DCF Valuation

Sheet index

# Worksheet
1 1.Input -->
2 P&L assumptions
3 BS assumptions
4 2.Output -->
5 P&L
6 BS
7 Cash Flow
8 DCF valuation
9 3.Charts -->
10 Revenue&Ebitda
11 Cash flows
12 Ebitda bridge
13 Working capital
14 DCF results
15 4. Sources -->
16 P&L source
17 BS source
1.Input -->
P&L assumptions
Case scenarios:
Case 1: Optimistic case
Case 2: Base case
Selected case 1 Case 3: Worst case

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

$ in thousands Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast
Revenues 177,203 188,618 208,366 229,203 252,123 277,335
y-o-y growth % - 6.4% 10.5% 10% 10% 10%
Case 1 10% 10% 10%
Case 2 8% 8% 8%
Case 3 4% 4% 4%
Other revenues 3,520 2,416 2,585 2,585 2,585 2,585
y-o-y growth % 0% -31% 7% 0% 0% 0%
Case 1 0% 0% 0%
Case 2 0% 0% 0%
Case 3 0% 0% 0%
Cost of goods sold (142,394) (150,572) (157,523) (174,194) (191,613) (210,775)
% of revenues -80% -80% -76% -76% -76% -76%
Case 1 -76% -76% -76%
Case 2 -78% -78% -78%
Case 3 -80% -80% -80%
Operating expenses (18,011) (19,248) (23,867) (22,920) (25,212) (27,734)
% of revenues -10% -10% -11% -10% -10% -10%
Case 1 -10.0% -10.0% -10.0%
Case 2 -10.5% -10.5% -10.5%
Case 3 -11.0% -11.0% -11.0%
D&A (2,908) (4,650) (6,431) (4,584) (5,042) (5,547)
% of revenues -2% -2% -3% -2% -2% -2%
Case 1 -2% -2% -2%
Case 2 -3% -3% -3%
Case 3 -3% -3% -3%
Interest expenses (1,266) (2,191) (2,664) (2,664) (2,664) (2,664)
y-o-y growth % - 73.0% 21.6% 0% 0% 0%
Case 1 0% 0% 0%
Case 2 0% 0% 0%
Case 3 0% 0% 0%
Extraordinary items (318) (864) (320) - - -
% of revenues 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Case 1 0% 0% 0%
Case 2 0% 0% 0%
Case 3 0% 0% 0%
Taxes (3,806) (3,050) (3,815)
% of EBT -24% -23% -19% -18% -18% -18%
Case 1 -18% -18% -18%
Case 2 -20% -20% -20%
Case 3 -22% -22% -22%
 FY17 FY18
Forecast Forecast
305,069 335,576
10% 10%
10% 10%
8% 8%
4% 4%
2,585 2,585
0% 0%
0% 0%
0% 0%
0% 0%
(231,852) (255,037)
-76% -76%
-76% -76%
-78% -78%
-80% -80%
(30,507) (33,558)
-10% -10%
-10.0% -10.0%
-10.5% -10.5%
-11.0% -11.0%
(6,101) (6,712)
-2% -2%
-2% -2%
-3% -3%
-3% -3%
(2,664) (2,664)
0% 0%
0% 0%
0% 0%
0% 0%
- -
0% 0%
0% 0%
0% 0%
0% 0%

-18% -18%
-18% -18%
-20% -20%
-22% -22%
BS assumptions

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

$ in thousands Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast
Trade receivable 32,884 38,556 43,582 47,940 52,734 58,007
Days receivables (DSO) 66.8 73.6 75.3 75.3 75.3 75.3

Inventory 31,167 36,397 46,212 51,103 56,213 61,834

Days inventory (DIO) 78.8 87.0 105.6 105.6 105.6 105.6

Trade payable 15,891 26,352 36,190 40,020 44,022 48,424

Days payables (DPO) 40.2 63.0 82.7 82.7 82.7 82.7

PP&E 45,106 49,072 56,109 59,898 65,888 72,477

as a % of revenues 25.5% 26.0% 26.9% 26.1% 26.1% 26.1%

Other assets 8,842 11,359 17,603 14,868 16,354 17,990

as a % of revenues 5.0% 6.0% 8.4% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%

Other liabilities 5,969 5,800 8,473 8,030 8,833 9,716

as a % of revenues 3.4% 3.1% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
 FY17 FY18
Forecast Forecast
63,808 70,189
75.3 75.3

