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Abstract—This paper proposes a stochastic framework for Installation cost for PV/wind.
optimal sizing and reliability analysis of a hybrid power system Load/modified load at time .
including the renewable resources and energy storage system. Interrupted/shifted load at time .
Uncertainties of wind power, photovoltaic (PV) power, and load
are stochastically modeled using autoregressive moving average Cost of operation and maintenance for PV.
(ARMA). A pattern search-based optimization method is used in Cost of operation and maintenance for wind.
conjunction with a sequential Monte Carlo simulation (SMCS) to Parameter in the functional form for the .
minimize the system cost and satisfy the reliability requirements. Power rating for the energy storage.
The SMCS simulates the chronological behavior of the system and Power of the energy storage at time .
calculates the reliability indices from a series of simulated experi-
ments. Load shifting strategies are proposed to provide some Parameter in the functional form for the .
flexibility and reduce the mismatch between the renewable genera- Ratio, diffuse radiation in hour/diffuse in day.
tion and heating ventilation and air conditioning loads in a hybrid Geometric factor, the ratio of beam radiation on
power system. Different percentages of load shifting and their the tilted surface to that on a horizontal surface.
potential impacts on the hybrid power system reliability/cost anal- Storage system capacity.
ysis are evaluated. Using a compromise-solution method, the best
compromise between the reliability and cost is realized for the SW, Sk, SL Simulated wind speed, clearness index, load.
hybrid power system. Stored energy at time .
Wind speed.
Index Terms—Load shifting strategy, sequential Monte Carlo
simulation (SMCS), stochastic modeling. , and Cut-in, cut-out, and rated wind speed.
Sample for the th simulation and th scheduling
NOMENCLATURE period.
th stochastic input variable.
, Order of the autoregressive moving average PV/wind capacity installation.
(ARMA) model. Percentage of load shifting.
Area for the photovoltaic (PV) array. Power–electronic interface efficiency for PV/wind
th decision criterion. generation.
Capital cost of energy/power for storage system. Storage system round-trip efficiency.
Cost of hybrid power system. PV array efficiency.
Self-discharge rate for the energy storage. Moving average/autoregressive coefficient of the
EE Expected energy demand. ARMA model.
ENS Energy not supplied. , Mean and standard deviation for clearness index.
EENS Expected energy not supplied. , Mean and standard deviation for the load.
EIR Energy index of reliability. , Mean and standard deviation for the wind speed.
PDF for the th simulated random variable. Satisfaction level for the th decision criterion.
Net power generated by PV. Reference level of achievement for the th
Net power generated by wind. decision criterion.
Electric power generated by PV for time . Reflectance of the ground.
Electric power generated by wind for time . Set of tradeoff points.
Rated wind power.
Power generated by PV.
Power generated by wind.
I. INTRODUCTION
Extra-terrestrial radiation on a horizontal surface.
ENEWABLE resources in the United States have become
Manuscript received March 12, 2013; revised June 21, 2013, August 27,
2013, and October 11, 2013; accepted October 23, 2013. Date of publication
R an important portion of generation mix with a capacity of
12.7% of net electricity generation at the end of 2011. State
December 18, 2013; date of current version March 18, 2014. initiatives, including federal production tax credit and renewable
The authors are with the University of Nevada, Reno, NV 89557 USA, and portfolio standards, and the climate change concerns have
also with the University of Washington, Bothell, WA 98011 USA (e-mail:
aarabali@unr.edu; mghofrani@uwb.edu; etezadi@unr.edu; fadali@unr.edu).
resulted in the growth of renewable generation capacity of
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TSTE.2013.2288083 approximately 39% of the national electric capacity additions
1949-3029 © 2013 IEEE. Personal use is permitted, but republication/redistribution requires IEEE permission.
See http://www.ieee.org/publications_standards/publications/rights/index.html for more information.
364 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, VOL. 5, NO. 2, APRIL 2014
in 2011 [1]. The stochastic nature of intermittent renewable simulation (SMCS) method is used to generate data in a time
energy resources complicates their integration of operation and sequence and then calculate reliability indices from the simulated
planning purposes. A hybrid power system that is composed experiments. The SMCS approach simulates the chronological
of energy storage and renewable generation can alleviate the performance of the system by generating sequential samples of
issues associated with the renewable power supply fluctuations. system states for numerous time intervals. This provides a better
Storage of the renewable power generation in excess of the load representation of the hybrid system’s behavior for reliability
makes it accessible for later release when the renewable genera- analysis when compared to the analytical methods or nonsequen-
tion is insufficient to supply the load [2]. This offsets the tial MCS used in the earlier work [3], [4], [9]–[14]. A direct
renewable energy variations and makes the renewable generation search tool, pattern search (PS), is utilized to solve the non-
integration more reliable. This is particularly true for flexible smooth problem of optimal sizing for the hybrid power system.
heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) loads which The traditional derivative-based optimization methods cannot be
can be deferred and adopted based on the renewable energy used here due to the terms such as “max” and “absolute value”
fluctuations. However, a large number of random variables and that are utilized to calculate a dependent variable in the objective
parameters in a hybrid power system makes its optimal design function. In order to improve the computational efficiency and
more difficult [3]. This optimization includes optimal compo- speed up the search process, the initial solution is generated using
nent-sizing for the hybrid system as well as the assessment of genetic algorithm (GA). A sensitivity analysis based on the
system performance to realize the best compromise between the epsilon-constraint approach and compromise-solution method
cost and reliability. The reliability study is based on stochastic is used to realize the best tradeoff between the cost and reliability
models to consider the uncertainties of the hybrid power system for the hybrid power system. Our optimization gives the eco-
such as equipment failures and random variations in both nomical combination of PV and wind generation for satisfying
generation and load [4]. reliability and other physical constraints.
The design, simulation, and optimization of the isolated hybrid Section II explains the PS optimization and SMCS methodol-
power systems have been studied in [5]–[8]. References [5] and [6] ogy and the physical or operational constraints on the hybrid
utilized practical and experimental estimates for component- power system parameters. Also, ARMA models of PV and wind
sizing and performance evaluation without optimizing their power, HVAC load as well as our sensitivity analysis are pre-
parameter values. Optimization techniques are employed in [7] sented in Section II. Different scenarios and their simulation
and [8] to design and operate the stand-alone hybrid power results are given in Section III. Section IV presents the conclusion.
systems. However, none of these studies evaluated the reliability
of the hybrid power systems for the grid-independent applications. II. METHODOLOGY
Several studies have proposed probabilistic frameworks for opti- The main objective of this paper is to match the HVAC loads
mal sizing and reliability analysis of hybrid power systems [3], [4], with the renewable energy sources without the need for supple-
[9]–[14]. References [3], [4], [9], and [10] employed analytical mentary conventional generations or grid-connection strategies.
methods to mathematically model the hybrid power system and This will expand the use of renewable energy to reduce green-
used direct solutions to evaluate the reliability indices from its house gases associated with the conventional generation. An
model. However, increasing the number of random parameters isolated stand-alone hybrid energy system including storage,
in a hybrid power system complicates the mathematical computa- wind, and PV generation is designed to economically and
tions of the reliability indices. In addition, the analytical methods reliably supply the HVAC load. Load shifting is used to provide
do not properly represent the random nature of hybrid power the demand flexibility and meet the objective.
systems and their component failures [11]. Monte Carlo simula-
tion (MCS) randomly samples the system states, irrespective of A. ARMA Model for Wind Speed, Solar Irradiance, and Load
event chronologies, to provide a detailed knowledge of the
probability distributions of reliability indices. MCS has been used The SMCS requires sampling from sequences of distributions
to evaluate the hybrid power system reliability [11]–[14]. The to chronologically simulate the random behavior of the system
utilities may have some agreements with the consumers to shift [16]. Time series methods are used to provide such sequences and
part of their HVAC loads during peak load hours. This agreement model the uncertainties for the sequential analysis. Several refer-
will provide the customer with economic incentives and prevent ences used ARMA as a time series model to characterize random
the need for additional conventional generation during these peak variations of the wind and solar generation. An th-order auto-
hours. For example, NV Energy’s cool share program is associated regressive (AR) and th-order moving average (MA) model
with approximately 145 MW remote controlled air conditioning represents the long-term wind/solar/load characteristics [17], [18]
load. These loads can be dispatched by NV Energy through “raise/
lower” thermostat commands as needed [15]. A smart strategy is
required to implement the load shifting and reduce the mismatch
between the renewable generation and HVAC loads. None of where is the white noise with zero mean, zero autocorrelation,
these studies investigated load shifting and its potential impact on and unity variance. Ten years of historical hourly wind speed,
the hybrid system reliability/cost analysis. clearness index, and load data are used to calculate the AR and
This paper proposes a stochastic optimization method to MA coefficients and obtain a statistical model that accounts for a
optimally size the hybrid system components while satisfying long-term scheduling period. This model uses the randomly
the system reliability requirements. A sequential Monte Carlo generated value of and the previous values of and to provide
ARABALI et al.: STOCHASTIC PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT AND SIZING FOR A HYBRID POWER SYSTEM OF SOLAR/WIND/ENERGY STORAGE 365
a time series representation for and generate hourly samples Assuming an efficiency of for the power–electronic
for the 1-year scheduling period. Since wind, PV, and load follow interface, the net PV power output is
the specified patterns and the utilized 10-year data are more likely
to cover all the states that may occur for wind, PV, and load
profiles, the modeling technique properly represents the system’s
behavior for the scheduling period. The time series ( ) is shifted The efficiency curves of the converters are used to calculate
using the mean and scaled using the standard deviation of the and [22], [23].
