Binomial and Poisson

Distribution

D R . F L O R E N T I N A P U N G K Y P R A M E S T I , S T. , M T.
 Random Variable

Random variabel = variabel acak

 variabel dlm aljabar
Berhubungan dgn random process
Misal: melempar sebuah coin, melempar dadu
Contoh: flipping coin
X ➔ 1 ; if head
➔ 0 ; if tail
Contoh: Y : sum of the upturned face after rolling
7 dices
Random Discrete: distinct / separable value
Variable
Continuous/any value in interval
 Is it discrete or continuous?

Exact mass of a random animal selected at the

Jurug Zoo
Year when a random student was born
Number of ants born tomorrow
Exact winning time mens 100m dash 2016
olimpics
winning time mens 100m dash 2016 olimpics
rounded to the nearest hundreds
 Distribution of random variables

Distribusi binomial
Disticnt data
Finite sample
n trials
Distribusi Poisson
Distinct data
Infinite sample
population
Distribusi normal
continuous data
Symetric distribution/bell shape
 Binomial Distribution

Two coins are tossed

The possibility of fall are:
Angka , gambar
Angka, angka
Gambar, angka
Gambar gambar
GG GA AA
¼ 2/4 1/4
The probability of having head of two coins
being:

The discrete probability distribution:

 Other example

The number of upturned head when a coin

tossed 3 times
The possibility of fall are:
A,G,G
A, A, G
A, A, A

The probability of having head of a coin tossed

3 times being:

The discrete probability distribution:

Other example: 4 coins tossed at once. How is the
distribution of having the variety numbers of head

Jumlah kemungkinan jatuh:

A. Jml kemungkinan jatuh tanpa head:
B. Jml kemungkinan jatuh dengan 1 head:
C. Jml kemungkinan jatuh dengan 2 head:
D. Jml kemungkinan jatuh dengan 3 head:
E. Jml kemungkinan jatuh semuanya head:

The probability of having head(s) of 4 coins

tossed at once being:
Compare this values with the binomial
expansion:

Jika p = q
Maka distribusinya simetris!
Contoh tidak simetris:
Sejumlah bola dengan 3 warna dicampur masing
masing warna sejumlah X.
4 buah bola diambil bersamaan
Bagaimanakah probabilitas mendapatkan salah satu
warna sejumlah 0, 1, 2, 3 dan 4 (misal warna merah)
p = 1/3
q = 2/3
diambil 4, maka n = 4
 Distribusi kumulatif binomial

Probabilitas P, dari sebuah kejadian akan sukses

tepat r kali pada n percobaan adalah

r (n−r)
Pr = nCrp q
Probabilitas P, dari sebuah kejadian akan sukses
setidaknya r kali pada n percobaan adalah
r =n
Pr = 1 −  Cpq n r
r =n−r ' +1
r (n−r)

Contoh: 3 = 4-r’+1
 Poisson distribution

Distinct data
Infinite sample
population
Characteristic:
Only the occurrence of an event can be
counted. Its non-occurrence cannot because it
has no physical meaning
Therefore the total number of events n cannot
be measured ➔ binomial distribution is not
precisely applicable
 Poisson distribution

Characteristic:
Useful when n is extremely large and p very
small
 shruti Ini Meiryo Ini
Poisson distribution

Series distribusi poisson:

− −  − − 
2
− 
3 4
e ,e  ,e ,e ,e ,
2! 3! 4!
e = bilangan natural
 = mean frequency of occurrence
General term of series:
− e:bil natural 2.71828
e  r
: mean frequency of occurrence
Pr = r:
r!
Mean :  = np

Standard deviation:
 = np
Contoh soal
 Suatu Batching plant memproduksi campuran
beton, dan produksinya itu 10% cacat atau
tidak memenuhi kualifikasi beton. Hitunglah
probabilitasnya jika suatu sampel yang terdiri
dari 10 specimen beton diambil secara random,
pasti dua akan cacat.
− r
 p = 10% =0,1 e 
 n=10 P= r
  = np = 0,1 x 10 = 1 r!
 r=2

 Pr = (e-1 x 12 )/ 2!
 Pr = 0,184