QRA METHODOLOGY

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A QRA METHODOLOGY
The QRA study will be carried out using DNV Phast consequence modelling tool to model releases,
flammable & toxic gas cloud dispersion, VCE’s, jet fire’s, pool fire’s and BLEVE’s where applicable, and DNV
Safeti (Phast Risk) risk integration tool will be used for calculation of risks together with any spreadsheet
based calculation for individual risks accounting for the likelihood of particular person being there and their
ability to escape.

The methodology of this study is described in the following sections:

A.1 Data Review

A full review of the HSEIA Phase I (FEED Phase) shall be undertaken as first step so that any specific Phase
II requirements, as well as any design data which has evolved since FEED, is taking into consideration. The
documents required for conducting a QRA will be requested from Client. The documentations
supplied/available will be reviewed and a list of further information required (if any) prepared. As a minimum
the FEED QRA Report, FEED QRA Native PHAST & Safeti (PHAST Risk) Modelling Files (.psu), scaled plot
plans of applicable, Process Flow Diagrams (PFD’s), and mass balance sheets will be needed for the facilities
and the interconnecting pipeline. An indicative list of information required is detailed below however a formal
request for information will be made once more details are given during the Kick off meeting:

 FEED QRA Report

 Native QRA Phast & Safeti (PHAST Risk) Modelling Files (.psu) & Supporting Data
 Implied Cost of Fatality (for Cost Benefit Analysis)
 All Applicable PFDs
 All Applicable P&IDs
 Heat and Material Balance
 Plot plans
 Equipment Layout Drawings
 Equipment data sheet
 Unit Detailed Plot Plans
 Facility Design Basis
 Isolation and Blowdown Philosophy
 Manning Distribution for Normal Operations, Drilling Operation & Construction activities
 Drilling Details (Casing, Tubing, mass tree specifications, reservoir conditions etc.)

A.2 Methodology and Assumption Register

At the beginning of the study ABSG will submit methodology and assumption register. The methodology and
assumption register will list all the assumption which will be used to perform the study. In order to maintain
consistency ABSG will try to use methodology and assumption register developed during previous phase of
the project to maintain consistency.

A.3 Derivation of Failure Cases

For each of hazard areas identified in the HAZID a range of events will be identified which adequately cover
the wide range of potential events to give a good representation within the analysis.

Representative failure scenarios will be identified for inclusion within the consequence modelling and risk
assessment.

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A.4 Consequence Modelling
The consequence modelling for the identified loss of hydrocarbon containment scenarios will be performed
using DNV PHAST for a range of failure sizes. Flammable & Toxic gas dispersion, pool fire, jet fires and
BLEVE scenarios will be taken into consideration.

Where there is the potential for flammable gas accumulation in nearby congested regions, VCE modelling will
be undertaken. The VCE model to be employed will be discussed during the Kick-Off meeting and chosen
with ADNOC and Client approval. However, the FEED QRA VCE model will most likely be utilized.

H2S dispersion modelling has been undertaken in the FEED QRA. H 2S dispersion modeling will also be
performed using PHAST, mapping H2S contours which align to the criteria defined in ADNOC COP V4-10
guidelines. The H2S zoning results will be extracted and formatted as a dedicated H 2S zoning report, as
requested in the SOW.

A.5 Risk Assessment

The risk assessment will be undertaken using the DNV’s risk modelling and graphical risk integration tool
Safeti (PHAST Risk). DNV Safeti is ideally suited to the QRAs for offshore facilities, onshore process
facilities, pipelines the chemical industry etc. The release frequencies, ignition probabilities etc. will be the
typical values used by the industries or from the credible references.

However, all parameters such as release frequencies, modification factors, ignition probabilities, vulnerability
criteria and escalation factors will be collated into assumptions sheets which will be submitted for approval to
ADNOC and Client. Only after an agreement is made on all the assumptions will ABSG proceed with
completing the QRA study.

A.5.1 DNV Safeti Risk Analysis (QRA)

The risk contributors are built up systematically starting from release and working through ignition sources to
the calculation of the effects of cloud fire, jet fire, pool fire and explosions. The output from Safeti will be
Location Specific Individual Risk contours (LSIR), Individual Risks (IR) where population groups are specified,
Potential Loss of Life (PLL) and for societal risk, F-N curves for offsite population, if applicable. This will also
assist in determining the exclusion zone where the societal risks are excessive.

The LSIR Contours represent the expected frequency of fatality of an individual in a certain location, without
taking into consideration that there may not be anyone present at that point. Thus, the IR assumes that there
would be somebody present at that location and therefore submitted to that level of risk for 100% of the time
(24 hours/ day and 365 days/ year).

The Societal Risk is calculated from the Individual Risks considering the probability of exposure of people to
the accident scenario. The calculation requires the distribution of the population in time and space. Unlike the
Individual Risk, which is usually defined for each section of the facility, the Societal Risk is determined for the
whole population. LSIR contours will be used to define the ADNOC Land use planning zones defined in
ADNCO COPV5-3 where applicable and required.

The risks can then be assessed against internationally recognized acceptance values. Where risks are
deemed too high, suitable mitigation measures will be recommended. Where the risks are in the As Low As
reasonably Practicable (ALARP) region, an ALARP demonstration will be made (via cost benefit analysis) and
the justifiable mitigation options will be developed.

A.5.2 QRA Output

The output from the QRA will be in the form suitable for fulfilling the study objectives. It will inform ADNOC and
Client of the magnitude and likelihood of risks to onsite personnel depending on each PHASE. The output will
show:

 Risk sources ranked from most to least significant.

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  LSIR Iso-contours
 Source receivers ranked by IR & Societal risk
 F-N curves for total risk.
 Recommended control risk measures.
 Major uncertainties and their effect on the risk picture.

A.6 Deliverables
For all scoped items detailed in the introduction, the underlying deliverables will be provided in each option:

 Minutes of kick-off meeting together with HAZID conclusions.

 Formulated Assumptions Sheet
 Draft QRA Report
 Final QRA Report
 Draft H2S Zoning Report
 Final H2S Zoning Report
 PHAST & PHAST Risk Simulation & Modelling Files

A.7 Software to be used

As requested the following software will be used for executing this project:

 DNV PHAST (consequence modelling tool)

 DNV Safeti (risk assessment software)

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