Key

Challenges and Opportunities

in India’s Electricity Sector
Delhi, 2017
Regulatory Assistance Project
Resources for the Future
University of Virginia
•Excess capacity and unmet demand
•Reliability and affordability
•Inflexible long-term contracts
•Uncertainty about growth, fuel cost,
technology, etc.
•Environmental concerns
 5. All India Installed Capacity (MW) Sector-wise as on 31.08.2017

Sector THERMAL
Nuclear Hydro RES Grand Total
Coal Gas Diesel Total
State 63780.50 7113.95 363.93 71258.38 0.00 29698.00 1976.90 102933.27
Private 73986.00 10580.60 473.70 85040.30 0.00 3274.00 56326.45 144640.75
Central 55700.00 7490.83 0.00 63190.83 6780.00 11681.42 0.00 81652.25
All India 193466.50 25185.38 837.63 219489.51 6780.00 44653.42 58303.35 329226.27
RES as on 31.12.2016

All India Installed Capacity(MW) as on 31-08-2017 (Sector-Wise)

Central, 81652.25,
25% State, 102933.27,
31%
##

State 102933.27 Private,

Private 144640.75 144640.75, 44%
Central 81652.25
 6. Growth Of Rural Electrification & Pumpsets Energisation.
Plan Year Villages Electricfied (Nos.) Pump Sets Energised
1997-98 3207 284064
1998-99 2780 367244
1999-00 2093 297594
2000-01 1218 311060
2001-02 4111 316074
9th Plan 13409 1576036
2002-03 2626 651095
2003-04 2781 322968
2004-05 3884 331020
2005-06 12632 397343
2006-07 22594 611750
10th Plan 44517 2314176
Cumu. upto End of 10th
482864 # 15455554
Plan
01.04.07 to 31.03.08 5743 412667
# 01.04.08 to 31.03.09 8629 499150
01.04.09 to 31.03.10 3726 557976
01.04.10 to 31.03.11 46708 840909
01.04.11 to 31.03.12 9769 652913
11th Plan 74575 2963615
Cumu. upto End of 11th Plan 557439 18423975
Cummulative up to end of 12th Plan 594128* 211160473
# No. of villages electrified is reduced due to revision of data by states as per new definition of villiage
electrification since 2004-05
* Disclaimer: The data included in monthly Progress reports of Village electrification published by CEA is provisional in nature as
Indicated in all the reports. The data in the report prior to October, 2015 was Updated every month based on the information
received from states/distribution utilities as and when reported but the data for all the states for a particular month was generally
not made available simultaneously to reflect the countrywide picture for a particular month. Number of total villages and number of
electrified villages have also be en adjusted for changes observed from Census 2011 data. As such, each monthly report of Village
 2014-15 530.40
2015-16 545.9*
* Actual
-17
4. All India Annual per Capita consumption of Electricity Since 2006

Year Per Capita Consumption ( kWh)#

2005-06 631.4
2006-07 671.9
2007-08 717.1
2008-09 733.5
2009-10 778.6
2010-11 818.8
2011-12 883.63
2012-13 914.41
2013-14 957
2014-15 1010
2015-16 1075*
# (GrossGen.+ Net Import) / Mid-year population, *Actual

5. Average cost of power supply & average realization ( paise/KWH )

Realization(paise/unit)
 2014-15 1010
2015-16 1075*
# (GrossGen.+ Net Import) / Mid-year population, *Actual

5. Average cost of power supply & average realization ( paise/KWH )

Realization(paise/unit)
cost of supply
Year Only
(paise/unit) Including Agriculture
Agriculture
2004-05 254 209 75.68
2005-06 260 221 76.36
2006-07 276 227 74.23
2007-08 293 239 77.27
2008-09 340 263 87.13
2009-10 355 268 88.70
2010-11 398 303 119.75
2011-12 455 330 135.14
2012-13 501 376 148.67
2013-14 518 400 175
2014-15 520 412

Source:- PFC Reports on the performance of State Power Utilities

 1. Growth of Installed Capacity Since 6th Plan
(In MW)
Thermal
Plan / Year Nuclear Hydro RES (MNRE) Total
Coal Gas Diesel Total

