TUGAS HIDROLOGI TEKNIK

CHAPTER 12

KELOMPOK 3

Nadia Karima Izzaty 1306369466

Stefan Adrian Sitepu 1306448722
Yopy Arfan 1606844201
Ngakan Putu Purnaditya 1606843905

PROGRAM STUDI TEKNIK SIPIL

DEPARTEMEN TEKNIK SIPIL

FAKULTAS TEKNIK

UNIVERSITAS INDONESIA

2016
12.1.2 Estimate the return period of annual maximum discharges of 10,000, 20,000,
30,000, 40,000 and 50,000 cfs for the Guadalupe River at Victoria, Texas, from the data
given in Table 12.1.1. Plot a graph of flood discharge vs. return period from the results.
Penyelesaian :
Tabel.12.1.1 Annual Max. Discharge
Year 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970
0   55900 13300 23700 9190
1   58000 12300 55800 9740
2   56000 28400 10800 58500
3   7710 11600 4100 33100
4   12300 8560 5720 25200
5 38500 22000 4950 15000 30200
6 179000 17900 1730 9790 14100
7 17200 46000 25300 70000 54500
8 25400 6970 58300 44300 12700
9 4940 20600 10100 15200  
Dari Tabel 12.1.1 didapatkan Recurence Interval dan The Return Period sebagai berikut
Annual Total n The Return
Maximum Recurrence (Recurrence Period
Discharge interval Interval)
(cfs)
10000 32 10 3.20
20000 41 22 1.86
30000 41 29 1.41
40000 43 32 1.34
50000 43 34 1.26
The Return Period = Total Recurrence Interval / n (Recurrence Interval)

Flood Discharge vs The Return Period

Annual Max. Discharge (cfs)

60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50
The return Period (Year)
12.1.3 Calculate the probability that a 100-year flood will occur at a given site at least
once during the next 5, 10, 50, and 100 years. What is the chance that a 100- year flood
will not occur at this site during the next 100 years?
Penyelesaian :
Banjir 100 tahunan memiliki probabilitas (p) = 1 % atau 0.01 dalam 1 tahun

P(X≥xT at least once in N years) = 1 – ( 1 - p)N

 Probability at least once during next 5 years, N = 5

P(X≥xT at least once in 5 years) = 1 – ( 1 – 0.01)5 = 0.049
 Probability at least once during next 10 years, N = 10
P(X≥xT at least once in 10 years) = 1 – ( 1 – 0.01)10 = 0.0956
 Probability at least once during next 50 years, N = 50
P(X≥xT at least once in 50 years) = 1 – ( 1 – 0.01)50 = 0.395
 Probability at least once during next 100 years, N = 100
P(X≥xT at least once in 100 years) = 1 – ( 1 – 0.01)100 = 0.634
 Change that a 100 years flood will not occur at this site during the next 100 years =
1 - P(X≥xT at least once in 100 years) = 1 – 0.634 = 0.366 = 36.6%

12.2.1 Calculate the 20-year and 100-year return period rainfall of 10 minutes duration
at Chicago using the data given in Table 12.2.1. Use the Extreme Value Type I
distribution.
 6.s
α= √
π
6 .0.177
α= √ =0.138
π

u=x́−0.5772 α
u=0.569

T
[ T −1 )]
(
y T =−ln ln

20
y T 20
[ 20−1
=−ln ln ( )]=2.97
100
y T 100 =−ln ln
[( 1004.−1
=4.6)]
x T =u+α y T
x T 20=0.9789∈.
x T 100 =1.2038∈.

12.3.1 (a) For the annual maximum series given below, determine the 25-, 50-, and 100-
year peak discharges using the Extreme Value Type I distribution.

(b) Determine the risk that a flow equaling or exceeding 25,000 cfs will occur at this site
during the next 15 years.
(c) Determine the return period for a flow rate of 15,000 cfs.
(a) Peak discharges

  25 50 100
2.04488 2.59360 3.13827
Kt 3 3 2
20134.9 23353.4 26548.2
Xt 6 7 1

(b) 25.000 cfs occurrence probability

1
p= =0.0667
15

P ( Q≥ 25.000 cfs )=1−(1−0 .0667)15

p=0.645 %

(c) Return period

x T −x́
KT= =1.169428
s

T =8.845721 tahun
12.3.5 Solve Prob. 12.3.2 using the log-Pearson Type III distribution.

