IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation Vol. 25 No.

5, October 1990 923

Models for Insulation Aging under

Electrical and Thermal Multistress

P. Cygan and J. R. Laghari

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,
State University of New York, Buffalo NY

ABSTRACT
A review of the methods and models used in lifetime studies of
solid insulators under single and multiple stress conditions is
presented. The statistical methods used with this type of data
are briefly described. These statistical methods include the
two-parameter Weibull distribution and the log-normal distri-
bution which are the two distributions most frequently used in
aging studies. Most attention is given t o lifetime models under
multiple stresses which have recently generated considerable
interest. In particular, several models under combined electri-
cal and thermal stresses are presented and their applicability
is analyzed and discussed. These include the multistress mod-
els proposed by Simoni and Ramu, both employing the inverse
power law for electrical aging, the exponential model by Fallou,
the probabilistic model by Montanari, and the physical model
by Crine. This paper discusses trends in the development of
these models.

INTRODUCTION 1. Electrical stress: The aging process is caused mostly

by an electrical gradient in the insulation. A capacitor
is a n example of high electrical stress present, where
CTRICAL insulation has combined functions in pro- the working stresses may exceed 55 V/pm for AC ap-
E"" 4

viding electrical isolation, mechanical support, heat

dissipation, energy storage and personnel safety. There
are three main types of electrical insulation: solid, liq-
uid and gaseous. Electrical failure in solid insulation is
of the non-reversible destructive type, whereas in gases
and liquids it is of the reversible, non- destructive type
[l]. Therefore, solid insulators are of most interest in ag-
ing studies. Solid insulators are widely used in capacitors,
transformers, cables, transmission lines, motors and other
devices. Failure in these electrical components is largely
attributed to the breakdown of electrical insulation due
to presence of degrading stresses, such as electrical, ther-
mal, mechanical stress and also other stresses associated
with the environment in which they serve. Some of these
examples are described below:
plications [2,3], and 246 V/pm for pulse applications
with life over lo4 pulses [4].
2.Thermal stress: The aging process is caused by the
high temperature environment, resistivity losses or
chemical instability of the insulation. For example,
thermal stresses may involve temperatures of 150'C
caused by conduction current and heat buildup [5].
3. Mechanical stress: Aging is caused by varying mechnn-
ical stresses, for example, through thermal expansion,
vibrations, electric compressive force, etc.
4. Environmental stress: Aging is caused by conditions in
the environment of the insulation. For example, mois-
ture, chemical reaction, oxidation or radiation, with
different types of radiation like electron or neutron
flux, which may be present if devices are used in space

