3.

Probability
Learning Outcomes:
-Demonstrate knowledge of key probability concepts
-Understand events and how to assign probabilities to them
-Calculate probabilities involving complementary events, union of two events, intersection of two events,
independent events, conditional probabilities, and Bayes’ Theorem.

3.1 DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY

Probability is the measure of the likelihood of an event. It can only assume values between 0 and 1.

The event is The event

Figure 3.1 The event equally likely is almost
is not likely to occur as to certain to
to occur not occur occur
The event The event
cannot is certain to
occur occur

Probability 0 0.5 1
Key Probability Concepts
• An experiment is a process that leads to the occurrence of one and only one of several
outcomes.
• An outcome is a particular result of an experiment.
• An event is a collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment.
The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment.

Example 3.1.1: Experiment - Rolling of a six sided die

Sample Space  S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Outcome  {4} for example
Event (e.g. even outcomes)  {2, 4, 6}
Probability (e.g. of obtaining a 5)  1/6 (since there is only one 5 in the 6 possible outcome’s)

Notation: P(A)  the probability of event A occurring.

Exercise 3.1.1: A garage offers a breakdown recovery service for motorists that is available every day of the
year. According to their records the number of call-outs they received per day last year were:

Number of call-outs 0 1 2 3 4
Number of days 68 103 145 37 12

What is the probability that:

(a) They receive two call-outs in a day? (d) They receive less than four call-outs in a day?
(b) They receive two or fewer call-outs in a day? (e) They receive more than two call-outs in a day?
(c) They receive one or more call-outs in a day?

(a) 145/365 = 0.397 (b) 316/365 = 0.866 (c) 297/365 = 0.814 (d) 353/365 = 0.967 (e) 49/365 = 0.134

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 3. Probability
3.2 ASSIGNING PROBABILITIES – Classical, Empirical, Subjective Approaches
a) Classical Approach - assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur
Example: Tossing a coin, rolling a die, days of a week…

number of ways A can occur n ( A)

P ( A )= =
total number of possible outcomes n ( S )
Example 3.2.1: What is the probability of obtaining exactly 1 head on the flip two coins?
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT} P(exactly 1 head) = 2/4 =0.5

Example 3.2.2: A sample of 1000 participants for testing the effectiveness of a new drug has the following
blood type distribution:
Table 3.2.1
Blood Type A AB B O
Frequency 252 30 50 668

252 30 50 668
P ( A )= =0.252 , P ( AB )= =0.03 , P ( B )= =0.05 , P ( O ) = =0.668
1000 1000 1000 1000

b) Empirical Approach (or relative frequency) - The probability of an event A is approximately the number of
times event A is observed divided by the number of repetitions of the experiment.
Over a large number of trials, the empirical probability of an event will approach its true probability (law of
large numbers).
the number of ×event A isobserved
P ( A )=
total number of repetitions of the experiment
Example 3.2.3: If over the last 200 days, a student has missed classes 35 times. Then the probability that the
student will miss the next class is 35/200.

c) Subjective Approach - Probabilities obtained based on knowledge, experience, or an educated guess.

Example 3.2.4: The following are examples of subjective probabilities.
1. There is a 70% chance of rain tomorrow.
2. There is a 90% chance that a patient will survive an operation.
3. There is a 45% chance that the Canadian hockey team will win gold at the next Olympics.

PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITIES
Given some process (or experiment) with n unique outcomes, O1, O2, O3 . . . On,
1. the probability of any outcome Oi is between 0 and 1. That is, 0 ≤ P(Oi) ≤ 1.
2. P(O1) + P(O2) + P(O3) + P(O4) + … + P(On) = 1

Exercise 3.2.1: Suppose a “fun size” bag of M&Ms contains 9 brown candies, 6 yellow candies, 7 red candies,
4 orange candies, 2 blue candies, and 2 green candies. Suppose that a candy is randomly selected.
(a) What is the probability that it is brown?
(b) What is the probability that it is blue?
(c) What is the probability that it is not blue?

