (17). Fig 1.2
shows the growth of registered motor vehicles in India. In India 92,543 persons died and
4,64,583 injured in 4,29,800 road accidents during the year 2004 (16). There was an
accident in every 73 seconds and every 6 minute one person died during 2004. The
average annual growth of road accident at national level is 0.6% during last eight years
(22). Fig. 1.3 gives the road accident statistics of India. (16). Further more accident rate
in comparison to other countries is more as shown in Fig 1.4. If the same trend will
continue than we will be leading in the accident causality on highways in the world (Fig.
1.4).
3
Table 1.1 : Total Number of Registered Motor Vehicles in India 1951-2003
Year All Two Cars, Buses Goods Others*

(As Vehicles Wheelers Jeeps Vehicles
on3lst and Taxis
March)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1951 306 27 159 34 82 4
1961 665 88 310 57 168 42
1971 1865 576 682 94 343 170
1981 5391 2618 1160 162 554 897
1991 21.374 14200 2954 331 1356 2533
1996 33786 23252 4204 449 2031 3850
1997 37332 25729 4672 484 2343 4104
1998 41368 28642 5138 538 2536 4514
1999 44875 31328 5556 540 2554 4897
2000 48857 34118 6143 562 2715 5319
2001 54991 38556 7058 634 2948 5795
2002 (R) 58924 41581 7613 635 2974 6121
2003 (P) 67033 47525 8619 727 3488 6674
(in thousands) updated on 13.06.05
Growth of Motor Vehicles
80000 -
70000 -
60000 -
50000
40000 - Number of Motor
30000 - Vehicles
20000 -
10000
0
N- CO CY) 0 I-- C\I Ce)
tf) CO N. CO 0) 0) 0) 0) 0) 0 a CD CD
CY) 0) 0) 0) a) 01 0) 05 0) 0 0 0 a
N N CN1 N
Year
Fig. 1.2 Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in India 1951-2003
4
Table 1.2 : Road Accidents in India, 1970-2004
(Data Relates to Calendar Year) (In thousands)
Year Road Accidents Persons Killed Persons Injured
1970 114.1 14.5 70.1
1971 120.2 15.0 70.7
1972 122.3 16.1 76.4
1973 121.6 17.6 79.3
1974 114.3 17.3 76.7
1975 116.8 16.9 77.0
1976 124.7 17.8 82.5
1977 135.4 20.1 95.6
1978 146.3 21.8 99.5
1979 144.4 22.6 102.9
1980 153.2 24.6 109.1
1981 161.2 28.4 114.0
1982 166.2 30.7 126.0
1983 177.0 32.8 134.1
1984 195.0 35.1 156.2
1985 207.0 39.2 163.4
1986 215.5 40.0 176.4
1987 234.0 44.4 189.0
1988 246.7 46.6 214.8
1989 270.0 50.7 229.7
1990 282.6 54.1 244.1
1991 293.4 56.4 255.0
1992 260.3 57.2 267.2
1993 280.1 60.7 287.8
1994 320.4 64.0 311.5
1995 348.9 70.6 323.2
1996 371.2 74.6 369.5
1997 373.7 77.0 378.4
1998 385.0 79.9 390.7
1999 386.4 82.0 375.0
2000 391.4 78.9 399.3
2001 405.6 80.9 405.2
2002 407.5 84.7 408.7
5
2003 406.7 86.0 435.1
2004 (P) 429.8 92.5 464.6
(P): Provisional ■■■
Source : Data received from States/UTs.
500 - 500
450 it/A- 450
Persons killed1 Injuredin Thousands

400 - 400
Accidents in Thousands
350 - - 350
300 -- - 300
250 - - 250
200 - - 200
150 - 150
100 -- 4- 100
50 50
0
O ga— S.'S set 05 ;32 .74 .os ga.
OS Oa 00.0 0, OS Of 0, 02 O'S 01 01 Of 0,
OD A SO 01
op os 0, Of Os OS 01
Cf. Oa 01 elo 0, Os 0,
0
Year
ar
Total No of accidents in Thousands Total No of Persons Killed in Thousands

Total No of Persons Injured in Thousands
Fig. 1.3 Road Accident Statistics of India 1970-2004
Percent (.7.1-ians4e in Accident$

250
—+-- Developed (...:ou nt ries
Latin Anaerica,
200 --0— NfiLldle East, North Africa
Asia, Pacific
Atvica
150 --is-- India
100
50
Figure 1.4 Indian and Global Road Safety Trends
6
1.4 Hill Road
1.4.1 General
Hill road is a road passing through mountainous or steep terrain. As in the case of
other roads, hill road may be classified in India as per IRC: 52-1981, (19) as one of the
following:
(a) National Highways
(b) State Highways
(c) Major District roads
(d) Other District roads or Village roads.
Elements of a roadway in hills in side hill cut or box cut and classification of
terrain are depicted in Figs 1.5 & 1.6 respectively. (18)
ROADWAY
.....,—
SHOULDER -.,....1
t (CARRIAGEWAY 1-
HILL
CROSS FALL
SIDE DRAIN
VALLEY
(a) SIDE HILL CUT
ROADWAY
il-cAR
— SHROAUG
LE
DEw
CAMBER
SIDE DRAIN
(b) BOX CUT
Fig. 1. Elements of a Roadway Fig. 1.6. Classification of Terrain
1.4.2 Accident in hill roads
Driving in hills, especially in adverse and severe weather condition is a difficult

task than in plains. Reasons of accident in hilly roads are serpentine curves, steep grades,
and blindness in horizontal and vertical curves, steep terrain, and hazards of rolling stone,
landslide, and extreme climate conditions. Fig.1.7 shows the view a of hill road km 480 -
484 on NH — 58.
7
Fig. 1.7 View of a Hill Road (km. 480 - 484 on NH- 58)
Although, the density of road network, population and vehicle in hilly states is
less compared to other states of plains but, death rate due to the accident is high in hilly
states. This is may be due to involvement of passenger buses in accidents and chances of
survival in hilly roads are very less.
1.5 Study Objectives
Accidents in hilly road is a complex function of many factors, including those

associated with physical aspects of roadway, and many other factors related to driver,
vehicle, traffic and environmental conditions. In succeeding chapters these aspects
causing accidents are studied in details.
The accident analysis literature is quite extensive. Several studies have examined
the major parameters that affect traffic accidents and suggested countermeasures for
improving safety. It appears that road accidents are complex events influenced by a
variety of factors such as road geometry, pavement condition, traffic level, and existing
safety measures. A thorough accident analysis should ideally consider all or as many
parameters as possible. However, this is practically difficult due to the inability to isolate
the effect of each parameter. As a result, accident studies have typically examined few
parameters of the problem. In addition, although there is general agreement upon the
major factors affecting traffic accidents, different studies have not always provided
8
consistent results. Even within the same study, results may not be in agreement across
test sites as per Hughes et al. (2001) and this may be attributed to key differences among
sites such as road geometry and roadside environment or to differences in design practice.
Therefore, research results may not be directly transferred across application sites.
1.6 Study Area
The road stretch Rishikesh Rudraprayag part of NH-58 running in hilly region is
selected for study. This is the only one motorable route to link the famous holy shrine of
Kedarnath, Hemkund Sahib, and lord Badrinath and also tourist spots like Auli and valley
of flower and other National park, Sanctuaries are also connected by this road. The road
is also important inview of strategist requirement of country. The road is in Garhwal
hills of Himalayan mountain. The road up to Kirtinagar is running along the right bank of
river Ganga /Alaknanda and up to Rudraprayag and further running mostly along the left
bank of river Alaknanda. During yatra season to holy shrines and adventures tours to
valley of flower, National parks and Sanctuaries, tourist from several part of the World
travels on the road. The accidents on the road are of great concern as it is adversely affect
tourism and economy of state of Uttarakhand. Study area along with other important
feature is shown in Fig 1.8.
1.7 Composition of Report

Research on road safety began on a substantial scale in second half of nineteenth
century. The gradual growth in complexity in analysis of accident and need improvement
of the road safety increase the necessity to use models and theories. To develop such
models for road accidents various traffic variables and their effects are to be known and
this has been discussed in the succeeding part of study.
In Chapter 2 it is tried to trace a number of studies on different parameters of
roads, drivers, environmental conditions and vehicular characteristics that are cause of
accident in hilly roads. In addition to the method to identify the accident prone stretches
or points are studied. Work done in IIT Roorkee on accident analysis on National
Highways also referred. The various researches done on the safety guard-rails inn
past have also been reviewed.
9
Chapter 3 is dealt with the methodology adopted for analysis accident on
highways including Babkov Coefficient method, Speed index method and modeling by
using Artificial Neural Network have been done.
In chapter 4 collections of data and various parameters have been discussed in
brief.
In chapter 5 preliminary processing of data carried out. Similarly data have been
analysis by using methodology discussed in chapter 4. Correlation between accident
frequency and various parameters has been dealt.
Chapter 6 consists of protective works proposed for reeducation of accident
scenario on hill roads. A before and after study of accident data for the stretch where
double lane work has been completed. Similarly cost — benefit analysis for the work
proposed and their impact has also been discussed.
Chapter 7 gives the conclusions and recommendations of the study and further
area of study.
10

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Fig 1.8 Study Area a showing major obligatory points
11
CHAPTER — 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
General
Accident analysis and presentation are the most important aspect of transportation
studies, as these are associated with human life. In this chapter, literature review for the
studies conducted for factors affecting the accidents has been carried out.
The causes of accident and possible interaction among these can be broadly
grouped under the following categories (Fig 2.1) (30).
Road Environment Driver

Related Factors Related Factors
(3) 41)
(6)
Vehicle
Related Factors
(2)
Fig. 2.1 Classification of Accident. According to Causes
2.1 The Roads Characteristics
The most general characteristics of roads affecting the accidents are discussed in
as under:
2.1.1 Road, lane width and shoulders type

A number of studies were conducted to quantify the accident rate relationship
with different parameters of road. The summary of various studies given by Stewart
Robertson & Lisa Aullman (28) is presented in Table 2.1.
12
Table 2.1 Summary of Geometric Roadway Characteristics Found to Affect Truck
Safety
'S
Vogt & Bared

CI
Minou et al.
Pigman and
=
Agent and
0
. ... >1 c47).
Burnham
CA
Wright &
1... ct .✓
Pigman
Joshua
Garber
7::,
Agent
4(5 :.
5 -0 1.-). E .
C al E4 as Zi
v 0 6. =
CD Z`l a 0
C-.)
Horizontal curvature * * * * * *
Sight Distance * *
Intersection Radii *
Bridges *
Grade * *
Lane Width * * * * *
Shoulders * * * *
Slope Change Rate *
Vertical Curvature *
C.E.Billion & Walter R. Stohner (5) also carried out detailed study of accident
related to highway shoulders. The accident indices for various shoulder widths under
different alignment conditions are given as. under:
(i) Medium width shoulders had lower accident indices then narrow shoulders under
all condition of horizontal and vertical alignment. Whereas wide shoulders had
lower accident indices than narrow or medium width shoulder on poor alignment
(ii) Alignment had more effect on accident than shoulder width. Regardless of
shoulder width, the accident indices indicated that grade over 5%, curve over 5
degree, and combination of grade and curves, had 2.4, 6.3 and 9.5 times
respectively, the accident frequency of level tangents.
13
Another study performed by Charles V. Zegeer et al.(7) to quantify the effects of
lane and shoulder width on accidents on rural roads carrying fewer than 2000 vehicles per
day. After analysis of the data the following were found (Fig 2.2);
(i) Accident rates on paved, low-volume roads are significantly reduced by wider
roadway width, improved roadside conditions. No differences in accident rates were
found on roads with paved shoulders in comparison with the rates on roads with
unpaved shoulders. Accident rates are most highly correlated with lane and shoulder
widths for single-vehicle and opposite-direction accidents.
(ii) For roads with lane widths of 3.1 m (10 ft), shoulders of 1.5 m (5 ft) or greater are
needed to reduce accident rates. For roads with lane widths of 3.4 and 3.7 m (11 and
12 ft), shoulder width of at least 0.9 m (3 ft) results in significant accident reductions
in comparison to roads with narrower shoulders.. For a combination of reasons there
is no apparent benefit in terms of reducing the number of accidents from widening of
lanes from 2.7 m (9 ft) to 3.1 m (10 ft) unless shoulders of 1.5 m (5 ft) or more are
also added. Indeed the study produced evidence that existing roads with 2.7-m (9 ft)
lanes with narrow or wide shoulders are preferable to roads with 3.1 m (10 ft) lanes
with narrow shoulders, perhaps because of lower vehicle speeds on roads with 2.7m
(9 ft) lanes and thus lower numbers of accidents.
(iii)Accident experience does not appear to be significantly different for unpaved versus
paved roadway surfaces at traffic volume of 250 vpd or less. At traffic volume greater
than this, accident rates are significantly greater for unpaved roadway than for paved
roadway, all else being equal. Therefore, paving of rural roads with traffic volumes of
250 or more vpd will generally improve their safety.
2.1.2 Horizontal curves
About 30% of all accidents on rural road occur at bends. Accident at the bends has
been very frequent despite appropriate warning signs and marking. Prof V. F. Babkov (2)
studied the effect of radius of curvature and number of accidents; same is shown in Fig.
2.3. He also introduced a galvanic skin response (GSR) term which is drivers' emotional
strains in different situations. It was observed that the greater the radius of curvature less
the accidents
1.4
11F1.,1int A CCIDENTS MAO
ACCIDENT RATE
1 $ -
0S-
SHOULDER
WIDTH (FT)
LANE
WIDTH (FT)
ft
Fig. 2.2 Rates of Related Accidents by Lane and Shoulder Width in the Illinois and
Minnesota Data Bases
To investigate the remedy for accident at bends effect of circular and transition
curve was analyzed by Douglas Steward & Christopher J (10). They found for safe and
hazardous bends, the main difference between them was not their curvature was longer or
small but whether it was constant or variable. Initially bends normally had constant
curvature i.e. they were circular arcs, but nowadays, a bend usually comprises two types
of curve as given in Fig. 2.4 a transition curve at entry followed by a Circular curve, than
another transition curve at exit.
8
14
RELATIV E NUMBEROF ACCIDENTS
V
12 1:1
to
10 60
•
• a
• •
. 0
v • nr
0 •
91.• 0
0
4
• n.
. du
• -40.0 13 0V a0
• 0 •
• I.
. er„ —...-itcri__,
__
0
40 80 120 1000 20 00 30 00
RADIUS OF HORIZONTAL CURVES,m RADIUS OF HORIZONTAL CURVES,rn
( a) (b)
Fig. 2.3 Relative Numbers of Accidents and the Relative Values of GSR Curves
With Decreasing the Radius
15
(a) Changing GSR
Qg — GSR on straight section
QE GSR on curve
(b) Relative number of accidents (by different marks, the data of different
authors is shown)
Original transition curve