0018-9367/90/1000-923$1.00 @ 1990 IEEE

924 Cygan et al.:Insulation Aging under Electrical and Thermal Multistress
environments or nuclear reactors [6,7].
As illustrated by the above examples, some of the de-
grading stresses are prevalent in specific applications. On
the other hand, these stresses, depending on the nature
of equipment and its environment, may combine into a
‘multistress’ situation and cause the aging process to ac-
celerate further. One of the most frequently encountered
situations in real applications are electrical and thermal
stresses, acting simultaneously.
The ability of the insulating material to withstand de-
grading stresses is of utmost importance in the evalua-
tion of the material itself. Specifically, the time t o break-
down (or lifetime) of insulation under the applied electri-
cal stress is of major interest in aging studies. A large
variety of tests have been performed for this purpose.
REVIEW OF ELECTRICAL
AND THERMAL STRESS
AGING
GING under multifactor stresses is an area that has
A recently generated considerable interest. A broad
bibliographic survey was made available recently which
includes major publications on the multistress aging of
polymeric insulators [8]. The interest in tests with si-
multaneous stresses is obvious since the results obtained
are quite different when stresses are applied separately
or sequentially [9, lo]. Simultaneous electrical and ther-
mal stresses have been most commonly investigated since
the presence of these two stresses is almost unavoidable
in most applications [5]. Various experiments have been
performed and models proposed to predict life under sep-
arate or combined stresses. A majority of these experi-
ments are performed with the aging process accelerated
by stresses significantly exceeding the normal operating
stress. Extrapolating life and behavior of these materials
when aged under accelerated conditions to that under a
real environment is one of the key goals of these stud-
ies, and can be achieved by using a model which best fits
the experimental data. There have been several models
used to estimate lifetime of the insulation under single
or multiple stresses. Of these, the most frequently used
models are the inverse power model [ll-131 and the ex-
ponential model [13,14] under electrical stress only. Cor-
respondingly, for thermal stress only, the Arrhenius rela-
tionship [15,16] of exponential character is mainly used.
More complex models have also been suggested, such as
the Theory of Equalization [17]. For multiple stresses,
particularly for electrical and thermal stresses acting si-
multaneously, several models have been proposed. For
example, the model based on the Eyring relation by Si-
moni [18,19] and Ramu [20,21], the exponential model
by Fallou et al. [21,22], the probabilistic model by Mon-
tanari et al. [23], and the physical model by Crine et al.
[24,25].
In this paper the statistical methods involved in the
interpretation of the lifetime data, namely the Weibull
and the log-normal distributions, and also the most fre-
quently used aging relations under the electrical, thermal
and combined stresses are reviewed.
ACCELERATED AGING
The main goal of aging studies is to establish a rela-
tionship for the aging process and the stresses causing it,
to suggest models, and t o verify them. All this is done
through an accelerated process, and the results applied
to normal operating conditions. The long-term tests a t
realistic working stresses are not possible due to the time
constraints. For example, underground transmission ca-
bles are designed for forty years of service [5]. Therefore,
being able to predict end of life with certain degree of
accuracy in a short time span by accelerating the aging
process is very useful to the design engineers. This is
why the accelerated aging tests are generally accepted
methods for estimating the service-life and other charac-
teristics of solid electrical insulation.
There are several ways to accelerate the aging process,
particularly when exposed t o simultaneous electrical and
thermal stresses. The most popular are experiments per-
formed on insulation at voltages and temperatures much
higher than normal operating conditions. Within this ap-
proach, there are two methods of applying voltage stress,
both a t constant frequency [26,27]. In the first method,
the voltage (some percentage of breakdown voltage) is
held constant and time t o failure is observed. In the sec-
ond method, the voltage stress is raised in steps (or con-
tinuously) until the tested specimen fails, and then the
voltage a t which breakdown occurred is noted. For both
tests, the experimental data is then converted to life a t
a lower stress by the use of empirical models. Another
approach is to keep the voltage constant a t lower lev-
els (close to service conditions) and accelerate the aging
process through a n increase in frequency of the applied
voltage [28]. However, this procedure is limited by the
dependence of insulation material properties, e.g. dielec-
tric loss, on the frequency [5]. Furthermore, these tests
are unreliable because of non-linear effects of frequency
on life, especially at higher frequencies [28,29]. Similar
to the procedure for electrical stress, the aging process
under thermal stress is accelerated by applying higher
I E E E !l'ransactions on Electrical Insulation Vol. 25 N o . 5 , October 1990 925

temperatures. Typically, the samples are aged for sev-
eral designated time spans and examined for physical and
chemical changes, and voltage breakdown strength tests
are conducted [17,30].
STRESS
ordered from smallest to largest and a probability calcu-
lated [13,31] for each point using the relationship below
i
F(2) = - x 100%
(n+ 1)
where F(i)-is the percentage of failed samples, i is an
order of failed sample (rank), and n is the total number
of samples (including samples not failed).
Next, special probability graph paper is used to draw
these points. If the plotted data fit a straight line, rough
estimates for a particular distribution may be obtained.
However , for precise calculation including confidence in-
tervals, one has to refer to specially developed computer
programs or tables generated for this purpose [27,32].

