susceptible  
removed


stages 
Defining
Stages

infective



I
for
infective


etiology
or
œtology 
 ow
easily
the
disease
is
Tx
from
the

H 
S
for
susceptible


infected
to
susceptible
:
effective
contact
rate 
For
a
population
of
N
individuals  
R
for
Removed

societal
factors


Parameters

 ow
long
an
infective
person
remains

H 
How
fast
will
the
disease
spread?

not
the
duration
of
the
illness 
infective
-incubation
or
duration
of
infectivity

How
many
will
be
infected?

Purpose

How
many
will
remain
uninfected?


How
long
will
the
epidemic
last?

S-I-R
Model 
Math
Models
|
Epidemiology

 
Daniel
Bernoulli


Pasteur

Initiators
1822-1895

Discretion 

Kermack
and
McKendrick
Model 
Profound
and
lasting
effect
on
many

1927 s
 ubsequent
epedemiological
models


t=5
for
every
t
assuming
population
remains
constant
during
the
epidemic 
Analysis


 (t)
=
the
number
of
susceptible
people
after
t

S

days


I
(t)
=
the
number
of
infective
people
after
t


days
 
Time
in
Days

Units

 (t)
=
the
number
of
removed
people
after
t

R 
File
in
Excel

days


Set
Up


initial
conditions


Results