Bangladesh Power Sector An Appraisal From A Multi Dimensional Perspective

ABSTRACT
Power & Energy is one of the prime mover of economic growth.

Bangladesh offers attractive investment opportunity for the
private entrepreneurs in the power sector.
Progressive efforts
from the policymakers, effective participation from the private
entrepreneurs and support from the development partners has
BANGLADESH
transformed Bangladesh power sector into almost self-reliant
within short span of time.
Author
POWER
SECTO Mohammad Asrarul Haque
Research Analyst
e-mail:research@eblsecurities.com
R
An appraisal from a multi
perspective (part-1
-dimensional
Date of Publication
) 03 September2020
EQUITY RESEARCH
Bangladesh power sector: An appraisal from a multi-dimensional perspective (Part-1)
Table of Contents
Review of the Power Sector Development in Bangladesh................................................................................................................2
Structural Reforms in Bangladesh Power Sector...............................................................................................................................3
Consumer Segmentation & Drivers of Growing Electricity Demand.................................................................................................4
Demand-Supply Scenario..................................................................................................................................................................4
Primary Fuel Supply Scenario............................................................................................................................................................ 6
Local Industry Transformation: Journey From Public to Private Sector Power Generation...............................................................7
Investment Opportunity in Bangladesh Power Generation Sector...................................................................................................8
Financing Power Generation Projects in Bangladesh........................................................................................................................8
Review of the Bangladesh Power Generation Plans.........................................................................................................................9
Evaluation of the Power Generation Planning in Bangladesh.........................................................................................................12
Present tariff structure in the electricity generation sector............................................................................................................14
Reasons for Frequent Load-Shedding & Power Cut amidst Overcapacity.......................................................................................15
Power Transmission & Distribution System in Bangladesh.............................................................................................................15
The Viability of Power Sector from The Financial Perspective........................................................................................................17
Bangladesh Private Power Generation Industry Review.................................................................................................................19
Concluding Commentary................................................................................................................................................................ 20
This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September 2020
N.B.: Disclaimer of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the report.
Page 2 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
Growing demand for power indicates promising industry prospect, however,

shortterm over-capacity bringing new challenges to the government & industry
players
The performance of Bangladesh’s power its one of the key barrier in achieving such growth. The government of Bangladesh (GOB) has
sector in last decade has been impressive recognized that the pace of power development has to be accelerated in order to achieve
due to the progressive efforts from the
policymakers, effective participation overall economic development targets of the country.
from the private entrepreneurs and To meet the increasing demand for Power, the government of Bangladesh undertook some
support from the development partners
pragmatic steps towards increasing the power supply within the short span of time by
Incessant supply of power and
encouraging more private sector power generation as well as import of power from native
energy is the prerequisite for the
countries. The performance of Bangladesh’s power sector in last decade has been impressive
progress of an economy. The
due to the progressive efforts from the policymakers, effective participation from the private
importance of energy is even more
entrepreneurs and support from the development partners. The government of Bangladesh has
supplementary in the context of
set a target to bring the whole country under electricity coverage by 2021.
Bangladesh, an emerging economy
that has been enjoying rapid This report (Part 1) contains major highlight on the ongoing state of power generation and
economic growth but also supply in Bangladesh, major steps and new approvals of power projects as well as financial
experiencing prolonged period of viability of the power sector in Bangladesh. In this report, we tried to present the state and
energy crisis. Bangladesh is one of performance of power sector from various perspectives; from the view point of the
Asia's buoyant emerging economy government/public interest as well as from the view point of the investment potential by
that has a growing need for power private power producers. We tried to appraise the sector performance both from the
and energy. Bangladesh aspires to operational and financial perspectives. Our upcoming report (Part 2) will cover major highlights
achieve middle income country of the listed power generation companies, their comparative financial performance, investment
status by 2021 and also targets to be insights and operation detail, risk assessments and investment potentials in the shares of listed
in the ‘high-income country’ club by power generation, distribution and transmission companies.
2041. The movement towards a
progressive national economy Review of the Power Sector Development in Bangladesh
strongly depends on the Power sector in Bangladesh has witnessed big hit in terms of generation after the Awami League
uninterrupted supply of power and led government came to the power in 2009. Over the last decade, power sector in Bangladesh
energy to cater to the industrial and has seen impressive growth, one of the fastest in South Asia, aided by government’s heavy
domestic demand. In order to emphasis on the power sector and favorable policy support. Last 11 years CAGR in terms of
achieve its ambitious socioeconomic capacity was 15.3%. The Awami League government, after taking power, realized that a quick
growth target, it has successfully solution was required to mitigate huge power crisis at that time and decided to invite more
identified shortage of electricity as private entrepreneurs to invest in power generation and increase power generation capacity
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EQUITY RESEARCH
within shortest span of time by was created considering the growing demand for electricity and its importance in agriculture &
setting up Rental Power Plants industry. Later the “WAPDA” was divided into two parts namely “Bangladesh Power
(RPPs) and Quick Rental Power Development Board” & “Bangladesh Water Development Board” by the Presidential Order 59
The power sector in Bangladesh has (PO-59) of 31st May 1972. As a result, Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) was
witnessed several reform initiatives over entrusted with the responsibilities of Operation, Maintenance, and Development of Generation,
the last century. Transmission & Distribution facilities of electricity throughout the country. By the ordinance
Plants (QRPPs). Even with (Ordinance No-LI of 1977), Rural Electrification Board (REB) was established for the
significantly higher generation cost, development of electricity in the rural areas for the effective benefit of rural people on October,
it has significantly reduced power 1977. Today there are 80 numbers of operating rural electric cooperatives called Palli Bidyuit
shortage and load-shedding within Samity (PBS), which provide service to approximately 26.459 million new connections and
short time. construct more than 0.482 million kms of line.
Structural Reforms in As part of the “Reforms-Funding” linkage agreed between the development partners and the
Government, the implementation of Part (C) of the Project has been linked to redefining the
Bangladesh Power Sector franchise area of DESA and handing over of distribution networks outside Metropolitan Dhaka
The electricity supply industry in City to PBSs under REB, and formation of a corporatized Dhaka Electric Supply company (DESCO)
South Asia started with the which will initially take over part of the distribution network of DESA and ultimately take over all
commissioning of the first power its assets. Under the reform program Dhaka Electric Supply Authority (DESA) was created for the
station in the 1890s. The first effort proper management & electrification in Dhaka city and its adjoining areas in 1990. DESCO has
to structure a legal framework for started functioning from 1996 after taking over part of the distribution network of DESA. DESA
the industry came in 1910 with the was reformed again as Dhaka Power Distribution Company (DPDC) in July, 2008.
enactment of the Indian Electricity
Under the Companies Act 1994, Power Grid Company (PGCB) was created in 1996 to look after
Act, 1910. In 1947, at the time of
the transmission system. The main operating function of PGCB is wheeling of energy from BPDB
independence of India & Pakistan,
power stations and Generation Companies to Distribution
entities utilizing transmission network. PGCB gets its energy
wheeling charge from its clients (distribution entities) at the
rate fixed by Bangladesh Electricity Regulatory Commission
(BERC).
Ashuganj Power Station has been converted into Ashuganj
Power Station Company Ltd. (APSCL) in 1996, as a subsidiary
company of BPDB. Northern Electricity Supply Company Ltd.
(NESCO) was created in 2016 to look after the distribution
system of Rajshahi and Rangpur zone. NESCO is a distribution
subsidiary of BPDB. West Zone Power Distribution Company
Ltd. (WZPDCL) was created in 2002 to look after the
distribution system of Barishal and Khulna Zone. WZPDCL is a
distribution subsidiary of BPDB. Electricity Generation
Company of Bangladesh (EGCB) has been formed as a
Generation Company since 2004. EGCB has implemented
2x105 MW Peaking Power Plant at Shiddirgonj, 412 MW CCPP
at Haripur and 335 MW CCPP at Shiddirgonj. North West
1
Source:BPDB and DESCO annual reports and respective company
websites. Power Generation Company (NWPGCL) was created in 2008.
NWPGCL has implemented 225 MW Combined Cycle Power
Plant at Sirajganj, 225 MW Combined cycle Power Plant at
the installed generating capacity in Khulna, 360 MW Combined cycle Power Plant at Bheramara,
the then East Pakistan was only 21 225 MW Combined cycle Power Plant at Sirajganj (2nd unit), 225 MW Combined cycle Power
MW. In order to formulate plans Plant at Sirajganj (3rd unit) and 105 MW power plant at modhumoti, Bagerhat.
and improve power supply situation
As a part of the new reform initiative, BPDB is currently in the process of identifying Strategic
of the country, the Electricity
Business Unit (SBU) for its generation and distribution sectors. According to the BPDB latest
Directorate was established in 1948.
annual report, functional and financial performance of the SBUs will be operated like
Later, in 1959, “Water & Power
components of a corporate body and will be evaluated separately under the legal frame work of
Development Authority” (WAPDA)
existing BPDB structure. 1
Consumer Segmentation & Drivers of Growing Electricity Demand
Majority of the power consumption demand comes from domestic & industrial sector of the
country. RMG manufacturing, construction &
Increasing
Population
purchase infrastructure development, and pharmaceutical
growth
power sector are key growth drivers within the industrial
sector. In FY2018-19, 53% of the country’s total
power were consumed by domestic sector while
Drivers of industrial sector consumed 30% of the total power
Exelarated growing
This research report
domestic is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September 2020
electricity Urbanization
power
N.B.: Disclaimer demand
of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the report.
generation
Page 2 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
demand. Besides, commercial segment also consumed 12% of the total power consumption. In
2019-20, share of domestic users might increase while that of industrial and commercial spaces
may decline due to COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and resultants general holidays for more than
two months.
Key drivers of the power consumption growth are- steady population growth, urbanization, increasing per-capital income and
higher purchase power, change in the life-style of country people, industrialization and increased digitalization. Bangladesh
population has been growing by around 1.5% each year. According to “World Population Prospects (WPP) 2015”, population
Policy- Change in of Bangladesh will be 202 Million in 2050. Growing population imply an increasing demand for supportlife-style
power consumption and widening gap between supply and demand. Besides, demand for
power is likely to increase substantially in line with rapid urbanization. Meanwhile, access to
electricity in the country has seen steady improvement over the years as the country went
through long period of economic growth while favorable government policies to generate
power in line with growing demand.
Power Consumption Pattern of the Country Area-wise Electricity Demand (2018-19)

