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A Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Model for Wind Farms That Includes Power
Purchase Agreement (PPA) Energy Delivery Limits

Conference Paper · June 2016


DOI: 10.1115/POWER2016-59608

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Proceedings of the ASME 2016 Power Conference
PowerEnergy2016
June 26 - 30, 2016, Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Power Energy 2016-59608

A Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) Model for Wind


Farms that Includes Power Purchase Agreement (PPA)
Energy Delivery Limits

Maira Bruck, Navid Goudarzi, Peter Sandborn

Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE), Department of Mechanical Engineering Department,
University of Maryland, College Park, MD USA 20742

ABSTRACT energy Seller can use to negotiate delivery penalties


within their PPA. This model has been tested on a
The cost of energy is an increasingly important
controlled wind farm and with real wind farm data.
issue in the world as renewable energy resources are
The results show that LCOE depends on the
growing in demand. Performance-based energy
limitations on energy purchase within a PPA
contracts are designed to keep the price of energy as
contract as well as the expected performance
low as possible while controlling the risk for both
characteristics associated with wind farms.
parties (i.e., the Buyer and the Seller). Price and risk
are often balanced using complex Power Purchase
Agreements (PPAs). Since wind is not a constant NOMENCLATURE
supply source, to keep risk low, wind PPAs contain CBI – Capacity-based incentive
clauses that require the purchase and sale of energy CF – Capacity factor
to fall within reasonable limits. However, the COE – Cost of energy
existence of those limits also creates pressure on CRF – Capital recovery factor
prices causing increases in the Levelized Cost of D - Depreciation
Energy (LCOE). Depending on the variation in E – Quantity of generated energy
capacity factor (CF), the power generator (the F – Fuel cost
Seller) may find that the limitations on power I – Initial investment
purchasing given by the utility (the Buyer) are not IBI – Investment-based incentive
favorable and will result in higher costs of energy ITC – Investment tax credit
than predicted. Existing cost models do not take LCOE – Levelized cost of energy
into account energy purchase limitations or Maxlim – Threshold for maximum penalty
variations in energy production when calculating an Minlim – Threshold for minimum penalty
LCOE. A new cost model is developed to evaluate NREL – National Renewable Energy Laboratory
the price of electricity from wind energy under a OM – Operation and maintenance
PPA contract. This study develops a method that an Pexp – Expected power production

1 Copyright © 2016 by ASME


PBC – Performance-based contract use of PPAs for all sources of energy. PPAs are
PBI – Production-based incentive Performance-Based Contracts (PBCs) that aim to
Pen – Total penalty cost create a “fair” agreement for the purchase and sale
PL – Production loss of energy between a utility (the Buyer) and a
PN – Minimum penalty cost generator (the Seller). The use of PPAs has been
PPA – Power purchase agreement increasing around the world and there existed a total
PTC – Production tax credit of 29,632 MW in 343 signed or planned PPAs for
PVOM – Present value of O&M costs wind farms in January 2014 [4]. PPAs use an LCOE
r – Weighted average cost of capital calculation to determine a fair price of energy, much
R – Royalties or land rents like a standard retail energy contract. However,
SAM – System Advisory Model Buyers in a PPA can create terms that limit the
T – Tax levy purchase of energy annually and therefore affect the
TC – Tax credit actual LCOE.
TLCC – Total life-cycle cost Normally, LCOE models include all the costs
associated with a project. They address the capital
INTRODUCTION costs, operational costs over the lifetime of the
project, the energy produced, and the weighted
In many states within the United States there are average cost of capital (WACC). The National
portfolio standards set by the states to increase the Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and others
sale and consumption of renewable sources of have developed and used LCOE models that
energy [1]. While renewable energies such as wind typically consider all of these parameters [5-7]. The
energy have acquired a great momentum around the terms of the PPA are important because they create
world [2], the cost of energy (COE) becomes a costs that affect the actual LCOE. However, current
major concern for the public and utilities as states LCOE models do not include the effects of PPAs on
push requirements to obtain power from more the cost of wind farms. It is important that the
renewable energy sources. COE is the actual cost to LCOE in a PPA reflects all the costs in a project or
buy energy while LCOE is the cost to generate the the project may fail. If the LCOE does not reflect
energy. The LCOE is a commonly accepted the break-even cost, the Seller risks the project’s
calculation of the Total Life-Cycle Cost (TLCC) for failure and the Buyer risks the loss in profit from
each unit of energy produced in the given lifetime not providing enough supply of energy to the end-
of a project [3]. use consumers. A more accurately calculated LCOE
LCOE is commonly used within energy can prevent the failure of a wind farm.
contracts to determine a fair price for energy. The In this study, the LCOE model has been
fair price is then used to set the contract price and modified to address the PPA annual energy delivery
the price schedule of a PPA. The cost of energy for limits, also known as penalties. Although the
each unit of energy determined in the PPA is application of penalties as just another cost appears
negotiated around the standard LCOE accounting to be straightforward, the penalties are more
for the possible risks that could raise the actual complex to analyze when uncertainties are
LCOE. In a normal energy contract and in PPAs, the introduced. The effect of penalties on the LCOE can
LCOE is calculated over the period of the contract vary depending on the CF as well as the limits on
and energy is purchased as it arrives to the agreed the purchase of energy. Determining the best limits
upon point of delivery. However, PPAs are used to in a PPA depends on the needs of the Buyer in
share and reduce the risks of added costs. Those conjunction with a desire for a COE that reflects the
risks should be, but are not, accounted for within actual LCOE for the Seller within the contract. This
LCOE models. study develops a method that provides a tool to the
In addition to the increase in the use of Seller to negotiate penalties within their PPA.
renewable energy sources, there is an increase in the

