GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 27, NO.

16, PAGES 2389-2392, AUGUST 15, 2000

Volcanic eruption prediction: Magma chamber physicsfrom

gravity and deformation measurements
Hazel Rymer and Glyn Williams-Jones
VolcanoDynamics
Group,Department
of EarthSciences,
TheOpenUniversity,
WaltonHall,MiltonKeynes,
UK

Abstract. One of the greatestremainingproblemsin modern of surfacedeformation(the changein edifice volume AVe;
volcanologyis the processby which volcaniceruptionsare Figure 1) can be estimated from ground deformation
triggered.It is generallyacceptedthat eruptionsare preceded measurements simply by integratingthe observedheight
by magma intrusion [Sigurdssonand Sparks, 1978]. The changesoverthe areaof deformation. The Mogi [Mogi, 1958]
degreeof interactionbetweenpreviouslypondedmagmain a model relates AVe to the change in sub-surfacemagma
chamberand newly intruded magma determinesthe nature chamber volume (AVch) assuming the country rocks to
and rate of eruptionand also the chemistryof eruptedlavas behave elastically and the magma chamber to behave as
and shallowdykes.Here, we investigatethe physicsof this thoughit is a sphericalpressuresourcewhosedepthis large
interaction.Volcano monitoring at its most effective is a comparedwith its radius. Without any other information,
synergy between basic science and risk assessment,while grounddeformationprovidesno indicationof the processes
hazard mitigation depends on reliable interpretationof taking place inside the magma chamber. Variations in the
eruptionprecursors.The simple and much usedMogi model accelerationdue to gravity can also be monitoredon active
relates ground deformation (Ah) to changes in magma volcanoesand by integratingover the area of variations,the
chamber volume. Gravity changes (Ag) combined with changein sub-surface magmamass(AMm) can be quantified
grounddeformationprovideinformationon magmachamber [Berrino et al., 1992]. Simultaneousgravity and deformation
mass changes. Our new models predict how the Ag/Ah measurementsprovide an estimate of AMm and AVch so
gradientwill evolve as a volcano developsfrom a state of changesin the averagedensityof the magmachambermay be
dormancythrough unrest into a state of explosiveactivity. deduced,providing insightsinto the processof vesiculation
Thus by simultaneous measurement of deformation and (densitydecrease)or crystallisation(densityincrease).
gravity at a few key stations,magmachamberprocessescan Deviationsfrom the free air gradient(FAG) are due to sub-
be identified prior to the onset of conventionaleruption surfacemass changes(Figure 2). When the density of the
precursors. magmachamberis taken into account,the Bouguercorrected
free air gradient(BCFAG) can be calculated.The value of the
Introduction BCFAG dependson the model used- sphericalsourceor slab
[Berrinoet al., 1992;Rymeret al., 1995]. Data plottingabove
Conventional(high-precision) micro-gravitymonitoringat the BCFAG on a Ag/Ah graph (Figure 2) reflect density
active volcanoesis usedto identify shallowprocesses within increaseswhereas data plotting below the BCFAG reflect
the feederconduitusingrepeatedAg andAh measurements at density decreases.There is an interestingarea between the
a network of stations in and around the active crater or caldera
FAG and the BCFAG where during inflation there are mass
[Rymer,1994; Rymeret al., 1998a,b]. There are obviousrisks increases and density decreases and this is crucial to
associated with this practiceand recenthigh profile casesof understanding the physicsof magma chamberprocessesand
volcanologists being killed emphasisethis point [Baxterand the detectionof eruptionpre precursors.
Gresham, 1997; œujii and Nakada, 1999]. Monitoring
volcanoesfrom a safe distancecan entail reducedsignal
Discussion
strength in the data. Other eruption pre-cursorssuch as
tremors, gas flux/chemistry and temperaturefluctuations Micro-gravity and ground deformation surveys are
reflect relatively shallow processeswhich are a sourceof frequentlycarriedout in the regionof maximumuplift, central
noisein Ag/Ahdatain the activeventregion.Processes within to the volcanic region (zone A, Figure 1), in order to
the magma chamber,which occur monthsor years before investigaterelatively shallowsub surfaceprocesses.However
conventionalpre-cursors,are interpretedhere from Ag/Ah sensitive instrumentation can detect the small off axis
data which may be obtainedat somedistancefrom the active variationsaway from the active region (zone B, Figure 1).
vent, where the signal to noise ratio is enhanced.Hazard The advantageof making observationsoff axis is that the
mitigation is thus greatly facilitatedby the additionaltime signalto noise ratio in the data is considerablyincreasedas
afforded.
shallow volcanic effects within the edifice (vesiculation
cycleswithin the feederconduit,fracturingetc.; Rymeret al.
Observations [1998b]) are reduced.Anotherpotentialsourceof uncertainty
is the variation in groundwaterlevels. The effects of water
Grounddeformationmeasurements havelongbeenusedto table fluctuationscan be minimisedby measuringgravity at
monitor active volcanoes[Murray et al., 1995]. The volume stationslocatedon crystallinebedrock[dachensand Roberts,