Sylhet Barisal Rangpur
4% 3% 7%
Mymensin Dhaka
Industrial gh 34%
30% 8%
Domestic
Commercial
53% Comilla
12%
10%
Rajshahi Chittagon
11% g
Agriculture Khulna 10%
3% 13%
Others
2%
Source: BPDB Annual Report (2018-19) Source: BPDB (As on 26 July 2020)
Demand-Supply Scenario
After prolonged period of scarcity, supply of power in Bangladesh is currently in excess of the
demand: Power generation capacity has been escalated over the last decade eying towards
growing demand. To meet increasing demand for Power, the Government of Bangladesh (GoB)
Power generation capacity has been has undertaken some pragmatic steps towards increasing power supply within short span of time
escalated over the last decade eying

towards growing demand. by encouraging private sector power production as well as import of power from
neighboring
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Present power generation capacity of the Year-wise Peak Demand Forcast (MW) (base case)
country is 20,813 MW, excluding captive
77,540
73,607
power & renewable energy while
70,102
66,456
62,905
maximum power generation is as high as
59,480
56,125
90,000
52,590
49,254
12,900 MW
45,797
80,000
42,651
39,663
36,876
70,000
34,188
31,623
29,130
26,731
60,000
24,393
22,173
20,067
18,023
15,809
50,000
13,975
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
2024
2027
2028
2030
2033
2039
2041
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2025
2026
2029
2031
2032
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2040
Source: PSMP 2016 (Revisiting)- Published in November 2018, Page- 27
Electricity generation capacity of the

country stands at 23,548 MW as on
June 2020. However, excluding
captive power & renewable energy,
installed capacity of the country’s
power sector was 20,383 MW as on
June 2020 against average daily
electricity consumption demand of
9,00011,000 MW, according to
Bangladesh Power Development
Board. However, electricity
generation reaches to as high as
12,900 MW during summer while it
falls down to as low as 6000MW in
winter. Power demand reaches the
highest level in April. Therefore,
April is the highest power
consumption month and December
is the lowest consumption month.
Year Wise Per Capita Generation

and Consumption (Grid)
Source: BPDB Annual Report (2018-19)
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Forecasted Energy Generation &
Consumption Demand (base-

case)
Primary Fuel Supply Scenario
Up until 2016, the major consideration of energy source
Types of Power Plant Based on Fuel Use
for power generation was Natural gas, which is now

being shifted to Coal and LNG, as the deposited amount
of natural gas remains uncertain. Due to no significant
Natural Gas Based
gas discovery in recent years, the country is now facing
shortage of gas supply that has been discouraging gas
Furnace Oil Based
based power generation; therefore the government is
Heavy Fuel Oil now looking for big power projects to be run on Coal or
Based other types of Energy in the near future. Meanwhile,
High Speed Diesel Bangladesh has already started to import LNG and
Based planning to shift its concentration to LNG based power
stations in future.
Coal Fired
Import of LNG and implementation of LNG based power
Hydro-Based project might mitigate the power crisis and can be an
alternative low cost fuel for producing electricity.
As of now, Furnace Oil, HFO and Diesel based plants are the best available alternatives for
producing electricity. However, Oil based power plants are highly expensive compared to Gas
based plants. So, Oil based plants are only short term solution to mitigate the supply shortage
of power within the shortest period of time.
Coal is next available alternative. It can be a near term option and can be indigenous or
imported. However, Coal based power projects are highly debated as they might be harmful for
the environment. Since the last few years, the government has been encouraging coal based
projects for mitigating electricity shortage and to reduce dependency on gas based expensive
fuel oil based plants.
Installed Capacity
Hydro(MW) of BPDB Power Plants Net Generation (National) By Fuel Type (2018-19)
Imported Renewable
by Fuel Type*
HSD
1.1% 5.7% Energy Coal
0.2% 5.6% C
6.3%
HSD o
F.Oil 3% 0% a
F.Oil
27.2% Hydro l
16%
1% 2
Gas
53.9%
Page 2 of 24
Coal F.Oil Gas
HFO HSD Hydro
EQUITY RESEARCH
HFO Imported Renewable %

0.0% 10% Energy
Coal
HFO
Im
por
ted
Gas
Hyd
ro
Renewable Energy
Source: BPDB & EBLSL Research;*As on June 2020
Nuclear power is said to be safe technology; no pollution and expected to be future Base Load
option (power stations which can economically generate the electrical power needed to satisfy
this minimum demand). Nuclear energy is as safe as or safer than any other form of energy
available. Though there are concerns and myths about the explosion risk of such plants, three
most serious nuclear accidents- Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi, suggests
that the direct threat on human life has actually been overstated. 1 Data compiled by the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that it is safer to work at a nuclear power plant than in the
manufacturing sector, leisure and hospitality industries, and financial sectors. 2 In fact, nuclearany other
Nuclear energy is as safe as or safer than
form of energy available. power plant accidents aren't very frequent, but when they happen they can be very terrible. 3 In 1986 when the
Chernobyl nuclear reactor exploded, it released 5% of its nuclear reactor core into the atmosphere. The explosion resulted in the
diagnosis of 237 people with Acute Radiation Syndrome (ARS) and was later confirmed in 134 cases. Of the 134 confirmed cases 28
people died as a result of ARS within a few weeks of the accident. The government of Bangladesh is investing heavily to construct
nuclear based power generation plant at Rooppur, Pabna having 2,400 MW capacity.
Natural Due to no significant gas discovery in recent years, the country is facing shortage of gas
Gas supply that ultimately discouraging gas based power supply
LNG Import of LNG and implementation of LNG based power project may mitigate the ongoing
gas crisis for producing electricity.
Furnace Furnace Oil, HFO and Diesel based plants are the best available short-term alternatives for
Oil, HFO producing electricity but at high cost.
and
Diesel
Coal Coal based power projects are comparatively cheaper and require big investments but are
highly debated as they might be harmful for the environment.
Nuclear Nuclear is said to be the safe technology; no pollution; expected to be future Base Load
option however, requires huge investments and sophisticated technological knowledge.
Though public sector accounts for