TWO-PARAMETER WElBU LL
DISTRIBUTION

Figure 1. As mentioned before, the Weibull distribution, or more

Aging factors and possible interactions.
There is also a different aspect of the aging studies as
most of the electrical equipment is subject to multiple
stresses, which interact with each other in the aging pro-
cess, as depicted in Figure 1. Even though most studies
are done under a single stress, it has been shown that
specifically, the two-parameter Weibull distribution, main-
ly is used for solid insulation, and it may represent either
breakdown time or voltage. It is an extreme value distri-
bution, and the probability distribution is [13,27,32]
~ ( z =) 1- exp IP):(-[ z >o (2)

employing single stresses consecutively does not repro- where F ( z ) is a probability of failure, a is the scale pa-
duce the results when combined stresses are applied si- rameter (a > 0) and represents the time (or voltage) for
multaneously [9, lo]. From a practical point of view, the F ( z ) t o reach 63.2%, p is the shape parameter (p > 0)
application of the data from a single stress may not be and is a measure of spread of the data, and z is a random
related or may include errors in reference to real condi- variable (time or voltage).
tions. Because of this fact, research on aging is concen-
trated now on the most common factors i.e. thermal and
electrical stresses applied simultaneously. The scatter in
the experimental data from any lifetime test advocates
the application of statistical methods which are briefly
described in the section below.

STATISTICAL METHODS
Specimen No. F(i) Breakdown Time ti

Statistics is frequently used to predict life expectancy

(i) (%I (h)

and ability of the system t o withstand voltage strength. 1 10 15.3

To properly evaluate the data, certain steps are required. 2 20 30.3
Firstly, a proper probability distribution must be selected. 3 30 48.5
4 40 89.4
For solids, mostly Weibull and log-normal distributions
5 50 90.4
are used [13,29]. Secondly, the distribution parameters 105.7
6 60
and their confidence intervals should be estimated. 7 70 144.9
8 80
To evaluate the data using Weibull distribution, a spe- 9 90
cial procedure has to be followed. The data must be
92 6 Cygan et al. :Insulation Aging under Electrical and Thermal Multistress

ORIGIN
SMALL BETA ESTIMATOR A
0.0 50
1
30
20
0.5 -
L

W
3 10
:
; 6
F 4
3-1.15 W
I I I I I 1
E
1.5 c 2
0.5

0.2 1
0
0.1
2.0 3 10 30 100 300 1,000 LCGNORPUL FAILURE PROBABILITY
TIME ( h )
Figure 3.
Figure 2.
Lognormal probability plot of failure d a t a in Ta-
Weibull plot of failure d a t a for t h e epoxy speci-
ble 2 with line fit by eye [13].
mens in Table 1 with line fit by eye, a a n d p are
scale and shape parameter, respectively [13]. Table 2.
Breakdown d a t a on epoxy specimens with Log-
LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION normal distribution [13].

Specimen No. F(i) Breakdown Time t i

The log-normal distribution also is used in aging stud-
(i) (%6) (hours)
ies, mostly in life tests. The probability density function
is given by [13,31] 1 10 7.0 0.84
2 20 8.5 0.93
3 30 11.0 1.04
(3) 4 40 12.0 1.08
5 50 12.0 1.08
where z = log z, z is breakdown voltage or time to failure, 6 60 17.0 1.23
p is logarithmic mean, and c is the logarithmic standard 7 70 18.0 1.25
deviation. 8 80 18.0 1.25
9 90 21.0 1.32
An estimate of the log mean is the voltage or time
corresponding to F ( z ) = 50%. In a similar fashion to Eyring) that the power law has a sound theoretical back-
Weibull distribution, as was shown in Figure 2, data also ground. For these models, the sets of d a t a for several
can be plotted using the log-normal graph paper. An different voltages (at constant frequency) are taken with
example of such plots is shown in Figure 3 using the data other conditions unchanged.
from Table 2.
In the following analysis, the electrical stress a t con-
LIFE MODELS FOR stant frequency is assumed to be the only stress.
ELECTRICAL STRESS
INVERSE POWER LAW
stress is one of the main factors caus-
E LECTRICAL
ing deterioration of electrical insulation, and therefore
numerous studies have been carried out under electrical
The inverse power model is one of the most frequently
used in the aging studies under electrical stress only. It
stress only. Two major models relating the test stress is described by the following relationship [13]
with the time to failure are universally accepted: the in- L = kV-"
verse power model and the exponential model. These (4)
two are the earliest failure models, the power law was log L = log k - dogV
proposed by Peek [33] in 1929. Even though both mod- where L is the time to failure (usually it is a Weibull scale
els were conceived as empirical formulas, it was shown by parameter, the mean or some percentile), V the applied
Endicott [12] (employing the reaction rate theories by H. voltage, and k, n are constants t o be determined.
IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation Vol. 25 No. 5, October 1990 92 7

