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Raising a new Generation of Leaders

PROBABILITY AND
STATISTICAL
MODULE TWO

By: Dr. O. A. ODETUNMIBI

SAMPLING METHODS AND
CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM

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 INTRODUCTION
The art of sampling is a very valuable tool in collecting
data for planning and decision making.

Dealing with complete population under investigation

most times, difficult, stressful, time wasting and capital
intensive, hence the need for sampling.
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POPULATION: It is the aggregate of all units in a
.

target area of interest. It is refers to as the aggregate

of objects or individuals from each of whom we desire
to take some measurement of interest.
The population may consist of a finite number of units
like a population of students in a university or an
infinite like the length of life of electric bulbs.
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Given a population of numerical values, we are usually
interested in some quantities or attributes like the mean,
the variance, the total etc, which are calculable from the
population values.
Such a quantity is called population parameter but
when the value of the parameter is not known and access
to the population is not readily available, a sample is
taken from the population.
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SAMPLE: A sample is simply a subset of a population
selected to meet specific objective. A sample must
be a true representative of the population from
which it is drawn.
It is also a known fact that a carefully selected sample
can produce results that are very close to the
corresponding population values.
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THE NEED FOR SAMPLING:
a). When population under study is infinite,
sampling is the only possible procedure.
b) Even when the population is finite but huge. For
example the population of Nigeria, China, India etc.
c). Also when the measurement of the population
often requires the destruction of the elements in it.
e). It should be noted that for many sets of data, the
population is not accessible.
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 SAMPLING TECHNIQUES
There are two major types of sampling techniques, which
are: Probability and Non probability Sampling.
A) PROBABILITY SAMPLING TECHNIQUE: This is a
technique in which samples drawn from a population are
done in a way that every element in the population has a
known and non-zero probability of being selected.
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Under probability sampling technique, the
following sampling techniques would be
considered:
1. Simple Random Sampling:
In simple random sampling, every unit in the
population has the same chance of being selected
in the sample.
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2. Stratified Random Sampling: In stratified
random sampling, the population can be divided
into some distinct groups called strata in such a
way that all units in a group are as homogenous as
possible with respect to some characteristics of
interest. Example: income groups – upper, middle,
lower class, people of similar cultural background.
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3. Systematic Sampling: This requires a sampling
frame where each of the units in the population bears a
serial number. The sample interval k is first determined
such that: k  N
n
Afterwards, we select the first sample unit, say m from 1
to k by random sampling. Examples are, blackberry pin
number, telephone directory, bank verification numbers,
etc. 11
4. Cluster Sampling: In cluster sampling, the units in the
population are divided into clusters (not necessarily
homogenous) on the basis of geographical or attribute
proximity. The next step consists of choosing a random
sample of clusters to be studied and all units in a
selected cluster are studied.
The main difference between cluster sampling and
stratified sampling is that in cluster sampling, the cluster
is treated as the sampling unit, so analysis is done on a
population of clusters (at least in the first stage).

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5. Multi-stage Sampling: This is a complex form of
cluster sampling, but instead of using all the
elements contained in the selected clusters, the
researcher randomly selects elements from each
cluster. Constructing the clusters is the first stage.
Deciding what elements within the cluster to use is
the second stage. If only two stages are done, it
becomes two-stage sampling. Examples:
University – private – Covenant. Nigeria –
Southwest – Ogun state – Ota etc.
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B. NON-PROBABILITY SAMPLING
TECHNIQUES
This is the reverse case of probability sampling. It
does not involve random selection and the
probability of selection is unknown. Some non-
probability techniques include:

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1. Quota Sampling
This is a sampling method with no definite probability
law associated with the process which is aimed at
providing some ‘balance’ in the selected sample. It is
purely deterministic. For example, federal character,
federal allocation, admission process in government
schools etc.
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2. Convenience Sampling
In convenience sampling, samples are selected
because they are accessible to the researcher.
Samples are chosen simply because they are easy
to recruit or obtain. This technique is considered
easiest, cheapest and least time consuming.

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3. Judgmental or Purposive Sampling
In this of sampling method, subjects are chosen to be
part of the sample with a specific purpose in mind. With
judgmental sampling, the researcher believes that some
subjects are better fit for the research compared to other
individuals. This is the reason why they are purposively
chosen as subjects. Example is expert interview, beauty
contest etc.
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 CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM:
The central limit theorem states that for a population with a
mean µ and standard deviation σ, the sampling distribution
of the means of all possible samples of size n generated from
the population will be approximately normally distributed –
with the mean of the sampling distribution equal to µ and the
standard deviation equal to  assuming that the sample
n
size n is sufficiently large.
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Let X1, X2, …..Xn be a random sample from a
distribution with mean µ and finite variance σ2.
Let X n represent the mean of a sample of size n,
then:
Xn  
N (0,1) as n  
 2

n
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The remarkable thing about this theorem is that the
parent population need not be normal. All it
requires for X n to be asymptotically normal is that
the population has finite mean and variance and for
as long as n grows large, normality is ensured for X n

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EXAMPLE I:
Let X denotes the number of flaws in a one length
of copper wire. The probability mass function of X
is presented in the following table.
X 0 1 2 3
p(X = x) 0.48 0.39 0.12 0.01

One hundred wires were sampled from this population.

What is the probability that the average number of flaws
per wire in this sample is less than 0.5?
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EXAMPLE II
At a large university, the mean age of the students
is 22.3 years and the standard deviation is 4 years.
A random sample of 64 students is drawn. What is
the probability that the average age of these
students is greater than 23 years?

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EXAMPLE III
Bottles filled by a certain machine are supposed to
contain 12oz of liquid. In fact the fill volume is random
with mean 12.01oz and standard deviation of 0.2oz.
What is the probability that the mean volume of a
random sample of 144 bottles is less than 12oz?

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EXAMPLE IV
The breaking strength (in kg/mm) for a certain type
of fabric has mean 1.86 and standard deviation
0.27. A random sample of 80 pieces of fabric is
drawn. What is the probability that the sample
mean breaking strength is less than 1.8kg/mm?

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ASSIGNMENT
The amount of warpage in a type of wafer used in
the manufacture of integrated circuits has mean
1.3mm and standard deviation 0.1mm. A random
sample of 200 wafers is drawn. What is the
probability that the sample mean warpage
exceeds 1.305mm?
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