highest power generation of the
Local Industry Transformation: Journey From Public to Private Sector
country, the contribution from private Power Generation
sector is also on the rise
Power generation sector in Bangladesh offers lucrative business opportunities for private
entrepreneurs. Private sector in Bangladesh now account for almost 45% of the total
generation capacity. Though public sector accounts for highest power generation of the
1 https://thebulletin.org/2020/08/dont-let-nuclear-accidents-scare-you-away-from-nuclear-power/
2 https://www.nei.org/resources/fact -sheets/safety-nuclear-energy-industry-highest-priority
3 http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2018/ph241/antoine2/
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EQUITY RESEARCH
country, the contribution from encourage private sector investment in the power sector of the country, the government of
private sector is also on the rise Bangladesh has adopted several policies notably Private Sector Power Generation Policy of
driven by the government policy Bangladesh, 1996 (revised in 2004) and Policy Guideline for Enhancement of Private
towards increasing power supply at Participation in the Power Sector, 2008. The government also took step to revise the Electricity
the earliest by encouraging more Act 1910, which has been renamed as Electricity Act 2016, where adequate provisions have
private investment in this sector. been kept to facilitate private companies to participate in developing
Private power generating plants enjoy exemption of corporate income tax for a period of 15 years.
Present Installed Generation
Capacity (MW)
Public Sector
BPDB
APSCL
EGCB
NWPGCL
RPCL
Subtotal
Joint Venture
B-R Power gen (JV of BPDB-RPCL)
BCPCL (JV of NWPGCL & CMC,

China)
Subtotal
The government formulated short and intermediate term in 2009 (PSMP-2010) and later a long term plan
149 (1%) up to 2041
Private Sector (PSMP 2016). To achieve the government’s target to cover the whole country under electricity, the
country requires multibillion dollar investments in the power sector.
IPPs the country’s power sector. As per the Private Sector Power Generation Policy of Bangladesh,
SIPPs (BPDB) the Power Cell as the agent of Government of Bangladesh assigns which organization would be
the power purchaser from IPP at the time of issuance of Request for Proposal (REP).
SIPPs (REB)
15 YR. Rental Investment Opportunity in Bangladesh Power Generation Sector

3/5 YR. Rental Bangladesh offers attractive investment potential for FDI, particularly for the power sector. Its
Subtotal capital account is freely convertible for FDI. The Independent Power Policy of Bangladesh has
been able to attract FDI since 1996 having good track records. FDI inflow to Bangladesh has
been rising, and the power sector accounts for around 10.12% of total FDI at the end of March
2020. Besides, the sector also offers attractive incentives for local entrepreneurs as well in the
Bheramara HVDC
form of tax exemption various lucrative policy support. Currently, Bangladesh power sector is
Tripura offering private investment & FDI mainly in following areas4;
Power Import
Subtotal 1. Coal based power plants, including secured access to coal supply
2. LNG based power plants
TOTAL* 3. Renewable energy projects
*Excluding Captive Power & Renewable 4. Cross-border power projects including Hydro power plants
Energy 5. Projects to enhance energy efficiency, energy conservation and Demand Side
Management (DSM)
6. Projects for transmission and distribution capacity expansion
The private sector has invested
7. About US$ 17 billion invested during 2009 to 2018
more than USD15 billion over the
8. US$ 150 billion investment will be required for new generation between 2019 to 2041
last decade by setting up power
plants. BIPPA (Bangladesh 9. US$ 31 billion would be required for transmission network between 2019 to 2041
Independent Power Producers 10. US$ 35 billion would be required for distribution network between 2019 to 2041
Association) leaders in 2018 said 11. Average US$ 9 billion would be required each per year
that they have plans to invest
USD50 billion within 2030 to keep The GoB has shown a strong commitment to attract private sector investments and provide an
up the private sector's participation investment-friendly environment in power sector with a number of incentives and facilities.
in power sector development. To
4 https://bit.ly/3imIDpD
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EQUITY RESEARCH
1. Exemption of corporate income 9. Remittance of up to 50% of salary of the foreigners employed in Bangladesh and facilities
tax for a period of 15 years. for repatriation of their savings and retirement benefits at the time of their return
2. Exemption of customs duties, 10. Exemption of income tax for up to three years for the expatriate personnel employed
VAT and surcharges on plant, under the approved industry.
equipment and spare parts. 11. Exemption from income tax for foreign lenders to such projects.
3. Tax exemption on capital gains Out of the total 20,383MW power generation capacity of the country as on 30 June 2020, public
from transfer of shares by sectors capacity stands at 9,568 MW, private sector capacity stands at 8,884 MW, 771 MW is
foreign investors. produced under JV (private and public), and 1160 MW is being imported. Besides, power
4. Facilities for repatriation of generation capacity of the captive power projects and renewable energy now stands at 2,800
equity along with dividends. MW and 365MW respectively.
5. Tax exemption on royalties,
technical know-how and
technical assistance for their Financing Power Generation Projects in Bangladesh
repatriation Investment in power sector is capital intensive. The government formulated short and
6. Avoidance of double taxation intermediate term in 2009 (PSMP-2010) and later a long term plan up to 2041 (PSMP 2016). To
for foreign investors through achieve the government’s target to cover the whole country under electricity, the country
bilateral agreements. requires multibillion dollar investments in the power sector. As a result, the government is
7. The foreign investors will be increasingly diversifying the sources of investment.
free to enter into joint ventures
Financing any large project in Bangladesh is a bit challenging. Bangladesh money market does
but this is optional and not
not have the depth, and building a long-term yield curve for BDT is a serious challenge. So, the
mandatory
country is likely to face challenges to finance such investment requirement. Traditionally,
8. No restrictions work permit power projects in Bangladesh have been financed by a consortium of local banks, non-banking
issuance to project-related financial
foreign nationals.
institutions (NBFIs), international financial institutions (debt or equity investments), export