VEHICLE PATHS
• Theoretical
— -- Preferred Circular curve
— Accident
Fig. 2.4 Remedy for Accidents at Bends Fig. 2.5 Circulation of Transition Bend
The transition curve was recommended for road design as early as 1908 by the
first International Road Congress to reduce the abruptness of change from a straight line
to curve. As per railway engineering concept of transition curve was introduced to
produce a gradual change in curvature and therefore in centrifugal acceleration. As rail
road trains must follow the precise alignment of the track and the discomfort (negotiating
a bend) can be avoided by using easement (transition) curve. However, in road maneuver;
the motor vehicle drivers are free to alter his lateral position on curve by steering into
circular curve gradually.
It was generally considered that a road vehicle follow the line of a bend just a
train does. But driver cut the corner (Fig.2.4 preferred path), maneuver commended as
good driving practice because it increase cornering radius and visibility distance, and
hence safety. Deviation tends to be greatest if the acute bend is in transitional, probably
because this strategy reduces the need of rapid changes in direction and also improve
perception of the curve. The transitional curve encourages the lateral movement.
To try to overcome this problem of drives deviating from the line of the road it
has been suggested that curve design should be based on driver's actual path. But, this
16
should be self defeating due to tendencies of driver to shift laterally on circulation of
transitional bends (Fig. 2.5). D. Steward & Christopher J. suggested it is preferable to
eliminate deception by minor realignment to create uniform or circular curvature. They
also studied other factors on horizontal curve and observations are as under:
Direction of travel
The left hand transitions were more dangerous than right hand due to greater
difficulty in perceiving curvature correctly if driving on the inside of the bend. In
countries with right hand rule of the road, it would be expected that these directional
biased would reverse.
Tyre adhesion
Centrifugal force due to excessive cornering speed is resisted primarily by
adhesion between tyre and road, so it is to be expected that bend accidents will be more
prevalent on wet roads.
Effect of road signs on horizontal curve
Signs can give only a simple warning of the presence on a bend and they cannot
help a driver to perceive, whether a bend is circular or transitional. By providing vertical
axis information (gradient information) in addition to hazards curve sharpness reduces
the accident rates.
In another study carried out by IOWA (11) found that the crash rate on horizontal
curve is 1.5 to 4 times higher than the crash rate on highway tangents. The degree of
curve has an impact on the safety at the curve. Crash rates increase as the degree of curve
increases; even when traffic warning devices are used to warn motor drivers.
Driver's performance on horizontal curve having minimum sight distance from
200 feet (60 m) to 655 feet (200 m) and curvature from 3 to 29 degree was studied by A
Taragin (1) with different parameters is given as under:
Relation between sight distance and curvature
As a general tendency, as should be expected for the flatter, curves to have the
greater minimum sight distance. On an average for each 100 feet change in sight distance
there appears to be a change of about 3 degree in curvature.
17
Speeds as related to degree of curvature
The speeds at which drivers operated on the curves of various degrees are shown
by Fig. (2.6). Separate curves are shown for the average speed, 90 and the 95 percentile
speed. The relation of vehicle speed in mile per hour and degree of curvature is tabulated
in Table. 2.2. The high coefficient of correlation as found for these equations indicates
that operating speeds are closely related to the degree of curvature. The average speed is
lowered by 3 mph for each 4 degree that the curvature increases and the 95 percentile
speed is lowered by 1 mph for each 1 degree increase in curvature.
70 '
60 [
........ r ......--- SAFE SPEED BASED ON CURVATURE
.... ''''ks
..... ...... \.., .. AND SUPERELEVATION
50 ..._ .. .......
cc
-...., ,:z.,...........4,-.. _ 95-P ERCENTILE SPEED
O 30-PERCENTILE SPEED
.....„..... -PERCENTI'LE
cc 40 -..........\,_ --......
AVERAGE SPEED ' -"*"• s'"'":"......z
.` ,
a. ••:::„.••■
• 30 .."•... ....::::- Zs,-:,......
-7"'"'• ■•,,
•■
• .......
eS
eS 20
LU
•a. 10
0
4 B 12 16 20 24 2a 32
CURVATURE—DEGREES
Fig. 2.6 Relation between Speed and Horizontal Curvature
Coefficient of side friction

Coefficient of side friction develops on the horizontal curve was determined and
given by following relation;
f= 0.067 V2
R
Where f = Coefficient of side friction

V = Speed miles/hr
R = Radius of curve, feet
S = Super-elevation, feet/foot
18
Speed as related to minimum side distance
Driver performance on horizontal curves is such that when the minimum sight
distance is 400 feet(120 m) or longer, few drivers exceed what can be considered a safe
speed, regardless of which of the commonly employed factors are used in computing
stopping distance. With the shorter sight distances, however, most of the drivers stay
within a speed from which they could come to a stop within the available sight distance
(Fig. 2.7)
7 I I 1
AASHO NON-PASSING I
MINIMUM SIGHT DISTANCE S-PERCENTILE
6 k Atic. it- spew
l.941°
„Alle - 1°PePi
cENT44
5
-fsirgIz--
cc
,- - --
-',0 "... --- •""
' °'°,Z06 LANE
---10—
i'" AVERAGE
,,%.1'
.. ,• • SPEED
oUT SIDE
0 "
ii/e,,
i, '
a 3
8: i -\
'/1
20
6
a. 10
UI
00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

MINIMUM SIGHT DISTANCE-FEET
Fig. 2.7 Relation between Speed and Minimum Sight Distance on Horizontal
Curves
G. Kanellaidis et al. studied driver's behavior on rural road curves and the same is
given below (14).
Table 2.2 Relationships of Speed and Degree of Curvature
Speed Equation Standard error Coefficient of
(adjustment mph) correlation
(adjustment)
Average Va = 40.26 — 0.746D 3.15 0.819
90 — percentile V90 = 55.22 — 0.909D 3.29 0.858
95 — percentile V95 = 58.46 — 1.000D 3.51 0.863
The prediction of the 85th percentile car curve speed on the basis of degree of
curvature was given in the form:
19
V85 = 109 .085 — 3837.554 (1/R) (1)
By considering Vt- (desired speed) which is dependent of other geometry parameters also
i.e. super elevation, super elevation rate (m/m), lane width (m). shoulder width (m),
shoulder width (m), grade magnitude (%) V85 was given in the form;
V85 = 17.4 - 3244.8 (1/R) + 114078 (1/R)2 + 0.85 Vf (2)

Y2 = 0.919
2.1.3 Vertical curve

Accidents tend to occur at crests and near the bottom of downgrade. This is
probably due to not only to restricted sight distance but also to speed difference induced
by gradients. Upgrade on highway can cause vehicles to lose speeds depending upon the
steepness, length, slope and the power to weight ratio of vehicle. The usual remedy is to
provide extra or more passing places so that slow moving traffic can be overtaken on the
upgrades, width double line lane marking to overtaking near the crest. Combination of
vertical and horizontal curves sometimes produces visually deceptive conditions which
constitute hazards. There is evidence that accident rates are higher when horizontal
curvature coincides with vertical crest or sags or when points occurs are cited on sharp
curves. (12)
2.1.4 Terrain
Highways in mountainous and steep terrain pose a number of special problems for
motor vehicle operators and that may be more critical for large commercial vehicles.
Among the most serious of these is possibility of brake failure, steering locking / failure
on long steep downgrade and on horizontal curve. In such situation vehicle gets
accelerate uncontrollably due to the steep gradient, endangering not only the life of driver
but also the occupants of vehicle, another vehicle of highway and occupants' thereof,
peoples and properties on adjacent / foot of the downgrade highway. Most of the crashes
in hilly terrain involved single vehicle, but these are more severe. (22)
20
2.1.5 Grades
Survey of operations and effects of grade on operation and performance of heavy
vehicle was studied by W.E. Willey, followings were observed; (33 & 34).
(a) Uphill grade

As nearly as could be determined with the instruments at hand and technique
applied there was no great difference in speed performance of heavy vehicles at
elevations from sea level to over 7000 ft. However, in addition to condition of
vehicle habit, experience and skill of drivers also affect speed and performance
of vehicle. Speed pattern on various grades is given in Fig 2.8. (33).
(b) Downhill grade
Traffic congestion on narrow 2-lane roads was an important cause of reduced
truck speeds on contrast to uphill speeds which are determined by the hill
climbing ability of the trucks. Except under conaested traffic conditions it may be
said that downhill speeds of truck are largely controlled by the mental attitude of
the driver. Altitude did not seem to affect speeds of trucks on downhill grades.
(34).
2.1.6 Traffic Volume
The variation of the crash rate as it relates to traffic volumes has been examined
in numerous studies. The conventional wisdom among the general population is that
crash rates should increase with increasing volumes. Previous research on the relationship
between crash rates and hourly traffic volume has indicated a "U"-shaped function
encompassing broad ranges of traffic volumes. This indicates that during low volume
period, higher crash rates are observed than when the volumes of the road are greater.
These assumptions, however, were not very strong. Results of study conducted by Mork
Symmons et al. (21) showed correlations coefficient of 0.5 or less. Fatal crashes have a
negative correlation with volume, which can be attributed to the relationship between
traffic volume and speed and speed variability.
21
47 INDICATED AVERAGE SPEED PATTERN OF
45 HEAVILY LOADED VEHICLES ON VARIOUS
PERCENTAGES OF GRADE
cc 40 RATE OF SPEED LOSS ON VARIOUS PERCENTAGES

O OF GRADE AND DISTANCE FROM INITIAL POINT
VI 41
• TO START OF CRAWL SPEED
P,54
■
cc 35
w
0. ;I, 1.
th 30
1,)
o-
•
,s,
-0 FcF TENTATIVE 2S MPH CRITICAL SPEED
25 0
AVERAGE LOWES1
w B
Inc ° OBSERVED SPEED23MPH
0 kr
1-•
<0 2
cc ESTIMATED CRAWL SPEED 17.5 MPH
T
t..5 O
0 15
7
ESTIMATED CRAWL SPEED 12 MPH
0
u
wj 10 OBSERVED AVERAGE CRAWL SPEED 9MPH(Bmph-14mphr
a- OBSERVED AVERAGE CRAWL SPEED 7 MPH (6mph -10mph)
o
o
ESTIMATED CRAWL SPEED 6MPH
2 3 4 5 6 7 B 9 10 11 12 13 14
I 1 F
DISTANCE UP GRADE THOUSANDS OF SPEED
Fig: 2.8 Speeds on Various Upgrades
The volume of traffic as was mentioned earlier seems to be the single most
important predictor of crashes. Use of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) to
approximate the vehicle miles traveled at a site might reduce the natural variance that
exists in exposure data and this might result in heavy under dispersion.
2.1.7 Width of bridge and cross drainage

Width of bridge and cross drainage affects the rate of accident if provided narrow
or less than the pavement width. So, wide roadway is desirable at two lane bridges and
underpass and they should be several feet wider than the approach pavement. Of the two
types of structures, underpasses are considerably more hazardous. (12)
2.2 Driver Characteristics

Driver is the key factor in most of the accidents. His behavior influences and
controls the vehicle, while his behavior itself is controlled by his personality, age sex,
22
training and attitude. Alcohol and drugs affect his driving capability profusely and are
one of the major causes of the accident.
2.2.1 Age and Sex

Age certainly influences accident rate. The largest group of driver involve in
crashes was those aged 25 to 39. At least some part of the increased accident risk in
young driver is due to lack of experience and attitude of violation of traffic rules. As in
developing countries, males are over-involved in road traffic crashes and account for over
67% of those killed.
Older drivers may experience a wide range of problems with many aspects of
driving. When elderly drivers are surveyed, they report greater difficulty in conditions of
low illumination and problems detecting highway signs, and markers (Yee, 1985). Kline
et al. (1992), support this finding; they found eight problems that were strongly age
related in a survey of driving related visual problems - one of these problems was reading
signs quickly enough to be able to react to them.
L.A Foldvary (1) studied the complex relationship between the variations of the
number of accidents, number of miles traveled, and the accident involvement rates
according to age and sex of driver.(Fig 2.9) According to study the age and sex of the
driver are primary contributors towards the accident risk, while other factors studied,
such as type of area (urban. rural), day of week, hour of day, volume of traffic (peak and
off-peak periods), number of occupants. etc., have only a subordinate role in accident
causation
2.2.2 Attitude
David M. Harrington & Robin S. McBride (8) conducted a study on driver's
behavior on traffic violation by driver of different age, sex & martial status from the
driver's record datas.(Fig 2.10) They found that violations have a U-shaped relationship
with age. Males have a higher rate than females for Speed, equipment, passing and major
violations and a lower rate for sign and right of way violations. Single person's average
(not adjusted for mileage) is in greater number of each type of violation than married
persons.
23
(5)
ARLEACE CASUALTY CASUALTY
MORONI...NICE ACCIDENT ACC: OE NT
OR 36VEMENY DATE PEN
090608 538 00.0S
PDOUL AVON
SOO 400 7096
275
250 SPEED
EQUIPMENT
225
SIGN
600 300 Y5c
fii
c 220 PASSING,
TURNING
cr∎ 1175
A. RIGHT OF WAY
0
MAJOR
Ye' 150
g 125
400 200
§ 10
75
8 SO
7no 109
25
0
UNDER 26-30 36-40 A6-50 56-60 66-70 OVER
21 7S
AGE , YEARS
0 0
a 20 00'21 77.79 00- 20 50 "V •
9070 39 3eletal
Fig.2.9 Casualty Rates for Rural Areas. Fig.2.10 Violation per 1000 Drivers per
Private Vehicles with Male Drivers year by Type and Age
2.2.3 Fatigue
Bruce D Green Shield (4) carried out a study by using "Drivometer" action of the
driver & response motion of the vehicle recorded for different condition for a group of
driver.
Figure 2.11 presents schematically the performance level of the driver and
environmental demands as a function of time. For every individual, the performance level
varies because of such factors as mood, personality, physical conditions and skill. The
environmental demands vary according to different levels of design, types of roadway,
weather conditions, pedestrian activities, rates of traffic flow, etc. When the performance
level of the driver is not compatible with the environmental demands, an accident occurs.
2.2.4 Night driving
T.W. Forbes (29) studied the factor affecting driver efficiency at night. As per the
study, fatigue results in reduced human efficiency and for most of the driver probably it
will be greater at night. A number of accident studies by them on state highways have
24
indicated a higher proportion of accidents (possible sleep accident) in midnight and the
early morning hours. The effect of sleep deprivation has shown more during day light.
Driving in the drowsiness would be more likely to occur during night driving because of
sleeping habit of the vast of majority of peoples. Due to sleep deprivation eye blinking
and closure would be even 3 hours drive in day time.
I Sleep Deprived
AB C Accident
Driver
performance
1
U
a
E
m efltat%_11
Environ
I demands 'm
0..
I ZO 40 6.0 2_c 100 12 0 140 160
I •
Time Driving T 7 me in Minute a
Fig.2.11 Interaction between the Fig.2.12 Comparison of Deprived and

Environment Demands and Driver Non-deprived Groups on Eye Closure
Performance Levels
2.2.5 Alcohol and drugs

Alcohol and drugs affect the performance of the driver adversely. An analysis of
database for rural roads by Mark Symmones et al (21) revealed that Blood Alcohol
Concentration (BAC) values had particularly high in numbers data. Overall, 22% of
fatally injured drivers had a BAC of 0.05 or greater. In each case there seemed to be little
difference in alcohol involvement between rural cities and rural & remote areas.
In an alternative approach to examining the role of alcohol in crashes, crashes in
high and low alcohol hours were compared. The percentage of crashes that occurred in
high alcohol hours was higher for drivers (38%).
2.3 Climatic Conditions

Rain and wet roads are hazardous for traffic. On wet road surface coefficient of
the friction between the road surfaces in contact with the tyres of a vehicle is reduced,
and consequently at any speed a greater stopping distance is required. Visibility at night
may be reduced by the glare and distraction of wet shining surface. Therefore it is
difficult for drivers to control over a vehicle in rainy weather than a bright weather.(14)
25

2.4 Vehicle
No specific study regarding suitability of particular type of vehicle in hilly areas
was available. However, as far as vehicle is concerned, the following causes are
common, and more attributable to accidents; (12 &19)- (i) Brake failures; (ii) Poor
visibility due to faulty vehicle lighting system and (iii) Design of the body and feature
like, shape and dimension of the driver's seat, less visibility of the driver from the driver
seat, presence of protruding objects, condition of tyres etc.
William Thomas Hollowell (33) summaries the improvement over the years for
crashworthiness to passenger car implemented in accordance to various standard issued
by National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)). These are roof crush
resistance, seat belt and automatic protection, head restrains, steering wheel impact
protection, padded dash and interior protection , side door impact protection , child safety
seats, fuel system integrity, door locks, window glazing and bumper requirement.
2.5 Studies on Analysis of Road Accidents

Traffic safety has been a serious concern since the beginning of the automobile age .The
economy and social importance of reducing accident on highway is of utmost
requirement. The same can be achieved by identification of accident prone road sections
of highway and implementation of countermeasure.
2.5.1 Accident prone location