2 Copyright © 2016 by ASME


PPA AND LCOE
PPA
PPAs define the terms for the entire project’s
Buyer Seller
construction, operation and maintenance (O&M),
insurance, the interconnection and grid, government
involvement in the project, and any other third party O&M

Responsibilities
involvement in the project [8]. Each of these
relationships affects the cost of the wind farm.
Figure 1 shows the basic relationship formed by a Construction
PPA between the Buyer and the Seller. Normally,
PPAs are viewed as just the relationship between
the utility and the generator. This study considers all
of the responsibilities involved in a PPA, Energy Delivery
specifically energy delivery.
During the negotiation of the PPA, the length of Figure 1 – Relationship between the Seller and the
the agreement, the PPA price and the price schedule Buyer through PPA
are determined [9]. All the costs involved are
reviewed to calculate the LCOE for the whole
project. The LCOE is then used to determine a fair LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY (LCOE)
value for each unit of energy. During the process,
both parties review all the terms within the contract The levelized cost of energy, also known the
and use the costs created from these terms in their levelized cost of electricity, or the levelized energy
LCOE models. Although the PPA covers the costs cost, is an economic assessment of the average total
and reviews contractual terms to determine the cost to build and operate a power-generating system
LCOE, the models used do not consider the penalty over its lifetime divided by the total power
on annual energy delivery as a cost. The purpose of generated of the system over that lifetime. LCOE is
creating annual energy delivery requirements is to often used as an alternative for the average price
be fair to the Buyer who takes on risk in acquiring that the power generating system must receive in a
negative profits by joining a new contract. market to break even over its lifetime. It is a first-
However, the costs involved in these penalties are order economic assessment of the cost
also a risk that could increase the LCOE without competitiveness of an electricity-generating system
increasing the COE or the PPA price. Thus, causing that incorporates all costs over its lifetime
a loss in profit for the Seller. The effect of penalties accounting for initial investment, O&M cost, cost of
must be considered within the LCOE to ensure the fuel, and cost of capital.
fairness in the contract. The definition of LCOE is the cost that, if
Although wind farms have energy that is bought assigned to every unit of energy produced by the
and paid for monthly, the actual revenue is system over the analysis period, will equal the total
calculated at the end of the year. At the end of each life-cycle cost (TLCC) when discounted back to the
year, the Seller’s account is reviewed for penalty base year [1, 3],
costs and the over purchase of energy to rectify the 𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐸𝐸
account balance. It is important to note that the ∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1 = 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 (1)
(1+𝑟𝑟)𝑖𝑖
LCOE model needs to review the annual CF and not
the monthly CF and energy generation to determine where discrete compounding is assumed, Ei is the
the actual LCOE of a wind farm due to the PPA amount of energy produced in year i, r is the
billing conditions stated above. WACC, and n is the number of years over which the
LCOE is calculated. TLCC in this model can also be
expressed as [10],