credit agencies (ECAs) and foreign investors.
Investment Requirement for New Generation, Transmission & Distribution (in billion US$)
High Case Study Low Case Study
90 80
80 70
12 12
70 60
60 13 13
50
50 7 40 7
40 5 7 9 5 7 9
30 6 30 6 6
56 6 47
20 38 20
27 29 31 26 24
10 10
0 0
2017-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2041 2017-2025 2026-2030 2031-2035 2036-2041
Generation Transmission Distribution Generation Transmission Distribution
Source: PSMP 2016 (Revisiting)- Published in November 2018
Small power projects are attracting private sector investment while the government is
seeking
Small power projects are attracting innovative financing through joint venture and the ECA (Export Credit Agency) backed
private sector investment while the financing for large power projects, like coal based plants, considering the high capital
government is seeking innovative
investment requirement and modern technology and managerial skills. As the loan from
financing through joint venture and
the ECA (Export Credit Agency) development partners have been squeezed, the government has formulated strategic policy
backed financing for large power for bringing private sector investment, joint venture and innovative financing for
projects. implementing the long term plans. The government is now preparing a policy guideline to
encourage more private sector investment in power transmission and distribution segments
beside the current trend of investment in generation segment.
Capital Structure & Financing: Power Plants are mainly financed by debt based capital
structure. The usual practice by Rental, Quick Rental and IPP Private Power Companies is 70-
90% of the total project cost is financed by debt and rest 10-30% is financed by equity
investment. However, for availing foreign loan, a company must have at least 30% equity
investment for power project financing.
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EQUITY RESEARCH
Review of the
4.2%
Bangladesh
Gas Turbine(CT)
36.0% Reciprocating Engine (RE)
Power
38.3%
Power Import Generation Plans
Solar PV The development of power sector is required to be accelerated
Installed Capacity (MW) of BPDB Power Plants
Hydro by Plant Type
14.6% 5.7% to increase access and attain target economic development.
Steam Turbine (ST) The government has formulated ‘Power System Master Plan’
Combined Cycle (CC) with assistance from Japan International Cooperation Agency
1.1% 0.2% (JICA). The capacity building of the country’s power generation
is being implemented on three major stages. Resource scarcity
and the associated geopolitics and economics of gas, oil, and
coal supply are key factors shaping the power market policy. A
Source: BPDB & EBLSL Research (As on June 2020)
long term plan of power generation up to 2030 was made in
Power System Master Plan (PSMP)-2010. The PSMP is updated
every 5 years due to changes of planning perspective. The
report. Power System Master Plan (PSMP)-2016, an updated version of
PSMP-2010, was prepared in aiming at formulating a
comprehensive energy and power development
plan, complied with the strategy of diversifying primary
fuel supply. The plan period for PSMP-2016 is 2016-2041. In
November 2018, the PSMP was updated further and revised
version was published by the Power Division, Ministry of
Power, and Energy & Mineral Resources. The revisiting PSMP
was published with expectation of even higher power sector demand compared to the earlier forecast, addressing regional
balances, fuel diversification, distribution infrastructure, demand side
management, investment and generation cost issues. Future demand forecast and power generation plan from distribution and
generation entities were considered in preparing the
Plant setup time and power purchase agreement duration varies based on the raw-materials
and technology used: The installation timeframe is significantly lower for diesel/ HFO based
plants compared to others. Diesel plants can be installed within 4-6 months and connected to
Page 2 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
the grid while furnace oil-fired plants can be installed within 9-18 months. The usual agreement
tenure of these QRPPs is 3 to 5 years and for RPPs it is 15 years, after which they were to be
retired. More economic, larger power plants were to replace them. However, there remains
provision for further extension of the contract period.
Though natural gas was the primary source of power generation previously, recent
concentration was on fuel oil based generators to respond to immediate power crisis ahead of
last national election.
Some key terminologies of the private power generation sector are:

Independent Power Producer (IPP)
• An Independent Power Producer (IPP) is an entity, which is not a public utility, but which
owns facilities to generate electric power for sale to utilities and end users.
• Implementation agreement is guaranteed by the government.
Rental & Quick Rental Power Plants (RPP or QRPP):

• Rental & Quick Rental power plants are set up to meet short-term and emergency
requirements of a country and are typically commissioned within 4-18 months based on
available technology.
• Rental periods are normally 5 years (for QRPP) to 15 years (for RPP depending on the
country’s need. Generally, the power producing equipment are easily moveable and
quickly installable.
• Implementation agreement is guaranteed by any utility economic entity not by the
government.
Captive Power Plants (CPP):

• Captive power plants are those power plants which operate independent of wheeling to
national grid. They are mostly meant by in-house power generation for industry.
• If excess electricity is generated and transmission line to national grid is available, excess
power can be sold to utility company subject to the agreement between the two.
Short-term Project Intermediate term Project Long Term Project

Plant type: IPP, rental or quick rental Plant type: IPP & Public Plant type: IPP & Public
Ownership type: Private Ownership type: Public & Private Ownership type: Public & Private
Fuel type: HSD, HFO, Gas Fuel type: LNG & Renewable energy Fuel type: Coal, Nuclear
Generation Cost: High Generation Cost: Medium Generation Cost: Low
Implementation time frame: Implementation time frame: 2-3 Implementation time frame:
Fast Track Projects: HSD: 4-6 Months Years 3-5 Years
HFO: 9-18 Months
Contact Duration: QRPPs: 3-5 years; Contact Duration: 20-30 years Contact Duration: Not specified
IPP/Rental: 15 years
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EQUITY RESEARCH
Generation capacity and plant factor from existing power plants will decrease gradually as the
time passes due to expiration and shut-down of some plants and consequently widens the gap
between generation capacity and demand, which has also been stated in Revisiting PSMP 2016.
Due to regular retirement of these power plants, this capacity will be decreased gradually and
will stand at, only 830 MW in 2041. So, to meet up future demand and maintain sufficient
reserve margin (most of the countries usually maintain reserve margin 10-20% of maximum
demand as insurance against breakdowns in part of the system or sudden increases in energy
demand), new generation capacity addition will be required from committed and candidate
power plants.
Revisiting PSPM 2016: Comparison between existing generation capacity and forecasted high and low case demand (without
EE&C)
Existing Generation Capacity and High case Existing Generation Capacity and Low case
Demand Demand
90,000 80000
80,000 70000
70,000 60000
60,000
50000
50,000
40000
40,000
30000
30,000
20,000 20000
10,000 10000
0 0
2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Existing Capacity High Case (MW) Demand High Case (MW) Existing Capacity Low Case (MW) Demand Low Case (MW)
Source: Revisiting PSMP 2016 (Published in November 2018)
New Contact Sign
Plant Type No. of Power Plant Projects Installed Capacity Already

Commissioned
Public 55 16,171 6,305 (37)
Rental 20 1,653 1,653 (20)
IPP 74 13,104 6009 (46)
Total 149 30,748 13,967 (103)
Source: http://www.powercell.gov.bd; February 2020
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
Under Construction & Tendering Process Projects: As on February 2020, 48 projects of capacity 16,875 MW were under construction
Year Planned Generation (MW) stage, 149 projects of capacity 30,748 MW are now in the singing process and 6 projects of
capacity 650 MW were are now in tendering process while 16 new public power plants having
2020 23,000 capacity of 19,100 were currently under planning stage.
2021 24,000
The power demand in Bangladesh was projected to be 33,708 MW by 2030 as per PSMP 2010
2030 40,000 and 39,663 MW as per revisiting PSMP-2016 (base-case). However, the government of
2041 60,000 Bangladesh is planning to increase its power generation capacity beyond its projected demand
Source: Power System Master Plan 201

6
to 40,000 MW by 2030 in order to boost the nation’s fast
-growing economy.
Power Plants Under Tender Process (Capacity in MW) Power Plants Under Tender Process (Plants Count)
Private,
250
Public, 1
400
Public Private
Source: http://www.powercell.gov.bd; January 2020
of 24
Rental or quick rental basis power
projects on private ownership basis were
permitted in last decade as a short term
solution
Actual progress of the coal based plant

didn’t happen as expected due to
scarcity of financing
Page 11
60
6,073
18
Public,
EQUITY RESEARCH 9,812
Bangladesh power sector: An appraisal from a multi-dimensional Public