The identification of accident prone location is the first step in highway-safety
improvement project. In literature no universally accepted definition of black spot
According Hauer (1996) researches rank location by accident rate (accident per vehicle
kilometers), accident frequency (accident per km year) and combination of both. In
recent literature rank may be determined by the magnitude (of either of rate or frequency)
or, as is more common, by the amount by which the rate of frequency exceeds what is
normal. According to The Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics of Australia
(2001), an accident prone location or black spot is defined as any location (section) that
exhibits a higher potential for accident than a established norms.
26
2.5.2 Method for prioritization of accident prone location (section) on highway
Accident is mainly occurred due to improper interaction among the various factors
related to drivers, vehicles, roads and weather conditions. An occurrence of higher
number of accidents indicates the presence of more accident causative factors and higher
accident proneness of that stretch or location of highway. According to Babkov, if more
than three accidents a year occurred on one short section of a road, there are grounds to
believe that road conditions are creating accident situation. Various Methods for
identifications of black spot are discussed as under:
Accident Prone Index Method
Under the accident prone index method the following three components of
accidents are considered:
Consistency : It means how frequently accidents are taking place.
Tendency : It means whether the number of accidents is increasing continuously or
irregularly or it is constant.
Level : It means the magnitude of accidents in qualitative terms.
Weighted Severity Index Method
Weights were assigned to accidents of different severity levels and the accident
proneness of a spot or short section of road was determined as a function of the number
of accidents with different levels of severity.
Khisty has described six methods for identification of hazardous locations. These
methods are briefly discussed below:
Frequency Method
Accident locations are ranked based on accident frequency without any
consideration being given to severity or exposure.
Accident Rate Method
Accident frequency is combined with traffic volume to rank accident locations.
Frequency Rate Method
Accident locations are based both on accident rate and accident frequency and the
location with the highest accident rate and frequency denotes the most hazardous
location.
27
Rate Quality Control Method
Poisson's distribution is used to determine whether the accident rate at a particular
location is significantly higher than the predetermined average rate for locations of
similar characteristics.
Accident Severity Method
An Equivalent Property Damage Only (EPDO) factor is used to rank accident
locations by assigning weights to accidents of different severity levels.
Hazard Index Method
This method employs a formula to develop a rating for each suspect location. The
raw data is converted to an indicator value through a conversion graph. The indicator
values multiplied by suitable weightages give the hazard index for each site.
2.5.3 Risk levels and risk weighting

Based on accident severity and frequency of occurrence of accidents, a numerical
value, called risk weighting was developed by Vivan Rovert while studying the accidents
on SH-17 (41) to quantify the apparent risk to the road users caused due to different risk
levels. Four different severity levels were identified as: Fatal, Serious, Major and Minor.
Individual weightings were assigned to the four different severity levels based on the
ratio of the costs of accidents with these severity levels. Four different frequencies of
accident occurrence were also defined: Frequent, Probable, Occasional and Remote. The
frequencies were defined based on the average number of accidents reported every year
for the selected stretch of SH-17. It is therefore possible that different definitions of
frequency could be applied to different target highways based on the accident history.
Based on accident data available with the police, the selected stretch of highway has at
least 13 spots where there is a repeated occurrence of accidents and the average number
of accidents reported at all these spots on the selected stretch exceeds six accidents per
year. This has been chosen as the basis for defining "Frequent" occurrence of accidents.
Similarly, occurrence of two accidents per year has been assigned a frequency level
"Probable". Occurrence of one accident per year is considered "Occasional" and
occurrence of one accident every five years has been taken as "Remote".
28
2.5.4 Relationship between hazard rating score and accidents
An attempt was made to develop statistical relationships relating the hazard rating
score with the fatalities at each stretch and total casualties at each stretch. It was observed
that there exists a very good correlation between the hazard rating scores of individual
stretches and the fatalities at those stretches. A good correlation was also obtained
between the hazard rating scores and the total casualties of individual stretches. This
indicates that the hazard rating scores, even though obtained by subjective means and
observations are good indicators of the hazard potential of highways. It was observed that
the variables were significant at 95% confidence interval for F-test and t-test. .
The hazard rating score (HRS) is defined as:
HRS = E RW
Where,
RW is the risk weighting given to the safety problems identified during the audit (41).
The hazard rating score provides a method which a road controlling authority can
use to measure the performance of the road in successive safety audits or against
published results from other audits.
To enable the hazard potential of different stretches of highway to be compared; a
Hazard Ratio (HR) has been defined as:
HR = HRS
HRS
Where,
HRS = Hazard rating score
HRS = Average hazard rating score, i.e. the average of the hazard rating scores of the
entire selected stretch of highway.
2.5.5 Relationship between design consistency and safety

Several studies have shown the relationship between the standard deviation of
speeds and crash rates. Solomon (1964) and Garber and Ehrhart (2000) found that an
29
increase in the standard deviation of speeds increased crash rate. In order to calibrate the
observed relationship, a decreasing exponential function was formulated as is shown in
Eq. 1, as follows:

ERC = a.e-br (2.1)
Where, ECR is expected crash rate on a two-lane highway (acc/106 veh-km); C is design
consistency of a two-lane highway segment; and a, b are parameters. However, prior to
calibration by the regression analysis in the Excel software, it was necessary to perform a
linearization of the equation by taking the natural logarithm of both sides of the equation.
The calibration resulted in the model presented in Eq. 2.

ECR = 1.051 . e""" (2.2)
where all the variables have been defined above. The R2 of the model was 0.638 while
the p-value of the C variable was 0.0098, which means that the probability is less than
1% that the impact of the consistency is (C) is equal to zero.
2.6 Accident Counter-Measures
The accident analysis literature is quite extensive. Several studies have examined
the major parameters that affect traffic accidents and suggested countermeasures for
improving safety. It appears that road accidents are complex events influenced by a
variety of factors such as road geometry, pavement condition, traffic level, and existing
safety measures. A thorough accident analysis should ideally consider all or as many
parameters as possible. However, this is practically difficult due to the inability to isolate
the effect of each parameter. As a result, accident studies have typically examined few
parameters of the problem. In addition, although there is general agreement upon the
major factors affecting traffic accidents, different studies have not always provided
consistent results. Even within the same study, results may not be in agreement across
test sites Hughes et al. (2001), and this may be attributed to key differences among sites
such as road geometry and roadside environment or to differences in design practice.
30
Athanasios P. et al. (1998) presented the development of a system to support
maintenance decisions for improving safety in rural highways. The system incorporates
knowledge from past research, expert judgments, and available road and accident data.
System functions include statistical assessment of sections with frequent or severe
accidents, prioritization of maintenance needs, proposals for potential safety
improvements, and effectiveness evaluation of specific treatment employing before-and-
after analysis of actual field data. Maintenance is not confined to pavement condition
improvements, but it incorporates geometry improvements, obstacle removal and sight
distance restoration, signing, lighting, and drainage improvements, earth slope retention,
highway access control, and pedestrian facility improvement. Although the system is not
as wide to provide solutions for any possible case yet, it can assist decision making in
most real-world cases within the application network.
Brian A. et al. (5) developed procedure for reconstructing run-off-road accidents
into longitudinal W-beam guardrail systems was developed by estimating energy
dissipation during an impact. Correlations were developed between the vehicle's
departure angle, velocity, type of vehicle, and the energy dissipated. Energy losses are
due to (1) barrier—vehicle friction; (2) post/soil deformations; (3) guardrail beam
deformations, and (4) vehicle energy losses attributed to the vehicle (this is composed of
actual vehicle damage and tire—ground friction, with vehicle damage being predominate).
Barrier—vehicle friction losses were found to range from about 5 to 36%, depending upon
speed and impact angle. The energy to cause permanent deflection of the guardrail posts
in a system was found to be roughly equivalent to the amount of energy dissipated by the
rail deformation of that system. Comparisons with full-scale crash test results showed
that the developed iterative reconstruction procedure accurately estimated impact
velocities within 3%. Significant portions of the initial vehicle energy are dissipated
through friction between a longitudinal barrier and the impacting vehicle.
energy loss = 1.45 .
where 0 = impact angle in degrees presented the computer simulations for W beam guard
rails and M. Computational and experimental crash analysis of the road safety barrier.
31
As per performance study by Z. Ren et al. (2003) M. Vesenjak Borovinsiek M.
Vesenjak, M. Ulbin, Z. Ren road restraint systems installed on public roads in Europe
have to fulfill the European standard EN 1317, which mandates certain full scale crash
tests to certify safety barriers for targeted containment levels. To reduce the development
and testing costs of new safety barrier designs, it is advisable to use computational crash
simulations. The vehicle impact point position depends on the length of the modelled
barrier and the test type.
Fig. 2.13 — Test Vehicle Impact at the Road Restraint System
The tests have also shown that the new safety barrier assures controllable crash energy
absorption which in turn increases the safety of vehicle occupants
Fig. 2.14 — Deformation of the Road Restraint System
32
M. Borovinsiek et al. (27) presented the results of computer simulations of road
safety barrier behaviour under vehicle crash conditions for high containment levels as
mandated by the European standard EN 1317. Simulations were performed with the
explicit. A very good agreement of simulation and real crash tests results was observed,
which in turn justifies the use of computer simulations in the process of development and
certification of road safety barriers. Structural parts of crash barriers are shown in Fig.
2.15.
distance spacer
N
vaneel
gurfary.:e
past
Fig. 2.15 — Main Barrier Parts and Some Reinforcements
Fig. 2.16 — The barrier Deformation during Large Scale Test (top) and Simulation
(bottom)
33
Comparison of the computer simulation and a large scale experiment showed
good correlation of computational and experimental results for both considered crash
tests.
A meta analysis of the safety value of guardrails and crash cushions from
evaluation studies was done by Rune Elvik (34).
Rigid Deformable (stiff) Deformable (soft) Yielding
it
Concrete Steel W-beam Steel W-beam Wire

Blocked Not blocked
Steel posts Wood posts
Dense post spacing Open post spacing
Fig. 2.17 - Types of Guardrail According to Rigidness
Based on the studies included in the meta- analysis, the best current estimates of
the effects of median barriers are a 30% increase in accident rate, a 20% reduction in the
chance of sustaining a fatal injury, given an accident, and a 10% reduction in the chance
of sustaining a personal injury, given an accident. Guardrails reduce the chance of
sustaining a fatal injury by about 45%, given that an accident has occurred. The chance of
sustaining a personal injury is reduced by about 50%, improvement priority and
performance evaluation.
F. C. Flury et al. (1995) while conducting crash barrier research in the
Netherlands gave the functional and structural requirement of crash barriers as under:-
2.6.1 Functional requirements

Basically the function of the crash barrier is to control the vehicle's motion by
means of external forces, if possible during the entire crash phase, i.e. from the initial
34
contact between vehicle and barrier until the driver is able to regain control of the vehicle
or until the vehicle is brought to a halt outside the traffic lane. Functional requirements
for the barrier are merely specifications of limitations in the kinematic behaviour of the
vehicle and the control forces exerted on it by the barrier.
2.6.2 Structural requirements

The above functional requirements can be translated into the structural
requirements which a crash barrier must satisfy. The first requirement is that the barrier
must be longitudinally strong enough to withstand the forces of the heaviest possible
impact without breaking. Experience gained during the project showed that it is sufficient
if the structure and its anchoring at beginning and end can absorb at least 40 tons force.
Lateral accelerations can be reduced by allowing the structure to deflect gradually
during the impact. With extreme impacts (speed 100 km,/h, impact angle 20") the
deflection will have to be at least 1 metre wherever possible, for light private cars and
also for heavy trucks. This, of course, is not so simple. Since most of the traffic consists
of private cars of 500 to 1500 kgf, the structure will in any case have to deflect enough
when hit by these. If heavy trucks run into it, it is bound to deflect further. Nevertheless
the deflection should remain within reasonable limits, and the resistance will have to
increase as deflection proceeds.
As per workshop summary of Planning Committee (2006) for the Workshop on
Traffic Safety in Developing Nations Transportation Research Board for improving road
safety in developing countries following points were stressed:
o Safer road users (enforcement programs and training, driver training, and public
information);
o Safer vehicles (including development of regulations for commercial vehicles);
o Safer roads (low-cost civil works in the pilot corridors and cities, such as signs,
markings, and crash barriers, and development of procedures for conducting
safety audits of roads)—the component receiving the majority of funding;
o Road safety monitoring and evaluation systems (establishment of both systems to
evaluate the effectiveness of road safety activities and a national road crash data
system);
35
o Improvements to post crash rescue and relief and emergency medical services;
o Institutional development and support (including development of improved road
safety legislation, guidelines for allocating funds to road safety, and safety
planning); and
o Transport technical assistance (advice on improving the efficiency of operations
of the road, rail, port, and transit systems).
The project targets corridors and areas where the concentration of deaths and
injuries is high and aims to bring all the relevant actors together to develop an appropriate
response. The goal is to replicate the elements of good practice that are observed in
developed countries with effective safety programs.
2.6.3 Psychological aspects of crash barriers

The anticipated or already demonstrated behavioral effects of crash barriers
favorable to traffic safety are herein divided into three subclasses as follows (32)
(1) An increase in the negative feedback to certain unsafe forms and aspects of traffic
behavior;
(2) An increase in the driver's subjective risk;
(3) The introduction of an aid for the driver in choosing his driving lines.
In a tentative cost-benefit analysis of accidents during the three-year period 1967-
1969 on a 79.7 km stretch of a two-lane highway with heavy traffic between Helsinki and
La hti, the analysis was performed on the basis of detailed information about each of the
accidents It is estimated, for example, that the number of people killed could be reduced
by some 40 per cent on this road by such a measure.
The corresponding behavioral effect is, of course, difficult to calculate even
roughly. It goes without saying that, under arrangements of this kind, vehicles are bound
to bump the barriers. (Similarity, the termination of passing lanes would cause some
accidents.) It should be noted, however, that sideswiping or crashing into barriers that
results in property damage only is by no means unfavorable from the standpoint of traffic
safety. Presumably an experience of this kind would have a positive effect on the future
behavior of a driver behind the wheel, for the strong negative feedback yielded by the
wrong action.
36
When the decrease in the annual loss from accidents is taken into account, the
proposed measure would also be economically beneficial. Along the stretch of highway
under consideration, the cost of erecting crash barriers would amount, calculated
according to Finnish norms, to about a million dollars and the annual maintenance
expenses, including repair of damage, to about $60,000. The extra lanes required for
passing and turning off (an estimated extra 20 km) would cost roughly two million
dollars; but some of these lanes will have to be built anyhow to increase road capacity. In
addition, eliminating the necessity of painting the mid-line and no-passing lines would
bring about an incidental saving.
2.7 Artifical Neural Network (ANN)

What are neural networks? Neural networks are models that are designed to
imitate the human brain through the use of mathematical models. The neural 'network'
consists of a series of processing "units" which are collectively "connected" — like
synapses in the human brain. The network consists of an input, output and hidden layer.
Numeric data moves from connection to each unit whereupon it is processed. Processing
takes place locally at each unit and between connections — in a parallel fashion. That is
ANN's are parallel processors rather than iterative processors, which alternate from
processor to processor. The ANN methodology has been used in various communication
traffic and transportation engineering related problems.
In the year 1999, Mussone et al used neural network to analyze vehicle accident
that occurred at intersection in Milan, Italy. They chose feed- forward multilayer
perception (MLPO using back — propagation (BP0 learning. The model had 10 input
nodes for eight variables (day or night traffic flows circulating in the intersection number
of virtual conflict points, number of real conflict points, type of intersection, accident
type, road surface condition and weather condition). The model gave accident index from
output node and was calculated as the ratio between the number of accident at the most
dangerous intersection. Result showed that the highest accident index for running over
pedestrian occur at non signalized intersection at nighttime.
Miao M. et al studied the National Automotive Sampling System General
Estimates System automobile accident data from 1995 to 2000 and investigated the
37
performance of neural networks and decision trees applied to predict drivers' injury
severity in head-on front impact point collisions. Previous research focused mainly on a
binary classification of collision results into no injury and injury (including fatality)
classes. In this study, they were able to extend the research to include new categories:
possible injury, no incapacitating injury, incapacitating injury, and fatal injury. The
experiments also showed that the model for fatal and non-fatal injury performed better
than other classes.
Saleh Mohammed Al-Alawi developed models based on Artificial Intelligence
techniques such as artificial neural networks, expert systems and fuzzy logic. These
techniques have successfully been applied in a variety of fields reporting higher accuracy
compared to other classical models and methods.
Awad and Janson used two Al techniques (along with a Poisson — linear
regression transformation, as previously discussed) to explain truck accidents at
interchanges in Washington State during a 27- month period. The two artificial
intelligence approaches showed a high level of performance in identifying different
patterns of accidents and presented a better fit when compared to the Poisson — linear
regression model. Awad and Janson concluded that AI techniques are more capable of
explaining the complexity of predicting truck accident frequencies than traditional
regression procedures. The authors caution that great care should be exercised when
using the neural network technique and that much training data are needed to reach
reasonable results. Neural networks should be used to provide insights about the strong or
weak connections between input variables and the desired output.
2.8 Work Done at HT Roorkee:

1. Sunil Gupta (1996) carried out a detailed study base on the past accident data and
various geometric feature of the Highway No 58, relating the fatality rate with geometric
features. Models were evolved carrying out liner regression analysis. The models are as
given below.
38
Table 2.3 : Models and Variables
S.No. Model Variable
1 Y = 108- 0.202X1-5.14X2-0.19X3
Y= Fatality rate per Km per year
2 Y = 107- 0.218X1-0.201X2
X1 = radius of horizontal curve
3 Y = 99.6 - 0.273 X1 - 6.21 X2
X2 = Shoulder width
X3= Sight distance in meters
4 Y = 98.8 - 0.413X1 - 6.21 X2
The models clearly indicate that fatality rate per year would reduce if the shoulder width
is increased also the improvement in sight distance positively affects fatality rate.
2. Bairwa H. R. (2001) developed model for NH-58 from km 165 to km 200 and
same are given as under:
a. Correlation between Babkov coefficient (K) and Fatality Rate (FR)
FR = 0.7269 K +140.84 , R2 value is 0.7129
b. Correlation between Fatality Rate (FR) and speed index
FR= 8.194(SIO + 137.43, R2 value is 0.8631.
3. Models developed by Satish Chandra et al: In a study Satish Chandra and Bhuyan
(2005) modeled accidents on national highway 58, 73 State highway 14, & 47 using
regression technique. Their study infers that accident rate per kilometer increases with
traffic volume. But accident rate per million vehicle kilometer decreases with increase in
traffic volume. Both accident and injury rate per MKVY shows a declining trend over a
time of period, whereas, fatality rate does not follow a definite trend. Also these models
estimate that number of accidents on the selected network of roads will reduce by 9 -
27% if road and shoulder condition are improved.
The general form of equation developed for highways under study is as under
Accident/km-year = CO+Cl (AADT) +C2 (Road and Shoulder Condition Rank (CR)
All coefficients were found statistically significant at 95 % level of confidence.
4. Jaiswal S S (2006) carried out study for prediction of accident for non-urban highways
and found that the model accuracy probabilities that neural network can analysis the
traffic accident with relatively high accuracy . The result from sensitivity analysis on the
ANN model shows that road side developments have maximum relative elasticity of 2.25
39
among the competent variables. The second important variable is shoulder type. Also
both ANN and ZIP model have shown the significant effect of curves density and
intersection density on road traffic accidents.
5 Mishra S K (2006) proposed a prediction model using Artificial Neural Network

(ANN) technique is proposed to enhance traffic safety analysis. A network comprised of
seven variables i.e. lane width, shoulder width, shoulder type, number of access, number
of curves, road side development responsible of accident was constructed. On the basis of
study following conclusion are drawn:
a. With increase in lane width accident decreases up to a limit and than
increases.
b. Increase in shoulder width decrease in accidents.
c. Earthen shoulders are more responsible for accident. And brick shoulder of
width up to 2.5 m is the best option to reduce accidents.
d. Increase in road side development cause more accidents and it increases
linearly.
e. With increase in number of access, initially the accident increases and after a
threshold value accident decreases.
6. Landge Vishrut S. (2006) carried out a study on NI-I-58 Of a total 230 km

stretch from Delhi to Rishikesh. Any location with fatality rate more than mean
fatality rate+1.5 standard deviation of fatality rate was identified as an accident
black spot. Based on the study following was concluded:
a. AADT has a "U" linear variation against accident rate in case of two lanes
straight and curve segment.
b. Volume of Non- motorized vehicles for two lane straight segment shows
"S" relation to the accident rate.
c. For two lane straight sections the volume of heavy vehicle shows a "U"
relation.
d. In case of two lane sections space mean speed shows a positive relation
with the accident rate. Accident rate is low for spot speed up to 43.2
40
KMPH. On curve section ahe accident rate is lowest for speed from 38 to
43 KMPH.
e. Shoulder width is having a pre-dominating effect on accident rate on both
curve and straight sections. Initially with increase in shoulder width the
accident rate reduces and than practically stabilized.
f. Length of curve, sight distance & radius of curvature are associated with
more accident rate. Accident rate.
CHAPTER - 3
METHODOLOGY ADOPTED
3.1 General
In this dissertation methodology adopted for the black-spot identification on

National Highway, taking into consideration of the geometric parameters of the highway,
traffic volume and journey speed study. Even though causes of accidents can be many,
however, traffic engineering parameters are of specific relevance to a professional
approach by a transportation engineer to study highway accidents. Various geometric and
traffic parameters which can have a likely effect on highway accidents have been
discussed in the following sections.
3.2 Geometric Parameters of the Road

3.2.1 Cross section elements
The cross-sectional elements in a highway design pertain to those features which
deal with its width. Details of cross section elements are shown in Figure 3.1.
(i) Roadway width
Roadway width is the sum total of carriageway width and shoulder width on
either side. It is exclusive of parapets and drains. Details of width of carriageway,
shoulder and roadway for various categories of roads are given in Table 3.1.
(ii) Width of pavement
The pavement or carriageway width depends on the width of traffic lane and
number of traffic lanes. The minimum lane width for a lane is on the basis of the width of
vehicle and minimum side clearance which may be provided for safety. The cross section
elements for hilly roads as per IRC: 20: 1980 are given in Table 3.1.
(iii) Right of way
Right of way is the area of land acquired for the road along its alignment. The
width of this acquired land depends on the importance of the road and possible future
development.
42
OVERALL WIDTH BETwEEN CONTROL LINES
OVERALL WIDTH BETWEEN BUILDING LINES
ROAD LAND WIDTH
'it "5 ROADWAY (FORMATION WIDTH)
-Ow g
BUILDING LINE
CONTROL LINE
CARRIAGEWAY
cc °
4
CONTROLLINE
O 41
.41•41/Ararir/4/41 z
0 O %.,
z
8
4
OF ROAD
Fig 3.1 Road land & Cross Sectional Elements of Hill Road
Table 3.1 Widths of Carriageway, Shoulder and Roadway

Highway Classification Carriageway Shoulder Roadway width
width (m) width (m) (m)
a. National Highways
and state highways
3.75 2 x 1.25 6.25
i. Single lane
ii. Double Lane 7.00 2 x 0.9 8.8
b. Major District Roads 3.75 2 x 0.5 4.75

and other District
Roads
c. Village Roads 3.00 2 x 0.5 4.00

Table 3.2 Desirable Road Land Widths (meter)
Si. Road Classification Open Areas Built up area
No. Normal Exceptional Normal Exceptional
1. National and State 24 18 20 18
Highways
2. Major District Roads 18 15 15 12
3. Other District Roads 15 12 12 9
(iv) Shoulder
Shoulders are provided along the roadway to serve as an emergency lane for
vehicle compelled to be taken .out of the pavement of roadway. The required norms for
various class of road for shoulder width are given in Table 3.1.
3.2.2 Horizontal alignment

Horizontal curves
A horizontal curve is a curve in plain to provide change in direction to the central
line of the road. The horizontal alignment should be fluent and blend with the
surrounding topography. In general, horizontal curves should consist of circular portion
of the curve followed by spiral transition on both sides. Design speed, super elevation and
coefficient of friction affect the design of curves.
(ii) Super elevation
Super elevation is required to be provided at horizontal curves to counter the effect of
centrifugal force and is calculated from the formula:
V2
e—
225R
Where
e = super elevation in meter per meter width of roadway
V = speed of vehicle in KMPH and
R radius
= of curve in meters
44
The above relationship assumes that the centrifugal force corresponding to three-
fourth of design speed is balance by super elevation and one – fourth counteracted by the
side friction between the tyres of vehicles and the road surface.
Super elevation obtained from the above formula should, however, be kept
limited to the following values:-

a. In snow bound areas 7%
b. In hilly areas not bound by snow = 10%
(iii) Radius of horizontal curve

For a certain speed of vehicle the centrifugal force is dependent on the radius of
curves. To keep the centrifugal ratio within a low limit, the radius of the curve should be
kept corresponding high. The centrifugal force which is counteracted by the super
elevation and lateral friction is given as
V2
e+f = —
gR
In this equation, the maximum allowable super elevation rate has been fixed as 7
percent and the design coefficient of lateral friction 'I" as 0.15.
Thus the ruling minimum radius of the curve for ruling design speed v m/sec, or
V kmph is given by:
VZ
Rrulling
(e + f)g
The radius of horizontal curve is measured by taking any two points on the curve.
The distance between the points is measured with the help of measuring tape straight.
The radius of horizontal curve (R) is calculated from the following formula;
X
2
+ y2
R
2y
Where x = centre of the straight length of the curve from centre of road,
y = vertical intercept from centre of the road
45
(iv) Hair pin bends
CIRCULAR
CURVE
Fig 3.2 Hair Pin Bend
Hairpin bend is a curve in horizontal alignment resulting in reversal of direction of

flow of traffic. A bend may be for reversing road direction on same face of hill
slopes. Hair pin bend, where unavoidable may be designed as circular curves with
transition at each end, or as a compound circular curve (Fig 32). The following
criteria should be followed normally for their design:
A Minimum design speed - 20 km/h
B Minimum roadway width at apex
(i) National/ State Highways - 11.5 m for double lane
9.5 m for single lane
(ii) Major District Roads and - 7.5 m
Other District Roads
(iii) Village Roads - 6.5 m
C Minimum radius for the inner curve - 14.0 m
D Minimum length of transition curves - 15.0 m
E Gradient
Maximum - 1 in 40 (2.5 %)
Minimum - 1 in 200 (0.5%)
F Superelevation - 1 in 10 (10 %)
46
3.2.3 Passing places
Passing places are required on single lane hill roads to facilitate crossing of
vehicles approaching from the opposite direction and to tow aside a disabled vehicle so
that it
----, I
T 75 M
I
3.70M
3.75 M --I 3.75 M CARRIAGEWAY
FS
OR9M
5MATION WIDTH)
(
- 30 M
I.
20M --el
6.75M 8.95 M 5.20M

3.75 M--1 3.00 M CARRIAGEWAY (
FOR
MATION WIDTH)
10 M -1
Fig 3.3 Passing Places on Single lane Highway
does not obstruct traffic. They should be provided at the rate of 2-3 per kilometer. Layout
of a passing place is shown in Fig. 3.3.
3.3 Vertical Alignment

3.3.1 Gradient
Gradient is the rate of rise or fall along the length of the road with respect to the
horizontal. It is expressed as a ratio of 1 in x (1 vertical unit to x horizontal units) or as a
percentage, n i.e. n in 100. Highway alignment has different grades at different locations.
The grade for the study area is taken from the records of the concerned office of the
Border Roads Organization.
3.3.2 Vertical curve
Vertical curve are introduced for smooth transition at grade changes. Convex
vertical curve are known as summit curve and concave vertical curves as valley or sag
curves. Both these are designed as squre parabolas. The length of vertical curve is
controlled by sight distance requirements. But curves with greater length are aesthetically
better. Where horizontal and summit vertical curves overlap, the design should provide
47
for the required sight distance both in vertical direction along the pavement and in the
horizontal direction on the inside of the curve.
3.3.3 Design speed
The design speeds for various categories of hill roads are given in Table 3.3.
Table 3.3 : Design Speed (km/h)

SI No Road Classification Mountainous Terrain Steep Terrain
Ruling Minimum Ruling Minimum
1 National and State 50 40 40 30
Highways
2 Major District Roads 40 30 30 20
3 Other District Roads 30 25 • 25 20
4 Village Roads 25 20 25 20
3.4 Sight Distance Consideration

The minimum sight distance available on a highway at any spot should be
sufficient long to stop a vehicle traveling at designed speed, safely without collision with
any other obstruction. Sight distance is a minimum distance measured along the road
surface at which an object of 0.15 m height can be seen by a driver where eye is at a
height of 1.2 m above the road surface. Restrictions to sight distance caused at horizontal
curves, by objects obstructing vision at the inner side of the road or at vertical summits
curves in hilly roads due geographical features or terrain conditions.
Sl. No. Sight Distance Driver's eye height Height of object

1. Safe stopping distance 1.2 m 0.15 m
2. Intermediate sight distance 1.2 m 1.2 m
Two type of sight distances are considered in design of hill roads. These are stopping
sight distance and intermediate sight distance, which is defined as twice the stopping
sight distance.
48
The relative accident rates Ki to K14 are derived as the ratio of accident rate at a
specific section to the number of accident on the standard straight level section with 7.5
m wide pavement and firm broad shoulder. The relative accident rates K 1 to K14 is
given Appendix - A .
3.8.2 Criteria for black spot identification
For existing roads in open hilly terrain, the roads are to be recommended for
improvement of these sections, where, the accident potential grows above 25 - 40. In
New highway design, the section of the route which has more than 115 -20 points should
be recommended. For mountainous roads where curves are sharp with small radii of
curvature, limited sight distance and large grades , the section of the roads where accident
potential is as high as 40 — 250 to be considered hazardous. In such sections the accident
rate is mainly increased by drivers exceeding the safety speed limit.
3.8.3 Speed profile method
The graph is plotted between the mean speed of the vehicle and stretches of roads.
The line joining the speed in any vehicle run is a speed profiles are obtained for different
section of vehicles.
After plotting the speed profile the following points are studied
(a) Mean speed of the vehicle in each section
(b) Grand mean of mean speeds
(c) Standard deviation of grand mean speed
(d) Speed index
(e) Speed gradient index
3.8.4 Criteria for accident black spots identification

The stretches on which SI is greater than 3.0 are accident black spot.
3.9 Artificial Neural Network

3.9.1 Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
ANN has been recently introduced in accident modeling and has gained
considerable attention and appreciation. The approach is somewhat similar to statistical
modeling. However, it should be treated as complimentary or an alternative approach to
51
fitting Non-linear data. A typical neural network (shown in Figure is composed of
input units X1, X2, ... corresponding to independent variables (geometric, traffic
variables), a hidden layer known as the first layer, and an output layer (second layer)
whose output units Y1, ... correspond to dependent variables (expected number of
accidents per km).
In between are hidden units H1, H2, corresponding to intermediate variables?
These interact by means of weight matrices W (1) and W (2) with adjustable weights.
ANN enjoys advantages like; there is no need to assume an underlying data distribution
such as usually is done in statistical modeling. Neural networks are applicable to
multivariate non-linear problems. The transformations of the variables are automated in
the computational process. However ANN demands great deal of computational efforts to
counteract over fitting. Also the individual relations between the input variables and the
output variables are not developed by engineering judgment so that the model tends to be
a black box or input/output table without analytical basis. The sample size has to be large
to have a high confidence level.
Based on the available data model preparation of predicting the occurrence of
road accident at any given road section as per the scientific approach. Artificial neural
network technique has been adopted. A typical neural network has been shown in Fig.
3.4.
52
H3
1 st Layer 1
2:nd Layer
Fig 3.4 - A Typical Neural Network
53
CHAPTER — 4
DATA COLLECTION
4.1 General
Data has been collected for analysis of accident from primary and secondary
source. Data which are based on field study are primary data. Data which are collected
from secondary source like police station, hospital .detail project reports, transport office
etc. are secondary data.
4.2 Description of Study Area

The road stretch Rishikesh Rudraprayag part of NH-58 running in hilly region is
selected for study. Salient features of existing road in study area are shown in Table 4.1.
Table 4.1 - Salient Features of Existing Road in Study Area

S. No Features Existing road NH D/L work under
progress
1 Length 129.675Km
2 Formation Width 6.10 m 10 to 11.50 m

3 Carriageway width 4.88 m 7 m to 8.50 m
5 Annual rainfall Up to 100 cm
6 Altitude 354.65m to 968.00 m
7 Minimum radius of 23 m 50 m (exceptional 30
of curves m/ 40 m)
8 Minimum radius of Zigs 14 m
Index map of study area showing major obligatory points are given in Fig 4.1.
54
INDEX MAr
STUDY AREA NH-58
\ P1 \\f f., 2.\I rt
KM 70 1.%1
7 IA0
;t 11'1 A:Y.:CIA I
iN1) ;;; 4" '1/21q. LAR KM 389
7 R. T? K\ 't 374
T!I„ AK.A IRA pp,A vA0 KM :;o7
KALIASAUR KM 348
KfRTIN 1 K,14 :33:*;
[111.\. KM :;33
• N KM ! 7
)1-1 VPR...\ Y,\(; 2')S
MORT&H ROAD
SHINTURI 243 CS ROAD
PWD ROAD
_J
AR • I,
The details of data collected in connection with thesis are given below.
4.3 Primary Data Collection