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 3. Probability
(a) 9/30 = 0.3 (b) 2/30 = 0.067 (c) 28/30 = 0.933

3.3 COUNTING RULES

1. Multiplication Rule (Fundamental Counting Rule): If an event A can occur in m possible ways and
another event B can occur in n possible ways, then both events can occur in m×n different ways.

Example 3.3.1: Suppose Joy has 4 shirts and 3 pants. In how many different ways can she dress?
Solution: 4×3 =12 ways

Example 3.3.2: A thief steals an ATM card and must randomly guess the correct pin code that consists of
four digits (0 through 9) that must be entered in the correct order.
a) How many PIN codes are possible if repetition of digits is not allowed?
b) How many PIN codes are possible if repetition of digits is allowed?
Solution: a) 10×9×8×7= 5040 codes b) 10×10×10×10 = 10,000 codes

Example 3.3.3: The menu of a particular restaurant lists three appetizers, eight entrées, four desserts, and
three drinks. Assuming a meal consists of one appetizer, one entrée, one dessert, and one drink, how many
different meals can be ordered?
Solution: a) 3×8×4×3= 288 different meals

2. Factorial Rule: used when we need to find the number of different arrangements of n different items.
n! (n factorial) = n(n-1)(n-2)(n-3)…1.
For example, 5! = 5×4×3×2×1 = 120 [Excel: =FACT(5)]
You will find the factorial button (!) on your calculator.

Example 3.3.4: In how many ways can you arrange 4 books labelled A, B, C, and D on a shelf?
Solution: 4! = 24 different ways

A B C D A C D B B A C D B C D A C B A D C A D B D B C A D C A B
A B D C A D B C B A D C B D A C C B D A C D B A D B A C D A B C
A C B D A D C B B C A D B D C A C A B D C D A B D C B A D A C B

Example 3.3.5: In how many ways can you arrange the letters of HUMBER?
Solution: 6! = 720 different ways

Example 3.3.6: Seven top rookie players are waiting to be drafted into football teams. How many different
ways can they be selected from first to last?
Solution: 7! = 5040 different ways

Factorial Rule with repeated (duplicated) items:

If out of n objects, where there are n1 duplicates of type 1, n2 duplicates of type 2, ..., and nk duplicates of type
k, the number of different permutations (arrangements) is

n!
n1 ! n2 ! …n k !

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 3. Probability

Example 3.3.7: How many different 8-digit numbers can be written using all of the following eight digits:
1,2,2,2,3,3,7,7?
Solution: There are three 2s, two 3s, and two 7s. The number of different 8-digit numbers possible is
8! 40320 40320
= = =1680
3! × 2! × 2! 6× 2× 2 24

Example 3.3.8: In how many ways can you arrange the letters of each of the following Canadian cities?
BELLEVILLE TORONTO MISSISSAUGA SASKATOON
Solution:
BELLEVILLE TORONTO MISSISSAUGA SASKATOON
3Es, 4Ls 2Ts, 3Os 2Is, 4Ss, 2As 2Ss, 2As, 2Os
10 ! 7! 11 ! 9!
=25,200 =420 =415,800 =45,360
3! 4 ! 2! 3 ! 2! 4 ! 2 ! 2! 2 ! 2 !

3. Permutation & Combination (selecting a subset)

In a permutation (xyz and zyx are different) the order of occurrence of the objects (or the arrangement) is
important but in combination (xyz and zyx are the same) the order of occurrence of the objects does not
matter.
Permutation: he number of different ways of selecting r objects from n different objects (when order
n!
. (You will find the nPr button on your calculator)
❑
matters) is given by n Pr =
( n−r ) !
Combination: The number of different ways of selecting r objects from n different objects (when order does
n!
. (You will find the nCr button on your calculator)
❑
not matter) is given by nC r=
( n−r ) ! r !

Example 3.3.9: A company has to select 3 candidates from a pool of 7 applicants. How many different ways
can this be done if
a) the candidates occupy distinct (different) positions at the company?
b) the candidates occupy identical (same) positions at the company?