historical data to obtain hourly data for wind speed, clearness
index, and load [19] B. Optimization Problem
The wind and PV capacity installations and are
multiplied by the normalized renewable generation to represent
the electric power generated by renewable resources. These
parameters as well as the power rating and capacity of the storage
system are included in the objective function to minimize the sum
The simulated wind speed is used to calculate the wind power
of installation, operation, and maintenance costs of the hybrid
output [20]
energy system.
The optimization problem can be formulated as follows:
TABLE I
INSTALLATION COSTS OF WIND AND PV GENERATION AND VALUES OF THE SYSTEM
PARAMETERS [3], [11], [22], [23], [34], [35]
TABLE II
WIND, PV, AND LOAD ARMA PARAMETERS
Fig. 4. PDFs for the installed storage, wind and PV capacities, storage power, and
cost of the hybrid power system.
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assessment of small autonomous power systems with solar and wind energy Amirsaman Arabali (S’11) received the B.Sc. degree in electrical engineering
sources,” IEEE Trans. Energy Convers., vol. 25, no. 2, pp. 535–545, from Semnan University, Semnan, Iran, and the M.Sc. degree from Sharif
Jun. 2010. University of Technology, Tehran, Iran, in 2005 and 2010, respectively. He is
[15] Cool Share for Southern Nevada [Online]. Available: http://www. currently pursuing the Ph.D. degree at the University of Nevada, Reno, NV, USA.
nvenergy.com/home/saveenergy/rebates/coolshare.cfm. His research interests include power systems operation and planning, power
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ac.uk/~doucet/samsi_course.html.
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“Prediction of global solar irradiance based on time series analysis: Appli- from Amir-Kabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran, and the M.Sc. degree
cation to solar thermal power plants energy production planning,” from University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran, in 2005 and 2008, respectively.
Sol. Energy, vol. 84, no. 10, pp. 1772–1781, Oct. 2010. He is currently an Assistant Professor at the University of Washington, Bothell,
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wind integrated power systems reliability evaluation considering wind renewable energy, and large scale integration of wind power generation.
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and S. Conti, “Adequacy evaluation of distribution system including wind/ State University, Las Cruces, NM, USA, in 1974.
solar DG during different modes of operation,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., From 1975 to 1979, he worked as an Assistant Professor of electrical
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[22] A Comparison of Power Inverters by OUTBACK, SMA, FRONIUS and NM, USA. From 1979 to 1983, he worked as a Senior Protection Engineer at
XANTREX [Online]. Available: http://www.ecodirect.com/Solar-Power- Arizona Public Service Company, Phoenix, AZ, USA. In 1983, he joined the
Inverter-Comparison-s/247.htm. faculty of the Electrical Engineering Department at the University of Nevada,
[23] Green World Investor [Online]. Available: http://www.greenworldinvestor. Reno, NV, USA. His current interest is in power system protection, large-scale
com/topics/solar-renewable-energy-greeninvest/solar-inverters/. systems, fuzzy control, neural network applications, and renewable energy.
[24] T. Mosher, “Economic valuation of energy storage coupled with photovol-
taic: Current technologies and future projections,” M.Sc. dissertation, Dept.
Aeronautics and Astronautics Massachusetts Inst. Technology, Cambridge,
MA, USA, Jun. 2010.
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transfer capability based on Monte Carlo method with sequential simula- Mohammed Sami Fadali (SM’91) received the Ph.D. degree from University of
tion,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 484–492, Feb. 2007. Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA, in 1980.
[26] R. A. Gonzalez-Fernandez and A. M. Leite da Silva, “Reliability assessment From 1983 to 1985, he was a Postdoctoral Fellow at Colorado State University,
of time-dependent systems via sequential cross-entropy Monte Carlo Fort Collins, CO, USA. In 1994, he was a Visiting Professor at Oakland
simulation,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 2381–2389, University, Rochester, MI, USA. He is currently a Professor of electrical
Nov. 2011. engineering at the University of Nevada, Reno, NV, USA. His research interests
[27] N. R. Godha, S. R. Deshmukh, and R. V. Dagade, “Time sequential Monte include robust control, fuzzy-logic control, renewable energy systems, random
Carlo simulation for evaluation of reliability indices of power distribution signals, and fault detection.