COVID19

3rdwavei
scoming.I
sitt
rue?

Dr.R.
Vij
aiKumar
Pul
monologi
st
dr
vij
aipul
mo@y ahoo.
co.
in

Naturalhi storyteachesust hatf orvir

alpandemi cst hatitis
quit
enat ur althatseveralwav eskeepcomi ngoneaf ter
another.It’sanat uralphenomenoni nthebat tl
ebet ween
humansandv ir
uses.Inthissor didsaga,thosewi thpoor
immuni tyandunheal thyli
festylewillperi
sh,andt hosewi t
h
betterimmuni tymaygeti nfectedbutwi llsurvi
ve, andev en
developt hepr otecti
onagai nstthev i
rus.Ont heot herhandt he
vir
uswi llkeepmodi fyi
ngitselfbychangi ngitspr otei
n
str
uct ur
easpar tofapreor dainedschemet oby passt he
defencesy stem ofthehumans.

Timingofwaves:Acrosst
hewor l
d,he2ndwav
t efoll
owedt he
st
1 wav eaf
teragapof5.5mont hs.Eachwavewillbebigger
nd st
thanthepr
eviousone.The2 wav ewasbiggert
han1 wav e
nd
by75%.Howev eri
nIndiat
he2 wav ewas320%biggerand
happenedaft
eragapof7½mont hs.

Whatabout3rdwave?Acr osstheworldthe3rdwav ehappened

alr
eadyinmanycount ri
es(UK2mont hs,I
taly4mont hs,
USA6
rd
months.Indiamaygeti ts3 wav einlateNov emberorearl
y
December .I
twillhi
tthosewhohav enotbeenv acci
nated(t
hat
i
ncludeschildr
enalongwi thadult
s).Howev eriti
sspeculat
ed
thati
nfecti
oninchildrenwillbel
essintensecompar edto
adult
s.

Howtostopthe3rdwave?Thereare6impor
tanti
nter
vent
ions
t
hatneedtobeconsider
ed.1)Vaccinat
easmanypeopleas
possi bleandasqui cklyaspossi bl e(att her ateof1cr ore
peopl eperday )inthenextf ewmont hs.Thi swi llbr i
ngt he
infectionundercont r
ol.Whent he7dayav erageofcases( Test
Posi ti
vityRat eorTPR)i sl esst han5%, weknowt hedi seasei s
undercont rol
.2)Newv irusv ar i
ant sduet omut at i
onwi llkeep
appear ing.Keepi nganey eont hesemut ant sbyGenome
sequenci ngi sv it
al.3)Sur veil
lanceandt estingshoul dbe
pur suedv igorously.Itisi mpor tantt hatt hedat ai sshar edwi t
h
allstakehol ders, sot hatappr opr iateremedi almeasur escan
bet aken.4)Topsci ent i
sts( Epi demi ol
ogi sts, Virol ogists,and
Stat i
sticians)f rom 10maj orNat ionali nst it
ut eshav eal ready
formedagr oup.Const anti nteract ionandshar ingofv i
taldata
andanal ysismusthappenasacont i
nuum t omakef utur i
sti
c
plansandt akeappr opr i
atepol icydeci sions.5)Av erycost
effectivei ntervent i
on, andt hati scont inuet of ollowCOVI D
appr opr i
at ebehav iour( Mask, Soci aldistanci ng, Keepi nghands
cleanwi thsoapandwat erorSani tizers,av oi dingcr owds, and
largesoci algat heri
ng)atl eastf ort henextoney ear. 6)
Investi ncr eatingapr act i
calandv i
ableheal thcar est ructure.
COVI Dpandemi chasexposedourdef icienci es.Heal thcar e
hasnotr eceivedadequat eat tent ionf orsev er aly ear s.Number
ofdoct orsar eless, 9per10, 000popul at i
on( UKhas28, USA
has26, andGer manyhas42) , numberofnur sesar el ess15
per10, 000( UKhas150, Ger many132, andUSAhas85)

HealthyLif estyl
e:COVI Dpandemi chasshownust he
i
mpor tanceofhav i
ngast rongimmuni ty.Peoplehavea
mistakeni deat hatimmuni tycanbebui lti
naweekort woby
consumi ngcer t
ainfoodi tems.Not hingisfarfrom t
ruth.
Buil
dingast rongbodydef encesystem takesseveralmont hs,
byfollowingaheal thylifestyle(r
egularexerci
se,atleastforan
houraday ,avoidingbei ngov er
weight,eati
ngaheal t
hy
bal
anceddi et,goodsl eepf or7to8hour s,avoi
dingstress,
shunningt obaccoi nal lforms, bei
ngmoder at
ewi t
halcohol )
Lastword:3rdwav eisinevit
abl
e, andwi l
lcertainl
ycome
soonerthanlater,butwecancount eri
twithst epsbasedon
sci
ence.Howev eraconcer t
edeffortfr
om pol i
cymaker s,
admini
strator
sandsci ent
istsi
simper ati
ve.Wehav elearnt
val
uablealbeitbitt
erlessonsfr
om t helasttwowav es,which
r
d
canserveust obepr eparedbetterforthe3 wav e.