perspective (Part-1)
Private
Power Plants Under-Construction (Capacity in MW) Power Plants Under-Construction (Plants Count)
Source: COVID-19 pandemic has slowed down the consumption demand, still more than 45% of the
http://www.powercell.gov.bd; generation capacity remains unutilized.
January 2020
High dependency on coal based plants for long term power generation may not be as viable
as it ought to be: The country’s future energy plan relies heavily on imported coal and liquefied
natural gas (LNG). The coal has been considered as the prime source of power generation for
Evaluation of the Power the long term option in PSMP. As a way of low-cost sustainable power generation option, the
Generation Planning in government planned to increase Coal fired power projects in coming years. The government
also planned to increase share of coal based power to 21% by 2020 (end of the Seventh Plan)
Bangladesh and subsequently to 50% by FY2030. However, actual progress of the coal based plant didn’t
The country’s power generation happen as expected. Shares of coal based power plants within total generation capacity stands
capacity has witnessed a boost in at 5.62% only as on June 2020.
past decade riding on shortterm
In PSMP-2016, the government planned to increase use of coal and reduce use of domestic
costly projects, however, no
natural gas for power generation. PSMP 2016 outlined 55,138 MW power generation by 2041,
significant progress yet observed in
designing 35% electricity from coal, 35% from gas and remaining 30% from other sources
intermediate & longterm projects:
including nuclear and import. On that basis the government is implementing a number of
In the last decade, the government
coalfired power plants in next 5-6 years. The Government planned to set up 25 coal-fired power
of Bangladesh has prioritized on the
plants by 2022, to generate 23,692 MW, in order to meet rising electricity demand. Of the total,
capacity enhancement of the
16 to be built by the public sector and 9 by the private sector. 6 Thirteen of the planned plants
country’s electricity generation on
are funded by Chinese state-owned and private companies, and five are under construction.
immediate basis (but at high cost),
One of the plants is being financed by the Chinese-dominated multilateral Asian Infrastructure
for which it went for some rental or
Investment Bank (AIIB). These ongoing coal based projects have a total capacity of 13,000
quick rental basis power projects on
megawatts.
private ownership basis as a short
term solution. Moreover, to reduce
the legislative delay, the
government has also permitted
several of the private sponsors to
6set up power generation stations
within the stipulated timeframe.
Most of those plants were awarded
based on unsolicited bid offers
under the Speedy Supply of Power
and Energy (Special Provision) Act
2010.
Long term power generation plans
still superfluous, deserves careful
reassessment: In the PSMP -2010
demand forecast was made based
on 7% yearly GDP growth rate
forecast. Based upon this study the
peak demand would be about
17,304 MW in FY2020 and 33,708
MW in 2030. Moreover, the
government of Bangladesh plans to
increase its power generation
capacity beyond its projected
demand to 40,000 MW by 2030 in
order to boost the nation’s fast-
growing economy. However, as on
today, actual scenario is significantly
different from what was earlier
projected. As per the revisiting
PSMP, forecasted peak demand in
2020 was 15,809 MW. However,
reported maximum electricity
demand served so far was 12,893
MW as on 29 May 2019 and highest
power generation in 2020 YTD
was12536 MW. Even though
reduced economic activities due to
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
Planned & Under-construction Coal Based Mega Plants
Name Capacity Executing Agency Completion

Date
Moittri Super Thermal Power Project 1320 MW Bangladesh -India JV June,2019
Matarbari Coal Based Power Pant 1200 MW CPGCBL June, 2022
Paira Coal Based Power Plant 1320 MW NWPGCL-China JV June, 2022
G to G Coal Based Power Plant 1320 MW Bangladesh –S. Korea JV June, 2023
Moheshkhali Coal Based Power Plant 1200 MW BPDB June,2021
Moheshkhali Coal Based Power Plant 1320 MW Bangladesh -Malaysia JV June, 2022
Ashuganj 2x660 MW Power Plant 1320 MW APSCL November,
2019
1320 MW Coal Based Power Plant 1320 MW BPDB –CHDHK, China JV June, 2021
Source: http://www.powercell.gov.bd/
Long term Due to unwillingness of

supply of private investors, renewable
coal is energy usage in Bangladesh
becoming didn’t progressed as
uncertain expected.
as future However, due to slow
mining of implementation progress,
coal is
becoming poor planning, funding
uncertain crisis etc. coal based
due to power generation lagging
pro-active
far behind the plan. Under
efforts by
the anti- the new thought, the use
coal of LNG or gas for power
lobbies generation will go up and
and
the use of coal as primary
unwilling
ness of fuel will be reduced as the
major government has been
lenders facilitating more LNG
import beyond the plan
and allowing to set up
more LNG-based power
plants beyond the PSMP
2016.
Meanwhile, long term
supply of coal is becoming
uncertain as future mining
of coal is becoming
uncertain due to pro-
Under the active efforts by the anti-
new coal lobbies. Use of coal
thought, bears threats to
generation
capacity biodiversity. The anti-coal
share of lobby has targeted the
Gas/LNG insurers and re-insurers of
fired coal mines and projects
plants will
now be and the withdrawal of
higher insurance has the
instead of potential to make coal
the mining and coal-fired
coalbased
capacity power generation
businesses unsustainable
because no project can
run without insurance.
According to March 14,
2020 report of the Carbon
This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September
2020
N.B.: Disclaimer of the EBL Securities Ltd, the author(s) certification and rating definition have been provided at the end of the
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
Tracker to finance coal projects.
Initiative, Even some Chinese banks
a have also walked away
nonprofit from financing coal. So, it
research is becoming increasingly
organiza difficult to secure
tion, it is financing for coal based
already plants.
cheaper The government is now
to build shifting its concentration
new to imported LNG, as way
renewabl for low cost long term
es than energy sources for power
to build generation: Though Coal
new coal was initially considered as
plants, in the prime fuel for long
all major term project, there is no
markets visible success till date.
(includin Besides, coal power has
g USA, become costlier in recent
China, years than clean power.
India, Hence, the government
Banglade has revised its long term
sh etc.). power system master plan
By 2030, by incorporating more
it could power contribution from
be LNG rather than Coal.
cheaper Generation capacity share
to build of Gas/LNG fired plants
new will now be higher in
renewabl comparison to coal-based
es than capacity, as per revisiting
to run PSMP-2016. Power
existing Division suggested to
coal.5 convert coal based power
Internati plants that made little
onal progress or could not
financier secure financing into LNG
s such as based plants. Ministry of
the Asian Power, Energy and
Develop Mineral Resources has
ment already sought the prime
Bank and minister's approval to
Work convert 13 large coal
Bank power projects out of 18
have also ongoing projects into
changed clean liquefied natural gas
their (LNG) based plants.
policies Meanwhile, a total of five
and do LNG-based projects with a
not want capacity of 8,750
5 https:// megawatts of electricity
www.thed are in the pipeline,
ailystar.ne sponsored by local and
t/opinion/ international groups.
news/why
Currently, the government
-are-we-
is importing 1000 mmcf
still-
depending (million cubic feet) LNG
-coal- per day through two
1919329 floating storage units.
2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
However sh are limited land
, availability and the
Banglade meteorological conditions
sh plans of the land not being
to suitable for hydro
increase electricity generation.
its LNG Estimated maximum
import renewable energy
capacity potential in Bangladesh is
to 2,000 up to 3,700MW, according
mmcf gas to energy specialists. The
per day government planned to
by 2030. meet 10% of the total
electricity generation
Renewab from Renewable Energy
le energy sources by 2020.
can be a However, actual scenario
better as on day is far away from
alternati the plan as most of the
ve for plants failed to complete
long their installation within
term the stipulated timeframe.
power The Bangladesh power
generati sector master plan
on, envisages that around
however 35% of the country’s
, so far power generation will be
limited procured from renewable
success energy sources or clean
has been power imports by 2041.
seen: For instance, some of the
Presently solar projects under
, implementation include a
Banglade 200 MW Solar Park in
sh Tekhnaf, 500 MW Solar
generate Power energy project in
s around Feni, 100MW Solar Photo
365MW Voltaic based
of The rate at which BPDB
purchases power from the
electricit
generating entities is termed
y from as Bulk or Wholesale Tariff.
renewabl Grid-Connected Power
e energy Generation Plant which is
sources. also in Feni, 200MW Grid-
Banglade tied Solar PV Power Plant
sh has an in Latshal, 60MW and
enormou 30MW windmill energy
s project in Cox’s Bazar and
potential a 1 MW garbage based
for solar power plant in Keraniganj
and wind and other areas.
capacity. Currently, there are
However several other renewable
, prime energy development
constrain projects running in
ts for Bangladesh. If all the
renewabl projects progress in
e energy accordance with their
in plan, there will be
Banglade mentionable electricity
2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
generati another 60 MW power is
on being imported from
contribu same point from July 2017
tion from and another 500 MW is
the imported by bohorampur-
expansio bheramara line from
n into September, 2018. BPDB
renewabl Planned to import 340
e energy. MW power from Tripura
As a part by 2021. Another 1496
of the MW electricity plan to
long import from Jharkhand,
term India by 2022.
energy
generati
on plan, Present tariff
the
governm
structure in the
ent also electricity
plans to generation sector
generate
Tariff structure in
4,000
Bangladesh power sector
MW
can be classified:
electricit
y from i. Bulk
Nuclear or
Energy whole
Source. sale
tariff-
Power
the
import:
rate
Banglade
at
sh-India
which
Regional
BPDB
Grid first
purch
Intercon
ases
nection
power
project
from
has
the
already
gener
been
ating
establish
entitie
ed and
s;
now
Banglade ii. Wheel
sh ing
imports charg
1,160 es
MW paid
power to
through PGCB;
this line. and
100 MW iii. Retail
power is tariffs
being -the
imported rate
Tripura, at
India to which
Cumilla the
from distrib
2016, ution
2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
co consumer EPZs. The
mpPower Cell as the GOB
aniagent indicates which
es organization will be the
sellpower purchaser at the
to time of issuance of
conRequest for Proposal
su (RFP). Electricity
megeneration technology,
rs. cost structure and tariff
Thevaries based on the types
Bulof fuel used. The rate at
k orwhich BPDB purchases
whpower from the
olegenerating entities is
sal termed as Bulk or
e Wholesale Tariff. The Bulk
tarior Wholesale Tariff varies
ff based on the power plant
varitypes and fuel used. The
es tariff structure consists of
bastwo parts:
ed 1. Capacity
O based power generation on Payment:
costly compared to that of This covers
generation thedebt service, return on
ugh unit price of gas based
ants is the lowest, it enjoys
po equity, fixed operation
st margin werand maintenance cost,
period is the lowest for
el) and HFO based power plainsurance and other fixed
nt costs. The capacity
es from power sector enjoy
argin than companies from typpayment is further
tors
es remain debt dependent es divided into an escalating
nitiating power plant andand non-escalating
es from power sector are fuelportions. The capacity
increasingly focused on
usepayment is linked to a
dend
d. certain level of availability
Tariff for of the power plant which
Bulk is made known to the
Purchase bidders at the time of
of Power issuance of RFP. The
at companies will be entitled
Busbar to capacity payments
The even if the government
power doesn’t buy electricity
produce from them. The capacity
d by the payment is a sort of
Independ penalty, which the BPDB
ent is bound to pay to the
Power power plant owners, if
Producer the government fails to
(IPP) is purchase a certain portion
purchase of the electricity readily
d (as per available
Power 2. Energy
Purchase Payment: This covers the
Agreeme variable costs of
nt) by operation and
BPDB/DE maintenance, including
SA/REB fuel. The payment are
or any further divided into fuel
large component which are a
2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
pass- In the
through solici
and a ted
non-fuel bids,
compon the
ent bidde
which rs
escalates offer
. In case bulk
of pass- powe
through r
energy tariff
payment base
agreeme d on
nts- the
respectiv capa
e city
company paym
procures ent
required and
fuel oil ener
for its gy
plants on paym
their ent
own and and
bills to also
BPDB for provi
liquid de
fuel the
payment equiv
. It is alent
mention leveli
able zed
here tariff
that, over
there is the
no contr
impact act
of price perio
fluctuati d,
on in base
internati d on
onal oil disco
market unt
on the rate,
profitabil tariff
ity of profil
private e
power restri
generati ction
on and
compani plant
es as its facto
costs are r to
structure be
d as a speci
pass fied
through durin
item. g the
solici

