International Journal of GEOMATE, June 2019, Vol.16, Issue 58, pp.

145 - 150

3.2 Magnitude Probability 3.3 Ground Motion Probability and Mean

Annual Rate of Exceedance
The seismic data used are based on the historical
earthquake data from PHIVOLCS recorded from In this process, the ground motion values are
1900 to 2015 [14]. The analysis used moment estimated and compared to obtain the rate of
magnitudes of engineering interest only having a exceeding target ground motions from 0.1g to 1.0g.
value of M5.2 and above [13], [15]. Seismic data The values of rate of exceedance are used to
was also filtered based on coordinates which are calculate the PGA at return periods of 500 and 2500
located within 50 kilometers from the fault line as years.
shown in Table 2. The relationship between the
seismic events and magnitudes was established 3.3.1 Ground motion prediction equation (GMPE)
through bounded Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence
Law as represented by Eq. (1). The GMPE used to estimate the motion values is
based on the similar model used by PHIVOLCS in
Table 2 West Valley Fault seismic data the generation of PEM. The attenuation model by
Youngs, Chiou, Silva and Humphrey [17] predicts
Depth, Mw the PGA, 𝒍𝒍𝒍𝒍 𝒚𝒚 generated by subduction zone
Lat. Long. Mw earthquakes and represented by the expression,
(km) Ml Mb Ms
14.50 121.50 33 0 0 7.5 7.47
14.20 120.60 60 0 0 6.8 6.77 𝐥𝐥𝐥𝐥 𝒚𝒚 = −𝟎𝟎. 𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔 + 𝟏𝟏. 𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒𝟒𝑴𝑴𝒘𝒘 + 𝑪𝑪𝟏𝟏
14.00 121.00 50 0 0 5.7 5.89 +𝑪𝑪𝟐𝟐 (𝟏𝟏𝟏𝟏 − 𝑴𝑴𝒘𝒘 )𝟑𝟑 + 𝑪𝑪𝟑𝟑 𝐥𝐥𝐥𝐥[𝒓𝒓 + 𝟏𝟏. 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝒆𝒆𝟎𝟎.𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔𝟔𝑴𝑴𝒘𝒘 )]
13.96 120.87 49 0 5 0 5.24 +𝟎𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 + 𝟎𝟎. 𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑𝟑𝒁𝒁𝑻𝑻 (3)
13.98 120.74 4 0 5.1 0 5.30
14.70 121.20 22 0 4.9 0 5.18 where 𝑴𝑴𝒘𝒘 is the moment magnitude, 𝒓𝒓 is the
13.94 120.67 21 0 5.3 0 5.44 source-to-site distance, 𝑯𝑯 is the focal depth, 𝒁𝒁𝑻𝑻 =
14.00 120.70 33 0 4.9 0 5.18 𝟎𝟎 for interface earthquake = 𝟏𝟏 for interslaan b
14.02 120.65 5 4.7 5.7 5.1 5.81 earthquake, and 𝑪𝑪 are constants from Table 3.

𝐥𝐥𝐥𝐥𝐥𝐥 𝝀𝝀𝒎𝒎 = 𝒂𝒂 − 𝒃𝒃𝒃𝒃 (1) Table 3 Constants for attenuation model

where 𝝀𝝀𝒎𝒎 is the mean annual rate of exceeding Period C1 C2 C3 C4 C5

magnitude m, and 𝒂𝒂 and 𝒃𝒃 are constants from 0 0.00 0.00 -2.329 1.45 -0.1
recurrence function. 0.075 2.4 -0.0019 -2.697 1.45 -0.1
The probability of distribution of a magnitude, 0.1 2.516 -0.0019 -2.697 1.45 -0.1
𝑷𝑷[𝑴𝑴] in a given interval is expresses as, 0.2 1.549 -0.0019 -2.464 1.45 -0.1
0.3 0.793 -0.0020 -2.327 1.45 -0.1
𝑷𝑷[𝒎𝒎𝒍𝒍 < 𝒎𝒎 < 𝒎𝒎𝒖𝒖 ] = [𝒇𝒇𝑴𝑴 (𝒎𝒎)](𝒎𝒎𝒖𝒖 − 𝒎𝒎𝒍𝒍 ) (2) 0.4 0.144 -0.0020 -2.230 1.45 -0.1
0.5 -0.438 -0.0035 -2.140 1.45 -0.1
where 𝒎𝒎𝒍𝒍 and 𝒎𝒎𝒖𝒖 are lower and upper limits of 0.75 -1.704 -0.0048 -1.952 1.45 -0.1
magnitude respectively, and 𝒇𝒇𝑴𝑴 (𝒎𝒎) is the 1.0 -2.870 -0.0066 -1.785 1.45 -0.1
magnitude probability density function. 1.5 -5.101 -0.0114 -1.470 1.5 -0.1
Figure 4 shows the magnitude distribution 2.0 -6.433 -0.0164 -1.290 1.55 -0.1
function magnitudes M5.30 up to M7.36. 3.0 -6.672 -0.0221 -1.347 1.65 -0.1
4.0 -7.618 -0.0235 -1.272 1.65 -0.1

0.25 10 3.3.2 Mean annual rate of exceedance

Cumulative Frequency

0.2 8
This process involves the combination of the
p[M = m]

0.15 6 three calculated probabilities wherein seismic

0.1 4 hazard curves are generated. The annual rate of
exceedance of ground motion, 𝝀𝝀𝒚𝒚∗ is expressed as,
0.05 2
𝑵𝑵𝑺𝑺 𝑵𝑵𝑴𝑴 𝑵𝑵𝑹𝑹
0 0
𝝀𝝀𝒚𝒚∗ = � � � 𝝀𝝀𝒎𝒎 𝑷𝑷[𝒀𝒀 > 𝒚𝒚∗ ]
𝒊𝒊=𝟏𝟏 𝒊𝒊=𝟏𝟏 𝒊𝒊=𝟏𝟏
Magnitude 𝑷𝑷�𝑴𝑴 = 𝒎𝒎𝒋𝒋 �𝑷𝑷[𝑹𝑹 = 𝒓𝒓𝒌𝒌 ] (4)

Fig. 4 Magnitude Probability Distribution

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