28/10/2020

FROM LINES TO LOOPS:

THINKING SYSTEMICALLY

A QUICK TAKE
Q3: What are the difficulties
you encountered when
constructing the problem tree
diagram?

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CONFUSION WITH ARROWS

The cause should be placed on the nock.

The effect should be placed on the tip (arrowhead).

NOCK TIP

CAUSE EFFECT

CAUSE-AND-EFFECT CORRELATION

We should ask ourselves, “Is the effect the direct resultant of the cause?”

SPREAD OF CLOSURE OF
COVID-19 BUSINESSES

SPREAD OF IMPOSITION OF CLOSURE OF

COVID-19 QUARANTINE POLICIES BUSINESSES

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CONJECTURES THAT NEED BACK-UP

BEWARE OF JUMPING TO
Some of you inferred that the “Hopeline CONCLUSIONS QUICKLY.
spread of Covid-19 results to hotline, a Alternative
suicides. suicide Spread of
Covid-19
Containment
and lockdown
means of
lesson delivery
prevention and
crisis
intervention
Modular Increase in suicide
In the explanation part (write- helpline, education rates (?)
up), it’s better to back it up reports a 200%
with available data or sources rise in calls in
Linear thinking is arriving at a conclusion based
April due to
that will support your claim. on what we see on the surface without
high anxiety. systemically analyzing the situation underneath.

Realignment
Containment of funds from
policies infrastructure
and education to Use of alternative
Rising number health care modes of
of deaths spending lesson delivery

Increase in Drop in health School

infection rates spending closures

Spread of Covid-19
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Delays and/or
difficulty in
producing
learners’ materials
Realignment
Containment of funds from
policies infrastructure
and education to
health care Use of alternative
Rising number modes of
of deaths spending
lesson delivery

Increase in Drop in health School

infection rates spending closures

Spread of Covid-19
7

NATIONAL
BUDGET
REALIGNMENT TO
FUND COVID-19
RESPONSE
PROGRAMS

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Commission on Human
Rights ₱37 million
Presidential
Communications ₱25 million
Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH)

Operations Office
National Economic and
Development ₱484.3 million
Authority
Commission on Higher Education (CHED)

Department of
Transportation ₱8.8 billion
State Universities and Colleges (SUCs)

Department of Trade
and Industry ₱4.1 billion
Department of Education (DepEd)

Department of Tourism ₱824.4 million

Department of
National Defense ₱6.7 billion
Department of Justice ₱78.6 million
Department of the
Interior and Local ₱3.1 billion
Government
• ₱121.9 billion

• ₱21.9 billion

• ₱13.9 billion

• ₱7.6-billion
Department of
Information and
Communications ₱6.2 billion
Technology
REALIGNED FROM
Department of Human
Settlements and Urban ₱250.5 million
Development
Department of Foreign
Affairs ₱378.8 million
Department of
Environment and ₱68.7 million)
Natural Resources
Department of
Agriculture
₱11.7 billion)

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REALIGNED TO

Department of
Department of Social Amelioration
Department of Department of Social Welfare
Labor and Program (SAP) for
Finance Health and
Employment vulnerable
Development

Wage subsidies for

small businesses
+₱35.3 +₱1.9 +₱1.5 +₱165.2
billion billion billion billion
Healthcare response
against the disease

11

Delays and/or
difficulty in
producing
learners’ materials
Realignment
of funds from
infrastructure
and education to
health care Use of alternative
spending modes of
lesson delivery

Drop in health School

spending closures
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Drop in Decrease in
quality of enrollment rate
instruction

Delays and/or
difficulty in
producing
learners’ materials
Realignment
of funds from
infrastructure
and education to
health care Use of alternative
spending modes of
lesson delivery
13

Ill-equipped
work force

Drop in Decrease in
quality of enrollment rate
instruction

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Inability to
compete in the
job market

Ill-equipped
work force

Drop in
Decrease in
quality of
enrollment rate
instruction
15

Delays and/or
Suspension of difficulty in
economic activities producing
learners’ materials
Realignment
Containment of funds from
policies infrastructure
and education to
health care Use of alternative
Rising number modes of
of deaths spending
lesson delivery

Increase in Drop in health School

infection rates spending closures

Spread of Covid-19
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Supply Rise in rates of

shortage underemployment
and unemployment

Suspension of
economic activities
Realignment
Containment of funds from
policies infrastructure
and education to
Rising number health care
of deaths spending

Increase in Drop in health

17 spending

Drop in
consumption
spending

Price
increase

Supply Rise in rates of

shortage underemployment
and unemployment

Suspension of
economic activities
18 Realignment
 28/10/2020

Economic
recession

Bankruptcies
Price
control
Drop in
consumption
spending

Price
increase

19

Increase in
government debt
Market
failure
Budget deficit due to
Economic unrealized
recession government revenue

Bankruptcies
Price
control
Drop in
consumption
spending
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Cuts in government
spending

