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Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic: From integer derivatives to fractional

derivatives

Preprint · July 2020

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Khondoker Nazmoon Nabi Abboubakar Hamadjam

Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology University of Ngaoundere
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 Forecasting of COVID-19 pandemic: From integer derivatives to
fractional derivatives
Khondoker Nazmoon Nabia , Hamadjam Abboubakarb , Pushpendra Kumarc
a
Department of Mathematics, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Dhaka-1000,
Bangladesh.
b
Department of Computer Engineering, University Institute of Technology of Ngaoundéré, University of
Ngaoundéré, P.O. Box 455, Ngaoundéré, Cameroon
c
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, School of Basic and Applied Sciences, Central University of
Punjab, Bathinda, Punjab-151001, India

Abstract
In this work, a new compartmental mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic has been
formulated incorporating some significant realities such as imperfect confinement measures,
ineffective isolation in hospitals, disrespectful behavior of the people towards lock-down
policies in Subsaharan African countries (Cameroon, Nigeria, and South Africa). In the
beginning, an integer derivative model has been proposed and then the basic reproductive
number R0 of the model has been calculated. It has been found in our analysis that the value
of this epidemic threshold is ∼ 4.8 (95% CI : 3.6 − 5.8) as of July 9, 2020. Using real data
compiled by the Cameroonian government, model calibration has been performed through
an optimization algorithm based on renowned trust-region-reflective (TRR) algorithm. The
probable peak date is estimated to be on August 1, 2020 with approximately 1073 (95% CI :
714−1654) daily confirmed cases. The tally of cumulative infected cases could reach ∼ 20, 100
(95% CI : 17, 343 − 24, 584) cases by the end of July 2020. Global sensitivity analysis has
been applied to quantify the most dominating model mechanisms that significantly affect
the progression dynamics of COVID-19. Importantly, Caputo derivative concept has been
performed to formulate a fractional model. By showing the existence and uniqueness of
solutions, a numerical scheme has been constructed using the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton
method. Numerical simulations enlighten the fact that when the fractional order α is close
to unity, the solutions converge to the integer model solutions, and the decrease of the
fractional-order parameter (0 < α < 1) leads to a decrease of infection in the infected
variables.
Keywords: Mathematical model, COVID-19, TRR algorithm, Caputo fractional
derivative, Adams-Bashforth-Moulton scheme
2000 MSC: 34D20, 26A33, 47H10, 92D30

Email addresses: nabinil@yahoo.com (Khondoker Nazmoon Nabi), h.abboubakar@gmail.com

(Hamadjam Abboubakar), kumarsaraswatpk@gmail.com (Pushpendra Kumar)

Preprint submitted to Elsevier July 16, 2020

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