Copyright2000 by theAmericanGeophysical
Union 1985] while seasonal variations in groundwater can be
reducedby making measurements at approximatelythe same
Papernumber1999GL011293. time every year [Rymeret al. 1995; Arnet et al., 1997]. It is
0094-8276/00/1999GL011293505.00 thereforepossibleto detectsubtlechangeswithin a Mogi-type
_

2389
2390 RYMER AND WILLIAMS-JONES: MAGMA
Uplifted Zone
A
B•• • observableat the surfaceas a Ag/Ah relationshipfalling into
Original ground surface
/ eruptive activity [Woods and Koyaguchi, 1994] and has
Mogi Source
///
Figure 1. To a first approximation,a magmareservoircan be
modelledas a sphericalbody. If the depthis large compared
with its radius, the gravitationaleffect is that of a point
source.The essenceof the Mogi model is that dilation of a
point sourcein an elastichalf spacecausesdeformationat the
surface,which will dependon the amountof dilation and the
elastic propertiesof the medium. By insertingmeasuredor
estimatedvaluesfor the elasticpropertiesof the surrounding
rock, the amount of ground deformationmeasuredat the
surface by techniquessuch as GPS, SAR interferometry,
altimetry or levelling, can thereforebe used to estimatethe
changein sub-surfacemagma reservoirvolume (AVch). The
largestgrounddeformationchangesare observedin zone A,
but measurable effects are also seen in distal zones such as B.
Gravity measurements may also be made at thesepointsand
when combinedwith grounddeformationmeasurements, this
is an extremelypowerfulmethodfor investigatingsub-surface
densitychanges.Quantifyingthe magnitudeand rate of these
changes provides a means to detect eruption pre-cursors
within the magma chamber,before the magma begins it's
journey throughconduitsto the surface,thus affording more
time for hazardmitigationand evacuation.
magma
chamber
of 10• kgto 10•2kgat2-5kmdepth
atupto Figure 2. During periodsof inflation,increasingelevation
3.5 km and 10 km horizontaldistance,respectively.Although,
the Mogi model represents an oversimplified magma
chamber,manypublishedgeophysical dataareconsistent with
this type of source[Berrino et al., 1992; Arnet et al., 1997;
Avallone et al., 1999]. Here we present two end member
models that illustrate how, by observing density changes
within the magmachamber,the hazardpotentialof a volcanic
systemcanbe determined.
Intruding magmawith a relatively low Reynoldsnumber
(low velocity, high viscosity), as illustrated in model 1
(Figure3), will interactvery little with the chambermagma.
There will be an overall mass increasein the system,which
would be measurableat the surfaceas a gravity increase.The
intrusionwould producesome ground deformationand the
Ag/Ah gradientwould fall into region 1 or alongthe BCFAG
(Figure2) indicatingan overallincreasein density(region 1)
or no densitychange(BCFAG) within the magma chamber.
Constantor increasingdensity within a magma chamberis
indicativeof a low potentialhazardsystem,as magmais not
able to rise. In a closedsystem,the chamberwill eventually
stagnate,but if magmapressureexceedsthe local lithostatic