2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
tation of bids. The and
evaluation will be wind
based on the criteria resou
to be provided in the rces,
RFP. as
The sponsors of well
private power project as a
are required to lack
provide year wise of
tariff profile over the avail
contract period in a able
manner that matches land
their annual debt for
service requirements. the
devel
The tariff structure for opm
Diesel/ HFO is higher ent
while Hydro and Gas of
based power projects solar
supplies low cost proje
energy: cts.
heavily dependent on Curre
natural gas to its ntly
energy requirements
due to limited hydro
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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INTERRUPTION OF NATIONAL GRID FOR FY 2018 & FY 2019
S.N Type of Fault Total Number of Faults Total Duration (Hours:

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FY FY FY FY FY FY
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019
1 Partial Power failure due to trouble in generation 102 227 171 18:06 1:56 0:53
2 Partial Power failure due to trouble in grid S/S Equipment 10 46 55 12:47 64:18 45:43
3 Partial Power failure due to fault in transmission line 4 7 17 07:33 10:13 31:37
4 Partial Power failure due to the lightning on transmission 0 0 0 00:00 00:00 00:00
line/Thunder Storm
5 Partial Grid failure 1 7 2 00:41 6:19 01:14
6 Total Grid failure 0 0 0 00:00 00:00 00:00
Total 117 287 245 39:07 82:46 79:27
Source: BPDB Annual Report 2018-19

2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH

2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
er Capacity Large number of power plants are sitting
idle or generating almost half
of their capacity. Bangladesh
Power Development Board
(BPDB) needs
[in billion BDT)
to pay a minimum capacity payment
to individual power producers for
100.00 the unutilized/ underutilized
capacities. As almost half of our
generation
89.29
capacity remains unused
90.00
(reserved), government has to pay a
62.41
54.90 53.76 56.00
50.01 47.14 50.43
23.79
17.90
capacity
charge to all those power plants to
80.00
keep them on board as per the

power
purchase agreement. Huge capacity
70.00
payments for excess (reserve)

capacity60.00
necessitating the
government to provide subsidies to
the
Bangladesh Power Development
50.00
40.00
Board (BPDB) to cover its mounting

financial losses. For instance, the
30.00
government has spent BDT 505

billion
on paying capacity charges in last
20.00
decade (FY10 to FY19)11. Amount of

overcapacity stood at 8989 MW,
10.00
which is 56% of the total capacity, as

on 08 August 2020. The capacity
0.00
payment in fiscal year 2018-19

jumped
Y17 FY18 FY19 to BDT89.23 billion (US$1.1 billion)
against BDT63.41 billion in
FY201718 which was only
BDT17.90 billion in FY2009-10. This
is greater than
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
m
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
a
n
t
s
(
Q Utility wise Bulk Energy Sales by BPDB As Single Buyer (In
R GWh)
P Year Sales Quantity
P (GWh)
s
2004-05 20,398
)
2005-06 21,961
a 2006-07 22,061
c
2007-08 23,433
c
o 2008-09 24,757
2009-10 26,626
2010-11 28,627
2018-19 against $4.5
billion in fiscal 2017 -18. 2011-12 32,443
The government subsidy 2012-13 35,466
to the BPDB rose to BDT 2013-14 39,256
80 billion or $936 million
in FY2018 -19 which was 2014-15 42,616
BDT45 billion or $530 2015-16 48,895
million in the previous 2016-17 53,916
2017-18 59,221
2018-19 66,547
10
11
http://www.dailyindustry.news/load-shedding-even-double-capacity
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
r
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
u
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
l
o
a
n
.
Generation cost of BPDB's own plant

and Electricity purchase from other
sources
Particulars Amount Cost Amount Cost Increase/
(Crore Tk.) (Tk/KWh) (Crore Tk.)2 (Tk/KWh)3 (Decrease)
BPDB's Generation 9,431.39 6.44 7,648.06 4.58 -
18.91
%
Purchase from IPP 10,410.59 5.72 15,748.50 7.42 51.27
%
Purchase from Rental 6,281.73 8.77 5,013.62 8.4 -
20.19
%
Purchase from Public Plant 7,289.54 4.52 6,839.30 3.82 -
6.18
%
Purchase from India 2,812.58 5.87 3,702.63 5.46 31.65
%
Interest on budgetary support 1,188.31 0.2 1,294.80 0.19 8.96%
Provision for Maintenance & Development fund 1,162.67 0.19 998.20 0.15 -
14.15
%
Total 38,576.81 6.33 41,245.11 6.01 6.92%
Energy Sales 29,741.16 33,064.03 11.17
%
g
Operating income and operatin expe nses of BPDB
Head of Accounts FY 2017-2018 FY 2018-2019 Growt
(in BDT mn) h
Operating Revenue (1) 306,044.10 345,068.70 12.75
%
Sale of Electricity 297,411.60 330,640.30 11.17
%
Other Operating Revenue 8632.6 14,428.40 67.14
%
Operating Expenses (2) 368,118.90 395,533.00 7.45
%
Fuel Cost 61,220.00 42,493.50 -
30.59%
Generation Expenses (Excluding fuel cost) 24,063.30 24,423.90 1.50
%
Electricity purchase from IPP 104,105.90 157,485.00 51.27
%
Electricity purchase from RENTAL 62,817.30 50,136.20 -
20.19%
Electricity purchase from Public Plant 72,895.40 68,393.00 -
6.18%
2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
Electricity purchase from India 28,125.80 37,026.30 31.65