To test the validity of applying this model, data are

plotted on log - log paper and checked to see if a straight \
line results. An example of inverse power law with plotted 40 t*t

data is shown in Figure 4.

\
-7
30

20

10
10

100 102 103 106

TIME-TO-FAILURE ( h )
Figure 4 .
Inverse Power Law, the open circles represent the
means (based on the lognormal) for the time-to-
failure at each test voltage [13].
EXPONENTIAL LAW
Next to the power law, the exponential representation
is the most commonly used. The basic form of this model
is given by [13]
L = cexp(-kV)
(5)
log L = logc - kV
where L is the time to failure, V the applied voltage, and
c, k are constants to be found from experimental data.
Again, the validity of the exponential model is checked
by plotting the data points on semi-log paper, as shown in
Figure 5. If a straight line results (shown by the dashed
line), the assumption of using the exponential model is
correct.
0.1 1 IO 100 103 104 105
TIME ( h )
Figure 5.
Exponential model (semi-log plot). Mean curve
(solid line), exponential model without threshold
(dashed line), and threshold value (dash-dotted
line) from lifetime data of varnished polyamide
films [34].
L=- K2
E - Eo exp[-KI(E - EO)] (7)
where E is the applied stress, Lo is life a t EO(the thresh-
old stress), and K1, Kz are constants.
With these transformed equations, a better approxi-
mation may be achieved a t lower fields; however, both
relations state an infinite life when approaching either
zero (Equation 6) or the threshold stress (Equation 7),
which is inconsistent with existing experimental data.
Therefore, the models are valid for the regions a t stresses
E 2 Eo (Equation 6) and E > E o (Equation 7) [18]. At
lower fields ( E < E O ) ,the thermal stress is postulated to
be responsible for the insulation failure.

Even though both models are extremely useful for quick

analysis, the extrapolation of the results to operating con-
ditions presents difficulties. In a real situation, based on
the experimental data and illustrated on the exponen-
tial model in Figure 5, a threshold value (shown by the
dashed-dotted line) is reached, close to which the life-
times are significantly increased (shown by the solid line).
Therefore, the simple equations for both models can be
augmented by incorporating a threshold stress (Eo). The
modified equations for the power [18,19] and the expo-
nential [35] laws are given in Equations 6 and 7, respec-
tively,
r mi--n
L = Lo
AGING MODELS FOR
THERMAL STRESS
A R R H EN I US RE LAT IO NS H I P
stress is a major factor in limiting life of
T HERMAL
the electrical insulation. As early as in 1930, the
empirical expression was formulated for life of electrical
insulation under thermal stresses [36]. In 1948, Dakin 1371
pr.oposed a new theory for the interpretation of thermal
aging based on the Arrhenius relationship. This theory,
describing the dependence of chemical reaction rates on

r
028 Cygan et al.:Insulation A g i n g u n d e r Electrical and Thermal M u l t i s t r e s s