Primary data were collected on the basis of field study. From the field studies
geometric data has been collected such as width of roadway, shoulder and pavement,
sight distances, radius of horizontal curves, width of bridges, traffic volume, pavement
characteristics, speed of vehicles and gradient etc.
55

4.4 Site Selection

Primary data were collected for the road stretch between Rishikesh and
Rudraprayag on NH-58. The total length of sector is 133 Km. Sector has been further sub
divided in sub sectors on the basis of gradient range from 2%, 3%, 5%, 7% and 8% for
study. Details of sub-section are given in Appendix-B.
4.5 Traffic Volume Count

Traffic volume count has been collected from the details of 66 RCC of Border
Roads Organization for last five years. Traffic volume count station is at km 330 on NH
58.Classified traffic volume count for last five years collected and same is given in Table
4.2.
4.6 Data Collected for Babkov Coefficients

For calculating Babkov coefficient for the complete road sector as per
requirement given in Appendix-A are collected.
4.7 Journey Speed Study

Registration number method has been used for finding journey sped. During
analysis the speed of vehicles abnormally at variance are not considered
4.8 Traffic Accident Data

Traffic accident data as secondary data were collected from five police station i.e.,
Muni ki Reti, Devprayag, Kirtinagar. Srinagar and Rudraprayag. The time period for
which accident data were collected is from January 1', 2001 to December 31' 2006.The
details of individual accident were extracted from the police station records and HQ 66
RCC is:-
1. Day and date of accident
2. Time
3. Location
4. Type of vehicle involved in accident
5. Type of accident
56
6. Age and address of driver
7. Number of person killed
8. Number of person injured
9. Cause of accident as police records
10. Road either in curve or stretch at the accident site
The drivers belongs to state of Uttarakhand except from District of Haridwar,

Udham Singh Nagar and Dehaardun were considered as local who is having exposure to
hill driving. Driver coming during yatra season from various parts of country were
considered as outsider who is not having a fair exposure to hill driving including resident
of three district of Uttarakhand as stated earlier.
It can be seen from table that the numbers of taxi/jeep are increasing year by year.
This is due to use of personal vehicle and hired taxies during the yatra. This is due to
tendency of towards using personal or hired vehicle for individual or a group.
57
,...,..
c,...
c.)E
ae
-z,v w)„ s
.._ —, .73— ..,-, c)
lt, •,,,
L cv en
N
4764
3526
Secondary Data Format - Ill c) o • -a-
CNI CC kr)
r"-- CD kl)
State : Uttarakhand 2
—= u
cz
<
Rickshaws
Cycle
CLASSIFIED TRAFFICVOLUMEDATA
(i) . I I I I
U
C..)
378 1
c4 .-
cl.) 0 0,, Is- CV
C■I •;-" N cc —
...-) cc .1- 431
Traffic volume (AADT)
Cl) i I i I i
Name and category of Road : Delhi-Rishikesh - Joshimath - Mana road (NH-58)
(...)
■
i
;.0.1 8 I I I I i
• • •=1
CtiU • FS'
'"
H ..i...
C=> N
435 1394 810
569
417
C'n 00
From Km 228.000 to Km 399.000
M if) en
-, ch .--• 'I' Ch
1307
ci7
s-, Ca.,
cu CT N r `-
CZ ci) .-1 in kr)
U "-- —, ,--1 .--
Cr
k-■

C) .--• kr) CDC

487
..= CI) Cel Cr tr)

f--I ..
1049
1238
wheelers
Two
C) N
427
N tr)
ON
2003
2002
2004
4
0 et 4:)
2005
..-■ 0
0
Table fvo 4.2
cl.) ›.., C■1

1:1-i s..--,
Station:
Census location
/ Chainage
,----,
0 s-1
0 ct tki)
rr; czi
Cr)
M ...
°" -I C>C)
CHAPTER-5
DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULT
5.1 Pre —Processing of Data

5.1.1 Growth of accidents
Figure 5.1 shows year-wise growth of accidents in the study area. The analysis
shows that in the last couple of years after 2002, the total number of accidents has
reduced. The reason for this decline is improvement of road condition, signage, and
provision of additional safety measure by B.R.O on this road.
Table 5.1 : Details of Accidents Year-Wise
Year No of Accidents No of Deaths No of injury

2002 38 65 92
2003 30 20 49
2004 32 44 89
2005 19 67 58
2006 16 49 20
No.of Accident /Death/Injury
—111-- No of injury
No or Deaths
—III— No of Accidents

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Years
Fig .5.1 - Distribution of Accidents by Year-wise
59
5.1.2 Distribution of accident by month-wise
The distribution of accident by month-wise for the study period is depicted in
Figure 5.2. It can be concluded that during the month of June accidents were the highest.
This is due to increase in traffic due to yatra of holy shrine of Lord Badrivishal,
Kedranath and Hemkund Shaib. The taxi persons try doing as much as possible trips with
tourist, which result in rash driving and high speed and more accidents.
30
27
25 -
20 -
16
15 I 0 No of Accidents
12
11
10
10 9- 9
8
Months
Fig 5.2 - Distribution of Accident by Month-wise
311
25
20
• No of Accidents
10
2 3 4 5 6 7
Day
Fig 5.3 - Distribution of Accidents by Day-wise
60
5.1.3 Distribution of accident day-wise
The distribution of road accidents by day wise is shown in the Figure 5.3. The
analysis of data shows that maximum number of accidents is on Saturday followed on
Friday and Monday.
The reason may be commencing yatra on week end or on Monday and try to avail
week ends.
5.1.4 Distribution of accidents by vehicle—wise
The details of accident vehicle-wise show that taxi/jeep and followed by trucks
are the main defaulters for causing of the accidents (Fig. 5.4). The is attributed due to
rash driving, non adherence to traffic rules, drunken driving , traveling during late hours
over loading of passengers/ goods and poor condition of vehicle and lack of proper
maintenance. During yatra season the tendency of taxi drivers to do more trips and this
tends to rash driving also responsible for more accidents.
Table 5.2 : Details of Accident by Mode of Transport

S Mode of 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total
No Transport
1 Bus 9 4 4 3 5 25
2 Car 9 5 3 2 3 22
3 T/407 1 3 - - 1 5
4 Taxi/jeep 10 13 10 8 5 46
5 Truck 9 7 14 8 3 41
6 Scooter/ - - 1 - 1 2
Motorcycle
61
Scooter/ Motorcycle
Bus
1%
18°10
0 Bus
Car
Car ❑ T/407
16%
Taxi/Jeep
0 Truck
Taxi/Jeep
32% o Scooter/
Motorcycle
Fig 5.4 - Distribution of Accidents by Vehicle-wise
5.1.5 Distribution of accidents by time of day
The distribution of accident by time of day is depicted in Figure 5.5.The analysis

of data shows that accidents are more during 1200-1400 hrs and followed by 1600-1800
hrs. The reason for this may be the drivers are commencing yatra in early morning hours
and after driving of 6-7 hours feeling drowsiness or may be afternoon nap. Similarly, in
evening hours due to poor visibility and tendency to rush at destination before closure of
road for traffic leads to over speeding cause accidents at sharp curves.
5.1.6 Distribution of accidents by cause

The details of cause of accident have been shown in Figure 5.6. From the details it
can be concluded that in majority of accident (80%) the driver is at fault followed by
vehicle defect (15%). Although, these cause as per the police record but same are at par
the various studies conducted earlier. These are attributed due to rash and negligent
driving. The exact cause can be given if the accident sides are properly examined by an
expert panel.
62
25
21
20
20 -
18 18
15 7 - 14
0 No of Accidents
O
10
8 8
7
6

5 4
3
0
0
0000- 0200- 0400- 0600- 0800- 1000- 1200- 1400- 600- 1800- 2100- 2200-
0200 0400 0600 0800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400
Time
Fig 5.5 - Distribution of Accidents by Time of Day
Road Defect
5%
Vehicle Defect
15%
0 Dvr's Fault
IT Vehicle Defect
o Road Defect
Dvr's Fault
80%
Fig 5.6 - Distribution of Accidents by Cause
5.1.7 Distribution of accidents by age of drivers
Overall less than 30 years old comprised the largest group of drivers involved in
road crashes (52%). The tendency of younger drivers to violate traffic rule, over speeding
are the cause of this type of pattern of accidents (Fig. 5.7).
63
41-50
16%
18-30
52"A,
Fig 5.7 - Distribution of Accidents by Age of Drivers
5.1.8 Distribution of accidents by area of drivers

A comparison of driver residence and crash locations was under taken to analysis
the effect of exposure of driving in hill areas and involvement in road crash. Details of
area of residence of drivers of about 23% are not available in the police records. In total
55% driver lived in the same area and assumed well acquainted to hill driving are
involved in the accidents from the available records.
NA
23%
0 Local
1210ut sider
Local
55% 0 NA
Out sider
22%
Fig 5.8 - Distribution of Accidents by Area of Drivers
5.1.9 Distribution of accidents by type of accidents

As per analysis of accident data it can be seen from Fig. (5.9) that major of type
of accidents are roll down of vehicle in the valley (93%). This is due to presence of
serpentine narrow and sharp horizontal curve. On the curves due to speed or avoiding
conflict to vehicles coming from other direction the accidents are taking place.
64
7%
0 Call ission
BS Rol!down
93%
Fig 5.9 - Distribution of Accidents by type of Accidents
5.2 Model Approach for analysis of Accidents

5.2.1 General
Data have been analyzed for both Babkov coefficient and speed profile methods.
These methods have been elaborated in Chapter 3. Babkov coefficient for all the sections
on NH -58 in study area has been calculated and same are given in Appendix-C. In speed
profile method speed index (SI) for different sections of highway has been calculated.
The accident histogram and speeds profile for all sections has been drawn. Correlation
between Babkov coefficient (K) and Accident frequency(AF) and correlation between
AF and SI have also been made..
5.2.2 Calculation for babkov coefficient (K)

Total Babkov coefficient (K) is the product of partial accidents rates (K1, K2,
K3.....K14).The coefficients for curves of radii less than 50 m, 51 to 100 and more than
100 m and number of such locations are also mentioned. Similarly coefficient for location
of bridges is also shown in Table 5.3.
5.2.3 Accident histogram

The graph has been plotted between Babkov coefficient (K) and section of
highway Accident histogram for all section are given in Appendix-D.
65
5.2.4 Black spot identified by Babkov coefficient method
Table 5.4 - Accident Prone Section as per Babkov Method
S. No Section Location K( Radii<50) K (Radii. >50<100)
1 km234.00-235.00 49.36 20.43
2 km 239.00-242.00 75.03 31.06
3 km 242.00-243.00 84.11 34.82
4 km 245.00-247.00 49.36 20.43
5 km 247.00-249.00 43.44 17.98
6 km 249.00-250.00 75.03 31.06
7 km 254.00-255.00 82.92 34.33
8 km 255.00-257.00 61.43 25.43
9 km 257.00-258.00 70.64 29.24
10 km2 60.00-261.00 43.88 18.16
11 km 262.00-263.00 43.88 18.16
12 km267.00-268.00 78.39 32.45
13 km270.00-271.00 69.62 28.82
14 km 272.00-273.00 60.26 24.95
15 km 273.00-276.00 75.76 31.36
16 km2 76.00-277.00 69.62 28.82
17 km 277.00-279.00 52.07 21.55
18 km284.00-285.00 60.26 24.95
19 km 285.00-289.00 74.59 30.88
20 km289.00-290.00 80.73 33.42
21 km290.00-291.00 49.43 20.47
22 km296.00-298.00 62.01 25.67
23 km 298.00-300.00 48.56 20.1
24 km 307.00-308.00 58.5 24.22
25 km 323.00-325.00 41.24 17.07
26 km 332.00-333.00 336.38 139.26
66
In addition to above sections the bridges at following locations are hazardous and prone
to accidents.
Table 5.5 - Bridge Location Prone to Accident
S. Location Name of Type Of Bridge Span of Carriageway
No. Bridge Bridge Width (n)
(m)
1 234.686 Nargdu RSJ plate girder br with 10.36 3.60
RCC decking
2 244.340 Bhatik -do- 14.75 4.40
3 250.558 Dhar Gad -do- 8.60 3.65
4 252.413 Khuni gad RCC T beam br 17.39 4.25
5 259.843 Byasi Gad RCC T beam br 7.20 4.30
6 264.974 Kodiyala br RCC decking over girder 14.30 3.70
br
7 297.430 Santa Gad RCC T beam br 6.60 6.86
8 319.425 Lashmoli RCC T beam br 6.60 4.25
9 321.970 Gadudhara RCC T beam br 16.50 4.25
10 337.400 Sweet CC arch 6.10 4.25
Gadera
11 343.332 Deval Gad CC arch 7.62 4.88
12 345.120 Kaji Gadera CC arch 9.00 4.25
13 354.125 Khankara CC arch 11.00 4.25
5.2.5 Black spot identification from Speed Index Method

Speed Index for all the sections of highway are given at Appendix-E..On the basis
of speed index following section of highway with SI > 3 have been identified as accident
black spot.
Table 5.6 - Accident Prone Section by Speed Index Method
S. Mean Speed Grand Mean of Std. Dev. Of Speed
No Section Location (Si) Mean Speed mean Speed Index(SI)
1 km 249.00-250.00 48.71 35.071 9.85 3.39
2 Km267.00-268.00 48.32 30.839 10.08 3.74
3 Km270.00-271.00 41.49 30.569 10.50 3.04
4 Km290.00-291.00 41.44 30.866 9.22 3.15
5 km 293.00-295.00 41.36 31.320 9.17 3.09
6 km 307.00-308.00 41.14 31.633 8.78 3.08
7 km 308.00-310.00 41.42 31.850 8.80 3.09
8 km 311.00-323.00 43.24 31.952 8.82 3.28
67

9 km 329.00-332.00 62.59 32.604 9.66 5.11

-
10 km 339.00-340.00 54.79 32.677 10.07 4.20
11 km 342.00-343.00 46.72 32.899 10.07 3.37
12 km 349.00-350.00 57.05 33.198 10.38 4.30
13 km 353.00-354.00 53.42 33.577 10.54 3.88
14 km 360.00-361.00 56.22 34.022 10.77 4.06
5.2.6 Calculation of accident frequency (AF)

Accident per km was calculated from the accident data .The same is given in
Appendix-C.
5.2.7 The graph is plotted between Babkov Coefficient (K) for horizontal radii 50 to
100 and Accident Frequency. Also graph between Babkov Coefficient (K) for narrow
bridge location and Accident Frequency of that section. The correlation between Babkov
Coefficient (K) and Accident Frequency (AF ) is given in Fig. 5.10 to 5.11 for section of
highway 46 narrow bridge section respectively.
The correlation given as follows;
Babkov Coefficient and accident /km
4.5
y c•0. D003x2 • 0.007Ix • 1.0618
127 = 0.719
3.5
2.5-
O
C
1.5
0.5 -
O
0

0 10 20 30 40 50 80 70 80 90
Babkov's Coefficient
Fig. 5.10 — Correlations between Babkov Coefficient Accident/Km.
68
Babkov Coefficient and Accident/km
y = -0.0002x2 0.0597i - 3.1113

R'=0.7861
Accident/km ofsec tion
50 100 150 200 250
Babkov Coefficient
Fig. 5.11 — Correlations between Babkov Coefficient Accident/Km. (Narrow Bridge)
AF = 0.0003x2 — 0.0071x + 1.0618 R2 = 0.719 (5.1)

