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EQUITY RESEARCH
17 NOVEMBER 2014 COMPANY REPORT | BRAZIL—TRANSPORTATION
ECORODOVIAS BUY
CHEAPER THAN BEFORE, UPGRADE TO BUY CURRENT PRICE: R$9.88
TARGET PRICE: R$12.50
UPGRADING RATING TO BUY FROM UNDERPERFORM
LOWERING YE2015 TARGET PRICE TO R$12.50 FROM R$15.00
Net/Net: In June we downgraded our rating on Ecorodovias to Underperform based on (i) an implied nominal equity IRR of
10.7%, and (ii) anticipation of a potential aggressive bid for the Tamoios highway concession. We are now upgrading our
rating to Buy due to (i) an implied nominal equity IRR of 12.9%, and (ii) the fact that the company did not win Tamoios. We
are reducing our target price by R$2.50 to reflect a more negative traffic estimate.
revision that has implied a reduction of 260 bps in this indicator, we 100
70
(R$) 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E
60
P/E 20.8 18.5 15.7 13.6
50
FV/EBITDA 8.4 6.9 6.1 5.4
N-12 M-13 J-13 N-13 M-14 J-14 N-14
FCF Yield (%) 6.5 (1.2) 2.8 2.8
Sources: FactSet, Santander estimates and company reports.
Div Yield (%) 8.1 5.4 6.4 7.3
Net Debt/EBITDA 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.1
Sources: FactSet, Santander estimates and company reports.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES/CERTIFICATIONS ARE IN THE “IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES” SECTION OF THIS REPORT.
U.S. investors’ inquiries should be directed to Santander Investment Securities Inc. at (212) 583-4629 / (212) 350-3918.
* Employed by a non-US affiliate of Santander Investment Securities, Inc. and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under FINRA rules.
ECORODOVIAS
Financial Highlights: P&L, Balance Sheet and CF Statement, 2013–16E in Millions Company Description
R$ US$ Ecorodovias Infraestrutura e Logística S/A—the
P&L ACCOUNT 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Ecorodovias Group—is a large integrated infrastructure
Total Revenue 2,442 2,453 2,708 2,935 1,132 1,062 1,041 1,087 logistic firm. Currently, the company’s operations include
YoY change (%) 15.7 0.5 10.4 8.4 4.8 (6.2) (1.9) 4.4 six highway concessions: Ecovias dos Imigrantes,
Gross Profit - - - - - - - - Ecopistas, Ecovia, Ecocataratas, Ecosul and ECO101.
YoY change (%) - - - - - - - - The company’s businesses include intermodal logistic
EBITDA 1,317 1,294 1,492 1,685 611 560 574 624 assets. In addition, Ecorodovias holds Ecoporto, a
YoY change (%) 8.2 (1.8) 15.2 13.0 (2.0) (8.3) 2.4 8.8 container terminal in the port of Santos. In March 2010,
As % of Revenue 53.9 52.8 55.1 57.4 53.9 52.8 55.1 57.4 Ecorodovias listed shares in the Novo Mercado, a
Operating Income 970 873 1,017 1,149 450 378 391 426
segment of the Brazilian Stock Exchange with the highest
corporate governance standards.