%
Wheeling Charge to PGCB 1829.2 2150.2 17.55
%
Distribution Expenses 9235.3 9475.1 2.60
%
General & Administrative Expenses 3826.8 3949.7 3.21
%
Operating Profit/(Loss) = (1-2) -62,074.70 -50,464.30 -
18.70%
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
Annex
ure 1:
List of
the
powe
r
gener
ation
plants
in
Bangl
adesh
Sl Name of the Power Station Fuel Producer Present Plants status/

. Installed Capacity remarks
N Capacity
o.
MW MW

2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
1 Ghorasal TPP (Unit-1&2) Gas PDB 110 85 Unit-2 Under
maint
Ghorasal Repowered CCPP Unit-3 Gas PDB 210 170 Under
maint
Ghorasal Repowered CCPP Unit-4 Gas PDB 210 180 Gas
shortage
Ghorasal TPP Unit-5 Gas PDB 210 190 Gas
shortage
2 Ghorasal 365 MW CCPP Unit-7 Gas PDB 365 365 Under
maint.
3 Ghorashal 78.5 MW PP(MAX) Gas QRPP 78 78 Gas
shortage
4 Ghorashal 108MW PP (Regent) Gas IPP 108 108 Gas
shortage
5 Haripur GTPP Gas SBU, PDB 32 20 Under
maint.
6 Haripur 412 MW CCPP Gas EGCB 412 412 DCT
7 Haripur 360MW CCPP(HPL) Gas IPP 360 360
8 Meghnaghat 450 MW CCPP(MPL) Gas IPP 450 450
9 Meghnaghat 100 MW(IEL) HFO QRPP 100 100
10 Meghnaghat CCPP(Summit) Gas IPP 305 305 GT-1 S/D g

for a
shortage s
11 Madanganj 102 PP(Summit) HFO QRPP 102 100
12 Madanganj-55 MW PP(Summit) HFO (IPP) 55 55
13 Keraniganj 100 MW PP (Powerpac) HFO QRPP 100 100
14 Narshingdi 22 MW PP (Doreen) Gas SIPP, REB 22 22
15 210 MW Siddhirgonj TPP Gas PDB 210 115 Under

maint.
16 Siddhirgonj 2*120 MW GTPP Gas EGCB 210 210 Gas
shortage
17 Siddhirganj 100 PP(Dutch Bangla) HFO QRPP 100 100
18 Siddhirganj 335 MW CCPP Gas EGCB 335 335
19 Gagnagar 102 MW PP (Digital HFO IPP 102 102

Power)
20 Katpotti 52 MW PP (Sinha) HFO IPP 51 51 Fuel
shortage
21 Kamalaghat 54 MW PP(Banco HFO IPP 54 54
Energy)
22 Kodda 150MW PP HFO BPDB-RPCL 149 149
23 Manikganj 55 MW PP (Northern) HFO IPP 55 55
24 Nababganj 55 MW PP (Southern power ) HFO IPP 55 55
25 Bosila 108MW PP(CLC) HFO IPP 108 108 Fuel

Shortage.
26 Summit Gas SIPP,REB 80 80 Engine
Power,(Madhabdi+Ashulia) problem
27 Maona 33 MW PP(Summit) Gas SIPP,REB 33 33
28 Rupganj 33 MW PP(Summit) Gas SIPP,REB 33 33
29 Gazipur 52 MW PP HFO IPP 52 52
30 Tongi 80 MW GTPP Gas PDB 105 105 Gas

2020
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EQUITY RESEARCH
shortage
31 Kodda 300 MW PP Unit-2 (Summit) HFO IPP 300 300
32 Keranigonj 300 MW PP (APR) HSD IPP 300 300
33 Bramhangoan 100 MW PP HSD IPP 100 100

(Aggreko)
34 Aurahati 100MW PP (Aggreko) HSD IPP 100 100
35 Kodda 149 MW PP Unit-1 (Summit) HFO IPP 149 149 Engine

problem
36 Gazipur 100 MW PP HFO RPCL 105 105
37 Meghnaghat 104 MW PP (OPCL) HFO IPP 104 104
Dhaka area Total 6119 5895
38 Chattogram TPP-1 Gas PDB 210 180 Gas

shortage
Chattogram TPP-2 Gas PDB 210 180 Gas
shortage
39 Raozan 25 MW PP HFO IPP 25 25
40 Teknaf 20MW PP (Solartech) Solar Teknaf 20 20

Solartech
Energy Ltd.
41 Patenga 50MW PP (Baraka) HFO IPP 50 50
42 Karnaphuli Hydro PP Unit-1,2,3,4, 5 Hydro PDB 230 230 Low water

level
43 Gas/ PDB 225 225 ST under
HS D maint.
Sikalbaha 225MW CCPP
44 Sikalbaha Peaking GT Gas/ PDB 150 150 Under

HS D maint.
45 Sikalbaha 105 MW PP (Baraka HFO IPP 105 105
Sikalbaha)
46 Hathazari 100 MW peaking PP HFO PDB 98 98 Under
maint.
47 Dohazari -Kalaish 100 MW Peaking HFO PDB 102 102
48 Juldah 100 MW Unit-1 (Acorn) HFO QRPP 100 100
49 Juldah 100 MW PP Unit-3 (Acorn) HFO IPP 100 100
50 Barabkunda 22 MW PP (Regent) Gas SIPP, PDB 22 22

* Malancha, Ctg. EPZ (United) Gas 0
2020
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
51 Chattogram 108 MW PP (ECPV) HFO IPP 108 108 Engine problem
52 Kaptai 7 MW Solar PP Solar PDB 7 7
53 Anwara 300 MW PP (United) HFO IPP 300 300
54 Jodiac Power HFO IPP 54 54
55 Karnaphuli Power Ltd. HFO IPP 110 110
56 Juldah unit-2 (Acorn) HFO IPP 100 100
Chattogram area Total 2326 2266
57 Ashuganj TPP Unit- 3 Gas APSCL 150 135 Gas Shortage
Ashuganj TPP Unit- 4 Gas APSCL 150 129 Gas shortage
Ashuganj TPP Unit- 5 Gas APSCL 150 134 Gas shortage
58 Ashuganj 225 MW CCPP Gas APSCL 221 221
59 Ashuganj 450 MW CCPP(North) Gas APSCL 360 360
60 Ashuganj 450 MW CCPP(South) Gas APSCL 360 360
61 Ashuganj 50 MW PP Gas APSCL 53 45 Gas shortage
62 Ashuganj 55 MW PP (Precision) Gas RPP 55 55 Gas shortage
63 Ashuganj 195MW PP (APSCL- Gas IPP 195 195 Gas shortage
United)
64 Ashuganj 51 MW PP (Midland) Gas IPP 51 51
65 Ashuganj 150MW PP (Midland) HFO IPP 150 150
66 Titas 50 MW Peaking PP HFO PDB 52 52
67 Chandpur 150 MW CCPP Gas PDB 163 163 ST under shut
down
68 Chandpur 200MW (Desh energy) HFO IPP 200 200
69 Feni 22MW PP (Doreen) Gas SIPP, PDB 22 22
70 Feni 11 MW PP (Doreen) Gas SIPP, REB 11 11
** Impoprt (Tripura) Imported power 160 160
71 Jangalia 33MW PP (Summit) Gas SIPP, PDB 33 33
72 Jangalia 52 MW PP (Lakdanavi) HFO IPP 52 52 Engine problem
73 Cumilla 25 MW PP (Summit) Gas SIPP, PDB 25 25 Engine problem
74 Daudkandi 200 MW PP (B.Trac ) HSD IPP 200 200
75 Feni Lanka Power HFO IPP 114 114
76 Chowmuhani 113 MW HFO IPP 113 113
Cumilla Area Total 3040 2980
77 RPCL 210MW CCPP Gas IPP 210 202 Gas shortage
78 Tangail 22 MW PP (Doreen) Gas SIPP, PDB 22 22
79 Jamalpur 95 MW PP(Powerpac) HFO IPP 95 95 Engine problem
80 Sarishabari 3 MW Solar Plant Solar IPP 3 3
81 Mymensingh 200 MW PP (United) HFO IPP 200 200
82 Jamalpur 115 MW PP (United) HFO IPP 115 115
Mymensingh Area Total 645 637
83 Fenchugonj CCPP Phase-1 Gas PDB 97 70
84 Fenchugonj CCPP Phase-2 Gas PDB 104 90 Unit-4 under
shut down
85 Kushiara 163 MW CCPP (KP) Gas IPP 163 163
86 Shajibazar 330 MW CCPP Gas PDB 330 330 Engine problem
87 Fenchugonj 51 MW PP Gas RPP 51 51
(Barakatullah)
88 Fenchuganj 44MW (Energyprima) Gas RPP 44 44
89 Hobiganj 11MW PP Cofidence-E Gas SIPP, REB 11 11
90 Shahjibazar GTPP Unit- 8 & 9 Gas PDB 70 66
91 Shahjibazar 86MW PP (Shahjibazar) Gas RPP 86 86
92 Sylhet 225 MW CCPP Gas PDB 231 231 Machine
problem
93 Sylhet 20 MW GTPP Gas PDB 20 20
94 Sylhet 50MW PP (EPL) Gas RPP 50 50 Contract Expired
95 Shahjahanulla 25 MW PP Gas SIPP, REB 25 25
96 Bibiana-II 341 MW CCPP (Summit) Gas IPP 341 341
97 Bibiyana-III 400 MW CCPP Gas PDB 400 400 Under
maintenance
98 Sylhet 10MW PP (Desh) Gas RPP 10 10
Bibiyana South 400 MW Gas PDB 0 0