68,018 74,819
105.6 105.6

53,266 58,593
82.7 82.7

79,724 87,697
26.1% 26.1%

19,789 21,768
6.5% 6.5%

10,688 11,757
3.5% 3.5%
2.Output -->
P&L

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

$ in thousands Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Revenues 177,203 188,618 208,366 229,203 252,123 277,335 305,069
Other revenues 3,520 2,416 2,585 2,585 2,585 2,585 2,585
Total Revenues 180,723 191,034 210,951 231,788 254,708 279,920 307,654
Cost of goods sold (142,394) (150,572) (157,523) (174,194) (191,613) (210,775) (231,852)
Gross Margin 38,329 40,462 53,428 57,594 63,094 69,145 75,801
Operating expenses (18,011) (19,248) (23,867) (22,920) (25,212) (27,734) (30,507)
EBITDA 20,317 21,214 29,561 34,673 37,882 41,412 45,295
D&A (2,908) (4,650) (6,431) (4,584) (5,042) (5,547) (6,101)
EBIT 17,410 16,564 23,130 30,089 32,840 35,865 39,193
Interest expenses (1,266) (2,191) (2,664) (2,664) (2,664) (2,664) (2,664)
Extraordinary items (318) (864) (320) - - - -
EBT 15,826 13,509 20,146 27,425 30,176 33,201 36,529
Taxes (3,806) (3,050) (3,815) (4,937) (5,432) (5,976) (6,575)
Tax rate -24% -23% -19% -18% -18% -18% -18%
Net Income 12,020 10,459 16,331 22,489 24,744 27,225 29,954

1.0
 FY18
Forecast Note
335,576
2,585
338,161
(255,037)
83,123
(33,558)
49,566
(6,712)
42,854
(2,664)
-
40,190
(7,234)
-18%
32,956
Balance Sheet

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17

$ in thousands Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
Intangible assets 5,962 5,840 5,650 5,650 5,650 5,650 5,650
PP&E 45,106 49,072 56,109 59,898 65,888 72,477 79,724
Financial assets 8,824 9,831 10,323 10,323 10,323 10,323 10,323
Inventory 31,167 36,397 46,212 51,103 56,213 61,834 68,018
Trade receivable 32,884 38,556 43,582 47,940 52,734 58,007 63,808
Other assets 8,842 11,359 17,603 14,868 16,354 17,990 19,789
Cash and equivalents 11,791 19,409 8,174 23,747 35,915 49,307 64,044
Total Assets 144,576 170,464 187,652 213,528 243,077 275,587 311,355

Trade payable 15,891 26,352 36,190 40,020 44,022 48,424 53,266

Other liabilities 5,969 5,800 8,473 8,030 8,833 9,716 10,688
Financial liabilities 41,293 50,645 51,121 51,121 51,121 51,121 51,121
Shareholders' equity 81,422 87,667 91,868 114,357 139,101 166,326 196,280
Total Liabilities & Equities 144,576 170,464 187,652 213,528 243,077 275,587 311,355

Check - - - - - - -
 FY18
Forecast Note
5,650 Flat
87,697
10,323 Flat
74,819
70,189
21,768
80,261 Opening cash + Net Cash Flow
350,706

58,593
11,757
51,121 No additional debt
229,236
350,706

-
Cash Flow
.
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
$ in thousands Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
EBIT P&L 16,564 23,130 30,089 32,840
Operating taxes P&L (3,740) (4,380) (5,416) (5,911)
Operating tax rate -23% -19% -18% -18%
NOPAT 12,824 18,750 24,673 26,929
Add-back D&A P&L 4,650 6,431 4,584 5,042
Gross Cash Flow 17,474 25,181 29,257 31,971
Inventory BS (5,230) (9,815) (4,891) (5,110)
Trade receivables BS (5,672) (5,026) (4,358) (4,794)
Trade payables BS 10,460 9,838 3,830 4,002
Investments in working capital (442) (5,003) (5,419) (5,902)
Investments in other assets/liabilities BS (2,686) (3,571) 2,292 (684)
Capex BS (8,616) (13,467) (8,373) (11,032)
Other investments BS (885) (302) - -
Extraordinary items P&L (864) (320) - -
UFCF 3,981 2,518 17,757 14,353
Interest expenses P&L (2,191) (2,664) (2,664) (2,664)
Delta Oper taxes vs. Taxes P&L 690 565.1 480 480
Delta Financial liabilities BS 9,352 475 - -
Delta Equity incl. dividends BS, P&L (4,214) (12,130) - -
Net Cash Flow 7,618 (11,235) 15,573 12,168

