Chapter 10

Climate Change and Food Security

in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh

Md. Golam Rabbani, A. Atiq Rahman, Ishtiaque Jahan Shoef,

and Zoheb Mahmud Khan

Abstract Climate Change induced hazards, including cyclonic events, variations

in temperature and rainfall, drought and salinity intrusion in water resources and
soil are adversely affecting the agricultural production and food security in
Bangladesh. Much more alarmingly, it is expected that Sea Level Rise will further
deteriorate the agriculture sector in future. The fall of rice production in the coastal
zones already indicates a disturbing situation under the already changing climatic
elements. A number of studies have been under taken to explore the impacts, the
adaptation measures being taken and that can be taken, vulnerability of the people
living in these areas, and the loss and damages imposed upon the agricultural sector
in the coastal zones. Both quantitative and qualitative tools were applied to measure
agricultural productivity and vulnerability in the study locations. This paper is
mainly based on the review of such recent studies on climate change and agriculture
related issues in the coastal areas. It shows that cyclonic events (e.g. Cyclone Sidr
2007 and Cyclone Aila 2009) and the associated salinity intrusion have drastically
affected the agricultural production (mainly rice and vegetables) in most of the
coastal districts. According to a recent study, 86 % households believe that the local
rice production (aman) has decreased because of salinity intrusion in soil in the
study villages.

Keywords Cyclone Sidr • Cyclone Aila • Agriculture • Food security • Coastal zone

Md.G. Rabbani (*)

Environment and Climate Change Division, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies
(BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh
e-mail: golam.rabbani@bcas.net
A.A. Rahman • Z.M. Khan
Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Dhaka, Bangladesh
e-mail: atiq.rahman@bcas.net; zoheb.mahmud@bcas.net
I.J. Shoef
Data Management Division, Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS),
Dhaka, Bangladesh
e-mail: ishtiaque.shoef@yahoo.com

© Springer Japan 2015 173

U. Habiba et al. (eds.), Food Security and Risk Reduction in Bangladesh,
Disaster Risk Reduction, DOI 10.1007/978-4-431-55411-0_10
174 Md.G. Rabbani et al.

10.1 Introduction

Climate Change, and the variability issues associated with it, adversely affects the
water resources of Bangladesh, as it does in most countries, causing a dramatical
reduction of agricultural crops. This adversity is occurring almost all over the
country, including the coastal regions. The rural communities, especially the poor
farmers, may be the worst victims of such climatic phenomena. The impacts of
climate change on the food security of developing countries like Bangladesh may be
comparatively higher because of the dire dependency on agriculture for livelihood
earning, and low resilience to climate induced and other kinds of disasters, mainly
due to educational, economical and technological aspects.
Bangladesh has developed various cultivars in an attempt to become resistant to
a number of climate-induced hazards, including floods (submergence), drought and
salinity intrusion. However, all these new cultivars have only been able to adapt to a
certain level. For example, BINA 8 is the rice cultivar that can resist salinity levels
of 8–12 dS/m. This has been a blessing in disguise for the farmers of Bangladesh,
since many farmers had to suffer immensely right after Cyclone Sidr and Cyclone
Aila, before 2010, because of the lack of cultivars that could withstand moderate to
high levels of salinity (>8 dS/m).
This paper reviews a number of studies, conducted to explore impacts, adapta-
tion and vulnerability in the agriculture, food security and other related issues in
the coastal zones. Sets of quantitative and qualitative tools were applied to measure
agricultural productivity and vulnerability in the locations that these studies were
conducted in. Secondary data and literature were also reviewed to complement
the findings of the field level studies. In these studies, the selected villages were the
most vulnerable and affected sub-districts in the coastal zones. The survey tool was
developed in consultation with relevant experts to make it consistent with the sub-
ject and local context. The qualitative tools including FGDs and in-depth interviews
helped to get details on the issues and verify the responses from the survey. However,
this paper reviews and focuses only on the agricultural and food security parts of
the studies.

