Forecast

Data First Approach

Total Adults 2008 230000000
Overweight BMI>25-30 (34%) 78200000 Option 1
Population Trying to Lose Weight (35%) 27370000 Year
Comfortable with Weight Loss-Drugs (15%) 4105500 1
2
Data Second Approach 3
Total Adults 2008 230000000 4
Overweight BMI>25-30 (34%) 78200000 5
Immediately Go to Health Care (12%) 9384000

Data Third Approach Option 2

Potential Users 4300000 Year
1
Data Fixed Cost 2
Manufacture $ 6,000,000 3
Marketing Budget $ 23,000,000 4
Research & Development $ 400,000,000 5
Total Fixed Cost $ 429,000,000

Data Pricing Option 3

Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Year
Retail Price $ 75.00 $ 125.00 $ 150.00 1
Retail Gross Margin $ 25.00 $ 41.67 $ 50.00 2
Manufacture Price $ 50.00 $ 83.33 $ 100.00 3
Variable Cost $ 25.20 $ 25.20 $ 25.20 4
Manufacture Gross Margin $ 24.80 $ 58.13 $ 74.80 5

Option 1
Year
1
2
3
4
5

Option 2
Year
1
2
3
 4
5

Option 3
Year
1
2
3
4
5

Option 1
Year
1
2
3
4
5

Option 2
Year
1
2
3
4
5

Option 3
Year
1
2
3
4
5
 First Approach Calculation

Overweight Try To Lose Weight Using Weight Loss-Drugs User

78200000 27370000 4105500 10%
78200000 27370000 4105500 15%
78200000 27370000 4105500 20%
78200000 27370000 4105500 25%
78200000 27370000 4105500 30%
Total Sales

Overweight Try To Lose Weight Using Weight Loss-Drugs User

78200000 27370000 4105500 10%
78200000 27370000 4105500 15%
78200000 27370000 4105500 20%
78200000 27370000 4105500 25%
78200000 27370000 4105500 30%
Total Sales

Overweight Try To Lose Weight Using Weight Loss-Drugs User

78200000 27370000 4105500 10%
78200000 27370000 4105500 15%
78200000 27370000 4105500 20%
78200000 27370000 4105500 25%
78200000 27370000 4105500 30%
Total Sales

Second Approach Calculation

Go to Health Care (12%) User Total Repurchase (60%)

9384000 10% 938400 563040
9384000 15% 1407600 844560
9384000 20% 1876800 1126080
9384000 25% 2346000 1407600
9384000 30% 2815200 1689120
Total Sales

Go to Health Care (12%) User Total Repurchase (60%)

9384000 10% 938400 563040
9384000 15% 1407600 844560
9384000 20% 1876800 1126080
 9384000 25% 2346000 1407600
9384000 30% 2815200 1689120
Total Sales

Go to Health Care (12%) User Total Repurchase (60%)

9384000 10% 938400 563040
9384000 15% 1407600 844560
9384000 20% 1876800 1126080
9384000 25% 2346000 1407600
9384000 30% 2815200 1689120
Total Sales

Third Approach Calculation

Potential Users User Total User Repurchase (60%)

4300000 30% 1290000 774000
4300000 35% 1505000 903000
4300000 40% 1720000 1032000
4300000 45% 1935000 1161000
4300000 50% 2150000 1290000
Total Sales

Potential Users User Total User Repurchase (60%)

4300000 30% 1290000 774000
4300000 35% 1505000 903000
4300000 40% 1720000 1032000
4300000 45% 1935000 1161000
4300000 50% 2150000 1290000
Total Sales

Potential Users User Total User Repurchase (60%)

4300000 30% 1290000 774000
4300000 35% 1505000 903000
4300000 40% 1720000 1032000
4300000 45% 1935000 1161000
4300000 50% 2150000 1290000
Total Sales
First Approach Calculation

ROI -59%
Total Repurchae (60%) Finish Program Total Customer / Year Sales
410550 246330 49266 706146 $ 17,512,421
615825 369495 73899 1059219 $ 26,268,631
821100 492660 98532 1412292 $ 35,024,842
1026375 615825 123165 1765365 $ 43,781,052
1231650 738990 147798 2118438 $ 52,537,262
tal Sales $ 175,124,208

ROI -4%
Total Repurchae (60%) Finish Program Total Customer / Year Sales
410550 246330 49266 706146 $ 41,048,267
615825 369495 73899 1059219 $ 61,572,400
821100 492660 98532 1412292 $ 82,096,534
1026375 615825 123165 1765365 $ 102,620,667
1231650 738990 147798 2118438 $ 123,144,801
tal Sales $ 410,482,670

ROI 23%
Total Repurchae (60%) Finish Program Total Customer / Year Sales
410550 246330 49266 706146 $ 52,819,721
615825 369495 73899 1059219 $ 79,229,581
821100 492660 98532 1412292 $ 105,639,442
1026375 615825 123165 1765365 $ 132,049,302
1231650 738990 147798 2118438 $ 158,459,162
tal Sales $ 528,197,208

ation

ROI -7%
Finish Program Total Customer / Year Sales
112608 1614048 $ 40,028,390
168912 2421072 $ 60,042,586
225216 3228096 $ 80,056,781
281520 4035120 $ 100,070,976
337824 4842144 $ 120,085,171
$ 400,283,904

ROI 119%
Finish Program Total Customer / Year Sales
112608 1614048 $ 93,824,610
168912 2421072 $ 140,736,915
225216 3228096 $ 187,649,220
 281520 4035120 $ 234,561,526
337824 4842144 $ 281,473,831
$ 938,246,102

ROI 181%
Finish Program Total Customer / Year Sales
112608 1614048 $ 120,730,790
168912 2421072 $ 181,096,186
225216 3228096 $ 241,461,581
281520 4035120 $ 301,826,976
337824 4842144 $ 362,192,371
$ 1,207,307,904

tion

ROI -14%
Finish Program Total Customer / Year Sales
154800 2218800 $ 55,026,240
180600 2588600 $ 64,197,280
206400 2958400 $ 73,368,320
232200 3328200 $ 82,539,360
258000 3698000 $ 91,710,400
$ 366,841,600

ROI 100%
Finish Program Total Customer / Year Sales
154800 2218800 $ 128,978,844
180600 2588600 $ 150,475,318
206400 2958400 $ 171,971,792
232200 3328200 $ 193,468,266
258000 3698000 $ 214,964,740
$ 859,858,960

ROI 158%
Finish Program Total Customer / Year Sales
154800 2218800 $ 165,966,240
180600 2588600 $ 193,627,280
206400 2958400 $ 221,288,320
232200 3328200 $ 248,949,360
258000 3698000 $ 276,610,400
$ 1,106,441,600
Approach Price ROI
24.80 -59%
58.13 -4%
1 74.8 23%
24.80 -7%
58.13 119%
2 74.8 181%
24.80 -14%
58.13 100%
3 74.8 158%

Printup adalah memiliki ROI sebesar 23% dengan price 74,80 pada approach pertama. Hal ini dikarena
berdasarkan soal yang diberikan, data yang mendekati 5% hanyalah ROI sebesar 23%. ROI yang mencapai
100% atau lebih sebaiknya tidak digunakan karena ada kemungkinan bahwa perhitungan tersebut sudah
matang dan tidak perlu lagi untuk diubah.