Chapter 05 - A Survey of Probability Concepts

Chapter 5
A Survey of Probability Concepts
1. Outcome 1 2
1 A A
2 A F
3 F A
4 F F (LO 1)

2. Outcome 1 2
1 A A
2 A R
3 A S
4 R A
5 R R
6 R S
7 S A
8 S R
9 S S (LO 1)

3. a. 0.176 found by 6/34

b. Empirical (LO 2)

4. a. 0.40, found by 2/5

b. Classical (LO 2)

5. a. Empirical
b. Classical
c. Classical
d. Empirical, based on seismological data. (LO 2)

6. a. Outcome 1st 2nd

1 M M
2 M F
3 F F
4 F M
b. Classical (LO 2)

7. a. The survey of 40 people about environmental issues

b. 26 or more, respond yes for example
c. 0.25 found by 10/40
d. Empirical
e. The events are not equally likely but they are mutually exclusive (LO 2)

8. a. Recording the number of violations

b. at least one violation, for example
c. 0.009, found by 18/2000
d. Empirical (LO 2)

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Chapter 05 - A Survey of Probability Concepts

9. a. Answers will vary, here are some possibilities: 123, 124, 125, 999
3
1
b.  
 10 
c. Classical (LO 2)

10. a. Answers will vary, value goes up 1/16, goes up 1/8, goes down 1
b. Answer depends upon when the data are collected
c. Empirical (LO 2)

11. P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) (LO 3)

= 0.30 + 0.20
= 0.50
P(neither) =1 − 0.50 = 0.50

12. P(X or Y) = P(X) + P(Y) (LO 3)

= 0.05 + 0.02
= 0.07
P(neither) =1 − 0.07 = 0.93

13. a. 0.51 found by 102/200

b. 0.49 found by 61/200 + 37/200 = 0.305 + 0.185 Special rule of addition (LO 3)

14. a. 80%, found by 50% + 30%

b. 80%, found by 100% – 20% (LO 3)

15. 0.75, found by 0.25 + 0.50 (LO 3)

16. yes, no (LO 3)

17. P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B) (LO 4)

= 0.30 + 0.20 − 0.15
= 0.35

18. P(X or Y) = P(X) + P(Y) − P(X and Y) (LO 4)

= 0.55 + 0.35 − 0.20
= 0.70

19. When two events are mutually exclusive it means that if one occurs the other event cannot
occur. Therefore, the probability of their joint occurrence is zero. (LO 4)

20. P(H or M) = P(H) + P(M) − P(H and M) (LO 4)

= 0.60 + 0.70 − 0.50
= 0.80

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Chapter 05 - A Survey of Probability Concepts

21. a. 0.2
b. 0.3
c. No, because a store could have both.
d. Joint probability
e. 0.9, found by 1.0 – 0.1 (LO 4)

22. a. 0.55, found by 0.50 + 0.40 – 0.35

b. Joint probability
c. No, a vacationer can visit both attractions (LO 4)

23. P(A and B) = P(A)  P(B|A) (LO 6)

= 0.40  0.30.
= 0.12

24. P(X1 and Y2 ) = P(X1 )  P(Y2 |X1 ) (LO 6)

= 0.75  0.40
= 0.30

25. 0.90, found by (0.80 + 0.60) – 0.50

0.10, found by (1 – 0.90) (LO 4)

26. 5%, found by (1 – 0.95) (LO 5)

27. a. P(A1) = 3/10 = 0.30

b. P(B1|A2) = 1/3 = 0.33
c. P(B2 and A3) = 1/10 = 0.10 (LO 7)

28. a. 6/380 or 0.01579, found by 3/20 × 2/19

b. 272/380 or 0.7158, found by 17/20 × 16/19 (LO 5)

29. a. A contingency table

b. 0.27, found by 300/500  135  300
c. A tree diagram would appear as: (LO 7)

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Chapter 05 - A Survey of Probability Concepts

30. Outcome A B C Outcome A B C Outcome A B C

1 U U U✓ 10 D U U✓ 19 S U U✓
2 U U D✓ 11 D U D 20 S U D
3 U U S✓ 12 D U S 21 S U S
4 U D U✓ 13 D D U 22 S D U
5 U D D 14 D D D 23 S D D
6 U D S 15 D D S 24 S D S
7 U S U✓ 16 D S U 25 S S U
8 U S D 17 D S D 26 S S D
9 U S S 18 D S S 27 S S S
U = Stock is up D = Stock is down S = Stock is same
✓indicates the criteria that two stocks went up is met.
2 of the stocks went up on seven of the 27 outcomes P(A) = 7/27 = 0.259. (LO 5)