10.2 Climate Change, the Coast and Agriculture

The coastal zone is under serious threat from climate change. It is evident that varia-
tions in temperature, erratic rainfall behavior (late onset, excessive rainfall over a
short period, lack of rainfall in particular times of the season, and so on), cyclonic
events, storm surge induced salinity intrusion and potential sea level rise (SLR) will
all affect the coastal zones in hostile ways. According to the National Adaptation
Programme of Action (MOEF 2005), Bangladesh could face a sea-level rise of
32 cm by the year 2050. The sea level at Hiron Point, near the Sundarbans, has been
rising at 5.3 mm a year over the period of 1977–2002 (CEGIS 2006). Other stations
10 Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh 175

along the Bangladesh coastline also show an increasing trend of sea levels (SMRC
2003). In the near future, low-lying coastal lands may well gradually inundate,
affecting all agricultural activities, wetlands ecosystems and other infrastructure,
unless they are solidly protected. Saline water intrusion stands as one of the major
physical impacts of sea-level rise on the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Salt water
is already intruding into fresh water sources and reservoirs in these areas, and
increasing the soil and water salinity levels in many districts in the southern part of
the country (Islam 2004). It has been found that the children living in 11 coastal
districts of Bangladesh have severe malnutrition, and their percentage is much
higher than that of the national average.
A recent World Bank report shows that Bangladesh will most likely face the
largest impacts due to SLR (World Bank 2007). Another report shows that 40 % of
the Sundarbans will be submerged if the sea level rises by 25 cm, and the whole of
the Sundarbans will disappear in the event of an SLR above 60 cm (Hare 2003).
Figure 10.1 shows that area likely to be affected by 1 m sea level rise in Bangladesh.
In fact, the SLR is likely to inundate the coastal wetlands, lowlands, and accentuate
coastal erosion. Furthermore, it may increase the frequency and severity of floods,
create drainage and irrigation problems and finally dislocate millions of people
from their homes and occupations (Rahman et al. 2007). An estimation, based on a
coarse digital terrain model and global population distribution data, shows that
more than 1 million people will be directly affected by SLR by 2050 in each of
the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna deltas in Bangladesh (Ericson et al. 2006;
Cruz et al. 2007).
To add to this rather frightening scenario envisioned in these reports, salinity has
already become one of the major problems for the coastal zones of Bangladesh. The
assumptions that experts put to this are pointed at low flows of fresh water from the
Ganges and the ingress of salt water from Bay of Bengal. As mentioned before, this
is already affecting the production levels of rice and vegetables in these areas drasti-
cally, and the farmers are facing rather acute risks to their own food securities.
So, it can be said, with some level of certainty, that the compound effects of SLR
and salinity, in the not too distant future, may disrupt agriculture (e.g. reduction of
rice), mangroves including the Sunderbans and coastal wetland ecosystems, including
ponds that support supplementary small scale irrigation for farmers. The recent
reports also state that the coastal communities may suffer even more, with water
borne diseases and other physical problems (e.g. menstruation problems of the
women in these area, from drinking saline water) due to SLR and salinity intrusion
(Rabbani et al. 2012).
Generally, main crop agriculture, at the national level, includes Rice crops (Boro,
Aman and Aus), Jute, Cotton, Sugarcane, Pulses, and different types of Vegetables.
In the coastal zones, however, the main crops include rice (Boro and Aman),
Sugarcane, Pulses and Vegetables. Some other crops are being cultivated on a
smaller scale. At the national level, the agricultural sector contributes 43.6 % of the
total labour force. Although the contribution of the agricultural sector of the coast
to the GDP of the country is not known, the crop production, especially rice produc-
tion in the coastal regions show a decreasing trend over the last several years.
176 Md.G. Rabbani et al.

Fig. 10.1 Area likely to be affected by 1 m sea level rise in Bangladesh

10 Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh 177

40

Rice Production (Million Ton)

35
30
25
20 National Production
(Million T)
15
10 Coastal Production
(Million T)
5
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year

Fig. 10.2 Total production of rice at national level and coastal zone between 2007 and 2011

25
Rate of change (%)

20
15
10
5 National Production
0 Coastal Production
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
(Base
Year)
Year

Fig. 10.3 Rate of changes in rice production at national level and coastal zone in different years
(2008–2011)