Long-term
debt servicing

Increase in
government debt
Market
failure
Budget deficit due to
Economic unrealized
recession government revenue

Bankruptcies
21

Lower public investment

in community development
and human capital

Cuts in government
spending

Long-term
debt servicing

Increase in
government debt
Market
failure
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Increase
in poverty
levels

Lower public investment

in community development
and human capital

Cuts in government
spending

Long-term
debt servicing

Increase in
government debt
Market
failure
Budget deficit due to
Economic unrealized
recession government revenue

Bankruptcies
Price
control Inability to
compete in the
Drop in job market
consumption
spending
Ill-equipped
23

Effect
Increase
in poverty
levels

Lower public investment

in community development
and human capital
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25

With linear thinking, some

It fails to show interconnections
factors remain hidden and
of variables with each other.
unseen.

There are some variables above

and beneath the core problem
We see only the food chain of
that are indeed connected with
problems.
the variables of the other
branches.

THE PROBLEM WITH THE PROBLEM TREE

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35

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AGAIN!

 Our concept of cause

and effect is limited to
straight lines.
 We tend to forget that B
is not necessarily the
result of A. When in fact
A is also the result of B.

37

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AND THE CAUSE OF

THE SPREAD?

39

GOVERNMENT NEGLECT (?)

If the cause of the spread is, indeed,
government neglect, then what
caused government neglect?
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LET’S RECONSTRUCT THE TIMELINE

41

Dec. 31,
2019: China January 23:
alerts the China issues a
World Health lockdown for
Organization millions of
of 27 cases of people in
“viral Wuhan and
pneumonia” in January 15: Hubei as the
the central city Japan confirms death toll rises
of Wuhan. its first case. to 18.

January 13: A January 20: January 24:

Chinese South Korea The first cases
woman is confirms its in Europe are
quarantined in first case. reported in
Thailand, the France.
first detection
of the virus
outside China.

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January 25:
The Research
Institute for
Tropical January 30: February 1:
Medicine The World The United
began Health States,
conducting Organization Singapore,
confirmatory declared Covid- Russia and February 2,
tests on a 38- 19 as Public Australia ban same day: The
year old Health foreign first death from
Chinese woman Emergency of travelers who the disease in
in the International were recently in the Philippines
Philippines. Concern. China. was confirmed.

January 27: January 30, February 2: Phl

The Philippines same day: The imposed travel
suspended 38-year old ban to and from
visa-free travel Chinese woman China, Hong
from China, was confirmed Kong, Macau
effective of Covid-19. and Taiwan.*
January 27 This was first
case of the
disease in the
Philippines.

*HTTPS://WWW.BALGLOBAL.COM/BAL-NEWS/PHILIPPINES-TEMPORARY-TRAVEL-BAN-EXPANDED-TO-ALL-MAINLAND-CHINA-HONG-KONG-AND-MACAU/

43

February 5: The first

confirmed case of a
Filipino citizen outside
the Philippines was
announced. The case is of
a crew member of the
February 3, the day cruise ship Diamond
after: Athletic field in Princess quarantined off
Tarlac was designated as the coast of Yokohama,
quarantine site. Japan.

February 3, same day: February 9–22:

World Health Repatriates from Wuhan
Organization Chief were quarantined at the
advises widespread travel New Clark City in Capas,
bans not needed. Tarlac. None of them
displayed any symptoms
during the quarantine
period and was released
after they were cleared
for the disease.

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March 7, the day after:

February 26: The The Department of
number of new infections Health confirmed that the
inside China is overtaken fifth case was the first
by those elsewhere for local transmission in the
the first time. Italy and country. Code Red Sub- March 9: Ten new cases
Iran emerge as new Level 1 was also raised as were confirmed in Phl,
epicenters. a precautionary measure. totaling 20 cases.

March 6, a month after March 8: The President

the previous reported formally declared a state
case in the Philippines: of public health
The fourth and fifth cases, emergency in the
an employee of Deloitte Philippines.
at Bonifacio Global City
in Taguig, and a resident
of Cainta, Rizal
respectively, were
confirmed. Both are
Filipino citizens, making
them the first and second
cases of Filipinos inside
the Philippines.

45

March 15: Metro

March 10: The whole Manila was locked
of Italy is closed. down.

March 14 March 16: The entire

• France and Spain join Italy Philippines was placed
in imposing lockdowns on under a state of
tens of millions of people. calamity.
• Australia orders foreign
travelers to self-isolate, and
other countries extend
entry bans to try to stop the
spreading virus.

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March 20:
California
was the first March 23:
March 17: state in the Congress
Luzon was US to issue realigned
placed a state- funds for
under wide Covid-19
lockdown. lockdown. programs.

March 19: March 22: April 30:

Philippine All foreign ECQ in the
Visa visitors to Philippines
issuance to the was
foreign Philippines imposed.
nationals were
suspended. banned.

47

Q4: Of the COVID-

19 timeline, what’s
your insight and
realization?