Solution:
a) If the positions are distinct, then it matters which of the 3 positions is occupied by each candidate. In
essence, suppose the first 3 candidates were selected. Then [c1, c2, c3] (candidate 1 occupies first
position, candidate 2 second, and candidate 3 occupies third) will be different from [c1, c3, c2] and
from [c3, c2, c1]. We therefore apply the permutation rule:
The number of ways of selecting 3 from 7 different items when order matters is
❑ 7! 7!
7 P 3= = =210[ Excel :=PERMUT (7,3)]
( 7−3 ) ! 4 !

b) If the positions are identical, then any of the 3 candidates can occupy any of the positions. So order
does not matter and we apply the combination rule:

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 3. Probability
❑ 7! 7!
7C 3= = =35[ Excel :=COMBIN (7,3)]
3 ! ( 7−3 ) ! 3 ! 4 !

Example 3.3.10: A club has 12 members.

a) In how many ways can four members of the club be chosen to serve on a committee?
b) In how many ways can a president, vice president, secretary, and treasurer be chosen from the club?

Solution:
a) If the four members are only serving on a committee, then the order of selection is not important.
❑
Therefore, the number of ways of selecting them will be 12C4 =495
b) If the four members are occupying different positions, then the order of selection is important.
❑
Therefore, the number of ways of selecting them will be 12P 4=11,880

Exercise 3.3.1: A professor is to be assigned to teach 8 different courses in 8 different class periods per week.
If exactly one course meets each period, how many different assignments of courses to these class periods
are possible? 8! = 40320

Exercise 3.3.2: Canadian postal codes consist of three letter (A-Z) and three digits (0-9), which alternate and
start with a letter. For example, M9W 5L7 is a postal code from Toronto, Ontario.
a) How many postal codes can be created using this system? 26*10*26*10*26*10 = 17576000
b) How many postal codes could be created if no digit or letter can be repeated? 26*10*25*9*24*8 =
11232000

Exercise 3.3.3: When testing for current in a cable with six colour-coded wires, an electrician used a meter to
test two wires at a time. How many different tests are required for every possible pairing of two wires? 6C2 =
15

Exercise 3.3.4: How many different three letter codes are there if only the letters A, B, C, D, E, F are used and
no letter is used more than once? 6P3 = 120

Exercise 3.3.5: Outside a home, there is a 10-key keypad with letters A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I and J that can be
used to open the garage if the correct four-letter code is entered. How many codes are possible?
a) If each key may be used only once.
b) If each key may be used more than once.

Exercise 3.3.6: Ten managers gather for a meeting. If each manager shakes hands with each other manager
exactly once, what is the total number of handshakes? 10C2 = 45

Exercise 3.3.7: A professor plans to choose 3 Marketing students and 4 Accounting students from a group
consisting of 8 Marketing students and 10 Accounting students. How many different groupings are possible?
8C3×10C4 = 56(210) = 11760

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 3. Probability
3.4 COMPLEMENT RULE, INTERSECTION, UNION, AND THE ADDITION RULE
The complement of event A is defined to be the event consisting of all outcomes that are “not in A”. We will
denote the complement of event A by Á∨A ' ∨ AC . P ( Á )=1−P ( A )∨P ( A ) + P ( Á )=1

Á
The Venn diagram in Figure 3.2
illustrates the concept of a complement. A
Figure 3.2

Example 3.4.1: A fair die is rolled once. What is the probability that the outcome is not a “5”?
1 1 5
Solution: P ( Rolling 5 )= ⇒ P( Not rolling 5)=1−P ( Rolling 5 ) =1− =
6 6 6

Intersection of Events: The intersection of events A and B (or A ∩ B) consists of all outcomes that belong
to both A and B (Fig. 3.3). P(A and B) is referred to as the joint probability of events A and B.

Union of Events: The union of events A and B (A or B) or (A ∪ B) is the event consisting of outcomes that
belong to either A or B or both (Fig. 3.4).

Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events A and B are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur together (they
have no outcomes in common). That is P(A and B) = 0 (Fig. 3.5).

Figure 3.3 Figure 3.4 Figure 3.5

A and B

A B A B A
B

Intersection of two events Union of two events A and B are mutually exclusive

Example 3.4.2: Let A = {1, 2, 4, 6} B = {2, 4, 5} C = {3, 6, 7}

Then A and B = {2, 4} A and C = {6} B and C = { }
A or B = {1, 2, 4, 5, 6} A or C = {1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7}
What can you say about B and C?

