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Factors that Influence the History and Future of Tourism
There are various influences of the history and future direction of tourism. Some are natural in their origin
while others are the result of human activity. All of these affect the future of tourism and the ways it can be
planned and managed. These are the following:
Factors
Global Warming
It is an increase in the earth's
average atmospheric
temperature that causes
corresponding changes in climate
and that may result from the
greenhouse effect. Its effects are
the major challenges to the
advancement of tourism in the
next 50 years. In 2008, it was
accepted by several scientists
that global warming is occurring.
The increase in extreme weather
conditions over the past 10 years
have been attributed to global
warming.
Natural Disasters
This includes volcanic eruptions,
storms, and flooding. Airline
disruptions caused by storms
result in delays and cancellation
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Local Context International Context
The effect of global warming has A major global consequence of
various consequences in Metro global warming is the melting of
Manila. The Mall Of Asia, the both polar ice caps. The global
United States (US) Embassy, and effect will be a rise in sea level. If
the entire reclamation in Pasay this occurs, it is possible that low-
City, with its first class hotels and lying countries and small island
casinos, will be under water with nations will be flooded. This may
just a 2°C rise in global result in the disappearance of
temperature. With a 4°C rise, coastal tourism in these parts of
Manila City would be awash the world. Mountain areas will
completely, including the lower also be affected by global
reaches of Makati City (West of warming since there will be less
Osmeňa Highway) and parts of snow in areas where it used to
Paraňaque (Nomad Sports Club). fall in huge amounts. The result
The Ninoy Aquino International is the decline or disappearance of
Airport (NAIA) would be affected snow-based tourism activities.
by a 2°C rise and half submerged
with a 4°C rise.
In other notable tourist spots in
the Philippines, Boracay will lose
its beach at 2°C and would be
split into two (2) smaller islands
at 4°C temperature increase, but
the airport at Caticlan will
disappear. Subic Bay at 2°C will
lose little, except that the
dolphins at Ocean Adventure
may be allowed to swim free. But
at 4°C rise, the main hotel and
entertainment areas between the
main gate and Moonbay Marina
would be under water. Puerto
Princesa would be significantly
affected with any temperature
increase above 2°C and would
lose many of its prominent
tourist attractions, including
Snake Island and St. Paul’s
Underground River.
Flooding and landslides caused by Some of the major natural
typhoons are the common disasters were Hurricane Katrina
natural disasters that affect in New Orleans, USA and the
tourist arrivals in the Philippines. tsunami in Phuket, Thailand.
In Palawan, when typhoon These events caused mass
Yolanda ravaged its northern disruptions in domestic and
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Factors
in weather affected locations. In
addition, affected airlines suffer
negative economic impact
because delays and grounding
cause airplanes to be
misallocated for the start of the
next round of flights.
Additionally, the occurrence of
mudslides also disrupt business
enterprises, destroy landscapes,
and result in huge clean-up costs.
Health Issues
Fear of diseases reduces travel
demand. Most travelers avoid
areas that have high health risks.
Diseases spread more rapidly due
to travel, particularly through
international aviation such as the
bird flu virus. Other diseases that
affect tourism are Acquired
Immune Deficiency Syndrome
(AIDS), Severe Acute Respiratory
Syndrome (SARS), and foot and
mouth disease.
Terrorist Attacks
The threat of terrorism is a
somber factor the travel industry
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Local Context
part, visitors of Coron had to
check the status of the hotels
where they made a booking, as
many suffered extensive typhoon
damage and are running on
generator power. The high-end
Amanpulo Resort in Pamalican
island, suffered a direct hit and
had to close down after Yolanda
struck on November 8, 2013. But
it has since reopened, and said
that their greatest challenge has
been restoring landlines,
internet, and mobile reception to
the same level as prior to the
typhoon. While El Nido Resorts’
biggest challenge was cleaning
the debris after the powerful
storm, which fortunately left the
lagoons, white sand beaches, and
limestone cliffs unharmed.
In Boracay, typhoon Yolanda led
the area to a loss of electricity
and internet facilities, which
disrupted tourist services. Images
of the devastation after the
typhoon in the news also
prompted some foreign visitors
to cancel their trips. Boracay
dropped by 20% of its tourist
arrivals that month.
The tourism sector of Lingayen,
Pangasinan fell back in 2014, due
to the cancellation of bookings
because of a report on a
supposed flesh-eating disease
spreading in certain places –
which turned out to be false.
This shows how vital health
issues are that it can affect
tourism arrivals such as this.
Terrorist attacks have been
causing a major strain to the
Philippines’ travel and tourism
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International Context
international tourism. New
Orleans lost USD15 million per
day due to the lack of tourist
arrivals while tourist arrivals in
Phuket went down by 44.7%
after the first four (4) months.
Other examples include
Hurricane Maria in the Dominican
Republic and an earthquake in
Mexico both in September 2017.
Additional disasters include the
monsoon flooding in Bangladesh,
mudslide in Colombia, and
hurricane Irma in the USA and
Caribbean, which all took place in
2017 alone.
In the United States and Canada,
AIDS was brought by a flight
attendant who contracted the
disease in Africa. SARS spread
rapidly throughout Asia and
Canada. Due to this SARS scare,
the hotel occupancy rate in Hong
Kong went down from 82% to
5%. Also, the foot and mouth
disease spread from the United
Kingdom throughout Europe.
This caused their tourist sector to
lost 2.7 to 3.2 billion pounds due
to the postponement and
cancellation of trips.
The bombing of World Trade
Center in New York in September
11, 2001 had a long-term effect
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 TH1703