31. a. Contingency table.

b. 0.8421, found by 32/38.
c. Shorter distances have a higher success rate.
d. 0.8947, found by (12 + 32 – 10)/38.
e. 0.0263, found by 1/38.
3
1
32. a.   = 0.0029
7
 7  6  5 
b.     = 0.612
 7  7  7 
3
6
c.   = 0.630 (LO 5)
7

33. a. 78,960,960
b. 840, found by (7)(6)(5)(4). That is 7!/3!
c. 10, found by 5!/3!2! (LO 9)

34. a. 6,840
b. 504
c. 21 (LO 9)

35. 210, found by (10)(9)(8)(7)/(4)(3)(2) (LO 9)

36. 10,000, found by (10)4 (LO 9)

37. 120, found by 5! (LO 9)

15  14  13  12  11
38. 3003, found by C10 = (LO 9)
5 4  3 2
15

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Chapter 05 - A Survey of Probability Concepts

39. 10,897,286,400 found by P = 15  14  13  12  11  10  9  8  7  6 (LO 9)

15 10

40. 210 (LO 9)

41. a. Asking teenagers their reactions to a newly developed soft drink.

b. Answers will vary, one possibility is more than half of the respondents like it. (LO 1)

42. Empirical (LO 2)

43. Subjective (LO 2)

44. a. 0.10, found by 50/500

b. Yes, mutually exclusive, because a given tip cannot fall in more than one category.
c. 1.00
d. 0.60, found by 300/500
e. 0.90, found by 450/500 or 1 – (50/500) (LO 3)

4 2 2
45. a. , found by 
9 3 3
3 3 2 1
b. , because  = (LO 5)
4 4 3 2

46. a. 4/52, or 0.077

b. 3/51, or 0.059
c. 0.0045, found by (4/52)(3/51) (LO 5)

47. a. 0.8145, found by (0.95)4

b. Special rule of multiplication
c. P(A and B and C and D) = P(A) x P(B) x P(C) x P(D) (LO 5)

48. a. Venn diagram

b. Complement rule
c. 1 (LO 3)

49. a. 0.08, found by 0.80 x 0.10

b. No, because if you know a person’s gender it changes the probability they attended
college.
c.
0.90
0.80 0.80 x 0.90 = 0.72
0.10
0.80 x 0.10 = 0.080
0.78
0.20 x 0.78 = 0.156
0.20
0.22 0.20 x 0.22 = 0.044

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Chapter 05 - A Survey of Probability Concepts

d. Yes, because all the possible outcomes are shown on the tree diagram. (LO 5)

50. a. 0.6561 found by (0.9)(0.9)(0.9)(0.9)

b. 0.0001 found by (0.1)(0.1)(0.1)(0.1)
c. 0.3439 found by 1 − 0.6561 (LO 5)

51. a. 0.57 found by 57/100

b. 0.97 found by (57/100) + (40/100)
c. Yes, because an employee cannot be both.
d. 0.03 found by 1 − 0.97 (LO 4)

52. a. empirical
b. 0.046, found by (0.359)3
c. 0.263, found by (1 – 0.359)3
d. 0.737, found by (1 – 0.263) (LO 5)

53. a. 1/2, found by (2/3)(3/4)

b. 1/12, found by (1/3)(1/4)
c. 11/12, found by 1 – 1/12 (LO 5)

54. a. 1/9 found by (1/3)(1/3)

b. 1/27, found by (1/3)(1/3)(1/3)
c. 2/9, found by (2/3)(1/3) (LO 5)

55. a. 0.9039 found by (0.98)5

b. 0.0961 found by 1 – 0.9039 (LO 5)

56. a. 0.064 found by (0.4)3

b. 0.216 found by (0.6)3
c. 0.784 found by 1 – 0.216
d. independent (LO 5)

57. a. 0.0333 found by (4/10)(3/9)(2/8)

b. 0.1667 found by (6/10)(5/9)(4/8)
c. 0.8333 found by 1 – 0.1667
d. dependent (LO 6)

58. a. 0.50, found by 10/20

b. 0.2368, found by (10/20)(9/19)
c. 0.1053, found by (10/20)(9/18)(8/18)
d. 0.7158, found by (17/20)(16/19) (LO 6)

59. a. 0.3818, found by (9/12)(8/11)(7/10)

b. 0.6182, found by 1 – 0.3818 (LO 6)