Pada tabel diatas, setiap angka dicari log-nya, sehingga dapat dihasilkan sebagai berikut

Date of Occurrence Discharge Log Discharge

1940 June 23 908 2.958085849
1941 Feb 13 1930 3.285557309
1941 March 20 3010 3.478566496
1941 May 31 2670 3.426511261
1941 June 3 2720 3.434568904
1941 June 28 2570 3.409933123
1941 Sept 8 1930 3.285557309
1941 Oct 23 2270 3.356025857
1942 June 3 1770 3.247973266
1942 June 10 1770 3.247973266
1942 June 11 1970 3.294466226
1942 Sept 3 1570 3.195899652
1942 Dec 27 3850 3.58546073
1943 Feb 20 2650 3.423245874
1943 March 15 2450 3.389166084
1943 June 2 1290 3.11058971
1943 June 20 1200 3.079181246
 1943 Aug 2 1200 3.079181246
1944 Feb 23 1490 3.173186268
1944 Feb 26 1610 3.206825876
1944 March 13 4160 3.619093331
1945 May 14 770 2.886490725
1946 Jan 5 5980 3.776701184
1946 Jan 9 2410 3.382017043
1946 March 5 1650 3.217483944
1947 March 13 1260 3.100370545
1948 Feb 28 4630 3.665580991
1948 March 15 2690 3.42975228
1948 March 19 4160 3.619093331
1949 Jan 4 1680 3.225309282
1949 Jan 15 1640 3.214843848
1949 Feb 13 2310 3.36361198
1949 Feb 18 3300 3.51851394
1949 Feb 24 3460 3.539076099
1950 Jan 25 3050 3.484299839
1950 March 5 2880 3.459392488
1950 June 2 1450 3.161368002
Average 3.333269038
STD 0.200193353
Skew -0.013829391

10 Year
( 1.27−1.282 )
K 10=1.282+ (−0.01383−0 )=1.2803
−0.1−0
y 10= ý + K 50 s y =3.333+1.2803 ×0.2=3.589

x 10=( 10 )3.589 =3881.5036 cfs

50 Year
( 2−2.054 )
K 50=2.054 + (−0.01383−0 )=2.0465
−0.1−0
y 50= ý + K 10 s y =3.333+2.0465 ×0.2=3.7423

x 50=( 10 )3.7423 =5524.589 cfs

100 Year
( 2.252−2.326 )
K 100 =2.326+ (−0.01383−0 )=2.315
−0.1−0
y 100 = ý + K 10 s y =3.333+2.315 ×0.2=3.7961

x 100 =( 10 )3.7961=6253.932cfs

12.4.2. Solve Prob. 12.4.1 using the Weibull plotting formula and compare the results of
the two plotting formulas.

b = 0 (Weibull)
b = 3/8 (Blom)
Discharge
(cfs) Rank Blom Weibull
0.96153 0.94117
303 16 8 6
0.40769 0.41176
5640 7 2 5
0.88235
1050 15 0.9 3
6020 6 0.34615 0.35294
 4 1
0.65384 0.64705
3740 11 6 9
0.59230 0.58823
4580 10 8 5
0.46923 0.47058
5140 8 1 8
0.22307 0.23529
10560 4 7 4
0.11764
12840 2 0.1 7
0.53076 0.52941
5140 9 9 2
0.77692 0.76470
2520 13 3 6
0.83846 0.82352
1730 14 2 9
0.16153 0.17647
12400 3 8 1
0.71538 0.70588
3400 12 5 2
0.03846 0.05882
14300 1 2 4
0.28461 0.29411
9540 5 5 8

16000

14000

12000

10000
Discharge (cfs)

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

Exceedance Probability

Blom Weibull
12.5.2. Using the log-Pearson Type III distribution and the hydrologic data in the
following table, compute the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year annual maximum floods
at Leaf River, Illinois. Use the U. S. Water Resources Council method for skewness and
check for outliers. The map skew for Leaf River is —0.4.

N= 11
Tahun Debit (cfs) y = log x    

1940 2160 3.3345 0.0185 -0.0025

1941 3210 3.5065 0.0013 0.0000
1942 3070 3.4871 0.0003 0.0000
1943 4000 3.6021 0.0173 0.0023
1944 3830 3.5832 0.0127 0.0014
1945 978 2.9903 0.2306 -0.1107
1946 6090 3.7846 0.0986 0.0310
1947 1150 3.0607 0.1680 -0.0688
1948 6510 3.8136 0.1177 0.0404
1949 3070 3.4871 0.0003 0.0000
1950 3360 3.5263 0.0031 0.0002
JUMLAH 0.6684 -0.1068

Parameter Metode U.S Water

Resources Council
  3.4706
Sy 0.2585
Cs -0.7557
A -0.2695
B 0.7435
V(Cs) 0.5008
W 0.3766
Cm -0.4000
 Cw -0.5339

Periode
Ulang T Faktor
(Tahun) Frekuensi KT yT QT(cfs)
2 0.0885 3.4934 3,114.81
5 0.8563 3.6919 4,919.57
10 1.2107 3.7835 6,075.02
25 1.5538 3.8722 7,451.57
50 1.7577 3.9250 8,413.20
100 1.9297 3.9694 9,320.25

Kn yH yL QH(cfs) QL(cfs)
2.088 4.010 2.931 10,241.231 852.612
12.6.5 Determine the expected probability of a 10-year event for the Walnut Creek data
(Table 12.5.1).
N= 16
T= 10

E ( Pn ) =0.1168

12.6.7 Determine the expected probability of a 10-year and a 100-year flood discharge
estimated for the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas (Prob. 12.5.5).

N= 39
T= 10

E ( Pn ) =0.1066

N= 39
T= 100
E ( Pn ) =0. 0137