Production Management – PRDH20-2

Session 17 → Waiting Line – Part II (Models) +

Aggregate Production Planning (APP)
M/M/S System

◼ There are S servers and one single QUEUE

◼ First calculate
◼ Average number of customers being served = /

◼ For (/) and S(or M) → Table 18.4 (Page 796-797)

◼ Average number of customers in QUEUE = 𝐿𝑞
◼ Probability of “Zero units” in the SYSTEM = 𝑃0

◼ Average waiting time for a customer who is not

immediately served = 𝑊𝑎 = 1/(S – )
◼ Probability that a customer have to wait after arrival = 𝑃𝑤
= 𝑊𝑞 / 𝑊𝑎
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Maximum Line Length for M/M/S

◼ Desired fraction is the probability that

◼ 𝐿𝑞 will not exceed 𝐿𝑀𝐴𝑋


◼ =
𝑆

(1 – desired fraction)
◼ K=
Lq (1 – )

LN(K)
◼ LMAX =
LN()

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Multiple Server Problems

◼ A shop has two service desks, one at each entrance of the

store. Customers arrive at each service desk at an average
of one every six minutes. The service rate at each service
desk is four minutes per customer.
a. How often (percentage of time) is each service desk idle?
b. What is the probability that both service clerks are busy?
c. What is the probability that both service clerks are idle?
d. How many customers, on average, are waiting in line in
front of each service desk?
e. How much time does a customer spend in front of a desk?
◼ Solve the problem for two counters with ONE queue
◼ Textbook – Problem 1.c (Page 816) → Solve the problem
for two centers, each with one server Dipankar Bose - XLRI
Problems – M/M/S

◼ Textbook – Example 5 (Page 799)

◼ Textbook – Example 7 (Page 801)

◼ Textbook – Problem 18 (Page 819)

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Finite Population – Calculations

◼ Customers → Working/Waiting/Servicing in cycles

◼ Notations
◼ Average Working time = U (Exponential)
◼ Average Servicing time = T (Exponential)
◼ Service Factor = X = T/(T + U)
◼ Total number of customers (Population) = N
◼ Number of Servers = S

◼ For N, X and S(or M) → Table 18.7 (Page 807-809)

◼ Probability of waiting for a customer in QUEUE = D
◼ Efficiency Factor = F = 1 – Fraction waiting in line
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Finite Population – Calculations –
Continued
◼ Number in System = Number Working + Number Waiting
+ Number being Served = N

◼ Average number Working = J = NF(1 – X)

◼ Average number Waiting = L = N(1 – F)
◼ Average number being Served = H = NFX

◼ Average Waiting time = T(1 – F)/XF

◼ Average Downtime = Average waiting time + Service time

◼ Probability of NOT waiting in QUEUE = 1 – D

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Finite Population – Problem

◼ Textbook – Example 10 (Page 806)

◼ Textbook – Problem 10 (Page 817)

◼ Textbook – Problem 11 (Page 818)

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Cost Optimization in Waiting Line

◼ Infinite population
◼ Total cost = Ls × Cost of waiting per customer + S ×
Cost of each server
◼ Finite population
◼ Total cost = N − J × Cost of waiting per customer +
S × Cost of each server

◼ Textbook – Example 6 (Page 800)

◼ Textbook – Example 11 (Page 810)

◼ Textbook – Problem 10.e (Page 817)

◼ Textbook – Problem 11.b (Page 818)
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Average Number Down – Concept –
Not in Syllabus
◼ Average number down = N – J = N – NF(1 – X)
◼ = N[1 – F + XF]

◼ Average Downtime per customer

◼ = T(1 – F)/XF + T = T[1 – F + XF]/XF

◼ T/X = T + U
◼ Total Cycle Time= T + U + T(1 – F)/XF = [1/F]T/X = T/XF

◼ Total downtime per time unit

◼ = (Average downtime per customer × N)/Total Cycle Time
◼ = Average Number Down
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General Model – Problem

◼ You are planning for six tellers in a bank. Tellers take 15

minutes per customer with a standard deviation of 7
minutes. Customers arrive one every three minutes
according to an exponential distribution. Every customer
that arrives eventually gets serviced.
◼ On average how many customers would be waiting in
line?
◼ On average how long would a customer spend in the
bank?

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Arrival and Service Rates do not follow
Particular Distribution
◼ Known
◼ 𝑋𝑎 = Mean Inter-arrival time
◼ 𝑋𝑠 = Mean Service time
◼ 𝑆𝑎 = Standard deviation of Inter-arrival time sample
◼ 𝑆𝑠 = Standard deviation of Service time sample
◼ Then
𝑆𝑎
◼ Coefficient of variation of Inter-arrival time = 𝐶𝑎 =
𝑋𝑎
𝑆𝑠
◼ Coefficient of variation of service time = 𝐶𝑠 =
𝑋𝑠
1
◼ Customer arrival rate =  =
𝑋𝑎
1
◼ Customer service rate =  =
𝑋𝑠
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Arrival and Service Rates do not follow
Particular Distribution – Continued
◼ Also

◼ Utilization of the server =  =
𝑆
 2(𝑆+1) 𝐶𝑎2 +𝐶𝑠2
◼ Average number in QUEUE = 𝐿𝑞 = ×
1− 2
left part numerator as  to the power
◼ Read 2(𝑆 + 1)

◼ Average number in SYSTEM = 𝐿𝑞 +

𝐿𝑞
◼ Average time waiting in QUEUE =

𝐿𝑠
◼ Average time waiting in SYSTEM =

◼ Can we use 𝑳𝒒 formula for M/M/1 and M/D/1?
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Topic: Aggregate Production
Planning (APP)

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Purpose of Aggregate Production
Planning (APP)
◼ Long range forecast – Capacity planning
◼ Medium range forecast – Aggregate production planning

◼ Pure strategies
◼ Changing inventory level
◼ Introducing overtime
◼ Changing workforce level (Hiring and Laying off)
◼ Subcontracting
◼ Influencing demand
◼ Mixed strategies

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Aggregate Planning Inputs

◼ Resources
◼ Workforce/Facilities
◼ Demand forecast
◼ Policies
◼ Overtime/ Inventory levels/ Back orders/
Subcontracting
◼ Costs
◼ Inventory carrying/Back orders/Inventory changes
◼ Hiring/firing/Overtime
◼ Subcontracting

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Costs Associated with Decisions

◼ Regular payroll vs. Overtime cost

◼ Hiring and firing cost

◼ Inventory vs. Backorder/Shortage cost

◼ Subcontracting cost

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Case – Macpherson Refrigeration

◼ Go through Excel file uploaded

◼ Use the data given in Excel file and use the data to get
values in
◼ Exhibit 1
◼ Why production at each month = 8400?
◼ Exhibit 2
◼ Why employee in each month = 199?
◼ Exhibit 3

◼ For a mixed approach

◼ Identify the important constraints
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