End of 6th Plan 26310.83 541.50 177.37 27029.70 1095 14460.02 0 42584.72
End of 7th Plan 41237.48 2343.00 165.09 43745.57 1565 18307.63 18.14 63636.34
End of 8th Plan 54154.48 6561.90 293.9 61010.28 2225 21658.08 902.01 85795.37
End of 9th Plan 62130.88 11163.10 1134.83 74428.81 2720 26268.76 1628.39 105045.96
End of 10th Plan 71121.38 13691.71 1201.75 86014.84 3900 34653.77 7760.6 132329.21
End of 11th Plan 112022.38 18381.05 1199.75 131603.18 4780 38990.4 24503.45 199877.03
End of 12th Plan 193466.50 25185.38 837.629 219489.51 6780 44653.42 58303.35 329226.27
Captive Generation Capacity in Industries having demand of 1 MW and above, grid interactive (as on 31-03-16) = 48279 MW*

*Provisional

All India Generating Installed Capacity ( MW ) (As on 31.08.2017 )

##

Total Installed Capacity 329226.27 MW

 Chart : 8A
SECTORWISE GROWTH OF GENERATION CAPACITY (MW)
2000-01 TO 2014-15

120000.00

1,04,122
95,079
92,265
100000.00

89,125
87,417

85,919
82,905
79,309
77,523
73,579
73,235

84,838

72,521
80000.00

69,161

68,859
67,505
66,582
65,512
63,721

59,682

68,126
65,360
50,759
60000.00

47,479
45,777
45,027
42,037

54,276
36,917
35,547

35,450
32,854
29,944

40000.00

29,014
28,734
27,969

22,879
20,511
16,713
14,135
13,718
12,325
11,351
10,800

20000.00
9,936

0.00
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
State 63721 65512 66582 67505 69161 73235 73579 77523 79309 82905 87417 85919 89125 92265 95079
Private 9936 10800 11351 12325 13718 14135 16713 20511 22879 29014 35450 54276 68859 84838 104122
Central 27969 28734 29944 32854 35547 36917 42037 45027 45777 47479 50759 59682 65360 68126 72521

16
 Chart : 15A
SECTORWISE GROWTH OF ENERGY GENERATION (GWh)
2000-01 TO 2014-15

409022
450000

386037
380371

384905

395102
374209
368888

365812
350844
400000

327731

317833
315365
304647

299562

366803
350000 291360
290244

364005

233004 364906

226245 350403
278980

277160
272806
253007
300000

234326
220475

281760
205082

250000
193288
184079
178243

149803
200000

140878
119918
150000

89798
80932
66803
61763
58616

100000
55372
48045
43981

43116

50000

0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
State 278980 290244 291360 304647 315365 327731 350844 368888 374209 380371 386037 409022 365812 350403 366803
Private 43981 43116 48045 55372 58616 61763 66803 80932 89798 119918 140878 149803 233004 226245 281760
Central 178243 184079 193288 205082 220475 234326 253007 272806 277160 299562 317833 364005 364906 384905 395102

29
 Chart : 13
ALL INDIA PLF (%) OF THERMAL POWER STATIONS
(COAL AND LIGNITE BASED)

78.60

77.68
77.20
76.80

75.08
74.80
80

74.30

73.32
72.70
72.20

69.93
69.90
69.00
67.30

65.55
64.70

64.60
70

64.46
64.40
63.00
61.00

60.00
57.10
56.50

56.50

55.30
55.00

60
53.90
53.20
52.40

50
PLF (%)

40

30

20

10

0 1985- 1986- 1987- 1988- 1989- 1990- 1991- 1992- 1993- 1994- 1995- 1996- 1997- 1998- 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011-1 2012- 2013- 2014-
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 2 13 14 15
PLF (%) 52.40 53.20 56.50 55.00 56.50 53.90 55.30 57.10 61.00 60.00 63.00 64.40 64.70 64.60 67.30 69.00 69.90 72.20 72.70 74.80 74.30 76.80 78.60 77.20 77.68 75.08 73.32 69.93 65.55 64.46

Years

26
 above, the anticipated power supply position of the country, region-wise
emerges as presented in the Table below:

Anticipated All India Power Supply Position for the year 2017-18

Energy Peak
State / Requiremen Surplus (+)/ Availabilit Surplus (+)/
Availability Demand
Region t Deficit (-) y Deficit (-)
(MU) (MU) (MU) (%) (MW) (MW) (MW) (%)
Northern 373,301 409,715 36,415 9.8 56,800 60,600 3,800 6.7
Western 366,956 414,595 47,639 13.0 48,842 57,224 8,382 17.2
Southern 323,146 347,051 23,905 7.4 44,908 45,355 447 1.0
Eastern 150,151 149,871 -280 -0.2 21,577 23,743 2,166 10.0
North-
16,106 16,595 488 3.0 2,727 2,802 75 2.7
Eastern
All India 1,229,661 1,337,828 108,167 8.8 169,130 180,601 11,471 6.8

i
As per LGBR, the forecast of all India energy requirement, energy availability
eak demand and peak met for the year 2016-17 were greater than the actua
igures by 3.5 to 8.5%. Forecast vis-à-vis actual power supply position of th
ountry is given below:

Deviation
Power Supply Position LGBR Actual
(%)
Energy Requirement (MU) 1,214,642 1,142,929 -5.9
Energy Availability (MU) 1,230,677 1,135,334 -7.7
Peak Demand (MW) 165,292 159,542 -3.5
Peak Demand Met (MW) 171,440 156,934 -8.5
 Annex-I

Month-wise power supply position of India in 2016-17

Peak (MW) Energy (MU)
Year Peak Surplus(+) / (%) Surplus/ Energy Surplus(+) / (%) Surplus/
Peak Met Availability
Demand Deficit(-) Deficit requirement Deficit(-) Deficit

Apr-16 152,974 149,802 -3,172 -2.1 98,671 97,290 -1,381 -1.4

May-16 150,944 149,971 -973 -0.6 99,442 98,836 -606 -0.6

Jun-16 149,149 148,030 -1,119 -0.8 96,843 96,277 -566 -0.6

Jul-16 147,453 146,289 -1,165 -0.8 96,631 96,248 -383 -0.4

Aug-16 151,206 148,746 -2,460 -1.6 99,013 98,489 -524 -0.5

Sep-16 159,542 156,934 -2,608 -1.6 98,278 97,479 -799 -0.8

Oct-16 155,113 153,980 -1,133 -0.7 95,908 95,356 -551 -0.6

Nov-16 148,973 148,217 -756 -0.5 88,302 87,652 -650 -0.7

Dec-16 145,187 144,392 -795 -0.5 91,827 91,160 -667 -0.7

Jan-17 148,245 147,094 -1,151 -0.8 92,531 91,908 -623 -0.7

Feb-17 150,121 149,322 -799 -0.5 86,723 86,267 -455 -0.5

Mar-17 155,139 154,148 -991 -0.6 98,759 98,370 -389 -0.4

Annual 159,542 156,934 -2,608 -1.6 1,142,929 1,135,334 -7,595 -0.7

 the recent past.
•  Most of the open access is on short-term basis (day ahead)
•  40% increase in capOve consumpOon in Gujarat (29,000 MU) and Rajasthan (11,300 MU)
between FY11 and FY15
–  Falling prices of renewable energy
•  Latest discovered tariffs < Rs.4/kWh
•  Growing surplus power and its financial impact

% of Fixed Cost Payments to Fixed cost payments for backing
State DISCOM Backing Down % of total fixed cost
Contracted due to Backing Down down as compared to agricultural
(2015-16) Reported (MW) payments to generators
Capacity (%) (Rs. Cr) subsidies (%)

Rajasthan 1,798 14% 1,051 16% 59%

Punjab 3,457 27% 3,006 33% 51%

Maharashtra* 4,231 19% 2,828 21% 59%
Madhya
2,444 17% 2,177 28% 40%
Pradesh
Gujarat 5,525 30% 3,823 36% 348%
Source: Various regulatory submissions and tariff orders
*Maharashtra data for the year 2016-17
3
 Capacity addition for 7th -12th plan
200,000

Renewable Hydro

Nuclear Thermal
150,000
117,750
MWs

32,741

100,000
5,488

12,000
4,800
16,743
50,000 4,337
86,727
67,000
6,132 45,588
3,848 3,350
4,611 8,385
16,716 17,265 13,419 11,586
-
7th Plan 8th Plan plus two 9th Plan 10th Plan 11th Plan 12th Plan 2017-22
annual plans
Source: MNRE, CEA 20
Indian RE: 2016-17 & likely over next ten years