the temperature, is still used today as a basis of thermal both, and the rates of these reactions can be presented in
aging [5, 171. It is given by the general form with N equations
B dc;
L = Aexp - - = -hi(T)Gi(gl,gzr.. .gm)Ci(cl,cz,. . - C N ) (9)
T (8) dt
where L is the life, T the temperature, and A , B are where i = 1 . . . N for homogeneous reactions, T the ab-
constants determined by the activation energy of the re- solute temperature, c; the concentration of characteristic
action. group in reaction i, g j the concentration of the active
gas j in the material (assumed constant but may depend
Similar to the voltage aging relations discussed previ- on temperature), G; is a simplified function for chemi-
ously, when log life is plotted against reciprocal of abso- cal reactions expressed as nLl gy'ni where n,; may be
lute temperature (l/T), a straight line results. A graphi- temperature dependent and represents the reaction order
cal example of the Arrhenius relationship is presented in due to gas n in reaction i, k , ( T ) is a function and may
Figure 6. be of Arrhenius form (Equation 8), and C; are functions
of the concentration of a characteristic group ( c i ) in re-
action i, are separable from IC,(T)G;,and are assumed to
be independent of temperature.
104
w
a A connection between physical properties and compo-
3
sa: sition of the material is represented as a single-valued
function of chemical and physical details of its composi-
clr
0 tion
w p = f ( C 1 , C Z I * * .cn) (10)
VI
a 103 For example, in case of N homogenous equations and time
3
e transformation t' = A t , the acceleration factor A may be
calculated a t two different temperatures TI and T2

where t' is equivalent time a t Tz. After simplification,

200 250 300
TEMPERATURE ("C)
Figure 6.
Arrhenius plot of class H insulation data [16].
THEORY OF EQUALIZATION
There are recent theories for accelerated thermal en-
durance tests on the electrical insulation, one of them be-
ing the 'Theory of Equalization of Thermal Aging' given
by Paloniemi [17]. This model describes the physical ag-
ing phenomena in a way to obtain more accurate repro-,
duction of true aging process. It assumes that the ag-
ing process consists of several chemical reactions, taking
place simultaneously, which may have different activation
energies, and all together having some effect on physi-
cal properties of the electrical insulation. Some types of
these reactions are: thermal degradation, oxidation, and
hydrolysis.
In this approach, the aging process is assumed to con-
sist of N reactions which may be chemical or physical, or
Equation 11 converts t o
where i = 1 . . .m, k o ( T ) denotes the rate function of the
thermal degradation, and g,z is the concentration for the
active gases a t Tz and can be determined if reaction rates
( I C ; , n,) a t both temperatures are known.
However, degradation by its very nature involves non-
equilibrium processes, so even with some practical utility
this model may not be completely self consistent in a long-
term thermodynamic sense, and has therefore so far not
been fully adopted. Details on this theory are provided
in [17].
MULTISTRESS AGING
MODELS
models are of special interest in recent
M ULTISTRESS
developments in aging studies on electrical insula-
tion. In general, new models are limited to common aging
IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation
factors such as thermal and voltage stresses acting simul-
taneously. These include models by Simoni [18,19] and
Ramu [20,21] based on Eyring relation, the exponential
model by Fallou et al. [21,22], the probabilistic model by
Montanari et al. [23], and the recent model by Crine et
al. [24,25].
E
Figure 7.
Life surface for combined stresses using Simoni’s
model [19].
ELECTRICAL STRENGTH MODEL BY
SIMON1
In this model, the equation for the decrease (with time)
of the dielectric strength under combined electrical ( E )
and thermal ( T ) stresses is obtained by assuming the
following: the aging process is treated as a cumulative
quantity, the electric strength is the basic property for
the aging evaluation, and the earlier model [18] for life
under combined stress (included in the general equation)
is valid.
The general equation of the Electric Strength model by
Simoni is summarized in [19]
( E S / E S O ) ~=+1~- t / L o ( E / E o ) N e x p ( B D T )
N=n-bDT
D T = 1/To - 1/T
where E S is the electric strength after prestress for time t ,
ESo the electric strength for non-prestressed specimens, n
the exponent in the inverse power law, b the constant for
the material, TOthe room temperature, T the absolute
temperature, B the constant from Arrhenius model, E
the applied electric stress, Eo the electric stress below
which electrical aging ceases, and LO life a t E < EOand
room temperature TO.
For ES = 0, t = L where L is insulation life, the above
equation becomes the life equation for combined stresses
LILO = ( exp( - B DT)
Vol. 25 No. 5 , October 1990 Q2Q
From the analysis of the general equation, it is evident
that all previously discussed simple models are obtain-
able from this model. However, of special interest is that
the equation, besides providing all relationships charac-
teristic to aging tests under combined electrical and ther-
mal stresses, also provides the electric strength variation
with time. Another characteristic point is the geometrical
representation of four related quantities (electric stress E ,
temperature T, electric strength ES and time t ) which
represents a hyper-surface. In addition, the universality
of this model can also be shown geometrically. When
the time factor is removed, the life surface diagram is ob-
tained, as is shown in Figure 7. If one of the two factors
(electrical or thermal stress) is removed from Equation 14,
the curve of the electric strength due to time and present
aging stress can be obtained as is shown in Figure 8.
E (109)
t
L (109)
TIPLE
Figure 8.
Electrical life lines at various temperatures using
Simoni’s model [19].
MODEL BY RAMU
This model is based on Eyring’s physico-chemical reac-
(13) tion rate process which assumes existence of thresholds,
both electrical and thermal under which the aging process
is negligible. It is represented by [20,21]
L = K(T)E-n(T)exp(-B D T ) E > Eo (15)
where K ( T ) = exp(KI-KZDT), and n ( T )= n l - n z D T ,
where L,E , Eo, TO,T,DT, B are the same as for Simoni’s
model, and B , K1, K2, nl, n2 are constants which are
determined experimentally. This model is represented by
the power law graph of Figure 9 [38].
EXPONENTIAL M O D E L BY FALLOU
Similarly to previous models, the exponential model
(14) employs thermal and electrical stress relationships. It is
930 Cygan et al. :Insulation Aging under Electrical and Thermal Multistress

