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HOW TO DETERMINE CONSTRUCTION PROJECT RAIN DELAY TIMES

USING LOCAL RAINFALL DATABASES IN ASHEVILLE, NC

Dr. George Ford, P.E.1, Dr. John Patterson2 and Dr. Bradford Sims3

ABSTRACT

Rain delays can prove costly to construction contractors and significantly affect long-
term profitability if not carefully considered during the planning stages of a project.
This paper includes a short literature review of technology related to predicting
construction project rain delays and an analysis of rainfall event probabilities for the
Asheville, North Carolina region. An analysis methodology is provided in a step-by-
step discussion which illustrates how to determine statistical probabilities of
significant rainfall events to forecast construction project delays. Local rainfall data
for Asheville, NC is analyzed to determine rainfall frequency to provide an example
of the forecasting methodology for the reader.

INTRODUCTION

Construction project delays often pose serious financial and character threats to a
contractor, but contracts are often silent on the subject (Xi, Balaji & Molenaar, 2005).
There are seemingly an infinite number of ways a project may be delayed such as
labor disputes, materials delivery and weather (Holman & Parks, 2001). Some
construction delay issues may be avoided by sufficient planning. Poor contract
management is often cited as the primary factor responsible for project delays
(Frimpong, Oluwoye, and Crawford, 2003), but nobody can control the weather.
Historical weather data is readily available for most geographic areas within the
United States. A simplistic statistical approach to predicting weather related work
disruptions may prove helpful to construction project managers during the planning,

1
Western Carolina University, Department of Construction Management, Cullowhee, NC 28723:
(828) 227-2519; FAX (828) 227-7138; email: gford@wcu.edu
2
Western Carolina University, Department of Construction Management, Cullowhee, NC 28723:
(828) 227-2438; FAX (828) 227-7138; email: jpatterson@wcu.edu
3
Western Carolina University, Department of Construction Management, Cullowhee, NC 28723:
(828) 227-2175; FAX (828) 227-7138; email: bsims@wcu.edu

380

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Building a Sustainable Future
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estimating, and proposal stages of a project to supplement contract management

functions.
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The discussion which follows provides a straightforward approach for

construction project managers in the Asheville, North Carolina region to determine
potentially work-disruptive rainfall patterns. The methodology presented may also be
applied to other geographic regions in the United States, but other weather effects
besides rainfall, such as temperature, are not fully considered in this discussion in
order to maintain simplicity in the methodology. A short literature review of weather
related construction delays is also provided. Emphasis is placed upon predicting
delays in highway construction projects, but the principles present are intended for
general project applications.

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

There are several articles that discuss weather issues which trigger construction
delays and lost productivity (Xi, et al, 2005; Kenner, Johnson, Matt, Miller, &
Salmen, 1998; Guo, 2000; Lee, Ryu, Yu and Kim, 2005; and Lee, Woods, Jue &
Speed, 2007). The South Dakota Department of Transportation (SDDOT) found that
“significant time and effort are spent on settling disputes between what the contractor
and the Department consider to be a reasonable number of weather related non-
working days” (Kenner, et al, 1998, p iii). Kenner, et al (1998) developed weather
charts for highway construction contractors to use to estimate an expected number of
adverse weather delays for each calendar month of the year for six weather zones
within South Dakota. They examined different highway construction project tasks
and weather data including, rainfall and temperature, from a total of 103 climate
stations within the state with at least 30 years of continuous data. They considered a
single daily precipitation threshold of 0.30 inches per day, a daily maximum
temperature threshold of 32 degrees Fahrenheit, and a combination of the two
conditions as work stopping scenarios. The regional weather charts they generated
could be used by construction contractors to request time extensions for their
projects, one day for 0.30 inches of rainfall, two days for 0.75 inches of rainfall, and
one day for maximum daily temperatures of 32 degrees Fahrenheit and below.
Guo (2000, p 67) wrote, “in practice scheduling uncertainties are usually
estimated by experience and judgment”. He presented a model to estimate project
duration which considered the impact of rainfall. He recognized that rainfall varies
due to geographic location and season of the year and also identified partial workday
losses due to precipitation in his model. Lee, Ryu, et al (2005) focused on
methods to estimate declines in work productivity affecting project delays, like Guo
(2000) considering partial day delays. They defined productivity in terms “of work
produced per man hour, equipment hour, or crew hour” (p. 1148).
Lee, Woods, et al (2008) developed a regression equation to predict
construction non-working days. They analyzed precipitation, wind speed and
temperature over a two year period to generate their regression model. They used the
same threshold values for precipitation and temperature as Kenner, et al (1998) and
Xi, et al (2005).

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Holman and Parks (2001) provided a brief legal analysis of claims for
construction weather delays. They defined liquidated damages as “per diem rate of
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damages that a contractor is obligated to pay in the event its work is not substantially
complete by the required date under the contract” (p. 5). They also discussed
procedures which contractors should use to document delays to avoid paying liquid
damages due to weather delays.
Xi, et al (2005) wrote an extensive analysis of the effects of weather and
related construction delays in an effort to assist contractors in reducing disputes and
claims. They estimated that weather delays cost approximately $40 billion per year
in the United States. They discussed contract language, construction operation types,
precipitation, temperature, wind velocity, soil temperature and critical path
scheduling methodology in their study. They also surveyed 38 state departments of
transportation to obtain relevant information about contracts and related weather
provisions.