Factors Local Context International Context

is forced to face. Its considerable
media coverage influences
travelers’ behavior and decisions
which reduces the flow of visitors
locally and globally.
sector. Whenever there are
threats of or actual terrorist
attacks, local tourism players
suffer immediate decline in
business as guests cancel trips
and hotel bookings. In the World
Economic Forum’s (WEF) Travel
and Tourism Competitiveness
Index 2017, the Philippines slid
five (5) places to the 79th spot out
of 136 countries. The country got
an overall score of 3.6 and of the
14 pillars considered, it was on
safety and security that the
country got its lowest rank. The
Philippines landed at the 126th
place, the bottom end of the
spectrum. The Philippines is
lagging behind all the other
Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) countries when
in the safety and security aspect,
scoring way below the regional
average for that pillar.
on the global tourism industry.
One (1) of these is the
bankruptcy of the American
Airlines in 2002 due to the
decline in the number of
passengers. Additionally, back in
October 2002, tourists became
the major target of terrorists.
During this time in Bali,
Indonesia, two (2) night clubs
with several international tourists
were bombed by terrorists who
were linked by media to the
groups that bombed the World
Trade Center. As a result, a large
number of foreign tourists
cancelled or postponed their
visit. The reasons for
cancellation were the travel
warnings issued by their
respective governments, the
televised confessions of the
suicide bombers, and the on-
going hunt for terrorists in
Indonesia.

In spite of the negative factors that affect the future direction of tourism, it is still safe to assume that tourism
will increase on a global scale provided that careful planning and management policies are adopted and
applied. The success of tourism planning and development will depend on the political will that it is possible
and desirable to plan and develop tourism.
References:
Lansangan-Cruz, Z. (2001). Tourism planning and development. Mandaluyong City: National Bookstore Inc.
Dictionary. (2017). Global Warming. Retrieved on November 29, 2017 from: http://www.dictionary.com/browse/global-
warming
Get Wet Asia. (2017). Climate change: Impact on Philippine tourism. Retrieved on November 29, 2017 from:
http://www.getwet-asia.com/philippines/climate-change-impact-on-philippine-tourism/
Philstar. (2014). Pangasinan tourism hurt by false disease report. Retrieved on November 30, 2017 from:
http://www.philstar.com/nation/2014/02/27/1294825/pangasinan-tourism-hurt-false-disease-report
Business Inquirer. (2017). Terror threats make it harder for PH to become key tourist destination. Retrieved on November
30, 2017 from: http://business.inquirer.net/230330/terror-threats-make-harder-ph-become-key-tourist-destination
London School of Economics. (2017). How the fear spreads. Retrieved on November 30, 2017 from:
http://www.lse.ac.uk/News/Research-Highlights/World-regions-and-development/Terrorism-and-tourism
Telegraph. (2017). The deadliest natural disasters of 2017. Retrieved on January 31, 2018 from:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/stem-awards/design/deadliest-natural-disasters/

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