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Tropical cyclone
genesis areas and
related storm tracks
Different Stages of TRS Based on wind Sp.
How are they measured?
Although developed in the USA, the Saffir-Simpson scale
is used to grade tropical storm wind strength in many parts
of the world.
Category Wind Speed Wind Speed Storm
km/hr Mph Surge m
Tropical storm 0-62 0
Tropical 63-117 0-0.9
depression
1 119-153 74-95 1.2-1.5
2 154-177 96-110 1.8-2.4
3 178-209 111-130 2.7-3.7
4 210-249 131-155 4.0-5.5
5 >250 >155 <5.5
HURRICANE CATEGORIES
Category 1 (Minimal) - Winds 64 to 82 knots, storm surge 4 to
5 ft above normal. No real damage to building Structures.
Low lying coastal areas flooded, minor damage to piers.
Examples Irene 1999 and Allison 1995
Category 2 (Moderate) - Winds 83 to 95 knots, storm surge 6 to 8
ft above normal. Minor damage to structures, poorly constructed
buildings major damage. Coastal and low lying escape routes
flooded over, considerable pier damage. Examples: Bonnie 1998,
Georges (FL & LA) 1998 and Gloria 1985
Category 3 (Extensive) - Winds 96 to 112 knots, storm surge 9 to 12
ft above normal. Major damage to structures, poorly
constructed building destroyed. Serious flooding along the
coast, extensive flooding may extend inland 8 miles. Examples:
Keith 2000, Fran 1996, Opal 1995, Alicia 1983 and Betsy 1965
Category 4 (Extreme) Winds 113 to 136 knots, stormsurge 13
to 18 ft above normal Extensive roofing and
windowdamage, complete destruction of mobile homes.
Areas above 10 ftflooded inland up to 6 m, major erosion
of beaches, massiveevacuation of coastal areas.
– Outflow aloft/exhaust
Common Areas for TRS
o
1. North Atlantic It extends upto lat 30 N in the Atlantic
Ocean. About 8 TRS occur in a year. Their subdivisions
are a.Gulf of Mexico- from June to October (coastal areas
of Mexico and USA).
b.West Indies- Its TRS are very violent. Florida coast is
worst affected during the period June to October.
c.Carribean - The northern part is affected by TRS
during June to October while the southern part affected
during May to November.
d. Island of Cape de verde - TRS affect the island during
August to September (close to Africa).
Identified by thickening
clusters of thunderstorms
on satellite
Winds 34 - 63 kts
DANGEROUSLY HIGH
SEAS navigation severely impaired
Tropical
cyclone
structure
Tracks of TRS
The TRS travels at the speed of 10-30 km/hr.
In a day, it can cover a distance of about 300
KM. It moves from east to west, steered by
high level easterly wind. Sometimes the
movement is erratic, with loops and
wobbling. The TRS gets pulled polewards
and therefore general motion is northwest in
the northern hemisphere. There is a tendency
to move in areas of warm water. They weaken
as they enter in cold water or strike a coast.
Tracks of TRS
Track of TRS in Bay of Bengal/Arabian Sea
• In the Bay of Bengal, 2 to 3 TRS are common
during Oct- Nov. Rarely, 1 to 2 TRS are seen in
April and May. The track of most of the TRS is
north westerly and strike the eastern coast of
India. Sometimes, off Orissa coast, TRS recurve
and cross near Burma (Myanmar) coast.
• For Arabian Sea, the formation of TRS are rare.
However, the storms that form over Bay of Bengal
move across Peninsular India and emerge out in
Arabian Sea. The TRS get rejuvenation over the
Arabian Sea, move in a Northerly course and strike
the Saurashtra-kutch coasts. The Frequency of
storms in Arabian Sea is very much less compared
to Bay of Bengal
Evidence for Determination of TRS
• Geographic conditions of storms experienced Lat 5 –
35 Deg.
• Location and Season NH - Jun-Nov & SH – Dec – May
• A heavy swell develops, usually from direction of
storm and may be experienced upto 1000 nm from the
storms centre.
• An unsteady barometer or a cessation in the diurnal range.
• Increased wind velocity or a change in the trade wind,
becoming violent.
• Open ocean, high sea temperature over 27 deg.