YoY change (%) 1.8 (10.0) 16.5 13.0 (7.8) (16.0) 3.6 8.8
As % of Revenue 39.7 35.6 37.6 39.1 39.7 35.6 37.6 39.1 Key Personnel: Marco Antonio Cassou (Chairman),
Financial Results (341) (397) (463) (512) (158) (172) (178) (190) Marcelino Rafart de Seras (CEO), Marcelo Guidotti (CFO
Taxes (230) (176) (188) (217) (107) (76) (72) (80) and IR Director)
Net Profit 398 298 351 404 184 129 135 150 Web: www.ecorodovias.com.br
YoY change (%) (5.7) (25.1) 17.7 15.3 (14.6) (30.1) 4.6 11.0
As % of Revenue 16.3 12.1 13.0 13.8 16.3 12.1 13.0 13.8 Traffic Breakdown, 2013
CASH FLOW 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E
Depreciation & Amortization (263) (318) (357) (407) (122) (138) (137) (151)
Other Noncash Items - - - - - - - -
Changes in Working Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Operating Cash Flow 959 963 1,106 1,251 444 416 425 463
Capital Expenditures (862) (1,113) (726) (511) (399) (482) (279) (189)
Free Cash Flow 537 (67) 155 152 249 (29) 60 56
Other Invest./(Divestments) - - - - - - - -
Change in Debt 666 348 96 (233) 309 150 37 (86)
Dividends (666) (298) (351) (404) (309) (129) (135) (150)
Capital Increases/Other 0 270 0 0 0 117 0 0
BALANCE SHEET 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E
Cash and Equivalents 1,260 981 812 587 538 385 307 213
Current Assets 1,607 1,328 1,159 934 686 521 437 340
Fixed Assets 4,559 5,353 5,723 5,827 1,946 2,099 2,160 2,119 Revenue Breakdown, 2013
Total Assets 6,931 7,378 7,578 7,458 2,958 2,893 2,860 2,712
Current Liabilities 1,332 1,409 1,430 1,379 569 552 539 501
Long-Term Liabilities - - - - - - - -
Shareholders' Equity 2,072 2,158 2,184 2,211 884 846 824 804
Total Financial Debt 3,951 4,298 4,395 4,162 1,686 1,686 1,658 1,513
ST Debt 866 942 963 912 370 370 364 332
LT Debt 3,085 3,356 3,431 3,249 1,317 1,316 1,295 1,182
FINANCIAL RATIOS 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E
Net Debt 2,691 3,317 3,582 3,575 1,148 1,301 1,352 1,300
Capital Employed 6,023 6,456 6,579 6,373 2,571 2,532 2,483 2,317
Net Debt/EBITDA 2.0 2.6 2.4 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.1
Net Debt/Equity 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.6
Capex/Revenue (%) 35.3 45.4 26.8 17.4 35.3 45.4 26.8 17.4
Int Cover (%) - - - - - - - - Shareholder Structure, Current
Dividend Payout (%) 157.8 74.9 117.7 115.3 142.8 69.8 104.5 115.3
ROCE (%) 22.1 18.7 21.3 24.9 23.6 20.4 21.3 24.9
ROE (%) 19.0 14.1 16.2 18.4 19.3 15.1 16.2 18.4
MARKET RATIOS 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E
P/E 20.8 18.5 15.7 13.6 19.0 16.4 15.7 14.1
P/CE 12.5 9.0 7.8 6.8 11.4 7.9 7.8 7.0
FV/EBITDA 8.4 6.9 6.1 5.4 7.7 6.1 6.1 5.5
FV/EBIT 11.4 10.2 9.0 8.0 10.4 9.1 8.9 8.1
FV/Revenue 4.5 3.6 3.4 3.1 4.1 3.2 3.4 3.2
P/BV 4.0 2.6 2.5 2.5 4.0 2.5 2.6 2.6
FCF Yield (%) 6.5 (1.2) 2.8 2.8 7.1 (1.4) 2.8 2.7
Div Yield (%) 8.1 5.4 6.4 7.3 8.8 6.1 6.4 7.1
Sources for all charts and tables: Company reports and Santander
PER SHARE DATA 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E estimates.
EPS 0.71 0.53 0.63 0.72 0.33 0.23 0.24 0.27
DPS (1.19) (0.53) (0.63) (0.72) (0.55) (0.23) (0.24) (0.27)
BVPS 3.71 3.86 3.91 3.96 1.58 1.51 1.48 1.44
2
VALUATION
We discount our estimated free cash flows to firm by a WACC of 12.0% in R$. Our DCF yields an EV of
R$10,275 million, which implies an equity value of R$6,895 million, or R$12.50/share
With the company’s implied nominal equity IRR of 12.9% (7.8% real) and total-return potential of 32%, we
are upgrading the stock to Buy.
CHANGES TO ESTIMATES
Figure 2 summarizes the main changes to our estimates.