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 Or ignorance?
SO, IS THE  Or indecisiveness?
SPREAD DUE TO  But, that’s too simple a reason!
GOVERNMENT  We should look at the systemic
NEGLECT? problems that caused the core
problem!

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PERHAPS WE SHOULD LOOK AT THE LAYERS AND LAYERS OF

SYSTEMS THAT MAKE RESPONSE DIFFICULT

Fragility of our economic

Medical supply chain system and dependence
Testing rollout system? (which was also a global on consumption
problem)? spending (but is there
any alternative?)

Local government’s
ability to impose
Government’s centralized localized lockdowns and
Public finance system?
decision-making? financial capacity to
sustain community
needs?

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THE EASIEST WAY TO ANALYZE A PROBLEM IS TO LOOK AT THE

SURFACE
The National
Gas prices
Government
are high
has economic
GAS PRICES because of
control and Therefore The solution?
ARE HIGH the
the President
President’s
is the head of
doing
government

We do not see that gas prices are beyond the control of a particular government.

That the law of supply and demand impacts the cost.

That gas rich countries are the ones that influence prices as oligopolists.

We tend to skip—out of convenience and quick fix—

The deeper, more difficult of looking at the forest.

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IN LINEAR THINKING

Some solutions are obvious

We blame limited
and effective in the short-
resources, downplay our
term but have unintended
failures, and view others in
consequences in the long
a negative light (sisihan).
term: making things worse.

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THE PROBLEM

Like a problem tree…

We conclude that A  B

Without looking at the other factors.

53

WE SEE THE COMPONENTS BUT NOT THE WHOLE

SET SYSTEM

Nothing changes when a part is taken away or Change definitely happens if you add or take
added to this set. away a part of this system.

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SET (COLLECTION) V. SYSTEM

A BOWL OF BASKETBALL
BF-GF KITCHEN
FRUITS TEAM

55

ARE YOU PART

OF A SYSTEM?

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YOU

FAMILY

COMMUNITY
• Barangay, Town,
Province, Country,
Word

UNIVERSE

57

A set of
components

that work
together

for the overall

objective of
the whole

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IN SYSTEMS
THINKING

 We have to see the layers

and layers of systems that
affect each system.
 We have to use a
different lens: a wide
lens.
 From conventional
(linear) to systems
thinking (non-linear).

59

Views the organization as a united, purposeful

system composed of interrelated parts.

A HOLISTIC POINT Gives leaders, policy-makers and managers a

way of looking at the whole organization, whole
OF VIEW person, whole group, and the whole social
system.

Tells us that the activity of any segment of an

organization affects, in varying degrees the
activity of every other segment.

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WE WILL THINK FROM LINES TO LOOPS

LINEAR

SYSTEMS
THINKING

NON-
LINEAR

61

BECAUSE ALL SYSTEMS ARE CIRCULAR ENTITIES THAT

COLLIDE & INTERCONNECT WITH EACH OTHER
ORGANISM
Individuals

GROUP
SUPRANATIONAL SYSTEM Teams, departments,
Global systems, continents, families, and similar Systems
regions, Earth bodies composed of
members within
systems.

ORGANIZATION
SOCIETY
Firm, company, neighborhood,
States, provinces, countries,
community, city, private and public
nations, regions within
organizations and nonprofit
countries
organizations

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KEYWORDS

Interdependent
(magkakasandig)

Interrelated
(magkakaugnay)

63

WE HAVE TO REALIZE THAT CAUSES PRODUCE EFFECTS THAT

ARE CAUSES TO THE CAUSES THEMSELVES!

CAUSAL POVERTY
CAUSE POVERTY
EFFECT

CAUSAL INSURGENCY
EFFECT INSURGENCY
EFFECT

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All factors are

There are no
interconnected
beginnings and
and
no endings.
TAKE A LOOK interrelated.

VARIABLES
The arrows
(factor) are
WORK connote action:
written in
cause to effect.
STRESS neutral terms.

PERFECTIONISM
FERNAN’S WEIGHT APPETITE

METABOLISM DISCRIMINATING
PALETTE

CAUSAL
LOOP Variables
FOOD
AVAILABILITY

DIAGRAM
65

ACTIVITY OUTPUT NO. 02

CONVERT YOUR INTO A CLD (CAUSAL

PROBLEM TREE… LOOP DIAGRAM).

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AO 02 SCORING RUBRIC {10/10 POINTS}

Needs work Acceptable Exemplary
(1 point) (3 points) (5 points)

Variables Almost all variables are Some variables are vague. All variables are clear and
too vague or not clearly Some variables are precise. All variables are
associated with the system neutral. neutral.
being modeled. Almost all
variables are not neutral.
Causal Some lines have no All lines have an All lines have an
relationships arrowheads. Some lines arrowhead on only one arrowhead on only one
cross each other. Some end. Most arrows point end. All arrows correctly
arrowheads point in from cause to effect. point from cause to
reverse (effect to cause). effect.

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