According to agricultural statistics, Fig. 10.2 shows that the rice production at
the national level had increased from 27 Million tons in 2007 to over 33 Million tons
in 2011, while it increased only 7 Million tons to 8 Million tons in the coastal zone
in the respective years (BBS 2008, 2010, 2012; Huq and Rabbani 2011).
The rates of changes in rice production in different years at national level and in
coastal the zone show variations during 2007–2011. This indicates that the rate of
change in rice production at national level from 2007 (base year) to 2008 was about
6 % while it was less than 1 % in the coastal zones (Fig. 10.3). It also indicates that
the rate of change in rice production at the national level remained higher than that
of the coastal zones in each of the years from 2008 to 2011.
According to the farmers of some of the coastal districts e.g. Satkhira, the yield
of traditional cultivars has decreased and the Aus rice variety is gradually disappearing
from the mentioned district. This, quite obviously, is happening because of salinity
intrusion in both water and soil resources. The salinity intrusion caused by both rapid
onset events (e.g. cyclones and storm surges) and slow onset events (e.g. SLR) are
affecting agricultural land, resulting in reduction of crop yields (Rabbani et al. 2010).
178 Md.G. Rabbani et al.

1200000

Area of crop damage (ha)

1000000

800000

600000

400000 Area of crop

Damage (ha)
200000

0
1985 1991 1994 1997 1997 2007
Year

Fig. 10.4 Area of crop damages due to major cyclonic events between 1985 and 2007 in the coast

The following Fig. 10.4, indicates the area of damage to crops due to different major
cyclones between 1985 and 2007. In 2007, the cyclone Sidr damaged crops over an
area of about 0.1 Million ha, 60 % higher than the total crop damaged area in 1991
(BBS 2012). It shows that the total damage of crops in terms of area due to Cyclone
Sidr in 2007 was much higher than that of the previous years.

10.3 Climate Change and Food Security Issues:

Observations/Evidences from Different Coastal
Districts of Bangladesh

10.3.1 Case Study-1

A study was conducted on the households of four villages in the Shyamnagar

Upazilla, under the Satkhira district in 2012. The total number of respondents for
the study was 360. This study found that about 27 % of households suffered from a
deficiency of food in the year before 2011 (Rabbani et al. 2013). In addition to this,
sea level rise cause inundation of more area which is already reported by scientist.
Therefore, damage of agricultural crops will be more acute in future (Anik and
kabir 2012).
Figure 10.5 shows that the population in the study areas suffers from food short-
ages more or less all around the year. It also clearly indicates that the food shortage
remains high in the months of August and September of the year, as related by 68 %
of the HHs. It is at the lowest in December (3 %). The farmers usually cultivate the
main rice crop (Aman) during monsoon to early winter (June–December).
The farmers also cultivate some other crops including rice and vegetables during
December–May. Incidentally, harvesting of Aman rice and vegetables in late post
monsoon and early winter (November/December) helps them to avoid food scarcity,
and they can continue living on the food stock that comes from this up till early
monsoon (June/July). However, other sources of income remain low during the
months of August–September, because this period actually relates to the profound
10 Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh 179

80
70

Respondents ( %)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Month

Fig. 10.5 Percentage of HHs facing food deficit during different months of the year

rainy season in the coastal zone. Among the study villages, Tengrakhali village was
found to be the worst victim of food shortages, as mentioned by 72 % of the study
HHs. Moreover, more than 80 % of the HHs mentioned that severe food crises have
affected them at least ten times in last 10 years. Many of the respondents mentioned
the low production of the rice due to the increased salinity in the soil, late rainfall,
seasonal drought and damage of crops and vegetables because of excessive rainfall
in short bursts. It was reported that the food shortage is becoming an increasingly
critical issue for the study areas.

10.3.2 Case Study-2

Cyclones have a devastating effect on the rice production in the coastal areas of
Bangladesh also. For example, in 2007, due to cyclone SIDR the cultivated area of
rice and consequent rice production declined at a great scale (Anik and Kabir 2012).
Another study was conducted in 16 villages of five Upazillas in five vulnerable
coastal districts in 2012. This study targeted 750 HHs from the respective villages
of five coastal districts in the south, which includes Satkhira (Shyamnagar Upazilla),
Bagerhat (Mongla), Patuakhali (Kalapara), Khulna (Koyra) and Cox’s Bazar
(Teknaf). According to the study, on average, 89 % of the respondents mentioned
that the disasters that are occurring are really affecting the damage of agriculture
production resulting in the food crisis in the villages (Fig. 10.6). The households of
Mongla remain the worst hit from food shortage as indicated by 99 % respondents
(highest), while the least affected people were found in Shyamnagar (71 %, lowest).
It was also found that damaged crops and livestock due to the last disaster
affected the communities. Most of the respondents (above 89 %) mentioned that
crop damage due to Cyclone Aila caused the food shortage in 2009/2010 in all of
the study locations (Fig. 10.7). Livestock was also hard hit in the study villages,
mentioned by 70 % of the respondents. It may be noted that poultry farming/rearing
is one of the most important livelihood options, especially for the women in the
rural areas.
180 Md.G. Rabbani et al.