3 Copyright © 2016 by ASME


where COEi is the cost to generate energy and each
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇 = 𝐼𝐼 + 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 (2) parameter is given in the ith year. In the financial
section of the SAM model, the LCOE is calculated
where I is the initial investment, and the Present based on expected cash flows for O&M and capital
Value of the O&M costs (PVOM) is given by [10], expenditures.
Although cash flow is important to determining
𝐿𝐿𝑂𝑂 the actual money spent and costs involved in a wind
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 = ∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1 (1+𝑟𝑟)𝑖𝑖 𝑖𝑖 (3)
farm project, SAM does not recognize the
implementation of penalties or tax credits in its
where OMi is the O&M costs in year i. The initial wind LCOE model [6].
investment is an initial cost only accounted for in Similar to SAM, the most commonly used
the first year, making the LCOE of the first year a LCOE models do not include tax credits, production
higher and unrepresentative cost for the system losses, or penalties. Some LCOE models, such as
[10]. Equation 6,
Since LCOE is by definition constant once
calculated, it can be factored out of the summation 𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖 +𝐶𝐶𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖 +𝐹𝐹𝑖𝑖 −𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖 −𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖 −𝑃𝑃𝑖𝑖 +𝑅𝑅𝑖𝑖
∑𝑛𝑛
𝑖𝑖=1
and the model is rewritten in Equation 4 as, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑃𝑃𝐿𝐿 =
𝑖𝑖
(1+𝑟𝑟)
(6)
𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖
∑𝑛𝑛
𝑖𝑖=1 (1+𝑟𝑟)𝑖𝑖
𝑇𝑇𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑃𝑃𝐿𝐿 = ∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1 𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖 (4)
( )
(1+𝑟𝑟)𝑖𝑖 where F is the fuel cost, PTC is the production tax
credit, D is the depreciation, T is the tax levy, and R
Although the denominator of Equation 4 appears to is the royalties, recognize that the tax credits reduce
be discounting the energy (and some authors costs but, they do not recognize PPA penalties as a
characterize it as such), the discounting is actually a cost [7]. Other models, such as Equation 7,
result of the algebra carried through from Equation
1 in which revenues were discounted (energy is not 𝐿𝐿𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑃𝑃𝐿𝐿 = 𝐸𝐸
(𝐼𝐼 + 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃) (7)
discounted, only cost can be discounted).
Based on the derivation of LCOE, the LCOE
where CRF is the capital recovery factor, consider
model must incorporate all financial parameters that
the LCOE as a direct project cost and not the sum of
contribute to the TLCC. Most existing models do
TLCC of wind farms, which should include tax
not address all cost parameters within PPAs and
credits and PPA penalty costs in the TLCC [5]. PPAs
therefore PPAs need an updated model that
typically do consider tax credits as a part of LCOE
addresses all costs.
as seen in the Delmarva-Bluewater PPA [11] and
explicitly in Equation 6. However within PPAs, the
EXISTING LCOE MODELS cost of penalties is not considered in the life-cycle
A few common LCOE models currently exist cost.
and are used to determine fair prices for wind
energy. NREL uses SAM (System Advisor Model) A NEW LCOE MODEL/METHODOLOGY
to compute the LCOE using wind farm data for
Current LCOE models do not consider all cost
PPAs [6]. Equation 5 shows the LCOE model used
parameters in a wind farm managed via a PPA.
in SAM
PPAs may define a maximum annual energy
𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖 delivery quantity, a minimum annual energy
∑𝑛𝑛
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑃𝑃𝐿𝐿 =
𝑖𝑖=0(1+𝑟𝑟)𝑖𝑖
(5) delivery quantity, both of these limits, or neither.
𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖
∑𝑛𝑛
𝑡𝑡=1(1+𝑟𝑟)𝑖𝑖 The terms generally follow the rule that after the
maximum delivery is reached, energy will no longer

4 Copyright © 2016 by ASME


(𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖 + 𝐶𝐶𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖 + 𝐹𝐹𝑖𝑖 − 𝑃𝑃𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖 + 𝑃𝑃𝑒𝑒𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖 )
is purchased by the Buyer, or the energy will be ∑𝑛𝑛
𝑖𝑖=1 𝑖𝑖
(1+𝑟𝑟)
sold at a reduced price [12]. This is considered a 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑃𝑃𝐿𝐿 = 𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖 (10)
∑𝑛𝑛
cost for the Seller as they lose some value of the 𝑖𝑖=1 (1+𝑟𝑟)𝑖𝑖