THE ADDITION RULE

Mutually Exclusive Events: Mutually exclusive events cannot occur at the same time. If two events A and B
are mutually exclusive, the probability of one or the other events occurring is simply the sum of their
probabilities.
If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P ( A∨B )=P ( A ∪B )=P ( A ) + P( B)

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 ∪=¿
3. Probability

Example 3.4.3: A bag contains 4 red, 2 blue, and 4 yellow marbles. If a single marble is chosen at random
from the bag, what is the probability that it is blue or yellow?

2 ( ) 4
Solution: P ( ¿ )= P ¿=
10 10
2 4 6
P ( ¿∨¿ ) =P ( ¿ ) + P ( ¿ )= + = =0.6
10 10 10

General Addition Rule: If two events A and B are not mutually exclusive (A and B are joint events), the
probability that A or B will occur is
P ( A∨B )=P ( A ∪B )=P ( A ) + P ( B ) −P( A∧B) General Addition Rule

Example 3.4.4: There are 13 Law Clerks and 7 Paralegals working at a Law Office. 9 of the Law Clerks and 3
of the Paralegals are females. A staff member is selected at random from the office. Find the probability that
the person selected
i) is a Law Clerk or a Male.
ii) is neither a Law Clerk nor a Male.

Solution:
Table 3.2
Paralegal
Law Clerks Total
s
Males 4 4 8
Females 9 3 12
Total 13 7 20

13 8 4 17
P ( Law Clerk ∨Male )=P ( Law Clerk )+ P ( Male )−P ( Law Clerk ∧Male ) = + − = =0.85
20 20 20 20

P ( neither Law Clerk nor Male )=1−P ( Law Clerk ∨Male )=1−0.85=0.15

Example 3.4.5: The probability that a student owns a Windows laptop is 0.8, and the probability that a
student owns an iPhone is 0.45. If the probability that a student owns both is 0.35, what is the probability that
a given student owns
i) either a Windows laptop or an iPhone? Windows
ii) a Windows laptop but not an iPhone? iPhone
iii) an iPhone but not a Windows laptop? 0.1 Figure 3.6
0.45 0.35
iv) neither a Windows laptop nor an iPhone?

Solution:

i¿ P ( Windows∨iPhone )=P ( Windows )+ P ( iPhone )−P ( Windows∧iPhone )¿ 0.8+0.45−0.35=0.9

ii ¿ P ( Windows but not iPhone )=0.8−0.35=0.45

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 3. Probability
iii ¿ P ( iPhone but not Windows )=0.45−0.35=0.1

iv ¿ P ( Neither Windowsnor iPhone )=1−P ( Windows∨iPhone )=1−0.9=0.1

3.5 THE MULTIPLICATION RULE & TREE DIAGRAMS
Independent events: Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of
the occurrence of the other.

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events: If events A and B are independent, then the probability of
both occurring is
P( A∧B)=P ( A )× P (B)

Example 3.5.1: A coin is tossed and a die is rolled. What is the probability of obtaining a “Head” and a “4”?
(These 2 events are independent. Why?)
1 1
Solution: P ( Head )= P ( 4 )=
2 6
1 1 1
P ( Head∧4 ) =P ( Head ) × P ( 4 ) = × =
2 6 12

TREE DIAGRAMS: A tree diagram is a visual way of representing a sequence of events. Tree diagrams are
very useful in probability as they display all possible outcomes in a sample space.

Example 3.5.2: Assume 90% of people are right handed. If two people are selected at random, what is the
probability that

i) both are right-handed,

ii) both are left-handed,
iii) the first person is left-handed and the second is right handed,
iv) one is left-handed and the other is right handed,
v) at least one is right handed.