• A growth of cumulus and/or cumulonimbus will
develop with bands of showers
• Thunderstorms may occur within 100 nm radius of
storm.
• Oppressive atmosphere, with squally and heavy
rainfall in the vicinity of the storm.
• Changing appearance of the sky cirriform cloud.
Recurvature of TRS
When the TRS reach higher latitudes, they change
the directions. They move north and then north east
in northern hemisphere. In southern hemisphere,
they move south and then south east. This process
is called ‘recurvature’. Before the recurvature, they
remain stationary for a day or more. After
recurvature, they move very fast. The recurvature is
decided by upper level winds, which is called
steering level. When two cyclones exist near each
other on the ocean, they interact and move
anticlockwise with respect to each other. In India the
TRS after recurvature get broken up over Himalayas
and wakens. Elsewhere over the world, as in Atlantic
ocean after recurvature, the TRS acquires the
properties of an Extra tropical depression
Cyclone Map of India
Definitions of TRS
• VORTEX: The central calm of the storm.
• Right Hand Semicircle(RHSC): That half of the storm
centre that lies to the right of the observer who faces along
the path of the storm.
• Left Hand Semicircle(LHSC): That half of the storm centre
that lies to the left of the observer who faces along the path
of the storm.
• DANGEROUS SEMI-CIRCLE: The half of the storm, which
lies to the right of the path in the Northern Hemisphere and
to the left of the path in the Southern Hemisphere.
• DANGEROUS QUADRANT: The advance quadrant of the
RHSC in NH & LHSC in SH. When the existence of a TRS om
the vicinity has been established, evasive action has to be
taken to keep the vessel out of this quadrant.
• NAVIGABLE SEMI-CIRCLE: The half of the storm, which
lies to the left of the path in the Northern Hemisphere and to
the right of the path in the Southern Hemisphere.
• TROUGH LINE: A line through the centre of the storm at
right angles to the path. The dividing line between falling
and rising pressure
• PATH: The direction in which the storm is moving.
• TRACK: The area, which the storm centre has
traversed.
• STORM FIELD: The horizontal area covered by
the cyclone conditions of the storm.
• SOURCE REGION: The region where the storm
first forms.
• VERTEX or Cod: The furthest westerly point
reached by the storm centre.
• EYE OF THE STORM: The storm centre.
• BAR OF THE STORM: The advancing edge of
the storm field.
• ANGLE OF INDRAUGHT: The angle, which the
wind makes with the isobars
Weather in TRS
Pressure : In the eye region the lowest pressure occurs.
Here, 15 to 20 HPA fall of pressure is common. In extreme
case, the central pressure was as low as 920 HPA. In the
outer storm area, the fall of pressure ahead of the trough,
and the rise of pressure behind it, is slow. The semi-
diurnal variation of pressure may still be visible on the
trace of a barograph. In the eye-wall, the fall of pressure
ahead of the trough, and the rise of pressure behind it, is
very sharp. The trace of the barograph is very steep,
nearly vertical. Semi-diurnal variation is not visible on it.
The pressure gradient in this region can be as high as 11
mb in 15 miles. The pressure keeps increasing rapidly
behind a TRS across eye wall and outer storm area.
Wind : Wind speed will be very high in eye wall region of the
order of greater than 100 kmph normally. If the wind veers
continuously, the ship is in the right hand semi circle and if
the wind backs continuously, the ship is in the left hand
Wind
• Angle of indraft: The angle of indraft, in the outer
fringes of the storm, is about 45 Deg and gradually
decreases until it is 0 Deg in eye wall.
• Wind Force: The wind force will increase as the
atmospheric pressure falls and after the trough, or eye as the
case may be, has passed, wind force will gradually decrease
as the atmospheric pressure increases.
• Wind direction & Force in the Eye: As soon as a vessel
passes from the eye-wall into the eye, the wind dies down
into light airs but the swell is mountainous and confused. It
must not be presumed that a vessel in the eye of a TRS is in
a comfortable and safe position. On the contrary, she is in a
most dangerous situation. After a short while, as the vessel
passes into the eye-wall behind the trough, the sudden
hurricane force wind from the opposite direction as before,
strikes the vessel and may cause it to heel over by as much
as 80 deg. Or more and would hold it like that, leaving
practically no margin for rolling further.