100%

80%
Respondents (%)
60%

40%

20%

0%
Mongla Teknaf Koyra Kalapara Shyamnagar
Study Upazilla

Fig. 10.6 Percentage of respondents on disaster and food security in study coastal districts
Respondents (%)

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
House Crops Livestock
Type of damaged item

Fig. 10.7 Percentage of respondents on the type of damaged assets due to last disaster in the study
coastal districts

Table 10.1 Food availability all around the year in the study locations
Is the quantity of produced food Did you face food crisis
sufficient to meet your needs? in the previous year?
District Upazila (% said No) (% said Yes)
Bagerhat Mongla 64.0 88.0
Rampal 54.7 78.7
Bhola Manpura 43.4 91.8
Lakshmipur Kamal nagar 56.0 82.7
Coastal total 53.6 85.5

10.3.3 Case Study-3

Table 10.1 provides the state of food availability in 22 hard to reach villages
(very remote areas) of five Upazillas in three coastal districts of Bangladesh.
A Two-stage-Cluster Sampling procedure was adopted in selecting samples for
the household study. The study considered the village under a union (lowest admin-
istrative unit of the country) as the first stage-cluster and the beneficiary household
as the ultimate sampling unit. The study covering 422 households found that the
10 Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh 181

Table 10.2 What type of damage did you incur in the last disaster faced by your HH?
Types of % of HHs reported damage Avg. value (per reporting HH)
damaged assets in natural disaster of the damaged assets (US$)
House 77 104
Crops 29 119
Livestock 30 94
WatSan 52 10
Others 4 52
Total 84 178

community suffers from food crisis in different months of the year. In fact, about
54 % of the study households (on average) mentioned that the food that they
produce do not nearly meet their needs. On an average, more than 85 % of the
respondents stated that they had to face food crisis in the year before (2011).
The study also indicated that the last disaster severely affected the communities.
According to the estimate by Department of Agricultural Extension of Bangladesh,
the loss in rice equivalent is found at 1.23 Million tons, with 535,707 tons in the four
severely affected districts, 555,997 tons in badly affected 9 districts and 203,600
tons in moderately affected 17 districts in Bangladesh. More than 29 % of the study
households were affected by the last disaster (Table 10.2). Average value per
reporting household of the damaged crops due to the last disaster was found to
be 119 US Dollars.

10.4 State of Adaptation on the Agricultural Sector

The Government of Bangladesh has introduced a set of crop cultivars that are resil-
ient to climate-induced hazards like salinity. Three rice varieties are grown in three
different seasons: Aus, Aman and Boro (Rabbani et al. 2012). The season of Boro
refers to the cultivation that takes place in the months of December to May. In the
case of the cultivars that are farmed during this season, the seeds are sown first, and
then transplanted and the production has to be irrigated.
The season of Aus starts in April and ends in August. In Bangladesh, these
months are known for the monsoons, and the crops grown at Aus thus are rain fed.
June to December is known as the Aman season. This is the time of the year when
most natural, climate-related hazards hit the country, and harvests are often affected
as well. Productivity of Aman rice is particularly low in most of these coastal areas
because of excessive flooding (either partial or complete) and less adoption of suit-
able high yielding varieties (HYV) of rice (Rahman 2012). Some varieties of Aman
are scattered and raised, while others are transplanted. The yield of Aman is greater
than those grown in Aus and lower than those grown in Boro.
182 Md.G. Rabbani et al.

Rice Farmers Are Adapting with High Salinity in the Coastal Region
of Bangladesh!
Porimal Mondol (age ~40), a rice farmer of village-Harinagar, Union-
Munshiganj, Upazilla-Shyamnagar, District Satkhira was struggling with
traditional rice varieties during early 2001. The BRRI 28 production was
constantly decreasing during 2001–2007. Mr. Mondal nearly tripled his rice
yields in 2008, In 2010, the latest saline tolerant variety BINA 8 was practiced
by only 4–5 farmers in the village. Two years later, about 150 farmers had
attempted to grow BINA 8. Porimal says, “we grow 4.7 to 4.9 tons of rice/ha
with BINA 8 now”.
A similar rate of production was obtained from BRRI 47 in the same area.
Mr. Modal says, “We prefer cultivation of BRRI 28 because it looks thin,
attractive, low duration and we are habituated with this kind of rice”.
But due to increase of salinity in the soil (above 4 dS/m) in some areas we
are practicing BRRI 47 and BINA 8 (Source: Field visit, 1 June 2012).