discussed previously. In this model, after multiplication,

r three terms for the aging process are clearly distinguish-
-
-> 1 . 3
Y
able i.e. electrical, thermal and combined electrical and
thermal
v

al exp(A2E) exp - exp -

B1
(17)
-
-
m T T
2 1.2
0 where A is a new constant. Exponential plots of Figure 10
>
0
are representative for this model.
0
A
1.1 -
PROBABILISTIC MODEL BY
M 0N T A NA RI

1.0' ' I " " " "

1 2 3 4 5 6
Log Time (S) The probabilistic life model by Montanari et al. [23],
also called the inverse power threshold model (IPTM),
Figure 9.
takes a different approach to the life equation under com-
Power law plots at different temperatures for poly- bined electrical and thermal stresses. It utilizes the in-
propylene-oil system using Ramu's model [38]. verse power law in a slightly different form
( L = t,(E/E,)-n) from the one presented previously. To
given by [21,22]
account for the electrical threshold and the upward cur-
vature of the life line, the authors propose a modified
L = exp[A(E) + 1-WTE ) E>O (16)
expression for the power exponent n which is dependent
on electric stress and temperature:
where A and B are electrical stress related constants,
+
A ( E ) = A1 A1E, and B ( E ) = B1 + B2E.
n=
n,
(1 - E -E
E,'-E= )"
20 where ET is the electrical threshold a t temperature T ,
E, the reference electrical stress, n, the initial endurance
coefficient and function of T , and v is the shape parameter
(v = v ( T ) ) .with other parameters defined as in previous
10
models. Substituting the scale parameter in the Weibull
distribution (Equation 2) with the life using the inverse
power model leads to the following relationship:

F ( t , E , T ) = 1 - exp [-().I t E
E,
P(E?T)
(19)

where t , is the time to failure a t an electric stress E,, and

2 P(E, T)the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution
of breakdown voltages.

This equation can be transformed for given probability

3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 p to the time-tefailure percentiles

1000/T( K-' )
Figure 10.
Exponential model by Fallou; variations of char-
acteristic life with temperature at different elec-
tric stresses for polypropylene-oil system [21].
Constants A I , Az, B1 and Bz are determined experi-
mentally. Other parameters are defined in the two models
Assuming the shape parameter remains constant i.e. it
is independent of electric stress @ ( E , T ) = P,(T)), this
model has five parameters ( t d ,n,, ET, v , P,) t o be deter-
mined experimentally. Experimental data and theoretical
life curve for this model are shown in Figure 11.
IEEE Transactions on Electrical Insulation
Id Id‘
LIFE (h)
Figure 11.
Experimental d a t a a n d theoretical life curve for
XLPE cables using t h e Probabilistic model by
Montanari [23].
MODEL BY CRlNE
In this most recent proposition [24,25], the authors sug-
gest a simple physical model, based partially on the rate
theory, to describe the aging process of electrical insula-
tion. The proposed model assumes that stress, electrical,
or of other nature, reduces the height of the energy bar-
rier controlling the process. The time t required to go
over a barrier, and therefore the lifetime is described as
1251
L--J
h AG
t = - exp -csch
kT kT
where h is the Planck constant, k the Boltzmann con-
stant, A G the free energy, X the barrier width (or carrier
mean free path), and E is the electrical (or mechanical or
other stress) and with other parameters as described pre-
viously. In the high-field region, i.e. above a critical field
E,, Equation 21 reduces to the exponential dependence
h A G - eXE
kT
With this equation, the values for free energy A G and
mean free path A can be obtained from the plot of logt
vs. E , and may also be used for the lower field region.
However, these two parameters change with the polymer
morphology, test temperature and the environment [24].
In addition, the value of mean free path X varies with the
applied stress a t low fields. Even though it makes the
extrapolation to lower stresses more difficult, the authors
report better agreement of the experimental data on PE,
XLPE and E P R cables with this model than by the power
laws [24].
Vol. 25 N o . 5 , October 1990 931
DISCUSSION
N general, the models for multiple stress aging under
I combined electrical and thermal stresses are derived
from single stress equations and include terms responsi-
ble for the acting stresses which may be of power or expo-
nential types. This trend is shown explicitly in the mod-
els by Simoni (Equation 13) and Ramu (Equation 15).
Both models employ the inverse power rule and the Ar-
rhenius relationship for electrical and thermal aging fac-
tors, respectively. If only Simoni’s life model is considered
(Equation 14) these two models are basically the same
and differ only in representation of the constants [39].
The big advantage of these two models is a broad base of
research conducted under single stresses from which they
evolved giving them high credibility. Both models ac-
knowledge the existence of the threshold voltage (Eo)and
so the upward curvature of the life line a t lower stresses.
At this region, i.e. E < Eo, they assume electrical aging
ceases and only the thermal stress is responsible for fail-
ure. On the other hand, the general equation proposed by
Simoni appears to be quite universal. This model takes
the electric strength as the main property of a tested ma-
terial and also includes the time factor. It may be eas-
ily transformed into a lifetime equation under single or
combined electrical and thermal stresses. In addition, its
graphical portrayal provides visual insight into the model
and characteristics of tested materials.
The exponential model by Fallou (Equation 16) is also
a good representation of the experimental data [21]. How-
ever, the results obtained using this model a t room tem-
perature do not satisfy the model’s equation [22]. Also,
(21)
this model (valid for E > 0) does not take into account
the threshold voltage, since the exponential function’s
properties account for the curvature of the life line a t
stresses close t o zero. Therefore, extrapolation of results
from this model to lower stresses has to be approached
with extreme caution. In addition, this model lacks some
of the physical background from the single stress models
presented in previous publications [12,37] and incorpo-
rated in other multistress models.
