DEBT BULLETIN- GOVT.

OF THE PUNJAB
As at Dec`2016.

DEBT STOCK
All amounts in Million

Domestic Debt vs External Debt

Outstanding
Outstanding (PKR) Outstanding (PKR) % of total
Type of Loan (US$) % Growth Variable Fixed
a s a t J un`16 a s a t Dec`16 as at Dec`16
a s a t Dec`16

Domestic Loans 16,098 14,635 140 -9.09% 2.79% 0% 100%

External Loans 510,277 510,672 4,891 0.08% 97.21% 23% 77%

Total 526,375 525,307 5,032 -0.20% 100% 23% 77%

All amounts in Million

Currency wise Composition

Outstanding
Currency Outstanding (PKR) % of total Variable Fixed
(Original Currency)

USD 4,068 424,695 81% 18% 82%

JPY 71,701 64,001 12% 67% 33%

Euro 30 3,353 1% 0% 100%

RMB 1,200 18,433 4% 0% 100%

ID 1 191 0% 0% 100%

PKR 14,635 14,635 3% 0% 100%

Total 525,307 100% 23% 77%

All amounts in Million

Creditor wise Composition

Creditor Outstanding (PKR) % of total
ADB 192,926 37%
IBRD 43,928 8%
IDA 195,288 37%
JICA 21,038 4%
France 3,353 1%
IFAD 4,865 1% Notes:
IDB 191 0% Borrowing from Federal Government/domestic is in PKR and all other Creditors lend in FX.
China 49,083 9% PKR figures have been computed by using the FX rate of 2nd January 2017.
Federal Govt. 14,635 3%
Total 525,307 100%
 DEBT SERVICING
Realized Debt Servicing for previous six Projected Debt Servicing for the
months following 12 months
(July`16 to Dec`16) (July`17 to Jun`17)
Creditor
Principal Principal Interest Total Debt
Interest Payment Total Debt Service
Repayment Repayment Payment Service
(million PKR) (million PKR)
(million PKR) (million PKR) (million PKR) (million PKR)
ADB 7,594 1,069 8,663 15,536 2,175 17,711
IBRD 1,852 292 2,144 3,715 607 4,322
IDA 1,626 1,168 2,794 3,600 2,398 5,999
JICA 378 147 525 756 297 1,053
France 102 18 119 203 35 238
IFAD 46 18 64 91 37 129
IDB 13 3 16 27 5 32
China - 667 667 - 1,158 1,158
Federal Govt. 1,463 1,051 2,514 2,926 1,844 4,770
Total 13,073 4,433 17,506 26,855 8,556 35,411

Assumptions:
LIBOR rate of 2nd Jan`17 is considered as base rate for LIBOR based loans.
Actual disbursements during July`16 to Dec`16 are added in debt stock as at Jun`16.

RISK INDICATORS

Risk Indicators FY 2017

Outstanding debt as % of GSDP 3.3%
Interest payment as % of GSDP 0.05%
Actual Outstanding Debt to Avg. Revenue of Last 3 Financial Years 57.98%
Debt Service (Prin+Int) as % of Avg. Revenue of Last 3 Financial Years 3.91%
Interest payment as % of Avg. Revenue of Last 3 Financial Years 0.94%
Share of External/FX debt 97.21%
Refinancing Risk Debt maturing in 1yr (% of total) 5.5%
Debt maturing in 1yr (% of GSDP) 0.19%

Avg. Time to Maturity External Portfolio (years) 10.3

Average Time to Maturity (ATM) focuses on timing of repayment. ATM shows average time
Avg. Time to Maturity Domestic Portfolio (years) 3.6 to repayment of entire debt stock. Larger the ATM, longer the time available with the
borrower to settle its outstanding debt obligations.
ATM Total Portfolio (years) 10.1

Interest Rate Risk Fixed rate debt (% of total)
Avg. Time to Refixing Portfolio (years)
Debt Refixing in 1yr (% of total)
77% Interest Rate Risk refers to the exposure of debt portfolio to changes in interest rate. A
number of measures can be used to assess exposure of debt portfolio to interest rate risk
e.g. share of Fixed Rate Debt, Average Time to Re-fixing and share of debt stock exposed
8.8 to interest rate re-fixing in one year. Average Time to Re-fixing (ATR) indicates the average
time after which the interest rate on the entire debt portfolio is reset. High ATR indicates
low risk as it implies that a relatively low share of the debt will require interest rates reset in
25.7% a short period of time

Economic Data used in indicators above:

Amounts in PKR (bln)
Description FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 Source of Statistics

GDP Pakistan 22,386 25,169 27,493 29,598

Punjab`s GSDP 11,865 13,340 14,571 15,687 53% of the Pakistan`s GDP

Total Revenue w/o loan Pakistan Fiscal Operations (From

690 766 874 1,078
receipts Federal Finance website)
REDEMPTION PROFILE (Principay Repayments Only)

R E D E M P T IO N P R O FIL E ( P K R B IL L IO N )
External Debt Domestic Debt

30 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.0

3.2 1.5 0.9
28 0.3 0.2
2.9 28 28 28 28 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
27 27
26 25
24 24 24 24 24 24
PKR in Billion

20 21
19
18
17
14
10 11

7 7
5
4 3
3 2
0
0 2046
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 0 2047
0 2048
0 2049
0 2050
0

Note:

1- Redemption profile is based on outstanding debt of Govt. of the Punjab as at Dec`16.

2- The redemption profile refers to the amount of annual debt repayment over a given period of time. It helps identify periods in which large principal
repayments will be due. The information helps decide the amortization scheme of new loans to smoothen Government’s redemption profile.

DEBT SERVICING (PKR BILLION)

D E B T S E R VICIN G ( P K R B IL L IO N )

Principal Interest Debt Servicing

45

40 40
Principal, Interest PKR Billion

Debt Servicing PKR Billion

8 35
9 7 7 6 6 5
30 5 30
31 30 30 4
29 29 29 4 3
28 3 3 2 2
27 25
26 25 2
24 25 24 24 24 1
20 1 20
21 1
19 1
18 15
17 0
14
10 11 0 10
0
0 0
7 0 0 0 5
7
5 4
3 2 3
0 0
0 2046
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 0 2047
0 2048
0 2049
0 2050
0

Note: Projection of debt servicing (Principal repayment + Interest payment) is based on outstanding total debt as at Dec`16.