•
Clouds & Temperature
• Clouds : All types of clouds can be seen from eye wall
circle onwards. Nimbostratus clouds will give very heavy
continuous rain. In the outer fringers of the storm, cirrus in
the form of strands or filaments generally so aligned, that
may be said to point towards the storm centre. Then
cirrostratus followed by altostratus. Around the eye-wall,
thick nimbostratus(giving continuous rain) and small
patches of cumulus, may be seen. At the eye wall, towering
anvil shaped cumulonimbus gives torrential rain. Directly
above the eye, a small circular patch of blue sky may be
seen, indicating an absence of cloud therein and
consequent cessation of precipitation.
• Atmospheric Temperature. Since a TRS exists in one
air-mass only, no drastic changes of atmospheric
temp. are experienced on its passage. However,
atmospheric temp. would decrease during rain. In the
eye, a slight increase may be registered due to
adiabatic heating of the subsiding air.
Visibility & Storm Surge
Visibility : Visibility will be good except during
rain which occurs in the eye wall and outer storm
circles. Around the eye -wall, under the
nimbostratus clouds, it becomes poor due to
rain. In the eye-wall, it is poor due to driving rain
and spray. In the eye, it is poor due to mist or fog.
Storm Surge : When pressure becomes low, water
will rise which is known as inverted barometeric
effect. The strong winds also increase the wave.
The waves reach as high as 20 metres or so. This
is called storm surge or tidal wave or storm wave.
• The storm surge will get amplified when the storm
crosses the land in a bay with shallow water or in a
river estuary especially during spring tide.
• In a TRS the maximum damage is due to storm
surge. About 90% of the death toll is due to storm
surge which affects about 25 km inland.
Services provided for Storm
Warnings
• Storm warnings are transmitted over
various means of transmission.
• They include:
• Navtex – Continuous however available only in
coastal areas – not for long ocean passages
• VHF – port information
• Weather FAX – all over the world
• Inmarsat C – Same broadcast as Navtex
but for coverage area of Inmarsat
• High Frequency (HF) broadcasts – Ocean
passages
Strom Warnings/Cyclone Forecast
Weather reports based on satellite pictures and
observations from other vessels may contain
storm warnings. A satellite picture cannot indicate
the atmospheric pressure at the storm centre. A
vessel which notices the warning signs of a TRS,
is the first and only one to do so and must warn
others about it. She should first send out a safety
message containing the storm warning and thence
increase the frequency of its weather reports. In a
Cyclone forecast 4 important aspects are:
1. Position of the cyclone
2. Its strength or intensity, whether it is a
depression or cyclone.
3. Whether the system is intensifying or weakening.
4. Future path or course of the system
Major basins and warning
centers.
Basins Warning Centre(RSMC/TCWC
North Atlantic National Hurricane Center (US)
North-East Pacific National Hurricane Center (US)
North-Central Pacific Central Pacific Hurricane
Center (US)
North-West Pacific Japan Meteorological Agency
North Indian Ocean India Meteorological
Dept(India)
South-West Indian Ocean India Meteorological
Dept(India)
Four Aspects(hints) of Deciding Cyclone Forecast
i)Weather charts which consists of
observations on the surface as well as
upper atmospheric data observed at
fixed time like 00,03,06,09,12,18,21, UTC.
ii) Cloud observations from satellite
imageries and also from Radar observations.
iii)Ship and aircraft observations
iv)Weather buoys.
Cyclone Movement Prediction
Cyclones move in a path where there is maximum.
1. Pressure fall, 2.Pressure departure from
normal,3. Clouds & rainfall
4. Path depends on the wind directions at about 10km
in the upper atmosphere which is called steering level.
5. When the isobaric analysis is carried out the cyclone
field has elliptical shaped isobars. The cyclone has the
tendency to move along the major axis of the ellipse.
6. Future path depends on the past track also,
which is called aspersistent climatology.
7. A Cyclone track atlas is maintained by each cyclone
prone country which covers hundreds of tracks of
cyclones in the past numbers of years. The present
cyclone is compared with the past tracks depending
upon its positions and its future path is decided.
• The cyclone prediction is not based on one factor
or other but it is based on the combination of the
factors contributing to its path and movement
Warning Signs of an approaching TRS
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Action when approach of a
TRS is confirmed