The probabilistic model by Montanari takes a different
approach to the threshold value. It also uses the inverse
power law as an aging model; however, it addresses the
threshold voltage curvature of lifetime line in a different
manner by suggesting a modified expression for the power
exponent which includes the dependence on temperature
and electric stress, and also a shape parameter ( v ) ac-
counting for different properties of the tested material
and therefore different lifelines. Unlike previous models,
it does not have a separate term for the thermal stress
alone. This is a relatively new approach but needs to
932 Cygan et al.:Insulation A g i n g u n d e r E l e c t r i c a l and Thermal M u l t i s t r e s s
be verified. Also, the model suggests that below certain
threshold values life will be unhampered. Very good cor-
relation is reported by the authors on XLPE cable test
data [23].
The model by Crine is an innovative idea striving to
give the aging relations, until now mostly of empirical
nature, some physical meaning. And so, in this expres-
sion for aging as a rate-controlled process, physical con-
stants (Planck, Boltzmann) and parameters (free energy,
mean free path) are utilized. It appears that similar to
other models, the extrapolation of the results to the lower
fields a t operating conditions needs to be approached cau-
tiously. Because of its relative novelty, the model, al-
though very promising, needs to be verified with addi-
tional research and experimentation.
The aging models presented above bear significant re-
semblance in the approach and the representation of the
ability of materials to withstand degrading stresses. Most
of the models originated as empirical formulae and are
based on experimental data, with little or no theoreti-
cal basis or physical explanation of the aging process it-
self, except for the use of Eyring relation and Arrhenius
model for voltage and thermal aging, respectively. Also,
the presence of threshold stresses in most of the models,
explaining extended lifetimes a t lower fields, makes the
extrapolation of results t o this region more reliable. The
differences between the various models are mainly in the
interpretation of constants in either the power or the ex-
ponential relation. On the other hand, Crine’s model,
based partially on the rate theory, makes use of generally
known physical constants and parameters. The appear-
ance of this new model, with its advantages and flaws,
certainly seems t o be a step in the right direction; the
step towards generalization of the aging process of elec-
trical insulation.
CONCLUSION
are two major methods of conducting the accel-
T HERE
erated aging tests of the electrical insulation: under
single and multiple stresses. The single stress approach,
usually electrical or thermal, offers relative simplicity in
conducting the test itself i.e. the experimental set up,
interpretation of the d a t a and development of empirical
relations. However, the major drawback of this method is
its inapplicability to real life operating conditions which
mostly are of the multistress type. Because of that, the
extrapolation of results from tests using single stresses
has t o be done with great caution.
The multistress aging models are based on the cumu-
lative damage theory and offer a better approximation of
the aging process in the electrical insulation under real
conditions. However, with each additional stress, the
complexity of conducting the studies and deriving appro-
priate models increases. This is the reason these models
are mostly limited to electrical and thermal stresses ap-
plied simultaneously. Empirical expressions for the mod-
els under these two stresses evolve from single stress tests
and include most commonly the inverse power or expo-
nential model for the electrical stress and the Arrhenius
relationship of exponential character for thermal stress.
The introduction of a new model by Crine makes a strong
statement of the need of giving the aging process, till now
represented by empirical expressions, a physical meaning.
However, because of its relative new approach, more re-
search is needed, particularly a t low fields, to give this
model a stronger meaning.
The addition of more stresses, such as mechanical stress-
es present in rotating machines, or radiation present in
space or in a nuclear environment, creates a much more
difficult situation for analysis because all the combined
stresses contribute in an interactive way towards the degra-
dation of a stressed material. First-order models have yet
t o be developed for these multi (more than two) stresses.
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Manuscript was received on 27 Jul 1990