3
Figure 3. Income Statement (R$ millions)
2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14E 2014E 2015E
Net Revenue 2,442 606 574 632 642 2,453 2,708
o.w. Toll roads 1,595 430 413 459 474 1,777 2,029
o.w. Logistics 242 53 55 61 59 227 243
o.w. Ecoporto 551 116 111 117 113 457 457
o.w. STP - Sem Parar/Via Fácil 70 12 - - (0) 12 0
o.w. Others (15) (4) (6) (5) (4) (20) (22)
EBITDA 1,317 334 298 328 335 1,294 1,492
o.w. Toll roads 1,117 300 267 315 319 1,200 1,382
o.w. Logistics 9 4 (1) 2 3 8 17
o.w. Ecoporto 158 34 29 25 25 113 114
o.w. STP - Sem Parar/Via Fácil 38 7 - - (0) 7 0
o.w. Others (4) (10) 4 (15) (12) (33) (22)
Depreciation (263) (76) (79) (80) (83) (318) (357)
Provision for Maintenance (75) (18) (33) (26) (26) (103) (118)
EBIT 972 239 187 219 228 873 1,017
Financial Results (341) (106) (101) (87) (103) (397) (463)
Taxes (231) (45) (34) (51) (46) (176) (188)
Net Income 398 92 52 77 77 298 351
YoY Growth:
Net Revenue 16% 3% -5% 0% 3% 0% 10%
o.w. Toll roads 9% 11% 8% 11% 14% 11% 14%
o.w. Logistics -9% -14% -10% 2% -2% -6% 7%
o.w. Ecoporto 67% -9% -23% -20% -14% -17% 0%
o.w. STP - Sem Parar/Via Fácil 17% -29% - - - -83% NM
o.w. Others 15% 26% 49% 47% 5% 31% 10%
EBITDA 4% 1% -8% -3% 3% -2% 15%
o.w. Toll roads 8% 8% -1% 6% 17% 7% 15%
o.w. Logistics -90% -49% -147% -23% -176% -20% 127%
o.w. Ecoporto 38% -13% -44% -29% -22% -28% 1%
o.w. STP - Sem Parar/Via Fácil 21% -28% - - - -82% NM
o.w. Others -61% 376% -149% 70% -179% 746% -33%
Net Income -5% -18% -40% -30% -13% -25% 18%
Margins:
EBITDA 53.9% 55.0% 52.0% 51.9% 52.1% 52.8% 55.1%
o.w. Toll roads 70.0% 69.6% 64.5% 68.6% 67.2% 67.5% 68.1%
o.w. Logistics 3.9% 7.0% -2.5% 3.8% 5.0% 3.3% 7.0%
o.w. Ecoporto 28.6% 28.9% 26.3% 21.8% 21.9% 24.7% 25.0%
o.w. STP - Sem Parar/Via Fácil 53.6% 56.2% NM NM NM 56.2% NM
o.w. Others 25.5% 227.3% -65.6% 300.0% 266.7% 165.0% 100.0%
EBIT 39.8% 39.4% 32.5% 34.6% 35.6% 35.6% 37.6%
4
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Figure 4. Ecorodovias: Financial Statements, 2013–16E (Millions of Brazilian Reais)
2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E
Income Statement
Net Revenue 2,442 2,453 2,708 2,935
YoY Change (%) 15.7 0.5 10.4 8.4
Cost of Goods Sold - - - -
Gross Profit - - - -
SG&A Expenses - - - -
Operating Profit 970 873 1,017 1,149
YoY Change (%) 1.8 (10.0) 16.5 13.0
Financial Results (341) (397) (463) (512)
Monetary Gain/Loss - - - -
FX Gain/Loss - - - -
Other Financial Gains/Losses - - - -
Other Income/Expenses 0 0 0 0
Equity Income - - - -
Pre-Tax Profit 629 476 554 637
Taxes (230) (176) (188) (217)
Minority Interest (2) (2) (15) (16)
Net Profit 398 298 351 404
YoY Change (%) (5.7) (25.1) 17.7 15.3
Depreciation & Amortization (263) (318) (357) (407)
EBITDA 1,317 1,294 1,492 1,685
YoY Change (%) 8.2 (1.8) 15.2 13.0
Balance Sheet
Total Assets 6,931 7,378 7,578 7,458
Cash and Equivalents 1,260 981 812 587
Accounts Receivable 258 258 258 258
Inventories - - - -
Other Current Assets 89 89 89 89
Property& Plant and Equipment - - - -
Other Long-Term Assets 4,664 5,459 5,829 5,933
Total Liabilities 6,931 7,378 7,578 7,457
Accounts Payable 188 188 188 188
Short-Term Debt 866 942 963 912
Other Current Liabilities 279 279 279 279
Long-Term Debt 3,085 3,356 3,431 3,249
Other Long-Term Liabilities 416 429 507 592
Minority Interest 26 26 26 26
Shareholders' Equity 2,072 2,158 2,184 2,211
Cash Flow
Net Profit 398 298 351 404
Depreciation & Amortization (263) (318) (357) (407)
Other Noncash Items - - - -
Changes in Working Capital 0 0 0 0
Operating Cash Flow 959 963 1,106 1,251
Capital Expenditures (862) (1,113) (726) (511)
Other Investments/(Divestments) - - - -
Change in Debt 666 348 96 (233)
Dividends (666) (298) (351) (404)
Capital Increases/Other 0 270 0 0
Net Cash Flow 285 (279) (169) (225)
Free Cash Flow 537 (67) 155 152
Sources: FactSet, Bloomberg, Santander estimates and company reports.