AF = -0.0002 x2 + 0.0597 x — 3.113 R2 = 0.7861 (5.2)
5.2.8 Correlation between Speed Index (SI) and Accident Frequency (AF)
The graph is plotted between accident frequency (AF) and speed index (SI) of
sections is given in Fig. 5.12. The correlation between accident frequency (AF) and speed
index (SI) is given as under:
AF =1.3735x-0.8466, R2 = 0.7041
69
--- 1.3735x - 0.8466
6 R2 = 0.7041 •
5-
Accident Frequency (Accident/ km)
4 • •_ •-
3- • • • ••••••- • • • •
2 -• • -• - .4•••- -
1- • -•• -••- • ••
0
0. )0 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.
Speed Index
Fig. 5.12 - Correlation between SI and AF
Artificial Neural Network
Neuro Solution software was used for modeling the data. Details of input and output are
given in Appendix-F. Total eleven inputs were used to prepare the network and the same
are given below:
(a) Average Daily Traffic in pcu
(b) Average Daily Heavy Traffic in pcu
(c) Grade in percent
(d) Formation Width in m
(e) Pavement Width in m
(f) Lane Type
(g) Left Shoulder Width in m
(h) Right Shoulder Width in m
(i) Speed kmph
(j) Curve density of Horizontal curve of radii < 50 m
(k) Curve density of Horizontal curve of radii of >50 <100 m
70
The desired output was only one i.e. no of accidents. The data was divided into
training (60%), cross validation (10%) and testing (30%). The details of various network
tried and the MSE obtained is given in Table No 5.7. The trails were done with Tanh and
Sigmoid transfer function, one hidden layers, four to ten processing elements, Maximum
no. of Epoch 1000 to 3000. The trails were run to obtain network with minimum MSE
and maximum value of r. The details of test results obtained for the best four networks
are as given in Table 5.8.
Table 5.7 - Details of Network Trials
BB No 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10
Trial No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Hidden 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Layers
PEs 4 4 6 8 10 6 8 8
Transfer Tanh Sigmoid Sigmoid Sigmoid Sigmoid Tanh Sigmoid Sigmoid

Function
Max no of 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
Epoch
No of 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000
Epoch(T)
Min MSE(T) 0.0329 0.0138 0.0114 0.00907 0.00902 0.00196 0.00733 0.00703
Final 0.0329 0.0138 0.0114 0.00907 0.00902 0.00196 0.00733 0.00703

MSE(T)
No of 317 1000 1000 1000 1000 16 2000 2205
Epoch(X)
Min MSE 0.0078 0.00718 0.00625 0.00445 0.00462 0.0139 0.00291 0.00303
(X)
Final 0.0452 0.00718 0.00625 0.00445 0.00462 0.0651 0.00291 0.00311
MSE(X)
71
Table 5.8 - Details of Network Test Results
BB No 5 6 9 10
Trial No 4 5 7 8
Hidden Layers 1 1 1 1
PEs 8 10 8 8
Transfer Sigmoid Sigmoid Sigmoid Sigmoid
Function
Max no of 1000 1000 2000 3000
Epoch
Test No 1 2 3 4 •
MSE 0.8358 0.7752 0.81066 0.80819
NMSE 0.2593 0.24049 0.25149 0.250702
MAE 0.7853 0.72729 0.75874 0.75455
Min AE 0.01581 0.0160 0.08051 0.02291
Max AE 1.5426 1.7008 1.68485 1.82510

r 0.8744 0.88763 0.87003 0.86585
72
The graph showing actual output and network predicted out put is shown in Figs. 5.13 -
5.16.M
Desired Output and Actual Network Output
Total Accidents
Total Accidents Output
3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19
Exemplar
Fig. 5.13 — Test Trial 1
Total Accidents
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Exemplar
73
Total Accidents
I I I I
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Exemplar
Total Accidents
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Exemplar
It can be observed from the table No 5.10 that for Bread Board 6 and 10 is the best fit
results with MSE 0.7752 and0.8080819 and r value of 0.88763 and 0.86585 respectively.
74
CHAPTER - 6
REMEDIAL MEASURES FOR HILLY SECTION OF

NH-58
6.1 General
Safety on hill roads is an essential part of highway engineering. It is obvious that

safety on hill road is directly proportional to adherence to laid down geometric standards,
specification and traffic rules and any compromise or violation due to any reason on this
will result in a road of sub-standard norms or accident prone.
6.2 Causes of Accident

Driving on hills especially in adverse weather conditions is a complex, difficult
and tiring task. Accident occurs in hilly areas at places where the rhythm of motion
changes unexpectedly for a driver, such occurrences are frequent on hill roads due to the
following -
(a) Maneuver over sharp curves of small radii with inadequate sight distances needs
frequent deceleration and acceleration.
(b) Curves have to be negotiated in varying speeds due to varying degrees of
curvature and applying brake when entering a curve and accelerating at the exit.
(c) Alternating entry from major valley into a side-valley, crossing of streams by
narrow bridges, culverts causeways, etc.
(d) Steep grades and alternating UP and Down grades and negotiation on high
altitudes.
6.3 Accident Prevention and Reduction

An important road safety concept for planning safety on roads is the distinction
between Accident Prevention and Accident Reduction.
Accident Prevention needs improved planning and design of new roads and related
developments to minimize road accidents and casualties. The schemes are not only
designed with safety in mind but also they are checked by impartial safety specialists
(road safety audit) to ensure that safety considerations have been met.
75
Accident Reduction involves the application of cost effective measures to the existing
road network particularly those sites, sections or areas with known accident problems.
Safety on hill roads, like in plain, is dependent on the same factors i.e. Driver,
Vehicle and Environmental conditions. However, environmental factors affects a hill
roads very much, due to severity of climatic and terrain conditions, like torrential rains
and consequents slides in the forms of mud flow, rock fall, rolling boulders, avalanches
glacier activity icing effect etc: Measures to improve safety on hill roads follow the usual
pattern of Three E's i.e. Engineering, Enforcement and Education measures in more
vigilant way. The study has been emphasis on engineering measures for a safe and
comfort travel on hill roads.
Road condition plays a very significant part in road safety. Elements of a highway
that have a direct impact on safety are vertical and horizontal alignment, system of
layout, pavement characteristics, illumination, and road signage, protective attenuators
effect of these in combination and not individually determines the level of safety.
6.4 Engineering Measures

Engineering measures to improve safety in hill roads can be adopted after assessing
the impact of various factors:
a. Geometric design measure which ensure adequate width, curve radii, easy grade and
sight distance.
b. Engineering design measure to deal specific and exclusive condition in hills. This
includes design and provision of good drainage system, protection like parapet,
Railings, snow fences, snow shelters, rolling boulder buffer (netting) etc.
c. Traffic control device like sign, signal, pavement marking, delineators, advance
public warning system etc.
d. Maintenance response and safety monitoring.
6.5 Effect of Roadway Conditions on Traffic Safety

Driver's discipline is a major condition for traffic flows. It is assumed that a
careful driver takes into account time of the day, weather conditions, vehicle conditions
and roadway conditions when he chooses a speed, that he obeys traffic regulations and
76
follows the indications of traffic signs. It is assumed also that the driving experience
prevents him adopting wrong maneuvers in passing or otherwise impairing the safety of
the traffic flow.
Of no lesser importance for traffic safety are those safety standards which have
been incorporated into the highway facility at the design stage or during improvements
and maintenance activities. They should match the expectation of the drivers and
guarantee him from unexpected changes in roadway condition conditions which might
lead to traffic accidents. A safe facility results when the design standards employed are
consistent with the design speed, the horizontal alignment and grades match each other
smoothly, and the riding qualities provided at the construction stage are maintained in
service at various environmental conditions.
Designing separate elements of roadway crown, grade line, and alignment
according to standard is only a half way to a safe and conveniently drivable facility. The
designer should not overlook that these elements should be consistent. That is, they
should be matched with each other so that the vehicle may travel on the facility at a
constant speed or with gradually changing low accelerations and decelerations. Failing to
observe the consistency requirement, that is, connecting highway sections, each perfectly
conforming to the design standards , without due consideration of the matching may
create hazardous locations on the facility. If a highway is laid out all the way by large
radius curves than a single sharp curve interspersed between flat curves will be a site of a
high accident,rate.
6.6 Traffic Service Facilities

The facilities servicing public traveling in cars, buses and trucks are those to
which we have accustomed on modern highways- they provide motor fuel for engines
and food and shelters for drivers and passengers and therefore are the integral part of any
arterial highway. More specifically they include: Gas filling stations, Abutting cafeteria,
restaurants, highway hotels motels motorist camps, office and living building of highway
maintenance organization and police organizations.
77
6.7 Traffic Signs and Marking
Traffic signs and pavement marking perform regulatory, warning and guiding
functions. Regulatory signs give notice to users of traffic laws of regulations. Warning
signs direct the user's attention to condition on, or adjacent to, a street or highway that is
potentially hazardous to traffic operations. Guide sign indicate route designations,
directions, distances, points of interest and other relevant in formations.
The main idea underlying the appearance of a traffic sign is that it must be
perceivable at first glance and legible at large distances. Motorists should be warned not
only on the permanent roadway conditions but also on temporal changes which reflect on
the allowable speed. On high mountainous roads where snow drifts and avalanches are
frequent occasions the control signs may energize the sign to show that the mountainous
pass is closed. F Arrangement for fixing of object marker is shown in Fig. 6.1
WW1
t% ORANGE 'wimp 30mm WIDE
WIDEN j00
Wed WIDE WHITE BACKGROUND
OBAMGE SO f ORANGE REFLECTORS
DVILECTOB
500 SO O PAI N TED

WHITE S00 so+ PAINTED WHITE
450
LJ . c .
10
10
{-,--300 -44
(b)
10-22S-44
5WHiTE
BACKGROUND
140— 52 5
WHITEGROUND
75
75+ ORANGE 225 7S ORANGE
525 7st:sm./mos REFLECTORS
SOO ANGLE SSZ SSII

SO ö PAINTED PAINTED WHITE
wool TE
450 450 CEMENT CONCRETE

CEMENT
CONE, i_
100
X300--1
(d)
Fig. 6.1 — Typical Design of Object Marker
78
To improve the visibility of signs after dark, their legends and symbols are written
with light reflecting paints. The reflection is effected by embedding into the paint tiny
glass balls. The technology of making such signs is developed to a high extent and the
signs can be seen in headlight glare from a far distance. Typical design of hazard marker
is shown in Fig. 6.2.. These are placed on the stretches where road width reduces due to
narrow bridge etc.
f*--3 0 0-4,4 Ho-30 0 -el
900
300
:
i!, TAIN 2L 5SX55X 11
TED WHITE

,..,. „.,.
...
,... I hi-20 GRADE
450 't. M ,
.
.11 %
.•
CONCRETE
• ''' t
--; :e 1:41t.,
Is*-300 -.4 i-e-3 0 0 —1.1

LEFT OF TRAFFIC RIGHT OF TRAFFIC
Fig. 6.2 - Typical Design of Hazard Marker
Traffic marking: Marking consists of paint or some other material (strip of

thermoplastic soft and sticky when warmed) placed on the pavement, curb, or object to
convey traffic regulations and warnings to drivers. Pavement marking separate traffic
lanes delineates stop lines and directions of turns for vehicle. Pavements marking are
especially valuable at highway sections where sight distances are inadequate. By choice
of width and type of longitudinal markings, the traffic engineer is able to convey a variety
79

of messages to drivers. For example, broken lines are permissive in character. solid lines
are restrictive, double lines indicate maximum restrictiveness, the width of the line
indicate degree of emphasis.
Traffic signs and marking significantly improve the traffic flow, but one should
not overlook that effectiveness of a marking largely depends on the discipline of
motorists.
To improve the visibility of changes in alignment in bad weather and after dark,
highway agencies install small marked posts, solid or void of plastic, concrete timber, at
shoulder edges where the road changes its alignments, along high fills or deep side
ditches with steep banks, where leaving the roadway would be dangerous. These posts
can not retain a vehicle deviating from roadway and there-fore are not designed to absorb
vehicular shocks. At straight sections the post are distanced at 50 meters and on curves
spaced 25 to 5 m apart depending on the curve radius.
-1106 t*- V/WITE

-11
0014--
SQUARE a 4
NEILECTOR WRITE 200 REFLECTORISED
7s REFLECTOR j PANEL (TEL LOW)
SOX 10 ertm

1200 50+ GALVONI 2E0
1200 STEEL PIPE
CC POST • RCC POST
. •
3S0 350 r.,;, ; 350 I 350 I' I
.s.
..•
1141 ..I
• '#I#e,
I
1, .:1 CeNDIT 4 •• . I 100X20X5
430 i .1 I 7. -.1 1..; CONC. • I. • y■-• M FLAT
1 ilarar I WELDED
.1 • ‘..1 T C PIPE
WO I. ill
1+-300-01 kb-300 --4-1 1*--300-.4
(a) Delineator without (b) With circular (c) with Square (d) Amber coloured

reflectors reflectors reflectors Panel Delineators
Fig. 6.3 - Typical Design of Roadway Delineators
80
Layout or fixing arrangement of various type of delineator with or without reflectors
are shown in Fig. 6.3 above.
6.8 Guardrails and Parapets

In places where edging away the road would entail severe damage to the vehicle
and health hazard for the occupants, the road should be sided by guardrails various types
of guardrail are in use at the present time. The most important of these are the beam
guardrails, the cable guardrail and the concrete parapet. Mountainous highways with
adjacent steep down slopes are flanked by massive stone or concrete parapets. Layout and
details of parapet walls on roads and on retaining are depicted in Fig. 6.4 below.
PARAPET ON ROAD R. R.MASONRY

0.6-1.0 m ( IN cm ) 04Sm
2.Scm C.C. COPING
.41 26m
ROAD LEVEL
1S cm P C.0 OR MASONRY
PARAPET ON RETAINING 1YAL L

04 m
11 1••—•-•1
2 On. / 2•0 m
0,6m 2-Scrn CC COPING
RETAINING WALL
N/A
ELEVATION
Fig. 6.4 - Parapet walls
Reinforced concrete longitudinal barriers, which have become widely used are
relate to the strong guardrail variety. They absorb energy of the vehicle by flexing its
tires. These act as a strong barriers which effectively re-direct the vehicle bumping into
it. They also fit well into the surrounding landscapes and thereby facilitate the guidance
81
of the drivers and they are relatively cheap because of their high corrosion resistance.
Their major disadvantages are that they remain practically undeflected under a crash.
I.-10 cm SOACC POST OR ANGLE IRON
ROAD LEVEL
20 cm x20 cm PC C FOUNDATION
E LEVATiON
Fig. 6.5 - Typical Design of Railings
Fig. 6.6 — Layout of Crash Barriers, Parapet Walls & Guard Stone on Ground
82
6.9 Road Safety Barrier
The most advanced type of safety barrier is the steel section beam guardrail: say
"W" cross sections. Steel beams are strong enough in deflecting on a crash, as several
sections of guardrails take part in the deflection, so that a crashing vehicle is decelerated
at low overloads for occupants.
The purpose of road restrain systems is to prevent a vehicle from veering o. the
road and to restrain it from entering dangerous area to avoid or reduce the injuries of
vehicle occupants and other road traffic participants and objects.
The barriers are usually made of steel, although higher containment levels can
sometimes be achieved only by using concrete blocks. The evaluated road safety barrier
have to fulfill the requirements as laid down in the European Standard EN 1317 ( for
European countries ) made of construction steel S 235 (St 37-2 according to DIN) and
comprises a W-shaped guardrail, distance spacer and post rammed into the soil to the
depth corresponding to 2/3 of its length. The W-shaped guardrail is made of 3 mm thick
metal sheet with improved strength characteristics. The usual length of the W-guardrail
segments is 4200 mm and the splice length equals 200 mm. The guardrail segments are
longitudinally connected by bolts. The distance spacer is hexagonal shaped, made of 4
mm thick metal sheet and measures 260 mm in length and 220 mm in height The post is
C-shaped with dimensions 55 mm • 100 mm • 4 mm and is 1900 mm long. The distance
between posts depends on the required containment level and can be equal to 1.33, 2 or 4
m. Posts are always oriented with the closed profile face towards the traffic flow
direction.
W-guardrail and distance spacers are joined with M16 bolts of strength class 5.8,
while the distance spacer and the posts are joined with M10 bolts of the same strength
class. The later are supposed to fail in the early stages of the crash so that the guardrail is
released from the post instead of being pulled down
The main safety barrier parts, guardrails, posts, distant spacers and additional
reinforcements (Fig. 2.15) are modeled in detail, while the bolt connections are
represented with special beam elements.
The cable guardrail design is such that several adjacent sections gives in when an
errant vehicle plunges into guardrails, so that a larger length of the structure takes part in
83
absorbing the vehicle energy. These guardrails are advantageous in that they do not
accumulate snow piles in winter; however, they are poorly visible in fog or at night.
Another disadvantage is that the cables are multilative for crashing passenger cars.
Photographs of various protective works i.e. parapet walls, guard stone, delineators etc is
Given in Appendix-G.
A view of protection works in study area is shown in Fig. 6.6. & 6.7.
Fig. 6.7 - View of "W" Beam Safety Barrier in Study Area
6.10 Traffic Safety at Night