Solution: Let R = selected person is right-handed L = selected person is left-handed

P ( R )=0.9 P ( L )=1−P ( R )=1−0.9=0.1

Tree Diagram
i¿ P ( RR )=0.9 × 0.9=0.81
ii ¿ P ( ¿ ) =0.1 ×0.1=0.01
iii ¿ P( LR)=0.1× 0.9=0.09
iv ¿ P ( LR∨RL )=0.09+0.09=0.18
v ¿ P ( RR∨RL∨LR )=0.81+ 0.09+ 0.09=0.99 2 ndselecti
Probabil
1 stselect on R RR 0ty
i
.9(0.9) =
ion 0.81
R RL 0.9(0
Alternative Approach for v) L .1) =
0.09
L R
Prof. Joshua Emmanuel LR 0.1(0 Page 8 of 15
.9) =
0.09
L LL 0.1(0.1
)=
 3. Probability
Note that P ( at least one )=1−P ¿ ¿
P ¿ handed ¿ ¿=1−P ¿¿ 1−P ( ¿ ) =1−0.01=0 .99

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 3. Probability
Example 3.5.3: A coin is tossed three times. Draw a tree diagram and state the sample space. Find the
probability of obtaining i) exactly 3 heads ii) at least 2 heads iii) at least one head

Solution: Sample Space S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, TTT}

H
HH
H H
i) P(3 heads)=P(HHH) = 1/8
T H
HT
ii) P(at least 2 heads) = 4/8
H T
H
H
iii) P(at least one head) T
= 1 – P(no head) T H
H
= 1 – P(3 tails) = 1 – 1/8 = 7/8 T
H TT
HH
T
H
T T
H
T H T
TT
Dependent events: Two events are dependent if the occurrence of one H
affects the outcome or occurrence of
the other. T TTT

Multiplication Rule for Dependent Events: If events A and B are dependent, then the probability of both
occurring is
P( A∧B)=P ( A )× P (B∨ A)

Example 3.5.4: A BSTA class comprised of 8 male students and 32 female students. If two students are
selected from that class, one after the other, without replacement, what is the probability that

i) both are female

ii) both are male
iii) the first is female and the second is male
iv) at least one is female
v) they are male and female

Solution:
32 31
i¿ P ( F 1 F 2) =P ( F1 ) × P ( F 2∨F1 ) = × =0.636
40 39
8 7
ii ¿ P ( M 1 M 2) =P ( M 1) × P ( M 2∨M 1 ) = × =0.036
40 39
32 8
iii ¿ P ( F1 M 2 )=P ( F1 ) × P ( M 2∨F 1 )= × =0.164
40 39
iv ¿ P ( at least one female )=1−P ( both male )=1−P ( M 1 M 2 )=1−0.036=0.964

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 3. Probability
32 8 8 32
v ¿ P ( F1 M 2∨M 1 F 2) =P ( F1 M 2) + P ( M 1 F 2 )= × + × =0.164 +0.164=0.328
40 39 40 39

4.6 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

The conditional probability of an event B given an event A is the probability that an event B occurs after
event A has already occurred.
Notation: P(B|A) = Conditional probability of B given A. P(A|B) = Conditional probability of A given B.

P ( A∧B ) P ( A∧B )
P ( B| A )= P ( A|B )=
P( A) P( B)

Example 3.6.1: In a group of subjects undergoing drug rehabilitation, 63% were alcohol abusers, 45% were
domestic violence offenders, and 36% were both.
Let A = subject was abusing alcohol D = subject was domestic violence offender

What is the probability that a randomly selected subject

i) was abusing alcohol given that the person was a domestic violence offender
ii) was a domestic violence offender given that the person was an alcohol abuser

Solution: P ( A )=0.63 P ( D )=0.45 P ( A∧D ) =0.36

P ( A∧D ) 0.36
i¿ P ( A|D ) = = =0.8∨80 %
P ( D) 0.45

P ( A∧D ) 0.36
ii ¿ P ( D| A )= = =0.571∨57.1 %
P(A) 0.63

Example 3.6.2: The following table lists the joint probabilities associated with smoking among High school
students in Canada.

Table 4.4 What is the probability that a student selected at random

Male Female i) has never smoked,
Smoked 0.221 0.179 ii) is a female and smoked,
Never Smoked 0.299 0.301 iii) is a male given that has never smoked,
iv) has smoked if the student is female.

