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Land is a convenient measure of space and land use provides a spatial framework for urban
development and activities
The location of activities and their need for interaction creates the demand for
transportation
the provision of transport facilities influences the location itself.
Land uses, by virtue of their occupancy, are supposed to generate interaction needs and
these needs are directed to specific targets by specific transportation facilities.
The purpose of land use transport models is to assess the policy impacts in terms of the
implications of the future growth patterns on both land use and travel related issues
Land Transpor
Potential
Demand
Supply Population An d
Trip
Equilibrium Distribu tion
Modal Split
Demand Location
Trip Assignment
2. Transport system
the transport system the traditional way of characterizing the transportation system in
urban simulation models is a four stage process
I. trip generation
II. trip distribution
III. modal split
IV. trip assignment
a) The first component is the probability of making a trip for a given trip
purpose of particular length
b) The second component is the measure of attractiveness of the destination The total PLUM
model is divided into four phases: initial allocation, revised allocations of incremental
employment, reallocations and increments, projections The outputs of PLUM consist of
total housing units, residential population, total number of employment residents, and
total employment.
1980s has seen a very interesting development in the area of land use transport modelling.
During the intermediate era, modelling of transport demand and supply has been enhanced
with a lot of innovative ideas.
The land use / transport modelling also embraced them for better representation of demand
and supply scenario in relation to location.
although the basic allocation mechanism emanated from Lowry model was largely used in
most models., very complex developments on location process was seen one of such model
is ITLUP
ITLUP model contains both location and transportation models and has been the
subject of a long sequence of development and application projects since 1971.
(2) where
a measure of cost of travel from zone i to zone j
a parameter of the system under consideration
the gravity model can be treated as a regression equation, whose parameters P and can be
estimated after taking the logarithms of both sides.
Tij = Oi origin (or production) constraint (3)
(6)
(7)
Alan Wilson [10] has shown that equation (5) can be obtained by an application of the
statistical concept of entropy (or uncertainty) without recourse to the Newtonian analogy
o For the reverse to happen ,energy is needed, unless the compressor is driven by
an external source, the refrigerator won’t be able to operate,Heat pump and
Refrigerator works on Clausius’s statement.
o Entropy is degree of randomness or disorder.
In natural systems ,
ΔSuniv > 0
(8)
(c) At the macrostate level the system is represented as a vector of residences [Oil and a vector
of places of employment [Di]. A macrostate can be obtained by aggregation from a given microstate:
as
before,
an
d
In addition to the production and attraction constraints (equations 3 and 4), a cost constant
is specified:
(9)
The necessity for this third constraint is evident if the two systems Sl and S2, which are
identical with respect to [Cij], [Oil and [Dj] are compared.
If tripmakers in Sl tend to travel greater distances than trip makers in S2, then Kl > K 2
and the trip distributions [Tij]l and [Tij]2 will differ.
The maximum entropy approach follows the direction of macrostate description to
mesostate
In the figures since microstate is intrinsic to the macrostate or mesostate.
The maximum number of mesostaes and macrostate is possible when there is maximum
number of microstates for one microstate there is one macrostate and for multiple
microstates there is multiple macrostates.
Macrostate I Macrostate 2
System macrostates.
mesostate 1 mesostate 2
5
System of mesostates
Microstate 1 microstate 2
System of microstate
In other words, the most probable trip distribution is the trip matrix [Tij] which can occur in
the greatest number of ways W(C Tij]). It can be shown by combinatorial theory [13] that
T!
(10)
where
In conclusion,
Wilson, through a series of works from the 1960s onwards, popularizes the application of.
Dividing the system into zones between which travel occurs, a matrix Tij can be constructed,
detailing all individual transport flows from zones i to j, describing the ‘state’ of the system.
Wilson argues that a good estimate of Tij may be made by applying three constraints: fixing
the total number of workers living in a given origin zone i, fixing the total number of jobs in a
given destination zone j, and fixing the total ‘generalised cost’, or impedance, associated with
travel to work .
By assuming that each microstate of Tij is equally probable, we, therefore, want to find the
Tij with the largest number of microstates W Tij giving rise to it.
This may be achieved by maximising W Tij
subject to the three imposed constraints, although Wilson chooses to equivalently maximize
log W, to allow for Stirling’s approximation to simplify the maths.
This function is then maximized subject to the given constraints using a Lagrangian multiplier
approach, which reveals an exponential expression for the most probable Tij matrix.