Opening cash 11,791 19,409 8,174 23,747

Closing cash 19,409 8,174 23,747 35,915

Check 19,409 8,173.6 23,747 35,915

0.0 0.0 - -
 FY16 FY17 FY18
Forecast Forecast Forecast Note
35,865 39,193 42,854 Operating Cash Flow
(6,456) (7,055) (7,714) Operating Cash Flow
-18% -18% -18%
29,409 32,138 35,140
5,547 6,101 6,712 Operating Cash Flow
34,956 38,240 41,852
(5,621) (6,183) (6,802) Operating Cash Flow
(5,273) (5,801) (6,381) Operating Cash Flow
4,402 4,842 5,327 Operating Cash Flow
(6,493) (7,142) (7,856)
(752) (827) (910) Investing activities
(12,135) (13,349) (14,684) Investing activities
- - - Investing activities
- - - Operating Cash Flow
15,576 16,922 18,402
(2,664) (2,664) (2,664) Operating Cash Flow
480 480 480 Operating Cash Flow
- - - Financing activities
- - - Financing activities
13,392 14,737 16,217

35,915 49,307 64,044

49,307 64,044 80,261

49,307 64,044 80,261

- - -
Cash Flow
.
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
$ in thousands Actual Actual Forecast Forecast
EBIT 16,564 23,130 30,089 32,840
Add-back D&A 4,650 6,431 4,584 5,042
Operating taxes (3,740) (4,380) (5,416) (5,911)
Delta Oper taxes vs. Taxes 690 565 480 480
Interest expenses (2,191) (2,664) (2,664) (2,664)
Extraordinary items (864) (320) - -
Inventory (5,230) (9,815) (4,891) (5,110)
Trade receivables (5,672) (5,026) (4,358) (4,794)
Trade payables 10,460 9,838 3,830 4,002
Cash Flow from Operating activities 14,667 17,759 21,654 23,884

Investments in other assets/liabilities (2,686) (3,571) 2,292 (684)

Capex (8,616) (13,467) (8,373) (11,032)
Other investments (885) (302) - -
Cash Flow from Investing activities (12,187) (17,340) (6,081) (11,716)

Delta Financial liabilities 9,352 475 - -

Delta Equity incl. dividends (4,214) (12,130) - -
Cash Flow from Financing activities 5,138 (11,654) - -

Net Cash Flow 7,618 (11,235) 15,573 12,168

Check 7,618 (11,235) 15,573 12,168

- - - -
 FY16 FY17 FY18
Forecast Forecast Forecast
35,865 39,193 42,854
5,547 6,101 6,712
(6,456) (7,055) (7,714)
480 480 480
(2,664) (2,664) (2,664)
- - -
(5,621) (6,183) (6,802)
(5,273) (5,801) (6,381)
4,402 4,842 5,327
26,279 28,914 31,811

(752) (827) (910)

(12,135) (13,349) (14,684)
- - -
(12,888) (14,176) (15,594)

- - -
- - -
- - -

13,392 14,737 16,217

13,392 14,737 16,217

- - -
4.Sources -->
P&L source

2011 2012 2013

USD in thousands Act Act Act
Revenue from sales and services 177,203 188,618 208,366
Other revenue 3,520 2,416 2,585
Revenue 180,723 191,034 210,951

Raw materials (139,903) (138,923) (150,080)

Direct costs (2,491) (11,649) (7,443)
Cost for services (16,390) (17,878) (22,293)
Lease costs (291) (246) (121)
Other operating expenses (1,331) (1,123) (1,453)

EBITDA 20,317 21,214 29,561

D&A (2,908) (4,650) (6,431)

EBIT 17,410 16,564 23,130

Financial income/expenses (1,266) (2,191) (2,664)

Extraordinary income (318) (864) (320)

EBT 15,826 13,509 20,146

Taxes (3,806) (3,050) (3,815)

Net Income 12,020 10,459 16,331

BS source

31Dec11 31Dec12 31Dec13

USD in thousands Act Act Act
Intangible assets 5,962 5,840 5,650
PP&E 45,106 49,072 56,109
Financial assets 8,824 9,831 10,323

Fixed assets 59,892 64,743 72,082

Inventory 31,167 36,397 46,212

Trade receivables 32,884 38,556 43,582
Other assets 8,842 11,359 17,603

Cash and equivalents 11,791 19,409 8,174

Non fixed assets 84,684 105,721 115,570

Total Assets 144,576 170,464 187,652

 31Dec11 31Dec12 31Dec13
USD in thousands Act Act Act
Share Capital 6,785 6,800 7,508
Reserves 46,224 44,414 46,513
Retained earnings 16,394 25,994 21,516
Profit/(loss) for the year 12,020 10,459 16,331
Total Equity 81,422 87,667 91,868

Trade payable 15,891 26,352 36,190

Other liabilities 5,315 4,334 6,473
Deferred taxes 479 1,218 1,760
Provisions for retirement benefits 175 248 240

Bank borrowings 37,403 45,595 50,680

Other Financial liabilities 3,890 5,051 440
Total Liabilities 63,153 82,797 95,784

Total Liabilities & Equity 144,576 170,464 187,652

- - -