METHODOLOGY

Daily rainfall data for Asheville, North Carolina was obtained from the State Climate
Office of North Carolina for a 30-year period, from 1977 to 2006. This data was
tabulated by year and day of the year. February 29th on the leap years was deleted
from the data set to simplify data manipulation. The average annual rainfall for the
30-year period for Asheville, N.C. was found to be 37.25 inches, ranging from a low
annual rainfall amount of 23.05 inches to a high of 51.68 inches. There tended to be
more rainfall in the summer months with the lowest monthly rainfall generally
occurring in October each year.

Rainfall vs Year for Asheville, NC

y = 0.1686x + 34.637
60

50
R ain fall (in ch es)

40

30

20

10

0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Year 1977-2006

Figure 1: Annual Rainfall for Asheville, NC, 1977-2006.

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The number of days with rainfall greater than 0.30 inches was counted for each year
(30 years X 365 days of data points). Per previous highway construction studies,
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more than 0.30 inches was assumed to provide one day of estimated construction
delay. In a similar fashion, the number of days with rainfall greater than 0.75 inches
was counted for each year and taken to cause two days of construction delays, (one
additional day above the 0.30 inch count). The results of this count found that on
average, in Asheville, NC, there would be a construction delay 14% of the time or
about one in seven days. In 365 days, one would expect about 51 days of rain delays.
The range for the 30-year dataset of annual days of delay was found to be from 30 to
77 days per year. The trend line also shows a slight upward trend in the number of
non-workday occurrences per year from 46 to 53 from 1977 to 2006 possibly due to
the effects of global warming, see Figure 2 below.

Annual Rainfall Non-workdays for Asheville, NC

90

80

y = 0.2521x - 451.14
70

60
# of Occurrences

50

40

30

20

10

0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year

Figure 2: Annual Rainfall Non-workdays for Asheville, NC, 1977-2006

DISCUSSION

The primary finding of this study was that the weather is very unpredictable, but
statistical data may help a project manager to understand when remarkable weather
conditions have occurred. Contract documents must be inspected carefully early in
the job to ensure that clear remedies are provided for the project manager to address
loss of productivity or workday delays due to weather related causes.

The basic methodology presented here is:

1. Obtain daily rainfall data for the region where a construction project is
located. The data should cover a 30 year period.
2. Tabulate the data in an EXCEL spreadsheet to simplify analysis.

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3. Delete February 29th days in leap years to further simplify the data.
4. Determine the total amount of rainfall each year and graph 30 years of
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data to look for trends.

5. Determine the number of days in each year with daily rainfalls above 0.30
inches using EXCEL formula such as =COUNTIF(B7:AE7,">.30").
6. Determine the number of days in each year with daily rainfalls above 0.75
inches using EXCEL formula such as =COUNTIF(B7:AE7,">.75")..
7. Add the days from step 6 and 7 together to get a total number of days.
8. Graph the number of non-workdays for each of the 30 years of the period
considered. Look for trends.
9. Estimate the number of non-workdays for the project due to rainfall by
finding the average number of rain-delay days for each of the 30 years in
the dataset and multiplying this percentage by the days of duration of the
applicable project.
10. Estimate the number of non-workdays due to other related events
applicable to the region in which the project is located with the best
information available such as temperature.
11. Integrate the estimated productivity losses into the project proposal as
applicable.

The literature review provided a litany of material applicable to forecasting

weather related project delays during construction projects. The simple statistical
methodology presented in this discussion provides additional information for project
managers to use during the early stages of a project to minimize liability due to
unanticipated weather delays so that professional reputations and financial well-being
may be preserved. If precipitation induced delays are easily addressed during a
project, construction managers may be able to address other unforeseen issues
adequately.

CONCLUSIONS

Construction project managers may obtain a dataset of daily rainfall amounts for the
geographic location of their project during the proposal stage of the project, and
estimate potential delays as outlined in this paper, to determine if the project timeline
provided by the customer is realistic. This may prove infeasible for smaller jobs, but
once an analysis is done for a specific geographic region, then it may be re-used. In
Asheville, NC, a project manager may expect about one day of lost work for every
seven workdays due to rainfall alone.

REFERENCES

Frimpong, Y., Oluwoye, J., and Crawford, L. (2003). Causes of delay and cost
overruns in construction of groundwater projects in developing countries: Ghana

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as a case study. International Journal of Project Management, 21(2003), p 321-

326.
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Guo, S. (2000). Computer-aided project duration forecasting subjected to the impact

of rain. Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 15(2000), p67-74.
Holman, M., and Parks, G. (2001). Snow & rain & hail & sleet: Making the claim for
weather delays. Ohio Construction Law. August, 2001.
Kenner, S.,Johnson, L., Matt, A., Miller, R., and Salmen, A. (1998). Development of
working day weather chart for transportation construction in South Dakota.
Retrieved July 7, 2008 from http://ntl.bts.gov/lib/9000/9000/9083/SD97-
07final.pdf.
Lee, H., Ryu, H., Yu, J., and Kim, J. (2005). Method for calculating schedule delay
considering lost productivity. Journal of Construction Engineering and
Management, 131(11), p 1147-1154.
Lee, W, Woods, P., Jue, W., and Speed, M. (2008). Predicting non-working days due
to adverse weather conditions for highway construction projects in Brazos
County, Texas using 2nd order linear regression. Proceedings of the Associated
General Contractors Association, April, 2008.
Xi,Y., Balaji,R., and Molenaar, K. (2005). Quantify Construction Delays Due to
Weather, Federal Highway Administration, Central Federal Land Highway
Division,Research Report, Oct. 2003 to Mar. 2005. University of Colorado.
Retrieved on July 9, 2008 from http://forecast.colorado.edu/~apipatta/delay/.

Copyright ASCE 2009 2009 Construction Research Congress

Building a Sustainable Future