2020
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EQUITY RESEARCH
2033 1988
Sylhet Area Total
99 Bheramara GTPP Unit-3 HSD PDB 20 16

** Bheramara (HVDC ) 0 Imported power 1000 1000
100 Khulna 115 PP MW (KPCL-2) HFO QRPP 115 115
101 Faridpur 50 MW Peaking PP HFO PDB 54 54
102 Khulna 225 MW CCPP HSD NWPGCL 230 230
103 Gopalganj 100 MW Peaking PP HFO PDB 109 109
104 Bheramara 410 MW CCPP Gas NWPGCL 410 410
105 Noapara 40 MW PP (Khanjahan Ali) HFO QRPP 40 40
10 Noapara 100 MW PP (Bangla Trac) HSD IPP 100 100
6
10 Rupsha 105 MW PP (Orion rupsha) HFO IPP 105 105
7
10 Madhumati 100 MW PP HFO IPP 105 105
8
Khulna Area Total 2288 2284
10 Barisal 110 MW PP (Summit ) HFO IPP 110 110
9
11 Bhola 33 MW PP (Venture) Gas RPP 33 33
0
11 Bhola 225 MW CCPP Gas PDB 194 194 GT-2 & ST Under
1 maint.
11 Bhola 95 MW PP (Aggreko) Gas QRPP 95 95 Engine
2 problem
11 Payra 1320 MW Coal BCPCL 622 622 Unit-2 Un
3 Test. it-
under S/D 1
Barisal Area Total 1054 1054
1 Baghabari 71 MW GTPP Gas PDB 71 71 Gas

1 shortage
4
Baghabari 100 MW GTPP Gas PDB 100 100 Gas
shortage
11 Baghabari 50 MW Peaking PP HFO PDB 52 52
5
11 Bera 70 MW Peaking PP HFO PDB 71 71
6
11 Amnura 50 MW PP(Sinha) HFO QRPP 50 50 Fuel
7 shortage.
11 Katakhali 50 MW PP (Northern) HFO QRPP 50 50
8
11 Katakhali 50 MW Peaking PP HFO PDB 50 50
9
2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
12 Sirajgonj 225MW CCPP Unit-1 Gas/ NWPGCL 210 210 Gas
0 HS D shortage
12 Sirajgonj 225MW CCPP Unit-2 Gas/ NWPGCL 220 220 FGMO
1 HS D
12 Sirajgonj 225MW CCPP Unit-3 Gas/ NWPGCL 220 220 FGMO
2 HS D
12 Sirajgonj 400 MW CCPP Unit-4 Gas/ SNWPGCL 414 414 FGMO
3 HS D
12 Santahar 50 MW Peaking PP HFO PDB 50 50
4
12 Bogra 22 MW PP (GBB) Gas RPP 22 22
5
12 Bogura 20 MW PP (Energyprima) Gas RPP 20 10
6
12 Ullapara 11 MW PP (Summit) Gas SIPP, REB 11 11
7
12 Natore 52 MW PP (Rajlanka) HFO IPP 52 52 Engine
8 problem
12 Chapainawabganj 100 MW Peaking PP HFO PDB 104 104
9
13 Baghabari 200 MW PP (Paramount) HSD IPP 200 200
0
13 Bagura 113 MW PP (Confidence)-2 HFO IPP 113 113
1
13 Confidence Power Bogura Unit-1 113 MW HFO IPP 113 113
2
Rajshahi Area Total 2193 2183
13 Barapukuria TPP Unit-1 Coal PDB 125 85 Coal

3 Shortage.
Barapukuria TPP Unit-2 Coal PDB 125 85 Coal
Shortage.
1 Barapukuria 275 MW TPP Unit-3 Coal PDB 274 274 Coal
3 Shortage.
4
13 Rangpur 20 MW GTPP HSD PDB 20 20 Under
5 maint.
13 Saidpur 20 MW GTPP HSD PDB 20 20 Engine
6 problem
13 Rangpur 113 MW PP (Confidence) HFO IPP 113 113
7
13 Sympa Solar Power 8MW Solar IPP 8 8
8
Rangpur Area Total 685 605
Total 20383 19892

2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
B
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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of
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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p
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
s
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
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2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
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a

2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH

2020
report.
Page 10 of 24
EQUITY RESEARCH
- (Part-1)
Bangladesh power sector: an appraisal from a multi dimensional perspective
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Bangladesh power sector: an appraisal from a multi dimensional perspective
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Bangladesh Power Sector An Appraisal From A Multi Dimensional Perspective

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ABSTRACT

Power & Energy is one of the prime mover of economic growth.

Growing demand for power indicates promising industry prospect, however,

Power Consumption Pattern of the Country Area-wise Electricity Demand (2018-19)

escalated over the last decade eying

Electricity generation capacity of the

Year Wise Per Capita Generation

Source: BPDB Annual Report (2018-19)

Consumption Demand (base-

for power generation was Natural gas, which is now

HFO Imported Renewable %

Though public sector accounts for

BCPCL (JV of NWPGCL & CMC,

15 YR. Rental Investment Opportunity in Bangladesh Power Generation Sector

institutions (NBFIs), international financial institutions (debt or equity investments), export

Generation Transmission Distribution Generation Transmission Distribution

Source: PSMP 2016 (Revisiting)- Published in November 2018

Some key terminologies of the private power generation sector are:

Rental & Quick Rental Power Plants (RPP or QRPP):

Captive Power Plants (CPP):

Short-term Project Intermediate term Project Long Term Project

Source: Revisiting PSMP 2016 (Published in November 2018)

New Contact Sign

Plant Type No. of Power Plant Projects Installed Capacity Already

Source: Power System Master Plan 201

Actual progress of the coal based plant

Bangladesh power sector: An appraisal from a multi-dimensional Public

Planned & Under-construction Coal Based Mega Plants

Name Capacity Executing Agency Completion

Long term Due to unwillingness of

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September

INTERRUPTION OF NATIONAL GRID FOR FY 2018 & FY 2019

S.N Type of Fault Total Number of Faults Total Duration (Hours:

This research report is a property of EBL Securities Ltd. | Bangladesh | 03 September