energy that is produced after the maximum delivery


quantity is reached. Similarly, there is a direct cost PL and PN are only applied to the total penalty cost
in the minimum energy delivery defined in the PPA, (Pen) when the calculated cost is more than $0.
as every unit of under-produced energy must be The Pen is the sum of the production loss and the
paid back at the agreed upon COE. The minimum penalty cost,
delivery penalty is modeled after the PacifiCorp 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 = 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 + 𝑃𝑃𝑇𝑇 (11)
draft PPA, which included the liquidated damages
from output shortfall [13]. The COE in a PPA is and the tax credit (TC) is given by,
generally calculated from the LCOE that does not
𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖 = 𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖 + 𝑃𝑃𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖 + 𝑇𝑇𝐼𝐼𝐼𝐼𝑖𝑖 + 𝐼𝐼𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖 + 𝑃𝑃𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑖𝑖 + 𝐷𝐷𝑖𝑖 (12)
consider delivery penalties as a cost. For this
reason, the cost calculated from penalties in the new where all types of tax credit that can be applied to a
model uses the calculated LCOE for each individual wind farm are included (see nomenclature for
wind farm under a PPA without penalties as the specific tax credit contributions). Both of the Pen
COE. and the TC depend on the condition imposed by the
The new model starts with an existing LCOE PPA.
model (Equation 6) and includes the delivery
penalties and tax credits. The cost for under-
delivering energy (PN), is the difference between MODEL VERIFICATION TESTS
the energy that was generated and delivered (E) and A controlled study of wind farms was conducted
the threshold for the minimum penalty (Minlim) to explore the effect of the CF on the LCOE. The
based on expected energy production (Pexp), various LCOEs were calculated based on four types
of PPAs. In one PPA, no penalties were used. The
�𝑂𝑂𝑖𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑃𝑃𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 −𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖 �𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖
𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 = ∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1 (8) second PPA has just a maximum delivery penalty
(1+𝑟𝑟)𝑖𝑖
while the third has just a minimum delivery penalty.
The final type of PPA has both penalties. The COE
In Equation 8, Minlim is smallest fraction of
for each wind farm is different as the LCOE will not
expected energy production that the Buyer requires.
be the same for each wind farm producing energy
Similarly, the production loss (PL) is the difference
with different CFs and rated power. Each LCOE
between the energy that was generated (E) and the
was calculated for a duration of 3 years. The
threshold for the maximum penalty (Maxlim) based
following data was used,
on the Pexp,

�𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖 −𝑂𝑂𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑃𝑃𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒 �𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐸𝐸𝑖𝑖 • I = $1500 per installed kW [13]


𝑃𝑃𝑇𝑇 = ∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1 (9) • OM = $0.01 per kWh produced [13]
(1+𝑟𝑟)𝑖𝑖
• F = $0 [6]
In Equation 9, Maxlim is the largest fraction of • TC = $0.05 per kWh sold [14]
expected energy production that the Buyer is • r = 0.089 per year [15]
willing to purchase. PN is only applied during the • COE = Calculated LCOE from a PPA
years that actual energy production is less than the without penalties [16]
quantity of energy determined by MinlimPexp. PL is
only applied when the energy produced exceeds the Pexp in this case and all of those that follow in
amount of energy determined by MaxlimPexp. this section is calculated using a CF of 0.4 as
The LCOE model including all the unaccounted current wind projects are expected to be producing
for cost variables that exist in PPAs is given by, capacity at this rate. The CF used in Pexp is the