Solution: Let M =Male F=Female S=Smoked Ś=Never Smoked

i¿ P( Ś)=0.6 Male Female Total

Smoked 0.221 0.179 0.4
ii ¿ P( F∧S )=0.179 Never Smoked 0.299 0.301 0.6
Total 0.52 0.48 1
P( M ∧Ś ) 0.299
iii ¿ P ( M| Ś ¿= = =0.4983
P ( Ś ) 0.6

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 3. Probability
P (S∧F) 0.179
iv ¿ P(S∨F )= = =0.3720
P(F) 0.48

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 3. Probability
Exercise 3.6.1: The following table below shows the distribution of Blood Types and Rhesus (Rh) factor of a
random sample of 50 patients at a hospital.
Table 3.6.1
  A B AB O Total
Rh+ 17 5 3 17 42
Rh- 3 1 0 4 8
Tota
l 20 6 3 21 50

If a patient is selected at random from this sample, what is the probability that the person

i) has type A and Rh+

ii) has blood type AB

iii) is not O+

iv) has A or B blood type

v) has Rh+ or has type A

vi) has type O blood given that the person is Rh+

vii) has Rh- given that the person has type B

viii) has type A given Rh+

References:
W._Michael_Kelley,_Robert_A._Donnelly (2009): The Humongous book of statistics problems (Alpha)
John Buglear (2001): Stats means business- a guide to business statistics (Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann)
Mario F. Triola (2015): Essentials of statistics Mario F. Triola (Pearson Education)

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 3. Probability
Homework

1. The access code for a home security system consists of four digits from 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. How many
access codes are possible if
a) each digit can be used only once and not repeated?
b) each digit can be repeated?
c) each digit cannot be repeated and the first digit must be 1, 2, or 3?
d) each digit can be repeated but the first digit cannot be 1,2, or 3?
e) only a group of 4 numbers is required (rearrangements do not matter)?

2. Canadians trust “211” when seeking information and services to deal with life’s challenges. Suppose “211” has 4
specialists in Health, 7 specialists in Welfare, 5 specialists in Immigration, and 4 specialists in Housing. If a
specialist is selected at random from this group, find the probability that the specialist
a) specializes in Welfare
b) specializes in Health, Immigration, or Housing
c) does not specialize in Immigration.

3. In a shipment of 25 pagers to a law office, two are defective. If two pagers are randomly selected and tested,
find the probability that both are defective
a) if the first one is replaced after it has been tested. b) if the first one is not replaced after it has been tested.

4. On New Year’s Eve, the probability of a person driving while intoxicated is 0.32, the probability of a person
having a driving accident is 0.09, and the probability of a person having a driving accident while intoxicated
(both intoxicated and has an accident) is 0.06.
a) What is the probability of having auto accident or driving while intoxicated on New Year’s Eve?
b) If a person is driving while intoxicated, what is the chance that he/she will have an auto accident?
c) What is the chance that a person will drive while intoxicated and not get into an auto accident?

5. The 120 employees at a factory were asked which would best improve their working life: better promotion
prospects, higher pay or more respect from other staff. The results are tabulated below.
Job Type
Response Manual Clerical Managerial
Better promotion prospects 12 12 3
Higher pay 53 19 2
More respect 7 6 6

a) What is the probability that an employee selected more respect?

b) What is the probability that a manual employee selected higher pay?
c) What is the probability that an employee is a clerical worker or selected better promotion prospects?
d) What is the probability that an employee selected more respect and is a manager?
e) What proportion of those that selected more respect are clerical employees?
f) What is the probability that a managerial employee does not select higher pay?

1 a) 10P4 = 5,040 b) 104 = 10,000 c) 3∙9∙8∙7 = 1,512 d) 7∙10∙10∙10 = 7,000 e) 10C4 = 210
7 5
2 a) =0.35 b) 1−0.35=0.65 c) 1− =0.75
20 20
2 2 2 1
3 a) × =0.0064 b) × =0.0033
25 25 25 24
4 a) 0.32+0.09-0.06 = 0.35 b) 0.06/0.32 = 0.1875 c) 1 – 0.35 = 0.65
5 a) 19/120 b) 53/72 c) 52/120 d) 6/120 e) 6/19 f) 9/11

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 3. Probability

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