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Chapter 05 - A Survey of Probability Concepts

60. a. 0.30, found by 6/20

b. 0.45, found by (6 + 7 – 4)/20
c. 0.5714, found by 4/7
d. 0.0789, found by (6/20)(5/19) (LO 7)

61. a. 0.51, found by 0.60(0.85)

b. 0.09, found by 0.60(0.15) (LO 6)

62. 0.2373, found by (¾)5 (LO 6)

63. a. 0.143, found by 1 – (857/1000)

b. 0.2168, found by 31/143 (LO 4)

64. a. 0.42
b. 0.70(0.40) = 0.28
c. 0.88 (LO 5)

65. a. P(P or D) =(1/50)(9/10) + (49/50)(1/10) = 0.116

b. P(No) = (49/50)(9/10) = 0.882
c. P(No on 3) = (0.882)3 = 0.686
d. P(at least one prize) = 1 – 0.686 = 0.314 (LO 5)

66. a. (10)(9)(8) = 720

b. 0.00139, found by 1/720
c. 0.99583, found by 1 – 3/720 (LO 5)

67. Yes, 256 is found by 28 (LO 9)

68. 0.70, found by = P(A) + P(B) − P(A and B) (LO 4)

= 0.60 + 0.40 − 0.30
= 0.70

69. 0.9744, found by 1 – (0.40)4 (LO 6)

70. 15, found by 5 × 3 (LO 9)

71. a. 0.185, found by (0.15)(0.95) + (0.05)(0.85)

b. 0.0075, found by (0.15)(0.05) (LO 5)

72. 17,576,000 found by (26)(26)(26)(10)(10)(10) (LO 9)

73. a. P(F and > 60) = 0.25, found by solving with the general rule of multiplication:
P(F)  P(>60|F) = (0.50)(0.50)
b. 0
c. 0.3333, found by 1/3 (LO 5)

74. a. 0.333, found by (6/10)(5/9)

b. 0.9286, found by 1 – [(6/10)(5/9)(4/8)(3/7)]
c. dependent (LO 5)

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Chapter 05 - A Survey of Probability Concepts

75. 456,976 found by 264 (LO 9)

24!
76. a. 2024, found by C3 =
3!(24 − 3)!
24

b. 0.125, found by 1 – [(23/24)(22/23)(21/22)] (LO 6)

77. 0.512, found by (0.8)3 (LO 5)

78. 0.999875, found by 1 – (0.05)3 (LO 5)

79. 0.525, found by 1 – (0.78)3 (LO 5)

80. a. Using MINITAB

Rows: Pool Column: Township
1 2 3 4 5 All
0 9 8 7 11 3 38
1 6 12 18 18 13 67
All 15 20 25 29 16 105
1. P(1 or Pool) = 15/105 + 38/105 – 9/105 = 0.4190
2. P(Pool|3) = 7/25 = 0.28
3. P(3 and Pool) = 7/105 = 0.0667
b. Using MINITAB
Rows: Garage Column: Township
1 2 3 4 5 All
0 6 5 10 9 4 34
1 9 15 15 20 12 71
All 15 20 25 29 16 105
1. P(G) = 71/105 = 0.6762
2. P(NG|5) = 4/16 = 0.25
3. P(G and 3) = 15/105 = 0.1429
4. P(NG or 2) = 34/105 + 20/105 – 5/105 = 49/105 = 0.4667 (LO 7)

81. a. Winning Low Moderate High

Season Attendance Attendance Attendance Total
No 6 5 3 14
Yes 3 7 6 16
Total 9 12 9 30

1. 0.5333 found by 16/30

2. 0.6333 found by 16/30 + 9/30 − 6/30 = 19/30
3. 0.6667 found by 6/9
4. 0.1000 found by 3/30
b. Losing Winning
Season Season Total
New 7 8 15
Old 7 8 15
Total 14 16 30

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Chapter 05 - A Survey of Probability Concepts

1. 0.5333 found by 16/30

2. 0.2667 found by 8/30
3. 0.7667 found by 16/30 + 15/30 − 8/30 (LO 7)

82.
Age Group
Maintenance New Medium Old Total
Low 13 26 1 40
High 5 21 14 40
Total 18 47 15 80

a. 22.5% are new, found by 18/80.

b. 72.22% of new buses have low maintenance, found by 13/18.
c. 93.33% of old buses have high maintenance, found by 14/15.
d. Maintenance cost and age are related. 72.22% of new and only 6.67% of old buses
have low maintenance.

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