Interpreting Irregular Wave Dynamic Analyses,

Part 2 – The Numbers

deepLay-eks-2021-112 February 2021

 Interpreting Irregular Wave Dynamic Analyses
- Case 1, DnV JIP Installation Suggestion ( Distribution of 40 Seeds analyses )

Statistical Distribution of
Time History Results of Gumbel Extreme distribution, The
20 seeds Peak Results.
3Hrs Simulation, Peak Main question here is what
It raised a question if 20
results will be used as probability level we need to use (
Seeds data are sufficient
statistical data 57%, 90% or others )
to get a good statistical
( 20 Seeds )
Results.
Reference : https://www.linkedin.com/posts/suwarno-gunawan-80240a17_pipelay-dynamic-analyses-activity-6566431059511132160-DB0f and DnV Installation JIP – Guidelines for Installation analyses
Interpreting Irregular Wave Dynamic Analyses
- Case1 , DnV JIP Installation Suggestion ( Distribution of 40 Seeds analyses )
The table shows the dynamic analyses
results of Pipelay analyses with Wave
Dir 0 to 180deg and Tp from 6s to
9sec for 40 different Seeds. We
summarized the Dynamic Tension (
Top & Bottom ) and Dynamic VM
Stress at Top and Bottom ( Sagbend ).

The above table shows that the Dynamic

Tension and Stress is changing with the Seed
number, and Some Seed could be relatively high
or low compare to the average Seed. But in
general, it is still below the Regular Wave
analyses.
So how we choose a Seed number?
 Interpreting Irregular Wave Dynamic Analyses
- Case1 , DnV JIP Installation Suggestion ( Distribution of 40 Seeds analyses )
Top Tension & Bottom Tension Top Tension & Stress at Tensioner

From the above graph, it shows for Irregular Wave Analyses, Seed selection is essential. If you are
choosing an unlucky seed, your results could be very conservative or not conservative enough. So, Seed
selection study has a very significant impact on dynamic analyses if you only use one Seed Selection for
your dynamic analysis.
 Interpreting Irregular Wave Dynamic Analyses
- Case1 , DnV JIP Installation Suggestion ( Distribution of 40 Seeds analyses )
Top Tension & Stress at Sagbend Stress at Tensioner & Sagbend

From the above graph, it shows for Irregular Wave Analyses, Seed selection is essential. If you are
choosing an unlucky seed, your results could be very conservative or not conservative enough. So, Seed
selection study has a very significant impact on dynamic analyses if you only use one Seed Selection for
your dynamic analysis.
Interpreting Irregular Wave Dynamic Analyses
- Case1 , DnV JIP Installation Suggestion ( Distribution of 40 Seeds analyses )

Dynamic Pipeline Tension Dynamic Pipe Von Misses Stresses

Top Bottom Tens Tower Sag You can target the Seeds, giving results close to 95% or
( Te ) ( Te ) ( Mpa ) ( Mpa ) ( Mpa )
90% or 57% probability. By doing this kind of Seed
Maximum 144.5 42.4 341.0 102.8 412.0
Average 123.1 30.3 240.5 77.5 335.1 Analyses, you can find a ‘Golden Seed’ close to the
Minimum 116.4 26.2 213.2 71.6 309.7
Regular Wave 155.6 42.6 319.9 90.5 360.9
probability number you want to achieve.
Seed 12345 123.6 27.4 227.7 77.5 323.1
Interpreting Irregular Wave Dynamic Analyses
- Case1 , DnV JIP Installation Suggestion ( Distribution of 40 Seeds analyses )

Dynamic Pipeline Tension Dynamic Pipe Von Misses Stresses

Top Bottom Tens Tower Sag You can target the Seeds, giving results close to 95% or
( Te ) ( Te ) ( Mpa ) ( Mpa ) ( Mpa )
90% or 57% Probability number. By doing this kind of
Maximum 144.5 42.4 341.0 102.8 412.0
Average 123.1 30.3 240.5 77.5 335.1 Seed Analyses, you can find a ‘Golden Seed’ close to the
Minimum 116.4 26.2 213.2 71.6 309.7
Regular Wave 155.6 42.6 319.9 90.5 360.9
probability number you want to achieve.
Seed 12345 123.6 27.4 227.7 77.5 323.1
 Interpreting Irregular Wave Dynamic Analyses
Case 2, DnV Installation JIP ( one Seed case with Maxima Distribution )

This option is much more making senses than running 20 seeds for 3 Hrs time
simulation. But it required more post-processing to choose the maxima distribution and
do Gumbel Extreme distribution. ( See our next post, Interpreting Irregular Dynamic Analyses. Part 2 - the Comparison Results )
Reference : https://www.linkedin.com/posts/suwarno-gunawan-80240a17_pipelay-dynamic-analyses-activity-6566431059511132160-DB0f and DnV Installation JIP – Guidelines for Installation analyses
 Interpreting Irregular Wave Dynamic Analyses
Case 2, DnV Installation JIP ( one Seed case with Maxima Distribution )

The above graph shows the time history of Dynamic analyses from One Selected Seed Data.
It shows the max Peak Results of 3 Hrs Simulation, with the summary below :
- Max : 211.7 Mpa
- Average : 96.8 Mpa
- Min : 12.5 Mpa
- Mean+2* Std Dev : 168.5 Mpa
- Mean+3* Std Dev : 204.3 MPa
Interpreting Irregular Wave Dynamic Analyses
Case 2, DnV Installation JIP ( one Seed case with Maxima Distribution )

10000
 Interpreting Irregular Wave Dynamic Analyses
Case 2, DnV Installation JIP ( one Seed case with Maxima Distribution )

The above table and graph show that using One Seed case with Maxima Distribution
could give lesser conservative results than using One Golden Seed with maximum
Peak from 3Hrs Time Simulation if only we agree to use Probability of 95% or less.
 THANK YOU

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