pressure,dykesmay form whichcanin somecaseseventually
feed lava eruptions.
CHAMBER PHYSICS FROM AG/AH
Model 2 assumes an intruding magma with a high
Reynolds number which will interact with the chamber
magma,heatingit and inducingvesiculation(Figure 3). This
resultsin a net subsurfacemassincreaseand densitydecrease
region 2, between the FAG and BCFAG (Figure 2). In this
case, the interaction [Sparks et al., 1980] between the
intruding magma and the older magma is critically, more
pervasivethan in model 1. Magma mixing and mingling will
cause significant bubble formation. The build up of gas
pressurewithin a magmachamberis an essentialprecursorto
considerablehazardimplications.
We infer from these models that as a volcano develops
from a stateof dormancythroughunrestinto eruptiveactivity,
that the Ag/Ah gradientwill evolve away from the BCFAG
towardsthe FAG. The applicationof this to hazardwarningis
as follows. As the gradientvariesfrom region 1 towardsthe
Ag
--- BCFAG
FAG
Ah
• '',•-,/ Replenish/
Shallow
• • • • •p•ersistent
• Explosive
•n Eruptions
Gas/ F[acmre
Fo•ation
(Ah) is accompaniedby decreasinggravity (negative Ag),
describedby the BCFAG. For the Mogi model and for an
infinite Bouguer slab, the relationshipis linear. For other
models(e.g., dyke, sill etc.), the relationshipis not linear,but
Ag/Ah data will fall betweenthe BCFAG lines for thesetwo
end membermodels.The actualgradientof the BCFAG will
dependon the densityassumedfor the surroundingrock. It
rangesfrom-224gGalm-• to -252gGalm-• fora density
of
2000kgm-3and- 113gGalm-•to-233gGalm-•fora density
of 2700kg m-3fortheslabandspheremodels respectively.
The free air gradient(FAG) is typically-308.6 gGal m-, but
may vary by about 10% dependingon the local terrain and
Bougueranomaly[Rymer, 1994]. Thus the BCFAG is model
dependentandthe FAG shouldalwaysbe measured.Region 1
represents anomalously largegravityincreasesaccompanying
inflationandcouldbeinterpreted in termsof magmaintrusion
increasingthe averagedensityof the magma chamber.Data
falling into region 2 reflect density decreaseand mass
increaseduring inflation (and volume increase)which we
interpretin termsof the build up of gas within the magma
chamber- the most likely trigger processfor an eruption.
Data fallingcloseto theAg line reflectshallowprocessessuch
as magmaand gas fluctuationswithin the feederconduitor
may not even be of immediatevolcanologicalinterest(e.g.,
water table level excursions).
 RYMER AND WILLIAMS-JONES: MAGMA CHAMBER PHYSICS FROM AG/AH 2391

/ \ / \
I
%
I I I
I
/

Figure3. A. Model 1 depictsa low Reynolds numbermagma(relativelylow velocityandhighviscosity) enteringa magma

chamber andnotinteracting
significantly
withthesurrounding
magma.B. Model2 hasthesamemagmamassinfluxasmodel1,
but theReynoldsnumberis higher.In thiscase,the magmainteractswith the surrounding magma,heatingit, andcausing
vesiculation
andexpansion of the chamberIn model1 the Ag/Ahgradientwill fall into region1 of Figure.2; in model2, the
gradientwill fall into region2 of Figure2.