(11)
where
ß = a parameter of the system, whose magnitude reflects the magnitude of the total interaction cost K
[equation (9)]. If K is large, ß is small, and vice versa.
a parameter of the system, whose magnitude reflects the magnitude of total residential
location-dependent benefits in the system.
Second, given [Oi] but not [Dj], the destinations constraint [equation (4)] can be deleted.
Defining Wj as a measure of benefits deriving from employment in zone j, an origins-
constrained model is obtained
A
nd θ a parameter of the system, whose magnitude reflects the magnitude of total location-
dependent employment benefits in the system
The Lowry model and its immediate successors used aggregate production-constrained and
attraction-constrained versions of the gravity model.
ITLUP and other recently developed Lowry type models embody extended versions
of the entropy maximizing formulations expressed in equations 14, 15, 17 and 18.
The Lowry Model (Lowry, 1964) incorporated within its structure both generation and
allocation of activities .The activities which the model defines are population, service
employment and these activities correspond to residential, service and industrial land
uses. Some of the salient features of Lowry model are
The model ensures that populations located in any zones dose not violate a
maximum density or holding capacity constraint is placed on each category of
service employment.
(la) A destinations-constrained version of the gravity model is applied to the distribution of basic
employment [Dj], allocating the basic employees to their places of residence [Oil.
(1b) By treating the resident basic employees as heads of households, the model calculates the
distribution of residential population dependent upon basic industry. This calculation assumes a
simple proportional relationship between resident employees and resident population.
(2a) By me'ans of an origins-constrained version of the gravity model, the distribution of the
customer population [Oi] estimated in the previous step is allocated to a spatial distribution of
demand for non-basic services
(2b) The work-place distribution of service employees serving the customers allocated in (2a) is
estimated, assuming a proportional relationship between number of customers and number of service
employees.
(3a) The service employees forecast in (2b) above are allocated to residential zones via a
destinations-constrained gravity model, as in (la) above.
(3b) The resident service employees are converted to new resident population, as in (l b) above.
(4) Steps (2) and (3) are reiterated until the increment of service employment allocated in step (2b)
becomes negligible.
I. A minimum size constraint on service employment allocated to each zone. This constraint is
different for each service sector, and corresponds with the threshold size of service
establishments in central place theory.
II. An available-space constraint on retail development: retail employment is allocated only to
zones in which there is vacant land available for development.
III. A maximum-density constraint on residential population in each zone. This constraint can be
varied to correspond with different density ordinances in different zones.
NEED OF IT LUP
In 1970 s Urban highways were built to meet existing travel demand, without consideration
of the new residential development—hence additional traffic they would foster.
highway construction was the accepted method of reducing traffic congestion
the result was a vicious circle which exacerbated the process of suburban sprawl with little or
no improvement in intra-metropolitan travel amenities
Land use planners, had no reliable means of predicting the effects of zoning controls upon
travel patterns.
The Integrated Transportation and Land Use Package (ITLUP) is one of the modelling
systems that has been designed to provide the types of information which will be necessary to
remedy the above situation.
IT LUP developed at the University of Pennsylvania under the direction
of Dr S. H. Putman proven a sensitive instrument for investigating many
kinds of planning proposals.
Structure of ITLUP
Land use is modeled in a Lowry-type duo of gravity models
a Disaggregated Residential Allocation Model (DRAM), and an Employment Allocation Model
(EM PAL).
models were based originally on IPLUM , but they have since been substantially
modified in light of Wilson's entropy theory.
To simulate the interactions which connect land use processes with transportation
processes, the models are run in succession:
o the outputs from the land use models are input to the transportation models,
o the consequent transportation forecasts are then input to the land use models.
1) (1a) Given the base-year travel-cost matrix [Cij] and the base-year spatial distributions of
employment and residential population, EMPAL estimates the forecast-year distribution of
employment, disaggregated by industrial sector.
1. (l b) DRAM estimates the forecast-year distribution of residential
population corresponding with the distribution of employment
forecast in EMPAL. The forecast-year travel matrix c Tij] implicit in
this step is extracted for input to the network package.
2) ) The forecast-year travel matrix [Tij] is converted from person-trips to vehicle trips , and
loaded onto the forecast-year transportation network. This step models the effects of traffic
congestion upon traffic patterns, and produces forecasts of traffic volume and congested
impedance for every link in the network.
3) Travel-cost and traffic-volume appear as variables in the land-use models and in the network
models.