Source: MNRE, CEA 19

Source wise share in total capacity (1985-2017)
100% 0% 0% 1% 2%
6%
12%
90% 18%

29% 25% 25%

34% 33%
80% 26%
20%
14%
2.6% 2.6%
70% 2.5%
2.4% 2.1%
2.9%
2.6%
11%
60%
Renewable 2.2%

Hydro 50%
Nuclear
Thermal 40%
69% 71% 71%
65% 66% 67%
63%
30%
54%

20%

10%

0%
March, 1985, March, 1990, March, 1997, March, 2002, March, 2007, March, 2012, March, 2017, March, 2022
6th Plan end 7th Plan end 8th Plan end 9th Plan end 10th Plan end 11th Plan end 12th Plan end

Source: MNRE, CEA 18

RE Generation: Seasonality

Generation in
2016-17: 82 BU

Wind and small hydro linked to monsoon; bagasse picks up post monsoon

Source: CEA 4
 RE Generation: Diurnal variation
250,000

All India daily load and net load curve for 2022
204,158
200,000

150,000
Load (MWs)

All India Load Curve

133,741
All India Net Load Curve
100,000

50,000
Seasonal differences between
load and net-load curve will differ significantly
Hours of the day
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Source: CEA, 19th EPS, net load curve assumes 175 GW in place considering a typical day 5
 Renewable energy: A feasible and lucra.ve op.on.
14 14 14

Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Maharashtra

12 12 12

10 10 10
Energy Charge (Rs/kWh)

Energy Charge (Rs/kWh)

Energy Charge (Rs/kWh)

8 8 8
55% of sales have 53% of sales 52% of sales
energy charge have energy have energy
above solar price charge above charge above
6 6 6
solar price solar price

4 4 4

2 2 2

0 0 0
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
Cumula.ve sales of DISCOM (MU) Cumula.ve sales of DISCOM (MU) Cumula.ve sales of DISCOM (MU)
The overall impact (Rs/kWh) of rooftop on utility revenue in FY 2022 is shown in the
following graph. The graph also depicts the impact of rooftop on various factors of utility
revenue:
Impact on Utility Revenue - FY 22 (INR per Unit)

6
4
2
0
Rs. /kWh

-1.29 -1.89
-2 -2.87
-1.94 -3.03
-4 -3.04 -3.26 -3.92
-3.09 -5.75
-6 -5.45 -5.45 -5.59
-7.30 -6.49 -6.27 -6.81
-8
-10
-12

DGVCL
MSEDCL

TPDDL

TSSPDCL

TSNPDCL
BSES Y

CESU
BSES R

DVVNL

PVVNL
NESCO

APEPDCL

APSPDCL
WESCO
SOUTHCO

TANGEDCO

PGVCL
Revenue reduction Grid charge reduction to utitliy (10%) Banking charge loss to utility
Deemed RPO benefits T& D loss benefits Environmental benefits
Total

Utilities with lowGarnering Support from Distribution Utilities <Deloitte and Shakti>
Source: Rooftop Solar – energy charge have lower negative impact. Utilities having
high T&D losses will gain from rooftop solar

o Case-2: Impact of solar rooftop on Cross Subsidy

 Rooftop Solar – Garnering Support from Distribution Utilities

Impact on Utility Revenue from Cross Subsidy- FY 22 (INR per Unit)

7 10

5
5
3 5.66 5.01 5.39
4.24
3.27 3.33 3.10 3.49 3.18 0
Rs. / kWh

1 2.46 2.13 2.21

0.54 1.07 0.68 1.12
-0.10
-1 -5
-3
-10
-5

-7 -15

DGVCL
TPDDL
MSEDCL

BSES Y
BSES R

TSSPDCL
CESU

TSNPDCL
NESCO

APEPDCL

APSPDCL

DVVNL

PVVNL
WESCO

TANGEDCO
SOUTHCO

PGVCL
Cross-subsidy loss Grid charge reduction to utitliy (10%) Banking charge loss to utility
Deemed RPO benefits T& D loss benefits Environmental benefits
Total

Source: Rooftop Solar – Garnering Support from Distribution Utilities <Deloitte and Shakti>
Utilities with low cross subsidy levels will have lower impact. Consumer
categories having energy charge lower than COS & adopting rooftop solar will
benefit utilities.