BCFAG, the densityof the magmachamberdecreases(Figure at stationsin regionsA and B, fell into region1 (Figure2). As
2). This would be a result of reduced crystallisationand our modelpredicts,therewas no eruption.Indeed,as data in
increasedbuoyantmelt and vesiclecontent.Once the BCFAG Berrino[1994] show,the gradientactuallyevolved(February
is crossed,the densityof the magmachamberhas decreased 1981 to March 1983) from the BCFAG towardsthe horizontal
below the previousaveragevalue of the chamberand the axis, well within region 1 (Figure 2). This episode was
systembecomesunstable.II is at this stagethat the magma interpretedin terms of intrusioninto a magma chamber
will be able to rise. If there is limited heating, then magma [Berrino eta!., 1984] or mobilisationof the hydrothermal
convectionwithin the chamber(recentlylinked with pulsesof system [Bonafede, 1991]. Our model predictsthat if the
activity at the surface[Kazahayaet al., 1994]) will follow, Ag/Ahgradient
steepens
beyond-220 gGal m-• during
but with excess heating, as gas pressure increases, the inflation an eruption will follow (Table 1). Given the
likelihood of an eruption increases[Woodsand Koyaguchi, considerablehistoryof calderaunrestat Campi Flegrei and
1994]. the increasingpopulationof the region,thereis a vital needto
distinguishbetweenmagmachamberprocesses suchas those
Conclusions presented herein modelsI and2 (Figure3).
Data from Campi Flegrei,Rabauland Long Valley all fall
Target areasare calderasin a state of unrestand large into regionI of our model(Table 1). This is consistent with
compositevolcanoes. An openmagmaticsystemis one that the fact that no eruptionoccurredat thesesites.The Krafia
displayspersistentsurfacemanifestationsranging from a data on the otherhandfall within region2 and are consistent
stablelava lake to explosiveeruptionsandvigorousfumarolic with the eruptionthat followed. The actual value of the
activity.At thesesystemsmeasurements made in regionA BCFAG will dependon the FAG, the Bougueranomalyand
(Figure1) will be dominatedby shallowprocesses.In orderto the densityof the intrusion[Rymer,1994]. Howevereven if
investigateprocesseswithin a Mogi-type source and to thetheoretical
valuesfor theFAG(-308gGalm-•) andthe
increase the signal to noise ratio from this source, BCFAG(-233gGalm-• for a densityof 2700kg m-l) are
measurements mustbe madein regionB. A closedsystemon used,the data from all the publishedexamplesstill fall into
the other hand, has little or no surfaceactivity and therefore the sameregions.
Ag/Ah gradientmeasurements may be made safely in both Simultaneousmeasurements of deformationand gravity at
regionsA and B. A primeexampleof a closedsystemis the a few key stationsmay thereforebe usedto identifymagma
CampiFlegreicaldera(Naples,Italy) whichwascharacterised chamberprocessespriorto the onsetof conventional
eruption
by a bradyseismiccrisis in the early 1980s. The average precursors.The method is expected to find greatest
Ag/Ah gradient
(-213+ 6 gGalm-•)during inflation,
measuredapplicationin regionswherea Mogi type chamberis located
2392 RYMER AND WILLIAMS-JONES: MAGMA CHAMBER PHYSICS FROM AG/AH

Table 1. Summaryof rigorouslydocumentedgravity-height Berrino,G., Gravity changesinducedby height-massvariationsat the

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Period (gGal) (gGalm-1) (gGalm-1) Fujii, T. and S. Nakada, The 15 September1991 pyroclasticflows at
Unzen Volcano (Japan); a flow model for associatedash-cloud
CampeiFlegrei Feb. 1981- -213 _+6 a -290 _ 5 a -220 a surges,J. Volcanol.Geotherm.Res.,89, 159-172, 1999.
Jachens,R. C. and C. W. Roberts, Temporal and areal gravity
Italy Mar.1983 investigationsat Long Valley Caldera, California, J. Geophys.
Rabaul 1973-1985 -216 _+4b -300a -238a Res., 90, 11210-11218, 1985.
PNG
Johnson, G. V., A. Bj6rnsson and S. Sigurdsson, Gravity and
Krafla Jan.-June 1978 -250_+ 20 c -308* _200a elevationchangescausedby magmamovementbeneaththe Krafla
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Acknowledgements. This researchwas supportedby the Royal Rymer, H. Microgravitychangesas a precursorto volcanicactivity,
J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 61, 311-328, 1994.
Society, The Open University ResearchDevelopmentFund and
NERC. We are gratefulto C. A. Locke,J. CassidyandJ. B. Murray Rymer, H., J. Cassidy, C. A. Locke and F. Sigmundsson,Post-
for helpful discussions.
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