UNIVERSITI TEKNOLOGI MARA (UiTM) SELANGOR, KAMPUS PUNCAK ALAM

COURSE NAME: HOSPITAL MANAGEMENT

COURSE CODE: HSM541

ASSIGNMENT 1: CASE STUDY (20%)

GROUP NAME LIST:  SAZZWAN NOOR EKHSAN BIN ABD RAHIM

(2020967843)

 MUHAMMAD NABIL BIN NOR AZMAN

(2020967541)

 ABDUL HAKIM ADLI BIN ABDUL MAJID

(2020959363)
GROUP BA2353A
PREPARED FOR MADAM ROHANA BINTI MAT SOM
SUBMISSION DATE 25 JUNE 2021 AT 5.00 P.M

a. Identify the analysis that must be done by Insight Datatech consultants to predict ICU

admission rates at the hospital.

 - Insight Datatech consultants must predict ICU admission rates by accurately measuring ICU

patient volumes and predicting Emergency Department (ED) visits. Historical data on patient

volumes, staffing schedules, and known saturation events must be made available by the hospital

so that a predictive model can be trained. Out to a 3-month time horizon, the model would have

to forecast the weekly inflow of ED patients and the corresponding expected ICU admission

rates.

b. Help the hospital to develop a predictive model that would better predict ED patients’ level.

- To develop the predictive model like forecasting, hospital must start with identifying what is to

be forecast. For example, patient admissions, ED visits, staffing level, or staffing schedule. Those

were common forecasting applications in healthcare. Usually, forecasting is used in healthcare to

make specific decision such as how many outpatients to expect next month. The type of

forecasting model that can be used in to predict ED patients’ level is Time Series Model where

the data are forecasted. However, this model relies on historical data to make accurate

predictions.

- Once identified, hospital can gather all historical data and begin to test with various time series

data forecasting methods. Example of Time Series Data forecasting methods like Autoregressive

Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Exponential Smoothing or Time Series Regression. The

primary evaluation metrics that hospital can uses were Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean

Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) at various time horizons. This metrics can be calculated by

carrying out-of-sample validation data into Time Series Models to see how accurate the model

was at predicting future ED visits using historical data. Out-of-sample validation refers to the use

of new data that was not included in the model's initial dataset. This is the best way to see how
 good a model is at predicting results on new data that has not been seen before is to test its

predictive performance.

- Then, hospital need to analyze the data to make sense of the forecast and ensure that results seem

appropriate. After implementing and validating that results, the hospital must determine which

factors had the greatest impact on ED visits these time series forecasts. Forecasts must be

segmented by various hospital locations, patient diagnosis groups, patient acuity at admission,

and the day and time of patient arrival.

- To generating sub-forecasts for each patient segment, the use of the ensemble method for overall

forecasts is quite effective. Ensemble modelling is a process in which many different models are

developed to predict an outcome, either using a variety of modelling algorithms or different

training data sets. The sub-forecasts that ended up allowed the hospital to determine which patient

groups were responsible for the most variation in ED arrival rates, as well as how much of that

variability could be accurately forecasted within each segment.

- Finally, the hospital must continually monitor and adapt the forecast to ensure that forecast

accuracy increase over time. If the hospital can accurately predict patient volumes, particularly in

critical departments like the emergency department and intensive care unit, hospital can

implement mitigation strategies to ensure that patients receive the best possible care under all

operational conditions. The application of a predictive model to patient volumes has the potential

to improve both hospital efficiency and patient outcomes.

c. Create a data set with 5 items that can be used to conduct an analysis of the issue.
- Staffing Levels

- Saturation Events

- Staffing Schedule

- Patient Volumes

- Emergency Department (ED) Visiting Frequency