Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Kerawang
District
Bekasi District
Bekasi City
SEDIMENTATION POLLUTION
Photo Source: various
Objectives
• To assess the vulnerability of villages
in CRB to potential impact of climate
changes and level of climate risk of
the villages
• The results of analysis is required for
– identifying which villages are most
vulnerable to climate change;
– determining what factors causing them
vulnerable whether they are more
sensitive, more exposed, or have a low
adaptive capacity; and
– Identifying what actions can be taken to
reduce this vulnerability.
The Concept of Vulnerability
• Vulnerability can be defined as
– The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to
cope with adverse effects of climate change, including climate
variability and extremes (IPCC, 2007).
– It is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate
variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity and its
adaptive capacity” (IPCC 2007)
• A system said becoming more vulnerable when
– Its sensitivity and level of exposure to stresses (climate
change) increase and
– Its capacities and opportunities to adapt to climate change
diminishes
• Vulnerability will determine level of consequence (magnitude
impact) of climate change on the system
Vulnerability is function of exposure,
sensitivity and adaptive capacity
• Exposure (IPCC, 2014) indicates the presence of people, livelihoods,
species or ecosystems, environmental functions, services, and resources,
infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings
that could be adversely affected by climate change
• Sensitivity is the degree to which systems respond to the changes
(Jacqueline Balston & Associations, 2012). It represents internal condition
of a system which shows level of reaction of the system to a change.
– A system that has a large reaction to a change in the climate is called
high sensitive to climate change.
– Thus systems that can endure significant changes in climate would be
considered to have a low sensitivity
• Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change
(including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential
damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the
consequences (IPCC, 2007)
Methodology
wi = weight of Indicator-i
SEU & ACI = wi*Ii Ii = normalized indicator-i
Categorizing village vulnerability Using Quadrant
Method
To assess relative position of village (as example) based on vulnerability index. Quadrant method
categorizes the vulnerability of village based on the position of the village in the quadrant (based
on the Exposure and Sensitivity Index, SEI; and Adaptive Capacity Index, ACI). If SEI and IKA value
in Quadrant 5, we can define the village has narrow coping range or very vulnerable
SEI High
60
2005
50 2011
40 1,167
Village (%)
Villages
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5
Type
The overall vulnerability profile of the villages improved from 2005 to 2011. Very
vulnerable village decreased from 45 to 17 villages. This is attributed to improved access
to electricity. However, most villages experienced difficulties in accessing clean drinking
water. Wells dried up, particularly in the upper and middle part of the CRB, and some
households sourced their water from springs instead during the dry season.
Probability of rainfall causing flood & Drought
• Frequency of flood
1.00
may increase in the
0.83 future almost in all
0.66 villages located either
0.50
0.33
in the upper, middle
0.17 and lower CRB.
0.00 Similarly also for
drought.
• Without improvement
1.00 of the vulnerability, the
0.83
level of climate risk of
0.66
many villages will
0.50
increase in the future.
0.33
• The magnitude of
0.17
change of extreme
0.00
climate events depend
on emission scenarios
Level of Climate
Risk of Villages in
CRB (Floods)
• Most villages fall under the
risk categories of low to
medium under current
climate conditions
• The future level of flood
risk of most villages will
increase irrespective of
the emission scenarios
from low-medium to
medium-high, if there is
no change in vulnerability.
• The level of flood risk
continues to increase until
the end of the century.
The change is significant,
particularly for scenarios
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
Level of Climate
Risk of Villages in
CRB (Drought)
• The level of drought
risk for most villages
in the CRB is
categorized between
low and medium
under current climate
conditions
• Drought risk will also
increase in the future
compare to present
conditions, mostly
from medium to
medium-high for all
emission scenarios.
• It will continue to
increase until the end
of the century
Prioritizing Village for Adaptation
Current Future
Urgency of Number of
climate Climate Notes
Adaptation villages
risk Risk
Cipayung H VH H H
Bekasi Cikarang Timur
Labansari H VH H VH
District
Kedungwaringin Bojongsari H VH H H
Pebayuran Karangsegar H VH H H
Bojongpicung Hegarmanah H VH H VH
Cianjur Campaka Mulya Sukasirna M-H H MH H
District Cikalongkulon Mekar Sari H VH H H
Sukanagara Sukalaksana H VH H H
Sukaresmi Kawungluwuk H VH H H
Karawang Pakisjaya Telukbuyung H VH H H
District Ciampel Parung Mulya M-H M-H M-H M-H
Bojong Sindangpanon M-H H M-H H
Purwakarta
Tegal Waru Galumpit H VH H H
Conclusion
• There was an improvement of villages condition in
term of their vulnerability from 2005 to 2011
• If there is no change in vulnerability, the future level of
climate risk of most villages will increase irrespective of
the emission scenarios from low-medium to medium-
high
• The level of climate risk continues to increase until the
end of the century. The change is significant,
particularly for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
• It is very important for local governments to plan and
implement development programs that take into
account the increasing vulnerability and climate risks.
• There are 25 villages require immediate adaptation
actions to reduce their vulnerability to drought and/or
flood.