5
FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
Figure 5. Ecorodovias: Financial Statements, 2013–16E (U.S. Dollars in Millions)
2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E
Income Statement
Net Revenue 1,132 1,062 1,041 1,087
YoY Change (%) 4.8 (6.2) (1.9) 4.4
Cost of Goods Sold - - - -
Gross Profit - - - -
SG&A Expenses - - - -
Operating Profit 450 378 391 426
YoY Change (%) (7.8) (16.0) 3.6 8.8
Financial Results (158) (172) (178) (190)
Monetary Gain/Loss - - - -
FX Gain/Loss - - - -
Other Financial Gains/Losses - - - -
Other Income/Expenses 0 0 0 0
Equity Income - - - -
Pre-Tax Profit 292 206 213 236
Taxes (107) (76) (72) (80)
Minority Interest (1) (1) (6) (6)
Net Profit 184 129 135 150
YoY Change (%) (14.6) (30.1) 4.6 11.0
Depreciation & Amortization (122) (138) (137) (151)
EBITDA 611 560 574 624
YoY Change (%) (2.0) (8.3) 2.4 8.8
Balance Sheet
Total Assets 2,958 2,893 2,860 2,712
Cash and Equivalents 538 385 307 213
Accounts Receivable 110 101 97 94
Inventories - - - -
Other Current Assets 38 35 34 32
Property& Plant and Equipment - - - -
Other Long-Term Assets 1,991 2,141 2,199 2,157
Total Liabilities 2,958 2,893 2,860 2,712
Accounts Payable 80 74 71 68
Short-Term Debt 370 370 364 332
Other Current Liabilities 119 109 105 101
Long-Term Debt 1,317 1,316 1,295 1,182
Other Long-Term Liabilities 178 168 191 215
Minority Interest 11 10 10 9
Shareholders' Equity 884 846 824 804
Cash Flow
Net Profit 184 129 135 150
Depreciation & Amortization (122) (138) (137) (151)
Other Noncash Items - - - -
Changes in Working Capital 0 0 0 0
Operating Cash Flow 444 416 425 463
Capital Expenditures (399) (482) (279) (189)
Other Investments/(Divestments) - - - -
Change in Debt 309 150 37 (86)
Dividends (309) (129) (135) (150)
Capital Increases/Other 0 117 0 0
Net Cash Flow 132 (121) (65) (83)
Free Cash Flow 249 (29) 60 56
Sources: FactSet, Bloomberg, Santander estimates and company reports.
6
Ecorodovias – Three-Year Stock Performance (R$)
B 18.5 H 8.0 H 20.0 H 19.0 H 15.0 H 13.5 UP 15.0
11/14/11 1/23/12 6/28/12 1/3/13 1/9/14 3/21/14 6/10/14
20 28,000
18 26,000
16 24,000
14 22,000
12 20,000
10 18,000
8 16,000
N-11 F-12 M-12 A-12 N-12 F-13 M-13 A-13 N-13 F-14 M-14 A-14 N-14
Ecorodovias (L Axis) IBOVESPA (R Axis)
Sources: FactSet and Santander.
7
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
2014 8