Traffic safety substantially decreases at night time. On arterials the number of
traffic accidents after dark is about equal to the accident rate at day time, while traffic
volume and speeds are much lower at night i.e. by 5 to 7 km/h.
Electric illumination on highways reduces the accident rate by 25 to 35 percent,
but is a costly installation. The cost may be as high as 6 percent to the highway
investment cost, simply because large amount of work and expensive materials are
needed, such as laying out electric cables, erection of poles, etc.
The requirement to highway illumination is based on the condition that a driver
will be able to recognize the outlines of an obstacle on the roadway background at the
illuminated area. This condition necessitates that the illumination be 1.5 to 2 lx which is
considerably lower than the illumination required for a detailed examination of obstacle
84

at close distance. For dark objects on asphaltic concrete surface, the illumination should
be at least 2 to 3.5 lx.
The visibility of an obstacle on a traveled way depends on its size and the contrast
between the object's color and the pavement background. Dark objects are well visible
on a concrete pavement, and this light pavement contrasts well with dark roadsides and
improve the safety of travel after dark. The situation, however, changes when the
pavement is no longer new and receives black traffic coverage necessitating specific
measures to improve the visibility of the pavement edges.
Night driving may be improved by applying pavement markings and installing
delineators which are essentially small reflectors (light reflecting films) mounted on thin
posts flanking the road. Delineators are especially valuable when there is change in
horizontal alignment, where the alignment can be confusing, and where there is a
transition in pavement width. Introducing delineators of different colors facilities guiding
of motorists.
W14111 SQUARE
AC/LECTOR l7fHI TE REFLECTORI seo
SO IZ.WLECTOR PatiELLY ELLOW
eax $0MM
120 0 SO # GALY0141 ZED

STEEL PIPE
CC POST ACC POST
1.:te. .-•1 1 . , , • • • 11
I' e ... . .
KO .•• *.I 3S 0 I'
I ,"le.
' V
i. t"a..- CS3ENT 4 • . I 100 X 20X 5
1... . 1 ,-.. I CONC. 1 . I 1 1/1/- 14 S FLAT
• •'.L.,:.1,,-. I I WELDED
I- •b- •• .:1 I r"Ir to I T C PIPE
L ' • -J 0 ....... j
1'0-300 -.4
Fig. 6.8 — Typical Design of Various Delineators
The visibility of obstacles in headlight glare diminishes for lower size objects. So,
an object 1.5 m in height is visible at a distance of 100 to 110 m, whereas an obstruction
0.5 m high at a distance of 50 to 60 m only.
85
The standards for electric illumination are established depending on traffic
volumes. The average luminance of a dry pavement should be at least 0.5 to 2 candelas
per square meter (nit).
The number and placement of luminaries are determined by lightning engineering
procedure, tending to even out the light flux over the roadway so that no intermittent
bright and dark spots result.
6.11 Constraints Imposed on Highway Users

To protect considerable funds spent on highway construction and operation,
highway authorities open highway facilities for sound vehicles load capacity and size not
above those for which the road was designed. Highway authorities may in agreement
with highway police organizations limit or deny access to the facility if this needed by
traffic safety, called for by climatic conditions, highway maintenance or other important
activities. Such constructions or closures should be announced in due time to all
interested organizations, establishments and public.
Vehicular travel is allowed only within the roadway or bridge decks. The use of
shoulder is permitted for emergency stops and for adequate clearance of the oncoming
traffic on narrow road ways. Driver should not transport unpacked loads which may litter
the roads, and discharge of such loads on roads is forbidden. Dirty tires of vehicle
entering a highway from muddy construction sites or wet fields should be cleaned of the
soil.
New access roads may be organized only at site agreed upon with highway
agencies and constructed in accord with .the existing construction codes. A placement of
advertisement and boards irrelevant with traffic safety engineering is not allowed either
on roads or on roadside recreation safety zones.
Motorists are not allowed any activities within the roadway as a result of which
oil and fuel may spill on the pavement. For long stops and halts for the night, drivers
should leave the roadway for the right-of—way. Tall vehicle may be allowed on roadway
only in agreement with relevant department. The bearing capacity of a pavement varies
with season of the year and the demolishing effect of the traffic is governed not only by
the wheel load itself, but also by the size of tire, inflation pressure, number of load
86
application and in certain cases speed and minimal spacing between vehicles. If the gross
weight of a vehicle exceeds the maximum allowable load only insignificantly, it can be
passed trough a structure with permission of concerned authorities with speed below 10
km/h. Crawler vehicle and vehicles with steel studded wheels or stud tires are prohibited
from rigid and high type flexible pavements. Studded tires are permitted as an exception
in period of icy or packed snow roads. Such vehicles should use special summer earth
roads, crawler trails, or parallel earth roads. In locations where crawler machines
systematically cross the pavement it must be surfaced with steel sheets.
The purpose of road restrain systems is to prevent a vehicle from veering o. the
road and to restrain it from entering dangerous area to avoid or reduce the injuries of
vehicle occupants and other road traffic participants and objects. To provide appropriate
safety levels for impacting vehicle occupants, the safety barriers should be
designed so as to absorb as much impact energy as possible through their deformation
and at the same time maintain their integrity_
6.12 Estimating Safety Benefits of Road Improvements
There are several methods that can be used to evaluate the economic feasibility of
implementing a road safety improvement. One of the most frequently used evaluation
methods is the benefit—cost ratio (BCR), which is defined as the ratio between the present
value of benefits and the present value of countermeasure costs. Improvements that have
a BCR greater than 1.0 are considered economically feasible.
6.13 Benefit Cost Analysis
Total length of curves in 49 km and per 10 km is tabulated in Table 7.1. In the

stretches for circular curve and transition curve, it is proposed to install crash barriers,
whereas in straight portion parapet walls are proposed. Parapet walls covered 2/3"1 length
of straight section. Hazard marker on both side of bridge approach and direction sign on
curve, and average two nos. information sign board proposed in each kilometer.
Delineators have been proposed on the parapet walls, to delineate the edge of roadway.
The net requirement of all these protection work is worked out after deducting the
87
existing on the highway in study area. The average cost for calculated as per the details of
BRO and total cost of protection work for one Km length of road comes out Rs 14:98
Lacs as given in Table 6.1.
The first cost of a capital improvement is converted into equivalent uniform
annual cost by the formula:
[ i (14-i)"
C = P = P (CRF)
(1+ On
Where,
Cr= receipt in a uniform series for n periods to cover P at a rate of interest i

P= first cost of improvement of an elements of a highway
i = rate.of interest per unit period
n = period of time in number of interest periods life span
CRF= capital recovery factors
The total annual highway cost is sum of annual cost of improvement works at
i=10%, n = life span 15 years CRF = 0.1314 and yearly maintenance cost Salvage value
of some of items at the end of interest period is not considered. Annual cost of
maintenance for protection works is taken 50% of direct expenditure for maintenance
scale 1.
Table 6.1 acdSt Pro-Le-c_fiob worKs
SI Description AJU Total Available Net Av. Total
No. on Requirement Cost(Rs.) Cost(Rs.)
Ground
1 Av. Length M 4787 - - - -
of curves
2 Straight M 5213 - - - -
Length
3 Length of M 4787 270 4517 2990 13505830
crash barrier
4 Parapets No. 2294 1630 664 604.42 401335
5 Delineators No. 2294 240 2054 500 1027000
6 Length of M 60 30 30 500 15000

railings
7 Direction No. 682 100 582 1362.34 792882
Signs
88
8 Area of SQM 240 120 120 1501.00 180120
centre line
9 Hazard Nos 40 20 20 1362.34 27247
Marker
10 Information Nos 20 10 10 1330.27 13303
signs
11 Guard Stone Nos 1000 700 300 61.00 18300
12 Grand Total 15981917

. .
15 Av. Cost/km 1598192
HIGHWAY COST

1. Total Cost of Improvement 15.98 lacs
2.09 lacs
Works at I = 10%, n = 15 yrs, CRF = 0.1314 = 15.98 x 0.1314
2. Annual Cost of Improvement of Protection Works (50% of direct expenditure on
maintenance for maintenance scale I
= 0.50 x 29000 = 14,500 0.15 =

Total Annual Highway Cost 2.24 lacs
Table 6.2. - Estimate of Benefit Cost due to Provision of Protection Works

Type of Accident No. of Estimated average cost in Cost of Total Cost
Accident/ Rs. (lacs) Accident of
year (1999 evaluation of road X*1.7 Accident
accident case for India)=X (escalation In
for seven Rs.(Lacs)
years)
Fatal 42 5.35 9.095 382.2
Serious Injury 43 2.43 4.131 177.59
Minor Injury 17 0.19 0.32 5.44
Damages to Buses 5 0.47 0.80 4.0
Damages to Tractor 8 0.49 0.83 6.64
Damages to Cars 14 0.16 3.78 3.78
Damages to Two 4 0.04 0.07 0.028

Wheeler
Grand Total Cost of Accidents 579.68
89
Considering 41% reeducation in accident in view of provision of protection works
as per study of (1) , the total cost of benefit works out Rs 579.68x0.41=237.67 lacks for a
stretches of 130 km Total annual benefit from improvement is R = 1.83 lacs
Benefit — cost ratio = 1.83 / 2.24
The Benefit Cost Ratio = 0.82
Since Benefit Cost Ratio is near 1.0 and keeping in view of necessity of protection
works for reduction of accidents on the highway in study area is recommend strongly to
take up in a phase wise manners.
Details of Accident Before & After Study
35
30
25
t' 20 —12— No of accident
—'s— Death
7
-*
■ 15
—A— Injured
10
5
No.
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
years
Fig. 6.9 — Details of Accident Before & After Study
Another approach for evaluating the safety measure is before and after study.
Double lane work for km 342- km 363.675 have been complete and it shows decline in
accident trends , however , fatality is more and this may be due to increase in speed in
this area. Fig. 6.9 shows the accident on above stretch from 2001 to 2006. Although
accident in 2001 is less but this is due to non availability of accident data from one police
station.
90
CHAPTER - 7
CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
Much interest exists in the area of accident rate estimation, and the
identification of the various factors affecting this rate. Much of the literature reviews
reveal that the main concentration in accident analysis is in identifying the factors
affecting accident occurrence and secondarily in predicting them. Based on study
following conclusions are made:
7.1 Conclusion on Factors Responsible for Accidents

(i) Indian road traffic accident scenario is found to have an increasing trend with
verifying degree of severity mainly influenced by road network characteristics, road
user's behavior and environmental factors in last three decades.
(ii) Various traffic and geometric variables were seen to have significant influence on
occurrence of accidents. These are type of road/ shoulders, width of lane &
shoulders, horizontal & vertical curves, grade, terrain, road structure, traffic
volume, speed, characteristics of driver and, vehicle etc.
(iii) Due to topography of hilly regions, the fatality rate is high and survival chances are
very less.
(iv) On an average quality and maintenance standards of roads and vehicles warranted
in hilly roads are of best standard.
(v) Horizontal curves have approximately 30% of road accidents. Combination of

vertical and horizontal are more accident prone.
(vi)Combined effect of grade, curve have more frequently to the straight segment of
road. In general sight distance is depended on radius of curvature
(vii)The rainy season is vulnerable to the road accidents due to skidding of vehicle on
wet road surface, poor visibility due to fog, poor road condition due to landslides,
91
lack of drainage, sinking etc. Quality of tyres is predominating effect on road
surface.
(viii) One major cause for road accidents observed was drivers fault.
(ix) Performance level of driver reduces over the time of period. Fatigue results in
reduced human efficiency and for most of the drivers probably it will be greater at
night.
(x) Alcohol and drugs affects driver's performance adversely.
(xi) Extreme climate and geometric conditions in hilly area required completely
physical fit driver.
7.2 Conclusion Based on Analysis of Accident

(i) On the basis of Babkov's coefficient methods, 26 locations have been
identified as accident black spots with K value from 41.24 to 336.38.
Relationship in Babkov's Coefficient with Accident Frequency is given AF =
0.0003x2 — 0.0071x + 1.0618 R2 = 0.719.
(ii) On the basis of speed index method 14 stretches has been identified as accident
prone with Speed Index 3.04 to 5.11.
(iii) All the narrow bridges at 13 locations are accident prone locations. Relationship
in Babkov's Coefficient with Accident Frequency for narrow bridge locations is
given as AF = -0.0002x2 + 0.0597x — 3.113 R2 = 0.7861.
(iv) For modeling of accident and geometric design parameters relationship ANN
technology gives best fit results. Bread Board 6 and 10 is the best fit results with
MSE 0.7752 and0.8080819 and r value of 0.88763 and 0.86585 respectively.
7.3 Recommendations

(i) Nature, severity and frequency of road accidents in hilly areas to be studied in a
scientific manner.
92
(ii) A scientific approach using the help of model is required for study of accident
causes, prediction and remedial measure for prevention of accident in hilly
areas.
(iii) The systemic collection & recording of accident data is required for better
results of analysis, for which a training program is recommended for the persons
involved in it.
(iv). An accident rating scheme for sample stretches on NH-58 in hilly region can be
developed to prioritize accident improvement measures.
(v) The present study has been carried up to Rurdraprayag (Km 363.675). It is
recommended to carried out study on a total length of NH-58 in hilly region.
(v) All the narrow bridges are recommended to widen to 10m immediately.
(vi) Protection works proposed on road can be taken up in a phase manner or same
can be included in double lane work under progress.
93
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Meta — Analysis of Evidence From Evaluation Studies, Accid. Anal. And
Prey , Vol 27, No.4,pp.523-549,1995
97
35. S.M.A1-Alawi, G.A. Ali & C.S.Bakheit.(1996) " A novel approach for traffic
accident analysis and predication using artificial neural networks" Road &
Transport Research , A journal of Australian (New Zealand) Research &
Practice Vol No 2 .
36. Silyanov V.V. (1972) "Traffic Safety on Rural Roads of the USSR"
Transport-Communication Monthly Review, November pp 14-17.
37. Stewart Roberson & Lisa Aullman- Hall (1991) "Incorporating for
Evaluation the Relative Need for Truck Route Improvement, Study of
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA).
38. Sunil Gupta (1996) M. Tech. Project Report, Civil Engineering Department,
lIT Roorkee, Roorkee.
39. T. W. Forbes (1958) "Some Factors Affecting Driver Efficiency At night"
Proceeding of Highway Research Board Washington, D. C pp 14-27.
40. Tarek Sayed, Walid Abdelwahab & Frank Navin (1995) "Identifying
Accident Prone Location Fuzzy Pattern Recognition" Journal of
Transportation Engineering pp 352-358.
41. Vivan Robert R and A. Veeragavan (2003), "Hazard Rating Scores for
Prioritization of Accident Prone Sections on Highways" Email :
vi vianrobertkr?,red ffrna i I . corn, vivanrobert@yahoo.com.
42. Wayne T. Vanwagoner (1956) "Highway Environmental Safety Design
Practices: A Topical Review Paper Presented at the 49th Annual Meeting
HRB 16-20 pp 14-27.
98
43. William Thomas Hollowell (1995) Evolution of Vehicle Crashworthiness
as Influenced by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration"
Transportation Research Circular Number 435 , TRB, National Research
Council, Washington, D. C
44. Wm E. Willey,(1956) "Survey of Downhill Speeds of Trucks on Mountain
Grades" Proceeding of Highway Research Board Washington, D. C pp
322- 329
45. Wm E. Willey,(1958) "Survey of Uphill Speeds of Trucks on Mountain
Grades" Proceeding of Highway Research Board Washington, D. C pp
304- 310.
99
APPENDIX-A
S. Different Relative Values
No. Parameters accident rates
1 Daily 500 1000 3000 5000 7000 >9000
Traffic
volume
K1 0.4 0.5 0.75 1.0 1.4 1.7
2. Roadway 4.5 5.5 6 7.5 >8.5
Width,m
K2(reveted 2.2 1.5 1.35 1 0.8
shoulders)
K2(unreveted 4 2.75 2.5 1.5 1
shoulders)
3. Pavement 0.5 1.5 2 3
Width, m
K3 2.2 1.4 1.2 1
4. Grade % 2 3 5 7 8
K4(undivided 1 1.25 2.5 2.8 3.0
highway)
K4( divided 1 1.0 1.25 1.4 1.5
highway)
5. Horizontal <50 100 150 200- 400- 1000-
curve radii, 300 600 2000
m
K5 10 5.4 4 2.25 1.6 1.25
6. Horizontal 100 200 300 400 500
sight
distance, m
K6 3 2.3 1.7 1.2 1.0
K6' ( over 4 2.9 2.0 1.4 1.0
vertical
crests)
7. Bridge -1 equal +1m +2m
roadway
width minus .
approach
width
K7 6 3 1.8 1.0
8. Tangent 3 5 10 15 20 >25
Length, km
K8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.9 2
9. Intersections <1000 1600- 3500- 5000-
at grade 3500 5000 7000
with daily
traffic of
K9 1.5 2.0 3 4
10 Type of Grade At grade, with cross-road volume/total
intersection separation crossing, %
<10 10-20 >20
K10 0.35 1.5 3.0 4.0
11. Lateral sight >60 60-40 40-30 30-20 <20
distance at
grade . -
intersection
.
from access
road, m
Kll 1.0 1.1 1.65 2.5 10
12. Number of Undivided highway divided
lanes
2 3 4 4
K12 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.65
13. Clearance 2.5 5 7.5 10
from
residential
frontage
(m), and
facilities
within the
spacing
Frontage walks walks none
roads
K13 2.5 5 7.5 10
14. Coefficient 0.2-0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.75
of friction
Pavement slippery Dry no scored Very
Condition film gritty
K14 2.5 2.0 1.3 1 1.0 0.75