The Ministry of Agriculture, and associated Departments and Institutes are

implementing adaptation programmes to address climate change. In addition to the
Annual Development Programme (ADP), these organizations receive financial
support from the Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF) and Bangladesh
Climate Resilient Fund (BCCRF) to implement adaptation projects in the agricul-
tural sector.
Seventeen rice varieties developed by the research institutes of the Government
of Bangladesh can withstand submergence (flood), drought and salinity (Table
10.3). Of them, nine varieties are resistant to various levels of salts, two varieties are
flood tolerant and the rest of the total is able to survive in drought conditions. Of the
total saline tolerant varieties, five are being practiced in different vulnerable areas
and the remaining two is said to be going to reach farmers soon (BRRI 53 and
BRRI). The following Table 10.3 shows the climate resistant rice varieties in
Bangladesh.

10.5 Conclusion

In order to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on food sector, we need
to analyze the possible options that could assist in increasing food security.
Therefore, adaptation in the agriculture sector must be well integrated with both the
broad national development goals and livelihood priorities at the local level.
The coastal zone is extremely vulnerable because of a number of climatic factors.
These include variations in temperature, erratic behavior of rainfall, cyclonic events,
10 Climate Change and Food Security in Vulnerable Coastal Zones of Bangladesh 183

Table 10.3 Climate related stress tolerant rice varieties developed by the BRRI and BINA for the
coastal region and Bangladesh
Climate tolerant Growth Average yield
Climate related stress rice variety duration (days) (ton/ha)
Flood (submergence) BRRI dhan 51 142–154 4
BRRI dhan 52 145–155 4.5
Salinity in soil, surface BRRI dhan 40 145 4.5
and ground water BRRI dhan 41 148 4.5
BR 10 150 5.5
BRRI 28 140 6.0
BR 23 150 5.5
BRRI dhan 27 115 4
BRRI dhan 47 152 6.0
BINA-8 130–135 5.0
BRRI 53 (proposed) 140 5.0
BRRI 54 (proposed) 140 5.0
Drought BRRI dhan 55 145 7.0
(also saline tolerant)
BRRI dhan 57 100 4.0
BRRI dhan 42 100 3.5
BRRI dhan 43 100 3.5
BRRI dhan 33 118 4.5
BRRI dhan 39 122 4.5
Source: updated from Huq and Rabbani (2011), BRRI (2014), Mazumdar (2011), The Financial
Express (2011), Salam et al. (2011), and The Daily Star (2010)

droughts and salinity intrusion. The potential sea level rise, predicted to happen,
may aggravate the vulnerability of the local communities especially in the coastal
zones. Currently, the cyclones, accompanied by storm surges and increase of salin-
ity intrusion in the water and soils of the area, are the major catastrophic phenomena
for the coastal communities.
The coastal region of Bangladesh is deprived of the technological advancement
in agriculture. Only very few agricultural technologies are suitable to adopt directly
in the coastal saline areas of Bangladesh. All these climatic hazards critically affect
the agricultural production, inevitably resulting in crisis of food in most of the
coastal districts. This in turn leads on to various other secondary impacts and it has
become absolutely necessary to strengthen the technological innovations that are
being used at present for agriculture and for adaptation, building of the capacities of
the local government officials and farmers to adapt and sustain agricultural practices
in these vulnerable coastal zones.
Baseline and Needs Assessment surveys need to be conducted in these areas,
with specific focus on the varying disasters and hazards like salinity, and diversified,
saline and flood resistant varieties of crops need to be introduced to them.
Furthermore, proper dissemination of information to the farmers of these areas
184 Md.G. Rabbani et al.

needs to be done, in order for them to be able to adapt to the new and varying
technology being introduced to them. Early warning systems, crop-based weather
and flood forecasting systems, improved drainage, and an immediate introduction
of technological innovations like floating agriculture need to be implemented in
these areas, not only to ensure the unimpeded development and food security of the
coastal zones, but also to ensure that the whole of Bangladesh continues to receive
the support that the coastal zone provides.

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