5 Copyright © 2016 by ASME


expected average CF for energy production in a
windfarm, however we assume that wind farms will
not always produce at this expected CF. Therefore,
Ei will be calculated from the real annual CF. The
differences in Pexp and Ei, which is then used to
calculated penalties, show the differences in what
energy was expected from the farm versus the
energy that was actually produced.
Within the first LCOE verification test, the
annual energy production is calculated using a CF Figure 2 - CF of 0.16 with 5% variation. Maxlim = 0.75.
of 0.16 that varied annually by 5% around the initial
CF value. The threshold for the minimum penalty
limit (Minlim) was increased from 0.1 of expected
energy production to 0.50 and the threshold for the
maximum delivery penalty limit (Maxlim) was fixed
at 0.75 of expected energy production. Figure 2
shows a comparison of the different LCOEs as the
Minlim was increased. This LCOE results shows that
there is a significant cost increase as the minimum
limit on energy purchase is increased. There is no
difference in the LCOE between a PPA that has just
a minimum delivery penalty and a PPA that has no
penalties because with a Maxlim of 0.75 and CF of Figure 3 - CF of 0.16 with 5% variation. Minlim = 0.52.
0.16, the wind farm never produced above the
maximum limit on energy purchase and the PL is The same changes in the Maxlim and Minlim were
never applied. Hence, the PPA with just a minimum run again, except the CF was increased to 0.35 with
delivery penalty has the same LCOE as a PPA with 10% variation around the CF. Results from
both penalties when the CF is low because only the changing the Minlim are shown in Figure 4 and the
PN is applied. results from changing the Maxlim are illustrated in
A second test was run to observe the effect on Figure 5. Once again, as the threshold for the
the given farm with the same CF as the Maxlim was minimum annual delivery limit was increased, the
increased from 0.65 to 0.85 and the Minlim was fixed LCOE also increased. However, in this study there
at 0.52. The results given in Figure 3 show that is production loss generated from the wind farm and
once again there is a large difference between the the LCOE from a PPA with just a maximum penalty
PPA with just a maximum penalty and, the PPA with shows a higher LCOE than a PPA without penalties.
just a minimum penalty and the PPA with both The results show that changing the Minlim also
penalties. However, there was no change in the changes the LCOE and the preferred type of PPA.
LCOE caused by increasing the Maxlim. The results As seen in Figure 5, changing the threshold for the
show that with a wind farm that has such a low CF, maximum annual energy delivery limit also affects
the Maxlim makes little difference while the Minim the LCOE. As the limit is increased, the cost is
can significantly change the actual LCOE of the decreased for a PPA with just a maximum penalty
wind farm. and the LCOE shrinks to be closer to the LCOE of a
PPA with just a minimum penalty. From these
results, it is evident that a high limit on the
maximum energy purchase will reduce the
difference in LCOEs between the PPA options when
the CF of a wind farm is high.

6 Copyright © 2016 by ASME


on the different annual energy delivery
requirements and if penalties were applied.
Within this model the Maxlim was set at 0.75 of
expected energy production as calculated for the
best approach to a long term PPA [20]. The Minlim
was set at 0.52 of expected annual energy
production as seen in the Delmarva-Bluewater PPA
[4]. The results show that in most data sets, just
Figure 4 - CF of 0.36 with 10% variation. Maxlim = having a maximum penalty produced LCOEs
0.75. closest to the LCOEs with no penalties and LCOEs
with both penalties or those with just minimum
penalties produced higher LCOEs. Based on the
results from the controlled study, it can be assumed
that the different clusters of LCOEs are caused by
the differences in CF. Lower CFs cause larger
differences between a PPA with just a maximum
penalty and a PPA with just a minimum penalty as
produced by wind farm datasets 1 and 2. While
datasets 4 and 7 show closer clusters of LCOE due
to higher CFs that less frequently fall below the
threshold for the minimum annual energy delivery
limit, but more frequently have production loss by
producing energy above the maximum annual
Figure 5 - CF of 0.36 with 10% variation. Minlim = energy delivery limit.
0.52.
Table 1 - Wind farm dataset details [17].
WIND FARM CASE STUDY Wind Farm
Year Location (Number
A simulation was run to determine the resulting Dataset/ Manufacturer/
Built of Turbines)
LCOEs from the four PPA options tested in the Rated Power
1 - Vestas (2 MW) 2002 Germany (17)
previous section in real wind farms. Real data was
collected from 7 different wind farms in which, the 2 - Enercon (2 MW) 2005 Germany (24)
farms used varied in number of turbines, 3 - Siemens (2.3 MW) 2010 Denmark (11)
manufacturer, year built, rated power and country 4 - Enercon (2 MW) 2010 Germany (10)
(Germany or Denmark) as seen in Table 1 [18]. To 5 - Vestas (3 MW) 2010 Denmark (18)
simplify the differences in costs across the wind 6 - Vestas (3 MW) 2007 Germany (5)
farms, the same cost variable values used in the 7 - Siemens (3.6 MW) 2006 Germany (7)
model verification tests were used. The only
difference in costs used from the model verification
tests and the wind farm case study is that the wind
farm case study uses a fixed COE for each farm at
$0.25, based on NREL’s highest expected COE
[19]. These wind farms compared the four different
PPA types with a fixed Maxlim of 0.75 and a Minlim
of 0.52 The LCOE of each turbine was calculated
from the sum of LCOE costs at the end of 5 years.
Figure 6 shows the differences in the LCOEs based

7 Copyright © 2016 by ASME


Turbine Aeromechanics, Prognostics and
Sustainability”.

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Figure 6 - LCOE for PPA comparison. on the development of the wind turbine
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Journal of Dynamics and Control, 1 (2),
CONCLUSION pp.192-202.
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