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Six Sigma for Excel Probability Tree Navigating to Results

Parameter: Item: Reference: Responsible: Date:

Accuracy of response Pregnancy test PT Enter Name 1/1/2020

1. Start

2. Parameters and Outcome

Parameter Outcome
Process Good Bad
Test Pass Fail

3. Simple Probabilities Test

Process Pass Fail
Good 90.00% 97.00% 3.00%
Bad 10.00% 2.00% 98.00%

P(Good) conditional P(Pass) 99.771%

P(Good) and P(Pass) 87.300%
P(Pass) 97.000%
P(Good) 90.000%
P(Fail) 3.000%
P(Good) and P(Fail) 2.700%
P(Good) conditional P(Fail) 3.086%

4. Tree Sum Pass 87.500%

100.000% Sum Fail 12.500%

P(Bad) conditional P(Pass) 0.229%

P(Bad) and P(Pass) 0.200%
P(Pass) 2.000%
P(Bad) 10.000%
P(Fail) 98.000%
P(Bad) and P(Fail) 9.800%
P(Bad) conditional P(Fail) 78.400%

5. Probability Summary
Test Process
Good Bad Totals
Pass 87.300% 0.200% 87.500%
Fail 2.700% 9.800% 12.500%
Totals 90.000% 10.000% 100.000%

6. Probability Tables
Simple Probabilities Joint Probabilities Addition Rule
P(Pass) 87.500% P(Pass and Good) 87.300% P(Pass or Good) 90.200%
P(Fail) 12.500% P(Pass and Bad) 0.200% P(Pass or Bad) 97.300%
P(Good) 90.000% P(Fail and Good) 2.700% P(Fail or Good) 99.800%
P(Bad) 10.000% P(Fail and Bad) 9.800% P(Fail or Bad) 12.700%