4) interface between the land-use package and the netowrk package, certain conversions are
necessary, due to changes in the definition of the variables.
i. These changes in definition are a consequence of the distinction between the
quasi network of zone centroids (in the land use models), and the actual
transportation network (in the network models).
ii. the link-impedences of the transportation network are converted to inter-
zonal travel costs [Cij], and the inter-zonal travel matrix [Tij] is converted to
network traffic volumes in the network models.
5) The time-interval for which EMP AL has been calibrated (typically 5 years) determines the
time period between base year and forecast year over which IT LUP is to be run.
6) EMPAL requires exogenous forecasts of total regional employment in the various industrial
sectors
7) DRAM requires exogenous forecasts of total regional population in the various household
income groups and an exogenous future-year transportation network (i.e. the existing network is
modified by any transportation policy proposals to be tested).
8) , the forecasting procedure o can be repeated over successive time periods. The land use
forecasts produced for the first forecast date (t + l) become base year inputs for the second
forecast period (t + 2), etc
a. Reiteration of ITLUP in this manner produces cumulative endogenous changes in all
location-specific variables, and in the matrix of inter-zonal travel costs.
b. Associated with DRAM and EMPAL there is an accounting system which updates
the various attractiveness factors (e.g. land utilization and building density) in
accordance with the forecast changes in residential and employment location
c. Upon completion of the network simulation stage, the congested network
impedences are converted to inter-zonal travel costs [ct.jJ for input to EM PAL
9) Allocation of households of different types then depends upon this attractiveness and
the access cost to employment to different types .In current version of ITLUP new
locaters , include a separate model LANCON to calculate land consumption using a
simultaneous multiple regression formulation. Trip generation and distribution are
also calculated in DRAM simultaneously with household location.
10) MSPLIT for modal split calculation. The trip matrices produced in DRAM are split
into trip matrices for each mode in MSPLIT using multinomial logit formulation for
the modal split calculation.
11) NETWK for trip assignment. The trips are then assigned to a capacity constrained
highway network in NETWK.
DRAM and EMPAL
that in contrast to the classical Lowry model framework, EMPAL and DRAM are
functionally separable.
They are calibrated separately and can be run separately.
CALIB, the gradient-search calibration procedure designed for DRAM, and subsequently
applied also to EMPAL, has been one of the most significant outcomes of the work on IT
LUP
a very convenient arrangement, and involves abandonment of the iterative computational
schemes used in earlier models
the idea that the "system being modelled ,at any given moment is not in, but tending towards,
an equilibrium, the resulting solution is more accurate forecast of the future year.
EMPAL uses a single equation structure to forecast all sectors of employment, with no
primary distinction between basic and non-basic industry
(20)
Where,
DRAM
The allocation equation in DRAM is an extended destinations-constrained entropy
maximizing model.
The disaggregated (trips) form is:
k
(21)
Where,
the number of work-trips from residences in zone i to places of employment in zone j, made
by members of income group k the number of members of income group k employed in
zone j
the percentage of total households in zone i which are of income group g. This is a measure
of socio-economic attractiveness, incomegroup discrimination, housing cost, etc.
— the area of available developable land in zone i. This is a measure of potential for
new residential development
— the percentage of developable land in zone i which has been developed. This is a
measure of existing infrastructure
— residential density in zone i. This is a measure of housing type
f a function of travel cost
c k , bk , d k = parameters to be estimated,For each income group, n values of must be
estimated, where n is the number of income groups. Typically n=4
c αij
DRAM and EMPAL embody a travel-cost function, f(Cij), which may be interpreted as a
The loading of travel demand onto the network is done by a method called the incremental
tree-by-tree trip assignment technique
The first increment is assigned to shortest paths through the initially empty network, one trip-
origin-node-based 'tree' at a time,same second and third.
Increasing levels of traffic congestion due to the assigned traffic are modeled as successive
changes in the link-impedance matrix which describes the network.
done by a method called the incremental tree-by-tree trip assignment technique
This involves the assignment of traffic to shortest (i.e. least-cost) paths through the network,
in several increments. Typically the loading is done in three increments, the successive
increments being 40, 40 and 20% of internodal travel demand.
Tests indicate that this method is the most efficient trip-assignment procedure available
Housing
Retail
Employment transport
Application :ITLUP
ITLUP had been calibrated for over 40 regions across the world and had at least 12 active
applications in the United States