DETAILS OF SUB-SECTION APPENDIX-B
SI No _ Section id Total Babkov's Coefficient

Radius of <50 >50<100 >100 For Bridges
Curve(m)
1 49.36 20.43
km234.00-235.00
2 km235.00-238.00 39.49 16.35
3 km 238.00-239.00 39.49 16.35
4 km 239.00-242.00 75M3 31.06
5 km 242.00-243.00 84.11 34.82
6 km 243.00-245.00 39.49 16.35
7 km 245.00-247.00 49.36 20.43
8 km 247.00-249.00 43.44 17.98
9 km 249.00-250.00 75.03 31.06
10 km 250.00-254.00 39.49 16.35
11 km 254.00-255.00 82.92 34.33
12 km 255.00-257.00 61.43 25.43
13 km 257.00-258.00 70.64 29.24
14 km 258.00-260.00 29.25 12.11
15 km2 60.00-261.00 43.88 18.16
16 km 261.00-262.00 29.25 12.11
17 km 262.00-263.00 43.88 18.16
18 km 263.00-264.00 62.3 25.79
19 km264.00-266.00 29.25 12.11
20 km266.00-267.00 62.3 25.79
21 km267.00-268.00 78.39 32.45

22 km 268.00-270.00 81.9 33.91
23 km270.00-271.00 69.62 28.82
24 • km271.00-272.00 35.1 14.53
25 km 272.00-273.00 60.26 24.95
26 km 273.00-276.00 75.76 31.36
27 km2 76.00-277.00 69.62 28.82
28 km 277.00-279.00 52.07 21:55
29 km279.00-280.00 33.05 13.68
30 km 280.00-282.00 29.25 12.11
31 km282.00-284.00 33.93 14.05
32 km284.00-285.00 60.26 24.95
33 km 285.00-289.00 74.59 30.88
34 km289.00-290.00 80.73 33.42
35 km290.00-291.00 49.43 20.47 37.9
36 km291.00-293.00 29.25 12.11
37 km 293.00-295.00 36.56 15.14
38 km295.00-296.00 29.25 12.11
39 km296.00-298.00 62.01 25.67 77.02
40 km 298.00-300.00 48.56 20.1 36.18
41 km 300.00-303.00 29.25 12.11
42 km303.00-306.00 29.25 12.11
43 km 306.00-307.00 29.25 12.11
44 km 307.00-308.00 58.5 24.22

45 km 308.00-310.00 29.25 12.11 21.8
46 km 310.00-311.00 36.56 15.14
47 km 311.00-323.00 29.25 12.11 134.55 134.55
48 km 323.00-325.00 41.24 17.07 40.37
49 km 325.00-329.00 29.25 12.11 40.37 21.8 21.8
50 km 329.00-332.00 29.25 12.11
51 km 332.00-333.00 336.38 139.26
52 km 333.00-339.00 292.5 121.1 726,57
53 km 339.00-340.00 32.18 13.32
54 km 340.00-342.00 29.25 12.11
55 km 342.00-343.00 23.4 9.69
56 km 343.00-348.00 18 7.45 82.8 82.8
57 km 348.00-349.00 25.92 10.73
58 km 349.00-350.00 18 7.45
59 km 350.00-353.00 45 18.63
60 km 353.00-354.00 30.92 12.59
61 km 354.00-360.00 18 7.45 82.8 7.45
62 km 360.00-361.00 22.5 9.32
63. km 361.00- 18 7.45

363.575
DETAILS OF ACCIDENTS / KM. APPENDIX-C
Si No Section id Accidents/km
Radius of
Curve(m)
1 1.7
km234.00-235.00
2 km235.00-238.00 1.67
3 km 238.00-239.00 1.3
4 km 239.00-242.00 1.67
5 km 242.00-243.00 3
6 km 243.00-245.00 0
7 km 245.00-247.00 1.5
8 km 247.00-249.00 1.5
9 km 249.00-250.00 1.77
10 km 250.00-254.00 0
11 km 254.00-255.00 1.76
12 km 255.00-257.00 1.25
13 km 257.00-258.00 2
14 km 258.00-260.00 0
15 km2 60.00-261.00 1
16 km 261.00-262.00 1.5
17 km 262.00-263.00 1.6
18 km 263.00-264.00 1.4
19 km264.00-266.00 1.2
20 km266.00-267.00 1.5
21 km267.00-268.00 1.8
22 km 268.00-270.00 2.5
23 km270.00-271.00 3
24 km271.00-272.00 1.7
25 km 272.00-273.00 2.3
26 km 273.00-276.00 2.7
27 km2 76.00-277.00 2
28 km 277.00-279.00 0
29 km279.00-280.00 1
30 km 280.00-282.00 1.25
31 km282.00-284.00 1.5
32 km284.00-285.00 2
33 km 285.00-289.00 1
34 km289.00-290.00 4
35 km290.00-291.00 1.6
36 km291.00-293.00 1.4
37 km 293.00-295.00 1.5
38 km295.00-296.00 1
39 km296.00-298.00 1.9
40 km 298.00-300.00 1.5
41 km 300.00-303.00 1
42 km303.00-306.00 1
43 km 306.00-307.00 1
44 km 307.00-308.00 2.5
45 km 308.00-310.00 0
46 km 310.00-311.00 3
47 km 311.00-323.00 0.25
48 km 323.00-325.00 1.9
49 km 325.00-329.00 1.5
50 km 329.00-332.00 0
51 km 332.00-333.00 1.2
52 km 333.00-339.00 0.75
53 km 339.00-340.00 1
54 km 340.00-342.00 1.5
55 km 342.00-343.00 2
56 km 343.00-348.00 0
57 km 348.00-349.00 1.8
58 km 349.00-350.00 2
59 km 350.00-353.00 2
60 km 353.00-354.00 1.5
61 km 354.00-360.00 1.3
62 km 360.00-361.00 1.67
63 km 361.00- 0.83
363.575
APPENDIX - D
ACCIDENTS HISTOGRAM

Curve radii<50 m
99.ZL
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APPENDIX-E
S/No Standard
Grand Mean Devition
Mean of mean of mean SI=(Si-S+2
Section id Speed(Si) speed(S) speeds Stdev)/Stdev
1 km234.00-235.00 23.68
2 km235.00-238.00 45.51 34.595 15.43 2.71
3 km 238.00-239.00 35.42. 34.870 10.92 2.05
4 km 239.00-242.00 44.90 37.377 10.23 2.74
5 km 242.00-243.00 30.13 35.926 9.43 1.39
6 km 243.00-245.00 25.81 34.241 9.39 1.10
7 km 245.00-247.00 23.45 32.699 9.50 1.03
8 km 247.00-249.00 38.04 33.366 8.99 2.52
9 km 249.00-250.00 48.71 35.071 9.85 3.39
10' km 250.00-254.00 31.52 34.716 9.35 1.66
11 km 254.00-255.00 24.08 33.750 9.43 0.97
12 km 255.00-257.00 23.11 32.863 9.50 0.97
13 km 257.00-258.00 16.89 31.634 10.12 0.54
14 km 258.00-260.00 37.75 32.071 9.86 2.58
15 km2 60.00-261.00 21.18 31.345 9.91 0.97
16 km 261.00-262.00 23.23 30.837 9.79 1.22
17 km 262.00-263.00 37.08 31.205 9.59 2.61
18 km 263.00-264.00 23.82 30.795 9.47 1.26
19 km264.00-266.00 16.96 30.066 9.73 0.65
20 km266.00-267.00 28.04 29.965 9.49 1.80
21 km267.00-268.00 48.32 30.839 10.08 3.74
22 km 268.00-270.00 13.97 30.072 10.47 0.46
23 km270.00-271.00 41.49 30.569 10.50 3.04
24 km271.00-272.00 36.62 30.821 10.35 2.56
25 km 272.00-273.00 31.58 30.851 10.13 2.07
26 km 273.00-276.00 18.52 30.377 10.22 0.84
27 km2 76.00-277.00 35.20 30.556 10.06 2.46
28 km 277.00-279.00 34.99 30.714 9.91 2.43
29 km279.00-280.00 25.87 30.547 9.77 1.52
30 km 28.0.00-282.00 30.25 30.537 9.60 1.97
31 km282.00-284.00 32.06 30.586 9.44 2.16
32 km284.00-285.00 38.01 30.818 9.38 2.77
33 km 285.00-289.00 28.16 30.738 9.25 1.72
34 km289.00-290.00 24.52 30.555 9.17 1.34
35 km290.00-291.00 41.44 30.866 9.22 3.15
36 km291.00-293.00 37.17 31.041 9.14 2.67
37 km 293.00-295.00 41.36 31.320 9.17 3.09
38 km295.00-296.00 31.76 31.331 9.05 2.05
39 km296.00-298.00 31.14 31.327 8.93 1.98
40 km 298.00-300.00 20.86 31.065 8.97 0.86
41 km 300.00-303.00 39.23 31.264 8.95 2.89
42 km303.00-306.00 35.01 31.353 8:86 2.41
43 km 306.00-307.00 33.85 31.411 8.76 2.28
44 km 307.00-308.00 41.14 31.633 8.78 3.08
45 km 308.00-310.00 41.42 31.850 8.80 3.09
46 km 310.00-311.00 25.27 31.707 8.76 1.26
47 km 311.00-323.00 43.24 31.952 8.82 3.28
48 km 323.00-325.00 38.78 32.094 8.78 2.76
49 km 325.00-329.00 27.09 31.992 8.72 1.44
50 km 329.00-332.00 62.59 32.604 9.66 5.11
51 km 332.00-333.00 18.69 _, 32.331 9.76 0.60
52 km 333.00-339.00 28.22 32.252 9.68 1.58
53 km 339.00-340.00 54.79 32.677 10.07 4.20
54 km 340.00-342.00 30.83 32.643 9.98 1.82
55 km 342.00-343.00 46.72 32.899 10.07 3.37
56 km 343.00-348.00 23.40 32.730 10.05 1.07
57 km 348.00-349.00 35.56 32.779 9.97 2.28
58 km 349.00-350.00 57.05 33.198 10.38 4.30
59 km 350.00-353.00 35.71 33.240 10.30 2.24
60 km 353.00-354.00 53.42 ' 33.577 10.54 3.88
61 km 354.00-360.00 38.52 33.658 10.47 2.46
62 km 360.00-361.00 56.22 34.022 10.77 4.06
km 361.00-
63 363675 45.32 34.201 15.30 2.73

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APPENDIX - G

.
21 AtTft tiscr, cpicp Ta
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66 -61 f4
A antrwi ‘K, I 1
id
II 41917 101 to uil 1 416 248 igt

.05~44111 139 441-9124 2 9 2
-
tie -
Entry Point of Study Area
Road Section without any Protection Work

Road Section showing Unprotected Edge of Road
Layout of Crash Barrier

Location of a Narrow Bridge
Layout of Protection Works

Accidental Vehicle in the Valley
Layout of Protection Works

ib Orfila
•
• 7
•
4:7
Layout of Crash Barrier & Guard Stones
View of Road in Study Area

Encroachment due to Parking of Vehicles
Narrow Bridge with Sharp Approach

A Major Accident on Narrow Bridge
Finished Double Lane Work

Layout of Traffic Signs
Layout of Traffic Sign

Layout of Protection Work
Layout of Protection Work

Accident Prone Narrow Culvert
Accidental Vehicle in Valley

Accident Prone Sharp Bend
Accident Prone Sharp Bend

Site of an Accident
Accidental Vehicle in Valley of Above Site

Analysis of Accidents On National Highways in Hilly Region

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Analysis of Accidents On National Highways in Hilly Region

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ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT ON NATIONAL

HIGHWAYS IN HILLY REGION

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING

I, hereby declare that the work presented in this dissertation entitled

Date: June 28, 2007 (S.C.LOONJYA)

I feel privileged in extending my earnest obligation, deep sense of gratitude,

Date: 27th June, 2007 (S C Looniya)

The increasing number of road accident on National Highways, which constitute

CHAPTER 2 : LITERATURE REVIEW

CHAPTER 3 : METHODOLOGY ADOPTED

CHAPTER 4 : DATA COLLECTION

CHAPTER 5 : DATA ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULT

CHAPTER 6 : REMEDIAL MEASURES FOR HILLY SECTION OF NH-58

CHAPTER 7 : CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS

Table No. Description Page No.

Figure Description Page No.

1.2 Global Scenario of Accident

Fig 1.1 Deaths per 10000 vehicles per year

1.3 Accident Situation in India

Year All Two Cars, Buses Goods Others*

Growth of Motor Vehicles

Fig. 1.2 Growth of Registered Motor Vehicles in India 1951-2003

Source : Data received from States/UTs.

Persons killed1 Injuredin Thousands

Total No of accidents in Thousands Total No of Persons Killed in Thousands

Fig. 1.3 Road Accident Statistics of India 1970-2004

Percent (.7.1-ians4e in Accident$

Figure 1.4 Indian and Global Road Safety Trends

(b) BOX CUT

Fig. 1. Elements of a Roadway Fig. 1.6. Classification of Terrain

1.4.2 Accident in hill roads

Driving in hills, especially in adverse and severe weather condition is a difficult

1.5 Study Objectives

Accidents in hilly road is a complex function of many factors, including those

1.6 Study Area

1.7 Composition of Report

Road Environment Driver

Fig. 2.1 Classification of Accident. According to Causes

2.1 The Roads Characteristics

2.1.1 Road, lane width and shoulders type

Vogt & Bared

Slope Change Rate *

2.1.2 Horizontal curves

Original transition curve

Fig. 2.6 Relation between Speed and Horizontal Curvature

Coefficient of side friction

Where f = Coefficient of side friction

00 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

V85 = 17.4 - 3244.8 (1/R) + 114078 (1/R)2 + 0.85 Vf (2)

2.1.3 Vertical curve

(a) Uphill grade

2.1.6 Traffic Volume

cc 40 RATE OF SPEED LOSS ON VARIOUS PERCENTAGES

Fig: 2.8 Speeds on Various Upgrades

2.1.7 Width of bridge and cross drainage

2.2 Driver Characteristics

2.2.1 Age and Sex

SOO 400 7096

2.2.4 Night driving

Fig.2.11 Interaction between the Fig.2.12 Comparison of Deprived and

2.2.5 Alcohol and drugs

2.3 Climatic Conditions

2.5 Studies on Analysis of Road Accidents